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Retail sales were up in March – and are expected to grow further in the coming months as warm weather and events such as Taylor Swift’s UK tour boost consumer spending, according to industry analysts.

Sports tournaments such as the Paris Olympics, along with factors such as falling energy bills, are also predicted to boost takings as shops recover from the impact of recent poor weather and high inflation on household budgets.

The forecasts come after year-on-year retail sales increased by 3.5% in March – which is above the average of 2.9% for the past 12 months, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG.

The researchers said an early Easter was part of the reason for the rise, with food sales increasing by 6.8% year-on-year over the three months to March.

They also said further wet weather during the month had dampened demand for garden furniture, clothing, BBQs and DIY products.

However, Linda Ellett, from KPMG, said there were signs of “green shoots” for retailers, as economic indicators were “heading in the right direction with inflationary pressures easing” – although she warned that consumer confidence remained fragile.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson added: “After a difficult start to the year, retailers are hopeful that with warmer weather around the corner, consumer confidence will spring back up.”

Separate figures from Barclays, also released on Tuesday, found consumer card spending was “flat”, growing 1.9% in March – the same as the month before – largely due to a slowdown in non-essential purchasing blamed on the wet weather.

However, it found “growing stability” in housing costs, with its analysts also expressing optimism for the months ahead.

Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said: “The wet weather has been a key factor in the slowdown in discretionary spending, as it’s meant fewer visits to the high street and to hospitality venues.

“However, in spite of this initial lull, many retailers are confident that spending will rebound in the coming months, particularly in anticipation of better weather, the energy price cap drop, an uplift in the national minimum wage, and the buzz around major events such as Taylor Swift‘s Eras Tour and the Paris 2024 Olympics.”

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Mark Arnold, head of savings & mortgages at Barclays UK, added that there were “reasons to be optimistic”.

He said: “Our data shows that housing costs are stabilising, the inflationary tide is easing, and interest rates are predicted to fall over the coming months, all of which should translate into increased consumer confidence and spending.”

Swift is playing a total of 15 UK shows this summer, starting on 7 June in Edinburgh before concluding at London’s Wembley Stadium on 20 August.

The US singer’s recent gigs in Australia were credited by officials for boosting the country’s economy.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said Swift’s seven sold-out concerts in Sydney and Melbourne led to increased spending on clothing, merchandise, accessories and dining out in February.

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Premier Inn owner Whitbread to axe 1,500 jobs as it looks to expand hotel business

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Premier Inn owner Whitbread to axe 1,500 jobs as it looks to expand hotel business

Premier Inn owner Whitbread is set to axe around 1,500 UK jobs as part of plans to build more hotel rooms and slash its chain of branded restaurants by more than 200.

The company said, while announcing a 36% hike in annual profits to £561m, that it was to begin a consultation on cutting roles under an “accelerating growth plan”.

That was to focus on hotel investment, Whitbread explained, that could see some of the jobs saved through redeployment.

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The group’s restaurant arm includes the Brewers Fayre and Beefeater brands.

The division has dragged on Whitbread’s performance since the pandemic, with the end of public health restrictions being followed by the energy-led cost of living crisis that has raised costs and damaged consumer spending power.

The company, which employs 37,000 staff in the UK, said it was to “optimise” its food and drink offering to add more than 3,500 hotel rooms across its estate and increase “operational efficiencies”.

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Whitbread said it wanted to sell 126 of its less profitable branded restaurants, with 21 sales already having gone through.

Brewers fayre sign next to Premier Inn
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Brewers Fayre, the pub/restaurant chain, is among Whitbread’s brands

It will also convert 112 restaurants into new hotel rooms.

The company revealed a 2% dip in sales across its food and beverage arm in the first seven weeks of its financial year to date.

Dominic Paul, Whitbread’s chief executive, said: “We recognise that our transition will impact some of our team members so we will be providing support throughout this process and we are committed to working hard to enable as many as possible of those affected to remain with us.”

Shares were down almost 15% in the year to date ahead of the company’s announcements.

They rose by 1.7% at the open.

Analysts said it reflected the focus on achieving more profitable growth in the UK core market and a rise in awards covering the year to 29 February.

They included plans for a share buyback of £150m on top of a £110m final dividend.

The latter award was 26% up on the previous year’s payout.

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Telegraph put up for sale after ownership battle with government

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Telegraph put up for sale after ownership battle with government

An Abu Dhabi-backed fund has conceded defeat in its bid to buy The Daily Telegraph after its ownership was effectively blocked by the government.

RedBird IMI announced it had placed The Telegraph and The Spectator titles up for sale, declaring that its ownership was “no longer feasible”.

