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US inflation rose 3.1% in January, a hotter-than-expected increase that further stokes doubts as to whether the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this spring.

Last month’s Consumer Price Index — which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services — came in higher than the 2.9% figure economists had expected, according to FacfSet.

Core CPI — a number that excludes volatile food and energy prices — increased 0.4% in January, to 3.9%, after rising 0.3% in December. The figure, a closely-watched gauge among policymakers for long-term trends, was also higher than what economists at FactSet expected.

Dow futures were poised to drop early Tuesday as traders began to unwind bets that the Fed will begin easing rates sooner rather than later.

The latest inflation figure marks a cooldown from December’s stiffer-than-expected 3.4% gain, which dampened hopes on Wall Street that the first of three highly-anticipated interest rate cuts this year could come as soon as March.

“The question is whether or not May 1 remains a possibility if the next series of inflation related data do not edge lower than expected,” said LPL Financial’s chief global strategist, Quincy Krosby.

“This could easily be a one off. But for all those people saying rates are too high, he’s got to cut now,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance, said of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. “What are we waiting for? This is why. This is exactly what Powell was worried about.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics attributed the CPI’s increase to the shelter index, which rose 0.6% on a monthly basis and contributed to two-thirds of the monthly all-items increase. The food index increased 0.4% in January, more than the 0.2% it advanced in December.

The gas index, meanwhile, experienced a handsome 3.3% drop, offsetting increases in the electricity and natural gas indexes, the federal agency said. As of Tuesday, the average price for a gallon of gas in the US is $3.23, according to AAA data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest CPI report underscores that cash-strapped Americans, who are still dealing with retail prices far above where they were before the pandemic.

Hopes for rate cuts also took a hit with the January jobs report showing the labor market is booming, with US employers adding a staggering 353,000 jobs last month.

The figure blew past the 185,000 jobs economists expected, as the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7% for the third month in a row.

Januarys jobs report was the first major piece of economic data since the Federal Reserves latest policy meeting, when central bankersunanimously decided to keep interest rates at their current 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%.

Considering the jobs report and the CPI, the Fed still “doesnt have a coherent set of criteria for cutting, so for all we know this resets the clock,” according to Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale’s Head of US Rates Strategy.

“If cutting is a confidence game, we dont know when enough progress is enough or whether mild setbacks undermine their confidence.”

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Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has addressed the issue of “shrinkflation” — when businesses cut product sizes but keep prices the same — in a video posted on X ahead of Super Bowl LVIII.

Biden called the practice “a rip-off.”

Im calling on companies to put a stop to this. Lets make sure businesses do the right thing now, he said, though he didn’t offer a solution or policy to address the practice.

Senator Bob Casey in December released a report that showed the impact of smaller product sizes on everything from toilet paper to Oreos.

The report noted that household paper products were 34.9% more expensive per unit than they were in January 2019, with about 10.3% of the increase due to producers shrinking the sizes of rolls and packages.

It said the price of snacks like Oreos and Doritos had gone up 26.4% over the same period, with shrinking portions accounting for 9.8% percent of the increase.

Although inflation appears to be slowing, the economy remains Americans overall top concern, cited by 22% of poll respondents, as they have struggled with inflation and other aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last month.

Since taking office, Biden has made a pitch for lower supermarket prices, pushed drug makers to lower insulin costs, hotel chains to reduce fees and tried to diversify the meat-packing industry after beef prices skyrocketed in the aftermath of the pandemic.

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Sports

The lesson of Pete Rose and ‘Shoeless’ Joe? History is messy.

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The lesson of Pete Rose and 'Shoeless' Joe? History is messy.

Now that Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred has removed Pete Rose, “Shoeless” Joe Jackson and other deceased players from the game’s “permanently ineligible list,” whatever former stars deemed deserving based on their on-field accomplishments should, at first opportunity, be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

In a bombshell, if long overdue, reversal of policy, first reported by ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr. on Tuesday, Manfred removed bans for Rose (who bet on games while managing the Cincinnati Reds) and members of the 1919 Chicago White Sox (who fixed the World Series), among others.

After all, banishment was meaningless once they all had died — a life sentence, if you will, for whatever their transgression. Most died decades ago and were on the list for gambling-related offenses.

