Ohio State-Michigan and the 20 most anticipated games in college football history
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Accusations of spying. Counter-accusations of hiring private investigators. Counter-counter-accusations of … I don’t know … something. Michigan’s recent Spygate adventure, which got Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh suspended for three games, has significantly ramped up what was obviously the most hostile and important game of the 2023 college football season — Ohio State at Michigan. The tension and intensity that followed a complete reversal in rivalry dynamics two years ago — when Michigan suddenly became the rivalry bully, winning two games by a combined 87-50 after losing 15 of the previous 16 — has been amplified by off-the-field shenanigans and message board warfare.
The fact that Harbaugh won’t be on the sideline adds an extra story line to a game that doesn’t need anything else. This was always going to be the biggest game of the season. In the more than two decades between 1997 and 2021, the Wolverines and Buckeyes met as mutual top-five teams just three times. They’re now doing it for the third year in a row. Ohio State heads into the game ranked second in the AP poll and was No. 2 in the most recent CFP rankings; Michigan is third in both. Michigan is first in SP+, Ohio State first in FPI. The winner is nearly assured of a spot in the College Football Playoff, and the loser will need lots of good luck to get there.
For about 117 different reasons, this one’s huge. It’s easily the most highly anticipated game of a 2023 season that featured quite a few big headliners. Is it one of the most anticipated games ever? To gauge that, we have to compare it to the best of the best.
College football has been producing high-stakes, battle-of-the-century type games since the start of its existence. As the hype around the sport itself grew, starting in the late-1920s and 1930s, the hype around its biggest games did, too. Going decade by decade, let’s look at some of the regular-season college football games that had the highest stakes, the most buildup and the most on the line. Let’s set the bar that Michigan-Ohio State has to clear. And let’s see how frequently these games actually live up to the billing. Here are 20 of the most anticipated games in college football history.
The background: Ohio State had built mighty Ohio Stadium in the 1920s and, by the mid-1930s, had built the mighty team to fill it. Coming off of a 7-1 season, the Buckeyes hosted college football’s marquee program, a Notre Dame team that was beginning to rebound after falling into a relative funk following Knute Rockne’s death. The Irish were 6-0, the Buckeyes 4-0; in the year before the AP poll came into existence, these teams might have been No. 1 and No. 2.
The game: It lived up to hype and then some. Ohio State took a 13-0 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Irish charged back. They scored to make it 13-12 in the final minutes, and while the Buckeyes recovered an onside kick, Notre Dame recovered a fumble near midfield. Andy Pliney bulled his way inside the Ohio State 20, suffering a career-ending injury in the process, then Bill Shakespeare threw a game-winning touchdown pass to Wayne Millner for an all-time comeback win.
1943: No. 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 14, No. 2 Iowa Pre-Flight Seahawks 13
The background: College football continued during World War II, but under relatively unique circumstances. A lot of programs fielded mainly freshman teams with upperclassmen enlisted, and many of the enlisted played on teams like Great Lakes Navy or any number of Pre-Flight teams in different states. The best of the wartime squads was the 1943 Iowa Pre-Flight team led by Missouri coach Don Faurot. They were 8-0 with a chance at a national title when they visited South Bend to face a loaded Notre Dame team. Thanks to an affiliation with the Navy, the Irish hadn’t suffered much roster drain. The 1943 team, in fact, featured both the eventual 1943 Heisman winner (Angelo Bertelli) and the 1947 winner (Johnny Lujack). This was a winner-take-all matchup.
The game: In front of 45,000, Faurot’s Seahawks led 7-0 at halftime. With the score 7-7, a Lujack fumble set up a Dick Burk score. Iowa missed the PAT. But however, Notre Dame took a late 14-13 lead that held up after a missed field goal and a late fourth-down stop.
1946: No. 1 Army Black Knights 0, No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0
The background: Thanks again to wartime rosters and loosened eligibility rules, Army, Navy and Notre Dame fielded the best teams in the country in 1945. Army might have had the best team ever, though, and beat the Midshipmen and Irish by a combined 80-13. A year later, the Cadets still had back-to-back Heisman winners Doc Blanchard and Glenn Davis, but Notre Dame was ready for the challenge. Every major sportswriter in the country was among the capacity crowd of 74,121 at Yankee Stadium.
The game: Notre Dame coach Frank Leahy told the media he was predicting a 27-14 Army win. Whether that was earnest or a motivation tactic for his team, his projection was pretty far off the mark. Rainy conditions (and a Lujack injury) turned this into a rock fight — the teams combined for 10 turnovers and six turnovers on downs, and the tie ended up a win for Notre Dame: They would take the No. 1 spot in the final polls after a blowout of No. 6 USC.
The background: The 1950s saw regional powers sprout up, from Michigan State early to Oklahoma, during its famous 47-game winning streak, in the middle of the decade. But with interconference play limited by segregation, we didn’t get all that many marquee matchups. That changed in 1959, when the two best teams in the South peaked around the same time. LSU won the 1958 national title thanks in part to coach Paul Dietzel’s brilliant, multiplatoon system, but by 1959 John Vaught’s Rebels were ready to move from top-15 program to top-two. A chaotic, Halloween night crowd of 67,500 awaited in Baton Rouge.
The game: The Rebels might have had the best team in the country, but LSU had Billy Cannon, who won the Heisman that year. Ole Miss had chances but managed just a field goal before Cannon fielded a fourth-quarter punt at his 11.
0:41
Cannon’s Halloween run
GameDay 100: Billy Cannon’s punt return for a touchdown gave LSU a late victory over Ole Miss.
Ole Miss’ last-gasp drive came up 1 yard short. The Tigers survived in an absolute classic.
1966: No. 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10, No. 2 Michigan State Spartans 10
The background: They had 25 All-Americans and 10 future NFL first-round draft picks between them. Four Michigan State players would go in the top 8 of the 1967 NFL/AFL draft. Notre Dame had outscored eight opponents by a combined 301-28. The teams met in late-November in front of 80,011 fans and a national TV audience of 33 million. This might have been the Game of the Century … of the Century.
The game: Michigan State led 10-7 at halftime, but the Irish tied the score early in the fourth quarter despite an injury to quarterback Terry Hanratty. They got the ball one last time deep in their territory, but coach Ara Parseghian played things safe to avoid potential disaster, and they didn’t advance the ball far. Sports Illustrated’s Dan Jenkins, maybe the greatest college football writer ever, dryly raked Parseghian over the coals — “Old Notre Dame will tie over all. Sing it out, guys.” — but the pragmatism paid off when the Irish smoked USC and took the national title over MSU and unbeaten Alabama.
1967: No. 4 USC Trojans 21, No. 1 UCLA Bruins 20
The background: Led by new starting running back O.J. Simpson, USC bounced back from a 7-4 season in 1966 and, freshly named the No. 1 team in the country, stomped Notre Dame in South Bend. A shock loss to Oregon State dropped the Trojans to fourth overall and promoted UCLA, fresh off of a 48-0 humiliation of Washington, to No. 1. Bruins quarterback Gary Beban would beat out Simpson for the Heisman that year. This was the biggest game ever between two of the West’s defining programs.
The game: Early in the fourth quarter, Beban, battling a rib injury but on his way to 301 passing yards, connected with Dave Nuttall to give UCLA the lead, but a missed PAT made it only 20-14. That would loom large when Simpson bolted 64 yards for one of the sport’s most famous touchdowns.
It was a title-winning run. The Trojans would knock out Indiana in the Rose Bowl and finish No. 1.
