Oregon-Washington was a true classic, the Big Ten’s best haven’t been truly challenged and more from Week 7
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
The term “instant classic” gets thrown around too much these days. Sure, we’re occasionally gifted moments we instantly recognize as something truly life-altering as they’re happening — like every cutaway to Taylor Swift during an NFL broadcast — but most “instant classics” are just run-of-the-mill entertainment — consumed, enjoyed and forgotten.
Washington and Oregon‘s showdown Saturday though? That’s one to remember.
The Huskies won — or, at least, they survived 36-33. The Ducks lost — or, at least, they ran out of time.
Michael Penix Jr. delivered a touchdown throw to Rome Odunze with 1:38 to play to secure the victory and ensconce himself at the front of the Heisman race.
Bo Nix delivered one of the truly great second-half performances by a QB who ultimately lost, completing 20-of-24 passes for 221 yards, but couldn’t connect on two fourth-down tries deep in Huskies territory.
The game featured six lead changes, 19 of 21 drives offered the offense a chance to take a lead, and Oregon’s fate was only sealed by a missed kick that would have sent the game to overtime.
In 10 months, these two teams will move to the Big Ten and, by rule, stop being fun and start focusing on punts. Thank the football gods we still got Saturday.
There will be so many decisions left to critique. Oregon coach Dan Lanning chose to go for it on fourth down deep in Washington territory twice, and failed both times. He went for it on fourth again with a chance to salt away the game just past midfield. That failed, too, and set up the Huskies’ winning score.
There will be so many what-ifs. Would Penix have shredded the Oregon secondary to the tune of 302 yards and four TDs, including that winner, had the Ducks not seen both starting corners injured on the same play? Or perhaps it might’ve been more had Jalen McMillan not been sidelined early for the Huskies.
ABSOLUTE. SCENES. #GoHuskies x #PurpleReign pic.twitter.com/hUvrto6zO7
— Washington Athletics (@UWAthletics) October 14, 2023
There will be moments when Lanning wakes up in the middle of the night and wonders why he was so cocky on those fourth-down calls, but never took a shot at the end zone on that final, fateful drive.
There will be replays of the game when future generations sit back in awe at Bucky Irving‘s tenacity and Kalen DeBoer’s offensive genius and Odunze’s ridiculous athleticism — and they’ll ask themselves, what the heck is the deal with Oregon’s uniforms? Was that a cookies-and-cream aesthetic or did the equipment guy accidentally throw a Bic pen in with the wash? Anyway, Irving and DeBoer and Odunze are all good.
There will be so many more twists and turns in the story because this was but a chapter for two heavyweights, with each still facing a chorus of ranked foes before a possible rematch in the Pac-12 championship game.
And that would be the perfect send-off for this weird, beautiful, ridiculous conference. For all the slings and arrows and Larry Scotts the Pac-12 has endured for much of the playoff era, its final season looks to be one for the ages, and Oregon and Washington certainly delivered the goods Saturday. It’s a rivalry that has fought its way to the top of college football — 13 lead changes, 38 drives with the score within one possession in the past two games — and it’s a matchup between two Heisman-caliber QBs and two playoff-caliber teams that truly belong in the spotlight.
Will a Big Ten contender be challenged?
Michigan won in a rout Saturday.
We could’ve typed that sentence in any of the past seven weeks, and we probably will write it again in the next few. Heck, we could’ve scribbled it onto a note card back in July, sealed it in an envelope and locked it inside an uncrackable safe, then opened it again Saturday afternoon to exactly zero fanfare at our prophetic brilliance. The Wolverines’ dominance is the least surprising development of the season.
There’s a good case to be made that Michigan is the country’s best team. The problem with that argument is the lack of anything approaching definitive evidence, thanks to a schedule that has essentially cast the Wolverines as Andy Reid in a 1970s punt, pass and kick competition.
50 years ago today, Andy Reid was a head and shoulders above the rest of his punt, pass, and kick competition ?@Chiefs pic.twitter.com/Yi992ibZ4O
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) December 13, 2021
Saturday’s blowout came against Indiana, but that doesn’t matter. It looked the same against ECU and UNLV, Nebraska and Minnesota. The best team Michigan has played thus far might be Rutgers. The biggest challenge the Wolverines have faced so far might’ve been tying their shoes.
It’s not Michigan’s fault, of course, that two-thirds of the Big Ten is made up of teams that should be wearing red Starfleet uniforms — just cannon fodder for the big stars.
And it’s only partially Michigan’s fault the nonconference slate is so bad. Who could’ve foreseen Bowling Green failing to provide a true test? (Don’t answer that.)
It’s not even really Michigan’s fault that its wins vs. such overmatched competition have been so dull. It’s partially slow starts, partially boredom, and for the first three Saturdays of the season, partially because their head coach was suspended and used that time to put the finishing touches on his YA novel about a magical pair of time-traveling khakis sewn with enchanted threads by L.L. Bean himself.
The real story of Michigan’s season requires a deeper dive into the text. J.J. McCarthy has genuinely blossomed into an all-around star at quarterback. He entered Saturday leading the nation in Total QBR, and added to his tally against Indiana, throwing for three touchdowns and averaging 13 yards per pass. The ground game remains strong with Blake Corum treating end zones like Kevin Hart treats movies — he’s in all of them. The defense hasn’t allowed multiple touchdowns in a game yet. The analytics all suggest Michigan’s dominance is noteworthy, with most metrics suggesting the Wolverines have been the year’s most impressive team — that is, if watching LeBron dunk on a team full of second-graders is impressive.
