‘I truly believe he’s going to shock the world:’ Inside Patrick Kane’s rehab and why he picked the Red Wings
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Emily Kaplan, ESPN
For nearly six months, the greatest active American-born hockey player, the one fans call Showtime, lived in obscurity. As Patrick Kane recovered from hip resurfacing surgery — a bold move to breathe new life into his career at age 35 — he relocated his family to Toronto.
For three hours a day, Monday through Friday, Kane worked with chiropractor Ian McIntyre, who oversaw the rehab. Then he got on the ice. Kane’s skating coach, Randi Milani, made sure his locker rooms at the local rinks were farthest away from the lobby. She insisted that LiveBarn, the ubiquitous arena streaming service, was turned off, and often reserved ice time under fake names. Sessions included Kane battling in drills with retired defenseman Cody Golobeuf and shooting on free agent goalie Chris Gibson. Spectators who somehow caught wind were kindly told to get lost.
When it was finally time for Kane to meet with NHL suitors, a series of Zoom calls with teams interested in signing the free agent, one head coach remarked: “Wait, you were in Toronto, the center of the hockey universe, this whole time?”
It marked a new era for Kane. The winger has won nearly everything there is to win — three Stanley Cups, league MVP, playoff MVP, a scoring title — while captivating the biggest crowds with inimitable dangles. But, Kane said, he had “a little bit of a sour taste in my mouth after last year.”
After being traded away from the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks, his home for 16 seasons, Kane’s short stint with the New York Rangers underwhelmed by his standards. Kane had six goals and 19 points in 26 games as the Rangers were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by the Devils. “Going to New York was a new challenge for me,” Kane said. “I was really excited about it but it didn’t really go the way I expected or the team expected. I figured at that point it was probably time to do something to give myself a chance to get back to a high level — almost more mentally rather than physically. I don’t want to say [I was] miserable, but I was thinking about [my hip] every day.”
Kane was willing to tear it all down — opting for a procedure with little proof of concept in the NHL, powering through 116 treatment sessions to relearn movement patterns. Risky would be an understatement.
“It was no man’s land in terms of what to expect,” McIntyre said.
But Kane’s confidence barely wavered. He still considers himself one of the top players in the league, when healthy. Kane believed, firmly, he had more to give. So he attacked rehab with his signature meticulousness and intensity.
If Kane finds the success he’s expecting, his legend will only grow — and he could set a new path forward for other players.
“No one’s really come back from this type of surgery, but no one has done what he’s done to recover this way,” Milani said. “Right now, he’s moving better now than he was a few years ago. It’s crazy. I truly believe he’s going to shock the world. It’s going to be unreal.”
KANE’S HIP BEGAN bothering him in the 2020 NHL bubble — and only got worse. Kane’s crossover left over right was “pretty much nonexistent,” he said. By last season, those close to Kane described him as essentially playing on one leg.
“Anytime I would take a hit on the right side of the hip, the joint would kind of compress and it would basically feel like bone on bone,” Kane said. “So your leg like shuts down for like 30 or 45 seconds. It’s just painful, right? You’re almost playing the game not to get hit, which you can’t do in this league.”
Kane was reluctant to have surgery. He loved the game too much, he couldn’t imagine taking time away. Once the Rangers were eliminated, Kane’s agents at CAA took him to see Dr. Edwin Su at New York’s Hospital of Special Surgery.
“When I saw his hip, it was completely, completely worn out,” Su said. “It’s incredible he was still able to play, and play at a pretty high level.”
Hip resurfacing surgery involves placing a metal ball on top of the head of the femur (thighbone), capping it like a tooth, then fitting the socket with a thin metal shell. It was first performed in the United States in 2006, when the implant was FDA approved, meaning there’s still not much long-term data on several aspects. Su said hip resurfacing has fallen out of favor among many surgeons who are concerned about the impact of metal-on-metal, and it represents less than 1% of artificial hips in the United States. The ideal candidate is a healthy, young (under 50) male. Only two NHL players have returned to the ice after having their hip resurfaced: Ed Jovanovski, who retired after 37 games, and Nicklas Backstrom, who stepped away after playing eight games this season,17 months after his procedure.
Kane peppered Su with questions, but at the core he wanted to know: will this make me better?
“If you’re still playing with such a bad hip,” Su told Kane. “Then there’s no doubt it should make you better.”
Su was particularly confident about Kane’s prognosis. Other athletes underwent hip resurfacing as a last resort, having done several procedures beforehand. That meant bone cartilage was shaved down, leading to muscle atrophy. “Part of [Kane’s] incredible recovery is that he did this right off the bat instead of having other surgeries and letting the condition deteriorate further,” Su said. “He also may have more success than others because he’s incredibly fit. He’s not really heavy. He’s just an agile person.”
Su downplayed potential risks of hip resurfacing, even in a high-impact sport like hockey.
“The only thing holding this artificial hip in place is the joint capsule, the tissue and the muscle force. So it would have to be really unusual, but you could imagine some sort of collision where the leg is basically torqued in a way that pulls it out of the socket,” Su said. “That would definitely be worrisome, but hockey I don’t think is a high risk. I’m more worried about football, because of the pile-ons.”
