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Baseball never rests.

Sure, the 2023 season, postseason included, is fully in the books, wrapped up with the Texas Rangers‘ World Series Game 5 win on Nov. 1. But for us fantasy analysts, 2024 is already firmly in our sights. For this columnist, it began with the all-too-early rankings — both points-based and rotisserie! — immediately following the regular season’s conclusion.

However, the real jump-start moment of the new season for many of us is the First Pitch Arizona conference, annually coinciding with the Arizona Fall League’s “Fall Stars Game” weekend, generally scheduled for the first weekend of November and directly before the beginning of the annual free agency period. Yes, this year’s event began less than 24 hours after the 2023 season concluded. Welcome to the year-round process that is fantasy baseball analysis.

For those who have never attended, First Pitch Arizona is a great opportunity to scout prospects and prospective 2024 rookies, reassess some of our findings from the most recent season and, most importantly, connect with many of the brightest minds (and players) in the industry. On the prospect front, be sure to check out Eric Karabell’s informative look at some of the Arizona Fall League’s prospect class, found here.

As far as major leaguers — and certain 2024 draft picks — are concerned, here are some of my weekend takeaways that were most relevant from a rankings perspective:

Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Angels: Among the most-asked-about players related to injuries, Ohtani should be ready to serve as a full-time hitter from the onset of 2023, but be unable to pitch again until the beginning of 2024. That said, we don’t at all know the specifics of his Sept. 19 elbow surgery, so it’s understandable that fantasy managers might have some doubt about his utility for our purposes come Opening Day.

My theory — shared at the conference — is that we’ll get further details, enough to confidently make our draft-day judgments, only once Ohtani comes to terms with his new team. That’s why I’m taking him at his word, that he will be a 162-games-available DH in 2024, and drafting him as a first-rounder (whereas he’s the No. 14 pick on average through the NFBC’s first 19 offseason drafts, with a low-end selection of 29th overall). At least, this is the case until we get more information.

Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B, Cincinnati Reds: Speaking of those early NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) ADP returns, De La Cruz’s are out of control, seeing him at No. 20 overall with high and low selections of 15th and 35th. To be clear, I love the guy and see a potentially spectacular career ahead for him. For 2024 alone, however, he’s much more rotisserie-angled, and more likely to set the single-season record for strikeouts than to return top-25 overall fantasy value.

Yainer Diaz, C, Houston Astros: There’s plenty of chatter about his prospective 2024 role, especially after general manager Dana Brown told KPRC-2 Houston recently that Diaz is “going to be the main guy” behind the plate. Diaz only once all season started as many as five games across any 10-game span, had subpar framing metrics (minus-4 runs above average, per Statcast) and the team’s highest ERA when catching (4.06), but he also had well-above-average raw power metrics (96th percentile expected slugging percentage, 79th percentile Barrel rate) that appeal to fantasy managers.

The fact that he has practically never seen a pitch he didn’t want to swing at — his 44% chase and 59% overall swing rates were second- and third-highest among hitters with at least as many as his 377 plate appearances — casts him a shaky points-league pick, but Diaz should carry top-10 positional value in rotisserie leagues as a starter.

Lucas Giolito, SP, Free Agent: After he became the first player in the modern era to surrender eight-plus runs in a game for three different teams — and he did so within a 49-day, 9-start span at that — it’s interesting to hear anyone make a “buy low” case for the free agent. Still, that was the case — granted, hardly a passionate one — during Saturday’s pitching spotlight panel, and it’s a fair point that he’s still only 29 years old and had seven 20-point fantasy performances in 2023 (the same number as Ohtani, Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta, for a reference point). He’ll be a pitcher on my spring watch list.

DL Hall, RP, Baltimore Orioles: While everyone gravitates to Yennier Cano as the Orioles’ prospective 2024 closer, Hall is the skilled alternative who meets the sleeper description. His trio of offerings (four-seam fastball, slider, changeup) each had at least a 30% whiff rate (percentage of hitters’ swings that were flat-out misses) and his 33% career minor league strikeout rate says he has the potential for more. Saturday’s pitching panel brought a universal opinion that Cano is a less-attractive fantasy closer than either Adbert Alzolay or Andres Munoz.

Cole Ragans, SP/RP, Kansas City Royals: He’s a tough pitcher in whom to completely believe, his 12-start outburst following his June 30 trade from the Texas Rangers (along with fellow prospect Roni Cabrera for Aroldis Chapman) displaying skills he had never before in eight professional seasons. Still, Ragans’ adjustments lent a good share of legitimacy to the performance, and the overall conference vibe was that it was very much legit.

Thanks in large part to his work with Tread Athletics during the 2022-23 offseason, Ragans added an astonishing 4.4 mph of average velocity to his four-seam fastball — at 96.5 mph, it was the game’s 11th-fastest (among pitchers with at least 10 starts), just behind Gerrit Cole — and exhibited more balance in his delivery, things that should carry over smoothly into 2024. Better questions regarding his repeat prospects should center on his being a two-time Tommy John surgery returnee (done back-to-back in 2018 and 2019) or that he totaled only 96 innings in 2023 and never more than 134 2/3 in any pro year.

