
2024 MLB predictions: From playoffs and World Series to MVPs and Cy Youngs
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adminOpening Day is tomorrow, so you know what that means — it’s time for season predictions!
There are lots of questions going into the 2024 season: What does Year 3 of MLB’s expanded playoffs have to offer? Will we continue to see top teams knocked out early? And is this the year your favorite team will make a run in October? Or your favorite player will win a postseason award?
No one can definitively know what’s in store for this season, but that doesn’t stop us from making our best guesses. We put 26 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to predict what will happen in baseball this year, from the wild-card contenders all the way up to the World Series champion, plus the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in both leagues.
For each category, we’ve asked a number of our voters to explain their picks. Did they hit the nail on the head or were they way off their mark? Only time can tell — and you know we’ll be circling back to these predictions come October to see how well, or poorly, we did.
Without further ado, let’s see what our experts had to say.
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AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our pick: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes)
Who else got votes? New York Yankees (2), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
The O’s are the overwhelming favorite to win the division. How do the Yankees beat them? By getting — and staying — healthy. Injuries ravaged the Yankees’ 2023 season, and they might again in 2024. Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu are already dealing with setbacks. LeMahieu could miss the start of the season, but he should return soon thereafter. Cole’s status is more unclear, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes likely depend on it. Assuming Cole returns sometime before the All-Star break and is effective, the Yankees should win enough baseball games to be in contention for the division title if they stay healthy elsewhere. They’ll score plenty of runs with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in the lineup.
The Orioles, meanwhile, are loaded with young talent — and they even went out and added ace Corbin Burnes during the offseason. They could be just as good, if not better, than last season’s 101-win club. But there are injury concerns in the rotation behind Burnes and regression is always a possibility. Their Pythagorean record in 2023 was 94-68, suggesting they overperformed by seven victories. It should be a close race. — Jorge Castillo
AL Central
Our pick: Minnesota Twins (16 votes)
Who else got votes? Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3), Kansas City Royals (2)
Four of the five AL Central teams got votes to win the division. Why will the Twins take it? The Twins have the clearest path to a division title of any team in the American League, but don’t just take my word for it. At ESPN BET, Minnesota is the only AL club listed as an odds-on favorite to win its division (-115). The quartet of Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis atop that lineup promises to be fierce (assuming good health, of course), while Pablo Lopez has emerged as a potential Cy Young favorite in the league. Suffice it to say, the Twins have more top-end talent on their roster than any other club in the AL Central. — Paul Hembekides
AL West
Our pick: Houston Astros (14 votes)
Who else got votes? Texas Rangers (8), Seattle Mariners (4)
Texas got eight votes, but Houston got 14. How will the Astros beat out their rivals for the division? The pre-All-Star break health of the Texas rotation is the deciding factor for me in a race between two strong teams without much separation between them. The Astros have owned the division for seven years now and there’s no clear reason to expect them to fall off in 2024. While the Rangers had the superior run differential in 2023, I think they are set up to be a much better team after the break — though, by then, they might have some ground to make up. Houston also ended up with star closer Josh Hader, another reason to lean toward the Astros in a tight chase. But it would not at all surprise me to see these teams clash in October for a second straight season. — Bradford Doolittle
How will the Rangers beat Houston? The Astros are actually in a similar boat to the Rangers in terms of the injuries befalling their rotation. For Texas, Max Scherzer is expected to be out until June, Tyler Mahle until July and Jacob deGrom until August. Houston should get Justin Verlander back soon, but Jose Urquidy is out until at least May and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia won’t return until midseason. Which leaves the lineups and gloves. And for as good as Houston is — and the Astros remain a very good baseball team — no lineup in the AL can match the Rangers’, and their defense last postseason was immaculate. Add in Seattle, and the AL West is going to be one whale of a race. — Jeff Passan
Why do you think the Mariners will win? The Mariners missed out on winning the division last season by just two games, so they were very much on par with the Astros and Rangers. Now, after three consecutive winning seasons, they’re ready to take another step. As usual, Seattle didn’t spend a lot of money in the offseason, but their pickups on offense have a chance to be sneaky good. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver provide veteran and playoff experience for a team that needs it. I’m also picking Julio Rodriguez to win MVP.
