CFB Player Rank: Top 100 players of the 2023 season
The best player in college football is always an arbitrary choice. Is it the guy who won the Heisman Trophy? Jayden Daniels is surely deserving. Is it the player who’s carried his team to the highest point? Michael Penix Jr.’s performance in the Allstate Sugar Bowl was legendary. Or is it the player who’ll likely go first in the NFL draft? Caleb Williams was awesome in 2023 — even if his defense was not. The answer is always up for debate, but ESPN’s staff of college football writers weighed in to come up with not just the nation’s best player — but a ranking of the top 100 players of the 2023 season. It’s a list guaranteed to have you nodding in agreement with each flawless pick. –David Hale
Methodology: Voters were presented with a series of one-on-one votes. For example, “Who should be ranked higher following the 2023 season: Jayden Daniels or Michael Penix Jr.?” Think of it as an Oklahoma drill of statistical reasoning. More than 10,000 votes later, these are the results.
Jump to: 1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50
51-60 | 61-70 | 71-80 | 81-90 | 91-100
QB, LSU, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,812 yards, 40 TD, 4 INT, 10 rushing TD
Preseason ranking: 15
On his way to winning the Heisman Trophy, Daniels led the country with 4,946 yards in total offense (nearly 600 yards more than the next-closest player) and accounted for 50 touchdowns (40 passing and 10 rushing). Daniels joined Johnny Manziel as the only two players in SEC history to pass for 3,500 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the same season.
QB, Washington, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 4,648 yards, 35 TD, 9 INT
Preseason ranking: 6
In his second year with Washington, Penix had one of the greatest seasons in program history, finishing second in the Heisman Trophy voting and leading the Huskies to a 13-0 record and the Pac-12 title, and he also won the Maxwell Award, presented to the best player in college football.
WR, Ohio State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 67 rec, 1,211 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: 3
Harrison, the Biletnikoff Award winner, became the first receiver in Ohio State history to record consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. He caught 67 passes for 1,211 yards and 14 touchdowns for the Big Ten’s best offense (425.0 total YPG). Harrison is No. 2 on Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board.
QB, Oregon, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 4,508 yards, 45 TD, 3 INT
Preseason ranking: 14
Nix was sensational for the Ducks, especially in Pac-12 play, as he earned him first-team All-Pac-12 and was named the conference’s Offensive Player of the Year. The Auburn transfer ranked second in QBR (91.2) behind only Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, and threw 45 touchdown passes to just three interceptions while being sacked just five times.
TE, Georgia, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 56 rec, 714 yards, 6 TD
Preseason ranking: 2
The first two-time winner of the Mackey Award as the sport’s best tight end, Bowers proved this past season that he not only runs faster and blocks better than others — he also heals faster. After TightRope surgery to repair a high ankle sprain, Bowers returned to action 26 days later. He had 56 catches for 714 yards with six touchdowns in 10 games.
WR, LSU, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 89 rec, 1,569 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: 37
Nabers, who became LSU’s career leader in receptions, tied for third this season among Power 5 players with 89 catches. He led the country with an average of 120.7 receiving yards per game and tied for third with 14 touchdown catches while finishing second to Marvin Harrison Jr. for the Biletnikoff Award as the top receiver in college football.
WR, Washington, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,553 yards, 13 TD
Preseason ranking: 20
The Washington wideout may not have been the winner of the Biletnikoff Award, but he had a season worthy of such recognition. Odunze was arguably the best player for the Huskies all season long, tallying 1,553 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging more than 17 yards a catch through the CFP semifinal. Whenever quarterback Michael Penix Jr. needed to make a key throw in a crucial moment, you could bet the ball was going to be headed Odunze’s way.
OLB, Alabama, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 10 sacks, 28 solo tackles
Preseason ranking: 28
Turner was named the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year by the league’s coaches. The 6-4, 252-pound junior leads Alabama with 14.5 tackles for loss and also recorded 10 sacks. Turner became the 41st player under Nick Saban at Alabama to earn consensus All-America honors.
OL, Notre Dame, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: allowed 3 pressures, 1 sack while missing 3 run blocks
Preseason ranking: 11
A year ago, Alt was Pro Football Focus’ top-graded offensive tackle. So, what did he do for a follow-up in 2023? He was, once again, the top-graded offensive tackle. Alt helped protect Sam Hartman and open run lanes for Audric Estime, and for the season, Alt allowed just three pressures and one sack while missing three run blocks total.
QB, USC, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,633 yards, 30 TD, 5 INT
Preseason ranking: 1
It was disappointing season overall for the Trojans, but that came despite another standout year for Williams, who remains the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. Williams threw for 3,633 yards with 30 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. He added 11 rushing touchdowns.
RB, Oklahoma State, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 285 car, 1,732 yards, 21 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Gordon broke out this year, becoming a unanimous All-American, the Doak Walker Award winner and Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year after running for 1,732 yards and 21 TDs in the season. He had more than 250 scrimmage yards against Kansas, West Virginia and Cincinnati, the only FBS player in the past 10 years to do so in three straight games.
QB, Florida State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,756 yards, 20 TD, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: 8
The numbers tell a convincing story of Travis’ 2023 season: 27 total touchdowns, just shy of 3,000 yards and only two turnovers all season on an undefeated team. But much as FSU fans might hate it, the ultimate compliment came from the CFP committee, which essentially said Travis was irreplaceable. It wasn’t wrong. No player had more of an impact on dragging FSU from the brink of the abyss in 2020 to the brink of perfection in 2023 than Travis.
LB, NC State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 6 sacks, 3 INT, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: 81
Wilson was, quite possibly, the best all-around defender in college football in 2023. He finished the regular season with 138 tackles (tops in the ACC, second in Power 5), six sacks, 17.5 tackles for loss, 10 QB hurries, six pass breakups, two fumble recoveries and three interceptions (including one returned for a TD). Basically if there’s a category on the defensive stat sheet, Wilson filled it this season.
DL, UCLA, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 13 sacks, 2 FF, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: 49
Latu won the Lombardi Award after leading the nation in tackles for loss per game (1.8) and ranked third win 13 sacks. He was part of a defense that ranked No. 16 nationally in scoring defense (18.4) and No. 12 in total defense (301.5 yards per game) in the regular season.
WR, Missouri, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 86 rec, 1,212 yards, 9 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The former five-star prospect blossomed as a sophomore and put together the best season for a Mizzou receiver since 2009: 83 catches, 1,197 yards and nine touchdowns. His five straight 100-yard receiving games drove Mizzou’s early unbeaten start, and he was instrumental in the Tigers’ first major bowl bid since 2013.
RB, Missouri, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 276 car, 1,627 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Schrader walked on at Mizzou after rushing for 2,000 yards at Division II’s Truman State, and after a solid 2022 campaign, he became one of the nation’s best backs in 2023. He rushed for 1,499 yards and 13 touchdowns and averaged 196.4 yards from scrimmage over Mizzou’s final five regular-season games.
DL, Texas, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 45 total tackles, 2 sacks
Preseason ranking: NR
The 6-4, 362-pound intimidator brought home the first Outland Trophy for Texas in 46 seasons, leading a defense that allowed just 80.9 rushing yards per game, fourth-best nationally. Despite facing double-teams all year, Sweat did it all, finishing with 45 tackles and two sacks. He also blocked a kick and caught a TD pass in the Big 12 championship game.
QB, Alabama, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 2,834 yards, 23 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
One of the most improved players in the country, Milroe threw for 23 touchdowns, ran for another 12 and turned the ball over just six times this season as he lead the Tide to a 27-24 win over Georgia in the SEC championship game. Milroe ended the year with an 80.3 QBR.
CB, Iowa, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 26 solo tackles, 2 INT, 5 PD
Preseason ranking: 46
A vital piece of an Iowa defense that does a lot of things right, DeJean, No. 13 on Kiper’s Big Board, was the linchpin. DeJean, a unanimous All-American, recorded 41 tackles (26 solo), two interceptions and five passes defended for the country’s fifth-best defense (274.8 YPG).
OL, Penn State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: No sacks allowed in 382 pass-block snaps
Preseason ranking: 16
Fashanu bypassed a chance to be a potential first-round selection in 2023 to come back to Penn State for one more season. Led by Fashanu, eighth overall on Kiper’s Big Board, the Nittany Lions’ offensive line helped the team average 186.7 rushing yards — tops in the Big Ten.
DB, Michigan, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2 FF, 5 INT, 6 PD
Preseason ranking: NR
Sainristil made the transition from wide receiver to defensive back look easy for one of the best defenses in the country. He was a first-team All-Big Ten after recording 36 tackles (20 solo) with four tackles for loss, five interceptions and six passes defended.
QB, Georgia, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,941 yards, 24 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Beck had the unenviable position of replacing former Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett, who led the Bulldogs to back-to-back national titles in 2021 and 2022. All Beck did in his first season was complete 72.4% of his passes for 3,941 yards with 24 touchdowns and six picks. Georgia went 13-1 after a 63-3 win in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
ILB, Texas A&M, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 8 sacks, 2 FF, 83 total tackles
Preseason ranking: NR
One of the few bright spots in another disappointing Texas A&M season, Cooper was Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated FBS linebacker with a 91.7 grade. He was the only linebacker to grade higher than 85 in run defense, coverage and rushing the quarterback. He had 83 tackles, eight sacks and two forced fumbles.
