Bellinger to Yankees? Ohtani to Dodgers? Best fits for the top 7 free agents
The day after the Texas Rangers won their first World Series title in franchise history, 130 players became free agents as baseball’s offseason season began.
While this year’s free-agent class doesn’t have as many big names as last year’s — when players such as Aaron Judge, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson were on the market — one of the best, and most coveted, players in the game, Shohei Ohtani, headlines this year’s group.
Who are the other free agents to watch as the hot stove season begins? We asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield to give their best fits — or the pairings they would most want to see — for the biggest free agents this season.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH (29 years old)
Doolittle: Los Angeles Dodgers. All along I’ve thought he’s going to sign with the Dodgers, and I suspect that is the strongest possibility. The Dodgers went a little light on maximizing their roster last year in order to stay flexible enough for this pursuit. So I’m going to go with them, though I could see the San Francisco Giants or Seattle Mariners, or even the Rangers, leaping into this race. But I just think the Dodgers are the perfect fit for Ohtani, with their history of working with starting pitchers, the availability that they have at the designated hitter slot and the fact they always win — not to mention the continued visibility for Ohtani in the L.A. market. In terms of money, there isn’t an offer that the Dodgers can’t match.
Olney: Dodgers. A friend of Ohtani said he believes Ohtani already knows where he wants to sign. He’ll go through the process — standing back as his agent negotiates and works to goose the final numbers — but in the end, Ohtani will drive this thing. So maybe the bidding doesn’t matter that much, so long as the team he wants to play for steps up with a decent offer. And my guess is that’ll be the Dodgers. One person in the Dodgers’ organization said president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is “obsessed” with Ohtani and that Friedman will put L.A. in position to land him. Ohtani would make the most sense, at this moment, for the Rangers — they have a blank checkbook and the time to let him heal as a pitcher — but I think Ohtani picks Southern California, again.
Passan: Dodgers. If there is a chalk pick to make, this is it, though I offer it with a low degree of confidence because there are plenty of viable suitors for Ohtani. The New York Mets have the owner most willing to spend money. The Giants have the greatest need for a franchise player. The Boston Red Sox are looking to overhaul their roster, and adding the best player in baseball certainly would do that. The Rangers would love to add to their championship squad. The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs have the money and the need. Even though Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 because of elbow surgery, the sheer number of options will make him the first $500 million player in North American professional sports history.
Schoenfield: Rangers. Look, we don’t know yet if Ray Davis is the type of owner to push the pedal to the metal and go even higher on his payroll, but I just wanted to type out this potential lineup:
2B Marcus Semien
SS Corey Seager
DH Shohei Ohtani
RF Adolis Garcia
CF Evan Carter
3B Josh Jung
1B Nathaniel Lowe
C Jonah Heim
LF Wyatt Langford
That could be the first 1,000-run lineup since Cleveland in 1999. The Rangers would soar past the luxury tax in 2024, but Martin Perez ($19.65 million), Brad Miller ($4 million), Mitch Garver ($3.9 million), Ian Kennedy ($2.25 million), Robbie Grossman ($2 million) and Jake Odorizzi ($2 million) are off the books. That’s almost $34 million. Max Scherzer (they’re responsible for $23 million of his salary), Nathan Eovaldi ($17 million) and Andrew Heaney ($13 million) are free agents after 2024 (Eovaldi has a vesting option), so the Rangers will be looking for rotation options anyway for 2025, when Ohtani would pitch again. But that lineup would be absolutely spectacular.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP (25)
Doolittle: Red Sox. Yamamoto is picking a perfect time to come over. Everyone got to see him in the World Baseball Classic, and that was impressive enough, but then he put up a 1.16 ERA over 171 innings in Japan this season while allowing just two home runs. He played in a league with a much lower homer rate than MLB, but that’s still sick. On top of all that, there are a lot of teams in need of a top-of-the-rotation starter. One of those teams is the Red Sox, whose new GM, Craig Breslow, is a former MLB hurler and whose rookie left fielder last season was Masataka Yoshida. As recently as 2022, Yoshida was the top hitter on the Orix Buffaloes. The top pitcher on that team? Yamamoto, of course.
Olney: New York Yankees. You might have heard that they had a down year in 2023, and if you look back at GM Brian Cashman’s history, whenever he gets into trouble, he has the same reflex — he grabs for pitching, perhaps believing it provides the best and quickest jolt. After a rough 2008, he coaxed Hal Steinbrenner into paying record-setting money for CC Sabathia, and then he did the same after the Red Sox won in 2018, landing Gerrit Cole. And my bet is that with the back end of the rotation thinned out, New York will make a move on Yamamoto.
