Sure, the 2023 season, postseason included, is fully in the books, wrapped up with the Texas Rangers‘ World Series Game 5 win on Nov. 1. But for us fantasy analysts, 2024 is already firmly in our sights. For this columnist, it began with the all-too-early rankings — both points-basedandrotisserie! — immediately following the regular season’s conclusion.
However, the real jump-start moment of the new season for many of us is the First Pitch Arizona conference, annually coinciding with the Arizona Fall League’s “Fall Stars Game” weekend, generally scheduled for the first weekend of November and directly before the beginning of the annual free agency period. Yes, this year’s event began less than 24 hours after the 2023 season concluded. Welcome to the year-round process that is fantasy baseball analysis.
For those who have never attended, First Pitch Arizona is a great opportunity to scout prospects and prospective 2024 rookies, reassess some of our findings from the most recent season and, most importantly, connect with many of the brightest minds (and players) in the industry. On the prospect front, be sure to check out Eric Karabell’s informative look at some of the Arizona Fall League’s prospect class, found here.
As far as major leaguers — and certain 2024 draft picks — are concerned, here are some of my weekend takeaways that were most relevant from a rankings perspective:
Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Angels: Among the most-asked-about players related to injuries, Ohtani should be ready to serve as a full-time hitter from the onset of 2023, but be unable to pitch again until the beginning of 2024. That said, we don’t at all know the specifics of his Sept. 19 elbow surgery, so it’s understandable that fantasy managers might have some doubt about his utility for our purposes come Opening Day.
My theory — shared at the conference — is that we’ll get further details, enough to confidently make our draft-day judgments, only once Ohtani comes to terms with his new team. That’s why I’m taking him at his word, that he will be a 162-games-available DH in 2024, and drafting him as a first-rounder (whereas he’s the No. 14 pick on average through the NFBC’s first 19 offseason drafts, with a low-end selection of 29th overall). At least, this is the case until we get more information.
Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B, Cincinnati Reds: Speaking of those early NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) ADP returns, De La Cruz’s are out of control, seeing him at No. 20 overall with high and low selections of 15th and 35th. To be clear, I love the guy and see a potentially spectacular career ahead for him. For 2024 alone, however, he’s much more rotisserie-angled, and more likely to set the single-season record for strikeouts than to return top-25 overall fantasy value.
Yainer Diaz, C, Houston Astros: There’s plenty of chatter about his prospective 2024 role, especially after general manager Dana Brown told KPRC-2 Houston recently that Diaz is “going to be the main guy” behind the plate. Diaz only once all season started as many as five games across any 10-game span, had subpar framing metrics (minus-4 runs above average, per Statcast) and the team’s highest ERA when catching (4.06), but he also had well-above-average raw power metrics (96th percentile expected slugging percentage, 79th percentile Barrel rate) that appeal to fantasy managers.
The fact that he has practically never seen a pitch he didn’t want to swing at — his 44% chase and 59% overall swing rates were second- and third-highest among hitters with at least as many as his 377 plate appearances — casts him a shaky points-league pick, but Diaz should carry top-10 positional value in rotisserie leagues as a starter.
Lucas Giolito, SP, Free Agent: After he became the first player in the modern era to surrender eight-plus runs in a game for three different teams — and he did so within a 49-day, 9-start span at that — it’s interesting to hear anyone make a “buy low” case for the free agent. Still, that was the case — granted, hardly a passionate one — during Saturday’s pitching spotlight panel, and it’s a fair point that he’s still only 29 years old and had seven 20-point fantasy performances in 2023 (the same number as Ohtani, Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta, for a reference point). He’ll be a pitcher on my spring watch list.
DL Hall, RP, Baltimore Orioles: While everyone gravitates to Yennier Cano as the Orioles’ prospective 2024 closer, Hall is the skilled alternative who meets the sleeper description. His trio of offerings (four-seam fastball, slider, changeup) each had at least a 30% whiff rate (percentage of hitters’ swings that were flat-out misses) and his 33% career minor league strikeout rate says he has the potential for more. Saturday’s pitching panel brought a universal opinion that Cano is a less-attractive fantasy closer than either Adbert Alzolay or Andres Munoz.
Cole Ragans, SP/RP, Kansas City Royals: He’s a tough pitcher in whom to completely believe, his 12-start outburst following his June 30 trade from the Texas Rangers (along with fellow prospect Roni Cabrera for Aroldis Chapman) displaying skills he had never before in eight professional seasons. Still, Ragans’ adjustments lent a good share of legitimacy to the performance, and the overall conference vibe was that it was very much legit.
Thanks in large part to his work with Tread Athletics during the 2022-23 offseason, Ragans added an astonishing 4.4 mph of average velocity to his four-seam fastball — at 96.5 mph, it was the game’s 11th-fastest (among pitchers with at least 10 starts), just behind Gerrit Cole — and exhibited more balance in his delivery, things that should carry over smoothly into 2024. Better questions regarding his repeat prospects should center on his being a two-time Tommy John surgery returnee (done back-to-back in 2018 and 2019) or that he totaled only 96 innings in 2023 and never more than 134 2/3 in any pro year.