CB, Alabama, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 24 solo tackles, 7 PD
Preseason ranking: 12
McKinstry has been an integral part of Alabama’s secondary since his freshman season. One of the top coverage cornerbacks in the country, the 6-1, 195-pound junior recorded 24 solo tackles this season and broke up seven passes. He’s No. 22 on Kiper’s Big Board.
S, Notre Dame, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 30 solo tackles, 1 FF, 7 INT, 4 PD
Preseason ranking: NR
Sometimes interceptions don’t tell an accurate story of a defender’s impact, but in Watts’ case, his FBS-best seven picks only underscore just how exceptional he was throughout 2023. He recorded 52 total tackles (30 solo) and had four passes defensed.
WR, Oregon, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 81 rec, 1,383 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The explosive receiver ranked third in FBS with 14 touchdown receptions during a season in which he finished with 81 catches for 1,383 yards (No. 6 in the country in total yards). He was particularly good in Pac-12 play, with six 100-yard receiving games in six conference games. He had at least four catches in all but one game this season with the exception being a two-catch game in USC with 147 yards.
DL, Illinois, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 26 solo tackles, 7.5 sacks, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: 35
Newton, the 2023 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, recorded 52 tackles (26 solo) with 8.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks for Illinois this season. Newton, who was a Nagurski Trophy finalist, is 16th overall on Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board for 2024.
QB, Oklahoma, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,660 yards, 30 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: 60
Gabriel has already moved on to Oregon, but he cemented his place as an Oklahoma legend when he became the first OU QB with at least 250 passing yards and 100 rushing yards against Texas, driving the Sooners 75 yards in 1:02 and threw a 3-yard TD pass to Nic Anderson with 15 seconds left in a 34-30 win. He passed for 3,660 yards, 30 TDs and 6 INTs and ran for 373 yards and 12 touchdowns.
DE, Florida State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats:
Preseason ranking: 9
Verse’s two years at FSU were remarkable by any measure, but it was his final two games after the Jordan Travis injury that solidified his status as a Noles legend. Against Florida and Louisville, he had 58 pass rushes, 13 pressures, 4.5 sacks, 20 tackles (11 at/behind the line), three QB hurries and one forced fumble, while opponents averaged just 2.7 yards per play (1.7 on the ground) when Verse was on the field.
WR, LSU, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,177 yards, 17 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Thomas and Malik Nabers teamed to form one of the most prolific pass-catching tandem in the country. Thomas’ 17 touchdown catches leads all FBS players, and he averaged 17.3 yards per catch. Thomas also had eight catches of 40 yards or longer.
QB, Arizona, Freshman
Notable 2023 stats: 2,869 yards, 25 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Had Fifita began the season as the Wildcats starter, he might have wound up as a serious Heisman Trophy candidate. That’s how good he was over the final two months of the season, leading Arizona to wins in its final six games of the year. He finished the year with 25 touchdowns and recorded a 83.7 QBR, placing him in the top 10 in the country in that stat.
CB, Alabama, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 40 solo tackles, 1 FF, 5 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Arnold was one of Alabama’s most versatile defenders this season and lined up at a couple of different spots in the secondary when other players were injured. He leads the Crimson Tide with five interceptions and also had 6.5 tackles for loss to lead all Alabama defensive backs.
Michigan QB, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,851 yards, 22 TD, 4 INT
Preseason ranking: 39
McCarthy, a finalist for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, was the point person for a Michigan offense that helped the team return to the College Football Playoff. McCarthy has thrown for 2,851 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions and has a QBR of 89.5.
QB, North Carolina, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 3,608 yards, 24 TD, 9 INT
Preseason ranking: 5
Despite a new offensive coordinator and playbook, plus a more balanced split with his ground game, Maye remained exceptional in 2023, accounting for 33 touchdowns and more than 4,000 yards of total offense. Maye wrapped his UNC career an 81.0 Total QBR, 79 touchdowns and more than 9,500 yards — enough to be in the conversation for the top spot in the 2024 NFL draft.
CB, Colorado, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 3 INT on defense, 5 TD on offense
Preseason ranking: 70
A true two-way threat, Hunter was a key player for the Buffaloes at receiver and corner, playing a majority of the team’s snap on both sides. In nine games, he finished with 57 catches for 721 yards receiving and five touchdowns, with three interceptions.
OL, Kansas State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 1 sack allowed in 456 pass-block snaps
Preseason ranking: 27
Kansas State’s first Outland Trophy finalist, Beebe started 48 games for the Wildcats, allowing just one sack since 2021. This year, playing mostly left guard, he helped power a run game that averaged 204 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.
RB, Texas, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 1,139 yards, 10 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Brooks stepped into big shoes, replacing Bijan Robinson as Texas’ starter, and despite tearing his ACL late in the season against TCU, ran for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games, which ranked sixth in the FBS in rushing yards and seventh in rushing yards per game (113.9 YPG). He had eight straight games with at least 98 rushing yards, including 218 against Kansas on Sept. 30. In the Big 12 Championship win over Oklahoma State, coach Steve Sarkisian sent him out to get the ball on the last play of the game to commemorate his role in getting there.
LB, Clemson, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 5.5 sacks, 2 FF, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: 21
Trotter was the physical and emotional leader of a Clemson defense that ranked second in efficiency in 2023. He led the Tigers with 88 tackles and 15 tackles for loss, along with 5.5 sacks, two INTs, two forced fumbles, 10 QB hurries and five pass breakups. It’s enough to ensure he’ll be among the first linebackers off the board in the 2024 NFL draft.
S, Alabama, Freshman
Notable 2023 stats: 70 solo tackles, 1 FF, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
A starter from the outset of the season, Downs lived up to his billing as one of the top recruits in the country and played well beyond his years as a true freshman. He led the Crimson Tide with 107 total tackles, forced a fumble and also has two interceptions and a punt return for a touchdown.
OL, Oregon State, Junior
Notable 2023 stat: OSU offense averaged 426.9 total yards (180.8 YPG rushing) in regular season
Preseason ranking: NR
A first-team All-Pac-12 selection on the offensive line, Fuaga received several All-American nods after guiding one of the country’s best position groups. The Beavers’ line allowed just 15 sacks and, as a run-blocker, Fuaga earned the country’s best grade from Pro Football Focus.
OL, Michigan, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 4 blown blocks, not whistled for any penalties
Preseason ranking: 19
Zinter was named a unanimous first-team All-American this season after being the go-to guy on Michigan’s well-regarded offensive line, making sure things ran smoothly for J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum and crew. The Wolverines’ offense averaged 161.8 rushing yards a game, which finished sixth in the Big Ten.
UL, Oregon, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 0 sacks allowed in 469 pass block attempts
Preseason ranking: NR
There’s a reason Powers Johnson is headed to the NFL draft. The Ducks’ center was an anchor for their offense as he guarded quarterback Bo Nix and the helped fuel the team’s running to perfection. His work was aptly recognized this season as Powers-Johnson was awarded the 2023 Rimington Trophy, which recognizes the most outstanding center in college football.
C, Georgia, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 0.9 pressure pct allowed
Preseason ranking: 41
One of the best centers in the FBS, Van Pran was a steadying force on a Georgia offensive line that dealt with myriad injuries. Perhaps the greatest attestment to Van Pran’s importance was that he started 43 straight games. The Bulldogs went 41-2 in those games. He won the SEC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy and was a finalist for the Rimington Award, given to the top center in the FBS.
RB, Notre Dame, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,341 yards, 18 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
One of the most physical runners in the country, Estime racked up 1,341 yards on the ground (12th nationally) and scored 18 times. His 12.6% broken-tackle rate was among the best in the Power 5, which helped him to rack up 799 yards after contact this season, the eighth most nationally and fourth best among Power 5 backs.
LB, Ohio State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 40 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: 47
Eichenberg recorded 80 tackles (40 solo), leading the team while playing in only 10 games this season for the Buckeyes. In three games (Western Kentucky, Maryland and Rutgers), he tallied double-digit tackles — with his 13 against Maryland a season high. The Buckeyes had the third-best defense in the FBS (259.9 YPG).
RB, Michigan, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,111 yards, 25 TD
Preseason ranking: 7
Corum led all running backs with 25 touchdowns, finding the end zone at least twice in nine different games for Michigan. The two-time Ameche-Dayne Big Ten Running Back of the Year recipient averaged 4.7 yards per carry.
RB, Boise State, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 1,347 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Arguably no non-quarterback did more for an FBS offense than Jeanty, who was thrust into action after an early-season injury to George Holani. He finished with 1,347 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, and added 569 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 43 receptions. Jeanty led the FBS in average yards from scrimmage (159.7 YPG). The best news for Boise State? He will be back in 2024.
CB, Missouri, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 38 solo tackles, 1 FF, 4 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
A stalwart for a physical Mizzou defense, Abrams-Draine allowed only a 37% completion rate and a 28.4 QBR as primary coverage guy. He picked off four passes, broke up 11 more, and proved his physicality with 2.5 tackles for loss, a run stuff and a pair of pressures on six pass rushes.
MLB, Alabama, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 32 solo tackles, 3 sacks
Preseason ranking: NR
Lawson was sidelined for three games with injuries, but he was able to fight his way back into the lineup and become a key part of Alabama’s defense from his inside linebacker spot. He finished the season with 67 total tackles, including 5.5 tackles for loss and three sacks.
