Adam Boulton: With Michelle O’Neill becoming Northern Ireland’s first nationalist leader, is a united Ireland within ‘touching distance’?
The confirmation of Michelle O’Neill as first minister of Northern Ireland is historic.
She is the first representative of the nationalist community, committed to uniting Ireland, to become the leader of the Stormont Assembly, an integral part of the devolved United Kingdom.
Ms O’Neill is also complemented in the south by another woman, Mary Lou McDonald, the president of their party, Sinn Fein, and the leader of the opposition in the Irish parliament.
As polls stand Ms McDonald is on course to be the first woman prime minister of Ireland.
The two leaders often appear together and were pictured on newspaper front pages after the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lifted its block on re-establishing the power-sharing government in Northern Ireland.
Asked about a united Ireland Ms McDonald sounded confident. “In historic terms, it is within touching distance,” she told reporters.
Is she right though? Not according to the Westminster government. The 76-page document enshrining the deal with the DUP which MPs endorsed is called Safeguarding the Union and is shot through with language affirming Northern Ireland’s constitutional status as part of the UK.
Ms O’Neill and Ms McDonald clearly have electoral appeal.
Both women grew up in the Catholic community in republican families. Ms O’Neill’s father, Brendan Doris, was interned as a provisional IRA prisoner and served as a Sinn Fein councillor.
Middle-class Ms McDonald’s credentials are more remote: her great uncle, James O’Connor, an IRA member, was executed by the British during the Irish Civil War. That is ancient history, Ms O’Neill and Ms McDonald would have us believe.
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Northern Ireland: What happens now?
Dispelling the shadow of the gunman
The rise in the popularity of Sinn Fein is attributed in part to attracting women, especially from Catholic backgrounds, to vote for them, precisely because they dispel the shadow of the gunman. The two mothers of two seem to many to be the embodiment of the republican movement’s switch to seek power via the ballot box rather than the bullet.
Unlike the previous generation of Sinn Fein leadership, typified by Martin McGuinness and Gerry Adams, neither were active during the so-called “armed struggle” of the Troubles. Ms O’Neill became a member of Sinn Fein at the age of 21 after the Belfast Agreement was signed on Good Friday 1998.
Around the same time, Ms McDonald, who is eight years older, briefly joined Fianna Fail, one of Ireland’s two mainstream parties. By 2002, she was running unsuccessfully for office as a Sinn Fein candidate. She served a term for Sinn Fein in the European Parliament from 2004 and has been a TD, a member of Dail Eireann, Ireland’s parliament, since 2011.
Pic: PA
McDonald favourite to be next taoiseach
Ireland is due to hold a general election in the next 12 months. Sinn Fein tops the opinion polls with 27%, ahead of the current coalition partners Fine Gael on 20% and Fianna Fail on 17%.
That makes Ms McDonald favourite to be the next taoiseach. If so, Ireland would be united at least in having female Irish republican political leaders in both the north and south.
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Of course, Ms McDonald may not be elected and Ms O’Neill may not actually be first minister for long.
Stormont could well be suspended again. Ms O’Neill has already twice lost the post of deputy first minister when her DUP counterparts as first minister, Arlene Foster and Paul Givan, each resigned.
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Sunak ‘will not evade me forever’
Communities have refused to share power
The Northern Ireland Assembly has not sat for nearly half its existence since 1998 because one of the two communities, unionist or nationalist, refused to share power in the executive with the other.
Under the Belfast Agreement, the first and deputy first ministers have equal authority. The symbolically important top job goes to the party which has the most members of the legislative assembly elected.
Sinn Fein had 27 MLAs at the last election. Ms O’Neill qualifies to be first minister because the unionist vote is split between parties, with the DUP on 25 MLAs and Ulster Unionists with nine.
The Troubles stuttered to an end in the 1990s because neither side could win the terrorist conflict, which claimed over 3,000 lives in some 30 years.
Pic: PA
Prime ministers have tried to appease Northern Irish public
Rapprochement between the Irish and British governments was facilitated by the two countries being members of the European Union, and by the consequent modernisation of Ireland.
The UK’s referendum vote in 2016 to leave the EU was especially problematic for Northern Ireland. A clear majority in the six counties voted to remain to no avail, while the then dominant DUP were fierce Brexiteers.