Passan: Yankees. While it’s true the Yankees have a full rotation already, with Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Michael King and Clark Schmidt, the prospect of adding Yamamoto is too tempting to pass up. It’s not just that they’ve had great success with Japanese pitchers — such as Hiroki Kuroda and Masahiro Tanaka, the latter of whom is perhaps the most comparable to Yamamoto in age and success when he came to MLB — but the Yankees need to get younger, and they would be getting a prime-aged player without having to trade away any talent. Building around starting pitching is not the sort of strategy most modern teams embrace, but with a weak class of bats, it’s the best option for the Yankees.
Schoenfield: Mets. New president of baseball operations David Stearns played it down the middle in his introductory news conference, saying the goal is to make the team as competitive as possible in 2024 “while understanding that the long-term goal and the way to win a World Series is to have a truly sustainable competitiveness.” Yamamoto fits both criteria: He can help immediately — and the Mets need starters after trading Verlander and Max Scherzer — and he’s young enough to anchor the rotation for years to come. The Mets had great success with Kodai Senga in 2023, and Yamamoto is even better.
Doolittle: Yankees. They are the perfect fit, both for Bellinger’s swing and in terms of positional need. Bellinger is a lefty-swinging pull hitter, too aggressive to be called a pure take-and-rake guy, but the Yankees need some of that. He very much fits their mold, except that he also happens to be an exceptional athlete. You start an outfield with Bellinger and Judge, you’re most of the way there to an elite, two-way outfield (one eventually bolstered by the return of Jasson Dominguez, though perhaps not next season). Someday, when needed, Bellinger can shift back full time to first base and remain the right two-way player in the right ballpark. And on top of everything, Bellinger’s father, Clay, played for the Yankees during the Joe Torre era. Nothing but fit in this pairing.
Olney: Giants. He makes a ton of sense for the Yankees, for sure, as a left-handed hitter who has played and thrived in big markets, in L.A. and Chicago. They wouldn’t have to worry about whether he could handle the pressure of New York, and whether he’ll turn into another version of Joey Gallo. But he has had such a long history of peaks and valleys, and if the Yankees choose to dole out one big contract, my guess is it’ll go to a pitcher — their investment in a left-handed hitter will be more short term. The Giants want a star and are prepared to go above and beyond to make that happen, and they could sell Bellinger to their fans as a headliner, a former MVP taken away from their division rival. Bellinger goes for the biggest dollar here and in the end, that could be the team that has had trouble getting stars to take its money.
Passan: Giants. Farhan Zaidi, San Francisco’s president of baseball operations, has a history with Bellinger: He was the Dodgers’ general manager when Bellinger debuted and won Rookie of the Year. But this is less about shared experience than pure need. One look at the Giants’ offensive production last year and it’s clear they could use as much help as possible. After two brutal seasons, Bellinger spent this past season with the Cubs looking like his 2019 MVP self. Most telling: His strikeout rate dropped from 27.6% to a career-low 15.6%. In addition to his home runs, stolen bases and solid defense in center field and first base, Bellinger is the sort of all-around player around whom the Giants can build if they don’t win the Ohtani sweepstakes.
Schoenfield: Seattle Mariners. This is a long shot given their reluctance to sign free agents under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, but they have to be looking at the Rangers and thinking, “We have to spend some money if we want to compete with them” (and the Houston Astros). The Mariners need a left-handed, middle-of-the-order bat and, after ranking second in the majors in strikeouts, perhaps one that puts the ball in play. Bellinger did that in 2023, striking out just 15.7% of the time. He could replace Teoscar Hernandez in right, giving the Mariners a stellar defensive outfield, or play first base, allowing Ty France to slide into a DH role the Mariners have had trouble filling in recent years. Obviously, he comes with a large degree of risk given what he hit in 2021 and 2022, but some mechanical tweaks certainly helped, and that contact rate is a good sign for future productivity.
Doolittle: Philadelphia Phillies. Nola didn’t have the best platform season, though he did perform well enough in the playoffs. His track record remains top of the charts in terms of durability and volume, qualities that should attract plenty of attention in the market. His numbers were worse in 2021 than they were in 2023 but, in between, he enjoyed a 2022 season that was pretty close to Cy Young-caliber. So he has some variance in results even as the metrics on his pitches remain steady, meaning I think you pay him to be more a 2-3 pitcher than a 1-2, staff-saver type. And it’s hard to see a team where he fits better than the one with which he has been since being drafted seventh overall by the Phillies in 2014. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said retaining Nola is a priority, and that’s a big reason I think he eventually stays put after a little spin around the free agent market.
