College football Week 8 preview: How will the unbeatens fare this weekend?
Week 8 is here and the number of undefeated teams keeps dwindling, so which ones will be left standing at the end? Well, nine of 11 unbeaten teams are in action this weekend, including Penn State at Ohio State, where one of those squads will suffer its first loss of the season.
Elsewhere, defenses have been impressive from more than just the undefeated group and our reporters break down everything to know heading into this weekend.
What’s on deck for CFB’s undefeated teams in Week 8 and beyond?
Georgia (bye) and Liberty (Tuesday win vs. Middle Tennessee) do not play this weekend, so as they regroup, we’ll focus on the rest of the Week 8 slate.
Washington 6-0 vs. Arizona State
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Huskies a 14.2% chance of not just winning out through the regular season, but through the Pac-12 title game. Which is one way to say it probably isn’t going to happen.
Of the 11 remaining unbeaten teams, six have better odds. Looking at the schedule, it’s easy to see why. The Huskies have three ranked teams left before finishing the regular season against Washington State in the Apple Cup. The good news for the Huskies, though, is that if they end up being measured against other one-loss teams, their strength of schedule at the end of the year will be a benefit.
With Arizona State and Stanford the next two weeks, there is a clear expectation the Huskies will be 8-0. That’s when it gets tricky. They go to USC, home against Utah and to Oregon State. That’s three very different opponents that will pose significantly different challenges. So while the Huskies should be favored in all three, the margin for error will be tight. — Kyle Bonagura
Penn State 6-0 (at Ohio State)
After losing to Ohio State in 2018, Penn State coach James Franklin sounded off on how the program had risen from average to good to great but had yet to reach an elite level. He spoke emotionally about how PSU couldn’t be comfortable with where it stood and needed to do “all the little things” to reach the next level.
“We’ve been knocking at the door long enough,” Franklin said then.
Four more Ohio State losses later, Penn State’s time to break through has come. The Lions have some talent edges over the Buckeyes, especially on defense, and boast a first-year starting quarterback in Drew Allar, who might have a higher ceiling. Much has been made of Penn State’s conservative approach with Allar, who averages just 6.93 yards per attempt, 93rd nationally, and has only 11 completions of 20 yards or longer (tied for 114th nationally).
As good as the Nittany Lions are on defense — No. 1 nationally in fewest yards allowed, rushing defense, passing defense and sacks per game — they likely will need to cut it loose more, beginning Saturday at Ohio State. But Franklin is pleased with Allar’s patience as a young QB.
“Every quarterback wants to throw the corner route or the go route or the post,” Franklin said. “Who is throwing checkdowns in their backyard, right? … He’s doing a really good job of keeping the main thing the main thing, which is protecting the football, trying to create explosive plays when they’re there, but not forcing them.”
Penn State’s season will be shaped by how it performs Saturday and Nov. 11 against Michigan. The Lions are 4-14 against Ohio State and Michigan under Franklin, who is 80-22 against everyone else while at the school. Penn State hasn’t beaten both heavyweights since 2008. The Michigan matchup, even more so than Ohio State, has become especially difficult for Franklin’s teams.
But the opportunity is there, and Penn State has the pieces in place to take the step Franklin has wanted for years. — Adam Rittenberg
Ohio State 6-0 (vs. Penn State)
Ohio State doesn’t really look like a team poised to run the table, but its dominant play in the past six quarters suggests a shift is coming. The Buckeyes outclassed Maryland in the second half Oct. 7, and never let Purdue get traction in last week’s 41-7 road win.
Obviously, coach Ryan Day’s team will need to maintain and elevate its play this week against Penn State, which looks like a better version of the squad that held a fourth-quarter lead over Ohio State last year until JT Tuimoloau was prolific in the closing minutes. Ohio State’s offense needs quarterback Kyle McCord to keep progressing — he has five touchdowns, no interceptions and 596 passing yards in his past two games, but has had some hiccups against pressure — while also finding greater balance on offense and protecting better. Penn State leads the nation in sacks (4.5 per game) and is tied for seventh nationally in overall team pressures (99).
“This will be our biggest challenge to date,” Day said Tuesday. “They’re very twitchy, very quick, they get after the quarterback at a high level. Both ends are NFL players for sure. So our tackles, in particular, are going to have to do a great job.”