But let’s not bury the lede here: Seattle’s strength is on the mound, where they added two more talents in righties Ryne Stanek and Gregory Santos — though, the latter is sidelined at the moment. The Mariners’ biggest strength is their rotation, and, at least to start the season, it’s the best in the division. — Jesse Rogers
AL wild cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (17 votes), Seattle Mariners (14), Texas Rangers (13)
Who else got votes? Houston Astros (12), Tampa Bay Rays (11), Toronto Blue Jays (6), Baltimore Orioles (3), Boston Red Sox (2)
In recent years, the Rays have gotten a majority of votes from our panel to make the playoffs. Why are they on the outside looking in this year? I think of the Rays as a team with excellent big league depth and minor league inventory that also puts players in roles where they can succeed. It’s through these things that the Rays take advantage of every little edge — platooning non-star players, boasting lots of multi-positional types, having varied looks out of the bullpen — to squeeze wins out of a long season when each little advantage could mean a win or two. This leads to them often beating expectations in the regular season.
However, because of their payroll limitations, they often don’t have the aces or multiple star position players you see on teams that consistently win playoff series. That combined with a down-cycle of star players (Tyler Glasnow was traded, Shane McClanahan is hurt), the AL East being as good as ever and the Rays having a fair number of injuries right now are reasons for the doubts this March. — Kiley McDaniel
Only two voters chose the Red Sox and you were one of them. Why? No doubt, on paper, the Red Sox look like the weakest team in a strong division, but my decidedly unscientific approach to this exercise is that we will have some playoff turnover — because we always do. A couple surprises had to be in order, and the Red Sox have a chance to be better than everyone believes. Doolittle’s system gives them playoff odds of 21%, the offense scored more runs than the Blue Jays last season — and might be even stronger this year — and I think the Rays’ rotation injuries will catch up to them this season. Yes, the Red Sox will need their rotation to stay healthy, but if it does, they can steal a wild card. — David Schoenfield
AL champion
Our pick: Baltimore Orioles (14 votes)
Who else got votes? Houston Astros (5), New York Yankees (4), Seattle Mariners (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Texas Rangers (1)
Why are the Orioles the favorite to win the AL pennant? It’s as if evaluators look at the same script when they talk about Baltimore, emphasizing the same bold-faced word: talent. In the eyes of a lot of rival execs, the Orioles have far and away the most talent in the AL, with Adley Rutschman, who’s perceived to be the best catcher in the sport; Gunnar Henderson, who won Rookie of the Year; and Jackson Holliday, who might win Rookie of the Year if he’s called up to the big leagues soon enough. And when we get to the trade deadline, it’s safe to assume that new owner David Rubenstein will green-light the resources needed for the front office to plug holes. — Buster Olney
You were our only voter to pick the reigning World Series champions. Make the Rangers’ case. A charitable reading of the Rangers’ starting rotation is that it is in flux. Less charitably, it could be disastrous. But that’s only temporary, and I think the lineup is good enough to carry the team through the early part of the season until all the injuries play themselves out — no guarantee, but these are predictions, after all, and not promises. Scherzer will be back for one more (last?) run before the All-Star break and deGrom should be back in August. In the meantime, the Rangers will keep mashing, and manager Bruce Bochy will mix and match like he always does. Just like last season, they’ll peak when it matters most. — Tim Keown
NL East
Our pick: Atlanta Braves (24 votes)
Who else got votes? Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Why do you think this will be the Phillies’ year to usurp the Braves atop the division? The Phillies could not match the Braves during the regular season the past two years, but then they topped them twice in October, which matters more. Atlanta figures to play it safer during the regular season and enter October better-rested than it has in past seasons. Philadelphia has the better rotation and bullpen and should edge Atlanta out as each team approaches 100 wins. — Eric Karabell
NL Central
Our pick: Chicago Cubs (16 votes)
Who else got votes? Cincinnati Reds (6), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Milwaukee Brewers (2)
The Cubs are the favorite to win the NL Central, despite missing the playoffs last year. What makes this year different? It’s a tough call between Cincinnati and Chicago to win the division, but the Reds have some injuries to start the season and the Cubs have a more experienced roster, so they’re my pick to win it. But it will go down to the wire. On the surface, the Cubs won 83 games last season with a plus-96 run differential, and with nearly the same roster this year and new manager Craig Counsell in the fold, they’re less likely to leave wins on the table. A key pickup this offseason was Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga, and he, along with the team’s deep farm system, will undoubtedly be needed to contribute on the mound this year. The Cubs are void of multiple true, top-end stars but have a good 40-man roster to endure the grind of a long season. — Rogers
Make the case for the Reds to take the division. I project the National League Central to be the most wide-open division. I think 86 wins might even net a team the division title, and last year, the Reds were just four wins shy of that number. Granted, I felt better about the Reds’ absurd prospect depth before Noelvi Marte’s suspension and Matt McLain’s injury, but they still have both the raw talent and prospect capital to make the trades they’d need to bolster their playoff chances. If they made a big move for a pitcher, I think they’d be broadly looked at as more of a division favorite.— Tristan Cockcroft
