Daytona 500 cheat sheet: FAQ for 2024’s Great American Race
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Ryan McGee, ESPN Senior Writer
DAYTONA, Fla. — Your attention please, my friends and readers who are hard-core NFL devotees and are still in recovery from last weekend. You know who I’m talking about. The folks who wear their favorite QB’s jersey all season, hunkered down in the recliner every Sunday with eye black smeared onto their face and a pair of 25-year-old underwear on, because that’s what they had on when their team won that one big game back that one time so many years ago. Last weekend they spent football’s biggest day answering an endless flurry of queries from relatives who hadn’t watched a down all fall, if ever, like, “Hey, that yellow handkerchief that guy keeps throwing on the field, what does that mean?”
Well, that’s exactly what we lifelong NASCAR fans will be subjected to Sunday when the Daytona 500 roars beneath the green flag to begin its 66th edition. It’s the Super Bowl of stock car racing, only it takes places at the beginning of the season instead as the grand finale. With February snow on the ground, no football to watch and the lure of the sheer over-the-top, turned-up-to-11 spectacle of it all, Daytona inevitably draws the eyeballs of millions of folks who watch NASCAR only once a year. Asking stuff of their obviously locked-in friends like, “Hey, that yellow flag that guy keeps waving over the racetrack, what does that mean?”
It is with that struggle in mind that we present our annual act of service for both sides of the stock car racing coin. A Daytona 500 cheat sheet that NASCAR newbies can memorize to impress that one friend with the “Raise Hell Praise Dale” tattoo, and also something that said Earnhardt follower can print and hand to their lost pal like a 200 mph FAQ.
You’re welcome, America. Enjoy the Great American Race.
Five favorites to win the Daytona 500
During the latest episode of his always entertaining (sometimes too entertaining for NASCAR brass) “Actions Detrimental” podcast, Denny Hamlin was asked for his pick to win the Daytona 500. He replied: “I’m not saying me. I know I’m going to win.” Cocky? Yes, always, but his Daytona confidence is well-founded. After all, he is a three-time winner of NASCAR’s biggest race, one of only six drivers to win three or more, and the other five on that list are already in the NASCAR Hall of Fame. If he wins again, he’ll move into a tie for second with Cale Yarborough, trailing only Richard Petty’s seven victories. Hamlin’s confidence is also well backed. Every single major handicapper has the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 installed as the favorite.
So, who is showing up as their second-best pick to click? The guy Hamlin mentioned on that same podcast. “If I don’t [win], I have a bold prediction: Kyle Busch wins his first Daytona 500.”
I strolled the Daytona garage Thursday evening asking for favorites from those who will be competing Sunday. The names mentioned most were Hamlin and Busch; defending Cup Series champ Ryan Blaney, who has finished second in this race twice and was eighth one year ago; Blaney’s Penske teammate Joey Logano, who won the 2015 Daytona 500 and will start first Sunday (although that might be a bad thing, more on that later); and their former teammate-turned-driver/owner Brad Keselowski. All three of those would-be favorites drive Fords. That’s not a coincidence.
The next five to keep an eye on
Kyle Larson is widely regarded as perhaps the fastest of the fast these days. In the past three seasons, he has won 17 races (that’s a lot), as well as a Cup Series title in 2021 and a runner-up finish behind Blaney last fall. For what it’s worth, he doesn’t buy into that pre-Daytona hype and points to his career Daytona 500 numbers, with a paltry two top-10s and zero top-5s in 10 tries. But still, his rivals and the wiseguys have him on their short lists and he was the strongest car in his Duel 150 on Thursday night before surrendering the lead late in the race.
Riding door-to-door with Larson in that second group is fellow 2023 title contender William Byron, who won a series-best six races one year ago and finished eighth at Daytona in the 400-mile August race. Who won that race? Chris Buescher, earning his first career victory, but he also finished fourth in last year’s Daytona 500, his third top-5 in the big race.
Another 500 favorite, according to the odds and the paddock chatter, is Byron and Larson’s Hendrick Motorsport teammate Chase Elliott, son of two-time Daytona 500 winner Bill Elliott. The issue is that the perpetual fan-voted Most Popular Driver is suffering a bit of confidence crisis after a 2023 season in which he missed multiple races, earned zero wins and failed to make the postseason cut.
Finally, the last of our second five-pack is Bubba Wallace. The driver of the 23XI Racing No. 23 has made six Daytona 500 starts and finished second twice; he was a contender one year ago before a late crash; and the first of his two career Cup Series wins came at Daytona’s cousin racetrack, Talladega Superspeedway, in 2021.