“Obviously, a person no longer with us cannot represent a threat to the integrity of the game,” Manfred wrote in a letter to the attorney who petitioned for Rose.

The only remaining purpose of the ban was to keep them from the immortality of being inducted into Cooperstown, which bills itself officially as the “National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.”

The last word is the most important.

Museums exist to tell about history, and history is always messy — including in sports. They shouldn’t be solely designed for the sanitized, establishment-approved version of events, or allow outside considerations to overshadow actual accomplishments. They certainly shouldn’t serve as part of some carrot-and-stick approach to desired behavior.

Should Rose and the others have done what they did? Of course not. Should they have been subject to any potential criminal or civil recourse for their actions? Absolutely. Was MLB within its rights to suspend or punish them in other ways? Definitely.

Rose, for example, should never have been allowed to work in baseball again after it was determined he bet on the Reds to win games while he was the manager.

But that doesn’t mean his record 4,256 hits, his three World Series titles, his MVP award (1973), his 17 All-Star appearances (including when he barreled over catcher Ray Fosse in the 1970 game), his “Charlie Hustle” nickname, or that epic head-first slide — shown so many times on “This Week in Baseball” that a generation of kids either crushed their chests or chipped their teeth trying to emulate it — didn’t occur.

So did his gambling scandal, a 1990 guilty plea for filing false tax returns that cost him five months in a federal prison and a 2017 sworn statement from a woman that he had committed statutory rape back in the 1970s, an allegation for which he was never criminally charged. Throughout his life, he could be indefensibly crude, difficult and confrontational.

It’s all part of the story of Pete Rose.

So let him in, then tell the good, the bad and the ugly so the public can decide what to think. This is the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the pearly gates. It’s about a nice day in central New York State with your family, complete with a gift shop.

If the museum is there to tell the history of the sport, well, how do you do it without Pete Rose? If Hall of Fame induction is reserved for the greatest players, then how could Rose not be among them? His foolishness as a manager shouldn’t have eclipsed his impact as a player.

This is where baseball’s policy was always wrong. It used the prospect of barred entry to the Hall as a deterrence. That isn’t what a museum should be about. The risk of criminal charges, lost wages from suspension and general shame should be enough. If it isn’t, so be it.

Manfred isn’t ready to release those still living from the ineligible list. He’s clinging to the concept of scaring current players straight. “It is hard to conceive of a penalty that has more deterrent effect than one that lasts a lifetime with no reprieve,” he wrote in the letter.

Perhaps, but should that be the point?

The Hall is already filled with assorted louts, drunks and racists who just happened to be able to either hit or throw a baseball really well. So what? Their personal disgrace is part of their history.

In fairness, their personal failings didn’t affect baseball the way Rose might have as a managerial gambler, and certainly not as the Black Sox did back in the day.

Still, there are owners and commissioners in the Hall who worked for decades to stop baseball from racial integration. That’s a far more widespread impact on the integrity of the game than betting on your team to beat the Dodgers.

Yes, sports wagering is always a concern and was once a major taboo. But public opinion and business realities changed. There are sportsbooks inside MLB stadiums these days, including, for a stretch, with Rose’s old team in Cincinnati.

History is history. The game is the game. The museum is the museum. Tell the story, the whole story, with all the best players and best teams and best tales, no matter how colorful, criminal or regrettable.

America can handle it. Our real national pastime is scandal, after all.

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Business

Burberry to cut 1,700 jobs after multi-million pound loss

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Burberry to cut 1,700 jobs after multi-million pound loss

Burberry, the UK’s only global luxury brand, is to cut around 1,700 jobs worldwide over the next two years after reporting a steep financial loss.

The company lost £66m in pre-tax profit in the year ended in March as luxury goods sales fell across the world and the company weathered an “uncertain” environment and a “difficult macroeconomic backdrop”.

A year earlier, it recorded £383m in profit.

Money blog: £30 broadband rule explained

It’s suffered in recent years with the share price falling to such an extent the business was removed from the FTSE 100, the index of most valuable companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Despite the financial performance, the company was upbeat, with chief executive Joshua Schulman saying “I am more optimistic than ever that Burberry’s best days are ahead and that we will deliver sustainable profitable growth over time”.

What cuts are being made?