Ohio State’s defense could ultimately be the unit that propels the Buckeyes to an undefeated season. The unit doesn’t pop in any of the popular categories — sacks (105th), takeaways (tied for 92nd), tackles for loss (tied for 82nd) — but has limited big plays and ultimately kept points off the board. Coordinator Jim Knowles’ less-is-more approach could pay off this week against a solid but not spectacular Penn State offense, and ultimately against a marauding Michigan team on the road. Knowles on Tuesday said he doesn’t like the bend-but-don’t-break label, classifying his defense simply as: “One that prevents points.”
The Buckeyes’ schedule outside of Penn State and Michigan is manageable, especially since Wisconsin just lost starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai to injury. But finding a way to outlast arguably Penn State’s best team since 2016 will be a key first step.
“There’s a lot riding on every game,” Day said. “We know that and so it’s my job to bring it every week, every Saturday and push as hard as I can.” — Adam Rittenberg
Michigan 7-0 (at Michigan State)
Michigan has started the season undefeated through seven games for the third year in a row. The Wolverines have faced an easier schedule so far, but have dominated opponents week by week.
Michigan is the first team since 1936 to score 30 or more points while allowing 10 or fewer points in each of its first seven games. Easier opponents or not, that is impressive and Michigan has been a balanced team throughout.
The Wolverines have scored 30 or more points in 10 straight games, which is the longest streak in program history. As it stands, the team has a receiver in Roman Wilson, who is tied for most touchdown receptions among all FBS players (9), and a running back in Blake Corum, who is tied for the most rushing touchdowns among all FBS backs (12).
It’s not the Michigan of old, when opponents could load up the box and just try to stop the run, as the passing game has been prominently displayed this season.
But November is going to be the tough test for Michigan. The team will face Penn State on the road, Maryland and Ohio State in November. Happy Valley is never an easy place to play and the Nittany Lions are playing outstanding football. Ohio State has lost twice in a row to Michigan and will do anything it can to stop that streak.
Despite the way Michigan is playing, those games will be tough tests, but the Wolverines have described themselves as bullies and the team that wants to bring the adversity to its opponents. How good this team is and how far it can go will depend on the November results.
“There was a real calm, a real understanding that when we get punched in the mouth, we’re going to respond,” coach Jim Harbaugh said. “That’s what’s going to happen. Everybody has that kind of faith in the leadership of our team, the character of our team. There’s a devotion to the fundamentals of Michigan football and we just go to work at responding.
“That’s the best strategy you can do and that’s what we lean back on.” — Tom VanHaaren
The Sooners rank second in FPI, just behind Ohio State, but have the highest probability of winning out of any undefeated team at 41.1%. Their remaining schedule ranks 45th in strength as the rest of the league, with the exception of Texas, has had wildly unpredictable results.
But OU’s Dillon Gabriel has been unflappable, leading a Sooners offense that is averaging 45.2 points per game (fourth-best nationally), while Danny Stutsman headlines a defense allowing just 14 ppg, seventh best. Now that the annual pressure cooker against Texas is over, with Gabriel delivering a legendary comeback drive with no timeouts, going 75 yards in just over a minute for a 34-30 win, OU can think bigger.
“Our mindset is that we’ve already put all the pressure on ourselves,” Oklahoma defensive end Ethan Downs told reporters on Monday. “We have high expectations, and we have goals. The goals are still the same as they were before the hype and after. We appreciate all the recognition, but our goals exceed far beyond that. What happens in the building and what happens in every practice is what we’re focused on. It hasn’t changed.”
The biggest remaining challengers for the Sooners include a trip to Stillwater on Nov. 4 in front of an emotional Oklahoma State crowd for what will be the last Bedlam rivalry game before the Sooners depart for the SEC, facing a Cowboys program that has surged back to life following a 33-7 loss at home to South Alabama and another at Iowa State.
After UCF, the Sooners will travel to Kansas to face a Jayhawks squad that can score on anyone. They’ll finish the season with a home game against TCU, which also appeared to find its footing with a new quarterback last weekend. In between, the Sooners will play a gritty West Virginia team and endure a trip to Provo for BYU’s only conference battle with them. All are winnable, but the Big 12 never seems to follow the script. But as it stands now, FPI projects the Sooners have a 70.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 39.9% chance to make the title game, both best in the country. — Dave Wilson
North Carolina 6-0 (vs. Virginia)
North Carolina hasn’t found itself ranked in the top 10 often, but when it happens, it doesn’t typically go well for the Tar Heels. Since Mack Brown left Chapel Hill the first time in 1998, UNC has played five games as a top-10 team. It’s lost four of them.