Five Daytona dark horses
OK, you really want to impress your racing-obsessed friends? When someone mentions a dark horse, reply, “Actually, there are 16 Dark Horses in the field because of the new Fords.” It’s true. Ford has rolled out a brand-new style of its race car for 2024 and nicknamed it the Dark Horse Mustang.
When it comes to actual, could-they-win long shot picks, though, keep your eyes on Tyler Reddick, who started way back in 19th in Thursday night’s first Duel 150 and diced his way past Larson to seize the win (no doubt making 23XI bosses Hamlin and Michael Jordan very happy). He was followed closely by wunderkind Carson Hocevar, who just turned 20 a few weeks ago — and was racing in the Truck series one year ago — but finished fourth in his qualifying race.
Austin Dillon will start the race 33rd but has won at Daytona twice, including the 2018 Daytona 500 (and he drives Dale Earnhardt’s legendary No. 3 car). Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has always been smooth at superspeedways and is the defending race champion.
Michael McDowell also shocked the world by winning the 2021 Daytona 500. He looked like the strongest car in his Duel before wisely getting out of the fray, because after qualifying second on Wednesday night, he will start on the front row alongside Logano.
And finally, a bonus pick: Martin Truex Jr., who has never been great at Daytona — three top-5 finishes in 37 Daytona oval starts — but, like Busch, has sentiment on his side. What does that mean? Keep reading.
Five legends who have somehow never won the Daytona 500
Truex: 34 career wins; 0-for-19 in Daytona 500; best finish: 2nd, 2016
Busch: 63 career wins; 0-for-18 in Daytona 500; best finish: 2nd, 2019
Keselowski: 35 career wins; 0-for-14 in Daytona 500; best finish: 3rd, 2014
Larson: 23 career wins; 0-for-10 in Daytona 500; best finish: 7th, 2016 and 2019
Elliott: 18 career wins; 0-for-8 in Daytona 500; best finish: 2nd, 2021
Everyone you see listed above will have a Lightning Lane to the NASCAR Hall of Fame, but unless they figure out how to win the sport’s most prestigious event, they will also look at the stats on their plaque and go “Damn it!”
To Hamlin’s point with his pick, Busch especially is overdue, having checked off every accomplishment possible except for winning this race. Last year he was in the lead at the end of 500 miles, but a late caution sent the event into overtime, where he wrecked and finished 19th after getting caught up in the crash we call the Big One. Actually, it was the fourth Big One, but it got him.
We write this every year because every year it remains true: These frustrated greats are in great Daytona 500 company. Terry Labonte was 0-for-32, Ricky Rudd was 0-for-29 and Mark Martin was 0-for-29, while Bobby Labonte, Rusty Wallace and Tony Stewart ended their careers a combined 0-for-64.
Wait, Jimmie Johnson is in the Daytona 500?
Speaking of racers in the NASCAR Hall of Fame, Johnson was inducted into the Hall just one month ago. So, that means he’s retired, right? No. Not in this world.
Yes, he is retired from full-time driving, but he has moved into full-time team ownership, his second season at the helm of what used to be Richard Petty’s team, now known as Legacy Motor Club. This will be the first of nine planned races for the two-time Daytona 500 winner and his first in a ride other than a Chevy as Legacy MC has switched to Toyotas this year in the hopes that it will be higher up the priority ladder of that manufacturer’s much less crowded roster of teams.
On Thursday night, he nearly literally drove the wheels off that Toyota as he fought to make the field for the race with no safety net of points or provisionals like the ones he enjoyed during his unparalleled career with Hendrick Motorsports, holding off old pal J.J. Yeley in a two-car fight for the final starting spot from their Duel 150.
“I have never felt pressure like that,” Johnson confessed Thursday, explaining his still-new world view as a team owner. “I was literally driving down the backstretch thinking about the people I was letting down. ‘I’m going to miss the Daytona 500, and I’m going to have to be shaking hands and visiting with people while the race is going on?'” He won’t. But man, it was close.
Five things you can shout out to make you seem really dialed in to Daytona
• “It’s the Petty family’s 75th anniversary in NASCAR!” Speaking of Richard Petty, last year NASCAR celebrated its 75th anniversary, and now it’s Petty’s turn. The Petty family, led by Richard and his son/racer/TV analyst Kyle, will spend this whole year commemorating their 75th year in NASCAR, a relationship that began in the very first race of what we now know as the Cup Series, a dirt track date in Charlotte when 11-year-old Richard sat in the grandstands and watched his father, Lee, wreck the car he had borrowed from a neighbor. A decade later, Lee won the inaugural Daytona 500, and Richard went on to add a record seven trophies.