On the topic of quality starts

One of the reasons I haven’t been nearly as passionate about the inclusion of quality starts in rotisserie scoring, or in the rotisserie 6×6 format which I previously wrote about annually, is the sharp decline in the category’s production.

My big pitch for 5×5 managers to migrate their leagues to 6×6 came in 2014, which was ultimately the year that saw the most quality starts in history. Last season, by comparison, there were 940 fewer quality starts than there were just nine seasons earlier, and the league’s overall QS rate has been beneath 40% for five years running — the five lowest such rates in a season since World War I (and be aware that it’s difficult to verify how much further back that might be true, since earned runs weren’t an official stat until 1912).

Simply put, there aren’t enough quality starts to go around to populate a 6×6 pool these days, and I’m increasingly in favor of a switch back to wins, at least in the absence of a more compelling category. Another point in wins’ favor: In 2013, 59% of all starts resulted in a quality start and 34% resulted in a win. Last season, 35% of all starts resulted in a quality start and 29% in a win.

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MacKinnon keys Avs’ win over Stars in Game 1

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MacKinnon keys Avs' win over Stars in Game 1

DALLAS — Nathan MacKinnon had a part in both of Colorado’s strange goals in the second period before adding an empty-netter late as the Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 5-1 in the opener of their first-round Western Conference playoff series Saturday night.

MacKinnon scored on a shot that deflected off Stars defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin, and knuckled past goalie Jake Oettinger late in the second period. That came during an extended power play, a double minor against the Stars after he took a high stick to the face.

That came after MacKinnon’s assist midway through the second period on a goal by Artturi Lehkonen, who was following his initial shot and falling down after a collision in front of the net when the puck ricocheted off his lower left leg into the top corner of the net. The play was reviewed and officials ruled that there was no kicking motion by Lehkonen while tumbling to the ice with Mavrik Bourque.

“He was really good tonight,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said. “You know, like, obviously they’re going to key on him — like we do on some of their players — but really strong defensive game from him. And obviously, his get-up-and-go on the offensive side of it, he’s making plays all night. I thought that line was dangerous.”

There wasn’t much Oettinger could do on either of those goals as the Stars lost Game 1 in their eighth consecutive series in the NHL playoffs since 2022. They are 0-7 in series openers under coach Pete DeBoer, six of those coming at home. DeBoer saw progress, however, calling the effort Saturday night “the best game we’ve played in 3-4 weeks.”

Devon Toews gave Colorado a 3-1 lead with 7:04 left. MacKinnon’s empty-net tally for his 50th career playoff goal came with 3:08 left, 11 seconds before Charlie Coyle scored.

This series-opening loss for the Stars came after they finished the regular season on an 0-5-2 stretch that included four losses at home after being 28-5-3 before that.

Game 2 is Monday night in Dallas, before the series shifts to Denver.

Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 23 shots in his first career playoff game.

It was pretty special,” Blackwood said. “I’ve been waiting to play in the playoffs for a long time and it was great to finally get my first one.”

Blackwood was one of 11 players who have seen action since being acquired through Colorado’s eight in-season trades. Those deals included the Avalanche trading Mikko Rantanen on Jan. 24 to Carolina in the East. He played only 13 games before a deadline deal March 7 sent him back to the Central Division with the Stars and included an eight-year, $96 million contract extension.

Rantanen, who had 101 points (34 goals, 67 assists) in 81 playoff games for the Avalanche, had three shots and one block over 18 minutes in his postseason debut with the Stars.

Oettinger had 19 saves, three when Colorado had a two-man advantage in the first period when Cale Makar drew two tripping penalties only 36 seconds apart from each other.

Roope Hintz, who had the penalty against MacKinnon, trimmed the Stars’ deficit to 2-1 on his goal with 13:15 left in the game, just before the end of a power play and about a minute after DeBoer called a timeout.

Bednar got his 50th playoff win with the Avs — in his 82nd postseason game, equal to a full regular season. That broke a tie with Bob Hartley for the most wins by a coach in franchise history. Both won Stanley Cups — Bednar in 2022 and Hartley in 2001.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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‘Incredible third period’ rescues Jets in Game 1

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'Incredible third period' rescues Jets in Game 1

WINNIPEG, Manitoba — Kyle Connor‘s one-timer with 1:36 remaining in the third period snapped a 3-3 tie, and the No. 1 seed Winnipeg Jets survived a Game 1 scare — and some shaky goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck — to post a 5-3 victory over the St. Louis Blues in the opener of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Connor also contributed a pair of assists and captain Adam Lowry capped the victory with an empty-netter with 53 seconds left, much to the delight of the “whiteout” full house of 15,225 fans at the Canada Life Centre.