Since Kane’s operation, Su has performed a double hip resurfacing on free agent Jesse Puljujarvi, who is 25, and said there is another active NHL player who is considering. “The biggest risk was the unknown factor,” Kane said. “But from what it sounds like, more guys will end up having the surgery. Hopefully I’ll be a pioneer and play for a long time.”
Kane underwent the surgery in June. Almost immediately, his pain disappeared. Within two weeks, he was on a skating treadmill. A week later, he was jumping off a box. “So I think when he got to us, he thought ‘wow this is going to go fast,'” McIntyre said. “But then I showed him some very easy things that he couldn’t do, that was humbling for him. Then, the light switch went off. He wanted to be the best at it.”
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Why Patrick Kane joining the Red Wings is ‘massive’
Kevin Weekes explains why Patrick Kane signing with the Red Wings is such an impactful move.
AS HE PLAYED through his injury, those close to Kane said he was bothered when people commented on his limp.
“Even after the surgery that was something that surprised him, that he was still limping,” McIntyre said. “But some of that movement isn’t in your hip, it’s in your brain. If you’ve been limping for 2½ years, you can fix the joints but your brain still acts like it’s hurt.”
McIntyre said the arthritis in Kane’s hip severely impacted his range of motion — something he needed to relearn after the operation.
“If I asked him to rotate on his hip on a small elastic band, when he came back to the beginning, it would snap back,” McIntyre said. “He had no strength to hold himself in that position. Being such a good athlete, he just found a way to work around it. Which is remarkable, because he couldn’t move.”
McIntyre and strength coach Jason Martin progressively added exercises for Kane. Many were mundane and tedious. Kane had only one speed: diligence. If Kane did nine reps perfectly and messed up on the 10th, he would start doing the 11th, 12th and 13th unprompted.
“I was surprised by how hard he was on himself, despite all that he accomplished in his career, and having arguably the best hands in the world,” said Golobeuf, who joined the on-ice sessions once Kane was ready to absorb contact. “The look in his eyes if he mishandled one time, I was like, ‘Whoa.’ And then the focus he’d have on the next rep would be incredible. I think it’s important for young guys to know a guy that good also works that hard.”
But Kane also has traits that are unteachable: how he processes the game, how he dials in when the puck is on his stick.
Sometimes Golobeuf would say something on the ice, met with no reaction from Kane. Golobeuf would wonder: Did I say it loud enough? Could he hear me?
“He was so in the zone,” Golobeuf said. “I feel like he doesn’t hear anything outside of his own head.”
A COUPLE OF TEAMS were willing to sign Kane on July 1, when he became a free agent. Kane preferred to wait, finishing out his rehab to see how he felt. He also wanted to see how the season shook out.
Kane met with five teams on Zoom. He met with another general manager, Florida’s Bill Zito, in Toronto. The options were intriguing. Zito pitched for Kane to play alongside Aleksander Barkov, one of the few players in the league who processes the game at a similar level. Kane could live out his childhood dream of playing for the Buffalo Sabres. He could team up with fellow American Auston Matthews and help the Maple Leafs (and Canada) break through their Stanley Cup drought. The defending champion Vegas Golden Knights rolled out an entire deck. On his call with the Boston Bruins, Kane nerded out over X’s and O’s with coach Jim Montgomery. Following nearly every call, Kane was personally recruited by the team’s star players.
“I could say so many good things about different teams I talked to and their interest in me was incredible,” Kane said. “I mean, some teams you don’t really expect to have interest in you, and they do, and it’s a good feeling.”
Kane watches as much hockey as anyone in the NHL. His nightly routine is putting his three-year-old son, Patrick Kane III, down to bed – “then watch hockey the rest of the night,” he said. He asked pointed questions about teams’ medical staffs, their personnel and systems — even their neutral and defensive zones.
Kane also showed a level of humility, repeatedly saying: ‘I know I need to earn my spot’ and that he didn’t expect to play on a team’s top line or top power-play unit.
But as Kane went through the process, in the back of his mind, he always came back to Detroit. At age 14 Kane moved away from home to play for the Michigan-based Honeybaked AAA program, where he billeted with Red Wings legend Pat Verbeek. Kane fell in love with Detroit, which was just as obsessed with hockey as he was. He adored the Red Wings’ history and tradition.
But the Red Wings, who have been in a timeframe-less rebuild, still had to win Kane over.
“Our approach, me and [GM] Steve [Yzerman], was to be simple, direct and honest,” coach Derek Lalonde said, knowing that whatever he said, Kane would fact check with one of his good friends, Alex DeBrincat. Lalonde had a vision for Kane — including pairing him with DeBrincat early, finding ways to create wide ice, where he thrives, and maximizing Kane’s ability to play off his off hand.
The Red Wings are looking to break a seven-year playoff drought. For the last several years, they’ve subtracted ahead of the trade deadline, which dejected the group – especially last season. “Steve [Yzerman] has a plan, he’s extremely patient,” Lalonde said. “But Kane choosing us, it’s a credit to what the guys built and what they’re doing. This is the first shot in the arm.”
Lalonde had heard stories about what type of competitor and teammate Kane is. A few of Lalonde’s friends, including Tampa Bay assistant Jeff Blashill, were on the staff of the USA 2018 World Championship team.
