Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

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1 year ago

October 20, 2023

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It’s common knowledge that Norway is the land of electric cars and that the country keeps breaking EV sales records with virtually no new fossil vehicle sales. But what’s really important is the effect those EVs are having on oil sales, which are in steep decline in the country as a result – and the same thing could happen elsewhere.

Norwegian statistics agency SSB released its latest numbers on motor fuel sales today, showing a whopping 9% decline in motor fuel sales year-over-year for the month of September.

This is a result of Norway’s world-leading EV sales, with over 90% of new vehicles in the country having some sort of plug and vanishingly few having no electrification at all. The country has exceeded its own high expectations, virtually ending fossil vehicle sales years ahead of schedule.

However, there are still fossil vehicles on the road from previous years that are continuing to pollute and use fossil fuels throughout their lifecycle. But as they age and are replaced almost solely with EVs, the vehicle fleet cycles out from fossil to electric. If it takes 10-15 years for the vehicle fleet to cycle out, then that means Norway would remove ~6-10% of fossil cars from the road every year, replace them with electric cars, and thus reduce motor fuel usage by a similar amount every year.

But this trend is nothing particularly new. While this big 9% drop is just a one-month snapshot, petrol/gasoline sales have been in decline for about two decades in the country, as diesel started to replace petrol in the mid-2000s. But diesel has also been in decline for the better part of a decade, as electricity has replaced it as a motor fuel.

Stats from Robbie Andrew’s excellent Norway EV stats tracker at robbieandrew.github.io/EV/

To compare against other rapid declines, US coal usage has gone from a peak of 1,045 million tons in 2007 to 469 million tons in 2022, a decline of about 5% per year (and going from ~50% of the US electricity mix to ~20% now, and dropping). Many observers acknowledged, even near the beginning of this trend, that coal was a dead industry. Any subsequent attempts to expand it have been unserious political stunts that were doomed to fail from the start – everyone (with a brain) knows the industry is dead.

But in that context, Norway’s decline in motor fuel sales seems to be happening almost twice as fast on a percentage basis as the United States’ decline in coal use, at least according to today’s data point. And the long-term trend may accelerate as the country now has virtually no gas vehicle sales.

This is important because when we talk about electrifying the auto industry, the point is not just to get people into better cars with neat new technology. The point is to reduce oil consumption, such that carbon that belongs underground stays there – permanently.

This is vitally important because if we burned even a fraction of all the oil that is already discovered and owned by oil companies, the carbon released would cause catastrophic climate change. This was covered in Bill McKibben’s excellent 2012 article “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math.”

The only way we can avoid this fate is through one of the more wonderful phrases in the English language: “stranded assets.” In this context, the phrase refers to oil reserves owned by oil companies which get written off of those companies’ books because they are uneconomical to extract and sell.

In short, oil companies need to lose money, and lots of them need to go bankrupt.

And while Norway is just one relatively small country, news like this shows how that could happen as EV sales (and better yet, even cleaner methods of transportation like e-bikes and public transit) grow rapidly worldwide.

Oil demand -> oil prices -> oil supply

There is an interplay between oil demand, oil prices, and oil supply that could lead to a death spiral for the oil industry.

Lately, oil prices have been quite high around the world, nearing the historic highs of the 2010s and late 70s. This spike has largely been driven by pandemic-related supply (and demand) disruptions, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and, as always, the decisions of Saudi Arabia (in this case, their decision to cut supply to buoy oil prices).

But looking back to the last peak, we can see another interesting thing: a giant drop in oil prices in the mid-2010s, which was driven by a “supply glut.” This supply glut was at least partially related to increased usage of hybrid and electric cars, which led to a relatively small decrease in oil demand. However, that small decrease meant that more oil was being pumped than used, which led prices to drop by about two-thirds in a matter of months.

The effect of oil prices on consumer demand is that as oil prices go up, usage (often) goes down, and interest in electric cars goes up. This stands to reason, as people start thinking about more efficient vehicles when the cost of fueling their vehicle becomes too much.

But the effect on supply is less popularly examined. In this case, low oil prices can actually be environmentally advantageous because it means that oil companies are less incentivized to explore new methods of extraction and that more expensive methods (such as tar sands extraction, which is also much more environmentally costly) become uneconomical.

If it costs more to extract the oil than the oil is worth, then the project won’t get started. And if the project doesn’t get started, then the oil stays in the ground to begin with, right where it belongs.