Olney: Phillies. Owner John Middleton has demonstrated he’ll go above and beyond for the Phillies family, and Nola is family. Knowing that Zack Wheeler will be a free agent after next season will also nudge the Phillies’ offer to Nola, and I don’t think he’s worth more to any team than he is to the team that drafted him. I don’t think the offers in free agency will be as robust as maybe some expect, and in the end, the Phillies will pay him well to stay home.
Passan: Atlanta Braves. Atlanta will prioritize starting pitching in free agency — as it should, with Kyle Wright out for 2024 following shoulder surgery and Charlie Morton’s team option declined. Adding Nola to a rotation with Spencer Strider and Max Fried would make for a 1-2-3 punch worthy of the Braves’ lineup. Nola certainly fits what the Braves prioritize in starting pitchers: low walks, high strikeouts, lots of innings. And while his 2023 left plenty to be desired, his expected numbers weren’t nearly as rough as his 4.46 ERA. Nola has never been a stuff guy, so in order for him to age gracefully, he’ll have to rely on control and command. And going from a catcher with some of the worst framing numbers in baseball in J.T. Realmuto to a team with two elite framers in Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud will only behoove him.
Schoenfield: Cubs. We know that when players reach free agency, the vast majority of them end up signing with a new team. It’s hard to imagine the Phillies not finding a way to re-sign Nola, but maybe they believe they have enough rotation depth with the emergence of Cristopher Sanchez — and they might be looking to pour big money into re-signing Zack Wheeler after 2024. The Cubs, meanwhile, are ready to make a big push for a division title after just missing a wild-card spot. Their rotation was 14th in the majors in ERA, and Marcus Stroman exercised his opt-out clause, so they have to replace him. Nola’s track record of health, durability and results makes him a pretty safe bet, even if he didn’t have his best season in 2023. That was mostly due to a spike in home run rate, and his strikeout-to-walk rate remains exceptional.
Doolittle: Milwaukee Brewers. Chapman is a fit for a lot of teams — the Cubs, Mariners, Blue Jays, perhaps Yankees. Because of that and a relative scarcity of top position players in this year’s free-agent class, he should make out well. Milwaukee is an upset pick, but I love the fit. Chapman would give the Brewers someone capable of hitting in the middle of the order while actually improving an already-airtight defense. The Brewers are rich in young position players, but Chapman wouldn’t really be blocking anyone in the system. I could see him playing across from Christian Yelich at some point if Yeli is moved to first base to make space for the Brewers’ surfeit of outfielders. As for the money, obviously there is a price point to which the Brewers aren’t likely to go. But a few years ago, they were ready to make a dual splash when they acquired (and paid) Yelich and Lorenzo Cain at the same time. This is a team trying to get over the hump, and landing Chapman is a good way to move in that direction.
Olney: Cubs. There is a ton of concern in the industry about Chapman’s slide after a hot start and his struggles against fastballs, so it’ll be interesting to see if he gets any big, big offers. Rival executives predicted Kris Bryant would get under $100 million, and he wound up getting more than double that number from the Colorado Rockies, making you wonder if there’s some team that’ll bet really big that Chapman’s offense comes back. His defense provides a strong baseline of performance, and if you added him to an infield with Swanson and Nico Hoerner, that would make free agent pitchers dream of taking the mound for the Cubs. I’m guessing Chicago.
Passan: Mets. Third base has been a bugaboo for New York since David Wright’s retirement, and with Brett Baty perhaps not the solution and no third basemen in the Mets’ system near big league-ready, Chapman solves an immediate and clear problem. Further, Stearns long prioritized infield defense in his previous job with Milwaukee, and for all of the warranted concerns about Chapman’s bat, his glove remains tip-top. The Mets have plenty of holes to fill, yes, and they’re not likely to go on a spending spree like they did last offseason. Chapman would provide a solid addition to a team that’s far closer to being good than its record last season indicated.
Schoenfield: Arizona Diamondbacks. I’d be wary of Chapman given his second-half slide (.663 OPS), concerns about declining bat speed (he had only one extra-base hit to the pull side against pitches 95 mph or faster) and defensive metrics that, while still above average, aren’t as elite as a few years ago. The one contending team with an obvious hole at third base is the Diamondbacks. They ranked 27th in the majors in OPS at third base and got little from Evan Longoria or backup Emmanuel Rivera in their postseason run (.200/.237/.255). They could slide top prospect Jordan Lawlar over there, but I don’t know why you would move him off shortstop (a trade of Geraldo Perdomo seems more likely if Lawlar is ready). Chapman fills a need and has averaged 3.8 WAR the past three seasons.
