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  • David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterOct 14, 2023, 11:52 PM ET

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    • ACC reporter.
    • Joined ESPN in 2012.
    • Graduate of the University of Delaware.

The term “instant classic” gets thrown around too much these days. Sure, we’re occasionally gifted moments we instantly recognize as something truly life-altering as they’re happening — like every cutaway to Taylor Swift during an NFL broadcast — but most “instant classics” are just run-of-the-mill entertainment — consumed, enjoyed and forgotten.

Washington and Oregon‘s showdown Saturday though? That’s one to remember.

The Huskies won — or, at least, they survived 36-33. The Ducks lost — or, at least, they ran out of time.

Michael Penix Jr. delivered a touchdown throw to Rome Odunze with 1:38 to play to secure the victory and ensconce himself at the front of the Heisman race.

Bo Nix delivered one of the truly great second-half performances by a QB who ultimately lost, completing 20-of-24 passes for 221 yards, but couldn’t connect on two fourth-down tries deep in Huskies territory.

The game featured six lead changes, 19 of 21 drives offered the offense a chance to take a lead, and Oregon’s fate was only sealed by a missed kick that would have sent the game to overtime.

In 10 months, these two teams will move to the Big Ten and, by rule, stop being fun and start focusing on punts. Thank the football gods we still got Saturday.

There will be so many decisions left to critique. Oregon coach Dan Lanning chose to go for it on fourth down deep in Washington territory twice, and failed both times. He went for it on fourth again with a chance to salt away the game just past midfield. That failed, too, and set up the Huskies’ winning score.

There will be so many what-ifs. Would Penix have shredded the Oregon secondary to the tune of 302 yards and four TDs, including that winner, had the Ducks not seen both starting corners injured on the same play? Or perhaps it might’ve been more had Jalen McMillan not been sidelined early for the Huskies.

There will be moments when Lanning wakes up in the middle of the night and wonders why he was so cocky on those fourth-down calls, but never took a shot at the end zone on that final, fateful drive.

There will be replays of the game when future generations sit back in awe at Bucky Irving‘s tenacity and Kalen DeBoer’s offensive genius and Odunze’s ridiculous athleticism — and they’ll ask themselves, what the heck is the deal with Oregon’s uniforms? Was that a cookies-and-cream aesthetic or did the equipment guy accidentally throw a Bic pen in with the wash? Anyway, Irving and DeBoer and Odunze are all good.

There will be so many more twists and turns in the story because this was but a chapter for two heavyweights, with each still facing a chorus of ranked foes before a possible rematch in the Pac-12 championship game.

And that would be the perfect send-off for this weird, beautiful, ridiculous conference. For all the slings and arrows and Larry Scotts the Pac-12 has endured for much of the playoff era, its final season looks to be one for the ages, and Oregon and Washington certainly delivered the goods Saturday. It’s a rivalry that has fought its way to the top of college football — 13 lead changes, 38 drives with the score within one possession in the past two games — and it’s a matchup between two Heisman-caliber QBs and two playoff-caliber teams that truly belong in the spotlight.

Will a Big Ten contender be challenged?

Michigan won in a rout Saturday.

We could’ve typed that sentence in any of the past seven weeks, and we probably will write it again in the next few. Heck, we could’ve scribbled it onto a note card back in July, sealed it in an envelope and locked it inside an uncrackable safe, then opened it again Saturday afternoon to exactly zero fanfare at our prophetic brilliance. The Wolverines’ dominance is the least surprising development of the season.

There’s a good case to be made that Michigan is the country’s best team. The problem with that argument is the lack of anything approaching definitive evidence, thanks to a schedule that has essentially cast the Wolverines as Andy Reid in a 1970s punt, pass and kick competition.

Saturday’s blowout came against Indiana, but that doesn’t matter. It looked the same against ECU and UNLV, Nebraska and Minnesota. The best team Michigan has played thus far might be Rutgers. The biggest challenge the Wolverines have faced so far might’ve been tying their shoes.

It’s not Michigan’s fault, of course, that two-thirds of the Big Ten is made up of teams that should be wearing red Starfleet uniforms — just cannon fodder for the big stars.

And it’s only partially Michigan’s fault the nonconference slate is so bad. Who could’ve foreseen Bowling Green failing to provide a true test? (Don’t answer that.)

It’s not even really Michigan’s fault that its wins vs. such overmatched competition have been so dull. It’s partially slow starts, partially boredom, and for the first three Saturdays of the season, partially because their head coach was suspended and used that time to put the finishing touches on his YA novel about a magical pair of time-traveling khakis sewn with enchanted threads by L.L. Bean himself.