“It was one of the first years Chicago missed the playoffs, so he went to the World Championships,” Lalonde said. “They won the bronze medal, they had an end of the tournament party. He’s the only guy who wore his medal during the whole thing. Those are the things that were in my head before meeting him. And then once I did [meet him], I was maybe even more impressed. It’s like talking to the CEO of a company. He’s inquisitive about all of the right things.”
Kane agreed to terms with the Red Wings on Nov. 28. The team had already departed for New York for a game against the Rangers as Kane reported to the facility for his physical. Once he cleared, Kane had a request: he wanted to fly to New York as soon as possible, to join his new teammates.
Kane has been patient with his debut. When he finally gets back in a game, a culmination of the quiet hard work he’s been putting in since June, he wants to be Showtime again.
“I’m very optimistic,” Kane said. “Hopefully I’ll be even better than I was in the past.”
Additional reporting by ESPN’s Stephania Bell.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida fired coach Billy Napier on Sunday, a day after an error-filled win against Mississippi State that included more head-scratching calls and offensive lulls like those that marked much of his four-year run with the Gators.
Athletic director Scott Stricklin made the move following a 23-21 victory that improved the Gators’ record to 3-4 but looked as if it was going to be a gut-wrenching loss until defensive tackle Michai Boireau picked off a pass with 21 seconds left and the Bulldogs near field goal range.
The game-sealing takeaway energized The Swamp, but the home crowd quickly turned on Napier and booed him as he sprinted off the field. Stricklin had seen enough and pulled the plug on a run that most of the Florida faithful thought lasted longer than it should have.
Florida owes Napier roughly $21 million, with half of that buyout due within 30 days. The rest will be spread over three annual installments beginning next summer, meaning that, since the Gators are still paying former coach Dan Mullen, they will be paying three head coaches for the second time in seven years once they hire Napier’s replacement; they did the same with Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Mullen in 2018.
Napier went 22-23 in four seasons at Florida, including 12-16 in SEC play. He was 5-17 against ranked opponents, including 0-14 away from home, and declined to give up his playcalling role despite calls to do so.
Equally damning: His 3-12 mark against rivals Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami and Tennessee includes the fewest wins by a Florida coach in such games since the late 1930s.
Napier is the first full-time coach at Florida to finish his tenure with a losing record since Raymond Wolf (1946 to ’49).
“Making this decision during the open date provides our team valuable time to regroup, refocus, and prepare for the challenges ahead. The timing also allows us to conduct a thoughtful, thorough, and well-informed search for our next head coach. We remain fully committed to utilizing every resource available to identify the right leader to guide Gators Football into the future,” Stricklin said in a statement.
“I will conduct the search with a high degree of confidentiality to protect the privacy of those involved. The search will focus on the hiring of an elite football coach who will embody the standard we have at the University of Florida, and we will continue to provide all of the necessary resources for that coach, his staff and the players to be successful.”
Receivers coach Billy Gonzales was named interim for Florida’s remaining five games, beginning against rival Georgia (6-1, 4-1 Southeastern Conference) on Nov. 1 in Jacksonville. The Gators (3-4, 2-2) have an off week to regroup from the chaos that often comes with a coaching change.
Jettisoning Napier will temporarily quell a frustrated fanbase, but the group won’t truly be satisfied until the Gators hire someone with a proven track record at college football’s highest level.
Napier sealed his fate against the Bulldogs. He dialed up a QB rollout on a third-and-1 play in the waning minutes that led to a punt and gave Mississippi State a chance down the stretch. He also called a QB keeper on a third-and-7 play earlier in the game, botched the final possession before halftime and was flagged for having 12 men on the field during a 2-point try.
It was a fitting end for a coach who often looked in over his head in the powerhouse SEC. Between repeated penalties, game organization issues, clock management miscues and running an offensive scheme that was as predictable as it was pedestrian, Napier stuck around longer than many thought he deserved.
Stricklin gave the coach a public vote of confidence shortly before the Gators won their final four games of 2024. They hoped to carry that momentum into Napier’s fourth season, but quarterback DJ Lagway was out close to eight months recovering from injuries — and it showed.
Lagway looked mostly lost in the pocket as Florida struggled to move the ball. Suddenly, the two-time Sun Belt Conference coach of the year, who gained fame at his previous stop by saying “scared money don’t make money,” seemed afraid to get the ball down the field the way Lagway did with such ease as a freshman.
Most outsiders saw this ending coming. Although Napier accomplished plenty while helping the program navigate name, image and likeness compensation and revenue sharing, he churned through assistants while failing to find much consistency on either side of the ball.
“The standards and expectations for Gators football are to win championships — not simply to compete. We exist to win, and will not settle for less. UF has never been more invested in the success of this football program — elite facilities, robust NIL opportunities and comprehensive support for our student athletes and staff — than we are today,” Strickland said.
“The University of Florida is a destination — a place where people come to achieve excellence. With our resources, passionate fan base, and unwavering commitment, we are determined to return Gators football to championship form. I understand and accept the responsibility to deliver a football program that reflects the greatness of this university and I thank Gator Nation for their continued support as we begin this next chapter together.”
Florida hired Napier in 2021 after he went 40-12 in four seasons as Louisiana’s coach.
The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.
