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Apr 5, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

Who are the top 10 coaches in college football?

A straightforward question, but one that generated a wide range of opinions.

In asking our reporters for their top 10, we left the parameters open, allowing them to weigh the factors they thought were important — from past accomplishments to potential future success — however they saw fit.

No matter how you slice it, Kirby Smart of Georgia is the current standard-bearer. No surprise there. But after that, things got interesting.

With points assigned based on our reporters’ votes (10 points for first place, nine for second place and down to one point for 10th place), here are the complete rankings.

1. Kirby Smart, Georgia (100 points)
2. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama (62)
3. Kyle Whittingham, Utah (56)
4. Dabo Swinney, Clemson (50)
5. Mike Norvell, Florida State (49)
6. Dan Lanning, Oregon (37)
7. Steve Sarkisian, Texas (35)
8. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss (29)
9. Lance Leipold, Kansas (28)
10. Ryan Day, Ohio State (27)

Also receiving votes: Brian Kelly, LSU (23); Lincoln Riley, USC (20); Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (7); Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (7); Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri (6); Mack Brown, North Carolina (3); Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State (3); Jonathan Smith, Michigan State (3); Deion Sanders, Colorado (2); Curt Cignetti, Indiana (1); Chris Kleiman, Kansas State (1); Jon Sumrall, Tulane (1)

Is DeBoer, with just two years at a power conference school, worthy of being No. 2? Is Swinney, who has a stellar track record at Clemson but has slipped the past few years, still among the top four coaches in the country? Ohio State’s Day, with a 56-8 career record, is No. 10? LSU’s Kelly and USC’s Riley don’t even crack the top 10?

We needed answers, so we asked some of our voters about which result surprised them the most, and to defend some of their selections that differed from those of their colleagues.

What ranking surprised you the most?

Chris Low: Ryan Day might not be an obvious top-five selection, but he’s at least somewhere in the vicinity. To see him barely slide into these rankings at No. 10 was extremely surprising. Yes, he has lost to rival Michigan three straight years, but he’s not the first elite coach to have a rough stretch against a rival. Remember, Smart was 1-5 against Nick Saban.

Day held things together for Ohio State in 2018 as acting head coach when Urban Meyer was suspended. Since being promoted to replace Meyer in 2019, Day has won two Big Ten championships and posted 11-plus victories every year except the 2020 COVID season. His Buckeyes lost a heartbreaker to eventual national champion Georgia in the 2022 playoff. There are multiple coaches ranked ahead of Day who haven’t accomplished nearly what he has or matched his consistency in five seasons as Ohio State’s coach.

Adam Rittenberg: People might not like Brian Kelly personally, but the facts overwhelmingly show that he’s a top 10 coach. He twice took Notre Dame to the four-team College Football Playoff, went 34-6 at Cincinnati with an undefeated season, won the SEC West in his first year at LSU, has 13 finishes in the AP top 20 and owns two Division II national titles. I like some of the young coaches in this top 10, but they haven’t accomplished a fraction of what BK has in his career.

David Hale: Dan Lanning seems like a fine coach. He commanded an elite defense en route to a national title as Georgia’s defensive coordinator in 2021 and has been an exceptional 22-5 in two seasons as Oregon’s head man. What’s to argue with? Well, two years and no conference titles is a bit of a thin résumé for the No. 6 coach in the country, isn’t it? His team was torched by Georgia in 2022, lost a rivalry game to Oregon State that same year, and has been unable to topple Washington in conference. The Ducks’ most impressive win outside the Pac-12 was a 1-point win over a shorthanded North Carolina in the 2022 bowl game.

Indeed, here’s the list of Lanning’s wins over teams that ended the year ranked in the AP top 25: 2022 Utah (by 3), 2022 UCLA and 2023 Liberty. Again, no knock on Lanning, who would been an upgrade at nearly every program in the country. But No. 6? I need to see a bit more before we start putting him into the same conversations with Swinney, Whittingham and Norvell.

Harry Lyles Jr.: Dabo Swinney at No. 4 feels high to me, given his unwillingness to adjust to today’s game. I think he’s a great coach, and what he has done at Clemson is legendary work. They need to build a big statue of him on that campus at some point. But if you aren’t willing to do all the necessary things to compete at the highest level of the game, you can’t be top five. There’s a great argument you can’t be top 10 either, especially when one considers what those below Swinney have done and are doing.

Bill Connelly: Honestly, Kalen DeBoer at No. 2 is neither surprising nor undeserved. He has been great at basically every football job he has ever had. But it’s pretty funny to think about the second-best coach in college football inheriting a job in which he has almost no chance of matching his predecessor’s accomplishments. The weight of expectation will make DeBoer’s tenure in Tuscaloosa absolutely fascinating to follow.