The narrative isn’t markedly different for Michigan’s archrival Ohio State, either. Ohio State thumped Purdue on Saturday 41-7. Yes, the Buckeyes have a win over Notre Dame — on the road, in ugly, low-scoring fashion — but the list of teams who’ve done that over the past two years includes other luminaries like … Marshall and Stanford. The Buckeyes have a playmaker in receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but the rest of the offense has been like the latter seasons of “The Walking Dead” — occasionally fun, but mostly we’re just watching out of obligation.
And honestly, that all sounds a lot like Penn State, which hosted UMass for homecoming on Saturday, in a game in which the Minutemen played the role unsuspecting insect flying leisurely across the Pennsylvania Turnpike, intersecting with the Nittany Lions’ 18-wheeler to the tune of a 63-0 thrashing. Penn State has won every game by at least 17 points, and has something approaching a signature with a shutout of Iowa — but it’s also worth recalling that Iowa had given up offense in September as part of an intermittent fasting routine. Meanwhile, Penn State’s vaunted tailbacks have been far from electric so far this year, and reporters are openly wondering why James Franklin doesn’t let his QB just chuck it deep on every play like a drunk guy playing Madden. Is that a recipe for the playoff? Maybe!
The Ohio State-Penn State dilemma at least will be settled next week when the two face off in Columbus. After that, we’ll know for certain who Michigan’s true competition for a Big Ten title and a playoff berth might be.
But it’ll still be another month before we see Michigan play anyone likely to provide much of a test.
So, unless you’ve got yourself a magical pair of time-traveling khakis, the real answers on Michigan’s ceiling will have to wait a while longer.
It’s a game about nothing
Nick Saban offered a lecture this week on “the importance of nothing.”
Wise words from Nick Saban and “the importance of nothing” ? https://t.co/PogCmbjUhm pic.twitter.com/tBhG2UzfXu
— Alabama Crimson Tide | AL.com (@aldotcomTide) October 12, 2023
The point, he said, was that even the most talented players are entitled to nothing, and that success only comes when you meet your potential.
We assume there’s some real genius in this lesson because Saban is a football genius and because we liked the pitch when George Costanza gave it in the 1990s, too.
Alabama did just enough nothing Saturday to escape Arkansas, 24-21. It was hardly an impressive win, but it was the type of game in which Saban’s subtle touches made all the difference (and also the type of game where Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos will probably leave his “out of office” autoreply up for a while).
Example: Jalen Milroe finished just 10-of-21 passing and at one point in the second half, he’d completed just one of his last nine passes while the Razorbacks closed a 17-point deficit to just three. In a lesser system, this would’ve spelled disaster. And for much of this season, it has felt like disaster was lurking behind the next corner for Alabama, too.
But this is Saban’s genius.
Why did he bench Milroe against USF? Obviously, Saban knew his backups weren’t ready to produce. They were so bad, in fact, the Tide narrowly escaped USF. On the sideline, though, Milroe was the cheerleader — the guy who rallied his team, even when he wasn’t on the field, pushing the QBs who did play and proving to the Tide that he was a genuine leader.
He was given nothing. He turned it into something.
What are the odds Saban knew that would happen? What are the odds he knew that experience would underpin Milroe’s turnaround since returning to the starting job? What are the odds that understanding of his role is what helped him shrug off that 1-for-9 run to engineer a 10-play drive to drain the final 5:19 off the clock in Saturday’s win?
Maybe we’re reading too much into that decision and its aftermath. Maybe Saban really did nothing.
Or maybe it was yet another brilliant choice in an astoundingly brilliant career.
Jordan Travis appreciation section
Florida State demolished Syracuse on Saturday, 41-3, to remain undefeated. There’s not much to unpack here — FSU is good, Syracuse not so much — so let’s instead make this a Jordan Travis appreciation moment.
Travis arrived at Florida State in 2019 and was effectively told by the coaching staff that he wasn’t a QB. When Mike Norvell took over as head coach, Travis offered to switch positions. Even as he led FSU to within a few points of bowl eligibility at the end of 2021, the general consensus was Travis was a heck of a runner, but not much of a passer.
How silly that all sounds now.
Against Syracuse, Travis threw for 284 yards and a touchdown (he also ran for two short scores), despite playing without one of his top receivers, Johnny Wilson. But over the past calendar year, the numbers are downright eye-popping: 65% completions, 3,035 yards, 26 touchdown passes, three picks and a 12-0 record.
The lesson here: Willie Taggart’s idea for turnover backpacks wasn’t the worst decision he made at Florida State.
The other, more important lesson: Never doubt Jordan Travis.
Heisman five
After dominating this watch list for the past two years, USC QB Caleb Williams is out of our top five after throwing three picks against Notre Dame. Winning the Heisman in back-to-back years is a near-impossible feat, so hat tip to Williams for another good run, but it’s time to focus on a few other big names.
1. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
What’s left to be said about Penix after Saturday’s ridiculous performance against Oregon? We’re all just lucky he survived being a part of Indiana’s offense for so long and could still deliver games like that.
2. Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel
The Sooners were off in Week 7, which is good because Gabriel needed some down time after celebrating last week’s Red River win by having the Sooner Schooner deep-fried and covered with powdered sugar at the Texas State Fair.
3. Florida State QB Jordan Travis
Travis has 17 touchdowns, one turnover and has taken just seven sacks so far this season. In fairness, though, he could really just throw the ball straight up in the air and there’s still, like, a 28% chance Keon Coleman would come down with it for a touchdown.
4. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison posted his fourth 100-yard receiving game of the season against Purdue, and he’s been the backbone of Ohio State’s offense thus far. His performance Saturday came without Emeka Egbuka on the opposite side, but also it really doesn’t matter if Harrison is playing alongside two middle-aged data processors with a toddler at QB. He’s just really good.
5. LSU QB Jayden Daniels
Daniels had a handful of runs that looked like he was a video game QB played by someone’s cat that had gotten ahold of the controller, and that wasn’t even close to the most fun thing he did in LSU’s 48-18 win over Auburn on Saturday. Daniels finished with 325 pass yards, 93 rush yards and three TDs. He’s currently on pace to finish the season with more than 1,000 yards on the ground and nearly 5,000 through the air.
Trojans, Cards take first Ls
A week ago, Louisville torched Notre Dame in a stunning victory that signaled Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals were emergent and the Irish offense might be stuck in neutral for the rest of the season.
What a difference a week makes.
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Caleb Williams throws 3 INTs for first time in USC’s loss to Notre Dame
Caleb Williams throws a trio of interceptions in the first half as USC falls to Notre Dame 48-20.
On Saturday, Louisville was flummoxed by Pitt’s attacking defense, which forced three turnovers, including a pick-six, as the Panthers pulled off the upset, 38-21.
In South Bend, the fix for Notre Dame’s recent offensive woes was USC’s woeful defense. The Irish hung 24 on USC in the first half — seven more points than they’d scored in the first halves of their three previous games — and went on to cruise to a 48-20 win. It was the worst loss for a Lincoln Riley-coached team since the 2019 playoff game against LSU.
The end result: The ranks of the undefeated shrunk by two, while Notre Dame and Pitt both have new leases on the 2023 season.
Pitt’s win came after a QB change the fan base had begged the Panthers to make for weeks. Christian Veilleux — pronounced “Vay-air” according to him, “Vay-you” according to his dad and “Christian” according to us — threw two TD passes and sparked something Pitt fans are told was offense in the win. More significantly, the Panthers’ D shut down Louisville’s dynamic run game and picked off Jack Plummer twice.
Meanwhile, the Irish defense picked off Caleb Williams three times — just the second time in his career he had multiple picks — including two by Xavier Watts, who also recovered a fumble in the win. Sam Hartman and Audric Estime provided the offense for the Irish, each accounting for two TDs, and Notre Dame finishes a stretch of four straight games vs. ranked foes 2-2, but squarely back in the hunt for a New Year’s Six bid.
The bigger question may be where the two losing teams go from here?
Louisville’s remaining schedule is manageable, but the Cardinals will now need help if they hope to make the ACC championship game, and a hamstring injury for star tailback Jawhar Jordan could be a serious blow to the Louisville offense.
USC will face ranked foes in four of its last five games, including a Week 8 date with an Utah team that beat the Trojans twice in 2022.
Heels dig in
It might still be a bit too early to call the ACC a two-team race, but North Carolina took a huge step toward securing its spot alongside Florida State as the league’s best with a 41-31 win over Miami on Saturday.
Drake Maye threw for 273 yards and four TDs, Omarion Hampton ran for 197 yards and a score, and Tez Walker, in just his second game after being ruled eligible, caught six passes for 132 yards and three touchdowns.
1:30
UNC’s INT sets up Devontez Walker’s 3rd receiving TD
UNC’s Cedric Gray picks off Tyler Van Dyke, then Drake Maye finds Devontez Walker for their third pitch-and-catch touchdown.
Walker’s emergence is a thrilling sign for a UNC offense that already looks electric. The real story of the Heels’ 6-0 start, however, is the defense, which last year mostly featured matadors waving receivers past them to a genuinely good unit this season. Miami jumped out to a strong start Saturday, leading 17-14 at the half, but the Canes’ offense took a knee from there — with a fumble, an INT, a punt and a turnover on downs on its first four drives of the second half, by which time the Heels’ had pulled away. All that was left was for Mack Brown to continue his run of hilariously aggressive postgame handshakes by reaching into Mario Cristobal’s chest and ripping out his heart.
Until North Carolina’s win Saturday, teams named Miami had been undefeated vs. anyone not named Miami — with Miami (Ohio) at 5-1, its lone loss coming to Miami (Florida) in Week 1, and Miami (Florida) at 4-1, with its lone loss coming to itself last week. The good news for the Canes, however, is basketball season is just around the corner — a sport where Miami dominates and UNC didn’t even make the NCAA tournament last year.
Sadly for the Tar Heels, there’s at least a 40% chance the victory is overturned midweek when the NCAA decides Walker was actually ineligible this whole time.
JMU still unbeaten
Jordan McCloud threw for 259 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-13 win over Georgia Southern, giving James Madison its most emphatic victory since establishing the precedent of judicial review — or at least thumping Bucknell in Week 1.