The background: In terms of hype and anticipation, it’s hard to top “the president announces he’s attending the game and will declare the winner the national champion.” But Richard Nixon did just that (to the dismay of Joe Paterno and unbeaten Penn State). Billy Graham gave the pregame invocation. A record television audience watched at home. It was college football’s 100th birthday, and Fayetteville was the center of the universe.
The game: Arkansas took a 14-0 lead early in the third quarter, but two bold (and analytics-friendly!) decisions by Texas coach Darrell Royal turned the game. First, after a James Street touchdown run, Royal elected to go for two. They converted, making it 14-8. And after a Danny Lester interception prevented Arkansas from putting the game away, Royal elected to go for it on fourth-and-3 in Texas territory with about five minutes left. Street and Randy Peschel connected for 44 yards, Jim Bertelsen scored, Happy Feller made the go-ahead PAT and Tom Campbell made the game-clinching interception in the final minute. Texas was the champ.
The background: Nebraska and OU were clearly the two best teams in the country in 1971, outscoring 23 other opponents by an average of 29 points. The Sooners had the best offense in the country, and the Cornhuskers had the best defense. A packed house in Norman, and 55 million TV viewers at home, took this one in.
The game: One of the most famous plays in college football history — Johnny Rodgers’ epic 72-yard punt return — happened just four minutes into the game, and both teams tried their hardest to one-up that moment for the next 56 minutes.
First, the return:
0:54
Rodgers’ return TD in ‘Game of the Century’
On Nov. 25, 1971, Johnny Rodgers takes the punt, dodges several would-be tacklers and rolls 72 yards for a Nebraska TD.
That would pace an early 14-3 Nebraska lead, but OU charged back to steal a 17-14 advantage at the break. Then came the same dance: NU scores twice to go up 11, and OU scores twice to go up three. But a 33-yard run by NU quarterback Jerry Tagge set up Jeff Kinney’s game-winning touchdown with 1:38 left. Two sacks finished off the win.
1973: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes 10, No. 4 Michigan Wolverines 10
The background: The fifth game in what would be known as the Ten Year War between Woody Hayes’ Ohio State and Bo Schembechler’s Michigan was the closest and most bitter of them all. The teams entered the game a combined 19-0, and in front of 105,223 fans, then an NCAA record, Ohio State set the tone before kickoff, attempting to tear down the M Club banner Michigan’s players ran under.
The game: Somehow the game topped that buildup. Ohio State took command with a 10-0 halftime lead, but Dennis Franklin’s 10-yard, fourth-down score tied it in the fourth quarter. Franklin was hit and injured on a late drive, but the Wolverines still got opportunities to try a couple of long field goals. Mike Lantry barely missed them both, from 58 and 45 yards, and after the tie, with Franklin’s injury looming large, Big Ten athletic directors voted for Ohio State to attend the Rose Bowl. Schembechler never got over it.
1987: No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners 17, No. 1 Nebraska Cornhuskers 7
The background: By the late-1980s, college football’s balance of power was starting to shift south, toward Miami and Florida State. But while Miami would eventually win the national title in 1987, Barry Switzer’s Sooners and Tom Osborne’s Cornhuskers were the shining lights late in the season. They were a combined 19-0 and ranked 1-2 when OU trekked up to Lincoln on Nov. 21. But with quarterback Jamelle Holieway and fullback Lydell Carr both injured — and with OU coming off of a narrow 17-13 win over Missouri — the Sooners looked vulnerable. After so many close calls, this was another golden opportunity for NU to win Osborne a national title.
The game: OU defensive end Darrell Reed summed it up to the media after the game: “We played a basic offense and a basic defense, and they got a basic butt-kicking.” Fill-in QB Charles Thompson rushed for 126 yards, two other Sooners backs hit triple digits, and two third-quarter scores, including a 65-yard burst from Patrick Collins, charged a 17-7 Sooner win.
1988: No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 31, No. 1 Miami Hurricanes 30
The background: Defending national champion Miami headed up to South Bend to face the first elite Notre Dame team since the 1970s. “Catholics vs. Convicts.” A fight in the tunnel before the game. It was the stuff 30-for-30s were made for https://www.espn.com/watch/player/_/id/3216512.
The game: It was also the stuff instant replay was made for. With Miami down 31-24 and facing a fourth-and-7 midway through the fourth quarter, an apparent Cleveland Gary touchdown was ruled a fumble on the field, and Notre Dame recovered. Then, with under a minute left, Miami’s Andre Brown was given a touchdown even though replay showed he never controlled the pass. But all the controversy led to a classic ending: Pat Terrell breaking up Steve Walsh’s 2-point pass attempt.
#OnThisDay, 3️⃣0️⃣ years ago in 1988, @NDFootball defeated No. 1 Miami at Notre Dame Stadium.
Relive this iconic moment in Irish history as Pat Terrell and Steve Belles talk about the play that changed everything.#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/A8Dtqj9HPn
— The Fighting Irish (@FightingIrish) October 15, 2018
The Irish held on and won the national title 2½ months later.
1989: No. 2 Colorado Buffaloes 27, No. 3 Nebraska Cornhuskers 21
The background: The “rising upstart has to conquer a blueblood to get all the way to the top” genre of big game is one of my personal favorites. The buzz it can create is almost unparalleled. We needed one on this list, and the Colorado-Nebraska rivalry of the late-1980s might have been the best example of it. (Another candidate: Kansas State-Nebraska a decade later.) Bill McCartney had slowly built a powerhouse in Boulder and had pulled a shocking upset to get the Huskers’ attention in 1986, but now the 8-0 Buffaloes harbored national title hopes, and 8-0 NU stood in the way.
The game: The teams traded big-play touchdowns early (including the greatest “option pitch many yards downfield” maneuver you’ll ever see), and CU took a 24-14 lead after a controversial pass interference call in the third quarter. It was 27-21 when CU made a fourth-down stop, then batted down a Hail Mary attempt to prevail.
The background: This was the most hyped game of the most hyped rivalry in the sport at the turn of the 1990s. The Noles began 1991 at No. 1 after four straight top-five finishes, and they were 10-0 with two wins over top-10 teams (Michigan and Syracuse) by a combined 52 points. But other than a close call against Penn State, the 8-0 Hurricanes had been equally dominant. The New York Times called this the most anticipated game since 1971 NU-OU.
The game: Miami went ahead early, but FSU blanked the Canes for the next three quarters. The Noles settled for a number of field goals while taking a 16-7 lead, and Miami cut the lead to 16-10 in the fourth quarter. A 1-yard plunge by fullback Larry Jones made it 17-16 Miami with three minutes left, but after a fourth-down conversion and a pass interference penalty, FSU got into field goal range.
0:58
Wide Right I
On Nov. 16, 1991, Florida State kicker Gerry Thomas missed a potential go-ahead 34-yard field goal attempt, as the No. 1 Seminoles fell to the No. 2 Hurricanes.
It became Wide Right I.
1993: No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 31, No. 1 Florida State Seminoles 24
The background: After also losing via Wide Right II in 1992, FSU finally cleared the Miami hurdle in 1993, and Bobby Bowden seemed poised to finally win his first ring. But unbeaten Notre Dame was ready to win its second title in six years. The unbeaten Irish hosted the top-ranked Noles in their second-to-last regular-season game. It was a big enough game that, for the first time ever, ESPN’s “College GameDay” was on location for the proceedings. (“GameDay” has made just a few more trips since then.)
