Relief for Rishi Sunak as he avoids damaging defeat on Rwanda bill

Published

5 months ago

December 12, 2023

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Rishi Sunak has avoided a damaging Tory rebellion over his flagship Rwanda bill in a crunch vote in the Commons.

The totemic legislation, which aims to revive the stalled £290m deportation scheme after the Supreme Court ruled it unlawful, has been backed by MPs at its second reading by 313 votes to 269, a majority of 44.

Follow live: Reaction and fallout to MPs’ vote on Rwanda bill

The result will come as a huge relief to the prime minister, who spent today holding crisis talks with various factions of the Tory right to persuade them to back the bill.

The division list showed 37 Tories abstained but none voted against it, despite swathes of them trashing the legislation in recent days and former immigration minister Robert Jenrick even resigning because he did not think it was tough enough.

However, it means another battle is likely further down the line given the hardliners who abstained are demanding amendments to tighten the plan by blocking interference from foreign courts – something moderates from the opposite wing have said they will not support.

The bill seeks to declare in UK law that Rwanda is a safe country to send asylum seekers to, and stop flights being grounded for legal reasons by allowing ministers to disapply sections of the UK’s Human Rights Act (though not the European Convention on Human Rights, which some on the right are calling for).

Moments before MPs started voting, dozens of Tory hardliners from the so-called “five families” factions said they did not support the plan and the bulk of them would abstain tonight.

They said they will aim to table amendments in the new year which should “materially improve the bill and remove some of its weaknesses” – and warned they could vote down the legislation at its third reading if these changes aren’t made.

Bill ‘goes to the edge of what’s acceptable’

That means Mr Sunak could face a fight on his hands in January when the bill comes back before parliament.

Downing Street said it was prepared to listen to proposed changes from MPs at a later stage but Home Secretary James Cleverly suggested in the Commons that the legislation was already close to the limits of what would be possible.

The One Nation caucus of around 100 moderate MPs have also said they won’t support the bill if it becomes more hardline.

Damien Green, the chairman of the group, told Sky News the legislation currently “goes to the very edge of what’s acceptable in terms of meeting our international obligations and the rule of law”.

He said he wanted the legislation to proceed “unamended” and his faction would only accept “very minor” changes.

Rwanda has also told the UK government it will withdraw from the treaty if the UK were to breach its “international obligations”.

However Tory rebels remained firm in their position after the vote, with a source saying: “This bill has been allowed to live another day but without amendments it will be killed next month. It’s now up to the government to decide what it wants to do.”

The PM has won the battle but the deeper civil war will rage on

His authority stretched to snapping point, the prime minister saved himself from freefall on Tuesday night after winning the vote on his emergency Rwanda legislation with a majority of 44.

All day there were whispers of it being on a knife edge and might only scrape through. When MPs representing the five Tory grouping on the right of the party said they’d advised members to abstain, it was a nervy moment. In the end 37 MPs abstained – and the prime mInister won the day.

Anything else didn’t bear contemplating: A loss at second reading – where MPs debate the principle of a piece of legislation, rather than the nuts of bolts of a bill, is extremely rare: the last time it happened was to Margaret Thatcher nearly 40 years ago over Sunday trading laws.

There is no doubt huge relief tonight in Downing Street as Rishi Sunak’s Christmas nightmare turned into a Christmas reprieve.

His supporters have their tails up, with Damian Green, the chair of the One Nation group, telling me that the majority showed the PM didn’t need to amend this bill for it to live. His message to the PM was the face the rebels down and keep the legislation as it is.

But, on the other side of the party, the message from right wingers as the House of Commons cleared out was clear. Mark Francois, the chair of the ERG Brexiteer group told me simply that MPs were willing to take on the PM and would be amending the bill in the New Year.

Another senior rebel figure put it like this: “This bill has been allowed to live another day. But without amendments it will be killed next month. It’s now up to the government to decide what it wants to do.”

To put it another way, this could very much prove a pyrrhic victory come the new year: The prime minister has was won this battle but the deeper civil war in the party over what to do about Rwanda will rage on, and when this when it comes to who will triumph, all bets still off

PM: ‘We can stop the boats’

Despite a fresh row likely in the new year, ministers were buoyed by the result of the vote tonight.

Given the government’s working majority of 56, a revolt by 29 Tory MPs, or 57 abstentions, would have been required to defeat the bill at its first Commons hurdle – something that has not happened to a piece of legislation since 1986.