JMU is now 6-0 on the season and 14-3 since moving up from FCS in 2022.
The Dukes’ defense has been terrific, and McCloud has emerged as one of the top transfer QBs of 2023 after spending the first five years of his career at Arizona and USF.
JMU’s reward for all of this success? It won’t be a Sun Belt title game appearance or a bowl game — both of which are off limits because the Dukes are still in Year 2 of their transition to FBS.
It’s a stupid rule, of course, but the NCAA has always been a bunch of Federalists.
Colorado collapses in non-Prime time
0:35
Deion Sanders questions his team’s love for football
Deion Sanders reacts to Colorado’s huge blown lead in its loss to Stanford and questions whether his team can match his passion.
Credit where it’s due: Deion Sanders saw it all coming.
“Who makes these 8 o’clock games?” Sanders asked last week. “Dumbest thing ever. Stupidest thing ever invented in life. Who wants to stay up until 8 o’clock for a darn game?”
First, we must argue with Prime’s take that it’s the “stupidest thing ever invented” when we’ve got emotional support goldfish in Tallahassee.
— no context college football (@nocontextcfb) October 14, 2023
Second, boy, was Prime right about everything else. By halftime Friday night, the Buffaloes had all popped a melatonin gummy, changed into their official Coach Prime pajamas (complete with cowboy hat and sunglasses-shaped eye mask) and focused on getting a good night’s rest.
Unfortunately for Colorado, Stanford‘s team is used to pulling all-nighters for their advanced theoretical physics exams, so the Cardinal kept on playing in the second half, erasing a 29-0 Buffs lead and winning 46-43 in double overtime.
Shedeur Sanders threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns, including two to a reemergent Travis Hunter, but his INT in the second OT frame proved to be the final dagger in Colorado’s hopes.
Was it embarrassing for Prime? Sure. Was it an indication that, perhaps, Colorado is a fun — but not exactly good — football team? You betcha.
Under-the-radar game of the week
The lame kids who all just pretend to love horrific offenses and ugly games were all over Iowa-Wisconsin on Saturday, but the real fans of the genre — the hipsters who were into Sickos Football before it was cool — know the real story of Week 7 was the showdown between Navy and Charlotte.
On one side was Navy’s option — of which very few of those options involve scoring points.
On the other side was the struggling 49ers — an offense so inept, points are tougher to find than sleeves on Biff Poggi’s sweatshirts.
Saturday’s game had everything: Stalled drives, ugly turnovers and more punts than Brian Ferentz’s end-of-season highlight film.
Oh my look at this beauty… pic.twitter.com/I5P5svgLa2
— ??️♈️? (@ADavidHaleJoint) October 14, 2023
The two teams combined to complete 17 of 43 throws.
Fifteen drives lasted three plays or less.
Charlotte racked up 396 yards on punts — which was still 113 less than Navy.
Navy scored on a 69-yard pass and a 62-yard run. Those two plays accounted for 25% of the total offensive yardage in the game. (Oh, and that 62-yard touchdown capped a one-play, 57-yard drive because of both a penalty and also that these offenses were moving so slowly the earth began to rotate backwards underneath them).
So, next time your Iowa friends talk about how much they love punting, ask them if they’ve checked out the new Riley Riethman mixtape. The cool kids know what’s up.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Wake Forest‘s Demond Claiborne took a kickoff 96 yards for the score late in the second quarter against Virginia Tech on Saturday.
0:43
Wake Forest’s Demond Claiborne returns kickoff 96 yards to the house
Wake Forest RB Demond Claiborne flies through the Virginia Tech defense for a 96-yard touchdown.
What makes this kick return so special? Well, for one, it came in the middle of 17 points scored in a 24-second span in the game — Virginia Tech field goal, Claiborne return and a Jaylin Lane 75-yard TD catch on the next scrimmage play — which is notable in a game between two teams that gave us the greatest Twitter meme of all time.
The other point that makes Claiborne’s score notable is it might be the only way Wake Forest is scoring any time soon. The Deacons have now lost three straight games in which they’ve scored a total of 34 points. Wake has had 35 offensive drives in that stretch — 13 of which ended in punts and nine in turnovers. So, yeah, special teams will need to be pretty good.
A decorator’s touch
This week, news broke that, amid a woeful 1-4 start, Pitt had installed a vase at the entrance to the football facility where players were to deposit their negative thoughts.
This vase has been put at the entrance for the #Pitt facility. Players are to put their negative thoughts in it. pic.twitter.com/7iN76WU8zJ
— Christopher Carter (@CarterCritiques) October 11, 2023
Narduzzi comes up to the podium, and puts the blue vase right here before he starts to speak after #Pitt‘s win over No. 14 Louisville, and went on to say he told his team all week they were going to win this game. pic.twitter.com/c0yly1fV6p
— Christopher Carter (@CarterCritiques) October 15, 2023
Sadly, it turns out the sadness vase — urn of anguish? jar of joylessness? decanter of despair? — was actually a bit more complicated than all that, and the story was all a big nothing.
But we’re not willing to let a good idea go just because Pat Narduzzi didn’t actually think of it first. So, with that in mind, we’re depositing all our negative emotions from Week 7 into the … uh … flagon of forlornness? Let’s go with that.