NL West
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (26 votes)
Not a single voter picked another team to win the NL West. Why is this a lock for the Dodgers? Because we’ve seen them do it with so much less. The 2024 Dodgers are imperfect — in terms of their rotation stability and infield defense, specifically — but nowhere near as flawed as they were last year, when they reeled off 100 wins and claimed their 10th division title in 11 years. They’ve already mastered the six-month regular season, and now they’re the deepest and most talented team in the entire sport, let alone the NL West. There have been years when the Dodgers have been vulnerable through this run. This is not one of those. — Alden Gonzalez
NL wild cards
Our picks: Philadelphia Phillies (23 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (19), San Francisco Giants (16)
Who else got votes? San Diego Padres (8), Chicago Cubs (7), Atlanta Braves (2), Cincinnati Reds (2), St. Louis Cardinals (1)
You picked all three of the teams that were the favorites among our voters to be a wild card. Why will that be the NL wild-card field? Well, first, I’m a little surprised that the Giants were such a popular pick. I think of them more as a sleeper candidate, even though I picked them, as well. Here’s the dynamic in the NL, circa 2024. You have the Braves and Dodgers on their own level with no one else projected to be anywhere near them. At the other end of the spectrum, you have the Rockies and Nationals forecasted to be the league’s punching bags. Then you have the Phillies, who look like the clear No. 3 in the league. Since Philly shares a division with Atlanta, that marks them as the most likely of the NL’s wild-card candidates.
After that, there is no eventual end-of-season order of the other 10 teams that would shock me. I like the Diamondbacks as a team on the rise, one that should be better than last season even if they don’t catch lightning in a bottle again at playoff time. And I like the Giants for the quality bulk of their offseason acquisitions, the potential of Jung Hoo Lee to be a catalyst atop their lineup, their overall depth and especially the potential of a rotation led by a big three of Logan Webb, Blake Snell and the electric Kyle Harrison. — Doolittle
How can the Padres disrupt the wild-card race to replace one of the favored teams? The third wild-card spot in the NL could go to a half dozen teams, but I’m taking the Padres based on two factors: 1) Their starting pitching is pretty good, especially with Dylan Cease added to that rotation to go with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, and 2) They still have a dynamic lineup 1-5. I think Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are poised for their best years ever. Even with the departure of Soto, I still think the Padres can score enough runs, and combined with their great starting pitching, they have a chance to secure a wild card in the loaded NL field. They might have had too many mouths to feed last year — but this year, with fewer mouths to feed, I think they’ll be better. — Tim Kurkjian
NL champion
Our pick: Atlanta Braves (14 votes)
Who else got votes? Los Angeles Dodgers (6), Philadelphia Phillies (4), San Diego Padres (1), San Francisco Giants (1)
Make the case for the Dodgers to beat out the Braves for the pennant. The Braves and Dodgers are clearly the class of the NL right now. Both have had their successes and failures in recent playoff series, so instead of focusing on if they will have the magical thing it takes to win in the postseason in 2024, I choose to focus on how much better they can get in the second half. The Dodgers’ rotation depth could get much better (Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, and Emmet Sheehan are all on the injured list right now) and they have a top-10 farm system, while Atlanta’s is in the bottom five. A lot will happen between now and the playoffs, but the Dodgers have a lot more room for error to fix what goes wrong. — McDaniel
Make the case for the Phillies. The Phillies will come into this season driven by their surprising exit from last year’s playoffs. At the time they were knocked out, it appeared that they had all the elements of a championship team, with a deep and powerful lineup, an improved defense and a dominant postseason ace in Zack Wheeler — so their loss at the hands of the Diamondbacks must’ve gnawed at them maybe even more than losing the World Series in 2022 did. This is going to be the chip on their shoulder all season, and they know from recent experience that they can be as good or better than the Braves. The Phillies are an incredibly dangerous, highly focused team, and they’re aching to take the next step. — Olney
World Series champion
Our pick: Atlanta Braves (13 votes)
Who else got votes? Baltimore Orioles (4), Los Angeles Dodgers (4), Philadelphia Phillies (2), Seattle Mariners (1), New York Yankees (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1)
Why will this be the Braves’ year? This team is simply too good and too powerful to go down in the division series for a third straight season — although avoiding Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola might be a good idea. The most important reason why this will be the Braves’ year is that the pitching staff is the best one they have had this decade, much better and deeper than the 2021 World Series winners. The bullpen looks extremely strong, which will allow manager Brian Snitker to back off his starters some in the regular season to keep them healthy for October. And in Spencer Strider — owner of a new curveball — and Max Fried, they have a 1-2 punch that rivals any tandem in baseball and can shut down any lineup, including the Dodgers. — Schoenfield