Since then, successive British prime ministers have tried to appease the Northern Irish public – and intermittently to honour the UK’s commitments under the Belfast agreement – by keeping Northern Ireland, uniquely, in both the EU and UK trading blocks.
Growing support for united Ireland
Support for a united Ireland grew, with 57% of the rising generation of 18-24-year-olds in Northern Ireland favouring it in opinion polls. By no means all Catholics want a united Ireland but in demographic terms they are overtaking Protestants.
The DUP considered threats to the union lay in measures which kept trade borders open, “north-south”, with the EU, but imposed them, “east-west”, with mainland Britain. That, and a largely unspoken objection to the idea of a Roman Catholic republican woman as the political leader of Northern Ireland, lay behind their refusal, now lifted, to take part in the devolved government.
For the time being re-establishing Stormont could be a smart move by the Unionists.
Pic: PA
Responsibilities of office have dampened separatist urge
A united Ireland remains the automatic Article One in any Sinn Fein manifesto. But interview Ms McDonald on the campaign trail and she is much more interested in housing and inequality.
Ms O’Neill has been calling for the return of Stormont so she can govern and sort out Northern Ireland’s problems. The Westminster government has made funding for public services conditional on a functioning assembly.
From Scotland to Catalonia, the responsibilities of office have dampened the separatist urge. Public enthusiasm for big constitutional changes fades when voters just want whoever is in power to deliver.
The Good Friday Agreement says a united Ireland will come about if there is a public desire on both sides of the border for a referendum and if both the people of Northern Ireland and Ireland both vote, separately, for it.
The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, 45, says we are “on a path” to a united Ireland “in my lifetime”. Sir Keir Starmer, the British leader of the opposition, argues “it’s not even on the horizon”.
Ms McDonald is a politician to her fingertips and speaks as one. “Touching distance” sounds very close until you put it in the “historic context” of half a millennium’s disputation.
Michelle O’Neill is appearing on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on Sky News from 8.30am this morning
World
Om Fahad: Iraqi social media influencer shot dead by gunman on motorbike who posed as food delivery rider – report
A well-known Iraqi social media influencer has reportedly been shot dead in her car by a gunman on a motorbike.
Om Fahad, whose real name is Ghufran Sawadi, was killed outside her home in Baghdad’s Zayouna district on Friday, according to the AFP news agency, citing security officials.
It appears the unidentified attacker pretended to be delivering food to the victim, one security source said.
Om Fahad, who has nearly half a million TikTok followers, became famous for posting light-hearted videos where she dances to Iraqi music.
Six days ago, she shared footage of herself driving in a car and also posing in front of a mirror. They have each been watched hundreds of thousands of times.
The influencer was sentenced to six months in prison in February last year for sharing videos that a court ruled contained “indecent speech that undermines modesty and public morality”.
A campaign was launched in 2023 by the Iraqi government to clamp down on social media content which broke the country’s “morals and traditions”.
The interior ministry set up a committee to look for “offensive” clips on platforms such as TikTok and YouTube, with several influencers being arrested.
“This type of content is no less dangerous than organised crime,” the ministry declared in a promotional video which asked the public to help by reporting such content.
“It is one of the causes of the destruction of the Iraqi family and society.”
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Speaking last year, interior ministry spokesman Saad Maan argued the morality campaign has “nothing to do with freedom of expression”.
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In 2018, gunmen in Baghdad shot dead Tara Fares, who was a model and influencer.
After years of war and sectarian conflict following the 2003 US invasion that overthrew dictator Saddam Hussein, Iraq has returned to some semblance of normality despite sporadic violence, political instability and corruption.
But civil liberties, particularly among women and sexual minorities, are still constrained in a conservative and male-dominated society.
In the nation of ‘Cade Mile Failte’ (a hundred thousand welcomes), the residents of Coolock want to shut the door.
They’ve set up an anti-immigrant camp in the north Dublin suburb, outside a disused factory earmarked to house asylum seekers.
With green, white and orange, they’re staking claim to this ground, their protest tents bedecked with dozens of Irish flags.