It’s time to kill the Kevin James meme
Much like “The King of Queens,” the memes were good for three or four laughs, but it has long since outlived its relevance. Need evidence? Maryland tried to psych out Illinois kicker Caleb Griffin by showing an oversized — “More like life-sized if he keeps up with the pasta bolognese,” says Leah Remini (insert laugh track here) — image of Kevin James on the jumbotron behind the goal posts.
Instead, Griffin drilled a 43-yarder for the winner as time expired, giving the Illini a 27-24 victory.
0:56
Illinois stuns Maryland on last-second 43-yard FG
Illinois players go wild after Caleb Griffin’s 43-yard field goal gives them a 27-24 win over the Terrapins.
Like Maryland’s hot starts, Twitter memes were never made to last. So let’s turn the page and focus our kicker-related psychological warfare through more traditional means, like ordering two dozen pizzas to his hotel room at 3 a.m. or telling him Taylor Swift is in the press box and is really excited to meet him if he makes it.
The Air Raid is not ready for the Big Ten
Phil Longo took his high-powered Air Raid offense to Wisconsin this offseason with a promise of injecting a sense of modernity to the staid Big Ten.
Turns out, the Big Ten is utterly uninterested in any offense invented after the Industrial Revolution.
Wisconsin lost QB Tanner Mordecai to injury, failed to throw a TD and converted just 2 of 17 third-down tries in a 15-6 loss to Iowa.
Jump around ‼️#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/Z2uNxe8WwH
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) October 15, 2023
Oh, sure, Wisconsin still held Iowa to just 237 yards of offense, and the Hawkeyes mustered just nine first downs in the game, but that all went according to script. It’s Iowa’s 13th win of the playoff era when scoring less than 20 points — more than any other team in FBS. In fact, Iowa wins 33% of the time it fails to hit 20, while the rest of FBS wins at just a tick better than 10% of the time.
Iowa did punt 10 times for 506 yards though, which in a way, is its own version of a well-executed Air Raid.
Twitter jinxes
We may have tweeted something negative about Stanford at halftime Friday night, and that aged poorly.
We did it again Saturday, noting that Kansas QB Jason Bean was having himself a day.
Jason Bean, midway through 3Q: 343 yards and 5 TDs.
Iowa & Wisconsin combined at halftime: 310 yards, 1 TD.
— ??️♈️? (@ADavidHaleJoint) October 14, 2023
After that tweet, Bean threw two picks, had two more drives end on downs and Oklahoma State erased an eight-point deficit to win 39-32, as Ollie Gordon ran for 168 yards and caught six passes for another 116.
We take full responsibility and apologize to the citizens of Lawrence, Kansas.
Max Johnson as the world’s best suburban dad QB jokes
It’s been one of the few joys of watching Texas A&M football this year that we’ve been able to crack a few jokes at Johnson’s expense because he’s seemingly been playing college ball for 23 years. For a while, it was all in good fun, and Johnson seemed to have injected some actual life into the Aggies’ offense.
On Saturday, the Aggies lost in agonizing fashion for the second straight week, with Johnson tossing interceptions on each of his last two drives and falling to Tennessee, 20-13.
Afterward, all that was left for Johnson to do was throw the team’s helmets and shoulder pads into the back of his Dodge Caravan, distribute the individually wrapped PB&Js with the crusts cut off and get to work on those reports his boss had asked for Thursday.
Michigan State blew a 24-6 fourth-quarter lead to Rutgers, with the Scarlet Knights scoring three times in less than five minutes of game time and winning, 27-24.
We’re going to suggest Michigan State just sits out the rest of the season and starts fresh in 2024. Nothing good can come from continuing to play football this year. Just sit back, enjoy the Urban Meyer rumors, watch some basketball and we can all pretend this year didn’t happen when spring practice starts in March.
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David Schoenfield
The early returns from the MLB trade deadline are filtering in. The dog days of August are challenging pitching staffs. The Boston Red Sox are humming, the New York Yankees are stumbling and the New York Mets might be crumbling. Yes, it’s going to be a fun stretch drive.
How do the postseason races stand? Let’s break down the contenders into playoff tiers.
Tier I: The locks
Biggest surprise: Andrew Vaughn has been raking since coming over from the White Sox in a trade in which Chicago was clearing him off its roster. Rhys Hoskins might return from the injured list later this month, but Vaughn has hit so well that Hoskins has likely been Wally Pipp-ed and relegated to part-time DH duty (depending on how often Christian Yelich can play the outfield). Vaughn has — so far — provided some much-needed power, which had been the Brewers’ only weakness.
Injury to watch: Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is out because of a shin contusion but should be back soon, and the Brewers probably welcomed the break to limit his innings anyway. So keep an eye on Jackson Chourio, who is likely out a couple more weeks because of a strained hamstring. Chourio had been red-hot in July, with an OPS over 1.000 before hitting the IL.
Player to watch: Brandon Woodruff. The one-time Brewers ace hadn’t pitched since September 2023 before finally returning in July and has delivered six excellent starts with a 2.29 ERA, 45 strikeouts and just six walks.
His fastball velocity isn’t where it was before his shoulder injury, but Woodruff has been locating where he wants, as batters are hitting .111 against his four-seamer and .156 against his sinker. A playoff rotation with Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Misiorowski and Quinn Priester, who has won 10 consecutive decisions, looks like one that could deliver the Brewers their first World Series title.