So, in a way, low oil prices can actually be better for the environment than high oil prices. This means fewer projects get started, and more projects and companies go bankrupt due to high costs and low profits.

And this is the spiral that we want to see. As the primary driver of oil demand (vehicles, specifically consumer vehicles) disappears, oil prices can drop because of this supply-demand imbalance. Then, there will be less reason for companies to extract oil in the first place, leading to the stranded assets we spoke of before.

Some regions with low cost of extraction might even prefer it this way and work to ensure this happens. The Middle East can extract oil for cheaper than anywhere else, so it could be to their benefit to put high-cost extraction methods out of business. Norway itself is an oil country (primarily for export, at this point) and has middling oil-extraction costs, but it may benefit in the short term from a shakeout of higher-cost countries. But ideally, Norway’s extraction would soon become uneconomical – and hopefully, so will Saudi Arabia’s.

The one danger of this path is that if oil demand does drop low enough, low oil prices could jeopardize consumer decision-making to move to cleaner options. Oil is subsidized to the tune of trillions of dollars worldwide per year based on unpriced external costs that all of us are paying on the back end – usually in the form of higher hospital bills or other environmental costs.

This could be solved by finally properly pricing oil globally, as Norway already rightly does. Norway’s realistic pricing for carbon pollution has helped to ensure that the true price of oil is reflected in consumer pricing, making it more apparent to consumers that fossil vehicles are not an economical option for society or their pocketbooks.

In contrast, the artificially low gasoline costs in the US (yes, US gasoline prices are still artificially low, even at today’s high prices) work to buoy consumer oil demand. Removing the ~$650 billion in implicit subsidies received by the fossil fuel industry in the US alone would help ensure that fair market conditions could prevail, and consumers would have a clear choice about what the better and cleaner option is.

And if we finally let the market work freely, after more than a century of both direct and implicit oil subsidies that have coddled this lying, deadly industry, we could finally see it spiral into the oblivion it deserves.

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Jim Cramer is encouraged by updates on 3 stocks that indicate further upside ahead

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2 hours ago

November 5, 2024

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Jim Cramer is encouraged by updates on 3 stocks that indicate further upside ahead

Environment

Kia unveils two off-road concept EVs at SEMA: The EV9 ‘ADVNTR’ and a PV5 ‘WKNDR’ van

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2 hours ago

November 5, 2024

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Kia unveils two off-road concept EVs at SEMA: The EV9 'ADVNTR' and a PV5 'WKNDR' van

Days after teasing a major reveal at the 2024 Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA) show, Kia has unveiled two unique and custom-built EV concepts designed for adventure off-road. During the unveiling, we got a look at a new spin on the ever-popular EV9 SUV called the “ADVNTR” and a rugged take on one of Kia’s new purpose-built vehicles (PBVs), the PV5, called “WKNDR.”

On October 30, Kia America posted a clandestine press release about an upcoming reveal at the annual SEMA show in Los Angeles. The first release featured a shadowy image of what appeared to be some off-road vehicle, with its recognizable Kia front fascia shining at the camera lens. The text read, “All roads lead to SEMA.”

We speculated that SEMA might be the event where Kia finally unveils the first of its two promised BEV pickup trucks. Since the headlamps closely resembled those of an EV9, we thought it could be the mule pickup we reported being tested in the US earlier this year. We were close.

Later that same day, Kia followed up with a second press release with the same title and quote but an image of a different off-road EV shining through the darkness, one that was much less recognizable.

Both releases had fine print stating that the vehicle in each image was a concept, so we curbed our expectations heading into this week’s 2024 SEMA show. This morning, Kia officially unveiled these two new off-road concept EVs, and they’re pretty cool looking. Have a gander at the EV9 ADVNTR and the PV5 WKNDR.

Kia off-road — The EV9 ADVNTR Concept EV / Source: Kia America

Kia unveils off-road concepts of its EV9 and PV5 EVs

According to the Korean automaker, designers from Kia Design Center America (KDCA) in Irvine, CA, imagined both off-road concepts. SEMA is usually a stage for OEMs to showcase concepts and accessories that are more rugged or heavy-duty.

Hence, the Kia team brought its A-game to Vegas with two new concept EVs that “intrinsically blend form and function into machines designed for responsible engagement with nature.”

The first is the EV9 ADVNTR, based on the three-row SUV that contributed to record sales for Kia in the US in October. Today, Kia shared that its off-road concept version of the EV9 is equipped with new custom front and rear facias, reinforced rocker panels, and rugged tires for more maneuverability in the elements.

