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US inflation rose 3.7% in September, more than economists expected and still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, as the central bank weighs whether to hike interest rates again by year’s end.

The reading for the Consumer Price Index a closely watched measure of inflation that tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services matches the reading in August, and is slightly above the 3.6% advance that economists expected, according to data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Thursday.

On a monthly basis, inflation slowed to 0.4% from 0.6% in August, partly because of lower pressure from energy prices.

However, core CPI a number that excludes volatile food and energy prices and serves as a closely watched gauge among policymakers for long-term trends held steady at 0.3% month to month and rose 4.1% from a year ago, in line with expectations.

Though September’s CPI is also a cooldown from inflation’s 9.1% peak in June 2022, it still remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal. Stock futures dropped ahead of the market opening as traders increased their bets of another rate hike to around 50%, up from 30% earlier this week.

“The bigger picture is that the trend is still quite encouraging, but the fight continues,” said Olu Sonola, head of US regional economics at Fitch Ratings in New York. “They [Fed officials] may now want to extend the pause to December, given the recent increase in long-term rates.”

The gasoline index’s 2.1% advance was also a large contributor to the CPI, the data showed, though the federal agency said shelter’s 0.2% increase accounted for over half of the increase.

Gasoline experienced an eye-watering 10.6% increase last month, when AAA figures showed that the average price for a gallon of gas was $3.85.

As of Thursday, a gallon of gas in the US averages $3.65, according to AAA.

While many investors had been willing to look past the volatile energy numbers, a surprisingly resilient labor market has some worried that inflation could be more stubborn.

September’s employment report revealed that the US economy added a whopping 336,000 jobs last month — an unexpected surge that contradicts the notion the Fed may tamp down its aggressive tightening regime.

The blowout number was nearly double the 170,000 jobs economists had expected, and also sharply higher than an upwardly revised 227,000 jobs added in August, according to fresh data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week.

The news sent yields on US Treasury bonds to their highest levels in 16 years and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average into the red for 2023.

Since inflation hit a four-decade peak last summer, the central bank has worked to bring the stubborn figure down by hiking rates another 25 basis points to a 22-year high in August in hopes of an economic slowdown.

The benchmark federal funds rate currently sits between 5.25% and 5.5%. Last month, Fed officials unanimously decided to hold the record-high rate steady for the second time in six policy meetings so far this year.

But thanks to a strong labor market, the US economy has avoided a downturn, and even the Fed has said its no longer predicting the economy will slip into a recession by the end of the year.

“We must wait for more data to see if this is just a blip or if there is something more fundamental driving the increase such as higher rent increases in larger cities offsetting softer increases in smaller cities,” said US Bank of America Securities economist Stephen Juneau.

“When deciding whether to raise rates one last time this year, the FOMC will be asking whether inflation needs another nudge or if its getting to 2% on its own. Its increasingly looking like the latter,” NerdWallet data analyst Elizabeth Renter told The Post.

“The Fed, astheyreall too happy to remind us, is laser focused on getting inflation down to 2%.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said central bankers will be taking a data-dependent approach moving forward, leaving more interest rate hikes before years end up in the air.

Markets were spooked ahead of the jobs report, falling more than 1% when the Labor Department released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, which showed job openings increased to 9.61 million in August up from 8.9 million in July.

With Post wires.

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Rishi Sunak says migrants going to Ireland shows Rwanda scheme is working as a deterrent

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Rishi Sunak says migrants going to Ireland shows Rwanda scheme is working as a deterrent

Migrants travelling to Ireland after arriving in the UK on small boats is a sign the Rwanda scheme is already working as a deterrent, Rishi Sunak has said. 

Sky News’s Trevor Phillips asked the prime minister if migrants finding their way to Ireland was a sign the UK was “exporting the problem”.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister Micheal Martin said on Friday the threat of being deported to Rwanda had caused an influx of migrants to cross the border from Northern Ireland into the Republic.

In his interview – which will air in full on Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips show tomorrow at 8.30am – Mr Sunak was asked about the comments, saying they illustrated “the deterrent is… already having an impact”.

“People are worried about coming here and that demonstrates exactly what I’m saying,” he said. “If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay there, they are much less likely to come, and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”

Downing Street on Friday rebuffed claims the Rwanda plan was already influencing movements into Ireland, saying it was too early to jump to conclusions on its impact.

Mr Sunak said the comments also illustrate “that illegal migration is a global challenge”.

“[That] is why you’re seeing multiple countries talk about doing third country partnerships, looking at novel ways to solve this problem, and I believe will follow where the UK has led,” he said.

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Mr Martin told The Daily Telegraph that the policy was already affecting Ireland, as people were “fearful” of staying in the UK.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister said: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”

Mr Martin, who is also Ireland’s foreign minister, said asylum seekers were looking “to get sanctuary here and within the European Union as opposed to the potential of being deported to Rwanda”.