From Petty Enterprises to Richard Petty Motorsports to Legacy MC, The King has been a mainstay in the NASCAR garage. Now he will be celebrated as he should be, at racetracks all season long via massive sculptures of his legendary cowboy hat, adorned with Petty family moments at each track.
From looking up to the Pettys, to having them as part of my journey. Proud to celebrate #Petty75. pic.twitter.com/fzOzxPdBQk
— Erik Jones (@Erik_Jones) February 15, 2024
• “That’s awesome that Joey Logano won the pole position. It’s a shame he probably won’t win the race.” This one will likely make your in-the-know NASCAR friends scoff and roll their eyes. After all, as we told you earlier, Logano is a future first-ballot NASCAR Hall of Famer who has won 32 races, including the 2015 Daytona 500.
Once he topped pole qualifying Wednesday night, though, history was immediately against him. The last time the No. 1 starter also wound up the No. 1 finisher was Dale Jarrett … in 2000! Logano was 9 years old.
• “Only 10 laps to go? There’s about to be a giant crash. Trust me.” Remember when we mentioned those four Big Ones in last year’s Daytona 500? Well, three of them happened with under 17 laps remaining in the race and the last two were unleashed in OT.
In the past eight Daytona 500s, there have been four last-lap passes for the lead. Before that, there had been only nine in 57 events. And over the past seven 500s, an average of 31 cars have been involved in crashes, including 30 one year ago. There are only 40 cars in the race. So, yeah, don’t stop watching just because you think the race is nearly over, because chances are it isn’t.
• “Can you smell what the Rock is cooking?!” Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson will be in the house for the Daytona 500. I intend to remind him that seven years ago John Cena drove the pace car and had what is considered the most entertaining celebrity prerace news conference ever seen at Daytona. Then we’ll see what happens.
This year’s honorary pace car driver is newly crowned Miss America Madison Marsh, who is also an active duty Air Force lieutenant, and the grand marshal is DJ Khaled. If we do indeed have all those crashes at the end, someone absolutely has to give him a microphone and let him keep saying, “Another one!”
I’m thrilled that Dwayne Johnson will be at the #DAYTONA500. But…will my friend @JamieLittleTV smack The Rock in the face with her ponytail like she did to @JohnCena in 2016? pic.twitter.com/GGasvfqcKl
— Ryan McGee (@ESPNMcGee) February 16, 2024
• “Did you know that one driver in this race is actually a Jedi?” No, it’s not Kaz Grala, who will start 26th and has a name that totally sounds like he learned how to race from Yoda and Mace Windu. It’s Blaney, who, on Thursday night walked away from a Mustafar-type situation as his Ford caught fire, then on Friday dropped in our official ESPN Star Wars podcast “Never Tell Me the Odds” to talk to me, Clinton Yates and Arda Öcal about his lifelong obsession with all things in a galaxy far, far away.
You can listen to it here. It’s worth downloading just to hear him tell the story of the time he met Daisy Ridley, aka Rey, when he was younger and very single and totally choked.
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
It was easy to wonder if there might be a little bit of a hangover this season. Mike Norvell weathered a strange, stair-stepping climb to greatness with Florida State — his Seminoles went 3-10 in his first 13 games, then 9-6 in the next 15, then won 19 in a row — but endured one of the most gut-wrenching season finishes you’ll ever see. First, the unbeaten Noles were snubbed out of a spot in the final four-team College Football Playoff; then, with a number of starters having either opted out or opted for season-ending surgery, they got completely humiliated 63-3 by Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Norvell said all the proper things in spring ball, and despite 14 new starters, his reputation for finding difference-makers in the transfer portal got FSU ranked 10th in the preseason AP poll. But instead of a hangover, or a slow start, his Noles have completely no-showed in 2024.
Florida State’s win percentage has fallen by 82.9 percentage points at the moment, from 0.929 to 0.100. In the history of top-division college football, there have been 14,788 teams; only three have had their win percentage fall by more than that, and two played during World War I: 1917 Colorado State (from 6-0-1 to 0-7-1), 1919 Colorado Mines (from 4-0 to 0-4-2) and 2012 Southern Miss (from 12-2 to 0-12). The Seminoles are likely to finish 2-10, beating Charleston Southern this coming weekend and then losing to rival Florida. Those results would drop them to merely the eighth-largest win percentage collapse ever, behind four more teams from 1950 or earlier.