DT, Alabama, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 29 solo tackles, 7 sacks
Preseason ranking: NR
After suffering a spinal/neck injury after four games in 2022, Eboigbe wasn’t sure if he’d ever get to play football again. He not only worked his way back, but he was one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the FBS. He finished with 63 tackles, 11½ tackles for loss and seven sacks in 2023.
RB, Oregon, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,180 yards, 11 TD
Preseason ranking: 77
Irving was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection for the Ducks and rushed for 1,180 yards with 11 touchdowns. He rushed for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games against Washington and Washington State in the middle of the seasons and is a vital cog in one of the most explosive scoring offenses in the country.
QB, Washington State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,735 yards, 25 TD, 7 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Ward became one of the top transfer targets in college football after passing for 3,735 yards, ranking No. 7 in FBS. The former Incarnate Word quarterback was at his best against Oregon State early in the season, when he threw for 404 yards and four touchdowns in what was a top-25 matchup at the time.
WR, Ole Miss, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 985 yards, 8 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The former Louisiana Tech transfer had an immediate impact at Ole Miss, leading the Rebels with 851 receiving yards on 47 catches with eight scores. Harris made the biggest impact in two of Ole Miss’ biggest wins with 153 receiving yards on eight catches in a 55-49 victory against LSU and 11-for-213 in a 38-35 win against Texas A&M.
WR, Florida State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 50 rec, 658 yards, 11 TD
Preseason ranking: 86
Coleman could be frustratingly inconsistent at times in 2023, but when he was clicking, he was borderline unstoppable. His 9 catches, 122 yards and 3 touchdown receptions in the opener against LSU set the tone for Florida State’s season, and he was nearly as impactful in wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech. For the year, he finished with 50 catches for 658 yards and 11 scores, adding another 300 yards as a punt returner.
WR, Virginia, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 110 rec, 1,426 yards, 9 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Among the most impactful transfers in the country, Washington used his one season at Virginia to demolish ACC defensive backs. He led the country with 110 catches in the regular season, finished third in receiving yards (1,426) and added nine touchdowns, despite Virginia using three different QBs throughout 2023.
WR, Texas, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,014 yards, 5 TD
Preseason ranking: 59
Worthy led the team in receiving yards with 1,014 yards on 75 catches, adding five touchdowns. His presence allowed transfer Adonai Mitchell to add another 845 yards and 11 TDs opposite him, with Mitchell saying it’s wild how much attention the speedy Worthy draws. Worthy was also a catalyst on special teams, with 371 yards on punt returns this season, including a 74-yard return TD against BYU.
S, Georgia, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 31 solo tackles, 3 INT, 7 PD
Preseason ranking: 40
It takes a pretty special freshman to start 14 games on Georgia’s defense, and that’s what Starks did in 2022. He was just as good this past season with 52 total tackles, 7 passes defended and 3 interceptions. He was a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy as the sport’s top defender.
CB, Clemson, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 2 INT, 2 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
Wiggins earned first-team All-ACC honors after emerging as one of the best cornerbacks in the country, with a team-high 9 pass breakups, 2 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions and 25 total tackles. His best game might have come against North Carolina, when he had eight tackles, forced a fumble on the goal line to prevent a touchdown and had a game-sealing interception on Drake Maye. Wiggins has already declared for the NFL draft. Kiper currently lists Wiggins as the No. 2 cornerback available.
DB, Georgia, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 46 solo tackles, 4 INT, 2 sacks
Preseason ranking: NR
Foot and knee injuries prevented Smith from making a big impact at Georgia after he transferred from West Virginia in 2021. The senior safety saved his best for last, as he piled up 70 total tackles, 8½ tackles for loss, 4 interceptions and 2 sacks this past season. Smith’s versatility was invaluable for the UGA defense.
LB, Old Dominion, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 167 total tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
The prolific tackler who led the FBS with 189 tackles in 2022 continued to pile up stops for ODU. Henderson was second in the nation with 167 tackles, and he earned second-team AP All-America honors after receiving a host of All-America accolades last season. His career tackles-per-game average of 12.1 ranks third in FBS history, trailing only Boston College’s Luke Kuechly and Maryland’s E.J. Henderson.
RB, Florida State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 905 yards, 14 TD
Preseason ranking: 69
Benson rushed for 905 yards and 14 touchdowns this past season, earning second-team All-ACC honors. With Jordan Travis out for the season, Benson saved his best for the final two games. In a 24-15 win at Florida, Benson ran for 95 yards — including three rushing touchdowns. Then in the ACC championship game against Louisville, Benson had 67 yards rushing to take pressure off third-string quarterback Brock Glenn. Benson is the only ACC player with two games with three rushing TDs in 2023.
RB, Texas Tech, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,541 yards, 10 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
After an 0-2 start, Tech rebounded to win seven games by handing the ball to Brooks. Over the final 11 games, Brooks averaged 24.6 carries and 130.2 yards. He finished with 1,541 yards, and the Red Raiders won six of his eight 100-yard games. The best news? He’s returning in 2024.
LB, Florida State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 33 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
A first-team All-ACC selection, DeLoach took a star turn his senior season for the Seminoles — with 68 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery. He had the most important defensive play of the season against Clemson, when he sacked Cade Klubnik, forced a fumble, recovered it and returned it for a touchdown to tie the game in the third quarter. Florida State eventually won in overtime and finished the regular season undefeated.
RB, North Carolina, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 253 car, 1,504 yards, 15 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
A finalist for the Doak Walker Award, Hampton earned first-team All-ACC honors after a breakout sophomore season. Among FBS running backs, Hampton ranks fifth in rushing yards (1,504). In all, Hampton had seven 100-yard rushing games this season as he recorded 15 rushing touchdowns.
WR, South Carolina, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 71 rec, 1,255 yards, 7 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Legette played quarterback in high school, and it took him a while to get comfortable at receiver at South Carolina. After catching 42 passes in his first four seasons combined, Legette exploded as a fifth-year senior in 2023. He was second in the SEC with 1,255 receiving yards and third with 71 catches to go with seven scores.
LB, Iowa, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 79 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Higgins, a Butkus Award semifinalist, was a first-team All-Big Ten selection for a stingy Iowa defense that spearheaded a 10-win regular season. His 171 tackles (79 solo) this season led the Big Ten, ranked second nationally and was the most by a player from a Power 5 conference.
LB, North Carolina, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 121 total tackles, 5 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: 64
The first-team All-ACC selection continued his dominance in 2023, with 121 total tackles — second most in the ACC and ranked in the top 20 nationally. In addition, he has 11 tackles for loss, 7 quarterback pressures, 4 pass breakups, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and 1 interception. Gray has declared for the NFL draft and opted out of the bowl game. Kiper has him ranked as the No. 6 off-ball linebacker available.
QB, Tulane, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,406 yards, 22 TD, 5 INT
Preseason ranking: 99
Few Group of 5 quarterbacks perform as well — or remain at the level — as long as Pratt did at Tulane, which nearly repeated as AAC champion and as a New Year’s Six bowl participant. Pratt eclipsed 2,300 passing yards and 20 touchdowns for the third consecutive season and posted a career-best completion percentage of 65.4. He became Tulane’s career passing leader with 9,603 yards and earned AAC Offensive Player of the Year honors.
QB, Colorado, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 3,230 yards, 27 TD, 3 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Sanders — and really, the entire Colorado team in general — experienced the highest of highs and lowest of lows this season. Behind an offensive line that gave him less and less protection as the year went on, Sanders threw for 3,230 yards and 27 touchdowns. In what was a noisy rebuilding year for the Buffs, Sanders stood out in singular moments but also showed that both he and Colorado have a ways to go.
RB, Washington, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 222 car, 1,162 yards, 16 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
While plenty of deserved noise surrounded Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze all year, Johnson’s back half of the season ensured that he would be mentioned among his teammates when discussing the Huskies’ potent offense. The running back from Mississippi has 1,162 yards on the ground and 16 touchdowns as Washington is heading to the CFP National Championship game, and his biggest performances came in statement fashion: 256 yards and four touchdowns against USC late in the year and 152 yards and two touchdowns in Washington’s Pac-12 title game victory over Oregon.
QB, Kansas State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,643 yards, 24 TD, 10 INT
Preseason ranking: 87
In his first full season as K-State’s starter, Howard threw for 2,643 yards, rushed for 455 more (not including sacks) and produced 33 combined TDs. He produced a QBR of 82 or higher in half his games, and the Wildcats went 6-0 and averaged 43 points per game when he did so.
DE, Utah Utes, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 23 solo tackles, 12 sacks, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
What was an uncharacteristic down year for the Utes this past season was not at all that for Eliss, who made his presence known nationally with 12 sacks on the year (seventh in the nation) as well as 37 tackles and one forced fumble. In a year without Cameron Rising, Elliss was the Utes’ best player.
DE, James Madison, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 15.5 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
He finished the season second in the nation in sacks (15.5) and second in tackles for loss (20) before a knee injury cut his exceptional season short in November. Green needed just five sacks to break Elvis Dumervil’s single-season FBS record. He added 7 quarterback hurries, a pick-six and 2 forced fumbles for a ferocious JMU defensive front. Despite missing the final month, Green earned first-team AP All-America honors.
LB, Mississippi State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 10 sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Watson ranked ninth nationally in tackles (137) and also had 10 sacks to add. He had five games with double-digit tackles, and among the nation’s top 20 tacklers, his five missed tackles were easily the fewest. He did his best to carry a flawed Bulldogs squad.