The move was confirmed after ministers revealed plans last month to outlaw foreign state ownership of UK newspapers.

The gulf state-backed fund had reached a deal with previous Telegraph owners the Barclay family, in December last year, to take control of the group by paying off debts owed to their bank, Lloyds.

But the move sparked investigations by the Competition and Markets Authority and the media regulator and culminated in the government pulling the plug through an amendment to the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Bill.

A statement read: “RedBird IMI has today confirmed that it intends to withdraw from its proposed acquisition of the Telegraph Media Group and proceed with a sale.

“We continue to believe this approach would have benefited the Telegraph and Spectator’s readers, their journalists and the UK media landscape more widely.

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“Regrettably, it is clear this approach is no longer feasible.”

Sky News revealed earlier this month that RedBird IMI had been in talks with Whitehall officials over the structure of the onward sale.

Those discussions included the possibility of the Telegraph titles and The Spectator being sold separately.

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Brexit border checks to ‘add billions’ to consumer bills

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Brexit border checks to 'add billions' to consumer bills

Border checks on food and plant imports will add billions of pounds to the cost of doing business with the European Union, industry figures have warned.

From today European imports considered a “medium risk” to UK biosecurity will face physical inspection as part of a new border regime introduced almost eight years after the Brexit vote, and delayed five times in two years.

Plant and animal inspectors will examine a proportion of imported goods including fresh meat, fish, and dairy produce, a process that importers fear will disrupt supply chains, particularly for time-critical fresh goods.

The physical checks come three months after the introduction of new documentation for imports, including health certificates that require vets and plant inspectors to sign off consignments.

With importers also facing a charge for each consignment that comes into the UK irrespective of whether it is stopped for inspection, the government admits it will add more than £330m to annual business costs, and add 0.2% to food inflation over three years.

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The Cold Chain Federation, which represents cold and frozen goods importers, believes government estimates are low, and puts the cost in billions.

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“We think there’s going to be a billion pound’s worth of extra cost put onto food coming through Dover port alone, if you expand that to the rest of the country you’re looking at all sorts of money, so it won’t be 0.2%, it will be substantially more than that and the consumer will see that increase,” chief executive Phil Pluck told Sky News.

“Restaurants, delicatessens, fish and chip shops could well be affected by what’s currently happening today and the consumer, in the very near future will start to see some of those food products going up in price.”

The government insists the checks are necessary to keep food and plant-borne diseases including African swine fever out of the UK, and the cost of introducing the checks is “negligible” compared to the impact of a major disease outbreak.

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Christine Middlemiss, the UK chief veterinary officer, said: “Now that we’re out of the EU and we can have our own biosecurity regime, we treat independently with other countries around the world so it’s important we’re managing our own biosecurity risks at the moment we’re at medium risk of incursion of a disease called African swine fever which is present in Germany and Italy and a number of countries in Europe.”

Smaller independent food importers fear they will be disproportionately affected by the new border regime as they lack the scale to mitigate costs or set up European subsidiaries to handle the process.

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Stefano Vallebona came to the UK 40 years ago from Sardinia and began providing London’s top restaurateurs with high-quality European produce. He says the new red tape will discourage small suppliers from doing business with the UK and ultimately reduce choice.

“All the pasteurised cheese, they already have extra European certificates, and when you talk to suppliers they’re not so keen, probably because they’re too small, because it’s new and it’s time consuming, so we’re going to have less speciality products.

“We will have less interesting cheeses, less interesting meats, and probably more power to the supermarkets and less to independents because it’s going to be harder.”

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European importers say the health checks are of limited value as they replicate the EU processes that the UK helped create for four decades, and have lived with for the last eight years without any additional processes.

Piotr Liczycki, managing director of Polish haulage firm Eljot International Transport, which specialises in meat imports, estimates his customers will pay around £1m in fees to the UK government this year.

“Nobody can explain what’s the difference between midnight and when the Brexit rules start up. It’s completely the same stuff, from the same factory, with the same quality, nothing has changed,” he told Sky News.

“Polish groups and poultry plants are wondering why the UK government didn’t enforce a solution like we have with Japan, or South Korea. You send us a couple of officials from Defra, they check the plant, do inspection, and say this plant is compliant with all our regulations so we give you permission to send goods for six months or a year.”

Cabinet Office minister Baroness Neville-Rolfe said: “It is essential that we introduce these global, risk-based checks to improve the UK’s biosecurity. We cannot continue with temporary measures which leave the UK open to threats from diseases and could do considerable damage to our livelihoods, our economy and our farming industry.”

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