Doolittle: St. Louis Cardinals. I’m fascinated by the comparison of free agents Snell and Jordan Montgomery, two lefties who are almost the same age (Monty is 23 days younger) and go about things very differently. The Cardinals have said that landing veteran starting pitching is an offseason priority. While going after Montgomery, with whom they are so familiar, makes sense, Snell might be the better pursuit because he’s a pure power pitcher with the kind of strikeout rate the St. Louis staff desperately needs. Snell, coming off a likely Cy Young Award win, will have a robust market, and perhaps the Cardinals are something of an upset pick here. But I’m going with it.
Olney: Yeah, I agree with Brad: Cardinals. St. Louis is desperate for help and seems to be more likely to overpay and overlook possible concerns, like Snell’s walk rate. Other teams will be scared away by some of the peripheral numbers, but the Cardinals aren’t really in position to turn their noses up at a left-hander who has won one Cy Young Award and will soon win another — not when there are so many empty slots in their rotation.
Passan: Phillies. If Nola leaves, the Phillies are unlikely to go into next season without addressing their rotation. And while they could do so via the trade market — Tyler Glasnow would be a pretty great fit, as would Shane Bieber — getting someone like Snell, whose strikeout and weak-contact rates align well with the Phillies’ below-average defense, fits quite well. Add in the fact that the Phillies boast a deep bullpen, and it allays fears that Snell not going deep into games is problematic. Philadelphia isn’t scared of high-walk pitchers — especially if they have the stuff and the ability to limit damage like Snell does, with the second-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest homer rate among starters in 2023.
Schoenfield: Dodgers. They have seen plenty of Snell in recent years, and he has a 2.59 ERA against them in 13 regular-season starts — and that doesn’t include his infamous World Series start in 2020. With the news that Clayton Kershaw will undergo shoulder surgery and be sidelined until next summer (he’s a free agent but said he wants to keep pitching), the Dodgers’ rotation is in even more disarray than it was in the postseason. They need starters. Snell’s year-to-year inconsistency and durability can be frustrating, but the upside — one Cy Young Award with a second on the way — is so high that the Dodgers should be willing to take the gamble. Sure, Ohtani would be the dream, but you can make the case that with Ohtani’s pitching future uncertain, maybe they should spread their money out to a couple of starting pitchers this offseason.
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Jordan Montgomery, SP (30)
Doolittle: Rangers. Montgomery fit so well with Texas, and developed such a quick and close relationship with catcher Jonah Heim, it’s really hard to envision him wanting to leave the world champions. But of course, free agents do leave good spots all the time because it usually comes down to the best offer. The Rangers are willing to spend but the thing is, by next October they could have a rotation that has Scherzer, deGrom and Nate Eovaldi. That could push someone even as good as Montgomery, who pitched so well in this year’s postseason, into the fourth role. Also, even with the Mets picking up a sizable chunk of Scherzer’s tab, Texas is already committed to a lot of money in its rotation. But keeping Monty is too good to pass up. Let’s say the Rangers get back to October. They could have Scherzer, deGrom and Eovaldi lined up, with Monty and Jon Gray in hybrid roles behind them and — just maybe — Josh Hader waiting at the back of the bullpen. Get used to those parades, Arlington.
Olney: Rangers. For many years, the owner who was most willing to spend from his personal fortune — rather than within the revenue constraints of the team — was the Detroit Tigers’ Mike Ilitch, and then in recent years, that has been the San Diego Padres’ Peter Seidler and the Mets’ Steve Cohen. Quietly, the Rangers’ Ray Davis has joined that group. At 81 years old, he has decided he wants to win baseball championships, and he’s doing everything he can to make that happen. Like signing Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for a half-billion dollars. Like outbidding the rest of the industry for deGrom by about 80%. Like giving up a top prospect to deal for a future Hall of Famer in Scherzer at the deadline. Montgomery thrived with Texas after joining them from the Cardinals, and he seemed to really enjoy working with pitching coach Mike Maddux and manager Bruce Bochy, winning a championship. It seems inevitable that the Rangers will give the lefty whatever he needs to re-sign.
Passan: Red Sox. They want to win now, and while they have spent some in free agency in recent years — Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story were nine-figure signings — they have no money committed to starting pitching beyond this season. Not only is Montgomery a veteran of the AL East, having come up with the Yankees, he more than proved himself a playoff-capable pitcher, helping lead the Rangers to a World Series title this year. Boston’s new chief baseball officer, Breslow, made his mark with the Cubs as their director of pitching, and he knows if the Red Sox are to improve, complementing their strong bullpen with an equally robust rotation is a good place to begin.