The game: FSU scored early, but Notre Dame went on a 24-0 run to take a commanding lead into the final 20 minutes. FSU charged back, cutting the lead to 31-24 and getting the ball back in the closing seconds. But on the final play of the game, Shawn Wooden broke up a Charlie Ward pass at the goal line, and the Irish moved to No. 1…
…until the very next week, when they were upset by Boston College. FSU won out and took the national title.
1996: No. 2 Florida State Seminoles 24, No. 1 Florida Gators 21
The background: With Miami fading, Bowden found a new chief rival within the state. Steve Spurrier’s ascendant Gators had enjoyed five straight top-10 finishes and played for the national title the year before, falling to Nebraska. The Noles and Gators were a combined 20-0 and occupied the top two spots in the polls heading into Thanksgiving weekend. The winner was guaranteed a shot at the national title. Huge. Very huge.
The game: “If we didn’t have the best defense in the country,” Bowden said after the game, “we don’t win.” FSU knocked eventual Heisman winner Danny Wuerffel around all game (legally and illegally) and limited him to 23-for-48 passing with three picks. The Seminoles surged to an early 17-0 lead, and it just barely held up. Florida’s Bart Edmiston missed a late field goal wide right, and FSU survived.
Florida didn’t have to wait long for revenge, however. The two teams were paired in the Sugar Bowl, and the Gators blew out the Noles to secure their first title.
2001: No. 3 Nebraska Cornhuskers 20, No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners 10
The background: OU disappeared into the wilderness for part of the 1990s, and Oklahoma-Nebraska lost some luster. But when Bob Stoops’ Sooners surged back into national prominence, so did this rivalry. OU won a surprise national title in 2000, and the Sooners had won 20 games in a row when they traveled to Lincoln. NU, meanwhile, had soon-to-be Heisman winner Eric Crouch and a typically dominant Blackshirts defense.
The game: Nothing came easily for either offense in this one. The Sooners outgained the Huskers but were undone by negative plays and turnovers, and the score was 13-10 when Nebraska opened things up with some fourth-quarter trickeration.
Hard to believe it has already been 15 years… Thanks #HuskerNation for making this moment so special! #GBR #Black41FlashReverse pic.twitter.com/hePzCpRThX
— Eric Crouch (@croucheric) October 27, 2016
Crouch’s long catch and run gave Nebraska a comfortable lead in an uncomfortable game, and despite a late-season loss to Colorado the Huskers would go on to play for the national title. They were shellacked by Miami, however, and haven’t been back to the promised land since.
2006: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes 42, No. 2 Michigan Wolverines 39
The background: When The Game is big, it just feels like the biggest thing in sports, and in 2006 the Buckeyes and Wolverines had their first ever 1-versus-2 matchup. The teams were absolutely loaded, boasting six consensus All-Americans between them. And on top of everything else, Bo Schembechler died the day before the game, creating an almost unfathomable layer of emotion around the proceedings. The Game drew 105,708 in Columbus and boasted the highest regular-season TV ratings since 1993 FSU-Notre Dame.
The game: These two defenses were outstanding, but the offenses were even better. Michigan scored early, but a 21-0 run helped to give the Buckeyes a 14-point halftime lead. The Wolverines kept charging, but Ohio State kept responding. When Michigan cut the lead to 28-24, Antonio Pittman scored on a 56-yard run. When U-M cut it to 35-31, Brian Robiskie scored. Michigan scored one last time, but Ted Ginn Jr. recovered an onside kick, and the top-ranked Buckeyes prevailed. They couldn’t match these emotional heights in the BCS championship, however, getting blown out by No. 2 Florida.
The background: At the turn of the 2010s, the college football world belonged to the Southeastern Conference. An SEC team won every title from 2006-12 as part of a larger run of 14 titles in the past 20 years. And you could say that the SEC’s aura was never stronger than it was for this game, which pitted two teams with 49 future pros in front of 101,821 and CBS’ largest regular-season TV audience in 22 years.
The game: Over time, an impression has formed that this was an unwatchable rock fight. Absolutely not. The rematch, a dire 21-0 Bama win in the BCS championship, was, and the ratings for that one were poor enough that it finally got us a playoff. But despite the low score, the original meeting was a classic. Alabama constantly threatened on offense, but with help from four missed field goals (OK, that part wasn’t great), LSU constantly held the Tide at bay before winning — via field goal, naturally — in OT. A classic of its own kind.
2016: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 30, No. 3 Michigan Wolverines 27
The background: Jim Harbaugh has been Michigan’s coach for nine years, but he’s packed in about three decades’ worth of plots and story arcs. Before a seven-year losing streak to Ohio State really took root, before the back-to-back CFP appearances flipped his reputation 180 degrees, and before Spygate muddied the waters all over again, he was a second-year head coach achieving huge things at his alma mater. The Wolverines hadn’t been in the top 10 in nine seasons before they began 2016 at 10-1, and a win over Ohio State would get them to within one game of a first CFP appearance.
The game: It came down to The Spot.
1:58
Ohio State extends game on fourth-down gain
J.T. Barrett runs for a 1-yard gain to the Michigan 15 for a first down.
Michigan’s 17-7 third-quarter lead almost held up, but the Buckeyes sent the game to overtime with a last-second field goal and won it when, after this spot went the Buckeyes way, Curtis Samuel scored from 15 yards out.
2019: No. 1 LSU Tigers 46, No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide 41
The background: Heading into 2019, Alabama and Clemson had split the past four national titles, playing four times in the CFP in the process. Oklahoma was typically good to make a brief appearance too. We needed a little bit of variety. Ed Orgeron’s LSU Tigers obliged. Fielding one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen, they beat three top-10 teams during an 8-0 start, but surely beating Mighty Bama in Tuscaloosa was too much to ask, right? Another crowd of 101,821 plus CBS’ biggest regular-season audience since the 2011 LSU-Bama game, sure wanted to find out.
The game: All the stars came out to play. Joe Burrow threw three touchdown passes and Tua Tagovailoa threw four. LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored four times, and Bama’s Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith each scored two. Fourteen points in 20 seconds allowed LSU to take a 33-13 halftime lead, but Bama cut it to one score three separate times in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t over until Justin Jefferson recovered an onside kick with 1:21 left.
LSU’s monotony-breaking continued as the Tigers rolled to 15-0 and won the national title.
You know it as soon as the college football schedule drops. The game that’s circled, the player you love to hate, the rival coach who seems to especially delight in destroying your team’s season.
We’re getting into the dog days of summer, with the only relief being the crisp autumn days of the college football season are rapidly approaching. But that means the enemies are lining up at the gates.
