Shohei Ohtani stands alone in spotlight amid gambling scandal
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Tim Keown, ESPN Senior Writer
SHOHEI OHTANI WALKED from the left-field corner to the right-field corner of Dodger Stadium on Sunday afternoon to have a festive conversation with a group of his old Angels teammates, and the news of it was that he did it alone. Before Ippei Mizuhara was fired last week and accused Monday by Ohtani of stealing $4.5 million from the Dodgers star to pay off Mizuhara’s gambling debt to a sports bookie under federal investigation, the mere idea of Ohtani covering that much ground and spending that much time on a baseball field without Mizuhara would have been incomprehensible.
It’s difficult to imagine Ohtani without Mizuhara. Ohtani appears somehow diminished without his ever-present subordinate: smaller, less imposing, as if he needed Mizuhara’s constant presence to assume his full stature. There was a certain choreography involved in getting it just right. Mizuhara almost always followed about four steps behind Ohtani, almost always wearing Ohtani’s backpack and carrying Ohtani’s water bottle, as if he needed to remain close enough to ward off any intrusion but far enough away to allow the great man’s aura to breathe.
Through six years in the big leagues, through two MVPs with the Angels and the historic two-way greatness, up to the record 10-year, $700 million contract he signed with the Dodgers, Ohtani has always been a man apart, with one exception: Mizuhara. Other players have interpreters, but only Ohtani had an interpreter who worked as a trainer and a coach and a valet and a best friend and a bellman in addition to translating his interactions with the media.
Separateness has always been part of the Ohtani mystique. He has been, in many ways, an independent contractor, allowed to conduct his unique business as a solo act within the broad parameters of a team, wearing his talent as a suit of armor. He was always too busy, too regimented, too locked in, to be subject to the mundane currents of the other 25 men on the roster. He was constantly preparing to do something nobody had ever done, and he, along with Mizuhara, was afforded the time and space to do it on his own terms.
Each was so dependent upon the other that it seems unthinkable that the relationship could have been parasitic. “To summarize how I’m feeling right now, I’m just beyond shock,” Ohtani said during an appearance before the media Monday. “It’s really hard to verbalize how I’m feeling at this point.” By now everyone knows the prevailing narrative: Ohtani alleges that Mizuhara stole $4.5 million to pay off his gambling debts, a story Mizuhara seemed to adopt only after telling ESPN that Ohtani authorized and physically completed the payments that would get his friend out of the hole. Regardless of Ohtani’s level of involvement, the truth is stark, and alarming for the Dodgers and baseball: The name of baseball’s biggest star — the highest-paid athlete in the history of North American sports — is on bank transfers, totaling millions, sent from his account to Mathew Bowyer, a Southern California bookmaker under federal investigation.
Mizuhara was part of the Ohtani mystique; instead of reducing Ohtani’s separateness, he italicized it. Ohtani was so separate, so different, that he had someone constantly at his side, handling his current needs and predicting his next, the one man capable of sensing every subtle change in vibration. In the process, Mizuhara attained a level of celebrity himself: the glory of the adjacent. With Ohtani nearly untouchable and unreachable, this spring the Dodgers fielded multiple interview requests for Mizuhara before the scandal; outlets from Japan and the U.S. were interested in telling the Mizuhara story, no doubt hoping his proximity to Ohtani would lend a greater understanding of baseball’s central character.
Ohtani and Mizuhara spent so much time together that last summer I began several conversations with Angels players by asking them a question that was only partly tongue-in-cheek: Did they think Ohtani and Mizuhara ever got sick of each other? Most laughed, and many answered with some version of, “I’ve often wondered the same thing.” None of them could remember seeing any signs of strain. And last June Phil Nevin, then the Angels manager, told me: “I don’t know what Shohei’s doing every day at the ballpark. I leave that to him.”
That, and everything else, was left to Ohtani and his ever-present confidant. “Interpreter” was never an adequate word to describe Mizuhara, who toted Ohtani’s training tools and to-the-second workout schedule in the backpack. Ohtani’s rhythms were Mizuhara’s rhythms. They occupied the same locker, ate at the same table in the players’ lounge, sat on the same five feet of bench in every dugout. Until Ohtani got his driver’s license last season, Mizuhara drove the two of them to the ballpark every day. Nobody knew if they lived together, but his Angels teammates assumed they did. From the outside, it appeared that Mizuhara cleared away every menial task and potential obstacle; the great one would worry only about his game. Mizuhara’s constant presence was proof of Ohtani’s singular genius, so much so that it is jarring to see him, now, walk alone.
PRIVACY IS A famous person entering a favorite restaurant through the back door. What Ohtani practices feels like something else, something that requires constant vigilance and regular upkeep. He announced his marriage on Instagram during spring training — despite no teammate with the Angels or Dodgers knowing he even had a girlfriend. He adorned the post with a photograph of his dog.