Schoenfield: Cincinnati Reds. I’d put the Rangers as the favorite here, too, but file this one under the category of, “They could really use him and it would be fun to see.” Yes, the Reds never spend in free agency (except for that one offseason when they signed Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas), but they have an exciting young core and a super inexpensive roster — one in need of a veteran guy like Montgomery who can chew up innings. Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo all have intriguing upside, but none of those players have proven they can make it through a full season and remain effective at the same time. The Reds ranked 25th in rotation ERA and could use a stabilizing presence on the mound. Do I expect the Castellini family to spend? Of course not. But Reds fans can hope for a surprise.
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David Schoenfield
The early returns from the MLB trade deadline are filtering in. The dog days of August are challenging pitching staffs. The Boston Red Sox are humming, the New York Yankees are stumbling and the New York Mets might be crumbling. Yes, it’s going to be a fun stretch drive.
How do the postseason races stand? Let’s break down the contenders into playoff tiers.
Tier I: The locks
Biggest surprise: Andrew Vaughn has been raking since coming over from the White Sox in a trade in which Chicago was clearing him off its roster. Rhys Hoskins might return from the injured list later this month, but Vaughn has hit so well that Hoskins has likely been Wally Pipp-ed and relegated to part-time DH duty (depending on how often Christian Yelich can play the outfield). Vaughn has — so far — provided some much-needed power, which had been the Brewers’ only weakness.
Injury to watch: Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is out because of a shin contusion but should be back soon, and the Brewers probably welcomed the break to limit his innings anyway. So keep an eye on Jackson Chourio, who is likely out a couple more weeks because of a strained hamstring. Chourio had been red-hot in July, with an OPS over 1.000 before hitting the IL.
Player to watch: Brandon Woodruff. The one-time Brewers ace hadn’t pitched since September 2023 before finally returning in July and has delivered six excellent starts with a 2.29 ERA, 45 strikeouts and just six walks.
His fastball velocity isn’t where it was before his shoulder injury, but Woodruff has been locating where he wants, as batters are hitting .111 against his four-seamer and .156 against his sinker. A playoff rotation with Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Misiorowski and Quinn Priester, who has won 10 consecutive decisions, looks like one that could deliver the Brewers their first World Series title.
Biggest surprise: Well, there are two ways to look at this. The Dodgers are in the bottom half of the majors in ERA with Yoshinobu Yamamoto their only starter who has been in the rotation all season. Sitting in first place despite those injury issues can be viewed as a pleasant surprise. Or maybe it’s a bad surprise that a team that was a huge favorite to run away with the National West has to fight for the division title.
The Dodgers have essentially used a six-man rotation all season, with pitchers making just seven starts on four days of rest. Yamamoto hasn’t started on all four days of rest all season. With the Dodgers battling the Padres for the division crown, will manager Dave Roberts go to a five-man rotation? What about in the postseason, when four days of rest is generally the norm if you want to use just your top four starters?
Injury to watch: Just one? While the rotation is slowly getting healthier (Blake Snell is back), late-game relievers Tanner Scott (elbow) and Kirby Yates (back) are on the IL.
Player to watch: With Mookie Betts seemingly mired in seasonlong mediocrity, the Dodgers will need Freddie Freeman to heat up again. The first baseman was hitting .374 with a 1.078 OPS through May but then hit .226 with just two home runs in June and July. In late July, he said he fixed something in his swing, and he hit .400 with three home runs in his first 14 games after that proclamation. If Freeman is back, the offense might be the best in the majors again.
Biggest surprise: The Blue Jays were 26-28 on May 27 but have the second-best record in the majors since, and journeyman starter Eric Lauer has been a key reason. After not pitching in the majors in 2024 and finishing the season in Korea, he joined the rotation for good on June 11 and has gone 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA since then, with the Jays winning nine of his 11 starts.
Injury to watch: The Jays signed Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million contract after a 44-homer season with the Orioles, but he has been out since May 29 because of a shoulder injury and hit just .179 before that. Getting back a productive Santander would help boost an outfield that has been mix-and-match all season.
Player to watch: The Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber from Cleveland at the trade deadline, getting a pitcher still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He should have two more rehab starts before he’s ready to join the rotation — and the Blue Jays will be counting on him to be in the playoff rotation.