Today, we’re doing recon on where each post-spring top 25 team stands and who stands in their way. These are each teams’ potential future villains, the coaches, players and teams that have the chance to make the whole season go south. — Dave Wilson
1. Penn State: Ryan Day
Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been unable to get over the hump against Ohio State, especially since Day took over in Columbus. The Nittany Lions have dropped six straight to Day, culminating with last year’s defeat, as fourth-ranked Ohio State rallied to topple the third-ranked Nittany Lions in State College 20-13. This season, Day will have a new starting quarterback and inexperience on both sides of the ball coming off last year’s national championship. Penn State will counter with one of the most experienced teams in the country, headlined by veteran quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Franklin even hired away Day’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. The Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Nov. 1 in a showdown that figures to carry major playoff implications. — Jake Trotter
Clemson’s arch enemy for this season is obvious: Sellers. The Tigers watched the South Carolina quarterback dodge defenders, break tackles and keep one play after another alive last season in a stunning Gamecocks win that nearly derailed Clemson’s season. Clemson will be looking for revenge, of course, but new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be more focused on finding answers for the elusive Sellers. There are lofty expectations at Clemson this season, and the Tigers don’t necessarily need a win over South Carolina to achieve them, but nobody will sleep soundly in the state if the 2025 defense coughs up another win to its biggest rival. — David Hale
3. Texas: Oklahoma
In Week 1, the Longhorns get a rubber match against an Ohio State team that eliminated Texas from the playoff last season, but the results of this game leave a lot of runway for either team to get back into this year’s postseason. Yet, there is no bigger test every year for Texas than Oklahoma in Dallas. This one’s a bit of a mystery, with the Sooners bringing in new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, who played high school football in the Dallas area, from Washington State. The new-look Sooners could either be a launching point or a big speed bump in the SEC schedule for a Longhorns team with national championship aspirations. — Dave Wilson
4. Georgia: Alabama
The last coach Georgia fans ever wanted to see on the other sideline is doing television. Nick Saban was 5-1 against Kirby Smart, but even with Saban in his first year of retirement last season, Alabama still beat Georgia in a wild 41-34 game in Tuscaloosa the final weekend of September. Georgia has lost nine of the past 10 games in the series and hasn’t beaten Alabama in the regular season since 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, when the Mark Richt-coached Bulldogs won 26-23 in overtime. Georgia has vaulted to elite status under Smart, but a second straight loss to DeBoer — especially with this year’s game being played in Athens — wouldn’t sit well with anybody in Athens. — Chris Low
5. Ohio State: Sherrone Moore
Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has become a problem for the Buckeyes. He might not wear the villain outfit quite as well as predecessor Jim Harbaugh did, but Moore’s rise in coaching — as Wolverines offensive line coach, offensive coordinator and now head coach — has coincided with Ohio State’s longest losing streak (four games) to its archrival since 1991. Moore served as acting head coach during Harbaugh’s Big Ten-imposed suspension in 2023, as Michigan punched its ticket to the Big Ten championship game. He then earned the permanent role and pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in the history of The Game in November in Columbus. The story of Moore’s coaching career at Michigan is really just beginning, but he has already demonstrated his ability to win the biggest games. — Adam Rittenberg
6. LSU: Daytime home games
LSU fans have been known to curse day games, especially in the sweltering September heat. It’s at night when Tiger Stadium (and typically LSU’s football team) shines. In 2025, the only SEC home game that LSU will definitely play at night is the league opener against Florida on Sept. 13. Home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M fall into the “flex” window, meaning they could start as early as 3:30 p.m. ET or as late as 8 p.m. ET. Since 2000, LSU is 112-15 in Saturday night home games at Tiger Stadium. Brian Kelly has faced just two nationally ranked SEC opponents in day games at Tiger Stadium and is 1-1. — Low
7. Notre Dame: Miami
No Notre Dame players were alive for the 1988 clash with Miami, and Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman was only 2 years old. But longtime Domers will always view the U as a true villain, and new Miami quarterback Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, sparks a range of reactions. Notre Dame scored a signature win in the CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia squad that had lost Beck to injury. When healthy, Beck is talented enough to villainize a Notre Dame defense replacing standouts Xavier Watts, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and others and appearing in its first game under new coordinator Chris Ash. Early season games are one of the only knocks against Freeman, who has dropped at least one September game in each of his three seasons as Irish coach. Notre Dame needs a strong start with its two most talented opponents — Miami and Texas A&M — leading off the schedule. — Rittenberg
8. Oregon: Ohio State
Is it too simple to say Ohio State? Maybe just Jeremiah Smith after he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl drubbing that the Buckeyes put on the Ducks to end their undefeated season? The good news for Dan Lanning & Co. (or bad depending on how you look at it) is that Oregon will not face Ohio State in the regular season this season and a rematch could only occur in the Big Ten title game or in the College Football Playoff. Penn State enters the fray this season as a much-hyped conference contender that the Ducks will have to face and yet it feels like Oregon and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop for the conference and are likely to continue seeing each other on the sport’s biggest stages. — Paolo Uggetti
9. Alabama: Vanderbilt
Remember when Saban won 100 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest such streak in the AP poll era? Now, all of a sudden, the Crimson Tide are 2-3 against their past five unranked foes, a stretch that started with a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt last season, which came only a week after DeBoer beat No. 2-ranked Georgia in his SEC opener as Alabama’s head coach. It was the first time Alabama had lost to Vanderbilt since 1984. Alabama will get its shot at payback this season on Oct. 4 when Vanderbilt visits Bryant-Denny Stadium. The loss to Vanderbilt a year ago ignited what was the first three-loss regular season for Alabama since 2010. Judging by some of the comments from Alabama players this offseason, nobody will need to remind the Tide when the Commodores are coming to town. — Low
10. BYU: Utah
It’s always Utah. The “Holy War” frequently manages to surprise us. A year ago, BYU was coming off a 5-7 season and Utah was considered the Big 12 favorite. This time, we have a full reversal: The Utes are the ones coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and the Cougars are ranked the highest of any Big 12 team on this list. (Granted, this ranking doesn’t account for the sudden uncertainty BYU is dealing with at the QB position.) We’ll already have a decent idea of BYU’s capabilities by the time Utah visits Provo in Week 8, but the Holy War could serve as a Big 12 title elimination game, and it will definitely impact the tenor of the season for both teams. It always does. — Connelly
Purdue didn’t generate many highlights in 2024, but it gave Illinois a major scare at Memorial Stadium, erasing a 24-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49. Among the Boilermakers’ stars that day was tight end Max Klare, who recorded his first 100-yard receiving performance, finishing with 133 yards on six catches. Klare, like most of Purdue’s best players, transferred following the team’s coaching change. He landed at Ohio State, which will visit Memorial Stadium on Oct. 11. Illinois certainly will be aware of Klare but also must contain Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith and several other standout wide receivers, if it wants any chance at knocking off the defending national champions. — Rittenberg
12. Arizona State: Regression
Arizona State had one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of 2024 and returns far more of last year’s production than most. The Sun Devils appear primed for a run at a repeat Big 12 title. The problem: No one repeats in the Big 12. ASU’s biggest archrival could simply be regression to the mean. Among current members, the past six teams to reach the Big 12 championship before 2024 — 2020 Iowa State, 2021 Baylor, 2021 Oklahoma State, 2022 Kansas State, 2022 TCU and 2023 Oklahoma State — went a combined 28-9 in one-score finishes during their title runs. The following seasons, they went a combined 9-22 in such games. ASU went 6-2 in one-score finishes last season. It’s really hard to do that twice in a row, and in the Big 12 it appears impossible. — Connelly
13. South Carolina: LSU
South Carolina has its share of hated rivals — Georgia, Clemson, anyone else who plays “Sandstorm” during timeouts — but as the Gamecocks look to make a playoff run in 2025, enemy No. 1 might well be LSU. The Bayou Bengals have dominated South Carolina over the years, holding an 18-2 all-time record and winning eight straight matchups dating to 1995. More recently, LSU escaped Columbia with a 36-33 win last season in which the Gamecocks blew a four-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play. That loss ultimately cost South Carolina a playoff bid, but the Gamecocks feel certain they’re a far better team than they were then. If they can exact some revenge this time, it’ll be a big step toward reaching those lofty goals. — Hale