If you prefer advanced stats, FSU has also cratered by that measure: The Seminoles finished ninth in SP+ last season but are currently 92nd. In terms of percentile ratings, they’ve fallen from 94.1% to 33.0%. Granted, there’s still a sliver of friendly preseason projections impacting the current ratings, so the Noles could fall even further over the last couple of games, but that 61.1% drop is still the 40th largest on record and the fourth largest of the 2000s behind 2018 Louisville (from 87.8% to 15.1%), 2012 Southern Miss (from 73.1% to 4.5%) and 2009 Ball State (from 75.6% to 12.5%).
Like FSU with Jordan Travis, all three of those 21st century peers lost star quarterbacks from breakthrough teams — Southern Miss lost Conference USA-winning Austin Davis, Ball State lost Nate Davis and Louisville lost Heisman winner Lamar Jackson — and both BSU (Brady Hoke) and Southern Miss (Larry Fedora) had lost their respective head coaches to bigger jobs. Louisville, meanwhile, ended the Bobby Petrino era 10 games into 2018, as his Cardinals kept getting worse and worse.
Norvell isn’t a first-year coach, and by all accounts it appears he will keep his job into 2025, even if it has required the jettisoning of assistants. I like turning to the history books to get an idea for what might happen in the future, but this one’s tricky: When a team collapses with this level of force, it’s usually at either the start or end of a coach’s tenure (or, in the case of Southern Miss’ Ellis Johnson in 2012, both).
Acknowledging both the uniqueness of the coaching situation and the severity of the fall, however, I did find 10 reasonably decent comps. Here are 10 postwar, major-conference teams (or major independents) that (a) collapsed by at least 50.0% in terms of both SP+ percentile rating and win percentage, (b) did so with a coach that was not in his first season and (c) kept that coach for the following season. How long did it take each program to rebound? Did it happen under the same coach? Let’s take a look.
1946 Oklahoma State
Head coach: Jim Lookabaugh (eighth year)
Change in record: from 9-0 to 3-7-1
Change in SP+ ranking: from seventh to 82nd
What happened: Like Mike Gundy, Lookabaugh was a former OSU player who thrived as the Cowboys’ head coach. In 1944-45, they went 17-1, winning a Cotton Bowl and a Sugar Bowl and claiming a share of the 1945 national title. But in the postwar years, his program fell back to where it was prewar. Following their collapse in 1946, they went 3-7 again in 1947 before rebounding to go 6-4 with a Delta Bowl bid — they lost 20-0 to William & Mary — in 1948. Following a 4-4-2 season in 1949, Lookabaugh retired and moved into real estate.
The Cowboys’ next good season: 1953. Jennings Whitworth led the Pokes to a 7-3 campaign and parlayed that into the Alabama job a year later.
1956 Notre Dame
Head coach: Terry Brennan (third year)
Change in record: from 8-2 to 2-8
Change in SP+ ranking: from 12th to 84th
What happened: A star halfback for Notre Dame in the postwar years, Brennan was rushed into the head-coaching role at age 25 following Frank Leahy’s health-related retirement. He steered the ship well for a while, going 17-3 in 1954-55, but things fell apart during a massive youth movement in 1956 (albeit one in which Paul Hornung still won the Heisman). The growing pains produced improvement in the coming years, and Notre Dame was talented enough to end Oklahoma’s famed 47-game winning streak with a 7-0 upset in 1957 and finish 10th in the AP poll. But for the most part, the Irish were merely solid in 1957-58, beating poor teams, mostly losing to good ones and going 13-7 overall. Brennan was fired with a 32-18 record and replaced by NFL coach Joe Kuharich, who went just 17-23.
The Fighting Irish’s next good season: 1964. Granted, 1957 was pretty good under Brennan, but the Irish were mediocre for quite a few years under Kuharich and Hugh Devore before first-year coach Ara Parseghian engineered a 9-1 charge and No. 3 AP finish in 1964. They would win the national title two years later.
1960 SMU
Head coach: Bill Meek (fourth year)
Change in record: from 5-4-1 to 0-9-1
Change in SP+ ranking: from 34th to 91st
What happened: After landing his first head-coaching job at age 30, Bill Meek was 36 when he took over at SMU in 1957, with the team less than a decade removed from back-to-back top-10 finishes. Led by Dandy Don Meredith’s passing, the Mustangs finished 18th in the AP poll in 1958, and they began 1959 ranked fourth. But they went just 5-4-1 against a brutal schedule (they were 1-4 against ranked opponents), then totally collapsed in 1960 following Meredith’s graduation.