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Bill Connelly
With four ranked-versus-ranked games on the Week 8 docket, we were guaranteed to see some good teams fall this weekend. We got more than we bargained for. No. 2 Miami lost as a 10.5-point home favorite to an unranked team. No. 7 Texas Tech (10.5-point favorite), No. 22 Memphis (21.5-point favorite) and No. 25 Nebraska (5.5-point favorite) all fell to unranked squads as well.
And in the SEC, No. 4 Texas A&M barely survived 2-4 Arkansas, while No. 16 Missouri (against 3-3 Auburn) and No. 21 Texas (against 2-3 Kentucky) needed overtime to secure road wins.
Parity has been the watchword in college football this year — the elite teams don’t seem quite as elite, and the sport’s middle class seems closer to the top of the pack than usual. It rules, frankly. Week 8 certainly reinforced that notion. It was a breathless mess from start to finish.
In times like these, it’s hard to know what teams and players you can trust. I’m here to help. After eight topsy-turvy weeks, we have at least a decent idea of teams’ ceilings and floors, so let’s talk about college football’s most — and least — trustworthy entities.
I went on an Ohio State podcast last week and revealed an ugly truth: Ohio State is annoying the hell out of me this season. Amid all the parity talk, I’m pretty sure Ryan Day’s Buckeyes are comfortably the best team in the country at the moment, but they choose to drop hints only in periodic doses. I prefer my elite teams to win games 63-0 and basically wear a giant “WE’RE ELITE” sign, but after last season’s experience — in which the Buckeyes lost late in the year to Michigan but shifted into fifth gear in four comfortable College Football Playoff wins — no one better understands that the goal is to peak in December, not October.
It would help if they had some elite opponents to look toward, but the Big Ten opponent on their schedule that was supposed to be elite (Penn State) is anything but, and the Buckeyes aren’t scheduled to play Indiana. Instead, they’ve been left to alternate between second-gear blowouts of iffy to bad teams and comfortable 18-point road wins over solid-but-unspectacular opponents such as Illinois and Washington.
Day at least let Julian Sayin throw some pitches Saturday. In front of a less-than-robust Wisconsin crowd (perhaps just hours before the inevitable firing of head coach Luke Fickell), Sayin, who averaged just 26.8 dropbacks per game in his first six starts, went 36-for-42 for 393 yards and four touchdowns. He distributed the ball to 10 receivers, though the dynamite duo of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate combined for 15 catches and 208 yards.
Wisconsin’s offense was never going to threaten the best defense in the country — the Badgers gained just 144 total yards and took just nine snaps in Ohio State territory (yards gained in those snaps: 6) — so there was no downside to stretching Sayin out a bit. He averaged only 10.9 yards per completion, and Smith is still averaging just 9.4 yards per catch and 6.9 yards per target against power-conference opponents. For that matter, the Buckeyes’ run game is producing almost no explosive plays, but one assumes the passing game will provide more than enough explosiveness if it’s ever asked to, especially as Sayin, the redshirt freshman, grows in confidence.
Of course, we might have to wait a while to confirm that. Ohio State gets a bye week, then four straight games against teams with losing records (Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers). Three of those games are at home, and three of those opponents rank worse than 65th in SP+. Anyone craving a glimpse at fifth-gear Ohio State is probably going to have to wait at least another month.
In part because of how quickly SP+ was saying Indiana was really good in 2024, I feel like I’ve been in the front car of the Hoosiers bandwagon for a while now. And even I have found myself wondering if or when they might begin to look a bit more mortal, to drop a hint that they might be dealing with extra pressure and expectations. It would be normal and forgivable if it happened, and when Aidan Chiles and Nick Marsh connected to give Michigan State a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter in front of 55,165 in Bloomington, I thought we might be encountering such a moment.
Nope. The Hoosiers ripped off a 75-yard touchdown drive, forced a punt, drove 80 yards for another touchdown and, after a halftime weather delay, drove 75 and 68 yards for two more touchdowns to put away a 38-13 win. Fernando Mendoza was nearly perfect once again, engineering five TD drives in five tries before a turnover on downs ended the streak early in the fourth quarter. He went 24-for-28 for 332 yards and four touchdowns, and stars Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt caught 12 passes for 185 yards and three of the scores. The Indiana defense had a poor game by its standards, allowing six Michigan State drives to finish in IU territory, but the Hoosiers still haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this season.
Even if your brain has been slow to completely grasp this — mine evidently has, despite my best efforts — there’s absolutely no reason to think of Indiana as anything but an elite team that will play like an elite team most of the time. And if that remains true, then go ahead and pencil the Hoosiers into the Big Ten championship game: Their five remaining games are against three teams ranked 65th or worse in SP+ and two (Maryland and Penn State) who are a combined 0-7 since Week 4.
We entered Week 8 with five teams looking at odds of 25% or higher to finish 12-0: Ohio State, Texas Tech, Indiana, Memphis and Miami. Three of them lost; the other two — Ohio State (now 49%) and Indiana (45%) — are on a collision course to meet in Indianapolis.
Don’t trust: The ACC
All of it. The entire conference is untrustworthy at this point. There were eight games involving ACC teams in Week 8; four produced upsets, three on the favorite’s home field, and two others nearly did. Stanford beat Florida State as a 17.5-point underdog, Louisville (+10.5) won at Miami, SMU (+5.5) won at Clemson in a game altered by multiple quarterback injuries and Georgia Tech (+3.5) won at Duke 27-18 in a game impacted heavily by a 95-yard Omar Daniels fumble return score.