The real story of Michigan’s season requires a deeper dive into the text. J.J. McCarthy has genuinely blossomed into an all-around star at quarterback. He entered Saturday leading the nation in Total QBR, and added to his tally against Indiana, throwing for three touchdowns and averaging 13 yards per pass. The ground game remains strong with Blake Corum treating end zones like Kevin Hart treats movies — he’s in all of them. The defense hasn’t allowed multiple touchdowns in a game yet. The analytics all suggest Michigan’s dominance is noteworthy, with most metrics suggesting the Wolverines have been the year’s most impressive team — that is, if watching LeBron dunk on a team full of second-graders is impressive.

The narrative isn’t markedly different for Michigan’s archrival Ohio State, either. Ohio State thumped Purdue on Saturday 41-7. Yes, the Buckeyes have a win over Notre Dame — on the road, in ugly, low-scoring fashion — but the list of teams who’ve done that over the past two years includes other luminaries like … Marshall and Stanford. The Buckeyes have a playmaker in receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but the rest of the offense has been like the latter seasons of “The Walking Dead” — occasionally fun, but mostly we’re just watching out of obligation.

And honestly, that all sounds a lot like Penn State, which hosted UMass for homecoming on Saturday, in a game in which the Minutemen played the role unsuspecting insect flying leisurely across the Pennsylvania Turnpike, intersecting with the Nittany Lions’ 18-wheeler to the tune of a 63-0 thrashing. Penn State has won every game by at least 17 points, and has something approaching a signature with a shutout of Iowa — but it’s also worth recalling that Iowa had given up offense in September as part of an intermittent fasting routine. Meanwhile, Penn State’s vaunted tailbacks have been far from electric so far this year, and reporters are openly wondering why James Franklin doesn’t let his QB just chuck it deep on every play like a drunk guy playing Madden. Is that a recipe for the playoff? Maybe!

The Ohio State-Penn State dilemma at least will be settled next week when the two face off in Columbus. After that, we’ll know for certain who Michigan’s true competition for a Big Ten title and a playoff berth might be.

But it’ll still be another month before we see Michigan play anyone likely to provide much of a test.

So, unless you’ve got yourself a magical pair of time-traveling khakis, the real answers on Michigan’s ceiling will have to wait a while longer.

It’s a game about nothing

Nick Saban offered a lecture this week on “the importance of nothing.”

The point, he said, was that even the most talented players are entitled to nothing, and that success only comes when you meet your potential.

We assume there’s some real genius in this lesson because Saban is a football genius and because we liked the pitch when George Costanza gave it in the 1990s, too.

Alabama did just enough nothing Saturday to escape Arkansas, 24-21. It was hardly an impressive win, but it was the type of game in which Saban’s subtle touches made all the difference (and also the type of game where Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos will probably leave his “out of office” autoreply up for a while).

Example: Jalen Milroe finished just 10-of-21 passing and at one point in the second half, he’d completed just one of his last nine passes while the Razorbacks closed a 17-point deficit to just three. In a lesser system, this would’ve spelled disaster. And for much of this season, it has felt like disaster was lurking behind the next corner for Alabama, too.

But this is Saban’s genius.

Why did he bench Milroe against USF? Obviously, Saban knew his backups weren’t ready to produce. They were so bad, in fact, the Tide narrowly escaped USF. On the sideline, though, Milroe was the cheerleader — the guy who rallied his team, even when he wasn’t on the field, pushing the QBs who did play and proving to the Tide that he was a genuine leader.

He was given nothing. He turned it into something.

What are the odds Saban knew that would happen? What are the odds he knew that experience would underpin Milroe’s turnaround since returning to the starting job? What are the odds that understanding of his role is what helped him shrug off that 1-for-9 run to engineer a 10-play drive to drain the final 5:19 off the clock in Saturday’s win?

Maybe we’re reading too much into that decision and its aftermath. Maybe Saban really did nothing.

Or maybe it was yet another brilliant choice in an astoundingly brilliant career.

Jordan Travis appreciation section

Florida State demolished Syracuse on Saturday, 41-3, to remain undefeated. There’s not much to unpack here — FSU is good, Syracuse not so much — so let’s instead make this a Jordan Travis appreciation moment.