Meek stayed for 1961 but went just 2-7-1 and moved on to front office roles with the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. SMU replaced him with Hayden Fry.
The Mustangs’ next good season: 1966. Fry’s tenure began with four straight losing seasons, but he brought the Mustangs back to the Cotton Bowl, with a No. 10 AP finish, in Year 5.
1961 Illinois
Head coach: Pete Elliott (second year)
Change in record: from 5-4 to 0-9
Change in SP+ ranking: from 36th to 103rd
What happened: An All-America quarterback at Michigan, Elliott led Cal to the Rose Bowl in 1958 before returning to the Big Ten to succeed Ray Eliot in 1960. Eliot had gone just 32-35-5 since a Rose Bowl bid in 1951, and Elliott went just 5-4 in his first season before an absolute collapse in Year 2. He was building something, though. After going just 2-7 in 1962, a talented Illini squad led by All-Americans Dick Butkus and Archie Sutton charged to 8-1-1 and won the Rose Bowl. They were above .500 in 1964 and ’65, too, but Elliott resigned in 1967 when Illinois became embroiled in a slush fund scandal.
The Illini’s next good season: 1963. The Illini beat two top-five teams (Northwestern and Michigan State) and topped Washington 17-7 in the Rose Bowl. This collapse actually had a happy ending of sorts. As long as you ignore that whole “slush fund” thing.
1985 Boston College
Head coach: Jack Bicknell (fifth year)
Change in record: from 10-2 to 4-8
Change in SP+ ranking: from 11th to 62nd
What happened: We’ve heard a lot about the “Flutie effect” through the years, where a school that enjoys sudden football success sees a burst of notoriety, higher application rates and so on. The initial effects of losing Flutie, however, weren’t great for Boston College. Following Flutie’s Heisman run and BC’s 10-win campaign and top-five finish in 1984, the Eagles quickly fell back to earth with poor Shawn Halloran behind center in 1985. After a wobbly 3-3 start, they lost five in a row and finished 4-8.
BC began 1986 in poor form again, starting just 1-3, but Halloran and the Eagles won eight straight from there, eventually beating Georgia 27-24 in the Hall of Fame Bowl.
The Eagles’ next good season: 1986. The rebound was swift. It was also short-lived. Bicknell would average just 3.5 wins over the next four seasons and, in 1991, he moved on to become head coach of the World League of American Football’s Barcelona Dragons, and in 1992-93 the Eagles surged briefly under Tom Coughlin.
1991 Louisville
Head coach: Howard Schnellenberger (seventh year)
Change in record: from 10-1-1 to 2-9
Change in SP+ ranking: from 32nd to 103rd
What happened: I’m including Louisville here even though there was nothing “major” about the Cardinals program before Schnellenberger got a hold of it. They had finished ranked only once — they went 9-1 under Lee Corso in 1972 and finished 18th as part of the Missouri Valley — but finished under .500 every year from 1979-87. After going 14-8 under Schnellenberger in 1988-89, however, they charged to 10-1-1 and walloped No. 25 Alabama 34-7 in the Fiesta Bowl. It was a miraculous building job, but with quarterback Browning Nagle off to the pros and replacement Jeff Brohm injured early in the season, the Cardinals fell apart in 1991. They would rebound to 5-6 with a healthy Brohm in 1992, then broke through the following season.
The Cardinals’ next good season: 1993. Brohm threw for 2,626 yards (a good number for the day), and the Cardinals upset No. 23 Arizona State as part of a 7-1 start. They capped a 9-3 season with an 18-7 comeback win over Michigan State in the Liberty Bowl. Schellenberger would leave for Oklahoma a year later.
1998 Washington State
Head coach: Mike Price (10th year)
Change in record: from 10-2 to 3-8
Change in SP+ ranking: from 14th to 71st
What happened: Mike Price built a cyclical power in Pullman. The Cougars would slowly grow as a roster core matured, break through with a certain level of experience and then start over again. However, following the success of quarterback Ryan Leaf & Co. in 1997 — Wazzu won 10 games, reached the Rose Bowl for just the second time and finished in the AP top 10 for the first time — it took a little while to put the pieces back together. The Cougs went just 10-24 from 1998-2000. But Price’s next awesome quarterback, Jason Gesser, led a charge starting in 2001.
