
‘Phenomenal’: LSU’s Jayden Daniels plays the game with reckless abandon
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Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff WriterNov 1, 2023, 06:40 AM ET
Close- Covers the SEC.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of Auburn University.
BATON ROUGE, La. — In a scene that’s become all too familiar this season, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels deftly escaped the pocket only to take off and run with reckless abandon, absorbing the type of body blows that make coaches and fans alike wince.
No, this wasn’t that cringeworthy hit against Florida State or that breathtaking hit against Ole Miss or that freight train of a hit against Mississippi State. This was the shot Daniels took on the road at Missouri, the one that finally knocked him out of the game. After corralling an errant snap, splitting two defenders and cutting upfield, he crossed the goal line for an apparent touchdown. But just as he relaxed and dropped his shoulders into a defenseless posture, linebacker Chuck Hicks came out of nowhere and drilled him squarely in the back and tackled him to the ground.
As tight end Mason Taylor pleaded with officials for a personal foul, Daniels popped up quickly and tried to play it off. But he felt a sharp pain in his ribs growing more acute by the second. Unsteady on his feet, he tapped his helmet to signal he needed a substitution. He fell to a knee about 10 yards short of the sideline, where a pair of trainers huddled around him.
“It’s a TV timeout,” the trainers advised him. “You’ve got time.”
“Nah,” Daniels said. “I’ve got to get off this field.”
If he was going to get looked at, it wasn’t going to be in full view of everyone in the opposing stadium. Best not to let them see him vulnerable.
As he was helped to the privacy of the medical tent, coach Brian Kelly checked on his star QB.
“You good?” Kelly asked. “Can you finish the game?”
“Give me a minute,” Daniels said. “I just need a minute.”
Inside the tent, while his ribs were being examined, Daniels noticed his left hand was swollen. That was new, he thought. “I think it got hit by a helmet,” he said, unsure of when the injury occurred. The trainers asked if he was OK, and he didn’t hesitate. “Yeah,” he told them, “I need to go back out there.”
Backup quarterback Garrett Nussmeier had finished out the series, which continued because of a false start penalty that negated Daniels’ touchdown and ended with a missed field goal. After Missouri went three-and-out, Daniels went back in the game. Four plays later, he threw a strike to Malik Nabers for a 35-yard reception. Every little movement stung, though he tried not to let it show. Throwing the football, he said, “hurt a lot.”
But on third-and-3, Daniels took one step backward, planted his back leg on the Missouri 40-yard line and took off. Bruised ribs and aching hand be damned, he knifed through the front seven, past a hapless linebacker, past a sprinting safety and ran untouched until he was tackled while falling into the end zone to give LSU its first lead of the game.
“I could feel the pain in the moment,” Daniels recalled, “but I had to help my team win.”
LSU did win as Daniels completed 15 of 21 passes for 259 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for 130 yards and a score. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz found Daniels on the field after the game, gave him a hug and tapped his helmet in a sign of respect. When he met with reporters later, Drinkwitz said Daniels is “as good as any quarterback I’ve ever gone against.”
Kelly handed Daniels the game ball in the locker room and called him a “warrior” a year after wondering if Daniels, at a slender 190 pounds, could handle the job.
The challenge ahead is twofold, beginning with a trip to Alabama on Saturday (7:45 p.m. ET, CBS). The outcome will likely determine LSU’s future as a playoff contender and Daniels’ status as a Heisman Trophy front-runner.
To reach those tandem goals, Daniels will have to keep posting show-stopping numbers and keep getting up after show-stopping hits.
“They’re the No. 1 offensive team in the country and it starts with the quarterback, Jayden Daniels,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said Monday. “I mean, this guy is a phenomenal player.”
KELLY INITIALLY HAD his doubts about Daniels, whether it was his durability or his decision-making. Kelly said they brought Daniels in from Arizona State and weren’t exactly sold that “he’s our guy.”