Depending on how Bieber performs, it wouldn’t be shocking for him to leapfrog Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter. Lauer and Max Scherzer will be in that mix, with Chris Bassitt hanging around as well. That rotation depth is why the Jays rate as the heavy favorite to win the division — and at the minimum look like a playoff lock.
Biggest surprise: Everyone knew about Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s defense, but certainly nobody expected him to hit for this kind of power and turn into an MVP candidate in his first full season. He’s doing it despite the highest swing rate in the majors, which gives him one of the worst chase rates. He would have the lowest OBP for an MVP winner. Still, he had his highest monthly batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.637) in July, although he’s slumping in August.
Injury to watch: The big one was Justin Steele going down for the season because of Tommy John surgery. Jameson Taillon is still out because of a calf strain. The Cubs acquired Michael Soroka at the deadline to help the rotation, but he lasted two innings in his first start before going down because of a sore shoulder, and his availability the rest of the season is unknown.
Player to watch: Rookie starter Cade Horton is emerging as a force. He joined the rotation in May and had a 4.80 ERA through his first two months but has allowed no runs in five of his past six starts, including his past four in a row. Coming off an injury-plagued 2024, the Cubs are being very conservative with the 23-year-old’s pitch counts (fewer than 90 pitches in his past four outings), but he has been efficient enough to give them five or six innings.
Some of Horton’s peripheral numbers — so-so strikeout rate, not a ton of swing-and-miss — don’t necessarily match up with all the zeros, but he’s limiting hard contact. With Soroka out, Horton is vital to the Cubs’ hopes of running down the Brewers in the NL Central.
Biggest surprise: Kyle Schwarber hitting a lot of home runs is hardly a surprise — he has reached 40 three times — but Schwarber as a potential MVP candidate? That wasn’t on anyone’s preseason scorecard. OK, maybe that’s still a long shot given that Crow-Armstrong’s all-around value gives the Cubs outfielder a big edge in WAR and Shohei Ohtani is now pitching to go with his Schwarber-like offensive numbers. Still, Schwarber looks unstoppable at the plate right now and leads the NL in home runs and RBIs as his OPS inches closer to 1.000.
Injury to watch: Aaron Nola has been on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his right rib and has made a couple of rehab starts, so he should be returning to the rotation soon. The Phillies haven’t really missed him because of their pitching depth, but a healthy Nola will bump Taijuan Walker from the rotation, plus he could leap over Jesus Luzardo as the fourth starter in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: Trea Turner hit well for three months to begin the season but went homerless in July, and his OBP dropped way off. At his best, he’s an offensive force who hits for average and some power while setting the table for Bryce Harper and Schwarber behind him. He can also have spells when he starts chasing too much and the offense dries up. The Phillies are a lock to get in, but they need the best version of Turner down the stretch to hold off the Mets in the NL East.
Tier II: Should get in
What they need to do to become a lock: The Tigers seemed like a lock when they held a 14-game lead in the American League Central before the All-Star break while playing like the best team in baseball. Then they lost 12 out of 13 games, and Cleveland got hot. The Guardians are at least close enough to put a little fear in the Tigers.
The lineup scuffled in July, but the bullpen still feels like the key here. The Tigers are 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA and 28th in reliever strikeout rate. It’s not good when you’re ranked with the Nationals and Rockies. They added some reinforcements at the trade deadline, but Kyle Finnegan and Rafael Montero aren’t solutions.
Injury to watch: The Tigers signed Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15 million contract in the offseason, but the 37-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in the majors this season because of hip inflammation. After his first rehab stint was cut short in June, he’s trying to get healthy enough to provide a boost to the rotation.
The Tigers traded for Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack, but Cobb could be in the same scenario he was with Cleveland last season, when he made just three regular-season starts but was in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: It has been an odd season for Riley Greene, whose strikeout rate is over 32% and whose walk rate has plummeted from last season (11% to 6%). The home run and RBI numbers are there, although he has been in a deep slump since the All-Star break. Can he be consistent enough to lead the Detroit offense and deliver in crunch time, or will the better pitchers in the postseason exploit his swing-and-miss tendencies?
What they need to do to become a lock: In 2022, the Padres made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader and eventually reaching the NLCS. This deadline, general manager A.J. Preller was again on a mission, trading top prospect Leo De Vries to acquire Athletics closer Mason Miller to strengthen what was already perhaps the game’s best bullpen. Preller also filled some holes in the lineup with the additions of Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin.