14. Iowa State: Kansas State
There’s no such thing as a Week 0 elimination game, but we get the closest thing to it in Dublin to start the 2025 season. The annual (for now) Farmageddon battle between ISU and Kansas State will take place in particularly green pastures this time, and it will pit two preseason top 20 teams with major Big 12 title hopes. Last year, the Cyclones’ defense played a perfect fourth quarter against the Wildcats, allowing just one yard in 12 snaps to win 29-21 and advance to the conference title game. This time, someone will be 0-1 in conference play before Week 1 even arrives. This is about as big a season opener as you could hope for. — Connelly
15. SMU: TCU
SMU was 3-17 against TCU coaches in the Dennis Franchione/Gary Patterson era, then Sonny Dykes won two straight against the Frogs in Dallas. Once he defected for the purple pastures of Fort Worth, he then won his first two against the Mustangs. Last year, however, SMU got its revenge in a 66-42 pummeling of TCU in a game in which Dykes was ejected. This year, the two teams, which have met 103 times, are scheduled for their last Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future. This one will have some heat. — Wilson
16. Texas Tech: Baylor
Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire got his start in college coaching at Baylor under Matt Rhule and was promoted under Dave Aranda. He left in midseason in 2021 when he got the Tech job. While trying to right the ship in Lubbock, he’s gone 1-2 against Aranda, including a 59-35 home loss last season. Since Mike Leach was fired, the Red Raiders are 5-10 against the Bears, a team they’ll need to eclipse with their big ambitions to sit atop the Big 12. — Wilson
17. Indiana: UCLA
Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did a great job of retaining players and coaches from a 2024 team that won a school-record 11 games and reached the CFP. But two who got away — a coach and a player — landed with UCLA, which visits Indiana on Oct. 25. New Bruins offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri coached Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke last year and had spent the previous three seasons on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison. He might know the secrets to attacking Indiana’s defense. Defensive back Jamier Johnson transferred from Indiana to UCLA after recording 35 tackles and an interception last fall for the Hoosiers. Johnson, who began his college career at Texas, will be part of a reshaped UCLA secondary. — Rittenberg
18. Kansas State: Iowa State
As mentioned above, it’s all about the season opener against Iowa State. It will be the first opportunity for quarterback Avery Johnson and K-State to prove that last year’s all-or-nothing offense has matured a bit. The Wildcats averaged 37.6 points in wins and only 15.8 in losses. They scored TDs on 75% of red zone drives in wins and 42% in losses. They committed more turnovers in the four losses (nine) than in the nine wins (seven). You could almost say that this means K-State’s biggest archrival is K-State. Regardless, Week 0 is enormous. Turnovers and later-down failures cost it dearly against Iowa State last season, and it gets an immediate opportunity to right one of 2024’s wrongs. — Connelly
19. Florida: Georgia
Florida has plenty of teams it considers rivals, but only one on the schedule this season has beaten the Gators four years in a row. That would be Georgia, which has absolutely dominated them since Kirby Smart took over the program in 2016. Smart is 7-2 against Florida, and just like that record, has finished ahead of Florida in the SEC standings seven times. We all know the Gators closed last season strong with big wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but the true litmus test for where this program is — and whether it can return to elite status under coach Billy Napier — is the Georgia game. — Adelson
20. Michigan: Ohio State
Even though the Wolverines have won four straight in the series, Ohio State remains Michigan’s archvillain for obvious reasons. The Buckeyes rattled off eight straight wins before Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh turned the tide in 2021 with the first of the four straight victories. Coach Sherrone Moore salvaged an up-and-down, first full season with a stunning 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus last year. Much of that Ohio State national championship team has moved on to the NFL. But the postgame flag-plant fracas at the Horseshoe last year reinforced why this bitter rivalry has never carried more vitriol for either side. The last thing the Wolverines want this season is to watch Ohio State return the favor by planting its flag on the Block M at the Big House. — Trotter
21. Miami: Syracuse
Georgia Tech is not on the schedule this year or that would be the slam dunk choice. We could go with the obvious “traditional arch nemesis” Notre Dame, which is visiting South Florida for the first time since 2017. But there is another team that gets to wear the villain hat, if only for this season: Syracuse. That’s right, the team that beat Miami 42-38 in the 2024 regular-season finale to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game visits Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 8. While both rosters have turned over since that game, the head coaches remain the same and there might be some added fuel to the fire. — Adelson
22. Louisville: Kentucky
In 2022, Louisville was 10-1 and favored against rival Kentucky. The Cardinals lost. In 2021, they were 7-4 and lost. It was an all-too-familiar story. Since 2016, Louisville has lost as a favorite against its rival three times — often sullying otherwise impressive seasons. Last year, the Cardinals had no such worries as they beat up on the Wildcats, who were slogging through a down season, but Jeff Brohm & Co. know the history too well to assume that will be the start of a trend. There are tougher and bigger games on Louisville’s schedule this season, but none that will mean more than beating those hated Cats. — Hale
23. Texas A&M: Steve Sarkisian
Sarkisian has done a masterful job reloading Texas to meet its potential. Last year, he took the Longhorns into Kyle Field and spoiled the Aggies’ chances of getting into the SEC championship game, and this year, A&M visits Austin for the first time since 2010 where Arch Manning hysteria dominates the headlines and the Longhorns will be seeking a coronation for a playoff run. Sarkisian, an avowed fan of college rivalries and traditions, will look to push all the right buttons to ignite his team. — Wilson
24. Ole Miss: Mississippi State
Don’t get anybody in Oxford started on those “dreaded” cowbells clanging away from fans of the “school down south.” That school being bitter rival Mississippi State, whose former coach, Dan Mullen, used to refer to Ole Miss as the “school up north.” Either way, nobody in the SEC is particularly fond of the Mississippi State cowbells, in no way a banned artificial noisemaker. Yes, that’s a joke. But to Ole Miss fans, they would rather hear nails scratching on a chalkboard. The good news for the Rebels is that they’ve lost only once in the past five games between the schools but will get a heavy dose of the cowbells this Nov. 28 in Starkville. — Low
25. Oklahoma: Texas
In the Wishbone era, and then once again after Bob Stoops took over then ceded way to Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma quarterback position made college football kings. In recent years, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel all put up huge numbers. But the Sooners have fallen back a little and Texas is rolling into the Cotton Bowl with its own football royalty in Arch Manning. Oklahoma needs to right the ship, and all eyes will be on Dallas and where the program stands in the SEC era. — Wilson
It’s posturing season. Major League Baseball’s trade deadline goes through the same mechanics every year. Following June calls to indicate interest in players, early-to-mid-July brings out the first offers, which are inevitably imbalanced toward the teams willing to move players and, accordingly, holding all the leverage.
It’s the reason trades before the All-Star break are rare — and also a reminder that just because a match isn’t there now, it doesn’t preclude one going forward. So many elements play into a deadline (the keenness of teams to send away quality players, the willingness of contenders to make a move over the objection of their analytical model, the standings, recent performance and dozens of others) that to link team and player in a potential deal is a fool’s errand.
Well, consider this slightly foolish. Needs are needs, and even the best teams in baseball have them. Who would be the best players to fill them? This exercise endeavors to answer that.
Below are the 16 teams in MLB with winning records. Certainly a cadre of under-.500 teams — the Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks chief among them — could work their way into the conversation despite their slow starts. For now, though, these are the best teams baseball has to offer, and for each we found a fit among available players that makes too much sense not to pursue.
Teams are listed in order of record by league.
American League
59-35, first place, AL Central
Weakness: Swing-and-miss relievers
Best match: David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cade Smith (Cleveland Guardians) and Griffin Jax (Minnesota Twins) are the right answers, but the likelihood of Detroit pulling off an in-division deal to get a swing-and-miss reliever is minimal. Which leaves Bednar, who has rebounded from an atrocious 2024 to recapture his form of 2021-23, when he was among the five best relievers in baseball. With a high-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and a mean splitter, Bednar’s arsenal would give the Tigers a ninth-inning option beyond Will Vest or Tommy Kahnle.