Biggest surprise: Well, there are two ways to look at this. The Dodgers are in the bottom half of the majors in ERA with Yoshinobu Yamamoto their only starter who has been in the rotation all season. Sitting in first place despite those injury issues can be viewed as a pleasant surprise. Or maybe it’s a bad surprise that a team that was a huge favorite to run away with the National West has to fight for the division title.
The Dodgers have essentially used a six-man rotation all season, with pitchers making just seven starts on four days of rest. Yamamoto hasn’t started on all four days of rest all season. With the Dodgers battling the Padres for the division crown, will manager Dave Roberts go to a five-man rotation? What about in the postseason, when four days of rest is generally the norm if you want to use just your top four starters?
Injury to watch: Just one? While the rotation is slowly getting healthier (Blake Snell is back), late-game relievers Tanner Scott (elbow) and Kirby Yates (back) are on the IL.
Player to watch: With Mookie Betts seemingly mired in seasonlong mediocrity, the Dodgers will need Freddie Freeman to heat up again. The first baseman was hitting .374 with a 1.078 OPS through May but then hit .226 with just two home runs in June and July. In late July, he said he fixed something in his swing, and he hit .400 with three home runs in his first 14 games after that proclamation. If Freeman is back, the offense might be the best in the majors again.
Biggest surprise: The Blue Jays were 26-28 on May 27 but have the second-best record in the majors since, and journeyman starter Eric Lauer has been a key reason. After not pitching in the majors in 2024 and finishing the season in Korea, he joined the rotation for good on June 11 and has gone 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA since then, with the Jays winning nine of his 11 starts.
Injury to watch: The Jays signed Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million contract after a 44-homer season with the Orioles, but he has been out since May 29 because of a shoulder injury and hit just .179 before that. Getting back a productive Santander would help boost an outfield that has been mix-and-match all season.
Player to watch: The Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber from Cleveland at the trade deadline, getting a pitcher still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He should have two more rehab starts before he’s ready to join the rotation — and the Blue Jays will be counting on him to be in the playoff rotation.
Depending on how Bieber performs, it wouldn’t be shocking for him to leapfrog Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter. Lauer and Max Scherzer will be in that mix, with Chris Bassitt hanging around as well. That rotation depth is why the Jays rate as the heavy favorite to win the division — and at the minimum look like a playoff lock.
Biggest surprise: Everyone knew about Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s defense, but certainly nobody expected him to hit for this kind of power and turn into an MVP candidate in his first full season. He’s doing it despite the highest swing rate in the majors, which gives him one of the worst chase rates. He would have the lowest OBP for an MVP winner. Still, he had his highest monthly batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.637) in July, although he’s slumping in August.
Injury to watch: The big one was Justin Steele going down for the season because of Tommy John surgery. Jameson Taillon is still out because of a calf strain. The Cubs acquired Michael Soroka at the deadline to help the rotation, but he lasted two innings in his first start before going down because of a sore shoulder, and his availability the rest of the season is unknown.
Player to watch: Rookie starter Cade Horton is emerging as a force. He joined the rotation in May and had a 4.80 ERA through his first two months but has allowed no runs in five of his past six starts, including his past four in a row. Coming off an injury-plagued 2024, the Cubs are being very conservative with the 23-year-old’s pitch counts (fewer than 90 pitches in his past four outings), but he has been efficient enough to give them five or six innings.
Some of Horton’s peripheral numbers — so-so strikeout rate, not a ton of swing-and-miss — don’t necessarily match up with all the zeros, but he’s limiting hard contact. With Soroka out, Horton is vital to the Cubs’ hopes of running down the Brewers in the NL Central.
Biggest surprise: Kyle Schwarber hitting a lot of home runs is hardly a surprise — he has reached 40 three times — but Schwarber as a potential MVP candidate? That wasn’t on anyone’s preseason scorecard. OK, maybe that’s still a long shot given that Crow-Armstrong’s all-around value gives the Cubs outfielder a big edge in WAR and Shohei Ohtani is now pitching to go with his Schwarber-like offensive numbers. Still, Schwarber looks unstoppable at the plate right now and leads the NL in home runs and RBIs as his OPS inches closer to 1.000.
Injury to watch: Aaron Nola has been on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his right rib and has made a couple of rehab starts, so he should be returning to the rotation soon. The Phillies haven’t really missed him because of their pitching depth, but a healthy Nola will bump Taijuan Walker from the rotation, plus he could leap over Jesus Luzardo as the fourth starter in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: Trea Turner hit well for three months to begin the season but went homerless in July, and his OBP dropped way off. At his best, he’s an offensive force who hits for average and some power while setting the table for Bryce Harper and Schwarber behind him. He can also have spells when he starts chasing too much and the offense dries up. The Phillies are a lock to get in, but they need the best version of Turner down the stretch to hold off the Mets in the NL East.
Tier II: Should get in
What they need to do to become a lock: The Tigers seemed like a lock when they held a 14-game lead in the American League Central before the All-Star break while playing like the best team in baseball. Then they lost 12 out of 13 games, and Cleveland got hot. The Guardians are at least close enough to put a little fear in the Tigers.