On the topic of quality starts
One of the reasons I haven’t been nearly as passionate about the inclusion of quality starts in rotisserie scoring, or in the rotisserie 6×6 format which I previously wrote about annually, is the sharp decline in the category’s production.
My big pitch for 5×5 managers to migrate their leagues to 6×6 came in 2014, which was ultimately the year that saw the most quality starts in history. Last season, by comparison, there were 940 fewer quality starts than there were just nine seasons earlier, and the league’s overall QS rate has been beneath 40% for five years running — the five lowest such rates in a season since World War I (and be aware that it’s difficult to verify how much further back that might be true, since earned runs weren’t an official stat until 1912).
Simply put, there aren’t enough quality starts to go around to populate a 6×6 pool these days, and I’m increasingly in favor of a switch back to wins, at least in the absence of a more compelling category. Another point in wins’ favor: In 2013, 59% of all starts resulted in a quality start and 34% resulted in a win. Last season, 35% of all starts resulted in a quality start and 29% in a win.
Ken Holland, who won four Stanley Cups as an executive with the Detroit Red Wings, is expected to become the next general manager of the Los Angeles Kings, multiple NHL sources told ESPN on Monday, confirming a report.
Inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame as a builder in 2020, Holland replaces Rob Blake, the Kings’ general manager and vice president of hockey operations whose contract was not renewed after a fourth straight first-round playoff exit.
An announcement is expected later this week. Rod Pedersen, host of “The Rod Pedersen Show,” first reported the news.
Holland, 69, was the executive vice president and general manager of the Red Wings from 1997 through 2019, winning four Stanley Cups for the franchise. He was bumped upstairs in 2019 to senior vice president, clearing the way for Steve Yzerman to become the team’s general manager.
That promotion lasted only a month, as Holland left to take over the Edmonton Oilers as general manager and president of hockey operations. Powered by stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the team made the conference finals in 2022 and 2024, losing in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last year with a roster Holland constructed. Among his key acquisitions were forward Zach Hyman (free agent) and defensemen Mattias Ekholm (via trade with Nashville) and Philip Broberg (drafted eighth in 2019). The Oilers made the playoffs in all five seasons of Holland’s tenure.
Holland’s five-year contract with the Oilers expired on July 1, 2024. Edmonton eventually hired former Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman to replace him. Since then, Holland had been working as a consultant to the NHL’s hockey operations department.
Sources told ESPN that Holland had been considering a front office role with the New York Islanders, either as team president, general manager or both. Former Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin, a senior adviser for the Kings who many believed might be their next general manager, is in the mix for the Islanders’ openings.
Kings president Luc Robitaille played for Holland’s Red Wings from 2001-2003, winning his only Stanley Cup as a player in 2002. He will now reconnect with Holland, who will take over a Kings roster that features holdovers from their Stanley Cup wins in 2012 and 2014 (Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty), scorers in their prime (Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala), young players on the rise (Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke) and goalie Darcy Kuemper, who was a finalist for the Vezina Trophy this season.
But Los Angeles has failed to advance past the first round of the playoffs since 2014. The Kings have lost four straight first-round series to the Oilers — conveniently, Holland’s former team — including their six-game defeat this postseason.
Holland will now determine the fate of Jim Hiller, who finished his first season as Kings head coach after serving on an interim basis in 2023-24. Hiller was an assistant coach with the Red Wings for one season (2014-15) during Holland’s time in Detroit.
Edmonton Oilers goaltender Calvin Pickard is expected to miss the remainder of the Western Conference semifinal series against the Vegas Golden Knights due to an injury, according to a TSN report on Monday.
Later Monday, with veteran Stuart Skinner in net, the Oilers defeated the Golden Knights, 3-0, in Game 4, securing a 3-1 series lead. Skinner made 23 saves in the victory.
Pickard has won all six starts in the net for the Oilers during this postseason run. After Edmonton lost the first two games against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round, coach Kris Knoblauch replaced Skinner, the team’s regular-season starter, with Pickard. The 33-year-old career backup posted wins in the next four games to help the Oilers oust the Kings and then earned victories in the first two games of the second round in Las Vegas.
Golden Knights forward Tomas Hertl fell into Pickard’s left leg during the Oilers’ 5-4 overtime triumph on May 8. The Moncton, New Brunswick, native finished the game but has not practiced since. With Skinner back in the net, host Edmonton lost 4-3 in Game 3, as Vegas forward Reilly Smith scored with 0.4 seconds remaining.