The Cougars’ next good season: 2001. The Cougs started 7-0, lost only to Oregon and Washington, both ranked, and beat Purdue 33-27 in the Sun Bowl. Both Gesser and Wazzu would raise their game further the next year, winning 10 games, reaching the Rose Bowl and finishing in the AP top 10 for the second of three straight seasons. (The third season would take place without Price, who left for an ill-fated stint at Alabama.)
2007 Notre Dame
Head coach: Charlie Weis (third year)
Change in record: from 10-3 to 3-9
Change in SP+ ranking: from 26th to 87th
What happened: Congratulations to Notre Dame, the only team to show up on this list twice.
Following an impeccable 19-4 start as Irish head coach, Charlie Weis’ second season finished in disappointing fashion with blowout losses against both No. 3 USC and No. 4 LSU. Notre Dame lost eight offensive starters, including quarterback Brady Quinn (who was replaced by true freshman Jimmy Clausen), and Weis replaced defensive coordinator Rick Minter with Corwin Brown. The result: a historic collapse.
Like 2024 FSU, Notre Dame began the season 1-9, a run that included the Irish’s first loss to Navy since 1963. Notre Dame lost to three ranked opponents by a combined 96-24, and late-season wins over dire Duke and Stanford teams only redeemed things so much. They would improve in the following seasons, but only to 7-6 and 6-6, and Weis was dumped at the end of 2009.
The Fighting Irish’s next good season: 2012. Brian Kelly replaced Weis and went 8-5 in each of his first two seasons before an experienced squad, led by a strong offensive line and all-world linebacker Manti Te’o, went 12-0 in the regular season and reached the BCS championship game. It was the first of four top-10 seasons for Kelly in South Bend.
2021 Northwestern
Head coach: Pat Fitzgerald (16th year)
Change in record: from 7-2 to 3-9
Change in SP+ ranking: from 31st to 101st
What happened: Like Mike Price, Pat Fitzgerald succeeded in cycles. Between 2011 and 2019, Northwestern combined four losing records with four seasons of nine or more wins, and they likely would have won nine or more with a full season’s work in the COVID-abbreviated 2020 season too. They went 6-1 and qualified for the Big Ten championship game, where they led Ohio State late in the third quarter before succumbing 22-10. A Citrus Bowl win capped the school’s first top-10 finish in 25 years.
In 2021, however, the Wildcats entered the season with the nation’s lowest returning production. It showed. The defense went from great to decent, and the offense went from below average to horrendous. NU would go just 4-20 over the next two seasons, then Fitzgerald was fired for off-field reasons.
The Wildcats’ next good season: 2023. It didn’t turn out to be a sustainable recipe — Northwestern is right back to 4-6 this season with only a 5% chance of winning out to reach bowl eligibility, per SP+ — but under interim coach David Braun, the Wildcats went 6-2 in one-score finishes to reach 8-5 overall. That’s not as good as Fitzgerald’s best years, but it was still a seven-win improvement over the previous season.
2021 Indiana
Head coach: Tom Allen (fifth year)
Change in record: from 6-2 to 2-10
Change in SP+ ranking: from 18th to 94th
What happened: After an 8-5 campaign in 2019, their best season in 26 years, Tom Allen’s Hoosiers took another step forward in 2020, going 6-1 in the COVID-abbreviated regular season, losing only a tight game against unbeaten Ohio State and technically earning a spot in the Big Ten championship game before an emergency rule change left them out.
Michael Penix Jr. was brilliant until tearing his ACL in the sixth game, and the Hoosiers finished the season with a bowl loss against Ole Miss. Penix returned in 2021, but he was rusty and inconsistent, and he suffered another season-ending injury in early October. After a 2-2 start, Indiana lost eight straight games. Allen could never right the ship, going just 7-17 in 2022-23, his last two seasons in charge.
The Hoosiers’ next good season: 2024. A coaching change (to Curt Cignetti) and a roster flip have completely reversed IU’s fortunes. The Hoosiers are 10-0 for the first time; they are a modern turnaround story in terms of just how much you can change in a short amount of time. (The changes aren’t guaranteed to work — just ask 2024 Florida State — but there are new opportunities on the table now.)
Obviously an exercise like this is more anecdotal than scientific. Both collapses and rebounds are potentially easier, for better or worse, in an era with greater roster flexibility and potential turnover, and just because it took Hayden Fry a while to get SMU going again in the 1960s doesn’t necessarily mean much for Mike Norvell.