Any expectation that Ohtani would conduct his business more openly as a Dodger was gone before he agreed to his $700 million deal, when his representatives gave the team approximately one minute of advance notice before announcing he was signing. That was one minute more than he gave the Dodgers before the marriage announcement. On Feb. 29, a member of the team’s media relations staff woke up early and saw Ohtani’s Instagram post. The employee immediately sent it out to everyone else in the department. They learned her identity — former Japanese professional basketball player Mamiko Tanaka — along with the rest of us.
There is a heaviness to Ohtani, perhaps from the weight of projecting a nation’s culture and values into the world, the culture and values of a nation that cares deeply about both. Someone who has never watched an inning of baseball would know there is something different about him, just by watching the confidence he exudes walking to the batter’s box. His frame and bearing — 6-foot-5, eternally upright — allow him to walk through a crowd and fix his gaze just over the top of almost everyone’s head. It has served him well as a means of practiced avoidance. Everyone is there; no one is there.
With the help of his agent, Nez Balelo, Ohtani is hypervigilant in walling himself off from a prying public. He is in every Japanese newspaper every day, on nearly every newscast, a man who, especially now, cannot be overcovered anywhere baseball is played. Given that context, his ability to remain not only private but secluded feels unprecedented.
The Dodgers have sent out flares suggesting it would be different. At the beginning of spring training, with Ohtani’s availability as a hitter still in doubt after his offseason Tommy John-ish surgery — his professed ignorance of the actual procedure another example of exceeding the bounds of normal ballplayer privacy — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts was asked if Ohtani’s spring timeline would be strictly his decision.
“No, there’s a group,” Roberts said, no doubt seeing where this was headed. “Coaching staff, hitting staff, training staff, performance staff will all get together and figure out the best day for him to start.”
Ohtani partakes in the outward displays of baseball bro-hood, like wearing the kabuto helmet while coursing through the tunnel of teammates in the dugout after a home run while with the Angels. But for the most part he hung out with Mizuhara, obsessed over his diet, slept as much as possible and worked on his game.
He was, it seemed, the perfect employee, an international icon of whom Nevin says, “He wakes up every morning trying to figure out how he can be the best baseball player on the planet.” Even at $700 million, nearly all of it deferred, he appeared to be a risk-free investment. His status in Japan assures the Dodgers of countless millions in sponsorships, and judging by the scene at spring training, enough No. 17 jerseys have been sold to pay off a good part of his deal.
But now Major League Baseball is investigating Ohtani and Mizuhara over the matter, and Mizuhara’s changing stories only heighten the intrigue. Whichever scenario turns out to be true, an infinite number of questions linger. To this point, the only tangible fallout is Mizuhara’s removal from Ohtani’s orbit, a massive disruption to Ohtani’s cherished routine.
His old Angels teammates say they can’t believe either side of it — that Ohtani would gamble, that Mizuhara would steal — while in the process revealing how little they really knew about Ohtani. He famously kept to a certain asceticism, going from the hotel to the ballpark and back to the hotel. It seemed to be working perfectly, until now.
Angels closer Carlos Estevez was the main target of Ohtani’s cross-field excursion on Sunday afternoon. The two were friends as teammates, and they spent nearly 10 minutes chatting in the right-field corner. Estevez said he texted Ohtani to congratulate him on his new contract but otherwise hasn’t been in touch. Asked about Ohtani’s current predicament, Estevez said, “I’d rather not comment on that. We’ve still got to see. We’ve got to just wait for the truth to come out.”
In the Dodgers’ clubhouse, players politely waved off questions about Ohtani and Mizuhara. Reliever Alex Vesia said, “I feel like it’s none of my business.”
THE ANGELS ALWAYS felt temporary, a sort of practice team for Ohtani to display his powers before moving on. What’s next? was the nagging question for six years, following him around like a roomful of reporters. He signed with the Angels, a surprising choice, to ensure he could pursue his goal of proving himself as a hitter and a starting pitcher. It seemed wild — maybe even irresponsible — at the time, with many in baseball suggesting he would eventually have to choose one or the other. Instead, Ohtani reconfigured our idea of what a baseball player can be. Of his six seasons (he didn’t pitch in 2019 after his first Tommy John surgery), two of them — 2021 and 2023 — are among the best seasons in baseball history.
And so it feels as if his career has been a prolonged prelude to this moment, when he would not only cash in historically but play for a team that promises the opportunity for multiple World Series rings. Not surprisingly, what’s next is 30 miles up the road in Los Angeles, to the team with the most stars — four MVPs! — and the most attention. In terms of psychic distance, those 30 miles feel like thousands.