Travis arrived at Florida State in 2019 and was effectively told by the coaching staff that he wasn’t a QB. When Mike Norvell took over as head coach, Travis offered to switch positions. Even as he led FSU to within a few points of bowl eligibility at the end of 2021, the general consensus was Travis was a heck of a runner, but not much of a passer.

How silly that all sounds now.

Against Syracuse, Travis threw for 284 yards and a touchdown (he also ran for two short scores), despite playing without one of his top receivers, Johnny Wilson. But over the past calendar year, the numbers are downright eye-popping: 65% completions, 3,035 yards, 26 touchdown passes, three picks and a 12-0 record.

The lesson here: Willie Taggart’s idea for turnover backpacks wasn’t the worst decision he made at Florida State.

The other, more important lesson: Never doubt Jordan Travis.

Heisman five

After dominating this watch list for the past two years, USC QB Caleb Williams is out of our top five after throwing three picks against Notre Dame. Winning the Heisman in back-to-back years is a near-impossible feat, so hat tip to Williams for another good run, but it’s time to focus on a few other big names.

1. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.

What’s left to be said about Penix after Saturday’s ridiculous performance against Oregon? We’re all just lucky he survived being a part of Indiana’s offense for so long and could still deliver games like that.

2. Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel

The Sooners were off in Week 7, which is good because Gabriel needed some down time after celebrating last week’s Red River win by having the Sooner Schooner deep-fried and covered with powdered sugar at the Texas State Fair.

3. Florida State QB Jordan Travis

Travis has 17 touchdowns, one turnover and has taken just seven sacks so far this season. In fairness, though, he could really just throw the ball straight up in the air and there’s still, like, a 28% chance Keon Coleman would come down with it for a touchdown.

4. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison posted his fourth 100-yard receiving game of the season against Purdue, and he’s been the backbone of Ohio State’s offense thus far. His performance Saturday came without Emeka Egbuka on the opposite side, but also it really doesn’t matter if Harrison is playing alongside two middle-aged data processors with a toddler at QB. He’s just really good.

5. LSU QB Jayden Daniels

Daniels had a handful of runs that looked like he was a video game QB played by someone’s cat that had gotten ahold of the controller, and that wasn’t even close to the most fun thing he did in LSU’s 48-18 win over Auburn on Saturday. Daniels finished with 325 pass yards, 93 rush yards and three TDs. He’s currently on pace to finish the season with more than 1,000 yards on the ground and nearly 5,000 through the air.

Trojans, Cards take first Ls

A week ago, Louisville torched Notre Dame in a stunning victory that signaled Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals were emergent and the Irish offense might be stuck in neutral for the rest of the season.

What a difference a week makes.

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Caleb Williams throws 3 INTs for first time in USC’s loss to Notre Dame

Caleb Williams throws a trio of interceptions in the first half as USC falls to Notre Dame 48-20.

On Saturday, Louisville was flummoxed by Pitt’s attacking defense, which forced three turnovers, including a pick-six, as the Panthers pulled off the upset, 38-21.

In South Bend, the fix for Notre Dame’s recent offensive woes was USC’s woeful defense. The Irish hung 24 on USC in the first half — seven more points than they’d scored in the first halves of their three previous games — and went on to cruise to a 48-20 win. It was the worst loss for a Lincoln Riley-coached team since the 2019 playoff game against LSU.

The end result: The ranks of the undefeated shrunk by two, while Notre Dame and Pitt both have new leases on the 2023 season.

Pitt’s win came after a QB change the fan base had begged the Panthers to make for weeks. Christian Veilleux — pronounced “Vay-air” according to him, “Vay-you” according to his dad and “Christian” according to us — threw two TD passes and sparked something Pitt fans are told was offense in the win. More significantly, the Panthers’ D shut down Louisville’s dynamic run game and picked off Jack Plummer twice.

Meanwhile, the Irish defense picked off Caleb Williams three times — just the second time in his career he had multiple picks — including two by Xavier Watts, who also recovered a fumble in the win. Sam Hartman and Audric Estime provided the offense for the Irish, each accounting for two TDs, and Notre Dame finishes a stretch of four straight games vs. ranked foes 2-2, but squarely back in the hunt for a New Year’s Six bid.

The bigger question may be where the two losing teams go from here?

Louisville’s remaining schedule is manageable, but the Cardinals will now need help if they hope to make the ACC championship game, and a hamstring injury for star tailback Jawhar Jordan could be a serious blow to the Louisville offense.

USC will face ranked foes in four of its last five games, including a Week 8 date with an Utah team that beat the Trojans twice in 2022.