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Omar Daniels takes Duke fumble 95 yards to the house
Georgia Tech strikes first as Omar Daniels recovers a Duke fumble and returns it 95 yards for the touchdown.
Oh yeah, and Cal nearly lost as an 8.5-point home favorite against previously hapless North Carolina, and Virginia (-16.5) needed a late Washington State implosion to beat the Cougars 22-20 at home. In all, only Pitt’s 30-13 win over Syracuse — the Panthers have genuinely gone to a new level since installing freshman Mason Heintschel at quarterback (though he admittedly didn’t do much Saturday) — and collapsing Boston College’s 38-23 loss to UConn produced what you might call expected outcomes, though UConn’s winning margin was larger than anticipated.
As one would expect, such a wacky week shuffled the conference title odds a good amount.
ACC title odds, per SP+:
Georgia Tech (7-0, 4-0 ACC): 26.9% (up 9.2%)
Louisville (5-1, 2-1): 16.8% (up 6.5%)
Miami (5-1, 1-1): 13.4% (down 17.3%)
Virginia (6-1, 3-0): 12.9% (up 1.9%)
SMU (5-2, 3-0): 12.9% (up 5.8%)
Pitt (5-2, 3-1): 8.3% (up 2.5%)
Duke (4-3, 3-1): 7.3% (down 7.7%)
Cal (5-2, 2-1): 1.0% (up 0.4%)
SP+ pinpointed Miami as more of a top-15 team than an elite one weeks ago, and as such, the Hurricanes could struggle in road trips against SMU (which has won three in a row) and the aforementioned Pitt in a series that has produced upsets in five of the past nine meetings. Louisville’s offense isn’t quite trustworthy yet, but the Cardinals have only one more SP+ top-40 opponent on the schedule (No. 37 SMU).
Virginia and SMU still have mulligans to spend — both are unbeaten in conference play — as does Georgia Tech, which remains unbeaten overall and has moved into the ACC driver’s seat. But as fun as the Tech story is, it’s hard to trust the Yellow Jackets, who, despite having not yet faced an SP+ top-40 team, have needed three one-score victories to remain unbeaten and rank only 29th in points per drive on offense and 53rd on defense. They’re 28th in SP+, behind Miami and Louisville and only narrowly ahead of Pitt, SMU and a quickly deteriorating Florida State.
Translation: This race probably has a few more plot twists to go. The spirit of the ACC Coastal division lives. Trust no one.
For what I believe was the first time since it expanded to 16 teams last year, the SEC had eight conference games going on the same Saturday. Two went to overtime, and others were decided by two, three, seven and eight points.
When we talk about parity in college football, we’re directing a lot of that at the SEC. It currently doesn’t have a team within six points of Ohio State in the SP+ ratings, but its top 10 teams are within five points of each other. All are ranked between fifth and 19th nationally, and even with Alabama bolting out ahead of the pack, we’re still looking at eight teams with at least a 5% chance at the conference title.
SEC title odds, per SP+:
Alabama (6-1, 4-0 SEC): 25.8% (up 7.0%)
Texas A&M (7-0, 4-0): 17.6% (up 3.1%)
Georgia (6-1, 4-1): 13.9% (up 3.4%)
Oklahoma (6-1, 2-1): 10.4% (up 2.7%)
Texas (5-2, 2-1): 7.7% (up 1.2%)
Missouri (6-1, 2-1): 7.4% (up 1.5%)
Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1): 7.1% (down 9.1%)
Vanderbilt (6-1, 2-1): 5.5% (up 1.8%)
Alabama indeed eased out in front thanks to Saturday’s 37-20 win over Tennessee. Who knows how the game might have played out if Zabien Brown hadn’t picked off a Joey Aguilar pass at the goal line and taken it 99 yards for a touchdown as the first half expired — instead of a 16-14 or 16-10 halftime lead for Bama, it was 23-7. But the Tide once again got the two things they have come to rely on: red zone stops from the defense and just the right plays from Ty Simpson.
In Bama’s current run of four straight wins over ranked foes, opposing teams have scored touchdowns on just seven of 14 red zone trips, with three turnovers, a turnover on downs and only one field goal among the seven failures. The Tide are just 58th in yards allowed per play and 66th in success rate allowed, but they’re 22nd in scoring defense. That’s a tenuous balance, and we’ll see what happens against Oklahoma or anyone they might face in the SEC championship game or CFP, but it’s working well for now.
It works even better since they know they’ll get what they need from Simpson. That Week 1 defeat at Florida State grows more baffling by the week, but since then Simpson ranks seventh in Total QBR with a 74% completion rate, a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and a 52% success rate on third and fourth down (national average on those downs: 40%). He’s also the only guy this season who has outdueled Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. Simpson has earned our trust, although I’m still willing to cast a suspicious glance toward the defense.
Trust: Georgia’s toughness
I’m also struggling to trust quite a few aspects of Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs. They struggled to run efficiently against either of the two good defenses they’ve faced, they continue to lack in the big-play department, and while they’ve played against three top-15 offenses, per SP+, we still expect a Smart defense to rank higher than 49th in points allowed per drive or 48th in success rate allowed.