Beyond the bullpen, the Tigers don’t need much. They can really hit, with eight of their nine regulars sporting slugging percentages of .415 or better. Manager AJ Hinch’s constant tinkering — the most Detroit has used one lineup this year is four times — doesn’t just work, it is an identity the team embraces.
And as much as the Tigers could use capital from their tremendous farm system to add to this team, they don’t necessarily need it. This is the second year of a window that’s bound to last. Securing Bednar’s services for two playoff runs is the sort of incremental step needed to capitalize in a down American League.
55-38, first place, AL West
Weakness: Starting pitching and left-handed hitting
Best match: Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
The Astros lost Alex Bregman to free agency, traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, have spent most of the season without Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, and currently sport a rotation that includes 26- and 28-year-old rookies. There is no reason they should be this good. And yet they are.
So even if the cost is heavy and eats into a farm system that’s among the worst in MLB, targeting a pitcher of Lugo’s ilk would give them among the nastiest postseason rotations in the game and further entrench the Astros as a force. Lugo’s peripherals suggest he’s in line for regression but even if his ERA does jump from its current 2.67 mark, Lugo’s nine-pitch mix gives him the flexibility to adjust in-game — a luxury shared by only a handful of starters in the game.
54-39, first place, American League East
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Adding Keller solves multiple problems at once. The 29-year-old is producing the best season of his seven-year career with the Pirates, averaging nearly six innings a start and giving up only seven home runs in 106⅓ innings. The Blue Jays need rotation help — and, in a deal for Keller, could try to get David Bednar, Dennis Santana or Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates to complement an already-good bullpen riding breakouts from Braydon Fisher and Brendon Little.
Further, Keller remains under contract for three years at a reasonable $54.5 million, and with starters Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer free agents after this year and Kevin Gausman following the 2026 season, Toronto covets controllable starting pitching in a market that, at the moment at least, doesn’t offer much.
Pittsburgh could hold onto Keller and march into 2026 with a staff of Keller, Paul Skenes, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler and Bailey Falter — easily a top-10 rotation, maybe better — with Hunter Barco not far behind. But the Pirates desperately need bats and while Toronto’s farm system is not teeming with them, the Blue Jays can cobble together enough to make a deal worth Pittsburgh’s while.
51-41, second place, AL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Third baseman and pitching
Best match: Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks
This could be Seth Lugo. Or Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians. Or any number of players. The Yankees are not going to stop at one player this deadline. For all their strengths — and there are plenty — they have too many weaknesses to take half-measures.
Suárez is an excellent first step. His power is undeniable, a perfect fit in the middle of any lineup. He plays third base, a black hole for New York this season. The Yankees could two-birds-one-stone a deal and get Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly from Arizona, too. But Suárez is the main target, because even if other third-base options exist — Nolan Arenado in St. Louis, Ryan McMahon in Colorado, Ke’Bryan Hayes in Pittsburgh — they’re owed significant money and are under contract for multiple years. Suárez’s expiring contract would allow the Yankees a trial run, and if he thrives in the Bronx, all they would need to bring him back is cash.
50-43, third place, AL East (second wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins
Remember, now, this is the best match, not necessarily the likeliest. Minnesota is notoriously value-conscious in its dealings, and the Twins will put an exceptionally high price on Jax, whom they regard as one of the best relievers in baseball — an opinion shared by most teams. With a fastball that sits at 97 mph and a dastardly slider, he is a setup man in name and a closer in stuff — precisely what the Rays, who are missing Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge, could use.
The Rays aren’t typically the sort of team to overpay for relievers, even ones with two additional years of club control. If not Jax, they could opt for Brock Stewart (Twins), who likewise has a vast array of swing-and-miss stuff — and two more years of team control as well.
48-44, second place, AL West (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Corner infielder
Best match: Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks
Though the Mariners are managing with Donovan Solano and Luke Raley at first base, upgrading to Naylor would transform Seattle’s lineup for the better. Whether it’s slotting him behind J.P. Crawford to ensure Cal Raleigh comes to the plate with more baserunners, or sticking him in between Raleigh and Randy Arozarena to do the cleaning up himself, Naylor is a high-average, low-strikeout slugger whose quality at-bats would help transform a solid Seattle lineup into something more.
Pairing him with Eugenio Suárez would plug both of Seattle’s holes, and certainly the Mariners have the prospect capital to pull off the double. Considering the state of their pitching — a tremendous rotation and a Gabe Speier–Matt Brash–Andrés Muñoz endgame — the Mariners need only a depth reliever to feel comfortable. Upgrading the lineup is the distinct priority over the next three weeks, and executives expect Seattle to act aggressively.
49-45, fourth place, AL East (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
Red Sox relievers walk too many hitters and don’t strike out enough. Take away Aroldis Chapman — the best reliever in the AL this season — and the Red Sox have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen. Getting Helsley from St. Louis would give Boston arguably the top setup-closer combination in baseball and go a long way toward supporting a rotation that has been among the game’s best over the past month.
Boston has the makings of a very good team in the second half. Alex Bregman will return soon. Roman Anthony has an OPS of nearly 1.000 over his past 10 games. Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the best center fielders in baseball. Carlos Narváez is a gem. Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, even Abraham Toro — everyone is contributing. A reliever or two and another starter would make the Red Sox the sort of contender they envisioned being at the beginning of the season.
National League
56-38, first place, NL West
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
The Dodgers enter every deadline season seeking a major move, and the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Durán qualifies. With a fastball that averages over 100 mph, a splinker that sits at 98 and a curveball to keep hitters off balance, Durán is pitching as well as ever. He hasn’t given up a home run this season, and his 1.52 ERA is third in MLB for pitchers with at least 40 innings.
The asking price will be hefty. Durán comes with two more years of team control beyond this season. The Dodgers don’t have time to waste on taking advantage of Shohei Ohtani‘s prime, though, and assembling a team with standouts in all facets is a reasonable goal. For a group threatening to approach a major league record for pitchers used in a season — the Dodgers are at 35, the record is 42 from Seattle in 2019 — adding another wouldn’t in and of itself be a needle-mover. If that one happens to be Durán, the Dodgers could theoretically trot out him, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia to make their bullpen every bit as scary as the rest of their team.
Chicago Cubs
54-38, first place, NL Central
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins
The market for Alcántara might not reflect his résumé. A former Cy Young Award winner, the 29-year-old has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball this season, with an ERA just above 7.22. Some teams — even ones that could desperately use starting pitching — see the remaining two years and $38.3 million on Alcántara’s deal as an impediment to any trade, particularly with Marlins GM Peter Bendix asking for a haul in return.
Whether it’s Alcántara or another starter, the Cubs are a good starter away from having one of the top teams in baseball. Their offense is undeniable. Their defense is magnificent. Their bullpen has been a pleasant surprise. Adding a playoff-caliber starter, even if it pushes Chicago past the $241 million luxury-tax threshold, would reward a team that has brought excitement back to the North Side of Chicago.
54-39, first place, National League East
Weakness: Bullpen and outfield
Best match: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
As long as the Phillies are aiming high — and nobody aims high quite like Dave Dombrowski — perhaps they could take a run at landing both Clase and Steven Kwan from Cleveland. Maybe it would take Andrew Painter. Maybe Aidan Miller. Maybe Justin Crawford. Regardless, the Phillies’ window is closing, and getting both club control (Clase is under contract through 2028 and Kwan through 2027) and cost certainty (Clase is due $26 million for the next three years and Kwan less than $20 million for two) would make dealing high-end prospects significantly more palatable.