They weren’t sure he’d beat out Nussmeier for the starting job. When Daniels injured his foot shortly after arriving on campus, Kelly groaned, “Oh, he’s from the West Coast. He’s not very tough.”
Kelly smiled thinking back on that moment. He has never been so happy to be proved wrong.
Kelly said last year’s game between LSU and Alabama provided a sample of what Daniels was capable of.
Daniels remembers standing on the sideline inside Tiger Stadium and watching what seemed impossible as Alabama quarterback Bryce Young followed the five D’s of dodgeball: dodge, duck, dip, dive and dodge. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner at the time looked like Houdini as he escaped the LSU pass rush and found a wide-open Ja’Corey Brooks for the go-ahead score with less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter.
Then, Daniels said, Young turned toward the LSU sideline and smirked.
A year later, Daniels remembers it clear as day. The defining moment of the game and that season wasn’t the touchdown and 2-point conversion later in overtime, he said, it was the drive LSU put together in response to Young’s heroics: a methodical seven-play, 75-yard march in less than three minutes, featuring a 31-yard run by Daniels to extend the drive on third down and a 7-yard touchdown pass to retake the lead.
Daniels relished the chance to be a part of what he’d only dreamed of as a kid — Alabama-LSU, at night, in prime time. “Those are the big moments,” he said.
After the game, Daniels and Young spoke. The Southern California natives have known one another since they were in elementary school, competing in youth games and camps. “You know,” Daniels said of last spring’s No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, “he’s never beaten me.”
LSU’s 1-point victory over Alabama catapulted the Tigers to the SEC championship game. No one — especially not Kelly — is saying that Daniels was anything other than good during his first season at LSU. He threw for just shy of 3,000 yards, 17 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. And he ran for a team-high 885 yards. He threw the most catchable ball in the country (83% catchable pass rate).
But he rarely took shots downfield, ranking 103rd in rate of pass attempts 20-plus yards downfield (10.6%).
The lack of explosive plays was a drag on the offense.
During a practice before this season, Kelly said, he pulled Daniels aside.
“This drill,” he told his quarterback, “is set up for you to be aggressive and to make those tough throws. Don’t be afraid to put it into tight coverage. Don’t be afraid to make that throw that is being contested.”
Kelly wanted Daniels to trust his eyes, his arm and his receivers.
“For some reason, everything had to be wide open or it wasn’t open at all,” Kelly said.
Nabers admitted he got frustrated with Daniels’ careful nature as well. The team’s No. 1 receiver recalled another practice this summer when he couldn’t get Daniels to look his way.
“Bro,” Nabers told Daniels, “just throw it up.”
Daniels told Nabers he wasn’t open, and he wasn’t technically wrong. Nabers was garnering a lot of double coverage.
“I don’t care. Just throw it up,” Nabers told him. “They look like they’re beside me, but I’m getting past them.”
Nabers said they watched film together that evening and Nabers pointed out how he was, in fact, pulling away from the defensive backs as the play developed. Nabers said Daniels relented, “All right, I’m going to give you some chances.”
The defense still double-covered Nabers during the next day’s practice, but this time Daniels gave him a chance.
“And he was launching them and I was jumping over people and just making plays,” Nabers recalled, smiling. “I was like, ‘Bro, I told you.'”
Nabers sat in the corner of LSU’s indoor facility last week, looked out on the practice field and reminisced. Because Daniels joined the team so late last year — the day before spring practice — and he wasn’t named the starting quarterback until September, Nabers said they didn’t have the time they needed to get on the same page. But this offseason was different.
They spent so many early mornings out here, Nabers said, running through the entire route tree. Countless reps. Countless conversations. Daniels and his receivers learned about one another over the course of months — on the field and off it. And the result was a combination of chemistry and trust that’s paying off today.
But there was another piece that went into Daniels’ transformation this season. Rarely does a quarterback go from being timid to decisive.
Preparation, Daniels said, has been the key.