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The retailer did not specify any shop closures – in the past year, it closed 26 and also opened 26 stores – but did highlight shift cuts and consolidations.

“We don’t have a store closing programme, per see,” Mr Schulman told investors

The night shift at Burberry’s Castleford factory will be cut, it proposed, saying the shift has resulted in overproduction.

“Significant” investment in the facility will be made, however, as the ambition is to scale up British production “over time”, Mr Schulman said.

Changes to the retail network across the world will be made with shop staff being scheduled around “peak traffic”.

Burberry will be “realigning” shop staff, he said, “so that we can offer the best service” at the busiest times.

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There will also be a “simplification” of Burberry’s regional structure and a “rebalancing” of central and regional responsibilities to reduce duplication and “accelerate decision making” through the retail network.

But the majority of changes will be made to “office space teams” around the world, the CEO said.

Commercial and creative teams have already been consolidated, Burberry’s annual results said.

What’s gone wrong?

Aside from the global slowdown in luxury goods sales over recession fears, additional headwinds have come in the form of President Trump’s tariffs.

“Clearly, the external environment has become more challenging since mid-February”, Mr Schulman told investors.

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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know

Tariff risks were higher than first planned, the annual results said.

It led the US market to be described by Mr Schulman as “choppy” since February when Mr Trump began announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, as well as on goods such as steel and cars.

Sales also fell in the Asia Pacific region by 16%, the results showed.

Criticism was levelled at the 2021 British government decision to withdraw VAT refunds for overseas visitors, “which has made the UK the least competitive destination in Europe for tourist shopping”, the results read.

“Business in our UK home market continues to be seriously impacted” by the move.

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Politics

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report

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Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report

Bitcoin’s fluctuating correlation with US equities is raising questions about its role as a global safe-haven asset during periods of financial stress.

Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a strong negative correlation with the US stock market when analyzing the short-term, seven-day trailing correlation, according to new research from blockchain data provider RedStone Oracles, shared exclusively with Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report
Bitcoin, S&P 500, 7-day rolling correlation. Source: Redstone Oracles

However, RedStone said that the 30-day indicator signals a “variable correlation” between Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 index, with the correlation coefficient ranging from -0.2 to 0.4.

This fluctuating correlation suggests that Bitcoin “doesn’t consistently function as a true hedge for equities” due to its lack of a strong negative correlation below -0.3, which is needed for “reliable counter movement during market stress,” the report said.

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report
Bitcoin, S&P 500, 30-day rolling correlation, 1-year chart. Source: Redstone Oracles

Related: $1B Bitcoin exits Coinbase in a day as analysts warn of supply shock

The research suggests that while Bitcoin may not be a dependable hedge against stock market declines, it offers value as a portfolio diversifier.

This fluctuating dynamic signals that Bitcoin often moves independently from other assets, potentially offering additional returns while other assets are struggling. Still, Bitcoin has yet to mirror the safe-haven dynamics of gold and government bonds, RedStone suggests.

Related: Nasdaq-listed GDC plans to buy Bitcoin and TRUMP memecoin for $300M

Bitcoin needs to “mature” before decoupling from stock market

While Bitcoin is poised to grow into a safe-haven asset in the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency still needs to “mature” as a global asset, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer at RedStone.

“Bitcoin still needs to mature before decoupling from stock markets,” Kazmierczak told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Increased institutional adoption will absolutely help — we’re already seeing this effect with corporate treasury investments reducing Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility and with BlackRock repetitively praising BTC as an asset in a portfolio.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin will see growing recognition as a portfolio diversifier, with an annualized return of over 230% for the past five years, which “significantly outperformed” both stocks and traditional safe-haven assets, Kazmierczak said, adding that “even a small 1–5% Bitcoin allocation can meaningfully enhance a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.”

Bitcoin more of a ‘diversifier’ than safe-haven asset: Report
Source: Vetle Lunde

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s declining volatility supports BTC’s growing maturity as a global financial asset. Bitcoin’s weekly volatility hit a 563-day low on April 30, a development that may signal more stable price action.

Bitcoin’s price volatility fell below the realized volatility of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, signaling that investors are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a long-term investment vehicle, Cointelegraph reported on May 13.

Magazine: Uni students crypto ‘grooming’ scandal, 67K scammed by fake women: Asia Express

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