RB, Kentucky, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 199 car, 1,452 total yards, 21 total TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The Vanderbilt transfer made one of the season’s biggest early statements, rushing for 280 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-14 blowout of Florida in September, and he finished his year in Lexington with 1,452 total yards (1,129 receiving) and 21 touchdowns (14 receiving).
OT, Missouri, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2.1 pressure allowed pct.
Preseason ranking: NR
The Missouri offensive line took a huge step forward in 2023, and Foster’s nearly flawless play at left tackle was a huge reason why. He allowed just nine pressures, with three holding penalties and only seven blown run blocks, in 13 games. He’s in Mel Kiper’s top 10 for 2024 tackle draft prospects.
QB, New Mexico State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,973 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Along with coach Jerry Kill, Pavia became the face of New Mexico State’s renaissance, which led to consecutive bowl appearances and 18 wins, including a historic road upset of Auburn on Nov. 18. Pavia more than doubled his passing output from last season to finish with 2,973 yards, and doubled his touchdown passes total to 26. He also led the team in rushing touchdowns (7) and was NMSU’s leading rusher in seven games.
DE, Louisville, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 23 solo tackles, 11 sacks, 3 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
Gillotte had 11 sacks this season — ranking No. 9 in the nation — and the most at Louisville since Devonte Fields had 11 in 2015. Gillotte picked up first team All-ACC honors after also notching a career-high 45 tackles, a team-high 14.5 tackles for loss and 3 forced fumbles. Gillotte has already announced he will return to Louisville for his senior season.
LB, Texas, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 47 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: 88
Texas’ leading tackler the past two seasons, Ford had 101 total tackles with 10.5 tackles for loss, adding one sack and two interceptions. Ford, a vocal leader at linebacker for the Longhorns, was a first-team All-Big 12 selection and a semifinalist for the Butkus Award.
CB, Virginia Tech, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 25 tackles, 3 INT, 8 PD
Preseason ranking: NR
Strong emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the ACC this past season, with eight pass breakups and three interceptions. Strong led the nation in lowest completion percentage allowed, and was second in yards per target. He has announced he will return to the Hokies for next season.
Edge, North Carolina, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 34 solo tackles, 8.5 sacks, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
Rucker had his best season for the Tar Heels, ranking third in the ACC with 8.5 sacks and had a team-high 61 total tackles. He also forced and recovered a fumble against Clemson, but UNC ended up losing that game. Though the North Carolina defense faltered in the final month of the season, Rucker remained one of the key standouts.
LB, Oklahoma State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 45 solo tackles, 6 sacks, 4 FF
Preseason ranking: 75
After 11.5 sacks as a freshman in 2021, Oliver moved from the defensive line to linebacker in OSU’s new 3-3-5 defense this year, becoming an every-down player with 73 tackles, 6 sacks, 5 passes defensed and 4 forced fumbles, including 4 tackles, 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble in a 39-32 win over Kansas on Oct. 14. He was named to the All-Big 12 second team.
WR, USC, Freshman
Notable 2023 stats: 1,164 all-purpose yards, 5 total TD
Preseason ranking: NR
Branch’s inaugural season struck the college football world like a lightning bolt when he debuted with 232 all-purpose yards, a 96-yard kickoff return for a score and one receiving touchdown on nine touches in his first game. Even if he — and USC — tapered off as the season progressed, Branch still had a handful of electric moments on his way to 1,164 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns in his freshman year.
LB, Michigan, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 40 solo tackles
Preseason ranking: 56
Colson was a Lott IMPACT Trophy finalist and a second-team All-Big Ten selection. He led Michigan in tackles for a second consecutive season after recording 89 tackles (40 solo) as part of the nation’s second-best defense (239.7 YPG).
RB, Texas State, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 1,331 yards, 10 TD
Preseason ranking: NR
The 5-9 transfer from Houston Christian sparked Texas State’s offense in coach G.J. Kinne’s first season. Mahdi was a threat every time he touched the ball, not only averaging 6.0 yards per rush but also 25.6 yards on kickoff returns, with a 100-yard touchdown against Southern Miss. He earned first-team All-Sun Belt honors as an all-purpose star and made several All-America teams as well.
RB, Kansas, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 1,280 yards, 16 TD
Preseason ranking: 79
In 11 starts this year, Neal ran for 1,280 yards, fourth most in Kansas single-season history, and 16 TDs, second most in a season. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry and had six 100-yard games on the season. Against UCF, he had a 75-yard TD run. The 5-11, 215-pounder has started 31 career games for the Jayhawks.
S, USC, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 42 solo tackles, 2 INT, 7 PD
Preseason ranking: 63
It was not exactly a banner year for USC’s defense, but Bullock — who was an All-American last season — remained a strong presence in the Trojans’ secondary. Bullock finished the year with 61 tackles, 7 pass deflections and 2 interceptions, which was a regression from his stellar 2022 season.
S, Utah, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 60 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Utah’s defense continues to recruit, develop and show off its incredible defensive identity under Kyle Whittingham through guys such as Bishop. As the Utes’ calling card had to be their defense this season, the junior safety did a little bit of everything, racking up 60 tackles, 2 interceptions and 1 forced fumble.
LB, Oklahoma, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 51 solo tackles, 3, sacks, 2 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: 52
Stutsman, the Sooners’ leader on defense, led OU in tackles for the second straight year, with 104 total stops, adding 3 sacks, an interception and 2 forced fumbles despite missing half of the Kansas game and all of the Oklahoma State game, both OU losses. He was named a third-team AP All-American and is bypassing the NFL draft and returning to Oklahoma next season, big news for the Sooners.
QB, Texas, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 3,479 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Ewers made a big leap this season, throwing for 3,479 yards and 22 TDs to six INTs, completing 69% of his throws. He led Texas to a huge win in Tuscaloosa, going 24-of-38 for 349 yards and three TDs in a 34-24 win over then-No. 3 Alabama in a game that went a long way toward getting the Longhorns into the College Football Playoff. But those 452 yards and four TDs in the Big 12 title game against Oklahoma State didn’t hurt, either.
QB, Liberty, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 2,876 yards 32 TD, 6 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
After starting four games in 2022, Salter blossomed under first-year coach Jamey Chadwell, helping Liberty to its first undefeated regular season, a Conference USA title and its first New Year’s Six bowl berth. He earned Conference USA MVP honors after recording 11 games with multiple touchdown passes, four games with multiple rushing touchdowns and seven games with at least 225 passing yards. A Maxwell Award semifinalist, Salter led Conference USA in passing efficiency and passing touchdowns, and ranked second in rushing touchdowns.
RB, Oregon State, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 1,185 yards, 9 TD
Preseason ranking: 95
Martinez nearly helped pull off a late-season upset of title-game participant Washington when he rushed for 123 yards and two touchdowns in a 22-20 Huskies win. After rushing for 982 yards in 2022, he went over the 1,000-yard mark this year and has 2,167 yards and 16 scores in his two seasons in Corvallis.
RB, Ohio State, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 156 car, 926 yards, 11 TD
Preseason ranking: 33
Even though Henderson missed three games because of injury, he still led Ohio State in rushing with 926 yards and 11 touchdowns. He scored multiple touchdowns in three games (Youngstown State, Western Kentucky and Minnesota) and found pay dirt in eight of the nine games he played for the Buckeyes.
DE, Miami, Freshman
Notable 2023 stats: 7.5 sacks, 3 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
The ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year made an immediate impact as a true freshman, wreaking havoc from the edge. Bain started the final 10 games of the season, finishing with 44 tackles — the most among Miami defensive linemen. In addition, he was tied for first on the team with 7.5 sacks.
DE, Colorado State, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 13 sacks, 2 FF, 56 total tackles
Preseason ranking: NR
The Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year was among the nation’s most consistently disruptive pass-rushers in 2023, leading the league in both sacks (13) and tackles for loss (17), and ranking in the top 10 nationally in averages for both categories. He recorded sacks in each of CSU’s first five games, punctuating the stretch with three against Utah State. Kamara finished his career with 30.5 sacks and 45.5 tackles for loss.
RB, Wisconsin, Junior
Notable 2023 stats: 984 yards, 12 TD
Preseason ranking: 31
Allen was third in the Big Ten in rushing (984 yards) and second in touchdowns (12) for Wisconsin. Allen went over the 100-yard mark five times this season, led by a 165-yard effort in a win over Minnesota. He was a second-team All-Big Ten honoree.
CB, Kentucky, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 53 solo tackles, 1 FF, 5 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
A sure tackler and a ball hawk, Hairston picked off five passes, broke up six more and nearly scored as many touchdowns (two from pick-sixes) as he allowed (3). His 89% tackle success rate is about as good as you’ll see from a cornerback in space, too.
LB, UTSA, Sophomore
Notable 2023 stats: 14 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Preseason ranking: NR
After setting a team record for tackles for loss as a redshirt freshman (18), Moore set his sights on another milestone. He piled up 14 sacks, a UTSA record and a half-sack shy of the AAC record, in the Roadrunners’ first season in the league. Moore earned AAC Defensive Player of the Year honors and finished with 45 tackles, including 17.5 for loss, before entering the transfer portal.
QB, Notre Dame, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 2,689 yards, 26 TD, 8 INT
Preseason ranking: 25
Hartman transferred to the Irish from Wake Forest for his final season, and it was not without its share of ups and downs. Hartman finished with 2,689 yards passing, 24 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on the season and some big performances in key wins — including on the road at Duke. But Hartman also struggled in losses to Louisville and Clemson, throwing a combined five interceptions.