Well, UNC is 6-0 and ranked 10th. Time for an implosion?
“We’ve got to handle success,” Brown said. “That’s something we haven’t done very well around here. To be a great team, you’ve got to play to a standard, and that standard is to win every game.”
UNC was last in the top 10 in the 2021 preseason poll, and it quickly lost to Virginia Tech in the opener. He doesn’t foresee such a stumble this week, with Virginia on the docket.
For one, the Cavaliers are scuffling at 1-5 — though they won their last game, vs. William and Mary, and are coming off an open date. More importantly, Brown said, the focus for his team is different this time around.
In last week’s win over Miami, the Heels ran for 235 yards, Drake Maye threw four touchdowns and the defense forced four turnovers. And yet, Brown said the team was as critical of itself after Saturday’s victory as it has been after any win since he returned to Chapel Hill five years ago.
“We’re at a different place with this team and this staff,” he said.
The team certainly is in a different place on defense, with last year’s overwhelmed unit now playing with confidence.
It’s different in the run game, where Omarion Hampton has blossomed as one of the nation’s most productive runners.
And it’s far different in the passing game, with Tez Walker showing why UNC was so eager to get him on the field after he had three touchdown grabs last week.
But more than anything, North Carolina is different in its expectations.
Two years ago, when Brown announced to his team it was ranked eighth in the preseason polls, the players erupted in cheers. On Sunday, when he let them know they were 10th, no one budged.
“I think they appreciate being where they are,” he said, “and they know it’s fleeting. So you better win.” — David Hale
Florida State 6-0 (vs. Duke)
Of all the undefeated teams listed here, only Oklahoma has a better chance to finish unbeaten than Florida State, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Seminoles have a cakewalk on their remaining schedule. Whether Duke has Riley Leonard available or not — he remains day to day with a high ankle sprain — the Blue Devils defense will present FSU’s biggest challenge since Clemson. Duke ranks No. 4 in the nation in scoring defense, one of four schools in the country giving up less than 10 points per game.
“You look at the standard of good defenses. This is one that you would point to,” Florida State coach Mike Norvell said. “All 11 guys on their defense tackle, they can run, cover. They’re disruptive in the schemes that they present. Got really good pressure packages that challenge offenses. You can see the confidence in how they play. These are the games you love being a part of. It’s going to be some fun X’s and O’s to see who can try to create any type of advantage.”
Indeed, on the flip side, Florida State is one of nine offenses in the country averaging more than 40 points per game. It has finally found a nice balance between its run and passing game, and will have to match the intensity and physicality that Duke plays with — particularly on defense. If Duke can control the line of scrimmage and force the Seminoles into mistakes, the Blue Devils will give themselves a chance to win.
Beyond Duke, Florida State still has both its in-state rivals left on the schedule — Miami at home Nov. 11 and at Florida on Nov. 25 — and a tricky game at Pitt on Nov. 4. The Panthers are 2-4, but they just took down unbeaten Louisville. Doing it again should not be out of the question. — Andrea Adelson
Granted, things just got trickier with the loss of quarterback Zac Larrier to a knee injury. His timetable is uncertain at the moment; coach Troy Calhoun said only that Larrier would “likely be out for a while” and that he didn’t know how long. Still, Air Force has quite a bit going for it in the quest to get to 12-0 or 13-0.
For one thing, backup quarterback Jensen Jones has experience and has posted similar numbers in a smaller sample. Jones will still have a particularly explosive set of backs at his disposal, too, feeding players like John Lee Eldridge III (10.1 yards per carry) and Owen Burk (6.3). His defense should remain awesome as well: Air Force has been awfully stingy in recent years and boasts A-plus playmakers in linebackers Bo Richter, PJ Ramsey and Alec Mock (combined: 18.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks) and safety Trey Taylor. Calhoun has led this team for nearly 20 years, and this is one of his most talented casts.
Plus, the remaining schedule is awfully navigable. Granted, the next four games are all away from home, and they include rivalry contests against both Navy and Army, but these next four opponents have a combined record of 10-15. The Falcons’ path to 10-0 is solid, and they might have a chance to get Larrier back before they finish the season against 5-1 UNLV, Boise State and whoever they might play in a theoretical MWC championship game.
