RYAN PRESSLY REMEMBERS how it felt to sit in the stands and watch the Texas Rangers play during the 2010 ALCS. He’s sitting inside Minute Maid Park’s news conference room, the shadow from the bill of his Houston Astros hat covers his eyes.
Pressly grew up in the Dallas area, a fan of the Rangers and especially Michael Young, and now he’s a relief pitcher for the Astros.
“I never thought I would be in this situation,” Pressly says. “I’m just thankful to be here.”
Even though he’s a popular player this series, he’s a man of few words. He doesn’t even have a social media account, saying he believes “in staying quiet and doing his job.”
“He likes to keep to himself,” Kat Pressly says of her husband. “He likes to be out on the ranch, be out in nature, go hunting. He doesn’t like a lot of attention or media around him.”
Since Ryan is focused on helping the Astros right the series, Kat’s the one in charge of getting tickets for his family when the games move to Arlington. She guesses they’ve gotten about 20 tickets, but since her phone keeps ringing — some of them calls from Ryan’s best friends — it’ll probably be much more than that by Wednesday night’s Game 3. Ryan’s told them all that since they’ll be sitting in the Astros’ family section, they can’t wear anything with the Rangers on it.
Asked if he’s excited about playing his childhood team, Ryan says he doesn’t see this series as anything different.
“It’s the same game. It just happens to be in my hometown,” he says.
JOSE RUIZ IS down on one knee looking up at the mural on the third base line outside of Minute Maid Park and taking pictures with his phone.
“You from Houston?” I ask.
“Hell yeah,” he says as he rises to his feet and straightens his orange-colored dress shirt with the Astros’ logo all over it. It’s hours before the start of the all-Texas ALCS.
“I got here in 1980,” Ruiz, 59, says. He’s originally from San Benito, about a five-hour drive from Houston. “Coming from a little town that didn’t have any pro teams, when I moved here, I said, ‘Well, at least I’m going to have some teams now.'”
When he moved here — and among the things he inherited was a dislike of Dallas — the Astros were bad. They did win the AL West in 1980, but never registered as annual contenders. He and his wife would pay $5 to watch them play inside the Astrodome and sit anywhere because there was hardly anyone there.
“I thought they were going to suck for the rest of my life, and I was OK with that,” Ruiz says. He made peace with it because that’s part of fandom. “There’s baseball fans who live and die and their team never wins a championship.”
Ruiz saw decades of bad baseball and figured that would be his experience too.
“Then they started getting good, and it was awesome,” Ruiz says.
He says that gave him bragging rights among his friends from Dallas. “They call me a cheater,” Ruiz says of his friends. “They won’t let it go.”
More than just his friends, it’s seemingly the entire league who believe the Astros are cheaters. Away from home, anywhere the Astros play, they get booed.
“It’s us against the world,” Ruiz says.
“I’VE ALWAYS BEEN less susceptible to mythology than most people,” Dr. Walter L. Buenger says. Before he became a history professor at the University of Texas, he grew up in Fort Stockton. If you consider it a big city, Odessa, of the famed “Friday Night Lights,” would be the closest one to Fort Stockton, about 90 minutes away.
“I have a different slant than many Texans,” Buenger says in a deep West Texas accent. His grandparents were German and his father grew up speaking German in Texas until he went to school. “I heard all these stories from my grandparents growing up about how the Germans were mistreated. How the Ku Klux Klan came after them in the 1920s.”
From a personal and intellectual perspective, he knows Texas is a complicated place. And perhaps no two cities are as complicated than where the Astros and Rangers play better encapsulate that tension.
“Going back to the 1890s, Houston and Dallas competed with each other,” Buenger says. The competition was in everything from the location of the National Reserve Bank, business deals and connections, and even who’d host the Texas Centennial.
Dallas beat Houston for a lot of those, including hosting the Texas Centennial. That event, he says, was a point of identity separation between Dallas and Houston. Before then, the non-Mexican parts of Texas viewed itself as more southern.
With the centennial came the State Fair of Texas. With that came Big Tex, the big cowboy at the center of the fair. Buenger calls Big Tex a proper symbol for Dallas in the 1930s. “Dallas is more diverse now,” he says. “But Houston has always been much more diverse in its demography.”
Dallas embraced the cowboy as its symbol of identity. For Houston it was oil. That difference, plus the historic competition, and two of the country’s largest cities being a four-hour drive apart, helped create the rivalry.
“It’s a myth,” Buenger says of Texas identity.