OLB, Alabama, Senior
Notable 2023 stats: 8 sacks, 3 FF, 1 INT
Preseason ranking: NR
Dallas Turner wasn’t the only edge defender on Alabama’s team that wreaked havoc this season. Braswell, a 6-3, 255-pound senior, was second to Turner with eight sacks. His three forced fumbles led the Tide, and he also had a 28-yard interception return for a touchdown against Mississippi State.
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Bradford Doolittle
Something has to change.
Of course, much has already changed since we last convened with our final preseason projections. But for each MLB team, playing five weeks of a new season will inevitably expose additional shifts that are needed. Every team, no matter how splendid or how dreadful the start, has something.
One thing the forecasts suggested that has borne out so far is the relative levels of stratification between the leagues. The National League, led by the champion Dodgers, looked top-heavy, and while not all of the teams we thought would make up that elite tier are a perfect match with the forecasts, the overall dynamic is very much one of dominance. Meanwhile, the American League figured to be a whole bunch of teams in spitting distance of break even, with little separation among the top 12-13 teams in the circuit.
How will these dynamics hold up until we Stock Watch again in June?
Each team’s ability, or lack thereof, to make the following changes might determine that.
Win average: 104.5 (Last: 102.4, 1st)
In the playoffs: 98.8% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 28.5% (Last: 28.4%)
What must change: Rotation health
There were actually some bumpy moments in the early weeks of the season for the Dodgers but nothing has happened to really knock them out of the favorite’s perch as we think ahead to late October. One thing that could change that is L.A.’s ever-growing injured list, especially its collection of 60-day IL assignments. For all the depth the Dodgers seemed to build up in their rotation over the winter, they’ve still gone with two bullpen games already. And this doesn’t even include Shohei Ohtani, who’s still building up so he can take his turns in the rotation. Given their recent history of starter injuries … maybe he shouldn’t? Including the two openers, the Dodgers have already had 10 different pitchers start games.
Win average: 96.0 (Last: 90.2, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 88.6% (Last: 73.5%)
Champions: 10.5% (Last: 6.0%)
What must change: Middle relief instability
There hasn’t been much to complain about with the Mets. Though New York hasn’t overtaken the Dodgers in the simulations from a going-forward perspective, the Mets have probably been the better team to this point. The Dodgers have the better winning percentage, but the Mets’ Pythagorean pace (109.7) is the National League’s best. With not much to nitpick about, the relief contingent in front of Edwin Diaz needs to coalesce a little more. Ryne Stanek has the pen’s second-highest average leverage index but has struggled, and the two top lefties (A.J. Minter and Danny Young) have already been lost to injury. Still, if this is a team’s biggest worry at the beginning of May, it’s in a good place.
Win average: 95.8 (Last: 84.3, 13th)
In the playoffs: 92.7% (Last: 51.2%)
Champions: 7.8% (Last: 1.5%)
What must change: Ninth-inning drama
The Cubs have mostly bludgeoned their opposition so far with a breakout offense that ranks among baseball’s best in pretty much every major category. Assuming Chicago won’t average over six runs per game all season, eventually its thin bullpen is going to move into the spotlight. The Cubs have blown seven of their first 15 save opportunities. Closer Ryan Pressly has managed to white-knuckle his way through most of his outings but has struck out fewer than four batters per nine innings, with more walks than K’s. Overall, Chicago’s relievers rank 28th in swing-and-miss percentage, underscoring the general lack of dominance in that unit. The Cubs have been strong in every other facet but for them to establish themselves as a true front-runner, the relief leaks will need to be shored up.
Win average: 93.7 (Last: 83.0, 16th)
In the playoffs: 91.7% (Last: 41.2%)
Champions: 10.1% (Last: 1.8%)
What must change: Shortstop play
You hate to pick on Trey Sweeney, who accounts for most of Detroit’s starts at shortstop, but there just aren’t many shortcomings for the Tigers so far. No team has improved its forecast more since the start of the season. Detroit is now landing a No. 1 playoff seed more often than any other AL team in the simulations, though the Yankees’ pennant odds are still a tick better because of a higher baseline. (New York has a lower regular-season win forecast because of schedule differences.) Sweeney hasn’t hit (.234/.317/.355)* and the Tigers’ shortstop defensive rating, per FanGraphs, ranks 20th. It’s the most obvious blemish on what is shaping up as a pristine season in Detroit.
* These numbers were .202/.282/.303 entering Sunday, but Sweeney must have had spies watching over my shoulder. Against the Angels, he went 4-for-5 with a homer and six RBIs. That’s more like it.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 84.5, 12th)
In the playoffs: 76.9% (Last: 44.4%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 1.8%)
What must change: Lineup depth
The Padres are off to a great start, largely on the strength of a bullpen that has been off the charts. The relievers have racked up 14 saves (they’ve blown only one) and 27 holds while compiling a collective 1.73 ERA. Those numbers are both unbelievable and unsustainable. When some regression sets in, a top-heavy lineup will need to get production from spots like catcher (21st in OPS) and left field (27th) to offset the difference. We kind of knew this was how the Padres were constructed, but still — San Diego has given too many plate appearances to too many players in what we’ll call the post-productive phases of their careers.
Win average: 91.4 (Last: 84.3, 13th)
In the playoffs: 85.4% (Last: 46.8%)
Champions: 8.1% (Last: 2.5%)
What must change: First base production
Generally speaking, the more specific the issue we choose to worry about, the better off the team. For Seattle, the primary concern the past couple of years has been more wide-lens than specific: offense. For now, that problem has apparently been largely solved. The Mariners’ offense has been one of the hottest in baseball and over the past couple of weeks, with its hitters even managing to mash at T-Mobile Park. So rather than worrying about the offense, writ large, we can point out that at first base, the Rowdy Tellez–Donovan Solano combo is mostly responsible for Seattle’s .518 OPS (tied for 29th in MLB) at the position. This projected to be a major hole before the season, so the chances of self-correction are limited. Now, the stakes are higher to shore up the weak spots, since the Mariners have emerged as the early front-runner to win the AL West.
Win average: 90.8 (Last: 88.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 84.5% (Last: 68.3%)
Champions: 9.3% (Last: 6.5%)
What must change: Rotation depth chart
For a first-place team, there is plenty to worry about when it comes to the Yankees. They’ve had the best position player (Aaron Judge, by far) and arguably the best pitcher (Max Fried) in baseball. The relief staff has dealt with the struggles of demoted closer Devin Williams, but the bullpen still ranks sixth in relief ERA and with only 14% of inherited runners scoring. But the rotation has been below average (4.07 ERA and only eight quality starts) despite Fried’s great beginning. Even worse, with Gerrit Cole out for the season and Luis Gil and Marcus Stroman currently on the shelf, it’s not immediately clear how this is going to get better. This issue might really start to mushroom if and when Fried regresses from his hot start.
Win average: 90.3 (Last: 89.2, 4th)
In the playoffs: 66.2% (Last: 68.9%)
Champions: 4.1% (Last: 4.8%)
What must change: Slumping stalwarts
The Phillies’ roster was constructed on star power, not depth, and while that has worked well enough the past few years, they need the stars to produce. The “it’s still early” caveat applies, but so far, Bryce Harper hasn’t hit like Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm‘s production has gone missing, Aaron Nola just earned his first win but remains under league average (91 ERA+) and key bullpen acquisition Jordan Romano has gotten shelled. If the Phillies don’t want to lose sight of the front-running Mets in the NL East race, they’ll need their main cogs to start firing.
Win average: 89.7 (Last: 79.9, 20th)
In the playoffs: 59.7% (Last: 24.6%)
Champions: 2.5% (Last: 0.6%)
What must change: Team batting average
The Giants have inserted themselves into a top-heavy NL postseason chase that they didn’t figure to be a part of when the season began. The pitching and defense has been stellar, but the offense hasn’t kept up. San Francisco ranks eighth in walks percentage but 24th in batting average. That can work in a take-and-rake general approach to offense, but the Giants are only middle of the pack in homers. Since they aren’t very athletic and rarely steal bases, this leads to uneven production. The Giants can hang in contention with a league-level batting average, but they simply don’t hit enough homers to do so if they continue to hover around .230. That puts the onus on low-average hitters such as Matt Chapman (.198), LaMonte Wade Jr. (.141, ouch) and Willy Adames (.230 and now four homers after hitting two on Sunday) to up the ante.
Win average: 87.1 (Last: 87.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 44.2% (Last: 58.4%)
Champions: 1.7% (Last: 3.0%)
What must change: Bullpen health
In what’s shaping up as a historically good NL West (save for the Rockies), little problems can quickly become big ones. For the Diamondbacks, a shiny start has lost its luster a bit as they have battled bullpen problems in both the performance and health categories. The unit scuffled badly during a 5-9 stretch, posting a 5.61 collective ERA while blowing six of 10 save opportunities. Closer A.J. Puk (elbow) is on the 60-day IL and Justin Martinez (shoulder) hit the 15-day IL after two concerning outings with diminished velocity. Both are expected to help later this season but for that to matter, the likes of Kevin Ginkel, Shelby Miller and Ryan Thompson need to step up in high-leverage spots.