Read more:
Anti-immigrant camp in Dublin ‘not about racism’, residents say

Danger for Sunak if new Act does not stop boats


Jon Craig - Chief political correspondent

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

On the Safety of Rwanda Bill, which finally became law this week after so-called “ping pong” between the Commons and the House of Lords, Mr Sunak said a deterrent was the only way to stop the boats.

“We did just have an important moment this week that in spite of all the opposition from the Labour Party we have passed the Rwanda bill through Parliament in the face of enormous opposition,” he told Sir Trevor.

“That’s important because the only way to fully solve this problem is to have a deterrent, so that if people come to a country illegally, they’re not able to stay, and we can return them.”

Refugee groups in Ireland admit that the threat of being deported to Rwanda is, as the Irish government claims, driving migrants across the border from Northern Ireland into the Republic.

Nick Henderson of the Irish Refugee Council told Sky News: “As long as there is a Rwanda policy and the Illegal Migration Act which states that somebody can’t lodge an application for asylum in the UK and have it considered if they enter in an irregular way, it’s going to have knock-on effects on Ireland, that’s plain to see.”

Now that the Rwanda legislation has finally become law, Tory MPs believe the PM can no longer blame his political opponents in parliament, in the Commons and the Lords, if it fails to stop the boats.

The danger for Mr Sunak, even his supporters concede, is that even if planes do take off for Rwanda this summer and some migrants head for Ireland, it may not stop the tide of more illegal migrants crossing the channel.

His comments came after Ireland’s justice minister told a committee of the Irish Parliament she estimates more than 80% of migrants in the Republic had crossed from Northern Ireland.

The UK’s prime minister told Trevor Phillips his focus “is on the United Kingdom and securing our border”.

Read more:
What impact will bill have on immigration?
Sunak staking premiership on Rwanda flights plan

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The Safety of Rwanda Bill became an Act on Thursday, with Number 10 announcing the same day that the first deportation plane had been booked.

After a number of setbacks and delays, the bill passed in parliament earlier this week and then received royal assent, with Home Secretary James Cleverly hailing the approval as a “landmark moment in our plan to stop the boats”.

Anticipating the bill’s passage, the prime minister earlier this week promised the first flights would take off in 10 to 12 weeks – “come what may”.

Watch the full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips at 8.30am

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UK

Rishi Sunak says migrants going to Ireland shows Rwanda scheme is working as a deterrent

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Rishi Sunak says migrants going to Ireland shows Rwanda scheme is working as a deterrent

Migrants travelling to Ireland after arriving in the UK on small boats is a sign the Rwanda scheme is already working as a deterrent, Rishi Sunak has said. 

Sky News’s Trevor Phillips asked the prime minister if migrants finding their way to Ireland was a sign the UK was “exporting the problem”.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister Micheal Martin said on Friday the threat of being deported to Rwanda had caused an influx of migrants to cross the border from Northern Ireland into the Republic.

In his interview – which will air in full on Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips show tomorrow at 8.30am – Mr Sunak was asked about the comments, saying they illustrated “the deterrent is… already having an impact”.

“People are worried about coming here and that demonstrates exactly what I’m saying,” he said. “If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay there, they are much less likely to come, and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”

Downing Street on Friday rebuffed claims the Rwanda plan was already influencing movements into Ireland, saying it was too early to jump to conclusions on its impact.

Mr Sunak said the comments also illustrate “that illegal migration is a global challenge”.

“[That] is why you’re seeing multiple countries talk about doing third country partnerships, looking at novel ways to solve this problem, and I believe will follow where the UK has led,” he said.

👉 Tap here to follow Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts 👈

Mr Martin told The Daily Telegraph that the policy was already affecting Ireland, as people were “fearful” of staying in the UK.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister said: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”

Mr Martin, who is also Ireland’s foreign minister, said asylum seekers were looking “to get sanctuary here and within the European Union as opposed to the potential of being deported to Rwanda”.

Read more:
Anti-immigrant camp in Dublin ‘not about racism’, residents say

Danger for Sunak if new Act does not stop boats


Jon Craig - Chief political correspondent

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

On the Safety of Rwanda Bill, which finally became law this week after so-called “ping pong” between the Commons and the House of Lords, Mr Sunak said a deterrent was the only way to stop the boats.

“We did just have an important moment this week that in spite of all the opposition from the Labour Party we have passed the Rwanda bill through Parliament in the face of enormous opposition,” he told Sir Trevor.

“That’s important because the only way to fully solve this problem is to have a deterrent, so that if people come to a country illegally, they’re not able to stay, and we can return them.”

Refugee groups in Ireland admit that the threat of being deported to Rwanda is, as the Irish government claims, driving migrants across the border from Northern Ireland into the Republic.

Nick Henderson of the Irish Refugee Council told Sky News: “As long as there is a Rwanda policy and the Illegal Migration Act which states that somebody can’t lodge an application for asylum in the UK and have it considered if they enter in an irregular way, it’s going to have knock-on effects on Ireland, that’s plain to see.”