The Dodgers were swept by the Diamondbacks in the National League Division Series last October, and the front office set out to assure postseason failure like that — and like many seasons around the COVID-shortened 2020 title — not only wouldn’t but couldn’t happen again. Team president Andrew Friedman set out to fail-proof their roster, adding Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. Roberts spoke the obvious, but still unexpected, when he said this team should win a championship. The offseason group texts between players tried to keep up with the big-name acquisitions. “I wanted to come back here from the beginning,” says reliever Ryan Brasier, who re-signed just before spring training. “But I was watching these names pop up, one after another, and it was crazy. I don’t think there’s anybody who wouldn’t want to be on this team.”
And yet his new teammates have no stories about Ohtani, no anecdotes about spring training dinners or off-the-field outings. Ohtani is temporarily free of his two-way duties as he rehabilitates from his elbow surgery and focuses exclusively on hitting. He is now, quite abruptly, one of the least busy players in baseball. The pitchers say he hangs out with the hitters now, and they’re sure to have more to report once he can resume pitching. The hitters say he just got here and is so locked into his own routine that it’s difficult to break through. Meanwhile, Yamamoto is standing at Joe Kelly’s locker, springy and smiling, and they’re doing the best they can to re-create the round of golf they played the day before. Kelly tells Yamamoto he was excellent on the front nine but things got away from him after that, and they’re laughing and pantomiming their swings and promising to play another day.
At the spring training complex, Ohtani was given a locker near the main door to the clubhouse, one to the left of Mookie Betts and one to the right of Yamamoto. Nearly $1.4 billion worth of investment occupying roughly 36 square feet of floor space.
This is what everything has been leading toward: this uniform, this corner of the room, these expectations.
THE FIRST DODGER to enter into the Ohtani force field could very well have been relief pitcher J.P. Feyereisen. He’s just a guy trying to work his way back from shoulder surgery that kept him out the entire 2023 season, and early in spring training he was throwing some live batting practice on a back field at Camelback Ranch.
One of the hitters, Ohtani, ran up a 3-2 count before hitting a home run on a soggy get-it-over fastball. Feyereisen thought nothing of it, just getting his work in on a nice spring day, until that day’s workout ended and he went back to his locker.
Feyereisen, who has since been sent to the minors, stopped. “Oh, my god,” he said. There were at least 50 reporters and camera operators waiting for him, crowding his shoes. They wanted to know what pitch he threw, whether he expected it to leave the yard, what it felt like, what he thought of Ohtani’s swing, whether he had ever seen such a thing.
“Ah, just classic,” Feyereisen said later. “Welcome to the new world. The entire media group was clumped around my locker, asking me, ‘What was it like giving up a homer to Ohtani?’ I mean, what could I say? It was the same as it is giving up a homer to anyone else, but I knew that’s not what anybody wanted to hear. He’s hit more than one, you know, and I guarantee you he’s hit better pitches.”
It’s been observed over and over, the number of reporters following Ohtani around in search of the tiniest morsels, but it remains impressive. Japanese photographers stationed themselves at the entrance to the players’ parking lot every morning this spring, waiting to get the same photo — Ohtani driving, Mizuhara in the passenger seat — they got the day before and will get the day after. There was some at least some mystery, however: Ohtani arrived in a different new Porsche — it’s one of his endorsement deals in Japan — every four or five days before settling in with a silver Carrera for the final weeks in Arizona.
“It’s crazy they’re all here every day,” one Dodger said of the Japanese media, asking that he not be identified by name. “Because he never talks to them.”
Mizuhara’s firing and the conflicting stories swelled the crowd. Ohtani is no longer just a baseball story; national news outlets from two countries arrived to cover this most unexpected of stories. Close to 100 reporters — no cameras allowed — stood shoulder to shoulder in the team’s interview room on Monday to listen to Ohtani deliver his statement and leave the room without taking questions.
At the beginning of spring training, Roberts, perhaps jokingly, nominated outfielder Jason Heyward to be the one on whom reporters could rely to contextualize Ohtani’s achievements when Ohtani chooses not to — a designated speaker of sorts. It was a nod to Heyward’s experience and statesmanship, but it also served to emphasize Ohtani’s lack of availability. In Anaheim, the guys speaking for Ohtani were Zach Neto, Taylor Ward and Logan O’Hoppe. When it’s a team filled with All-Stars and three other MVPs, maybe the most accomplished collection of talent in the past several decades, it’s a tougher sell.
He seldom speaks for himself. “I know,” catcher Will Smith said during spring training. Then, perhaps thinking that it sounded harsh, he quickly said, “And I’m fine with it.”