Still, you have to admire the Dawgs’ flair for the moment. They spotted Tennessee a 14-point lead in the first quarter, Auburn a 10-point lead in the first, Alabama a 14-point lead in the second and Ole Miss a nine-point lead in the third, and yet, the only team they lost to was Bama. (And it looked like they were going to win that one, too, until Bama’s defensive red zone magic struck.) Against Auburn’s awesome defense in Week 7, they eventually figured out a way to eke out 20 points and a road win; against Ole Miss’ awesome offense in Week 8, they allowed five straight touchdowns to start the game but stayed within pecking distance and then suddenly locked the Rebels all the way down. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss went 1-for-10 passing during a fourth quarter in which Georgia outgained the Rebels 143-13 and outscored them 17-0. The result: yet another comeback win 43-35.
When the Bulldogs need to score 40-plus, they do it. When they need to hold an opponent to 10, they do it. It would be awfully boring if, in this year of epic SEC parity — when Texas A&M, Missouri, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt all have at least a puncher’s chance at the crown — we got another Georgia-Bama conference title game. But it’s pretty damn hard to think we won’t at this point, isn’t it?
Don’t trust: Arch Manning and Texas’ offense
I called Ohio State’s defense the best in the country above, and I certainly believe it is. SP+, however, still leans toward Texas, which held the Buckeyes to 14 points in the season opener and has allowed only one opponent to score more than that. The Longhorns rank fourth in points allowed per drive and 10th in yards allowed per play — quite possibly the second-best defense in the sport to my eyes.
Despite the defense, however, and despite a potentially key tiebreaker win over Oklahoma last week, Texas is only fifth on the SEC title odds list above, just ahead of Missouri and behind those Sooners. You already know the reason, of course: an offense that ranks 74th in yards per play, 88th in points per drive, 101st in success rate (80th rushing, 110th passing) and 116th in percentage of plays gaining zero or negative yards. On 46.5% of their pass attempts this season, they’d have been as well or better off just spiking the ball into the ground; that “spike factor” ranks 120th.
I don’t bring this up to heap further scorn on Arch Manning, or at least not to specifically do that. The preseason Heisman favorite hasn’t gotten any of the help he needed this season, and he certainly didn’t in Saturday night’s 16-13 win over Kentucky. His running backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry in Lexington, and his first 25 pass attempts produced just eight completions and three sacks. He did complete four straight short passes late, but Texas gained just 179 yards against a Wildcats defense that allowed 461 yards to Eastern Michigan in mid-September.
The Longhorns survived when Kentucky foolishly called two straight halfback dives into the teeth of Texas’ enormous defensive line and turned the ball over on downs in overtime, setting up Mason Shipley’s game-winning field goal. But this offense is still failing to clear an increasingly low bar. It has underachieved against SP+ projections in five of seven games and needed a special teams touchdown to overachieve its projection against Oklahoma last week.
No matter how good the defense may be, it’s going to face four of the nation’s top 15 offenses (per SP+) in its last five games, and the offense is going to face three defenses that grade out better than Kentucky’s. If it can’t help Manning, and Manning can’t help himself and start to improve — a hard thing to do midstream, especially when your issues seem to be pretty fundamental things such as footwork, pocket timing and accuracy — then how exactly does Texas end up with a playoff résumé? Things could be worse; the Horns could have easily lost to UK. But it’s hard to see things getting much better.
I’m not sure my trust is going to be enough. At 5-2 with no serious résumé-building win opportunities left, it sure seems like Notre Dame will be at or near the bottom of a pile of hypothetical two-loss teams even if it gets to 10-2 at the end of the regular season. There’s no shame in losing to Miami and Texas A&M — teams that are a combined 12-1 — by four combined points, as the Irish did, and their list of quality wins just isn’t going to end up being all that impressive even if USC, Saturday night’s victim, keeps playing well.
For this conversation, however, that doesn’t really matter. All that matters is that this is one of the five best teams in the country right now, and I’m growing to trust the Irish considerably. (Well, everything but their place-kicking anyway.) They’ve overachieved against SP+ projections over the last five games by an average of 14.9 points. And even though quarterback CJ Carr had a poor game Saturday — 16-for-26 for 136 yards, a TD, an interception, a sack and a 32.8 Total QBR — they still overachieved against their offensive projections thanks to a 228-yard rushing performance from Jeremiyah Love, his first genuine breakout game of the year, and an 87-yard performance with a kick return score from backup Jadarian Price.
Combine a high-end offense with a defense that seems to have completely solved itself over the last month, and you’ve got a hell of a team. After allowing 32.7 points per game in Chris Ash’s first three games as coordinator, the Irish have since allowed just 12.8 per game despite playing USC (first in offensive SP+), Arkansas (fifth) and Boise State (25th), and despite dealing with injuries to stars such as corner Leonard Moore and tackle Gabriel Rubio. USC had scored at least 31 points in every game before Saturday and came to South Bend averaging 8.3 yards per play; the Trojans managed just 24 points and 5.6 yards per play against the Irish.