There appeared to be nerves in Downing Street this morning with climate change minister Graham Stuart flown back from last-ditch talks at the Cop28 summit in Dubai to vote for the legislation.

But the outcome proved more comfortable than initially feared for Rishi Sunak.

The prime minister wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that he will now work to make the bill law “so that we can get flights going to Rwanda and stop the boats”.

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Mr Cleverly said: “Parliament has spoken. We must be able to choose who comes to our country – not criminal gangs. That’s what this bill will deliver.”

‘Tory civil war continuing’

But Labour said despite the victory the situation showed the “Conservatives’ civil war is continuing”.

Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “Today’s debate shows how weak Rishi Sunak is with this Tory psychodrama now dragging on into the New Year.

“The costs of the failing Rwanda scheme are apparently rising to £400 million of taxpayers’ money, while no one has yet been sent and this scheme is only likely to cover less than 1% of those arriving in the UK.

“They’ve broken the Tory Party, broken the asylum system and broken every promise they have made to the British people. Britain deserves better than this.”

She called on the government to scrap the scheme and use the money to crack down on criminal gangs and reduce the asylum backlog – something Labour has vowed to do if it wins the next election.

Politics

Local elections: How key places are predicted to vote on Thursday – and what it could mean for general election

Published

1 hour ago

April 30, 2024

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Local elections: How key places are predicted to vote on Thursday - and what it could mean for general election

More than 2,600 seats are up for election in 107 English councils on Thursday.

Now, YouGov has made its final calls for some key contests using the MRP polling method after interviewing almost 9,000 people over two weeks.

Here, exclusively on Sky News, are the headlines. We’ll start with two key battlegrounds:

Labour HQ will be very happy that YouGov says they will go red.

Hyndburn is a red wall council that has proved sticky in recent council elections. Milton Keynes is also a great political bellwether – Labour needs to be doing well here in the general election.

Then there are races that are more of a toss-up – councils that might change hands but YouGov says the races are too close to make a firm prediction.

Norwich and Tamworth are two places where Labour looks like they’re building momentum in both councils, but it’s too close to call.

Winning Norwich would be pretty seismic for Labour, given it only has one target seat, Norwich North. To be doing well in a general election, Labour only needs not to be going backwards.

Reigate is an exceptional council – local difficulties and defections in recent years make it easier to win back.

YouGov says there will also be parties possibly losing control of councils.

Lib Dem control of Hull in Yorkshire and Tory control of Walsall in the West Midlands are both on the edge – and both are big contests.

Hull in Yorkshire is where Labour is snapping at the Lib Dem’s heels. Lib Dems tell me they are worried but they’ve always just about held on in the past – it’s quite a rare head-to-head between these two.

Walsall really matters, not only because there’s a key general election seat here. But also because it’s where we will all be watching to see how much Reform UK – which is fielding candidates in 15 of the 20 wards – eats into the Tory vote and what impact that has.

Now, Thursday is not just about councils maybe changing hands. We want to know where voting patterns are changing significantly and who’s got momentum – and who hasn’t.

The big story of the night will be measuring Labour advances – and here’s where YouGov says that’s happening.

So that’s Labour momentum in the South – Milton Keynes and Thurrock; the East – Peterborough; the Midlands – Walsall – and the North.

North East Lincolnshire covers Grimsby and Cleethorpes where Sky has its target towns project, so you’re seeing lots of coverage of that race. Labour will be pleased with this – showing they’re competitive in the places they need.

And you can also see where Labour is also advancing – but YouGov says that advance is less strong.

Again, this list has areas from all around the country.

Top is Hyndburn – which you saw earlier may as a council fall Labour hands, but it’s doing so with more modest Labour momentum.

It’s a place – and places like it – that matter so much that Labour might want to be doing a bit better.

By contrast, Rugby and Tamworth are lower down the list Labour needs to worry about when they’re considering the general election. If Tories are losing there – it’s total wipe out.

Finally, here’s where YouGov projects Labour is not advancing – or where the Tories are doing okay.

The big picture in several of these is there are more parties than Labour who benefit when the Tory vote declines, including the Lib Dems.

But little change in Colchester is a small warning bell for Labour – at the general election here they need to overturn a majority of 10,000. If this happens on the night, they’ll be asking why. And Reigate, which as we said before saw defections, is predicted to have some Tory gains.

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Much of the local elections will be dominated by the mayoral contests – the biggest names standing.

But big personalities can mean politics in these races looking very different to the rest of the country.

What happens in the council elections will be poured over in far more detail, particularly by Labour, desperate to write a story that ends up with them winning at the general election.