But that’s down the road. This week the focus is on Navy. The Falcons have won three in a row in this series, but they were by diminishing margins — 40-7 in 2020, 23-3 in 2021, 13-10 in 2022 — and Navy has won two in a row after a 1-3 start. Taking down an increasingly confident rival with your backup quarterback never qualifies as easy. — Bill Connelly
James Madison 6-0 (at Marshall on Thursday)
The Dukes have only two games remaining against teams that are over .500, beginning Thursday night with Marshall (4-2) and in two weeks (Nov. 4) against Georgia State (5-1). Fresh off its 41-13 dispatching of Georgia Southern last week, James Madison’s offense is in high gear — tallying at least 31 points in five of its six games.
In its second season as an FBS program, Curt Cignetti has led a successful transition to the Sun Belt for a program that enjoyed four seasons of at least 12 wins and three berths in the FCS national championship game since 2016 (including winning the national title in 2016). Ineligible to play in the postseason as its two-year transition to Division I concludes, James Madison has a carrot of an undefeated season in reach. It hasn’t finished unbeaten since 1975 (9-0-1).
Whether the program gets there may depend on its offense (34.5 ppg) continuing to put the foot on the gas behind senior quarterback Jordan McCloud (1,432 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions) and hope its defense tightens things a bit. — Blake Baumgartner
Which defenses have impressed so far this season?
North Carolina
The North Carolina defense has been impressive when you consider where this group was a year ago. Headed into the season, many wondered how much improvement we would see from a group that ranked either near or at the bottom in the ACC in nearly every statistical category in 2022. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik promised the group would play much better in Year 2 in the system, and he has been right. North Carolina is allowing nearly 100 yards and 10 points per game fewer than last year; its run defense is allowing 50 fewer yards per game; it already has reached its interception total for all of last year (9); it has 16 sacks, one away from the total last year; and it already has more tackles for loss (35) than last year. Kaimon Rucker has emerged at the rush end position, the revamped secondary has played better thanks, in part, to key transfer addition Alijah Huzzie, and Cedric Gray has developed into a terrific all-around linebacker. — Adelson
The last drive against Oklahoma notwithstanding, the Texas defense has been the difference in its turnaround this year. The Longhorns have already faced Alabama, a solid Kansas offense (though Jalon Daniels did not play) and a stellar Oklahoma unit, and rank 15th nationally in points allowed (16.3) and are allowing 323.3 total yards, 26th-best. The Longhorns are allowing rushing first downs 14.3% of plays, first nationally, and are eighth overall in allowing a conversion on 28.4% of third downs. — Wilson
Penn State
Michigan’s defense has been dominant and the numbers that unit is putting up are notable, but Penn State’s defense has edged the Wolverines in many top categories. The Nittany Lions are first among all FBS programs in yards allowed per game, giving up 193.7 yards. The team is third overall in rush yards allowed (72.5) and first in pass yards allowed per game (121.2). The team is also second among all FBS programs in sacks with 27, first in opponent completion percentage, first in pass touchdowns allowed, giving up just one all season, and the list goes on with this defense. Penn State will have its work cut out for it in the latter half of the season, with Ohio State, Maryland and Michigan, but the defense has been nearly flawless. — VanHaaren
How good has the Utah defense been? Consider this: The Utes are 5-1 and are ranked No. 14 in the country despite having the nation’s No. 111-ranked scoring offense. That’s not possible without an elite defense. The Utes rank No. 5 nationally in scoring (12.2 ppg) and have forced opponents to go three-and-out 46.5% of the time, the third-best mark in the country. — Bonagura
For a change, it’s not Georgia or not Alabama that has grabbed the headlines defensively the first part of the season in the SEC, although both are outstanding. It’s Tim Banks’ Tennessee defense that has stolen the show and blossomed into one of the most improved units in the country after finishing 91st nationally a year ago in total defense.
The Vols lead the SEC with just 10 touchdowns allowed in six games and are second to Georgia in yards per play allowed (4.41) and second to Texas A&M in sacks per game (4). Sophomore defensive end James Pearce Jr. has emerged as one of the top pass-rushers in the country, and only in their 29-16 loss to Florida have the Vols given up more than two touchdowns in a game. In three of their six contests, they’ve allowed just one touchdown, and the two touchdowns UTSA scored came in the second half after Tennessee led 31-0 at the half.