The Padres have the deepest bullpen and a deeper lineup. Will that be enough to cover their lack of power (next to last in the majors in home runs) and a middle-of-the-pack rotation (getting Dylan Cease on a roll would be nice)? Maybe. But it’s clear that to not just lock up that playoff spot but also chase down the Dodgers in the NL West, Padres manager Mike Shildt will have to ride those bullpen arms.
Injury to watch: On Saturday, Michael King made his first start since May 18 after being out with a pinched nerve in his shoulder. If King is at full health, having him and Nick Pivetta lead the rotation would pair nicely with that loaded bullpen.
Player to watch: Second-year center fielder Jackson Merrill hasn’t replicated his rookie power numbers, and his OBP cratered in July, when he hit .196/.262/.304. The early returns are better this month, and though the Padres upgraded their offensive depth, they need Merrill to be a force.
New York Mets
What they need to do to become a lock: It’s not so easy to buy your way into the playoffs, is it? The Mets correctly upgraded a struggling bullpen by adding Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto, but now it’s the offense that is going through some rough times. Despite adding Juan Soto and getting a much better season from Pete Alonso (he has already surpassed last year’s RBI total), the Mets are scoring fewer runs per game than in 2024.
The Mets were 21-10 at the end of April with a plus-54 run differential. Since then, they’ve gone 42-45 with a minus-24 run differential. Soto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have scuffled of late, and Soto has been terrible all season with runners in scoring position (.190/.331/.360). There’s too much talent here for the Mets to miss the playoffs.
Injury to watch: Tylor Megill, out with an elbow sprain, is the one injured player who could return and help, whether in the rotation or the bullpen.
Player to watch: Soto. It’s time for him to put the team on his back.
Tier III: Have work to do
How they make the playoffs: Hit better with runners in scoring position. The trade deadline additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, plus the gradual improvement of rookie Cole Young and the surprising production from Dominic Canzone, have made this one of the deeper lineups in the league. The Mariners rank 10th in OPS and second in road OPS — but they’re just 24th in OPS with runners in scoring position.
Injury to watch: Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) has made two rehab starts. He threw four scoreless innings in the first outing but served up three home runs in the second. His fastball velocity was sitting at 96. He could be in line for two more starts before potentially replacing Logan Evans in the rotation — and giving the Mariners their projected five-man group for the first time all season.
Player to watch: Naylor was acquired for his bat, not his legs, but he is running like Rickey Henderson since joining the M’s, swiping 10 bases in his first 13 games — pretty remarkable for a player who ranks in the third percentile of all players in running speed. He left Thursday’s game because of some discomfort after a swing, but the Mariners said it’s likely just a day-to-day situation.
Boston Red Sox
How they make the playoffs: Keep pitching like they have. While going 24-10 since June 30, the Red Sox have a 3.08 ERA. Garrett Crochet has led the way and is now toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but Lucas Giolito is also 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 11 starts and Brayan Bello is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA since July 1.
Injury to watch: Though he’s not on the IL, closer Aroldis Chapman left a game in late July because of back tightness. He has allowed one earned run over his past 32 innings, so keeping the 37-year-old healthy is vital.
Player to watch: Rookie outfielder Roman Anthony just signed an eight-year, $130 million extension (escalators could bring the total value up to $230 million). Though the 21-year-old has shown precocious plate discipline that suggests the bright future the Red Sox are banking on, his home run power hasn’t shown up yet, in part because he’s still hitting a lot of balls on the ground. He’s already good, but maybe he’ll be great down the stretch.
How they make the playoffs: Have Carlos Correa turn back the clock. In a shocking trade deadline deal, the Astros reacquired their former shortstop to play third base with Isaac Paredes injured. Correa was having a poor season with the Twins, with the worst OPS of his career, although he has hit better in his first week with the Astros. With an offense that has been forced to play a lot of Triple-A fillers because of injuries, Correa could provide a huge boost.
Injury to watch: Will Yordan Alvarez make it back? The superstar DH has played just 29 games, none since May 2, because of a right hand fracture. He has been taking batting practice in Florida. Meanwhile, Paredes remains out because of a serious hamstring injury, choosing rehab with the hope of returning this season. Center fielder Jake Meyers is still rehabbing a calf strain.
Player to watch: The Astros have struggled to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez because of the injuries. Spencer Arrighetti just returned from the 60-day IL and allowed 11 hits and five runs in 3⅔ innings. He had a strong second half last season, so the Astros would love for him to step up as a strong No. 3 starter.
New York Yankees
How they make the playoffs: Hit better. Field better. Pitch better. Run the bases better. The Yankees are 20-31 since June 13, losing 10 games in the standings and dropping from first to third place.