Win average: 86.8(Last: 88.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 66.6% (Last: 68.7%)
Champions: 3.7% (Last: 5.4%)
What must change: Homer count
It has been a mixed bag for the Astros. Hunter Brown has been one of the game’s best pitchers and Josh Hader is having a vintage season at the back of the bullpen. The relief staff, in general, has been strong. But the lineup has been below average with a lack of power at the root of the issue. No Astro has homered more than four times and Houston ranks 21st in home run and overall slugging percentage. It’s an issue up and down the lineup but things would look a lot more promising if Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez were going deep at their usual rates.
Win average: 86.7 (Last: 96.5, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 43.5% (Last: 91.1%)
Champions: 2.2% (Last: 14.4%)
What must change: IL roster
An 0-7 start threatened to sink the Braves’ season before it began. They recovered — nearly climbing to .500 at one point — but they have a lot of work to do. Hopes that the Braves can still reach their ceiling hinge on the longed-for returns of Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. In the meantime, they need underperforming stalwarts such as Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Chris Sale and Raisel Iglesias to hit their stride. Atlanta can’t keep plodding along under .500 in this year’s NL while waiting for its stars to get healthy, but if the Braves can stay above water until then, they might be able to really take off. Considering what we’ve seen so far, the fact that they won’t see the Dodgers again during the regular season certainly helps.
Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.6, 11th)
In the playoffs: 47.4% (Last: 48.8%)
Champions: 1.3% (Last: 2.3%)
What must change: Outfield production
The Royals’ offense, in general, has been missing, with only Bobby Witt Jr. producing all season. But the outfield ranks 29th in bWAR as a group — the continuation of a problem that hovered over the roster last season. MJ Melendez was sent to the minors to find himself. His initial results in Omaha suggest he’ll be searching for some time. Hunter Renfroe has produced less than a good-hitting pitcher. Mark Canha has helped in a big role and Drew Waters has had some nice moments. But the Royals need some stable offense from the corner outfielders, making this a must-get as the trade deadline starts to loom.
Win average: 82.9 (Last: 77.7, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 40.9% (Last: 19.0%)
Champions: 0.9% (Last: 0.5%)
What must change: Emmanuel Clase
You figured the Guardians’ bullpen would fall off a bit after last season’s off-the-charts showing. That has happened even though set-up relievers Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have been every bit as good as they were in 2024. No, the problem has been a mystifying start by Clase, who has already given up more runs (11) than he did all of last season (10). He already has won four games, matching a career high, but of course that’s not necessarily a good sign for a closer. Clase’s dominance was the biggest differentiator on last year’s team. The 2025 squad, which has been outscored by 23 runs despite a 20-14 record, needs him to approximate that performance.
Win average: 82.8 (Last: 84.1, 15th)
In the playoffs: 43.6% (Last: 45.6%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 2.5%)
What must change: Bullpen depth
Despite an elite offense, the Red Sox have hovered around .500 because of a thin bullpen. The relievers have blown as many saves (eight) as they’ve converted and only one team has seen a higher rate of inherited runners score. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been fine, but he hasn’t had enough situational help. Boston ranks in the middle of the pack with a 4.11 relief ERA and its 10 holds are tied for the fewest of any bullpen. The rotation has been solid, but it’ll need more support to remain that way.
Win average: 81.9 (Last: 87.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 38.1% (Last: 61.0%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 5.2%)
What must change: The offense
Even after an eight-run outburst against the division-leading Mariners on Sunday, Texas ranks 29th in run scoring. Only the Rockies have scored fewer. It’s a stunning turnaround for an offense that kept scoreboards spinning in 2023 on the way to a World Series title. Last year’s falloff was steep, and based on what we’ve seen so far, hopes for positive regression are fading. Adolis Garcia is having another down season. Marcus Semien is below replacement. And the key additions from the winter — Joc Pederson and Jake Burger — have hurt more than they’ve helped. Pederson is hitting a remarkable .094 with a .334 OPS, and Burger (.561) was sent to the minors. Not good. The Rangers’ brass has taken note: Offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker, who was with the club during its 2023 run, was fired after Sunday’s game.
Win average: 79.5 (Last: 85.1, 10th)
In the playoffs: 25.7% (Last: 52.4%)
Champions: 0.7% (Last: 2.7%)
What must change: Carlos Correa
For once, we don’t have to cite the availability of the Twins’ stars as their primary problem. That’s still an issue, too, as Royce Lewis has yet to make his season debut — but the larger problem has been the star who has stayed on the field, Correa, is off to a miserable start. He’s hitting .216 with a lone homer and a .560 OPS to begin the season, hamstringing a Twins lineup that has struggled. Everything is off, even Correa’s plate discipline, as he has walked at a rate less than half his career norm. The Twins need more to turn around than just Correa, but no one else on the roster has fallen as far below expectation as he has.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 82.9, 17th)
In the playoffs: 25.0% (Last: 39.2%)
Champions: 0.6% (Last: 1.6%)
What must change: Powerless stars
After the formerly punchless Royals hammered seven homers in Baltimore on Sunday, the Blue Jays sank to last in the majors with 23 homers. The power trio of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Anthony Santander and Bo Bichette have hit nine of those dingers between them — and that’s just not enough. Guerrero will be fine. Bichette has recovered most of the batting average he lost during last year’s .225 season, but he has homered only once. This is a player in his age-27 season who topped 20 homers in each season from 2021 to 2023. Finally, Santander has flailed during his first Toronto season, hitting four homers with a 67 OPS+. This can’t continue if the Jays are to contend.
Win average: 79.1 (Last: 79.9, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.4% (Last: 28.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)
What must change: The pitching
The Brewers are built to win on pitching and defense. Every year, they overperform their projections because of an organizational ability to find, or produce, quality pitchers. But so far, they just haven’t found enough of them in 2025. The overall run prevention has been off. In the first season after Willy Adames’ departure, the team defense has been more decent than elite. The rotation has received good work from Freddy Peralta, Jose Quintana and upstart Chad Patrick, but the falloff after that has been steep. Brandon Woodruff might return to the mix soon and that will certainly help. More troubling is Milwaukee’s normally airtight relief staff, which has struggled to finish games and strand inherited runners.
This all needs to turn around — and fast. With the Cubs emerging as a potential powerhouse in the NL Central, being an above-average team is no longer the bar to clear in the division. And it’s unlikely the Central’s second-place club is going to have a chance at a wild-card slot — not in this league.
Win average: 78.8 (Last: 80.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 22.3% (Last: 27.1%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.8%)
What must change: Home-field disadvantage
No matter what happened, this was going to be a strange season for the Rays. Playing in a minor league facility owned by a division rival was going to take some getting used to. The problem for the Rays is that they need to get used to it quickly, because of a schedule heavy on early home games. When the Rays depart for a six-game trip on June 8, they will have played nearly twice as many games in Tampa (43) as on the road (22). That means, of course, that the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule after that, which would be fine if the Rays were playing well at George M. Steinbrenner Field — but they aren’t. When the Rays return to Florida on Tuesday, they’ll be 9-13 at their temporary venue. With a lot more games in Tampa coming up, it’s an issue they need to fix fast. If they don’t, they’ll be looking at an uphill battle for playoff contention, and most of those hills will be confronted away from home.
Win average: 78.8 (Last: 75.9, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 10.6% (Last: 14.6%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.2%)
What must change: Lead protection
The Reds might be good. The pitching staff (122 ERA+) ranks third in the NL. The rotation and the bullpen have contributed even though presumed closer Alexis Diaz floundered so badly that he was sent to the minors. Emilio Pagan has been OK in Diaz’s place, but he’s better suited for set-up work. Diaz’s trouble started last season, so it’s hard to say where his trajectory is headed. Recently recalled Luis Mey has electric stuff, but he’s unproven and prone to lapses of command. However it happens, manager Terry Francona needs someone to step up to lock down the ninth because the overall pitching is contention-worthy. The lineup … well, it’s another reason why the Reds can’t afford back-of-the-bullpen inconsistency.
Win average: 77.5 (Last: 73.5, 26th)
In the playoffs: 16.1% (Last: 8.4%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)
What must change: The defense
This is shaping up as an exciting first season in Sacramento for the Athletics. The offense has been productive and looks legit, especially if rookie Nick Kurtz hits the ground running. The pitching is going to be more of a scramble, but what would help if the Athletics could field. They rank last or second to last in the leading defensive metrics. Only the Red Sox have committed more errors. Some teams can overwhelm opponents by favoring offense over defense at most positions, but the Athletics aren’t likely to be one of them. Key spots to shore up are second base and third base, positions that aren’t producing at the plate, either, so at the very least the Athletics could favor a glove.
Win average: 76.8 (Last: 81.0, 18th)
In the playoffs: 6.4% (Last: 33.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.7%)
What must change: Ryan Helsley
The Cardinals are perfectly mediocre, owning a run differential that has hovered around break even. Their record is a little worse than the expectation the so-so differential portends, largely because of a 4-5 record in one-run games — two of those coming in Sunday’s doubleheader against the Mets. This is not exclusively because of Helsley, but he has not been on his game so far with two blown saves in seven chances and walking nearly as many batters as he has struck out. The strikeout and walk rates are alarming, as they reflect what Helsley was early in his career before he ascended to All-Star status. If the mediocre Cardinals are going to do better than middling, they need their star closer to help them close out more than their share of close games. The kicker, though, is that if the Cardinals go into offload mode, this version of Helsley isn’t going to look nearly as alluring in the trade marketplace.