If Cleveland ultimately balks at moving Clase, it doesn’t change the imperative: Philadelphia needs to address its weaknesses. This bullpen is not suited to win a playoff series, much less the World Series. The consequence of bad relief pitching manifested itself in the postseason last year, when the New York Mets filleted Phillies relievers for 17 runs in 12⅔ innings. No other bullpen gave up more than nine runs in the division series. Clase (or Jhoan Durán or any shutdown reliever, really) is just a start. An on-the-fly overhaul is what this team needs — and deserves.
53-39, second place, NL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Mets started 45-24 on the strength of their starting pitching. With a 2.79 ERA that was nearly a quarter-run better than the second-best rotation, they cut the figure of a juggernaut. Since June 13, their starters’ 5.61 ERA is worse than every team in baseball aside from Washington. And if your starters are getting compared to those of the Nationals, something went haywire.
Gallen has looked more like his old self in recent starts, and if his home run rate stabilizes — typically one per nine, it has jumped to 1.6 — alongside a perilously low strand rate normalizing, he can shake off the 5.15 ERA and be a real difference-maker for the Mets before hitting free agency after the season. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t, as a general rule, spend big on pitching. In this case, though, an investment in Gallen makes too much sense for the Mets not to consider.
53-40, second place, NL Central (second wild card)
Weakness: Power
Best match: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles
With 88 home runs, the Brewers rank just 21st in MLB. And while that hasn’t impeded their production — they’re eighth in runs scored — another big bat could do their offense wonders. Nobody will mistake the soon-to-be-32-year-old O’Hearn for Aaron Judge, but he punishes right-handed pitching, and in a lineup without any boppers, O’Hearn also could serve as the strong side of a first-base platoon and pick up outfield and DH at-bats.
Milwaukee’s options are fascinating. Jacob Misiorowski‘s arrival has been an unmitigated success and only added to the Brewers’ starting pitching depth. They could easily move a starting pitcher and tap into their deep prospect well for O’Hearn. The add-and-subtract maneuver is risky, sure, but the Brewers have steeled themselves to weather it. The Brewers, as currently constituted, are solid. Better second halves from Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz, continued solid pitching and the proper sort of deadline aggressiveness could make them even more.
51-43, second place, NL West (third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants made their big move already, getting the best player who will move this season — designated hitter Rafael Devers — to shore up their offense. Intradivision trades can be trying, but if Buster Posey has shown anything in his first season as president of baseball operations, it’s a willingness to stomach the sorts of deals that would scare off his peers.
Kelly represents a significant upgrade over the Giants’ backend rotation options, as Justin Verlander and Hayden Birdsong are sporting ERAs of 6.27 and 5.73, respectively, since June 1. Whether the Giants are real or simply a function of a bullpen whose core of Camilo Doval, Randy Rodriguez, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller, Spencer Bivens and Ryan Walker has given up only 11 home runs in 232⅔ innings remains to be seen. For an organization seeking its first postseason series win in nearly a decade, though, there is never a time as urgent as now.
49-43, third place, NL West (one game behind third wild card)
Weakness: Left field
Best match: Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
No player and team have been linked as strongly as Duran and the Padres — and that’s without any knowledge of how the Red Sox intend to handle the deadline. Roman Anthony’s emergence has put Boston in a position to float Duran and Wilyer Abreu in trade discussions, and whether it’s now or over the winter, Boston wants to use its surplus of bats to fill voids elsewhere.
Left field in San Diego is among the biggest voids in the game. The Padres have tried eight players in left this season, and collectively they’re barely have an OPS of over .600. A Duran-Jackson Merrill–Fernando Tatis Jr. outfield would be a factory of dynamism that would be under team control through the end of the 2028 season. The Padres might need to get creative — beyond shortstop Leo De Vries (who’s believed to be off-limits) and catcher Ethan Salas, their farm system is middling — but nobody does creativity like GM A.J. Preller. And whether that means facilitating a deal through a third team or including one of their high-leverage relievers like closer Robert Suárez, San Diego is willing to go places most other organizations would never consider.
49-44, third place, NL Central (1½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
Certainly there’s a world in which John Mozeliak’s final deadline as St. Louis’ president of baseball operations is uneventful. The NL is stacked, and for all of the Cardinals’ improvement this season, they remain a flawed team. And yet there’s also a world in which Mozeliak can make this year’s team better and simultaneously set up his successor, Chaim Bloom, with a rotation option for the future.
The Rays don’t have a strong desire to move the 24-year-old Bradley, but with Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Joe Boyle all pitching well, and ace Shane McClanahan out on a rehabilitation assignment, Tampa Bay is at least entertaining the idea. Bradley’s stuff has exceeded his performance over his three major league seasons, but the controllable-starting-pitching market is practically empty, and St. Louis’ farm system is replete with high-end catchers, which would fill a vacuum for the Rays
47-46, fourth place, NL Central (3½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Bullpen and big bat
Best match: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
With a sneaky-deep farm system, the Reds could put together the sort of package to convince Cleveland to move Kwan, a two-time All-Star who in his four seasons ranks fifth in wins above replacement among all outfielders, behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodríguez. Kwan’s bat-to-ball and defensive skills in left field are elite, and with free agency not beckoning until after the 2027 season, sandwiching him between TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz strengthens a Reds lineup that could use an offensive infusion.
If the cost to acquire Kwan is too high, other good options exist, chief among them Marcell Ozuna, the Atlanta slugger whose swing was built for Great American Ball Park. With a rotation that includes All-Star Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Chase Burns, the Reds are a terrifying postseason opponent. Another bat would buttress the rotation and give Cincinnati an opportunity to turn potential into its first postseason series win in three decades.
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David Schoenfield
Comparing MLB to the NBA is kind of like comparing apples to pomegranates, but the NBA, with its rapid-fire spate of blockbuster trades and signings, certainly has us wishing major league front office executives operated as daringly as their basketball counterparts.
The conservative nature in baseball is understandable. Nobody wants to end up as the general manager who trades Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez and a failed playoff bid.
But every now and then we get a shocking deal. At the MLB trade deadline in 2022, the San Diego Padres gave up five highly rated young players to acquire Juan Soto, who still had two-plus seasons left of team control. Three of those young players — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams — now form the core of the Washington Nationals. And just a few weeks ago came the surprise mid-June trade of Rafael Devers, in only the second year of a 10-year contract, from the Boston Red Sox to the San Francisco Giants.
Might another similarly entertaining megadeal occur this month ahead of the deadline on July 31? Probably not, but we can dream.
Let’s consider three players who almost certainly won’t be made available for trade this year, but whose names have been kicked around in (quite unlikely) fan trade scenarios. If the right offer did arrive, the player’s organization would have to at least consider making the deal … right?
Call them Godfather offers. Let’s see what it would take to land three star players in 2025.
(All prospect rankings are from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 update from late May.)
Why they’ll probably keep him: He’s arguably the best starter in baseball, perhaps on his way to a Cy Young Award in his first full season. He’s one of the biggest names in the sport — despite playing for the lowly Pirates — and a player you can build not only a pitching staff around but a championship contender. He’s under team control through 2029 and doesn’t even become arbitration-eligible until 2027, so the Pirates are still years away from paying him a fair salary.