Now that the Rwanda legislation has finally become law, Tory MPs believe the PM can no longer blame his political opponents in parliament, in the Commons and the Lords, if it fails to stop the boats.

The danger for Mr Sunak, even his supporters concede, is that even if planes do take off for Rwanda this summer and some migrants head for Ireland, it may not stop the tide of more illegal migrants crossing the channel.

His comments came after Ireland’s justice minister told a committee of the Irish Parliament she estimates more than 80% of migrants in the Republic had crossed from Northern Ireland.

The UK’s prime minister told Trevor Phillips his focus “is on the United Kingdom and securing our border”.

Read more:
What impact will bill have on immigration?
Sunak staking premiership on Rwanda flights plan

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

The Safety of Rwanda Bill became an Act on Thursday, with Number 10 announcing the same day that the first deportation plane had been booked.

After a number of setbacks and delays, the bill passed in parliament earlier this week and then received royal assent, with Home Secretary James Cleverly hailing the approval as a “landmark moment in our plan to stop the boats”.

Anticipating the bill’s passage, the prime minister earlier this week promised the first flights would take off in 10 to 12 weeks – “come what may”.

Watch the full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips at 8.30am

Continue Reading

UK

Tory MP Dan Poulter defects to Labour over NHS ‘chaos’

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Tory MP Dan Poulter defects to Labour over NHS 'chaos'

Conservative MP and former health minister Dan Poulter has defected to Labour.

The MP for Suffolk Central and Ipswich North, with a majority of 23,321 at the last election, has indicated he is not planning to stand at the next general election.

The defection was revealed in an article on The Observer website, in which the part-time GP outlined why he was switching parties.

He said: “The chaos of today’s fragmented patchwork of community addiction services – making A&E the default location for people to get treatment and help – has added pressure to an already overstretched service.

“The mental toll of a service stretched close to breaking point is not confined to patients and their families. It also weighs heavily on my NHS colleagues who are unable to deliver the right care in a system that simply no longer works for our patients.

“It is this which has led me today to have resigned from the Conservative party to focus on my work as a doctor and to support Keir Starmer.”

He told The Observer the Conservatives had become “a nationalist party of the right” in the last eight years.

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“It is not to say all [Tory] MPs are like that,” he said.

“There are good MPs, but it feels that the party is ever moving rightwards, ever presenting a more nationalist position.”

The mental health doctor sent his resignation to the prime minister Rishi Sunak, saying: “After deep reflection and much heart-searching, I have decided, in all professional conscience, that I can no longer continue as a member of the Conservative Party.”

The Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer celebrated his defection on social media.

“It’s fantastic to welcome Dr Dan Poulter MP to today’s changed Labour Party,” he said in a post on X.

“It’s time to end the Conservative chaos, turn the page, and get Britain’s future back. I’m really pleased that Dan has decided to join us on this journey.”

Pic: Danny Lawson/PA
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to the village of Cawood, Selby, North Yorkshire, to set out new plans for the first ever government-backed Rural Crime Strategy to tackle the issues blighting communities outside of Britain's towns and cities. Picture date: Tuesday April 23, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS Labour. Photo credit should read: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
Image:
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he was “really pleased” to welcome Dr Poulter to his party. File pic: PA

Sky’s Jon Craig called the defection a “disastrous blow for the Conservatives and a massive propaganda coup for Labour.”

“Dr Poulter’s defection means the Commons majority of 80, won by Boris Johnson in December 2019, is now just 41, roughly half what it was three-and-a-half years ago,” he added.

“But more than the terrible numbers, bad as they are, it is his threat to support Labour on the NHS in the run-up to the general election that will alarm the Conservatives.”

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Wes Streeting, Labour’s shadow health secretary, said in a tweet: “Proud to welcome Dr Dan Poulter MP to the @UKLabour Party.

“As a frontline clinician, he’s seen the damage that 14 years of Conservative government have done to our NHS.

“Delighted to have his support and look forward to working with him, especially on mental health reform.”

A Conservative Party spokesperson responded to the resignation by saying: “For the people of Central Suffolk and North Ipswich this will be disappointing news. What Dan says is wrong as Sir Keir Starmer has no plan for our NHS.

“Under the Conservatives we are raising NHS funding to a record £165 billion a year, helping it recover from the effects of the pandemic and driving forward its first ever long-term workforce plan so that we train the doctors and nurses we need for the future in our country.

“Thanks to our plan, we have already virtually eliminated the longest waits and overall waiting lists have fallen by 200,000 in the last five months – and we will go further to make sure everyone gets the world-class care they need.

“This stands in stark contrast to the Welsh NHS – run into the ground by the Welsh Labour Government over the last 25 years which has waiting lists and waiting times way beyond what is being delivered in England.”

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