Heels dig in

It might still be a bit too early to call the ACC a two-team race, but North Carolina took a huge step toward securing its spot alongside Florida State as the league’s best with a 41-31 win over Miami on Saturday.

Drake Maye threw for 273 yards and four TDs, Omarion Hampton ran for 197 yards and a score, and Tez Walker, in just his second game after being ruled eligible, caught six passes for 132 yards and three touchdowns.

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1:30

UNC’s INT sets up Devontez Walker’s 3rd receiving TD

UNC’s Cedric Gray picks off Tyler Van Dyke, then Drake Maye finds Devontez Walker for their third pitch-and-catch touchdown.

Walker’s emergence is a thrilling sign for a UNC offense that already looks electric. The real story of the Heels’ 6-0 start, however, is the defense, which last year mostly featured matadors waving receivers past them to a genuinely good unit this season. Miami jumped out to a strong start Saturday, leading 17-14 at the half, but the Canes’ offense took a knee from there — with a fumble, an INT, a punt and a turnover on downs on its first four drives of the second half, by which time the Heels’ had pulled away. All that was left was for Mack Brown to continue his run of hilariously aggressive postgame handshakes by reaching into Mario Cristobal’s chest and ripping out his heart.

Until North Carolina’s win Saturday, teams named Miami had been undefeated vs. anyone not named Miami — with Miami (Ohio) at 5-1, its lone loss coming to Miami (Florida) in Week 1, and Miami (Florida) at 4-1, with its lone loss coming to itself last week. The good news for the Canes, however, is basketball season is just around the corner — a sport where Miami dominates and UNC didn’t even make the NCAA tournament last year.

Sadly for the Tar Heels, there’s at least a 40% chance the victory is overturned midweek when the NCAA decides Walker was actually ineligible this whole time.

JMU still unbeaten

Jordan McCloud threw for 259 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-13 win over Georgia Southern, giving James Madison its most emphatic victory since establishing the precedent of judicial review — or at least thumping Bucknell in Week 1.

JMU is now 6-0 on the season and 14-3 since moving up from FCS in 2022.

The Dukes’ defense has been terrific, and McCloud has emerged as one of the top transfer QBs of 2023 after spending the first five years of his career at Arizona and USF.

JMU’s reward for all of this success? It won’t be a Sun Belt title game appearance or a bowl game — both of which are off limits because the Dukes are still in Year 2 of their transition to FBS.

It’s a stupid rule, of course, but the NCAA has always been a bunch of Federalists.

Colorado collapses in non-Prime time

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0:35

Deion Sanders questions his team’s love for football

Deion Sanders reacts to Colorado’s huge blown lead in its loss to Stanford and questions whether his team can match his passion.

Credit where it’s due: Deion Sanders saw it all coming.

“Who makes these 8 o’clock games?” Sanders asked last week. “Dumbest thing ever. Stupidest thing ever invented in life. Who wants to stay up until 8 o’clock for a darn game?”

First, we must argue with Prime’s take that it’s the “stupidest thing ever invented” when we’ve got emotional support goldfish in Tallahassee.

Second, boy, was Prime right about everything else. By halftime Friday night, the Buffaloes had all popped a melatonin gummy, changed into their official Coach Prime pajamas (complete with cowboy hat and sunglasses-shaped eye mask) and focused on getting a good night’s rest.

Unfortunately for Colorado, Stanford‘s team is used to pulling all-nighters for their advanced theoretical physics exams, so the Cardinal kept on playing in the second half, erasing a 29-0 Buffs lead and winning 46-43 in double overtime.

Shedeur Sanders threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns, including two to a reemergent Travis Hunter, but his INT in the second OT frame proved to be the final dagger in Colorado’s hopes.

Was it embarrassing for Prime? Sure. Was it an indication that, perhaps, Colorado is a fun — but not exactly good — football team? You betcha.

Under-the-radar game of the week

The lame kids who all just pretend to love horrific offenses and ugly games were all over Iowa-Wisconsin on Saturday, but the real fans of the genre — the hipsters who were into Sickos Football before it was cool — know the real story of Week 7 was the showdown between Navy and Charlotte.

On one side was Navy’s option — of which very few of those options involve scoring points.

On the other side was the struggling 49ers — an offense so inept, points are tougher to find than sleeves on Biff Poggi’s sweatshirts.

Saturday’s game had everything: Stalled drives, ugly turnovers and more punts than Brian Ferentz’s end-of-season highlight film.