The lineup scuffled in July, but the bullpen still feels like the key here. The Tigers are 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA and 28th in reliever strikeout rate. It’s not good when you’re ranked with the Nationals and Rockies. They added some reinforcements at the trade deadline, but Kyle Finnegan and Rafael Montero aren’t solutions.
Injury to watch: The Tigers signed Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15 million contract in the offseason, but the 37-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in the majors this season because of hip inflammation. After his first rehab stint was cut short in June, he’s trying to get healthy enough to provide a boost to the rotation.
The Tigers traded for Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack, but Cobb could be in the same scenario he was with Cleveland last season, when he made just three regular-season starts but was in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: It has been an odd season for Riley Greene, whose strikeout rate is over 32% and whose walk rate has plummeted from last season (11% to 6%). The home run and RBI numbers are there, although he has been in a deep slump since the All-Star break. Can he be consistent enough to lead the Detroit offense and deliver in crunch time, or will the better pitchers in the postseason exploit his swing-and-miss tendencies?
What they need to do to become a lock: In 2022, the Padres made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader and eventually reaching the NLCS. This deadline, general manager A.J. Preller was again on a mission, trading top prospect Leo De Vries to acquire Athletics closer Mason Miller to strengthen what was already perhaps the game’s best bullpen. Preller also filled some holes in the lineup with the additions of Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin.
The Padres have the deepest bullpen and a deeper lineup. Will that be enough to cover their lack of power (next to last in the majors in home runs) and a middle-of-the-pack rotation (getting Dylan Cease on a roll would be nice)? Maybe. But it’s clear that to not just lock up that playoff spot but also chase down the Dodgers in the NL West, Padres manager Mike Shildt will have to ride those bullpen arms.
Injury to watch: On Saturday, Michael King made his first start since May 18 after being out with a pinched nerve in his shoulder. If King is at full health, having him and Nick Pivetta lead the rotation would pair nicely with that loaded bullpen.
Player to watch: Second-year center fielder Jackson Merrill hasn’t replicated his rookie power numbers, and his OBP cratered in July, when he hit .196/.262/.304. The early returns are better this month, and though the Padres upgraded their offensive depth, they need Merrill to be a force.
New York Mets
What they need to do to become a lock: It’s not so easy to buy your way into the playoffs, is it? The Mets correctly upgraded a struggling bullpen by adding Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto, but now it’s the offense that is going through some rough times. Despite adding Juan Soto and getting a much better season from Pete Alonso (he has already surpassed last year’s RBI total), the Mets are scoring fewer runs per game than in 2024.
The Mets were 21-10 at the end of April with a plus-54 run differential. Since then, they’ve gone 42-45 with a minus-24 run differential. Soto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have scuffled of late, and Soto has been terrible all season with runners in scoring position (.190/.331/.360). There’s too much talent here for the Mets to miss the playoffs.
Injury to watch: Tylor Megill, out with an elbow sprain, is the one injured player who could return and help, whether in the rotation or the bullpen.
Player to watch: Soto. It’s time for him to put the team on his back.
Tier III: Have work to do
How they make the playoffs: Hit better with runners in scoring position. The trade deadline additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, plus the gradual improvement of rookie Cole Young and the surprising production from Dominic Canzone, have made this one of the deeper lineups in the league. The Mariners rank 10th in OPS and second in road OPS — but they’re just 24th in OPS with runners in scoring position.
Injury to watch: Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) has made two rehab starts. He threw four scoreless innings in the first outing but served up three home runs in the second. His fastball velocity was sitting at 96. He could be in line for two more starts before potentially replacing Logan Evans in the rotation — and giving the Mariners their projected five-man group for the first time all season.
Player to watch: Naylor was acquired for his bat, not his legs, but he is running like Rickey Henderson since joining the M’s, swiping 10 bases in his first 13 games — pretty remarkable for a player who ranks in the third percentile of all players in running speed. He left Thursday’s game because of some discomfort after a swing, but the Mariners said it’s likely just a day-to-day situation.
Boston Red Sox
How they make the playoffs: Keep pitching like they have. While going 24-10 since June 30, the Red Sox have a 3.08 ERA. Garrett Crochet has led the way and is now toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but Lucas Giolito is also 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 11 starts and Brayan Bello is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA since July 1.
Injury to watch: Though he’s not on the IL, closer Aroldis Chapman left a game in late July because of back tightness. He has allowed one earned run over his past 32 innings, so keeping the 37-year-old healthy is vital.
Player to watch: Rookie outfielder Roman Anthony just signed an eight-year, $130 million extension (escalators could bring the total value up to $230 million). Though the 21-year-old has shown precocious plate discipline that suggests the bright future the Red Sox are banking on, his home run power hasn’t shown up yet, in part because he’s still hitting a lot of balls on the ground. He’s already good, but maybe he’ll be great down the stretch.
How they make the playoffs: Have Carlos Correa turn back the clock. In a shocking trade deadline deal, the Astros reacquired their former shortstop to play third base with Isaac Paredes injured. Correa was having a poor season with the Twins, with the worst OPS of his career, although he has hit better in his first week with the Astros. With an offense that has been forced to play a lot of Triple-A fillers because of injuries, Correa could provide a huge boost.