IT COULDN’T HAVE been later than 6 a.m., Kelly recalled, noting that the sun hadn’t risen by the time he pulled up to the football facility the morning after the Week 6 Missouri game. As he parked his matte black Tesla, Kelly looked around the mostly empty lot and noticed Daniels’ car.
Checking to make sure Daniels hadn’t left it there the night before, Kelly walked to the quarterback room, where he found Daniels in his own world, watching film.
Daniels not only skipped sleeping off his injuries, he beat almost the entire coaching staff to the office.
“OK,” Kelly said he thought, “this is a little different.”
Kelly said it’s the first time he has ever been surprised like that. And, he added, it’s a credit to the habits Daniels developed this season. It’s like clockwork. Daniels comes in early every morning, watches film on his own and then spends a few hours in the training room before most of his teammates have even started their day. From there, it’s on to practice and then back home.
“He is a pro,” Kelly said. “Everything he does, a pro would do it the same way.”
True to his routine, Daniels was back in the quarterback room on a Wednesday morning during the bye week. A graphic of a pointing Joe Burrow looming large over his right shoulder, Daniels sat down, shut the lights off and began scribbling notes as a recording of the Alabama-Tennessee game played on the projector. It took half the season to fill up his notebook, he said, so he switched to an iPad for more storage.
He put his pen down and gripped a football with both hands as he spoke to a reporter. The light from the projector illuminated the embossed words on the worn leather: “National Football League.”
Yes, Daniels said, he thought long and hard about turning pro after last season. He spent about a week and a half deliberating the pros and cons. Five years of college had seemed like more than enough. But he knew the quarterback class was going to be crowded. Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud would be the first two quarterbacks off the board — “and rightfully so,” he said. While he believed he was just as talented as them, Daniels acknowledged that not everyone felt the same way.
“It wasn’t my time yet,” he said. “It was best for me to come back as one of the few returning starters in the SEC. So it was like, ‘OK, I’m going to come back and not live with any regrets.'”
Kelly didn’t take the decision for granted.
“I thought we had to show him the plan,” he said. “I thought if we didn’t recruit him, if we didn’t show him why we felt it was important for him to be here, if we didn’t open up avenues for NIL, if we didn’t do those things, I think it could have made it easier for him to go.”
Kelly paused for a moment when asked whether Daniels is making more money now than he would have as a rookie in the NFL.
“Yes,” he said.
Daniels acknowledged that NIL made his choice to come back easier, but that it wasn’t the end-all, be-all. He knew he had room to improve if he was going to leave no doubt that he was worthy of a high draft pick. “I wanted to take my game to the next level,” he said.
So he changed his practice habits, getting in early each day. He also incorporated virtual reality training, donning a headset three times a week to get a better feel for the defenses that he’ll face and the look and feel of opposing stadiums.
He did some serious self-scouting as well, he said. And what he found was that while he could recognize the coverage and spot the open receiver, he was too hesitant.
“It’s a mental battle,” he said. “My preparation, that’s what made me confident. Last year, I was thinking a lot while I was playing. This year, I just wanted to go out there, play football, just play fast and have fun.”
Daniels has made a Burrow-esque Year 2 leap. He’s tied for the FBS lead in touchdown passes (25) — despite throwing only three interceptions — and ranks second in Total QBR (91.8). His rate of passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield per game has gone up from 10.6 to 14.9; no one has more completions of 20-plus yards this season (49).
If he’d turned pro and spent the year as a backup, he might never have gotten the reps needed to develop a more well-rounded game. In conversations with scouts, Kelly said he has told them, “You won’t have to worry about who’s first in, who’s last to leave, the tone in your locker room. You already have a pro.”
DANIELS BROKE INTO the open field against Auburn and decided, now’s the time.
He was going to show Nussmeier and the rest of the quarterbacks they were wrong about his inability to slide. But to quote the immortal Woody in “Toy Story,” what happened next wasn’t exactly a textbook slide. It was more like Daniels was “falling with style.”
“I turn to the sideline and everybody’s cheering,” Daniels recalled.