TSN reported “it will probably be at least a week” before Pickard could return, and during Game 4 on Monday night, Olivier Rodrigue was the backup netminder on the bench. Rodrigue, 24, played in just two games for Edmonton in his first NHL season.
Prior to Monday’s shutout, Skinner, who starred during the Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final last spring, had allowed 15 goals in just 168 minutes of playing time this postseason and owns a lowly save percentage of .817. During the regular season, Skinner went 26-18-4, with a 2.81 goals-against average and an .896 save percentage.
Since falling down 2-0 to the Kings, the Oilers have won seven of eight postseason games. Game 5 is back in Las Vegas on Wednesday night.
Information from Field Level Media was used in this report.
RALEIGH, N..C. — The Carolina Hurricanes twice found their two-goal margin halved in the third period of their latest playoff game with the Washington Capitals.
Each time they found a prompt response.
And that pushed the Hurricanes to within a win of the Eastern Conference finals for the second time in three seasons.
Taylor Hall scored on a breakaway chance roughly three minutes after the Washington Capitals scored their first goal, then Sean Walker added one minutes after NHL all-time goals leader Alex Ovechkin struck with a 5-on-3 one-timer. Those kept the Hurricanes in control on the way to a 5-2 win Monday night, securing a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven second-round series.
“We get an individual effort, and that’s really what those were, good plays,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said. “But burying it, finishing your chances at a crucial time in the game. … Both of those goals were huge for us.”
Both Hall and Walker finished with two points, with Walker getting the second assist on Hall’s score and Hall returning the favor by springing Walker’s surge up the ice on the way to his first career postseason goal. But the timing of the goals stood out, with each blunting the momentum of a Washington team that had been shutout for five straight periods going back to Saturday’s 4-0 loss in Game 3.
Carolina carried a 2-0 lead into the third before Jakob Chychrun beat Frederik Andersen on a feed from Matt Roy after Roy had denied Carolina’s chance to clear the zone. That score came at the 5:18 mark of the third to add a jolt of tension rippling through the Lenovo Center after Carolina had kept a firm grip on the game to that point.
But Hall — acquired in January in the blockbuster deal that brought in Mikko Rantanen as the headliner — made a veteran read to blunt that momentum.
After being knocked to the ice in the offensive zone, Hall was getting up as the Capitals pushed the puck toward the other end. But as Hall got to center ice, he was alone — Washington coach Spencer Carbery said the defense lost track of Hall behind the forecheck and were too deep in the zone — and the Hurricanes were on the verge of collecting the puck as it went around the end wall.
So Hall turned in back toward the blue line, straddling it long enough to stay onside until Jack Roslovic‘s long pass arrived to spring the breakaway chance.
“Yeah, everyone’s asking me if I was cheating for offense,” Hall said, adding; “I thought it was just something to try.”
Hall skated in and beat Logan Thompson to the glove side at the 8:24 mark, pushing the margin back to 3-1.
“It’s a read, we had possession of the puck,” Brind’Amour said. “So that’s actually a good play by him.”
The Capitals again kept the pressure on with Ovechkin’s blast past Andersen on a two-man advantage at the 12:14 mark, dampening the rowdy zeal in Carolina’s home arena. But that’s when Hall and Walker teamed up for the goal that would reassert control.
It started on a puck battle and the unusual sight of Washington’s Rasmus Sandin skating in to get the puck from Walker, only to get the blade of his stick stuck in a gap along the boards. Walker got to his feet as Hall collected the puck, then flipped a pass to Walker as he charged up the left side.
Walker hesitated to cut inside Roslovic toward the slot and beat Thompson at the 16:45 mark, pushing the lead back to 4-2 in what became a backbreaking score.
“I feel like they were backchecking really hard, so I kind of just read that,” Walker said. “Tried to be patient. Once I stepped inside, I felt like I had a good lane so I shot it, and just happy it went in.”
Ovechkin’s blast got the NHL’s career goals leader on the scoresheet for the first time this series. Thompson finished with 32 saves.
“We’re giving ourselves some opportunities, we’re just not executing, making the play, whatever you want to call it,” Washington coach Spencer Carbery said. “And making some mistakes — and they’re capitalizing.”
To that point, the Eastern Conference’s top seed got a quick start after a Game 3 shutout, starting with Connor McMichael getting a 1-on-1 chance on Andersen in the opening minute. Aliaksei Protas followed by ringing the right post shortly after.
Washington also managed only one shot on goal during a 4-minute power play, the first 3½ minutes of those coming to close the first period.
“Their penalty kill is excellent, best in the league, has been for the last, whatever, five years call it,” Carbery said. “But it can’t look like that. It cannot look like that.”
Andrei Svechnikov added the empty-net clincher less than a minute later to deny Washington’s bid to retake home-ice advantage, the capper to Carolina’s steady response amid growing third-period danger.
“I think that’s something that’s really important, especially this time of year,” Walker said. “You’ve got to answer when teams are making their push.”
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.