Kyle Bonagura: The criteria for selection was up for interpretation, but I’m having a hard time imagining how Deion Sanders received any votes unless it was a light-hearted troll attempt with the protection of anonymity. In Sanders’ debut season, Colorado went 1-8 in the Pac-12 and finished in last place.

Defend your vote

Kyle Whittingham at No. 2

How’s this for sustained excellence? Whittingham earned national coach of the year honors in 2008 (13-0; beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl) and 2019 (11-3; in CFP contention until the Pac-12 title game). He has guided the Utes to top-20 finishes in three decades and built a program that was the Pac-12’s most consistent over the past six years. To have that level of success at a place without the resources of the programs in the sport’s upper echelon is beyond impressive. It’s fair to wonder what heights he might have reached if he was blessed with some of the advantages of the blue-blood schools. — Bonagura

Dan Lanning at No. 3

When I made my list, I didn’t just look at what coaches had done in the past. I considered who I would want coaching my team in the modern landscape, and everything that comes along with it. That’s why my No. 3 coach was Lanning, who had one of the most fun teams to watch last year.

I think Lanning’s path to being a head coach is significant. He has seen how two of the best coaches — Nick Saban and Kirby Smart — do it, and he was the coordinator for some of the best defenses we’ve ever seen at Georgia. Now, he has Oregon in great position to win the Big Ten in its first year in the conference. Just as important, it seems as if he’s made Eugene a premiere destination not just for recruits, but for transfers as well. We’re also talking about someone who may have been Alabama’s first choice to replace Saban. I think Lanning would have ranked higher had he taken that job, based on how high we have Kalen DeBoer (whose ranking is fine by me). — Lyles

Brian Kelly at No. 3

.

Maybe it’s just me, but winning — and doing so at every level over three decades — counts for something. Kelly won two Division II national championships at Grand Valley State, won two Big East titles at Cincinnati, and took Notre Dame to a BCS national championship game and two more CFP appearances. Most recently, he guided LSU to the 2022 SEC championship game in his first season in Baton Rouge.

Kelly has also proven he can turn around downtrodden programs quickly. (See Central Michigan and Cincinnati.) Even Notre Dame had not won more than seven games in the three seasons prior to Kelly’s arrival in 2010. So anybody who didn’t have Kelly in their top 10 either hasn’t been paying attention, doesn’t particularly like him or is too young to appreciate the difficulty of coaching at a high level over a long period of time. I’ll take proven substance over flash every time. — Low

Lincoln Riley at No. 5

Riley has underwhelmed a bit at USC, and it’s fair to question whether he will figure out the defensive piece of a championship equation. But if we’re putting several offense-centric coaches in the top 10 — DeBoer, Norvell, Lanning, Sarkisian, Kiffin — why leave off the guy with three Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks and a runner-up in Jalen Hurts? Oklahoma led the FBS in scoring (43.7 PPG) and offense (533 YPG) during Riley’s time as coach and offensive coordinator. USC is tied for the national lead in scoring average (41.6 PPG) and ranks second in passing offense (334.3 YPG) during Riley’s tenure. How is he not in the top 10 again? — Rittenberg

Dabo Swinney at No. 3

Well, the shine’s off Swinney, it would seem. After two national titles and six straight playoff appearances, Clemson has reversed course and, in the process, sullied Swinney’s reputation as a miracle worker. Indeed, it’s been a dismal three years in which Clemson is — checks notes — 30-10 with an ACC title and the eighth-best record among power conference programs in that span.

What? Yeah, that’s how great Swinney has been. The standard is so unbelievably high that even a stretch in which only a small handful of teams have been better is considered a failure. Yes, Swinney has kept some of the most recent shifts in the sport’s landscape at arm’s length, but despite the criticism and, yes, the missed playoffs, he has still churned out NFL talent, won a bunch of games and positioned Clemson, once again, to win the ACC and return to the new, expanded postseason. — Hale

Swinney out of the top 10

It all depends on the statute of limitations, right? If we’re judging coaches by their résumés, Swinney should be second on the list at worst. It’s hard to beat two national titles and seven ACC championships. But while he remains a very good head coach, it’s extremely difficult to make the case that he has been anywhere close to one of college football’s 10 best over the past three years. Clemson has finished 14th, 13th and 20th in the past three final AP polls and has retreated from national title contention to one conference title in three seasons and wins in the Cheez-It and Gator Bowls.