Thanks primarily to the early defensive struggles, the Irish were 21st in SP+ after three games. They’re now sixth after seven games. Only one remaining game is projected within 17 points, per SP+, and if they make the CFP they could do some serious damage. We’ll have to see what fate has in store in that regard.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Temple: up 4.5 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 88th to 72nd)
Florida International: up 4.3 points (from 130th to 124th)
James Madison: up 3.6 points (from 59th to 47th)
Central Michigan: up 3.5 points (from 125th to 114th)
Oregon State: up 3.5 points (from 114th to 106th)
After losing to Delaware and UConn by a combined 89-26, FIU unleashed a nearly perfect performance out of nowhere Tuesday, heading up to Western Kentucky and winning 25-6. James Madison, meanwhile, knocked Old Dominion out in a delightful Saturday slugfest, scoring 42 straight points to turn a 27-21 deficit into a 63-27 rout.
But we need to talk about Temple for a second: The Owls hadn’t topped three wins since 2019, watching their meticulously rebuilt program crumble to the ground in the 2020s. But then they hired KC Keeler. It might have been the best hire of last offseason. The 66-year-old has them at 4-3 following Saturday’s 49-14 blowout of Charlotte.
Temple hasn’t had the athleticism to keep up with high-level power-conference opponents — Oklahoma and Georgia Tech beat the Owls by a combined 87-27 — but against teams in their weight class, they’re 4-1, having overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 19.4 points and having lost only to unbeaten Navy in the last minute. What a turnaround.
Here are the five power-conference teams that rose the most:
Minnesota: up 3.1 points (from 57th to 49th)
UCF: up 3.0 points (from 58th to 51st)
Cincinnati: up 1.8 points (from 30th to 25th)
Stanford: up 1.7 points (from 108th to 101st)
North Carolina: up 1.6 points (from 103rd to 98th)
Minnesota sure does love playing Nebraska. The Gophers pummeled the Huskers on Friday night 24-6 to move to 5-2 on the season. Without that ghastly egg-laying loss at Cal in Week 3, they’d be ranked and looking at a potential 9-3 finish or so.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
UTSA: down 5.0 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 61st to 71st)
Tennessee: down 4.0 points (from 11th to 18th)
Rutgers: down 3.8 points (from 50th to 67th)
Nebraska: down 3.7 points (from 20th to 26th)
West Virginia: down 3.6 points (from 80th to 97th)
Memphis: down 3.5 points (from 24th to 30th)
Northern Illinois: down 3.3 points (from 118th to 127th)
South Carolina: down 3.3 points (from 40th to 52nd)
USC: down 2.9 points (from 14th to 16th)
Clemson: down 2.8 points (from 39th to 46th)
There’s no great shame in losing at Alabama, but Tennessee’s slippage here has been a long time coming: The Vols have now underachieved against projections for five straight games, and they’ve done so by double digits in each of the past two. The defense, which finished sixth in defensive SP+ last season, has underachieved in every game and is down to 44th, and while the offense propped the Vols up for a while, it has also underachieved the past two weeks. Continued underachievement at that level would put them in danger of losing at Kentucky this coming week.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, nine for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (26-for-31 passing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 59 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss).
2. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (24-for-28 passing for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards against Michigan State).
3. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (24 carries for 228 yards and a touchdown, plus 37 receiving yards against USC).
4. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (36-for-42 passing for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns against Wisconsin).
5. Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (17-for-25 passing for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 165 non-sack rushing yards and 4 TDs against Old Dominion).
6. Taylen Green, Arkansas (19-for-32 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 131 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Texas A&M).
7. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14-for-22 passing for 160 yards and a touchdown, plus 94 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against LSU).
8. Colin Simmons, Texas (4 tackles, 3 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Kentucky).
9. Dylan Riley, Boise State (15 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown against UNLV).
10. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (14-for-21 passing for 205 yards, plus 120 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Duke).
It was tempting to just give each of the top three names a share of No. 1 for the week. Love’s domination of USC was vital to Notre Dame’s playoff hopes (and really fun to watch), and Mendoza was ridiculous yet again — his Total QBR has now topped 90.0 in four of the past five games, and he’s completing 74% of his passes with a 21-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. Kurtis Rourke was so good for the Hoosiers last season, and Mendoza is raising the bar.
I had to give No. 1 to Stockton, though. He had to be great for the Dawgs to keep up with Ole Miss, and when the Georgia defense finally showed up, Stockton raised his game even further. Awesome stuff.
Honorable mention:
Byrum Brown, USF (14-for-24 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 123 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Florida Atlantic).
Zabien Brown, Alabama (seven tackles and a 99-yard pick-six against Tennessee).
Anthony Hankerson, Oregon State (25 carries for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns against Lafayette).
Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (18 carries for 133 yards, plus 90 receiving yards against UTSA).
Brad Jackson, Texas State (26-for-38 passing for 444 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 77 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Marshall).
Nick Minicucci, Delaware (32-for-50 passing for 422 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 non-sack rushing yards against Jacksonville State).
Dante Moore, Oregon (15-for-20 passing for 290 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 49 non-sack rushing yards against Rutgers).
Kejon Owens, Florida International (22 carries for 195 yards and a touchdown, plus seven receiving yards against Western Kentucky).