The two teams combined to complete 17 of 43 throws.

Fifteen drives lasted three plays or less.

Charlotte racked up 396 yards on punts — which was still 113 less than Navy.

Navy scored on a 69-yard pass and a 62-yard run. Those two plays accounted for 25% of the total offensive yardage in the game. (Oh, and that 62-yard touchdown capped a one-play, 57-yard drive because of both a penalty and also that these offenses were moving so slowly the earth began to rotate backwards underneath them).

So, next time your Iowa friends talk about how much they love punting, ask them if they’ve checked out the new Riley Riethman mixtape. The cool kids know what’s up.

Under-the-radar play of the week

Wake Forest‘s Demond Claiborne took a kickoff 96 yards for the score late in the second quarter against Virginia Tech on Saturday.

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0:43

Wake Forest’s Demond Claiborne returns kickoff 96 yards to the house

Wake Forest RB Demond Claiborne flies through the Virginia Tech defense for a 96-yard touchdown.

What makes this kick return so special? Well, for one, it came in the middle of 17 points scored in a 24-second span in the game — Virginia Tech field goal, Claiborne return and a Jaylin Lane 75-yard TD catch on the next scrimmage play — which is notable in a game between two teams that gave us the greatest Twitter meme of all time.

The other point that makes Claiborne’s score notable is it might be the only way Wake Forest is scoring any time soon. The Deacons have now lost three straight games in which they’ve scored a total of 34 points. Wake has had 35 offensive drives in that stretch — 13 of which ended in punts and nine in turnovers. So, yeah, special teams will need to be pretty good.

A decorator’s touch

This week, news broke that, amid a woeful 1-4 start, Pitt had installed a vase at the entrance to the football facility where players were to deposit their negative thoughts.

Sadly, it turns out the sadness vase — urn of anguish? jar of joylessness? decanter of despair? — was actually a bit more complicated than all that, and the story was all a big nothing.

But we’re not willing to let a good idea go just because Pat Narduzzi didn’t actually think of it first. So, with that in mind, we’re depositing all our negative emotions from Week 7 into the … uh … flagon of forlornness? Let’s go with that.

It’s time to kill the Kevin James meme

Much like “The King of Queens,” the memes were good for three or four laughs, but it has long since outlived its relevance. Need evidence? Maryland tried to psych out Illinois kicker Caleb Griffin by showing an oversized — “More like life-sized if he keeps up with the pasta bolognese,” says Leah Remini (insert laugh track here) — image of Kevin James on the jumbotron behind the goal posts.

Instead, Griffin drilled a 43-yarder for the winner as time expired, giving the Illini a 27-24 victory.

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0:56

Illinois stuns Maryland on last-second 43-yard FG

Illinois players go wild after Caleb Griffin’s 43-yard field goal gives them a 27-24 win over the Terrapins.

Like Maryland’s hot starts, Twitter memes were never made to last. So let’s turn the page and focus our kicker-related psychological warfare through more traditional means, like ordering two dozen pizzas to his hotel room at 3 a.m. or telling him Taylor Swift is in the press box and is really excited to meet him if he makes it.

The Air Raid is not ready for the Big Ten

Phil Longo took his high-powered Air Raid offense to Wisconsin this offseason with a promise of injecting a sense of modernity to the staid Big Ten.

Turns out, the Big Ten is utterly uninterested in any offense invented after the Industrial Revolution.

Wisconsin lost QB Tanner Mordecai to injury, failed to throw a TD and converted just 2 of 17 third-down tries in a 15-6 loss to Iowa.

Oh, sure, Wisconsin still held Iowa to just 237 yards of offense, and the Hawkeyes mustered just nine first downs in the game, but that all went according to script. It’s Iowa’s 13th win of the playoff era when scoring less than 20 points — more than any other team in FBS. In fact, Iowa wins 33% of the time it fails to hit 20, while the rest of FBS wins at just a tick better than 10% of the time.

Iowa did punt 10 times for 506 yards though, which in a way, is its own version of a well-executed Air Raid.

Twitter jinxes

We may have tweeted something negative about Stanford at halftime Friday night, and that aged poorly.

We did it again Saturday, noting that Kansas QB Jason Bean was having himself a day.

After that tweet, Bean threw two picks, had two more drives end on downs and Oklahoma State erased an eight-point deficit to win 39-32, as Ollie Gordon ran for 168 yards and caught six passes for another 116.

We take full responsibility and apologize to the citizens of Lawrence, Kansas.