The matchup Saturday against Alabama should be especially interesting. Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country at sacking the quarterback (24), while Alabama is one of the worst at giving up sacks (31). — Chris Low
Quotes of the week
“You can’t sit around and eat the poisonous cheese. You can’t listen to the talk. You can’t pat yourself on the back, because we’re human beings. How are we going to play? Are we going to walk around all week and be cool and talk about all these stats and about how many times we’ve been 6-0?” — North Carolina coach Mack Brown on getting complacent after an undefeated start.
“We’re in the ass-kicking business, and business is booming.” — Linebacker Mike Barrett said after Michigan’s win against Indiana.
“I was frustrated and kicked something I shouldn’t have kicked and thought I was OK, and then the adrenaline of the game wore off.” — Shane Beamer on how he broke his foot following South Carolina’s loss last week.
“Are they in love with this game or are they in like with it?” — Deion Sanders’ comments following Colorado’s loss to Stanford.
HOUSTON — Astros starter Framber Valdez said he apologized to catcher Cesar Salazar after hitting him in the chest with a pitch Tuesday night, but the left-hander insisted it wasn’t intentional.
Valdez appeared to shake off Salazar on a 1-0 pitch with the bases loaded and Trent Grisham of the New York Yankees at the plate in the fifth inning. Salazar then urged Valdez to step off the mound, but he proceeded with the pitch, which Grisham launched to deep left field to give New York a 6-0 lead in an eventual 7-1 win.
On the second pitch to the next batter, Valdez hit Salazar in the chest with a 93 mph pitch, raising questions about whether he was upset about what happened in the Grisham at-bat and if it was intended.
Valdez said it was not.
“What happened with us, we just got crossed up,” Valdez said in Spanish through an interpreter. “I called for that pitch, I threw it and we got crossed up. We went down to the dugout and I excused myself with him and I said sorry to him and I take full responsibility for that.”
Valdez was then asked directly if he did it on purpose.
“No,” he said. “It was not intentional.”
Valdez and Salazar were talking when reporters entered the clubhouse after the game, and Valdez said they had sorted things out.
“We were able to talk through it,” he said. “We spoke after the game … at his locker and everything’s good between us. It’s just stuff that happens in baseball. But yeah, we talked through it and we’re good.”
Salazar also was asked about what happened on the pitch where he was hit.
“The stadium was loud,” he said. “I thought I pressed the button, but I pressed the wrong button. I was expecting another pitch, but it wasn’t it.”
Salazar said Valdez didn’t hit him on purpose.
“No, me and Framber we actually have a really good relationship,” he said.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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David Schoenfield
With each postseason expansion throughout MLB’s history, the value of division races has diluted. In the wild-card era, you can finish in second place — or even third or fourth — and still win the World Series.
Does that make September less exciting? There’s no doubt it brings more teams and more fans into the mix. And a big game is still a big game, even if there is slightly less tension in a Red Sox-Yankees or Mets-Phillies series than there otherwise might be if both teams already know they’re going to make the playoffs.
Thus, we’re mostly left with wild-card races and battles for seeding to occupy our time and scoreboard watching. That still offers plenty of fun, still makes September the best month on the baseball calendar, and there’s still a lot of sweating going on when your closer walks two batters in the ninth trying to protect a one-run lead. The 12 postseason slots aren’t completely locked up, so if you’re a fan of the Mets or Mariners, you can’t breathe easily just yet — not until a playoff spot is clinched and the champagne uncorked.
September is here, believe it or not. We have races to decide. Let’s rank their potential excitement level over the final month.
1. National League West race
Standings: Los Angeles Dodgers up 2 games on San Diego Padres
What’s at stake: This is the best rivalry going on in the majors right now. The teams don’t like each other, the fans don’t like each other, and there’s still that element of David trying to knock out Goliath as the Padres seek their first division title since 2006 and their first World Series title ever. The teams have met three times in the NL Division Series since 2020 — with the Dodgers winning in 2020 and 2024 and the Padres victorious in 2022 — and with another rematch possible, home-field advantage could be key.
Do the Dodgers need to win the division? No, they will still be more focused on getting the pitching staff healthy and ready for October than on getting consumed in the race to win the division. It would probably mean more to the Padres, who want to finally beat their I-5 rivals in something besides that one playoff series. On the other hand, San Diego is probably a little better equipped for a short wild-card series, as it can ride its bullpen for the two or three games.
Series to watch: Somehow, the schedule-makers thought it would be a good idea to not have the Dodgers playing the Padres in September. The Dodgers finish with a road trip to Arizona and Seattle while the Padres end at home against Milwaukee and Arizona. The Dodgers won the season series, so they own the tiebreaker.