(By the way, a quick shoutout to Curry College’s Montie Quinn, who broke the Division III record with 522 rushing yards … on 20 carries! The Colonels beat Nichols 71-27, and his seven touchdowns alone gained 399 yards, including jaunts of 85, 84, 76, 64 and 58 yards.)
Through eight weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
3T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
3T. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (19)
6T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
6T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (16)
8. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)
For the first time all season, the points race and the current Heisman betting odds have begun to match up. Six of the above names are also in the top 10 per ESPN BET: Mendoza (No. 1 betting favorite), Simpson (No. 2), Sayin (No. 3), Stockton (No. 5), Pavia (No. 8) and Chambliss (No. 9T).
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1 and 2. Stanford 20, Florida State 13 and California 21, North Carolina 18 (Friday). We had matching last-minute goal-line stands in the Bay Area, though Stanford-FSU gets the edge for adding in a mini-Hail Mary (to get to the Stanford 9 with two seconds left) and an untimed down following a pass interference call (which followed an errant snap). And are we sure Gavin Sawchuk didn’t make it to the end zone? One of the most unique finishes you’ll see.
W under the lights 🌲
Stanford held on for a 20-13 win over FSU, sealing it with a goal-line stop. Cole Tabb and CJ Williams came up big on offense@StanfordFball | @GoStanford | #GoStanford pic.twitter.com/cFJMlnHbnn
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) October 19, 2025
Cal, meanwhile, merely forced a fumble millimeters before the end zone with four minutes left. Boring.
0:48
Cal forces UNC fumble at the goal line for a touchback
Cal’s Brent Austin punches the ball out of Nathan Leacock’s hands at the goal line to force a fumble and subsequent touchback.
3. FCS: East Texas A&M 52, Incarnate Word 45. With 6:45 left, East Texas A&M took its first lead 45-42 after trailing by as many as 21 earlier in the game.
With 1:55 left, UIW’s Will Faris hit a 57-yard field goal to tie the game at 45-45.
With 0:27 left, ETAMU not only scored the winning points but did so with one of the most physical runs of the week.
EJ OAKMON POWERS HIS WAY!! @LIONS_FB LEADS UIW WITH 27 SECONDS TO PLAY! pic.twitter.com/7Efeaclppo
— Southland Conference (@SouthlandSports) October 19, 2025
Hot damn, EJ Oakmon.
4. Louisville 24, No. 2 Miami 21 (Friday). Louisville’s offense hasn’t carried its weight at times this year, but the Cardinals scripted out two early touchdowns and got a beautiful, 36-yard burst from Chris Bell. The defense took it from there. T.J. Capers‘ interception — the Cardinals’ fourth of Carson Beck — clinched the upset and sent the ACC race into chaos.
5. FCS: Lamar 23, UT Rio Grande Valley 21. UT Rio Grande Valley is 5-2 in its debut season; the Vaqueros have acquitted themselves well, and they almost took down a ranked Lamar team in Beaumont with two fourth-quarter touchdowns. But Ben Woodard nailed a 57-yard field goal with 1:03 left, and Mar Mar Evans picked off a desperate Eddie Lee Marburger pass with 14 seconds left. Lamar survived.
6. No. 9 Georgia 43, No. 5 Ole Miss 35. I almost just assumed that Ole Miss would score late and send this one to overtime. Alas. A heavyweight matchup in a heavyweight environment.
7. Tulane 24, Army 17. I reflexively made the Chris Berman “WHOOOP” sound when this happened.
Look at this catch by @shazzpreston7!!!#RollWave 🌊 pic.twitter.com/Ufc4nUZ7lq
— Tulane Football (@GreenWaveFB) October 18, 2025
8. Arizona State 26, No. 7 Texas Tech 22. Texas Tech backup quarterback Will Hammond finally looked like a backup, but the Red Raiders overcame a number of miscues to take the lead with two minutes left, only for ASU to respond with a 10-play, 75-yard drive capped by Raleek Brown‘s last-minute touchdown.
9. TCU 42, Baylor 36. One of many games with lengthy weather delays, this one almost saw a three-minute, 21-point comeback. TCU led 42-21, but Keaton Thomas returned a fumble for a touchdown, Sawyer Robertson completed a 35-yard touchdown to Kole Wilson, and Baylor recovered an onside kick with 30 seconds left. But Namdi Obiazor picked Robertson off near midfield, and the Horned Frogs survived.
10. UAB 31, No. 22 Memphis 24. You get points for creativity, Memphis. After Greg Desrosiers Jr. had his game-tying, 41-yard touchdown disallowed — replay determined he was down just short of the goal line — Memphis proceeded to commit two false starts and a delay of game, and backup quarterback AJ Hill‘s fourth-down pass to Cortez Braham Jr. was incomplete by inches. I’ve never seen a team lose a game like that.
11. Division II: Benedict 31, Edward Waters 27.
12. UCLA 20, Maryland 17.
14. FCS: Chattanooga 42, ETSU 38.
15. Marshall 40, Texas State 37 (2OT).
16. No. 16 Missouri 23, Auburn 17 (OT).
18. Division III: No. 14 John Carroll 31, No. 11 DePauw 27.
19. NAIA: Faulkner 36, Cumberlands 35.
20. Florida 23, Mississippi State 21
It says a lot about the week that we had two SEC overtime games, and neither made the top 15.
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