Max Johnson as the world’s best suburban dad QB jokes

It’s been one of the few joys of watching Texas A&M football this year that we’ve been able to crack a few jokes at Johnson’s expense because he’s seemingly been playing college ball for 23 years. For a while, it was all in good fun, and Johnson seemed to have injected some actual life into the Aggies’ offense.

On Saturday, the Aggies lost in agonizing fashion for the second straight week, with Johnson tossing interceptions on each of his last two drives and falling to Tennessee, 20-13.

Afterward, all that was left for Johnson to do was throw the team’s helmets and shoulder pads into the back of his Dodge Caravan, distribute the individually wrapped PB&Js with the crusts cut off and get to work on those reports his boss had asked for Thursday.

Michigan State blew a 24-6 fourth-quarter lead to Rutgers, with the Scarlet Knights scoring three times in less than five minutes of game time and winning, 27-24.

We’re going to suggest Michigan State just sits out the rest of the season and starts fresh in 2024. Nothing good can come from continuing to play football this year. Just sit back, enjoy the Urban Meyer rumors, watch some basketball and we can all pretend this year didn’t happen when spring practice starts in March.

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CFP Bubble Watch after Tuesday’s ranking: Who needs a win during Rivalry Week?

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CFP Bubble Watch after Tuesday's ranking: Who needs a win during Rivalry Week?

Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.

With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.

Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.

With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.

Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.

First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.

First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin

Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech

Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.

First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.

Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.

Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

ACC

Would be in: Miami

Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.

First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.

Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.

Group of 5

Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.

Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.

Bracket

Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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Sports

Week 14 Anger Index: Why Notre Dame deserves the benefit of the doubt

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2 hours ago

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November 26, 2025

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Week 14 Anger Index: Why Notre Dame deserves the benefit of the doubt

  • David HaleNov 25, 2025, 08:28 PM ET

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    • College football reporter.
    • Joined ESPN in 2012.
    • Graduate of the University of Delaware.

We don’t talk nearly enough about luck in sports.

It’s only reasonable to want to believe the best team always wins, that the outcome of a game is the reward for a better process, that, in the end, we all get what we deserve.

But then you watch 10 minutes of Florida State football and it’s impossible to deny that there are football gods at work and they can be awfully vengeful.

And so it is that, at this late point in the season, the College Football Playoff rankings still hinge, in no small part, on a botched extra point at the end of Notre Dame-Texas A&M.

We can look back at Miami‘s game against SMU on Nov. 1 — a game that, with 2 minutes to go the Canes had a 90% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s metrics — and consider it a bad loss, then a week later, see Oregon — with less than a 40% chance of beating Iowa with 2 minutes remaining — pull off a comeback and have it constitute a critical point on the Ducks’ résumé.

Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma‘s yardage but lost, Ole Miss gave up 526 yards to Arkansas and won, Georgia has trailed in the second half five times this year but has just one loss to show for it.

These things happen, and while there’s clearly valuable data involved — Georgia wins those games, because the Dawgs are really good — any time we’re discussing a one-game sample size, there’s room for ample debate over what matters and what doesn’t.

The committee’s job is to counterbalance the fickleness of luck with a calculated, rational, repeatable process of evaluation that, if applied again and again by dozens of different people, would largely yield the same results; something akin to scientific testing, a way to filter out the noise and get to what matters most. “The process,” as everyone from Nick Saban to Michael Lombardi have called it.

And yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the committee’s process really is. Even when it’s explained — Miami isn’t in the same bucket as Notre Dame, so they can’t be compared directly, for example — the logic often crumbles under the slightest bit of scrutiny.

Instead, the committee has mostly relied on its own luck, and each year, by the time the final rankings are revealed, the 13 games played on the field provide enough clarity that most reasonable people will proclaim the committee got things right, save for the occasional reminder to Florida State that, yes, the football gods are not Seminoles fans.

This year though, it’s increasingly likely the committee’s luck could run out.

We have one full weekend of games left. There are reasonably 16 teams who’ll make a case as to why they should earn one of the seven coveted at-large spots. Without a little luck in Week 14, the committee’s going to have some incredibly hard choices to make.

And that means we’ve got plenty of outrage left to send the committee’s way.

This past week seemed to be the apex of the biggest rankings debate: Notre Dame or Miami?

The argument here is easy to understand. The committee has consistently had the Irish well ahead of the Hurricanes, despite both teams having the same record and Miami holding a head-to-head win.