Still, from the old “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme” perspective, it is perhaps noteworthy that of the 10 teams above, only one rebounded immediately (1986 Boston College), but six had bounced back within three years, including six of the seven most recent examples. Only four of those six rapid rebounds happened with the same coach in charge, and each of the two examples from this decade turned around immediately with a new coach. Even Louisville, which crumbled so thoroughly to the ground in Bobby Petrino’s final season, bounced straight back to 8-5 the next season under Scott Satterfield.
Florida State probably isn’t going to be this horrendously awful for long, in other words. It was almost impossible for this to happen once — this genuinely is one of the greatest collapses this very old sport has ever seen — and it probably won’t happen again. But the odds of a full rebound under Norvell aren’t great either. He will bring new assistants and, most likely, another large transfer class to Tallahassee in 2025, but the collapse exposed a level of fragility within the program that might eventually require a head-coaching change to completely fix.
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Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff Writer
On the penultimate day of the regular season, the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates met on a cloudy afternoon at Yankee Stadium for a game of little consequence. The Yankees had already clinched the American League East title. The last-place Pirates were 24 hours from another long offseason.
But the game featured an intriguing matchup within the matchup: two starting pitchers with vastly different backgrounds and histories who happened to be leading contenders for the Rookie of the Year Award in their respective leagues to the mound opposite each other.
For the Pirates: Paul Skenes, the hyped generational talent 14 months removed from college. For the Yankees: Luis Gil, a 26-year-old revelation two-plus years removed from Tommy John surgery.
Nearly two months after that meeting, the two right-handers were recognized Monday as the best rookies in their leagues. Skenes was voted the National League’s Rookie of the Year, beating out a loaded field headlined by outfielders Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio after posting one of the best rookie seasons for a pitcher in major league history. Gil edged out teammate and catcher Austin Wells and Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser to win the award in the American League in a tight race.
Skenes, who debuted less than a year after being selected with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, surpassed expectations in his first taste of the big leagues to become the second Rookie of the Year award winner in Pirates history (Jason Bay, 2004) with 23 of the 30 first-place votes. With the honor, he earned a full year of service time despite not being called up to the majors until May, making him eligible for free agency after the 2029 season.
“Our goal, first and foremost, was to make all my starts,” said Skenes, a former two-way star at Air Force who became a full-time pitcher his junior season at LSU in 2023. “And then, beyond that, it was basically to see the best version of me that I can be out there. So I felt very good about that this year. Stayed healthy and felt really good the entire year. And then the results, I think, speak for themselves.”
Skenes, 22, went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts across 133 innings. His 1.96 ERA was the lowest for any rookie with at least 20 starts in the live ball era, dating to 1920, and the lowest in baseball in 2024 among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched. His 0.95 WHIP was tied for best in the National League. His 170 strikeouts were a franchise rookie record. His 4.3 fWAR ranked 10th among major league pitchers. With the performance, he was selected one of the three finalists for the NL Cy Young Award along with veterans Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler. That winner will be announced Wednesday.
On Monday, Merrill finished second with the other seven first-place votes and Chourio in third. Merrill, a shortstop in the minors through last season, was the San Diego Padres‘ starting center fielder on Opening Day at just 20 years old. He excelled in all facets, finishing the season with a .292/.326/.500 slash line, 24 home runs, 90 RBIs and 16 steals in 156 games while playing above-average defense. His 5.3 fWAR led all rookies.
Chourio, who doesn’t turn 21 until March, signed an $82 million extension last offseason before making his major league debut and, after a slow start, lived up to the investment. Chourio went on a tear after carrying a .201 batting average and .575 OPS through June 1, batting .305 with 16 home runs and an .888 OPS over his final 97 games.
In the American League, Gil tallied 15 of the 30 first-place votes, narrowly topping Cowser, who finished with 13 first-place votes and five points behind Gil. Oakland A’s closer Mason Miller and Cleveland Guardians reliever Cade Smith each earned one first-place vote. The five-point differential marks the second-closest election in an AL Rookie of the Year race since the three-player ballot was introduced in 2003.
“I was focused on having a good year, on helping the team win as much as I could and being focused on my career,” Gil said.
Gil entered spring training an afterthought in the Yankees’ plan, slated to start the season in the minors after being sent to minor league camp in early March. The Yankees had their starting rotation set. Gil had electric stuff but command was a concern and he logged only four innings in A-ball in 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022. Then Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, was shut down because of an elbow injury shortly thereafter, opening a spot for Gil. He did not relinquish it.