Additionally, the EV9 ADVNTR can lift 3 inches higher than the standard 2025 SUV model and features a new roof rack that can haul luggage and hiking gear or support a roof-mounted tent.

In addition to the EV9 ADVNTR, Kia unveiled an off-road concept version of its new PV5 called the WKNDR. The PV5 is a middle-of-the-pack BEV in Kia’s latest ‘Purpose Beyond Vehicle’ lineup, which debuted at CES 2024.

While the standard PV5 was designed for commercial operations and last-mile deliveries, the Kia design team decided to take it off-road with the new WKNDR concept. This BEV van has been lifted and rigged with some hefty off-road tires, but like its predecessor, the interior of the PV5 WKNDR is what truly stands out.

Kia describes the off-road concept van as a “Swiss Army Knife on wheels,” offering a modular cabin that can be customized to an owner’s wants and needs. The conceptual design features a first-of-its-kind storage solution called the “Gear Head” feature that delivers off-board, sheltered storage space for equipment when the vehicle is stationary, maximizing interior space while providing owners with easy access to all their belongings.

Thanks to its modularity, Kia shared that the off-road van’s “Gear Head” space can also be converted into a mobile pantry for those foodies who want to assemble an array of cuisine while parked out in nature, or anywhere for that matter.

Kia also shared that its team designed the PV5 WKNDR to be self-sufficient as an off-road BEV. It features solar panels and hydro turbine wheels that can recharge the vehicle’s batteries and power other components, like an onboard compressor.

Since these remain mere concepts, we don’t have any performance specs for the Kia EV9 ADVNTR or PV5 WKNDR, nor can we confirm that either model will reach bonafide production for sale. However, Kia is thinking beyond its current lineup and is at least flirting with the idea of delivering some new models that would compete against the likes of Ford, Rivian, and recent reveals from VW Group’s Scout Motors.

At the very least, we may see some of these features and design elements in Kia’s upcoming BEV pickups. For now, however, these off-road EV concepts are an exciting exercise in design that once again shows how innovative and creative Hyundai Motor Group is across virtually all BEV segments.

We hope to see more concrete unveilings from the Korean automaker soon.

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These EVs are a steal with lease prices under $300 a month this November

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2 hours ago

November 5, 2024

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These EVs are a steal with lease prices under 0 a month this November

With big discounts and lower-priced models hitting the market, electric vehicles are getting more and more affordable. Here are the EVs you can drive off in this November with lease prices under $300 a month.

EVs for lease for under $300 a month November 2024

New models like the Honda Prologue and Chevy Blazer, Equinox, and Silverado EVs are rolling out nationwide, giving buyers more options than ever.

According to Cox Automotive, over 100,000 EVs were sold in the US in September, the sixth straight month topping the 100K mark. Electric vehicles accounted for 9% of the US auto market, its highest to date.

The average transaction price (ATP) for new EVs was $56,328, but drastically higher incentives bring prices on par with or even under many comparable gas cars.

For example, the Honda Prologue electric SUV is available to lease for as low as $295 per month, including the down payment. That’s cheaper than a Honda Civic at $376 per month.

The Honda Prologue is one of the best EVs to lease this November. Here are the other models worth considering this month.

	Lease From	Term (months)	Due at Signing	Effective rate per month (including upfront fees)
2024 Nissan LEAF	$109	36	$2,529	$179
2024 Kia Niro EV	$169	24	$3,999	$336
2024 Kia EV6	$179	24	$3,999	$346
2024 VinFast VF 8	$199	36	$894	$244
2024 Hyundai IONIQ 5	$159	24	$3,999	$326
2024 Honda Prologue	$259	36	$1,299	$295

EVs for lease under $300 per month in November 2024

According to online auto research firm CarsDirect, the Nissan LEAF retained the title of the cheapest EV you can lease in November listed at just $109 per month in Colorado.

With $2,529 due at signing, the effective monthly rate is just $179. However, the deal only includes state incentives, not offered elsewhere.

Kia’s Niro EV and EV6 are two of the best EV lease options this month, with monthly rates of $169 and $179.

After a recent price cut, the EV6 is offered at its lowest monthly rate since hitting the market. That’s for the Light Long-Range model with up to 310 miles of range.

The Hyundai IONIQ 5 remains a top lease option in November, with the updated 2025 model set for deliveries later this year. With lease prices starting at just $159 per month, Hyundai is offering its best-selling electric SUV at closeout prices.