But you know what’s even easier to understand? BYU has a better record than both.

In fact, let’s look at some résumés.

Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 19, next best vs. No. 21. Loss to SP+ No. 2. Two wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 5 strength of record.

Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 9, next best vs. No. 25. Loss to SP+ No. 3. Six wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 6 strength of record.

Both look like pretty obvious playoff teams, right?

Well Team A just moved up a spot in the rankings, seems assured not just of making the playoff, but of hosting a home game, and no one seems to be arguing about its spot in the rankings. That’s Oregon at No. 6.

Team B would currently be our first team out, a team with a résumé that shows equally impressive wins, an equally understandable loss and a far more impressive breadth of quality opponents. And yet, no one seems to be arguing much about BYU’s spot in the rankings either.

Why is it that the Cougars — the forgotten one-loss team with a higher ranked win than Oregon or Notre Dame and a better loss than Alabama or Oklahoma — sit at No. 11 and no one seems to care?

We get the frustration over Miami’s placement. There’s plenty of anger to go around. But don’t let BYU get lost in the shuffle. The Cougars’ résumé holds up against all the two-loss teams and is on par with Oregon and Ole Miss. Somehow, the committee — and nearly everyone else outside of Provo — seems to be ignoring it.

Wait, are we really defending Notre Dame here? Hey, somebody’s got to do it.

Let’s take a closer look at the Irish, who’ve become the punching bag for every fan frustrated with the committee’s rankings.

Right now, Notre Dame is effectively the golfer who wrapped up his round early and is waiting in the clubhouse, hoping no one else makes too many birdies. The Irish are safely in the field, and only a road trip to lowly Stanford is left on the docket.

But as the committee’s rankings hold steady week after week, there has been more and more time to debate the merits of Notre Dame’s résumé, and when we reach the end of championship week, it’s hard to ignore that one team aiming for a playoff bid doesn’t actually play in a conference.

So, does Notre Dame really deserve the benefit of the doubt?

In short: Heck yeah.

The Irish have five wins against bowl-eligible opponents — more than Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Texas Tech.

Both of Notre Dame’s losses were one-possession affairs against top-12 opponents. The loss to Texas A&M came down to a fluke occurrence, as the Irish flubbed a point after try.

Notre Dame’s game control — about as good an estimation as we have for the eye test — puts the Irish ahead of everyone but Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon.

In four games since Nov. 1, Notre Dame has beaten its opposition by a combined score of 181-42, lambasting Syracuse so badly in Week 13 that Fran Brown might not shower for a month.

Look at any of the underlying metrics — explosive play rates, defensive stop rates, Jeremiyah Love being awesome rates — and Notre Dame is as good as anyone in the country.

So yes, we get the more logical debates about Miami’s Week 1 win or Alabama’s superior schedule, but the bottom line is, outside of Ohio State, there’s probably no team in the country playing better, more balanced football than the Irish. That probably shouldn’t be the only consideration, but as we debate which teams ought to be docked a few points in the rankings, Notre Dame probably shouldn’t be at the front of the line either.

Yes, Miami has a good argument against the committee’s treatment of the Hurricanes. The committee, too, seems to acknowledge under-appreciating Miami early on, and is adjusting by slowly moving the Canes up one spot each week, hoping that’ll be enough to appease the masses.

But here’s a question: What if Miami’s real beef should be with the ACC, not with the committee?

For each of the past two years, there has been widespread consensus that the ACC’s best team is Miami. But, barring some truly high-level chaos in Week 14 — something the ACC is apt to provide — the Canes won’t be playing for a conference championship again.

When leagues were smaller and had two divisions, the idea of pitting one division champ against the other made intuitive sense. But with expansion and the end of division play, what we’ve gotten is wildly diverse scheduling and the potential for confounding tiebreakers to ultimately decide which two teams get to play for a conference title.

In the Big Ten and SEC, where winning the league isn’t a do-or-die proposition, that’s fine. In the ACC, where only the champion might get a playoff bid and there’s a real chance that six different teams will tie atop the conference with a 6-2 league record — well, that’s a big issue.

So, why not just tweak the rules of how a conference championship game is seeded? What if one spot goes to the team with the best conference record and the other spot goes to the next highest ranked team? Doing so would ensure both the most deserving team (best record) and best team (highest ranked) got a shot, and it would’ve ended any concerns about the ACC being passed by multiple Group of 5 leagues, because a mediocre team like Duke would’ve had no shot at winning the league.