Dodgers player to watch: Blake Snell has been a notable second-half pitcher in his career and has a 2.54 ERA since returning from the injured list in August, but he hasn’t been quite as dominant as when he gets on one of his patented hot streaks (such as the second half last year, when he had a 1.45 ERA and .130 average allowed). The Dodgers won last season despite a beat-up rotation that wasn’t even all that effective in the playoffs. But the bullpen has been nowhere near as strong this season as in 2024, so they’ll need that dominant version of Snell down the stretch and in October.
Padres player to watch: Ramon Laureano has been the team’s best hitter since he was acquired at the trade deadline, slashing .305/.354/.581 with seven home runs and 23 RBIs in 28 games. He helped keep the offense afloat in August as Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. each hit just one home run on the month and Jackson Merrill has been injured. Laureano’s production has been great, but the Padres need more power from their big two.
2. American League East
Standings: Toronto Blue Jays up 3 games on New York Yankees, 3.5 games on Boston Red Sox
What’s at stake: This has been the wildest division race all season. The Blue Jays were eight games back in late May when they fell under .500 but have now held first place since July 3. The Yankees fell as many as 6.5 games back in August before cleaning up against the Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox this past week to draw closer. The Red Sox were 41-44 on June 30, but only the Brewers have a better record since that date. The Yankees have a plus-134 run differential, whereas it’s plus-56 for the Blue Jays and plus-102 for the Red Sox, so you wonder why they’re even in this position. However, New York is 5-8 in extra-inning games (the Blue Jays are 8-4) and hasn’t played well against Toronto and Boston (5-15).
Series to watch: Blue Jays at Yankees (Friday-Sunday); Red Sox at Blue Jays (Sept. 23-25); Yankees at Red Sox (Sept. 12-14). All three season series have already been clinched: The Blue Jays over the Red Sox and Yankees and the Red Sox over the Yankees. That will leave the Yankees on the short end of any tiebreaker.
Blue Jays player to watch: Toronto acquired Shane Bieber at the deadline even though he was still completing his minor league rehab from Tommy John surgery. He has allowed three runs in two starts for the Blue Jays, striking out 15 with no walks in 11⅓ innings. It’s just two starts, but he looks like he did when he was the Cleveland ace, plus he has allowed the Jays to go to a six-man rotation. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as the Game 1 starter in the postseason.
Yankees player to watch: Aaron Judge is still probably the MVP favorite, but after missing 10 days with a flexor strain in his right elbow, he hasn’t been quite the same, hitting .241/.417/.506 with six home runs and 12 RBIs in 24 games in August. Though those are still good numbers, it seems fair to call it a slight slump by Judge’s recent historic standards — and it’s not the same level of production as before his injury. He also still hasn’t played the field, which limits the red-hot Giancarlo Stanton to pinch-hitting duties when the Yankees are on the road (manager Aaron Boone has been willing to play Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where there’s less ground to cover).
Red Sox player to watch: Sixty-nine games into his career, 21-year-old rookie Roman Anthony has made it clear: He’s going to be a big star. Sure, he can cut his strikeout rate a bit, but he already has A-plus plate discipline and has the second-highest hard-hit percentage in the majors behind only Kyle Schwarber. And Anthony is also quickly learning to lift the ball, slugging six home runs in August after hitting one each in June and July.
3. National League race for No. 2 seed
Standings: Milwaukee Brewers hold No. 1 seed with 5.5-game cushion; Philadelphia Phillies up 1 game on Dodgers, 3 games on Padres
What’s at stake: The Phillies hold a comfortable lead over the Mets in the NL East, so they have about a 90% chance of winning the division, but Philadelphia is neck and neck with the pair of NL West rivals for the second-best record in the NL. Home-field advantage isn’t a must to win a World Series — we’ve seen wild-card teams take it all, such as the Rangers in 2023 when they were the fifth seed in the AL — but the Phillies have an extreme home/road split this season, going 45-23 in Philadelphia and 34-35 elsewhere. They’re hitting .275 with an .808 OPS at home, .239 with a .693 OPS on the road.
Series to watch: Phillies at Dodgers (Sept. 15-17). The Phillies finish with a six-game homestand against the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins, which looks like a favorable way to end the season.