Injury to watch: Will Yordan Alvarez make it back? The superstar DH has played just 29 games, none since May 2, because of a right hand fracture. He has been taking batting practice in Florida. Meanwhile, Paredes remains out because of a serious hamstring injury, choosing rehab with the hope of returning this season. Center fielder Jake Meyers is still rehabbing a calf strain.
Player to watch: The Astros have struggled to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez because of the injuries. Spencer Arrighetti just returned from the 60-day IL and allowed 11 hits and five runs in 3⅔ innings. He had a strong second half last season, so the Astros would love for him to step up as a strong No. 3 starter.
New York Yankees
How they make the playoffs: Hit better. Field better. Pitch better. Run the bases better. The Yankees are 20-31 since June 13, losing 10 games in the standings and dropping from first to third place.
It has been a comedy of errors at times, but, at the minimum, they need the bullpen to figure things out. The Yankees rank in the bottom third of the majors in bullpen win probability added. Maybe David Bednar‘s five-out save the other day will at least settle down the closer situation, as he’s likely to take over that role from Devin Williams.
Injury to watch: Aaron Judge is back from the flexor strain in his elbow that sidelined him for 10 days, although still serving only as a DH. It shouldn’t affect his offense, but the Yankees would love to get him back on the field defensively so they can use Giancarlo Stanton, who had been hot, as the DH. Stanton is unplayable on defense, so he’s limited to pinch-hitting duties with Judge occupying the DH spot.
Player to watch: If Judge is producing, the Yankees will score. The bullpen has the talent to get hot down the stretch. But suddenly, the rotation has some concerns as well. Carlos Rodon has walked 15 over his past 20 innings across four starts. Even going back to June 8, his ERA is just 4.50 after a great first two months. Is he a reliable No. 2 starter behind Max Fried?
Tier IV: The long shots
How do they get in? Continue to ride Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom in the rotation, figure out the closer situation and have the offense keep hitting like it did in July, when it was better than it had been all season.
Journeyman Robert Garcia had been closing of late, but he gave up two critical home runs to the Mariners last weekend and now that role is once again in flux. The Rangers are done with the Mariners, but their six remaining games against the Astros loom large.
How do they get in? The Guardians looked out of it when they were 40-48 in early July, with the Tigers seemingly running away with the division. But Cleveland has gone 21-8 since then, and the upcoming schedule is pretty soft as they finish this series against the White Sox and then play the Marlins, Braves and Diamondbacks.
Six games against the Tigers in September means the AL Central might not be decided until then. The offense, hitting just .224 through July 6, has averaged more than five runs per game since then, with a lot more of the timely hitting we saw last season. It helps that Jose Ramirez got hot right at that time.
Tier V: The really long shots
How do they get in? They’re the seventh team in a race where only six teams get in, so they’ll need to get some help, which the Mets seem to be accommodating right now. But the Reds also need to get the rotation back in a groove.
After posting a 3.69 ERA in April and 3.17 in May, the rotation ERA rose to 4.52 in June and 4.16 in July, but there are some positive developments. Hunter Greene is about ready to return from his rehab, and Zack Littell had a terrific first start with the Reds after coming over in a deadline deal, allowing one run in seven innings with a season-high 15 swing-and-misses.
How do they get in? If the Reds need a little help, the Giants will need a lot of help. They blew up the bullpen, which had been the strength of the team, by trading Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, so we’ll see whether they have enough depth there. Same with the rotation. With Landen Roupp injured and Hayden Birdsong demoted to the minors, the rotation features recent call-ups Carson Whisenhunt and Kai-Wei Teng. Justin Verlander has reeled off three good starts in a row, although each was limited to five innings. They’ll need those three to pitch well behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
How do they get in? In the American League, anything still feels possible. Just look at last year, when the Tigers were already buried at this point, only to reel off an improbable run to the postseason. The Royals would need to leap past three teams to get a wild card, but if the Yankees keep fading, all it would take is a little hot streak to jump past Texas and Cleveland as well.
The Royals will have to score more runs, but the offense had its best month, and it has had a few big offensive games in August. Bobby Witt Jr. has had another strong season, but what if he really heats up like he did last July and August?
How do they get in? They’ve run hot and cold all season, going 16-12 in May and 17-10 in June before stumbling to 7-18 in July. The key will be the offense, which scored 151 runs in June but just 98 in July. Junior Caminero saw his OPS drop 150 points; Jonathan Aranda dropped over 100 points and then fractured his wrist; Brandon Lowe got injured and had just two RBIs in nine games (he’s back now); and Josh Lowe hit .186. The odds are slim, but we’ve learned to never count out the Rays.
How do they get in? The starting pitching will have to improve, as the Cardinals rank 25th in rotation ERA and 29th in strikeout rate. That suggests improvement — at least enough to produce a late surge — is unlikely. Oh, the offense also tanked in July.
It looks as if it will be a third straight season without making the playoffs. No wonder attendance has declined to its lowest per-game average since 1995 (not including 2021) and because that was the post-strike year, the lowest in a non-strike-affected year since 1984.
How do they get in? When the Marlins swept the Yankees last weekend to climb to .500, they momentarily offered a glimpse of hope, climbing six games out of a wild card. Then they lost three of four, so their playoff odds have dipped back to around 1%. You never know, of course, and maybe Sandy Alcantara will suddenly reel off eight Cy Young-caliber starts in a row.
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