“There were some emotional swings. Obviously, we didn’t get off to the start we wanted,” Lowry said during his postgame bench interview, aired on the arena’s jumbotron. “But what an incredible third period, what an incredible atmosphere. And we’re real happy with the result.”

Game 2 in the best-of-seven series is Monday in Winnipeg, and the home team knows it will need a more complete effort in their own zone if it is to gain a 2-0 series lead. Hellebuyck made 14 saves en route to the win, but in allowing three goals in the first two periods, he finished with a concerning .824 save percentage.

But Mark Scheifele had a goal and two assists and Jaret Anderson-Dolan also scored for the Jets, who won the Presidents’ Trophy for the NHL’s best regular-season record (56-22-4). With his three points, Scheifele became the Jets’ all-time leader in playoff points with 41.

“It’s obviously really cool,” Scheifele said of the record. “To do it in front of the fans tonight was pretty special. That was a fun game to be a part of.”

Jordan Kyrou gave the Blues a 3-2 lead with a power-play goal early in the second period, but Winnipeg’s top-line winger Alex Iafallo tied it at 9:18 of the third.

Robert Thomas also scored on the power play for St. Louis. Oskar Sundqvist added one at even strength and Justin Faulk had two assists.

Jordan Binnington stopped 21 shots for St. Louis, which grabbed the Western Conference’s final wild-card spot with a final-game victory.

St. Louis outshot the Jets 9-7 in the opening period, and dished out 32 hits to Winnipeg’s 14, as the teams hit the locker room tied at 2-2.

The Blues came out of the first intermission and used the power play for Kyrou’s goal at 1:13 and a 3-2 lead. It extended his season-ending point streak to four goals and two assists in four games.

“Overall, I thought it was a really good hockey game, but we are going to grow and we are going to get better,” Blues coach Jim Montgomery said. “That’s what we’re going to have to do. … We’ve got a lot of young guys playing in their first game in the Stanley Cup playoffs. That’s why I know we will get better.”

Winnipeg couldn’t capitalize on its early third-period man advantage but came close when Binnington denied Connor on a one-timer.

After Lowry’s goal, players paired up for some fighting with 19 seconds left after a regular-season series that Winnipeg won 3-1.

“That’s playoff hockey,” Hellebuyck said. “You have to play ’till the last minute, the last second. You know, it was a lot of fun, the guys were buzzing out there. I didn’t get a whole lot of action in the third. But it was really fun to watch and be a part of it.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Yanks’ Williams blows 4-run lead; ERA up to 9.00

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Yanks' Williams blows 4-run lead; ERA up to 9.00

TAMPA, Fla. — Three-and-a-half weeks into his New York Yankees career, Devin Williams doesn’t resemble the All-Star closer who dominated hitters with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Brandon Lowe tied the score with a two-run single in a four-run ninth inning off Williams, Jonathan Aranda hit a two-run homer in the 10th against Yoendrys Gomez, and the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Yankees 10-8 on Saturday to stop New York’s five-game winning streak.

“Yeah, four-run lead, you’d like to get in and get out,” Williams said. “Made some good pitches; made some bad ones. Not enough good ones today.”

Williams has a 9.00 ERA and has allowed runs in four of nine appearances. While he has four saves in four chances, Williams has walked seven in eight innings, and opponents have a .333 average against him.

“We got a long way to go,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said of Williams. “It’s a little bump here early, and he’s got all the equipment to get through it.”

Luke Weaver, who struck out two in a perfect eighth, could become an increasingly enticing option to replace Williams as closer. After thriving when he took over the closer role from Clay Holmes late last season, Weaver has not allowed a run in 11 innings over nine games this year and has given up just two hits while striking out 13 and walking five.

Acquired in December from Milwaukee for left-hander Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin, Williams can become a free agent after the season.

Williams converted 14 of 15 save chances with a 1.25 ERA for the Brewers last year, striking out 38 and walking 11 in 21⅔ innings. Diagnosed during 2024 spring training with two stress fractures in his back, he didn’t make his season debut until July 28.

Given an 8-4 lead, Williams allowed Jose Caballero‘s one-out single on a chopper as third baseman Oswaldo Cabrera made a high throw, for an error, then walked No. 9 batter Ben Rortvedt. Chandler Simpson hit an opposite-field RBI double to left for his first big league hit, Yandy Diaz hit a run-scoring infield single and Lowe singled to left.

“A lot of soft contact,” Boone said.

Williams allowed the hits to Caballero, Diaz and Lowe on his changeup, known as an airbender.

“Just the changeup to Lowe. I’d like to have that one back,” Williams said. “Tough luck on that double down the line, but aside from that, I thought I threw the ball pretty well.”

Williams generated just one swing-and-miss among his seven changeups.

“Maybe using it too much,” he said. “We’ll work on that.”

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