But they were laughing, too.
“It was awful,” Kelly said.
He asked Daniels whether he’d played baseball before. Daniels shook his head no.
“It looks like it,” Kelly told him.
So maybe he slides differently than most people, Daniels said, “but it’s effective.”
“It still worked out the same way,” he added. “I still pop right back up.”
True. But Kelly and the rest of the coaches are glad he’s at least making an effort to get down and protect himself from those big hits. They marvel how, given his slight frame, he keeps popping back up. A staff member compared him to Gumby — you can’t break bones that aren’t there.
Strength and conditioning staffers have told Kelly that although Daniels — standing 6-foot-4 — weighs only about 190 pounds, his body density is close to 170.
“He just needs to take what’s available and then be smart,” Kelly said. “I think he’s more aware of it now, and hopefully he’ll continue to make a better choice than getting cut in half.”
Daniels knows it’s a long season and he needs to protect himself.
“If we want to accomplish what we need to accomplish,” he said, “I need to be healthy.”
But just as he has to be unafraid in the passing game, he can’t be timid tucking the ball and running. He can’t help that he’s hardwired to fight for extra yards. It’s a product, he said, of playing defense growing up.
“I’ve always been a fearless runner,” he said. “Even though I’m a quarterback now, I was never afraid of contact.”
As a kid, he played in the streets of San Bernardino, California, where he said the rule was if it’s not broken, “shake it off.” After you get over the initial shock of a big hit, he added, the pain is usually manageable.
“He’s a tough kid,” Kelly said. “Tougher than I ever thought he was.”
The team, in turn, feeds off that toughness.
“I don’t know what he’s been throughout his life, but when you come to Louisiana, we’re different,” Nabers said. “When we play football, we don’t care. We don’t care if we got a bump or bruise. We don’t care if we got a hurt ankle, we’re going to get back up and we still keep going. So I think that he found his Louisiana way. That’s him showing that, ‘I’m from Cali, but I’m in The Boot now.'”
No one appreciates it more than Nabers when Daniels hangs in the pocket and throws passes deep downfield. But he’s no different from the rest of us when Daniels flees the pocket. He becomes a fan. He said he’ll catch himself thinking, “Oh, he’s breaking out, he’s juking, he just broke a tackle.”
“He’ll be flying,” Nabers said, forgetting that he needs to transition into a blocker.
And then Daniels runs into traffic, and Nabers is a fan all over again — this time a concerned one. He’ll find himself shouting, “Dude, go down, go down.”
“Damn,” he said, thinking back to one of those midair collisions, “that’s got to hurt.
“He said it doesn’t hurt. But I’m like, ‘Yeah, but one of them will.'”
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Cubs’ Horton exits after 3 IP ‘as a precaution’
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2 hours agoon
September 24, 2025By
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Bradford DoolittleSep 23, 2025, 09:58 PM ET
Close- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
CHICAGO — Right-hander Cade Horton was removed after three innings of his start in the Chicago Cubs‘ game against the New York Mets on Tuesday because of back tightness. The club said Horton was removed “as a precaution” after throwing just 29 pitches.
Horton, a leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, allowed a leadoff homer to New York’s Francisco Lindor but settled down and looked sharp for the remainder of his short outing. Horton allowed two hits, struck out two and departed with the Cubs leading 5-1.
After the Cubs extended the advantage to 6-1, New York rallied against the Chicago bullpen, scoring five unearned runs against Michael Soroka to tie the game and later grabbing the lead in a matchup with playoff implications for both clubs.
Horton, 24, is 11-4 on the season with a 2.67 ERA over 118 innings. The win total leads all rookie pitchers and the ERA leads rookies who have logged at least 100 innings.
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Guardians’ Fry exits after 99 mph pitch hits face
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3 hours agoon
September 24, 2025By
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ESPN News Services
Sep 23, 2025, 08:49 PM ET
CLEVELAND — Guardians designated hitter David Fry was carted off the field in the sixth inning of Tuesday night’s 5-2 win over the Detroit Tigers after being hit in the face by a pitch as he tried to bunt.