Phillies player to watch: Kyle Schwarber, of course, and Cristopher Sanchez as he takes over the role of staff ace from the injured Zack Wheeler. But the bullpen has been the issue the past two postseasons for the Phillies, which puts Jhoan Duran on the spot as well. Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline to take over as closer, Duran has mostly done the job, but he blew one save against the Nationals, picking up the loss, and then lost another game against the Mets when he allowed four straight hits without getting an out.
4. American League race for top two seeds
Standings: Detroit Tigers hold No. 1 seed and are up 0.5 games on Blue Jays, 3.5 games on Yankees, 4 games on Red Sox and 4.5 games on Astros
What’s at stake: Bragging rights? Momentum heading into the postseason? Home-field advantage? Sure, all those things are nice, and the Tigers have a notable home/road split (44-25 versus 36-33), so securing that top seed, which they’ve held much of the way in the AL, would be the final touch on an excellent regular season. Still, if you’re manager A.J. Hinch, you’re not going to burn out your rotation in September just to get that top seed. If the Astros climb closer to the Tigers and Blue Jays, however, it will get more interesting as teams want to avoid that wild-card series if possible.
Series to watch: Tigers at Yankees (Sept. 9-11); Tigers at Red Sox (Sept. 26-28); Yankees at Astros (Tuesday-Thursday); Astros at Blue Jays (Sept. 9-11)
Tigers player to watch: The Tigers have been searching for a No. 2 starter behind Tarik Skubal all year. Jack Flaherty has been inconsistent all season and had three starts in August where he allowed five or more runs. Casey Mize has a 7.20 ERA over his past eight starts. Chris Paddack? No. Maybe it’s 41-year-old vet Charlie Morton, who has a 4.61 ERA in his five starts with Detroit, as he has mixed in three excellent outings with two bad ones (although he fanned 10 in one of the bad ones). No matter what, there are going to be a lot of bullpen games for the Tigers in the playoffs when Skubal isn’t pitching, especially since the pen was much better in August after struggling in June and July (and adding some depth at the deadline).
5. American League West
Standings: Houston Astros up 2 games on Seattle Mariners
What’s at stake: The Mariners haven’t won a division title since … hold on here, scrolling through the years on Baseball-Reference.com … that’s right, the 116-win season in 2001. The Mariners made some weird pact with the baseball gods that season, which for some reason didn’t include them making the World Series after their historic regular season but did include them not making the postseason again until 2022. That’s right: They remain the only franchise never to appear in the Fall Classic. Winning the division would increase their odds just a bit and allow them to set their rotation for the ALDS.
Series to watch: Mariners at Astros (Sept. 19-21). The season series is tied 5-5, so the winner of this series gets that crucial tiebreaker edge. Of note: The Mariners have lost five consecutive road series and are 1-6-1 (they split a four-game series) in their past eight. The Astros have managed to keep their grip on first place despite going 12-13 in July and 13-15 in August. They’ve won every full-season AL West title going back to 2017.
Astros player to watch: Yordan Alvarez returned last week after being out since early May with a hand injury. He homered in his second game back and didn’t strike out in his first five games. The Astros have even started him twice in left field, allowing them to give Jose Altuve a DH day. Bottom line: If Alvarez is producing, a below-average offense suddenly looks at least like an average — or better-than-average — offense. With Alvarez, Altuve and Carlos Correa, it’s 2019 or 2021 all over again, two seasons that ended with the Astros playing in the World Series.
Mariners player to watch: How much does Cal Raleigh have left in the tank? He’s sitting on 50 home runs but also hit .194 in July and .173 in August. He’s still doing damage with the long ball and has had 17 home runs and 36 RBIs over the two months, but he’s not carrying the offense as he did in the first half.
6. American League Wild Card
Standings: Mariners hold third wild-card spot and are up 2.5 games on Kansas City Royals, 3 games on Texas Rangers and 4 games on Cleveland Guardians
What’s at stake: By no means are the Mariners out of the AL West race against Houston, but they also haven’t played well enough to pull away in the wild-card fight, even after everyone declared them a sure-thing playoff team following the acquisitions of Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the deadline. But given Seattle’s recent history of just missing the playoffs — two wins short in 2021, one short in 2023 and 2024 — Mariners fans are understandably nervous about blowing it, especially with the Royals and the Rangers refusing to go away.
Series to watch: Mariners at Royals (Sept. 16-18); Royals at Guardians (Sept. 8-10); Rangers at Guardians (Sept. 26-28). The Royals finished one game ahead of the Mariners for a wild-card spot last season, so this looks like the key series. The Mariners have one three-game series in Houston starting Sept. 19. If they can survive this current road trip — they just went 1-2 against Cleveland and now head to Tampa and Atlanta — that series looms large as well.