Because they’re malleable, those myths help erase the harsh past. That cotton and slavery helped create Houston, Dallas and the rest of the state. That the Rangers are named after a law enforcement agency that lynched Mexicans. That the first official baseball team is from Houston and the first official game got played in April 1868 on the same San Jacinto battleground where Texas won its independence from Mexico. That day, the Houston Stonewalls beat the Galveston Robert E. Lees 35-2.
“What happens in Texas is memory replaces reality,” Buenger says. “And memory is both remembering some things and forgetting others.”
“VERLANDER ISN’T DOING too good,” Jason Flores says of Houston pitcher Justin Verlander. It’s the sixth inning, the one after Leody Taveras hit a solo home run to give the Rangers an early series lead.
“But they’re getting it together,” Joel Flores says of the Astros. “They’re warming up.”
Jason and Joel are twin brothers. They’re watching the game on Joel’s cellphone as they stand near the front entrance of the Magnolia Hotel, a few blocks from Minute Maid Park, where they work as valets.
On October nights like these, when the Astros are at home, they get busy, mostly before and after the game when fans are coming and going.
“The garage gets packed,” Jason says. “We get guests who specifically come and check into the hotel for the game. They stay here a couple of days, as a long as the Astros as here.”
Jason and Joel are lifelong Astro fans, who love all things Houston and dislike Dallas, especially the Cowboys.
Because of that, they could care less if the Astros get booed away from home. As Jason explains, “I’m from Houston. That’s who I am, in and out, that’s my team.”
As we stand there, watching a few pitches on Joel’s phone of Game 1, I ask them to imagine the unthinkable.
“Let’s say the Rangers advance, do you cheer for them in the World Series since they’re a Texas team?”
“Nah,” Jason and Joel say, almost in unison.
“F— the Rangers,” Joel says. “If they win, I’m done. It’s on to the Texans.”
“I mean, of course I want Texas up there,” Jason adds. “But here, it’s Houston only.”
FOR ALMOST AS long as he can remember, Mark Espinoza’s been a fan of the Rangers. One of his first heartbreaking sports moments happened when he was 11 years old, watching the 2011 Rangers get within a strike of winning the World Series. Young Mark then watched that slip away over the outstretched glove of Nelson Cruz in right field.
“You just got to soak it in and accept it,” Espinoza says of that night.
There’s a contrast in him retelling that painful memory as he smiles because, a dozen years later, this is the closest the Rangers have gotten to winning it all since then. As he talks, he stands in front of a mural celebrating the Astros’ World Series titles. Across the street, on Texas Avenue, there are police on horseback next to a church with a sign on its fence that says, “Make it a spiritual double header! Catch mass and a game!”
Houston fans walk quietly past that sign, past the police and past Espinoza. As quiet now as they were loud in the 8th inning when Yordan Alvarez hit his second home run of the game and brought the Astros to within a run of the Rangers.
“I’ve never heard it that loud,” Espinoza says of the Houston crowd. “It’s different being in this stadium.”
He says he was cautiously optimistic before the series began because the Astros often beat the Rangers. But after the Game 2 win by the Rangers, that’s changed.
“We’re going for the sweep,” Espinoza says loud enough an Astros fan walking by slows as if he wants to say something but doesn’t.
“This is the Texas Rangers’ year.”
He hasn’t stopped smiling since the final out. He says it with the confidence of a fan who cheers for a team some didn’t expect to get this far. Now, the Rangers return home with a chance to clinch the series.
But beyond the matchups and narratives, it’s also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.
That’s where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in — my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference’s point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.
To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year’s playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “established level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player’s established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR.
The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance — the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward — in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year’s postseason.
One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.
With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:
Five series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and two more will begin Monday. Meanwhile, the two matchups in the Central Division are on to Game 2.
Here’s the four-pack of games on the calendar:
What are the key storylines heading into Monday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?
You might’ve heard about the 2010 playoff matchup between these two teams a time or so in the past week.
In that postseason, the overwhelming favorite (and No. 1 seed) Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, were upset by the No. 8 seed Canadiens, due in large part to an epic performance in goal from Jaroslav Halak. Halak isn’t walking out of the tunnel for the Habs this time around (we assume); instead it’ll be Becancour, Quebec, native Sam Montembeault, who allowed four goals on 35 shots in his one start against the Caps this season.
Washington’s goaltender for Game 1 has yet to be revealed, as Logan Thompson was injured back on April 2. But there’s no question that there is a disparity between the offensive output of the two clubs, as the Caps finished second in the NHL in goals per game (3.49), while the Canadiens finished 17th (2.96). Can Montreal keep up in this series?
The Blues hung with the Jets for much of Game 1 and even looked like the stronger team at certain times, so pulling off the series upset remains on the table. But getting a win on the unfriendly ice at the Canada Life Centre would be of some benefit in shifting momentum before the series moves to St. Louis for Game 3. The Blues proved that Connor Hellebuyck is not invincible in Game 1, and they were led by stars Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, who both got on the board.