It has been a comedy of errors at times, but, at the minimum, they need the bullpen to figure things out. The Yankees rank in the bottom third of the majors in bullpen win probability added. Maybe David Bednar‘s five-out save the other day will at least settle down the closer situation, as he’s likely to take over that role from Devin Williams.
Injury to watch: Aaron Judge is back from the flexor strain in his elbow that sidelined him for 10 days, although still serving only as a DH. It shouldn’t affect his offense, but the Yankees would love to get him back on the field defensively so they can use Giancarlo Stanton, who had been hot, as the DH. Stanton is unplayable on defense, so he’s limited to pinch-hitting duties with Judge occupying the DH spot.
Player to watch: If Judge is producing, the Yankees will score. The bullpen has the talent to get hot down the stretch. But suddenly, the rotation has some concerns as well. Carlos Rodon has walked 15 over his past 20 innings across four starts. Even going back to June 8, his ERA is just 4.50 after a great first two months. Is he a reliable No. 2 starter behind Max Fried?
Tier IV: The long shots
How do they get in? Continue to ride Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom in the rotation, figure out the closer situation and have the offense keep hitting like it did in July, when it was better than it had been all season.
Journeyman Robert Garcia had been closing of late, but he gave up two critical home runs to the Mariners last weekend and now that role is once again in flux. The Rangers are done with the Mariners, but their six remaining games against the Astros loom large.
How do they get in? The Guardians looked out of it when they were 40-48 in early July, with the Tigers seemingly running away with the division. But Cleveland has gone 21-8 since then, and the upcoming schedule is pretty soft as they finish this series against the White Sox and then play the Marlins, Braves and Diamondbacks.
Six games against the Tigers in September means the AL Central might not be decided until then. The offense, hitting just .224 through July 6, has averaged more than five runs per game since then, with a lot more of the timely hitting we saw last season. It helps that Jose Ramirez got hot right at that time.
Tier V: The really long shots
How do they get in? They’re the seventh team in a race where only six teams get in, so they’ll need to get some help, which the Mets seem to be accommodating right now. But the Reds also need to get the rotation back in a groove.
After posting a 3.69 ERA in April and 3.17 in May, the rotation ERA rose to 4.52 in June and 4.16 in July, but there are some positive developments. Hunter Greene is about ready to return from his rehab, and Zack Littell had a terrific first start with the Reds after coming over in a deadline deal, allowing one run in seven innings with a season-high 15 swing-and-misses.
How do they get in? If the Reds need a little help, the Giants will need a lot of help. They blew up the bullpen, which had been the strength of the team, by trading Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, so we’ll see whether they have enough depth there. Same with the rotation. With Landen Roupp injured and Hayden Birdsong demoted to the minors, the rotation features recent call-ups Carson Whisenhunt and Kai-Wei Teng. Justin Verlander has reeled off three good starts in a row, although each was limited to five innings. They’ll need those three to pitch well behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
How do they get in? In the American League, anything still feels possible. Just look at last year, when the Tigers were already buried at this point, only to reel off an improbable run to the postseason. The Royals would need to leap past three teams to get a wild card, but if the Yankees keep fading, all it would take is a little hot streak to jump past Texas and Cleveland as well.
The Royals will have to score more runs, but the offense had its best month, and it has had a few big offensive games in August. Bobby Witt Jr. has had another strong season, but what if he really heats up like he did last July and August?
How do they get in? They’ve run hot and cold all season, going 16-12 in May and 17-10 in June before stumbling to 7-18 in July. The key will be the offense, which scored 151 runs in June but just 98 in July. Junior Caminero saw his OPS drop 150 points; Jonathan Aranda dropped over 100 points and then fractured his wrist; Brandon Lowe got injured and had just two RBIs in nine games (he’s back now); and Josh Lowe hit .186. The odds are slim, but we’ve learned to never count out the Rays.
How do they get in? The starting pitching will have to improve, as the Cardinals rank 25th in rotation ERA and 29th in strikeout rate. That suggests improvement — at least enough to produce a late surge — is unlikely. Oh, the offense also tanked in July.
It looks as if it will be a third straight season without making the playoffs. No wonder attendance has declined to its lowest per-game average since 1995 (not including 2021) and because that was the post-strike year, the lowest in a non-strike-affected year since 1984.
How do they get in? When the Marlins swept the Yankees last weekend to climb to .500, they momentarily offered a glimpse of hope, climbing six games out of a wild card. Then they lost three of four, so their playoff odds have dipped back to around 1%. You never know, of course, and maybe Sandy Alcantara will suddenly reel off eight Cy Young-caliber starts in a row.
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