Royals player to watch: Is it too late to toss Bobby Witt Jr. into the Judge/Raleigh MVP debate? He’s making a late run with his outstanding all-around game and just had his best month of the season. With Vinnie Pasquantino mashing home runs and some trade acquisitions chipping in, Kansas City is peaking at the right time. The Royals have played well for two months now and have a pretty soft schedule for the final month.
Rangers player to watch: The Rangers looked out of it, and they’re going to be without Nathan Eovaldi for the rest of the season — and likely Marcus Semien as well — and Corey Seager for some period of time following an appendectomy. But they just won three series in a row. Without Eovaldi, Jack Leiter has to continue to pitch well: He has a 2.88 ERA over his past 11 starts and just tossed back-to-back excellent games.
Guardians player to watch: Cleveland is barely hanging in there, taking two of three against the Mariners as Kyle Manzardo hit big home runs in wins Friday and Saturday. He’s hitting .273/.362/.545 since July 12, giving Cleveland a much-needed power source other than Jose Ramirez.
7. National League East and NL Wild Card
Standings: Phillies up 6 games on Mets in division; Mets up 4 games on Cincinnati Reds in wild card
What’s at stake: The Mets temporarily made the division race interesting again after sweeping Philadelphia early last week but then lost three of four at home to the Marlins. That’s unacceptable if you want to win the division. The Reds continue to falter, so the Mets’ wild-card spot looks reasonably safe, though they are just .500 since May 1.
Series to watch: Mets at Phillies (Sept. 8-11); Mets at Reds (Friday-Sunday). With next week’s four-game series, the NL East remains in play even though it would take an epic New York comeback combined with a Phillies collapse for the Mets to win the division. They’ve already clinched the season series over the Phillies with a 7-2 advantage. Meanwhile, the Reds have a chance to put pressure on the Mets with a three-game series in Cincinnati before New York’s trip to Philadelphia.
Mets player to watch: Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong. The Mets’ rotation has scuffled for a while, so suddenly the season rests heavily on their two prized rookie starters. McLean won his first three starts, allowing just two runs in 20⅓ innings. Tong, who led minor league starters in ERA and strikeouts, beat the Marlins in his debut Friday, striking out six in five innings with no walks while showcasing the changeup that allowed him to dominate the minors.
Reds player to watch: What’s happening with Elly De La Cruz‘s power? He hasn’t homered since July 31 and has just one in his past 58 games.
8. National League Central
Standings: Brewers up 6.5 games on Chicago Cubs
What’s at stake: This is another David vs. Goliath matchup. Milwaukee, of course, is Goliath. The Cubs won the NL Central in the COVID-shortened season of 2020 but haven’t taken a full-season division title since 2017. Given the Brewers’ lead with no signs of faltering, the odds are slim that Chicago can chase them down.
Series to watch: The two teams are done for their season series, and the Cubs took it 7-6, so at least they own the tiebreaker.
Brewers player to watch: Closer Trevor Megill landed on the IL a few days ago with a flexor strain in his elbow after blowing three saves since mid-August, so Abner Uribe takes over. If the Cubs have a chance to catch the Brewers, it might be because the Milwaukee pen, which has been worked hard, burns out in September, especially with the Brewers in the midst of playing 19 games in 18 days.
Cubs player to watch: Kyle Tucker slumped as he played through a hairline fracture in his right hand for two months. He finally broke out with three home runs in two games and has hit over .400 his past nine games. The Cubs’ offense was horrid in August — Pete Crow-Armstrong also struggled — and they’ll need Tucker and the rest of the lineup to rebound in September.
9. American League Central
Standings: Tigers up 9.5 games on Royals
What’s at stake: This one is all but over — though, it’s not impossible for the Royals. The Mets blew a seven-game lead in 2007 with 17 games to play. The 1995 Angels entered September with a 7.5-game lead and lost the division in a tiebreaker game. The 2009 Tigers were up seven games on Sept. 6 and blew it. The 2011 Braves had an 8.5-game lead in the wild-card race at the start of September and missed the playoffs. And during that same season, the Red Sox were leading the Yankees in the AL East and nine games up on the Rays — who would catch them on the final day of the season to win the wild card. So … you never know.
Series to watch: The Tigers and Royals are done playing each other, with Detroit winning the season series 9-4.
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