Swinney’s refusal to adapt to the evolution in roster management, and his insistence on continuing to build through high school recruiting, is endearing in a way, but it has made Clemson far less nimble than other top programs when it comes to plugging holes from year to year. And right now, it appears that Clemson is merely a top-15 or top-20 program. Most still aspire to that, but it’s an unquestionable letdown for a program that once made six straight CFP appearances. Make no mistake: If we had ranked 15 coaches, I would have had Swinney on the list. But it has been a minute since he was a top-10 coach. — Connelly

Ryan Day out of the top 10

Considering my top 10 included Lance Leipold, Kyle Whittingham and Curt Cignetti, it’s pretty clear I have a thing for the coaches who create big things from harder jobs. Day might have thrived at Kansas, Utah or James Madison too, but all we know is that he inherited a team that had averaged 11.3 wins per year over the previous 12 seasons (and 12.2 over the previous six) and has, in four full seasons, averaged 11.5.

Not just anyone could do that, and Day is clearly a very good head coach. But simply winning a lot of games at Ohio State doesn’t make you one of the 10 best. — Connelly

Kalen DeBoer at No. 10

Perhaps I’m a pessimist. Or, at least, someone who’s seen too many can’t-miss hires miss spectacularly (Jimbo Fisher, Scott Frost, Chip Kelly, Tom Herman, etc., etc.). Yes, DeBoer is a tremendous coach who has won everywhere he’s been at nearly every level of college football. He had Washington a few plays away from a national title last year. He’s great. But … he has coached two years at a power conference school, and now he’s moving to a program where the standard is, shall we say, a tad lofty.

He has never had to recruit in the SEC. He has never been under the microscope that comes with being the Alabama head coach. He has never had to showcase his offense against the type of physically dominant opposition he’ll see nearly weekly in 2024. And, of course, he has never had to follow a legend, and that alone is an incredibly tall task. Should we be surprised if it all works out? Of course not! Again, DeBoer is very good. But the names I have ahead of him — Smart, Swinney, Whittingham, Norvell, Kiffin — have done it longer, are in more stable positions and have enjoyed great success in their own rights. — Hale

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Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79

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3 hours ago

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December 7, 2025

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Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79

  • Associated Press

Dec 7, 2025, 02:44 AM ET

DALLAS — Tom Hicks, the Texas businessman and philanthropist who owned two Dallas-area professional sports franchises and an English Premier League soccer team, died Saturday. He was 79.

Spokesperson Lisa LeMaster said in statement that Hicks died peacefully in Dallas surrounded by family.

Hicks owned the NHL’s Dallas Stars from 1995 to 2011, winning the Stanley Cup in 1999. He also owned baseball’s Texas Rangers from 1998 to 2010, leading them to three American West Division titles and a World Series appearance. In 2007, he acquired a 50% stake in Liverpool.

“Being shoulder to shoulder with him was always about more than ballparks and stadiums, though,” Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said in a statement. “It was about personal respect, trust and friendship. We shared a lot of miles together, and I’ll miss him greatly. My heart goes out to his family.”

Hicks co-founded Hicks & Haas in 1984 and helped reshape private equity and investing strategy. He served on the University of Texas’s board of regents from 1994 to 1999.

“Tom Hicks was an innovative businessman and a pioneer in private equity,” fellow Texas businessman Ross Perot Jr. said in a statement. “He combined his commitment to business and sports through his ownership of the Stars and the Rangers.”

Hicks is survived by his wife of 35 years, Cinda Cree Hicks, and his six children — Thomas Ollis Hicks Jr., Mack Hardin Hicks, John Alexander Hicks, Robert Bradley Hicks, William Cree Hicks and Catherine Forgrave Hicks.

His children released a joint statement, saying:

“Of everything he accomplished in his remarkable life, Tom Hicks’s most cherished title was, ‘Dad.’ No matter the trials and tribulations he faced in life, he was constant in his generosity and love for his family. He remains a guiding force for our family, and we are deeply honored to continue expanding his legacy. Although we are devastated by this loss, we are profoundly grateful to have been his children.”

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Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game

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3 hours ago

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December 7, 2025

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Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game

  • Kyle Bonagura

    Close

    Kyle Bonagura

    ESPN Staff Writer

    • Covers college football.
    • Joined ESPN in 2014.
    • Attended Washington State University.

  • Mark Schlabach

    Close

    Mark Schlabach

    ESPN Senior Writer

    • Senior college football writer
    • Author of seven books on college football
    • Graduate of the University of Georgia

Dec 7, 2025, 01:00 AM ET

After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?

We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

All times Eastern

Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Complete bowl season schedule

Matchups in bold have already been announced

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M

Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware

Thursday, Dec. 18

Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

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Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?

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3 hours ago

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December 7, 2025

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Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?

Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.

It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.

With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.

Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?

Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.

Jump to:
Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.

Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.

Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.

Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.

Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.

Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.

Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.

Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.

Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).

Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.

Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.

Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).

Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.

Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.

Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.

Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.

Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.

Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.

Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.

Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.

Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.

Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.

Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.

Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.

Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.

Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.

Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.

Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.

Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.

Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.

Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.

Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.

Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.

Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.

Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.

Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana

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