Fry squared around on a 99 mph fastball from Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, and the pitch struck him in the nose and mouth area before deflecting off his bat.
As Fry collapsed in the batter’s box and grabbed his face, a visibly shaken Skubal threw off his glove and cap as Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt and trainers rushed onto the field.
Fry laid in the batter’s box for several minutes before being slowly helped to his feet. He was driven off in a cart, and the Guardians later said he was being assessed at Lutheran Medical Center.
Fry was then transferred to the Cleveland Clinic Main Campus, where the team said he was likely to stay overnight for more testing and observation.
Skubal expressed concern afterward and said that he tried reaching out to Fry.
“I just want to make sure he’s all right,” Skubal said. “He seemed OK coming off the field, and hopefully it stays that way. I look forward to, hopefully tonight or tomorrow morning, getting a text from him and making sure he’s all good. There are things that are bigger than the game, and his health is more important than a baseball game.”
Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, paced around the infield as Fry was being helped. The left-hander then threw a wild pitch to George Valera, who replaced Fry, allowing Cleveland to score. Skubal was also called for a balk in the inning as the Guardians rallied for three runs to take a 3-2 lead.
With the win, Cleveland moved into a tie with Detroit for first place in the AL Central. The Guardians were 15½ games behind the Tigers on July 8 and still 12½ games back on Aug. 25.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Breaking down every conference
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5 hours agoon
September 24, 2025By
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The 12-team College Football Playoff has significantly broadened the pool of candidates to include any team that has a chance to win its conference — and that makes every FBS race matter longer, as the selection committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Heading into the final Saturday of September, the shifting continues as conference races are just beginning to heat up.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Ole Miss. The Rebels gained serious top-12 consideration this week after a 4-0 start that included back-to-back wins against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Arkansas) and a 45-10 drubbing of a talented Tulane team. Ole Miss is No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have a 47.7% chance to achieve the same record against the same opponents. The real test, though, is on Saturday when Ole Miss hosts LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC). If the Rebels win, they should be undefeated heading into back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma. Those are the most difficult games on the schedule. If the Rebels can go 2-1 against those three opponents, they’d almost certainly be in. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 67% chance to reach the playoff.
The enigma: Texas. The Longhorns dropped out of the top 12 this week because Texas Tech moved in. That doesn’t mean Texas isn’t a playoff team — it just hasn’t proved it yet with wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. The SEC season opener at Florida on Oct. 4 is also a strange one, as it’s a game the Longhorns could lose but shouldn’t if they are a real playoff team. They’ve got a bye week to prepare for it. A Texas win won’t do much to reassert its place in the national picture, but a loss would be telling. The most likely outcome is the selection committee will learn more about Texas on Oct. 11 against rival Oklahoma, which is in the projected top 12 this week.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Indiana. No team saw its playoff chances increase more this week than Indiana, which jumped 28% and now has a 57% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Saturday’s historic beatdown of the Illini pushed the Hoosiers to No. 11 in the latest projection, but that means they would be excluded from the field during the seeding process. IU would get bumped out to make room for Memphis, the projected winner of the American and fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because Memphis is currently projected outside of the committee’s top 12 — and projected Big 12 winner Texas Tech is currently in the No. 12 spot — the committee’s No. 11 team is the one that gets bounced. If the Hoosiers continue to dominate, though, they will likely climb to a safer spot within the top 10. Indiana has a tougher playoff path this year than last, as it travels to both Oregon and Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Hoosiers less than a 50% chance to beat the Ducks but projects them to beat Penn State.