The ACC has bent over backward to try to find unique solutions to potentially existential problems in recent years. This is a change that would be forward thinking, easy and beneficial to the league’s playoff prospects.

It just won’t come in time to save Miami in 2025.

Remember last week when Tulane was also No. 24, just ahead of Arizona State, and behind Illinois, Houston and Missouri, who all lost? It might seem reasonable, given that precondition, that Tulane would then move up, say, three spots or so, while remaining a tick ahead of Arizona State.

But no, a week later, the Green Wave still check in at No. 24, a spot the committee seems to have set aside as “Where we put a Group of 5 team,” like the junk drawer in your kitchen that holds packing tape and birthday candles and those weird scented oils your mother-in-law ordered for you off TV — a placeholder for all the stuff you don’t know what else to do with.

In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter. As long as Tulane stays ahead of its compatriots in the Group of 5 — winning the American, out-ranking James Madison — the Green Wave will make the playoff. And perhaps that’s all that matters.

But of the teams that jumped Tulane in the rankings this week are Arizona State — still with a chance to win the Big 12 — and Pitt and SMU, who have decent odds of making the ACC title game. Georgia Tech, despite a miserable loss to Pitt, also held firm ahead of the Green Wave.

A year ago, the ACC’s championship game implosion earned Clemson a bid into the playoff, but also shifted the ACC behind Boise State, the best Group of 5 champion, allowing the Broncos to land a bye. The stakes have changed for 2025-26 — the top four conference champs are no longer guaranteed an off week — but that doesn’t mean Tulane should be fine settling for the 12-seed either.

Tulane’s strength of record is ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pitt. If one of those teams claims the ACC’s playoff berth, what’s the rationale for putting them ahead of the Green Wave? And the difference between the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed might be about traveling to the SEC or the Big 12 for a playoff game.

The Group of 5 has largely been set to the side by this committee all year, so none of this comes as a surprise. But Tulane — or JMU or Navy or North Texas or San Diego State — all deserve to be judged on the merits of their résumés, not by which conference they’re affiliated with.

The bottom of the top 25 seems to be prime real estate for the ACC, but the one ACC team who might most deserve one of those coveted spots between 20 and 25 is nowhere to be found.

Wake Forest has the same record as SMU, and it beat the Mustangs head-to-head.

Wake Forest has a better overall résumé than Georgia Tech, and it only lost to the Yellow Jackets (in overtime) as a result of an officiating call the ACC later apologized for.

Wake Forest is a game behind Virginia in the standings, and the Deacons have a head-to-head win over the No. 18 Cavaliers, too.

Look, Wake Forest doesn’t ask for much. The Deacons are like the friend who’s always willing to pick you up from the airport, only better because they’ll probably bring along a box of Krispy Kreme. So if some ACC team that no one respects is going to be ranked 23rd regardless, why not Wake? Because the next time a committee member’s connection gets delayed out of CLT, it won’t be Pitt offering to pick them up and give them an air mattress to crash on. That’s strictly a Wake Forest thing.

Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (10-1, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (10-1, unranked and now losing their coach), Navy Midshipmen (8-2, unranked), Utah Utes (9-2, No. 13 after being this week’s team that somehow isn’t as good as Miami anymore), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, No. 10 and far too close to the edge of the playoff for comfort)

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NDSU announces extension for coach Polasek

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3 hours ago

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November 26, 2025

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NDSU announces extension for coach Polasek

  • ESPN News Services

Nov 25, 2025, 05:24 PM ET

North Dakota State and head coach Tim Polasek have agreed on a contract extension, athletic director Matt Larsen announced Tuesday.

The deal is for seven years, which will carry it through the 2033 season, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel. It also includes a significant raise, additional staff money and more program resources, a move that sources said was pushed for by Larsen. It comes as Polasek had been pursued by multiple Football Bowl Subdivision schools.

“After several productive conversations with coach Polasek, we have affirmed our commitment to both him and the long-term success of NDSU football,” said Larsen, who did not divulge details about the length or value of the extension.

North Dakota State is 12-0 this year, won its record 10th Football Championship Subdivision title in 2024 in Polasek’s first year and is the No. 1 overall seed in the current FCS playoffs.

“Coach Polasek’s impact on the football program over 12 seasons, and especially the past two seasons as our head coach has been remarkable,” Larsen said in his statement.

Polasek was an assistant for the Bison’s first two titles in Frisco, Texas, at the end of the 2011 and 2012 seasons and had two different spells with the team as an assistant before being hired as head coach.

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