But Skenes is a pitcher — and pitchers get hurt. So, if the Pirates are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: New York Mets offer SS/CF Jett Williams (No. 20), RHP Jonah Tong (No. 50), RHP Nolan McLean, IF Ronny Mauricio, OF Carson Benge
Offer No. 2: Los Angeles Dodgers offer C/OF Dalton Rushing (No. 14), OF Josue De Paula (No. 17), IF Alex Freeland, RHP Emmet Sheehan, LHP Jackson Ferris
Offer No. 3: Detroit Tigers offer OF Max Clark (No. 8), SS Kevin McGonigle (No. 11), RHP Jackson Jobe, IF Colt Keith, RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
The one that could get it done: Tigers
A playoff rotation with Skenes and Tarik Skubal? Thank you very much. Reminder: The Tigers haven’t won the World Series since 1984.
It will take one of the best farm systems in the sport to acquire Skenes, and Detroit is incredibly well positioned to make this kind of deal, with depth at both the major league and minor league levels, not to mention a payroll with only one expensive long-term commitment in Javier Baez. Two of the top prospects in the sport in Clark and McGonigle headline this trade, with both currently excelling in High-A ball. Clark, a speedy center fielder, has a .429 OBP with more walks than strikeouts, and McGonigle is hitting .373 with a high contact rate and OPS over 1.100. Former top pitching prospect Jobe underwent Tommy John surgery in June and would be a nice inclusion for the Pirates to gamble on.
For the Tigers, the deal wouldn’t even decimate their farm system. They would still have shortstop Bryce Rainer (No. 22), first baseman/catcher Josue Briceno and a slew of solid pitching prospects. For the Pirates, Clark and McGonigle project as solutions at two problem areas in center field (where Oneil Cruz has struggled defensively) and shortstop (stopgap Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the current starter) plus they get a solid major leaguer in Keith and a back-end rotation-type in Gipson-Long.
As much as the Mets could use a staff ace, their system is deeper in pitching prospects, which doesn’t best align with the Pirates’ needs. As the Dodgers’ pitching injuries have piled up again, Skenes could be a match. Rushing is blocked at catcher by Will Smith, and he and De Paula probably have more power upside (De Paula has drawn Yordan Alvarez comparisons) than Clark and McGonigle. The Pirates might, understandably, ask for Roki Sasaki, and that could be the deal-breaker for the Dodgers.
Why they’ll probably keep him: Acuña has been one of the best hitters in the majors since returning in late May from his second ACL surgery and has been the best hitter on a Braves team that is near the bottom of the National League in runs scored. He is signed through 2028 on an incredibly team-friendly deal that pays him just $17 million per season — making it one of the best contracts in the sport for a team. At just 27 years old, he remains in the middle of his prime and is one of the sport’s most dynamic talents.
But Acuña’s knees are a long-term concern, Atlanta lacks depth in both the lineup and pitching staff, and this looks like a lost season.
So, if the Braves are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Milwaukee Brewers offer SS Jesus Made (No. 5), SS Luis Pena, OF Sal Frelick, RHP Logan Henderson, RHP Abner Uribe
Offer No. 2: Seattle Mariners offer SS Colt Emerson (No. 10), RHP Bryce Miller, C Harry Ford, OF Lazaro Montes, LHP Brandyn Garcia
Offer No. 3: Tampa Bay Rays offer SS Carson Willliams (No. 27), RHP Shane Baz, OF Theo Gillen, RHP Yoniel Curet, RHP Brody Hopkins
The one that could get it done: Mariners
The Mariners have never played in a World Series. Their right-field production is among the worst in the majors. Oh, and they have a loaded farm system with nine prospects on MLB.com’s recently updated top 100, more than any other team. On that list, Emerson came in at No. 18, Montes at No. 29 and Ford at No. 56. Miller’s value is temporarily down since he’s out because of right elbow inflammation, but he had a 2.94 ERA for the Mariners in 2024 and could give the Braves a front-line starter if healthy.
Ford might not be a perfect fit for Atlanta with Drake Baldwin (plus Sean Murphy) at catcher, but Cal Raleigh blocks Ford in Seattle. The Braves could trade Murphy in the offseason, and Ford does have the athleticism to play some outfield — although he has played exclusively behind the plate at Triple-A, where he’s hitting over .300 with an OBP over .400. Emerson is a favorite of scouts with his hard contact and ability to play shortstop, although he’s still learning to lift the ball more, while Montes recently earned a promotion to Double-A after slugging .572 in High-A at age 20.
For the Mariners, Acuña would fit nicely at the top of the order or hitting second in front of Raleigh, allowing them to slide Julio Rodriguez lower in the lineup — and maybe Acuña’s presence would also help take some pressure off Rodriguez. Most importantly: Acuña’s salary is a realistic fit even for the Mariners, who don’t like to spend. And despite giving up three excellent prospects and a young starting pitcher, their farm system would remain strong. Plus, they have the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.
Milwaukee’s offer is enticing with two premium hitting prospects in Made and Pena, but it’s a riskier package as the 18-year-olds are a long way from the majors and neither is a lock to stick at shortstop, a big offensive hole in the Braves’ lineup. Williams would be the key to the Tampa Bay trade, but his sky-high strikeout rate at Triple-A has caused him to drop in the rankings and limits his offensive upside.
Why they’ll probably keep him: The Twins are under .500, but that doesn’t mean they’re out of the playoff race. Buxton has been their best player and best hitter as he’s on pace for a career high in WAR. Though he hasn’t reached the heights of Acuña at Acuña’s best, Buxton’s contract is also team friendly, as he’s signed through 2028 and making $15.1 million per season. He’s 31 years old but is still one of the better defensive center fielders in the game.
But Buxton, while healthy in 2025, is frequently sidelined by injuries. So, if the Twins are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Philadelphia Phillies offer RHP Andrew Painter (No. 23) and OF Justin Crawford
Offer No. 2: Cincinnati Reds offer RHP Rhett Lowder (No. 48), RHP Chase Petty (No. 49) and 3B Sal Stewart
Offer No. 3: Kansas City Royals offer LHP Cole Ragans and LHP David Shields
The one that could get it done: Phillies
The Phillies, Reds and Royals all could use an outfielder to add some punch to their lineups, although in Cincinnati’s case, its biggest hole is at third base. Philadelphia has a lot riding on 2025 given the age of its lineup, and executive Dave Dombrowski knows how to go all-in. In this case, that would mean parting with one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Painter, plus a promising young outfielder hitting well at Triple-A.
Trading Painter would be painful, but the Phillies remain deep in the rotation with Zack Wheeler (signed through 2027), Cristopher Sanchez (signed through 2030), Aaron Nola (signed through 2030) and Jesus Luzardo (under team control through 2026). Ranger Suarez, who’s having an excellent season, is heading into free agency, so he’s the one arm they might lose. But center field has been a soft spot in recent seasons, with the Phillies in the bottom third in the majors in OPS this year, and the team’s overall power output has been below average, even with Kyle Schwarber. Adding Buxton adds more pop to the middle of the order.
Painter gives the Twins a potential ace, and they have top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez ready to take over in center field anyway. The 21-year-old Crawford is a divisive prospect (he’s No. 49 in the MLB.com rankings) because while he’s hitting for a high average at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he hits the ball on the ground too much and has only two home runs. Still, there’s a chance he produces a good OBP and plus defense with his speed.
The Royals’ challenge trade with Ragans is intriguing but risky for Minnesota, given he’s on the injured list right now because of a rotator cuff strain. Plus, intradivision trades are hard to pull off. The Twins would want Chase Burns from the Reds, but that’s probably a nonstarter for Cincinnati.
Will we get some surprise spicy deals this trade deadline? Will it just be the usual list of free-agents-to-be and relief pitchers? In a season that remains so wide open, the time might be right for some outside-the-box movement.
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