The enigma: Michigan. The true identity of this team — whether it’s been with interim head coach Biff Poggi or head coach Sherrone Moore — remains a mystery. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has rebounded since the Week 2 loss at Oklahoma. Michigan found a way to win at Nebraska, the defense for the most part has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. The Wolverines most likely need to at least split with those opponents to avoid a third loss. If Michigan can do that and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee would give the Wolverines serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams would be out there — and how their résumés would stack up.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (12.2%), according to ESPN Analytics, behind Florida State and Miami. Georgia Tech doesn’t face either of those teams during the regular season — which is why the Jackets might not lose until the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And they took the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year in one of the wildest games of the season. If the Jackets finish as a one-loss team with a close loss to Georgia, they’d be in the ACC title game. Florida State and Miami play each other, so one of them has a guaranteed league loss. Georgia Tech would be a lock with an ACC title, but what if it loses, with its only two losses coming to two conference champions — Georgia and whoever wins the ACC? The committee would have a significant debate about this, and it would depend on how the game unfolded and how many other two-loss teams were out there. It’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the ACC runner-up in that scenario, which means the league could get three teams in.
The enigma: Syracuse. That’s right, the Syracuse team that beat Clemson. On the road. With its backup quarterback finishing the game. Are these guys for real? Their lone loss was to a Tennessee team that remains in the committee’s projected top 12. The wins, though, leave something to prove before Syracuse is taken seriously as a contender in the ACC, let alone the CFP. The Orange needed overtime to beat UConn, and the committee will look right over a 66-24 win against Colgate. It’s going to get more difficult, as the Orange will face Georgia Tech and have back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. And if Syracuse is going to keep winning, it’s going to have to do it with backup quarterback Rickie Collins, an LSU transfer. ESPN’s FPI gives the Orange less than a 50% chance to win each of those games and the Oct. 4 trip to SMU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging around at 4-0, but Texas Tech has eclipsed them as the team to beat in the Big 12 after Saturday’s win at Utah. The Red Raiders now have the best chance to win the league (28.6%), while Iowa State’s chances of even reaching the game are now seventh best at 13%. The Cyclones’ best win is against rival Iowa, as the season-opening win against K-State in Dublin has been diminished by the Wildcats’ 1-3 start. Iowa State had a bye week to prepare for Saturday’s home game against Arizona, which could be more difficult than it might seem. The key stretch for the Cyclones, though, starts on Oct. 25 against BYU, followed by Arizona State and a Nov. 8 trip to TCU.
The enigma: TCU. Just how good is this Horned Frogs team? The season-opening win at North Carolina caught the nation’s attention for all the wrong reasons — the focus was on Bill Belichick’s first loss as a college coach, not the Frogs’ road win. The 35-24 win against SMU was more impressive, even though it was at home, as it was against the best competition to date and the last scheduled game between the former Southwest Conference rivals. Coach Sonny Dykes has engineered the Frogs to a miracle playoff berth before. Can he do it again? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, TCU has the third-best chance in the Big 12 to reach the CFP (17.6%). If the Frogs don’t clinch a spot with a Big 12 title, it’s going to be tough to win a debate over other contenders if they finish with two losses.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish got their first win on Saturday against Purdue and earned some style points in the process, beating the Boilermakers 56-30. They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times. Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn’t a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are — and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The Tigers jumped into the top G5 spot following their 32-31 win against Arkansas on Saturday. Memphis edged South Florida for lead contender status for a playoff bid as one of the five projected highest-ranked conference champions. Memphis rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Arkansas, its fourth straight home win against an SEC opponent. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Memphis has a 36% chance to reach the playoff, the best among Group of 5 schools. The American has a 73% chance to send a team to the CFP, as four of the six Group of 5 teams with at least a 5% chance come from that conference (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane). Speaking of North Texas …
The enigma: North Texas. Meet the Mean Green, an undefeated team that has wins against Washington State and Army. It took overtime to beat both Army and Western Michigan on the road, but North Texas dismantled Washington State 59-10. South Florida and Navy are the two toughest opponents remaining, but North Texas doesn’t currently have any top-25 teams on its schedule. According to ESPN Analytics, it has the second-best chance to win the American (21.5%) behind Memphis (42.7%). Those teams don’t play each other during the regular season.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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Here are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024