Win average: 75.7 (Last: 88.0, 7th)
In the playoffs: 11.7% (Last: 64.7%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 5.9%)
What must change: Right-handed hitting
No team has lost more from its preseason projection than Baltimore, so it’s very difficult to boil it down to one big thing. The problem with right-handed hitting could also be framed as a problem with hitting left-handed pitchers. The Orioles rank fifth with a .774 OPS against righties but are dead last against lefties (an anemic .502). Their righty hitters (Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Westburg, Gary Sanchez, et al.) are hitting a collective .200/.261/.319. This of course comes after the Orioles moved in the left-field fence at Camden Yards over the winter. How’s that going? Opposing righty hitters have a .972 OPS there, while their Baltimore counterparts are at .586. The visitors have outhomered Baltimore’s righty swingers 20-8 at Oriole Park.
Win average: 70.5 (Last: 67.7, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 1.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Dylan Crews
The Nationals are competitive already and often fun to watch. Actual contention seems like a longshot, though, especially given the current state of their bullpen. Still, the more long-term questions the Nationals can answer in the affirmative, the better they will be able to set themselves up for a real push in 2026. At some point, infield prospect Brady House should join the big league fray. Until that happens, eyeballs remain on Crews, the touted second-year player whose MLB career has sputtered at the beginning. Crews looked lost early, going 5-for-47 with zero extra-base hits to start. Then came a two-week splurge with four homers and a 1.026 OPS over 13 outings. He’s 1-for-21 since. More than anything, Crews needs to get off the roller coaster and enjoy a nice, prolonged run of good, solid consistency.
Win average: 66.8 (Last: 73.8, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 8.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
What must change: Roster make-up
What do I mean by “roster make-up”? Remember the glory days of April 12, when L.A. was 9-5 and it seemed its floor-raising project from the winter was going to work? Since then, the Angels have a minus-65 run differential, 14 runs worse than any other team and, yes, that includes the Rockies. And also, Mike Trout is back on the injured list. The Angels are in the bottom five in OPS, ERA and defensive runs saved. This incidentally isn’t a tanking team. So how to change the roster makeup? Maybe just go young and lose big? The losing might happen anyway and, besides, what the Angels are doing now is not working.
Win average: 66.0 (Last: 74.2, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.2% (Last: 10.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
What must change: Oneil Cruz‘s defense
According to baseball-reference.com, Cruz’s offense has been nine runs better than average, once you combine his hitting (.243/.377/.505 with eight homers) and baserunning (14 steals). His defensive performance in center field is minus-9 runs, erasing all of that offensive value. His bWAR (0.5) is a product of accounting — positional value and replacement value. Cruz is now minus-12 in fielding runs over the past two seasons in center. His career figure at shortstop was minus-9. Given his speed and arm strength, wherever Cruz plays, this cannot continue to happen. For all that athletic ability and offensive output, to this point he’d have produced almost as much value as a DH.
Win average: 63.6 (Last: 62.9, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Sandy Alcantara‘s command
It’s great to have Alcantara back after Tommy John surgery. But so far, he has been a little tough to watch. It’s often said that command lags behind stuff for many surgery returnees, and that certainly seems to be the case for the 2022 NL Cy Young winner. His walk ratio (5.9 per nine innings) is more than double his career norm and his strikeout rate (15.8%) is the lowest of his career. Alcantara threw strikes nearly 69% of the time during the three years before he was injured; this season he’s at 62%. His velocity isn’t quite all the way back either, but he’s still averaging 97.4 mph with his fastball. He’s just not putting it where it needs to be.
Win average: 54.9 (Last: 54.1, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Fan patience
To paraphrase Timothée Chalamet, now ain’t the time for your tears, Sox fans. That was last year. The White Sox are the team nearest to me — less than two miles from my keyboard — so I get a good sampling of fan feedback as I get out and about, plus plenty from the local media. This isn’t a scientifically-informed observation, but it feels as if many are missing the point. The White Sox tore the team down to the studs — last year — and this is the aftermath. The bounce-back was never going to be immediate. This year’s team stinks, sure, but it’s playing a much better brand of baseball than it did last year. There are players on the roster now who might be around for awhile and more are on the way. The rebuild isn’t even 20% complete and another 100-plus losses is a near certainty, but things are better. They had to be. Watching a team come together required patience, but it’s better than what White Sox fans dealt with a year ago.
Win average: 44.6 (Last: 57.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
What must change: Everything
The Rockies’ saves leader (Zach Agnos with two) has struck out one of the 26 batters he has faced. Their wins leader (Chase Dollander, a legitimately exciting prospect) has a 6.48 ERA. The team OPS+ is 62. Their leader in plate appearances (Ryan McMahon with 136) has an OPS of .574. Did the Rockies tear down? If so, how long have they been rebuilding? It’s really hard to make sense of the last half-decade or so of this franchise, and at this point, there seems to be no relief on the horizon. They did change hitting coaches.
With the final game of the first round of 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs completed Sunday night, there’s no rest for hockey fans. The second round begins Monday.
The first series to get rolling features the two remaining teams from the Atlantic Division, as the Florida Panthers visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Read on for a game preview with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Sunday’s game and the three stars of the first round from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 1 | 8 p.m. ET | ESPN
ESPN BET has installed the Panthers as the favorites in the series at -175, while the Maple Leafs are +150 to win the series against the defending Stanley Cup champions.
The Panthers won the regular-season series 3-1 by an aggregate score of 13-7. A major factor in those four games was the Panthers’ power play, which converted five of 11 chances (45.5%). For comparison, the Leafs’ power play converted only one of nine opportunities (11.1%).
This is the second time these clubs have met in the postseason; the other time was also the second round in 2023. Florida eliminated Toronto in five games, punctuated by an overtime win in Game 5. (Nick Cousins scored the goal.)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Steven Lorentz and Anthony Stolarz won the Stanley Cup with the 2024 Panthers. The only previous playoff series in NHL history in which three players dressed against a team with which they won a Cup during the previous season was when Los Angeles Kings teammates Wayne Gretzky, Mike Krushelnyski and Marty McSorley skated against the Edmonton Oilers in 1989.
The Panthers have won more playoff games (39) since 2021 than they did in their first 26 seasons (19). Their 39 wins and 66 games played in the postseason since 2021 lead the NHL.
Florida’s postseason goal-scoring leaderboard features current players through the top four spots: Carter Verhaeghe (28), Sam Reinhart (23), Aleksander Barkov (20), Matthew Tkachuk (20).
This is the Leafs’ ninth straight postseason appearance, which is the longest active streak in the NHL and tied for the second longest in franchise history. That other nine-year streak ended in 1967 with a Stanley Cup win.
Toronto captain Auston Matthews is tied with Darryl Sittler for seventh in franchise history in playoff goals, with 25. His next goal will push him into a tie for fifth, with Steve Thomas and George Armstrong. Wendel Clark is atop the leaderboard, with 34.
Arda’s three stars from Round 1
Rantanen had 12 points in the first round to help the Stars eliminate his former team the Avalanche. He had multiple Stanley Cup playoff firsts along the way, including the first Game 7 with a third-period hat trick (“The Rantanen Game”).
McDavid put the team on his back many times during the series against the Kings, especially early. He finished with 11 points in the series, as the Oilers sent the Kings home in the first round for the fourth straight season.
The netminder allowed two goals or fewer in four of the Caps’ five games against the Canadiens, earning a .922 save percentage.
Sunday’s score
Winnipeg Jets 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (2OT)
WPG wins 4-3, plays DAL in Round 2
The Blues raced out to a quick 2-0 lead in the first period — on goals by Jordan Kyrou and Mathieu Joseph — and many thought this could be another bad playoff memory for Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Though the Jets got one back in the second off the stick of Cole Perfetti, Blues center Radek Faksa scored with under a minute left in the period, giving them a 3-1 lead heading into the third.
St. Louis carried that lead into the final two minutes, when the Jets furiously rallied; Vladislav Namestnikov scored at 18:04, and Perfetti deflected in the game-tying goal with three seconds remaining. The teams fought hard through the first 36 minutes of OT, before Adam Lowry tipped Neal Pionk‘s shot from the point past Jordan Binnington for the series-clinching tally. Full recap.
0:35
Jets score tying goal in final seconds of regulation
Cole Perfetti knocks in the tying goal for the Jets with one second remaining in regulation.
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Andrea Adelson
ORLANDO, Fla. — Scott Frost walks into the UCF football building and into his office, the one he used the last time he had this job, eight years ago. The shades are drawn, just like they used to be. There are drawings from his three kids tacked to the walls. There are still trophies sitting on a shelf.
He still parks in the same spot before he walks into that same building and sits at the same desk. The only thing that has changed is that the desk is positioned in a different part of the room.
But the man doing all the same things at the University of Central Florida is a different Scott Frost than the one who left following that undefeated 2017 season to take the head coach job at Nebraska.
UCF might look the same, but the school is different now, too. The Knights are now in a Power 4 conference, and there is now a 12-team College Football Playoff that affords them the opportunity to play for national championships — as opposed to self-declaring them. Just outside his office, construction is underway to upgrade the football stadium. The same, but different.
“I know I’m a wiser person and smarter football coach,” Frost said during a sit-down interview with ESPN. “When you’re young, you think you have it all figured out. I don’t think you really get better as a person unless you go through really good things, and really bad things. I just know I’m where I’m supposed to be.”