The Jets have a mixed history after winning Game 1 of a playoff series, having gone 3-3 as a franchise (including the Atlanta Thrashers days) on such occasions. Like the Blues, the Jets were led by their stars, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but the game-tying goal came from Alex Iafallo, who has played up and down the lineup this season.
The Stars might like a redo on Game 1 after the visiting Avalanche essentially controlled the festivities for much of the contest. Stars forward Jason Robertson missed Game 1 because of an injury sustained in the final game of the regular season, and his return sooner than later would be excellent for Dallas; he scored three goals in three games against Colorado in the regular season. Also of note, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time.
Slowing down the Avs’ stars will be critical in Game 2, which is a sound — if perhaps unrealistic — strategy. With his two goals in Game 1, Nathan MacKinnon became the third player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to score 50 playoff goals, joining Joe Sakic (84) and Peter Forsberg (58). In reaching 60 assists in his 73rd playoff game, Cale Makar became the third-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach that milestone, behind Bobby Orr (69 GP) and Al MacInnis (71 GP).
This is the fourth straight postseason in which the Oilers and Kings have met in Round 1, and Edmonton has won the previous three series. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings?
L.A. went 3-1-0 against Edmonton this season, including shutouts on April 5 and 14. Quinton Byfield was particularly strong in those games, with three goals and an assist. Overall, the Kings were led in scoring this season by Adrian Kempe, with 35 goals and 38 assists. Warren Foegele — who played 22 playoff games for the Oilers in 2024 — had a career-high 24 goals this season.
The Oilers enter the 2025 postseason with 41 playoff series wins, which is the second most among non-Original Six teams (behind the Flyers, with 44). They have been eliminated by the team that won the Stanley Cup in each of the past three postseasons (Panthers 2024, Golden Knights 2023, Avalanche 2022). Edmonton continues to be led by Leon Draisaitl — who won his first Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer this season — and Connor McDavid, who won the goal-scoring title in 2022-23 and the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs last year, even though the Oilers didn’t win the Cup.
Arda’s Three Stars of Sunday
For the last several seasons, much of the postseason narrative for the Leafs has been the lack of production from the Core Four. So this was a dream Game 1 against Ottawa for Marner (one goal, two assists), Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Matthews (two assists) in Toronto’s 6-2 win over Ottawa.
Stankoven’s two goals in the second period put the game out of reach, with the Canes winning 4-1 in Game 1. Stankoven is the second player in Hurricanes/Whalers history to score twice in his first playoff game with the club (the other was Andrei Svechnikov in Game 1 of the first round in 2019)
Howden had two third-period goals in the Golden Knights’ victory over the Wild in Game 1, including a buzzer-beating empty-netter to make the final score 4-2.
Sunday’s results
Hurricanes 4, Devils 1 Carolina leads 1-0
The Hurricanes came out inspired thanks in part to the raucous home crowd and took a quick lead off the stick of Jalen Chatfield at 2:24 of the first period. Logan Stankoven — who came over in the Mikko Rantanen trade — scored a pair in the second period, and the Canes never looked back. On the Devils’ side, injuries forced Brenden Dillon and Cody Glass out of the game, while Luke Hughes left in the third period but was able to return. Full recap.
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Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead
Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.
William Nylander zips home a goal to pad the Maple Leafs’ lead
William Nylander zips the puck past the goalie to give the Maple Leafs a 4-1 lead.
Golden Knights 4, Wild 2 Vegas leads 1-0
In Sunday’s nightcap, the two teams played an evenly matched first two periods, as Vegas carried a 2-1 lead into the third. Then, Brett Howden worked his magic, scoring a goal to pad the Knights’ lead 2:28 into that frame, and putting the game to bed with an empty-netter that beat the buzzer. The Wild were led by Matt Boldy, who had two goals, both assisted by Kirill Kaprizov. Full recap.
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Brett Howden buries Wild in Game 1 with buzzer-beating goal
Brett Howden sends the Minnesota Wild packing in Game 1 with an empty-net goal for the Golden Knights in the final second.
LAS VEGAS — NHL linesman Bryan Pancich left Sunday night’s Minnesota–Vegas playoff game 3:37 into the second period after a collision with Golden Knights forward Brett Howden.
Backup official Frederick L’Ecuyer took Pancich’s place in the opening game of the first-round Western Conference series.
Howden was trying to bat down a puck in the offensive zone when he appeared to make contact with Pancich’s head with both by the boards. Howden briefly kneeled down to check on the official before joining his team as the Wild went on an offensive rush.