Despite their historic offseason, the Dodgers are not our favorite to win the title — but they are yours. Why? We all think of the Dodgers as that regular-season machine, a prospective 100-win dynamo that has struggled at times to clear the postseason hurdle (well, except for the shortened 2020 campaign), but I actually see their 2024 roster as one of their best-aligned for short playoff series of any from the past decade. Their offense is rock-solid, and look at that prospective October rotation, assuming all goes well on the health front: Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kershaw and Bobby Miller, with Buehler, May, Sheehan and Gavin Stone available as insurance policies if any of the front four is absent. How many teams can claim a comparable postseason staff, at least this far out? — Cockcroft
You were the lone voter to choose the Blue Jays to win the AL East, the pennant and then the World Series. Explain why you’re all-in on them. I have stuck with the Jays since I saw the coming wave of children of some of the great Hall of Fame players I played against. The Jays are in an interesting sweet spot — they have young talent who are now also experienced. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is clearly on a mission in 2024, knowing he wasn’t at his best a year ago, and they still made the playoffs. Their rotation has a lot of arms and while every team’s pitching staff needs better health, the Blue Jays’ pitching was also a strength last year. They can win on the road, they beat up lefties and righties without pride or prejudice and half their team is so athletic that they could be playing in March Madness (and they are probably still young enough to be on a college team).
Now, the next step for them, which I believe they will take, is to perform better in their division. They proved they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat, but now, they need to beat the favorites to fully realize they are the favorites. — Doug Glanville
AL MVP
Our pick: Juan Soto (8 votes), Julio Rodriguez (8)
Who else got votes? Gunnar Henderson (3), Adley Rutschman (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (1), Corey Seager (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Jose Ramirez (1)
Our voters were tied between Soto and Rodriguez for AL MVP. Make the case for Soto. It’s hard to think of a better fit than Soto in Yankee pinstripes, playing under the bright lights of the biggest city in America. It almost feels as if he was born for this. It will energize him, as will being only a season away from his highly anticipated run at free agency. That, and the short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, might lead to the best offensive season of his career. And when it comes to separating himself from J-Rod, Soto will have one crucial thing in his favor: a fellow superstar in Judge batting behind him. — Gonzalez
Make the case for J-Rod. It came down to Soto and Rodriguez for me, too. I initially was going to pick Soto — I also think he’s going to have a monster season playing at Yankee Stadium, capitalizing on that short porch and feeding off playing in New York. But I also think Judge is going to have another MVP-caliber year, which made me wonder if Soto and Judge would actually hurt each other’s chances for the award. That led me to Rodriguez, a young superstar who just about everybody believes will take the next step this season, including me. The Mariners should be really good — that rotation might be the best in the majors — and Rodriguez should be the clear best player. That combination made him my pick. — Castillo
AL Rookie of the Year
Our pick: Wyatt Langford (20 votes)
Who else got votes? Jackson Holliday (5), Evan Carter (1)
Langford just made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, but he is already our favorite to win Rookie of the Year. What makes him so special? Langford’s teammates already are marveling at the entirety of the package he provides, from the linebacker’s body — 6-foot-1, 225 pounds — to the home run power to the advanced swing decisions. That he slipped to the fourth overall pick in last July’s draft was as much a function of the all-time class 2023 may be, but fortune smiled on the Rangers, and under general manager Chris Young, their willingness to be aggressive is a guiding light. They could’ve tried to manipulate Langford’s service time. Instead, they’re trying to win another World Series. — Passan
AL Cy Young
Our pick: Corbin Burnes (10 votes)
Who else got votes? Pablo Lopez (6), Luis Castillo (4), Tarik Skubal (4), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)
Multiple AL pitchers received four or more votes to win Cy Young, with Burnes getting the most at 10. Why was he your pick? Burnes is a rather trendy pick because he won the NL Cy Young award for the 2021 Brewers, and his new team, the ascending Orioles, are coming off a 101-win season. Burnes is fourth in innings pitched over the past three seasons and second in strikeouts, and with Gerrit Cole sidelined and Shohei Ohtani in the NL, he seems as good a choice as any. — Karabell
Lopez was next at 6 votes. Explain why you chose him. Year 1 in Minnesota was a rip-roaring success for Lopez, who increased his strikeout total by 60 from 2022 to ’23 (174 to 234) in the same number of starts (32). The league batted .184 and slugged .303 against his sweeper and curveball, which sported a ridiculous 96-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With his arrow pointing up, Lopez is poised for a 200-inning, 250-strikeout season that culminates in the Twins’ first Cy Young winner since Johan Santana in 2006. — Hembekides
NL MVP
Our pick: Mookie Betts (14 votes)
Who else got votes? Ronald Acuna Jr. (6), Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (2), BOF – Betts/Ohtani/Freeman (1)