Out on the practice field, Frost feels the most at home — he feels comfort in going back to the place that has defined nearly every day of his life. As a young boy, he learned the game from his mom and dad, both football coaches, then thrived as a college and NFL player before going into coaching.
He coaches up his players with a straightforwardness that quarterbacks coach McKenzie Milton remembers fondly from their previous time together at UCF. Milton started at quarterback on the 2017 undefeated team, and the two remained close after Frost left.
“I see the same version of him from when I was here as a player,” Milton said. “Even though the dynamic in college football has changed dramatically with the portal and NIL, I think Coach Frost is one of the few coaches that can still bring a group of guys together and turn them into a team, just with who he is and what he’s done and what he’s been through in his life. He knows what it looks like to succeed, both as a coach and a player.”
Since his return, Frost has had to adjust to those changes to college football, but he said, “I love coming into work every day. We’ve got the right kids who love football. We’re working them hard. They want to be pushed. They want to be challenged. We get to practice with palm trees and sunshine and, we’re playing big-time football. But it’s also just not the constant stress meat grinder of some other places.”
Meat grinder of some other places.
Might he mean a place such as Nebraska?
“You can think what you want,” Frost said. “One thing I told myself — I’m never going to talk about that. It just doesn’t feel good to talk about. I’ll get asked 100 questions. This is about UCF. I just don’t have anything to say.”
Frost says he has no regrets about leaving UCF, even though he didn’t get the results he had hoped for at his alma mater. When Nebraska decided to part ways with coach Mike Riley in 2017, Frost seemed the best, most obvious candidate to replace him. He had been the starting quarterback on the 1997 team, the last Nebraska team to win a national title.
He now had the coaching résumé to match. Frost had done the unthinkable at UCF — taking a program that was winless the season before he arrived, to undefeated and the talk of the college football world just two years later.
But he could not ignore the pull of Nebraska and the opportunities that came along with power conference football.
“I was so happy here,” Frost said. “We went undefeated and didn’t get a chance to win a championship, at least on the field. You are always striving to reach higher goals. I had always told myself I wasn’t going to leave here unless there was a place that you can legitimately go and win a national championship. It was a tough decision because I didn’t want to leave regardless of which place it was.”
Indeed, Frost maintains he was always happy at UCF. But he also knew returning to Nebraska would make others happy, too.
“I think I kind of knew that wasn’t best for me,” he said. “It was what some other people wanted me to do to some degree.”
In four-plus seasons with the Cornhuskers, Frost went 16-31 — including 5-22 in one-score games. He was fired three games into the 2022 season after a home loss to Georgia Southern.
After Frost was fired, he moved to Scottsdale, Arizona, where his wife has family. He reflected on what happened during his tenure with the Cornhuskers but also about what he wanted to do with the rest of his career. He tried to stay connected to the game, coaching in the U.S. Army Bowl, a high school all-star game in Frisco, Texas, in December 2022. Milton coached alongside him, and distinctly remembers a conversation they had.
“He said, ‘It’s my goal to get back to UCF one day,'” Milton said. “At that time, I was like, ‘I pray to God that happens.'”
If that was the ultimate goal, Frost needed to figure out how to position himself to get back there. While he contemplated his future, he coached his son’s flag football team to a championship. Frost found the 5- and 6-year-olds he coached “listen better than 19-year-olds sometimes.”
Ultimately, he decided on a career reboot in the NFL. Frost had visited the Rams during their offseason program, and when a job came open in summer 2024, Rams coach Sean McVay immediately reached out.
Frost was hired as a senior analyst, primarily helping with special teams but also working with offense and defense.
“It was more just getting another great leader in the building, someone who has been a head coach, that has wisdom and a wealth of experience to be able to learn from,” McVay told ESPN. “His ability to be able to communicate to our players from a great coaching perspective, but also have the empathy and the understanding from when he played — all of those things were really valuable.”
McVay said he and Frost had long discussions about handling the challenges that come with falling short as a head coach.
“There’s strength in the vulnerability,” McVay said. “I felt that from him. There’s a real power in the perspective that you have from those different experiences. If you can really look at some of the things that maybe didn’t go down the way you wanted to within the framework of your role and responsibility, real growth can occur. I saw that in him.”
Frost says his time with the Rams rejuvenated him.
“It brought me back,” Frost said. “Sometimes when you’re a head coach or maybe even a coordinator, you forget how fun it is to be around the game when it’s not all on you all the time. What I did was a very small part, and we certainly weren’t going to win or lose based on every move that I made, and I didn’t have to wear the losses and struggle for the victories like you do when you’re a head coach. I’m so grateful to those guys.”
UCF athletics director Terry Mohajir got a call from then-head coach Gus Malzahn last November. Malzahn, on the verge of finishing his fourth season at UCF, was contemplating becoming offensive coordinator at Florida State. Given all the responsibilities on his desk as head coach — from NIL to the transfer portal to roster management — he found the idea of going back to playcalling appealing. Mohajir started preparing a list of candidates and was told Thanksgiving night that Malzahn had planned to step down.
Though Frost previously worked at UCF under athletics director Danny White, he and Mohajir had a preexisting relationship. Mohajir said he reached out to Frost after he was fired at Nebraska to gauge his interest in returning to UCF as offensive coordinator under Malzahn. But Frost was not ready.
This time around, Mohajir learned quickly that Frost had interest in returning as head coach. Mohajir called McVay and Rams general manager Les Snead. They told him Frost did anything that was asked of him, including making copies around the office.
“They said, ‘You would never know he was the head coach at a major college program.” Mohajir also called former Nebraska athletic director Trev Alberts to get a better understanding about what happened with the Cornhuskers.
“Fits are a huge piece, and not everybody fits,” Mohajir said.
After eight conversations, Mohajir decided he wanted to meet Frost in person. They met at an airport hotel in Dallas.
“He was motivated,” Mohajir said. “We went from coast to coast, talked to coordinators, head coaches, pro guys, all kinds of different folks. And at the end of the day, I really believe that Scott wanted the job the most.”
The first day back in Orlando, Dec. 8, was a blur. Frost woke up at 3:45 a.m. in California to be able to make it to Florida in time for his introductory news conference with his family.
When they pulled into the campus, his first time back since he left in 2017, Frost said he was in a fog. It took another 24 hours for him and his wife, Ashley, to take a deep exhale.
“Rather than bouncing around chasing NFL jobs, we thought maybe we would be able to plant some roots here and have our kids be in a stable place for a while at a place that I really enjoyed coaching and that I think it has a chance to evolve into a place that could win a lot of football games,” Frost said. “All that together was just enough to get me to come back.”
The natural question now is whether Frost can do what he did during his first tenure.
That 2017 season stands as the only winning season of his head coaching career, but it carries so much weight with UCF fans because of its significance as both the best season in school history, and one that changed both its own future and college football.
After UCF finished 13-0, White self-declared the Knights national champions. Locked out of the four-team playoff after finishing No. 12 in the final CFP standings, White started lobbying for more attention to be paid to schools outside the power conferences.
That season also positioned UCF to pounce during the next wave of realignment. Sure enough, in 2023, the Knights began play in a Power 4 conference for the first time as Big 12 members. This past season, the CFP expanded to 12 teams. Unlike 2017, UCF now has a defined path to play for a national title and no longer has to go undefeated and then pray for a shot. Win the Big 12 championship, no matter the record, and UCF is in the playoff.
But Frost cautions those who expect the clock to turn back to 2017.
“I don’t think there’s many people out there that silly,” Frost said. “People joke about that with me, that they’re going to expect you go into undefeated in the first year. I think the fans are a little more realistic than that.”
The game, of course, is different. Had the transfer portal and NIL existed when Frost was at UCF during his first tenure, he might not have been able to keep the 2017 team together. The 2018 team, which went undefeated under Josh Heupel before losing to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl, might not have stayed together, either.
This upcoming season, UCF will receive a full share of television revenue from the Big 12, after receiving a half share (estimated $18 million) in each of his first two seasons. While that is more than what it received in the AAC, it is less than what other Big 12 schools received, making it harder to compete immediately. It also struggled with NIL funding. As a result, in its first two years in the conference, UCF went 5-13 in Big 12 play and 10-15 overall.
Assuming the House v. NCAA settlement goes into effect this summer, Mohajir says UCF is aiming to spend the full $20.5 million, including fully funding football.
“It’s like we moved to the fancy neighborhood, and we got a job that’s going to pay us money over time, and we’re going to do well over time, but we’re stretching a little to be there right now, and that requires a lot of effort from a lot of people and a lot of commitment from a lot of people,” Frost said. “So far, the help that we’ve gotten has been impressive.”
Mohajir points out that UCF has had five coaching changes over the past 10 years, dating back to the final season under George O’Leary in 2015, when the Knights went 0-12. Frost says he wants to be in for the long term, and Mohajir hopes consistency at head coach will be an added benefit. Mohajir believes UCF is getting the best of Frost in this moment and scoffs at any questions about whether rehiring him will work again.
“Based on what I’m seeing right now, it will absolutely work,” Mohajir said. “But I don’t really look at it as ‘working again.’ It’s not ‘again.’ It’s, ‘Will it work?’ Because it’s a different era.”
To that end, Frost says success is not recreating 2017 and going undefeated. Rather, Frost said, “If our group now can help us become competitive in the Big 12, and then, from time to time, compete for championships and make us more relevant nationally, I think we’ll have done our job to help catapult UCF again.”
You could say he is looking for the same result. He’s just taking a different route there.
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