Rwanda plan blame game begins over latest delays – with plenty more showdowns to come for Rishi Sunak

Published

2 weeks ago

April 18, 2024

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This was the week it was meant to be done.

Having forced the House of Commons to vote down the Lords’ amendments to the prime minister’s flagship illegal immigration bill three times, peers would typically have bowed out of the battle this time around and passed the Rwanda bill.

Instead, they sought to amend the legislation again.

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Rwanda bill delayed after government suffers surprise defeats

There is obvious frustration in government, with one senior figure saying: “We wanted to get it done today, but it shows Labour for their true colours.”

The Rwanda bill now comes back to the Commons next week, and could finally be passed on Monday.

All the while, the clock is ticking down on the prime minister‘s promise to get flights away by the end of spring.

With that timetable already in doubt, at least this ping pong can help ministers pin this on peers should that deadline be missed.

But there is also huge frustration amongst some MPs with Number 10.

‘We need to get it through’

Many are asking why the government didn’t just table late night sittings and force Lords to sit into the night to ram through the legislation.

Tory MP Rehman Chishti spoke for many colleagues when he told me he didn’t understand why the whips hadn’t chosen this course.

“I think the programme motion could easily have ensured that we had a vote tomorrow because at the end of day the public want us to get on and get it done. Labour have delayed, dithered, delayed. We’ve got a plan, but we need to get it through,” he said.

“If you would have asked me, I would have put it in tomorrow and I would have a vote on it. And therefore we get those planes off and make sure that this policy delivers what it needs to be delivering, which is deterrence.”

Another senior minister told me it was “clear” to them that these were “delaying tactics because they know the version of the policy doesn’t work and they want more time and to put off the day of reckoning”.

Labour ‘terrified it will work’

As Labour blames the government for refusing to compromise on amendments, and “going home” instead of looking again at the bill this evening, the government blames Labour for delaying the bill because – to quote minister Steve Baker – “they are terrified it will work”.

There is talk that had the government accepted the amendment to exempt Afghans who served alongside UK forces from deportation to Rwanda, the Lords might have passed the bill.

Labour had received an assurance from the Home Office that this amendment, tabled by former Labour defence secretary Des Browne, was going to be accepted – only for it then to be blocked.

For all the drama and irritation, it is likely that the prime minister will still have his moment.

At some point, the House of Lords will have to cave. Unelected peers cannot keep ignoring the will of the Commons.

But the question then is whether he can assuage the frustration of voters who are watching the small boats still coming, with the most crossings in a single day this year – 534 people – happening this week.

‘Another failed thing they promised’

In our Sky News election target town of Cleethorpes, part of a key bellwether seat in the next general election, voters we spoke to are sceptical the government will deliver the flights at all.

One resident told us: “They tell you what they think you want to hear but when it comes down to it, they don’t deliver that.”

Another said: “No one’s gone to Rwanda. They get on the plane, and they take them off. So that’s another failed thing they’ve promised.”

And really that’s the rub of it – the prime minister will get this legislation passed.

Then the challenge is to get those planes off the ground. Anything less won’t be acceptable.

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But with even some of his own backbenchers believing the policy won’t work, a parliamentary win is only the end of the beginning.

The next question is will he, if he has to, not just take on the Lords, but take on the European courts – and those in his own cabinet – and if necessary ignore court rulings to get flights away.

There are plenty more showdowns to come.

Politics

Local elections: How key places are predicted to vote on Thursday – and what it could mean for general election

Published

1 hour ago

April 30, 2024

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Local elections: How key places are predicted to vote on Thursday - and what it could mean for general election

More than 2,600 seats are up for election in 107 English councils on Thursday.

Now, YouGov has made its final calls for some key contests using the MRP polling method after interviewing almost 9,000 people over two weeks.

Here, exclusively on Sky News, are the headlines. We’ll start with two key battlegrounds:

Labour HQ will be very happy that YouGov says they will go red.

Hyndburn is a red wall council that has proved sticky in recent council elections. Milton Keynes is also a great political bellwether – Labour needs to be doing well here in the general election.

Then there are races that are more of a toss-up – councils that might change hands but YouGov says the races are too close to make a firm prediction.

Norwich and Tamworth are two places where Labour looks like they’re building momentum in both councils, but it’s too close to call.

Winning Norwich would be pretty seismic for Labour, given it only has one target seat, Norwich North. To be doing well in a general election, Labour only needs not to be going backwards.

Reigate is an exceptional council – local difficulties and defections in recent years make it easier to win back.

YouGov says there will also be parties possibly losing control of councils.

Lib Dem control of Hull in Yorkshire and Tory control of Walsall in the West Midlands are both on the edge – and both are big contests.

Hull in Yorkshire is where Labour is snapping at the Lib Dem’s heels. Lib Dems tell me they are worried but they’ve always just about held on in the past – it’s quite a rare head-to-head between these two.

Walsall really matters, not only because there’s a key general election seat here. But also because it’s where we will all be watching to see how much Reform UK – which is fielding candidates in 15 of the 20 wards – eats into the Tory vote and what impact that has.

Now, Thursday is not just about councils maybe changing hands. We want to know where voting patterns are changing significantly and who’s got momentum – and who hasn’t.

The big story of the night will be measuring Labour advances – and here’s where YouGov says that’s happening.

So that’s Labour momentum in the South – Milton Keynes and Thurrock; the East – Peterborough; the Midlands – Walsall – and the North.

North East Lincolnshire covers Grimsby and Cleethorpes where Sky has its target towns project, so you’re seeing lots of coverage of that race. Labour will be pleased with this – showing they’re competitive in the places they need.

And you can also see where Labour is also advancing – but YouGov says that advance is less strong.

Again, this list has areas from all around the country.

Top is Hyndburn – which you saw earlier may as a council fall Labour hands, but it’s doing so with more modest Labour momentum.

It’s a place – and places like it – that matter so much that Labour might want to be doing a bit better.

By contrast, Rugby and Tamworth are lower down the list Labour needs to worry about when they’re considering the general election. If Tories are losing there – it’s total wipe out.

Finally, here’s where YouGov projects Labour is not advancing – or where the Tories are doing okay.

The big picture in several of these is there are more parties than Labour who benefit when the Tory vote declines, including the Lib Dems.

But little change in Colchester is a small warning bell for Labour – at the general election here they need to overturn a majority of 10,000. If this happens on the night, they’ll be asking why. And Reigate, which as we said before saw defections, is predicted to have some Tory gains.

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Much of the local elections will be dominated by the mayoral contests – the biggest names standing.

But big personalities can mean politics in these races looking very different to the rest of the country.

What happens in the council elections will be poured over in far more detail, particularly by Labour, desperate to write a story that ends up with them winning at the general election.