Even before there was a hint of a gambling scandal, Ohtani’s interviews could take the form of a flash mob — surprising, crowded, here and then not. They are often negotiated. The Dodgers held discussions with Balelo, Ohtani’s agent, to arrange for Ohtani to appear at a news conference in South Korea when the team arrived for the weeklong trip culminating in the season-opening miniseries against the Padres. The negotiations for such a simple request began weeks before the trip.
With the Angels, Ohtani normally spoke only after his starts on the mound. Since he won’t be pitching this season, the Dodgers suggested he address reporters once a week, a reasonable request of an employee of his stature. Now, with the questions expected to be more pointed, more likely to prick at his previously impenetrable bubble, it’s unclear when we’ll hear from him again.
THE ANGELS’ CLUBHOUSE early on a Saturday morning in Tempe feels a little like a bus station: a few players sprawled in front of their lockers, no music, a general vibe of inertia. Mike Trout is sitting at his locker, speaking quietly on his phone. The three reporters who now cover the team stand at one end of the room. Six years ago Ohtani’s presence changed everything, immediately, and his absence changed it back just as fast.
For six seasons the players who wore this uniform were constantly asked to contextualize Ohtani’s achievements. They were probed for the smallest tidbits on his personality or work ethic or willingness to engage with his teammates. Given the team’s situation — perennially meh — Ohtani brought attention that otherwise would have stayed away, as it does now.
“It’s going to be different here without him,” Angels starting pitcher Griffin Canning says. “I can’t say easier per se, because of what a great player he is. But when you’re trying to turn a culture around and get the identity we want, I think a little less attention might benefit us.”
No detail is ever too small, and I know because I sought out even the most microscopic hints that might lead to a trail that could possibly illuminate his achievements. (I’ve never covered anyone more and known less.) This spring, it made headlines when Ohtani carried a glove onto the practice field. Ohtani has a fielder’s glove! What does it mean? During a spring training game against the Reds, Ohtani faced Nick Martinez and popped up to short left field. It would be hard to find a more insignificant moment, but several Japanese reporters began debating the type of pitch Martinez threw to induce the popup. It was off-speed, everyone agreed, but what flavor? After several urgent exchanges, they came to an agreement: a changeup.
“I wouldn’t say it’s a relief to not have to face those questions,” Angels pitcher Reid Detmers says. “There was stuff other teams wouldn’t have to worry about. When he’s around, it’s a good thing, obviously, but there is a little bit more distraction. A lot more media around. And obviously, when something happened, like if he got hurt, other people would have to answer and give their opinion on it. We’re professional athletes; we’re used to it. I would say it’s a little bit quieter around here now.”
Detmers speaks carefully, repeatedly interrupting himself to clarify or change course or choose the right word. Detmers wants to be clear that he is speaking about two different things: Ohtani and post-Ohtani. The post-Ohtani world — a united front with a fresh path forward — should not be viewed as a negative reflection on Ohtani. It seems the situation is just as hard to contextualize now as it was before.
OHTANI’S LOCKER AT Dodger Stadium is next to a curtain separating the clubhouse from the bathroom. It’s three hours before the first game of the Freeway Series against the Angels, the first day Ohtani has been in uniform in the United States since the gambling scandal broke in South Korea, and security guards move about the room, posting and reposting, going from one end of the clubhouse to the other, dipping in and out of the curtain, talking to each other through their hands. There is a half-drunk bottle of orange juice in Ohtani’s locker, surrounded by unopened packs of batting gloves and his uniform.
One of the televisions hanging from the ceiling is showing the official results from Aqueduct on “America’s Day at the Races.” That’s Money paid out 7.20, 4.20 and 3.00 in the sixth race. At 12:48 p.m., Ohtani appears, walking quickly to his locker and turning, his back to the room. He looks startled when he asked if he would answer a few questions. He stops, seems to think about it, and then says, “Tomorrow.”
When tomorrow comes, Ohtani walks into the interview room, followed by Roberts and Stan Kasten and nearly every high-ranking member of the Dodgers organization. Kelly is the lone player to stand to Ohtani’s left and listen to him say, “On a personal note, I’m very sad and shocked that someone I trusted has done this.”
Ohtani lays out Mizuhara’s alleged deceit while staring at the camera hanging from the ceiling near the back of the room. He says he didn’t know about Mizuhara’s gambling; he didn’t knowingly pay off his debts; he has never gambled on sports or asked someone to do so on his behalf; he is assisting in whatever investigations are taking place.
“Now I’m looking forward to focusing on the season,” he says. “I’m glad we had this opportunity to talk, and I’m sure there will be continuing investigations going forward.”
With that, he stands up and walks out of the room, followed again by the long tail of Dodgers executives. Fewer than 20 minutes later, he is on the field, playing catch in short left field. It is the first day he is cleared to throw as part of his elbow rehabilitation, and he is eager to start the process of getting back to what defines him. He stands about 60 feet from his throwing partner, alone.
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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