Car horns blast every four or five seconds, in response to a large poster reading: “Beep if you support Coolock.”
Their other roadside banners state: “Community concern over 1,000 male migrants being housed in this building” and “Irish lives matter”.
The camp is occupied 24 hours a day, with young men guarding it overnight and residents of all ages during the day.
Two elderly women, two younger women and half a dozen men of various ages were on site when we arrived.
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The camp was marked with a number of Irish flags
Sean Crowe, who describes himself as “a concerned parent”, said: “Coolock’s message is we don’t want them here, we just don’t want them, end of story.
“We have our own gangs and trouble going on that we can’t sort out. The place is bad enough as it is.”
“It’s just going to put more of a strain,” the father-of-one added.
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Asked how he would reply to those who describe protesters as “racist”, he replied: “It’s not about racism.
“It’s about the strain it’s going to put on the community and local amenities around the place.
“That’s all it’s about, concerned parents.”
The camp at Coolock is just one of several that have sprung up across the Republic in the past year.
In several places, like Newtownkennedy in County Wicklow, the tension has reached breaking point, with public order police officers deployed.
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“We fear they’re going to do the same thing here,” said one protestor at Coolock, who wished to remain anonymous.
“If the Gardai [Irish police] attempt to shut down our peaceful protest, all hell will break loose here,” she added.
With the sun shining and the smell of meat cooking on their barbecue, it had a community feel about it.
But they’re fiercely critical of their current government and you can sense that the tension isn’t far beneath the surface.
“Eighty percent of them are crossing the border from Northern Ireland and they knew that would happen,” Sean told me.
“It’s time to close the border” are not words you expect to hear, when Ireland fought hard to keep it open.
World
Family protests outside suspected serial killer’s lair as they wait for news of teenager who went missing 12 years ago
The family of a missing high school student who may have been the first victim of a suspected serial killer in Mexico City have protested at the site where bones were found last week.
The bones were discovered with the belongings of at least six women, police said, and Amairany Roblero’s relatives have been told that evidence was found relating to her 2012 disappearance.
Ms Roblero was 18 when she vanished and, as is often the case in Mexico, her family was left to investigate her disappearance with little help from prosecutors.
Family friend Alejandra Jimenez said: “The prosecutors had the case file but they didn’t ever give any results to her parents.”
Instead, her parents printed flyers and gave them out near her school – the last place she was seen – but they had “nothing, nowhere to start, nor any directions to the end”, Ms Jimenez added.
Friends and family holds images of women who have gone missing. Pic: AP
A suspect, identified only by his first name, Miguel, was detained by neighbours and police last week after he is alleged to have killed a seventh young woman.
He is accused of waiting for a woman to leave her apartment and then rushing inside to sexually abuse and strangle her 17-year-old daughter.
The woman returned to the apartment to see the suspect leaving and she was slashed across her neck before he ran off.
She survived but her daughter died.
Investigators searched a room rented by the suspect and found bones, mobile phones and ID cards belonging to several women in the same block, thought to be mementos.
Miguel is awaiting trial on charges of murder and attempted murder relating to the most recent victims.
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City prosecutor Ulises Lara insisted the suspect was difficult to catch because “he showed no signs of violent or aggressive behaviour in his daily life”.
Ms Roblero’s family and friends were not accepting this, however.
“They (authorities) have all the means to look for missing people,” Ms Jimenez said. “Instead of focusing on their political campaigns, they should help all the women who are looking for their children.”
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Juan Carlos Gutierrez, a lawyer representing the family of another victim, was also frustrated, asking why no investigation had never been launched in that case, despite missing person reports being filed in 2015.
Ms Jimenez said Ms Roblero’s family had not been told which of the items or remains in the apartment had been linked to her, adding: “This is wearing her parents down physically, mentally.”
Some 2,580 women were murdered in Mexico in 2023, according to the country’s National Public Security System but poorly funded and badly trained prosecutors have failed to stop serial killers over the years.
In 2021 a serial killer in Mexico City killed 19 people but their bodies were only found, buried at his house, after the wife of a police commander became one of the victims.
In 2018 another serial killer in Mexico City murdered at least 10 women and was only stopped after he was seen pushing a dismembered body down the street in a pram.
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