Gil went 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA in 29 starts. He led all AL rookies in wins, innings pitched (151⅔) and strikeouts (171). His 1.82 ERA through 12 starts helped the Yankees navigate the club’s 2½ months without Cole to start the season and solidified his place in the rotation for the remainder of the season. He gave up one or fewer hits in five outings, tied for the most by a rookie since the mound was moved to 60 feet, six inches in 1893, according to ESPN Research. He didn’t giver up an earned run in six of his starts, the most by a Yankees rookie since 1913.
Signed by the Minnesota Twins out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 and traded to the Yankees three years later, Gil is the 10th Yankees player to win the honor. He is the first Yankee to win it since Aaron Judge in 2017 and the first Yankees pitcher since Dave Righetti in 1981. He is the fifth Dominican-born player to win the award.
“He worked so hard to put himself in a strong position heading into spring training after coming back from Tommy John surgery,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said in a statement. “Without a guarantee of a major-league spot, he absolutely kicked in the door this spring and went on to have a phenomenal rookie season. Luis continued to mature and develop all year and was one of the pillars of our rotation.”
Unlike Gil, there was little doubt Skenes was a major league-caliber pitcher out of spring training, but the Pirates chose to not include him on their Opening Day roster. The rationale was simple: Skenes logged just 6⅔ innings as a pro in 2023 after he accumulated 122⅔ innings for LSU. So Skenes was sent to Triple-A for more seasoning and dominated on a limited workload. In seven starts, Skenes posted a 0.99 ERA with 45 strikeouts across 27⅓ innings.
Finally, on May 11, Skenes made his major league debut against the Chicago Cubs. He gave up three runs with seven strikeouts over four innings. He would give up three or more earned runs only twice more over his final 22 starts.
His first 11 outings were so dominant (1.90 ERA, 89 strikeouts to 13 walks in 66⅓ innings and seven no-hit innings in his final start of the first half against the Milwaukee Brewers) that he was named the starting pitcher for the NL All-Star team, setting the stage for an electric first inning in Arlington, Texas, against four of the sport’s best hitters. Skenes, the fifth rookie to ever start the exhibition, threw 16 pitches to Steven Kwan, Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. He walked Soto in an otherwise clean inning. He touched 100 mph and showcased his splinker — a splitter-sinker hybrid. The sequence, like every one of his starts, was must-watch television.
He pitched into the ninth inning for the first time as a pro in his first start after the All-Star Game, taking a hard-luck 2-1 loss against the St. Louis Cardinals after giving up a run in the ninth. But Pittsburgh, despite adding players at the trade deadline, fell out of the wild-card race down the stretch.
The Pirates, cautious to not overwork Skenes, had him pitch on extra rest — either five or six days — in all of his starts. But he logged at least six innings in 16 of his 23 starts. He threw at least 100 pitches in nine of them. He closed his season strong, giving up only two runs in five September starts. His final outing was brief but spectacular: Two perfect innings at Yankee Stadium, one of the sport’s grandest stages, opposite one of his most talented peers.
The goal next year? To pitch deeper into games more often from Opening Day.
“I think just being able to stay out there for seven or eight innings rather than five or six innings every outing, that’s going to be the biggest thing,” Skenes said. “We’re starting with the end in mind. We’re going to figure out how to do that.”
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
UMass has fired coach Don Brown, ending his second stint leading the program and the third overall, with two games to play this season.
Brown went 6-28 at UMass over the past two-plus seasons. He went 43-19 there from 2004 to 2008, reaching an FCS national championship game and a national quarterfinal. Brown, who grew up in the state, also served as UMass’ defensive coordinator in 1998 and 1999.
“I am extremely grateful to Coach Brown for returning to UMass three years ago to help us build back a program he once coached to a national title game,” athletic director Ryan Bamford said in a statement. “Don should have immense pride in the outstanding contributions he has made to advance Massachusetts football during his three stops in Amherst.”
Offensive coordinator Shane Montgomery will serve as UMass’ interim coach for the final two games, this week at No. 12 Georgia and then at home against UConn. Montgomery is the former head coach at Miami (Ohio).
Brown, 69, came to UMass after spending the 2021 season as defensive coordinator at Arizona. He also held coordinator roles at Michigan, Boston College, UConn, Maryland and other stops, spending much of his career in New England.
Bamford credited Brown for helping UMass, an FBS independent, earn conference membership again, as the school will begin play in the MAC in 2025.
Brown also was head coach at Northeastern (27-20) and Plymouth State (25-6).
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