Acuna is not our voters’ favorite here, but you were one of six people to pick him to win his second consecutive MVP. Explain your reasoning. Acuna’s 40/73 season — 41 home runs, 73 stolen bases — was statistically historic and helped him to his unanimous MVP selection in 2023, but here’s what everyone is overlooking: He would have been the MVP even if he had stolen 13 bases instead of 73. He was the best hitter in the NL, slashing .337/.416/.596, and he can do that again for a clear reason: He cut his strikeout rate from 23.6% in 2021 and 2022 to 11.4% last year. That’s a real, repeatable skill and it made him not only one of the game’s top sluggers but the sixth-most-difficult player to strike out. He may not run as much this year after tweaking his knee in spring training, but another .330, 40-homer season means he can take home MVP honors. — Schoenfield
BOF?! We’re going to need to hear your reasoning on this one. We have to pause and realize what the Dodgers have put together at the top of the order. It is a three-headed legendary spirit animal that can accomplish anything you can imagine on a baseball field. You could field an entire team with these three players. Betts could play 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF, CF, C, as well as be manager, hitting coach and GM. Ohtani could DH, pitch, break Statcast, hit or pitch baseballs in orbit and make peace with our Martian friends (since he hit a baseball there for diplomatic purposes). Freeman could just worry about picking up any bad throws on his way to 200 hits while running for mayor, governor and eventually, president. (He has my vote.) These are not just three amazing players — they are generational talents.
I thought it could be fun to track the amazing things they do this season under the BOF umbrella. Since everything has a metric now, we should personalize it. We could slap new adjectives on it and call it Ohtanic, Bettsositic and Freemantic, but better to combine it into one metric, BOF, because of their potential altogether. Forget MVP for a season, since there is a good shot one of these guys will win it — and the only reason they may not (outside of Acuna also being legendary, and Soto being in the AL now) is because they keep knocking into each other. I wish I could go back and be a nine-hole hitter in front of those three. Never again would the nine hole be so glorious. Whoever hits ninth could score 250 runs by just breathing. — Glanville
NL Rookie of the Year
Our pick: Jackson Chourio (9)
Who else got votes? Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee (6), Jackson Merrill (2), Paul Skenes (2), Shota Imanaga (1)
Why is Chourio your choice for Rookie of the Year? I remember when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I asked a pro scout how high up I should move him in my midseason top 50 prospects update. He argued for top 10 and when I brought up some concerns, he said: “Look, the scouts that have seen him think he has three 7s.” He means three of his five tools (power, speed, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, while the other two might both be 60s. How many guys in the big leagues can match that? It’s a single-digit number, and it might be as small as three. Add on top of that how highly Milwaukee raves about Chourio’s makeup and it’s hard to justify picking anyone else. — McDaniel
Yamamoto and Lee tied with six votes apiece. What makes Lee your pick? First off, Lee is fun, and baseball needs more fun. He’s fast and flashy and ready for his moment. He had a strong spring training, showing more power than expected, and he feels like the type of rookie who can come in and hit the ground running. He might not be the best player from this rookie class in five years — give that to Chourio — but he’ll be the best one over the next 6 ½ months. — Keown
NL Cy Young
Our pick: Spencer Strider (15 votes)
Who else got votes? Zack Wheeler (7), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1), Zac Gallen (1), Dylan Cease (1), Max Fried (1)
There’s more of a clear favorite in the NL Cy Young field than in the AL — and Strider’s it. Why? Based on the quality of his stuff, he’ll probably lead the league in strikeouts again. And based on the quality of his teammates, he’ll probably lead the league in wins again. But the separator could be a stronger finish. Strider accumulated a career-high 186 2/3 innings last season, more than a 50-inning jump from the year before. But he seemed to wear down near the end, posting a 5.67 ERA over his past six regular-season starts. If not for that, he probably would’ve won the Cy Young in 2023. — Gonzalez
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Sports
Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time
Published
6 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET
For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.
The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.
Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.
The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.
Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.
The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.
The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.
Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.
The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.
“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”
Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.
Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.
The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).
The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.
Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.
“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”
The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.
Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.
• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.
• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.
• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.
• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.
Sports
AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team
Published
6 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
admin
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET
Close- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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