What a possible multibillion-dollar NCAA antitrust settlement means for college sports
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Dan Murphy
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Dan Murphy
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers the Big Ten
- Joined ESPN.com in 2014
- Graduate of the University of Notre Dame
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Pete Thamel
The NCAA and its schools are considering a proposed solution to one of the largest looming obstacles remaining for a landmark settlement of the association’s antitrust cases, which could shape the future of major collegiate sports in America.
With the college sports industry aiming to avoid future antitrust lawsuits, the terms of a settlement would establish an annual process giving new players a chance to opt in or object to revenue-sharing terms currently being negotiated as part of the emerging framework for the future business model of the NCAA’s top schools.
The NCAA and its most powerful conferences are in the thick of working toward settling the House v. NCAA case this month, with sources saying leagues are planning to vote on a proposed deal by May 23. ESPN spoke to more than a dozen legal and industry experts in college sports this week to better understand the ongoing negotiations.
The tentative terms of the settlement include the NCAA paying more than $2.7 billion in past damages as well as setting up a system for its most powerful conferences to share a portion of their revenue with athletes moving forward. One major obstacle to reaching a settlement has been finding a way for the NCAA and its schools to protect themselves from future lawsuits, including potential claims they would be colluding to cap player compensation without using a collective bargaining agreement.
Steve Berman, the co-lead counsel representing athletes in the House case, told ESPN he and his team have proposed a solution that would extend the class-action settlement on an annual basis. In this scenario, athletes would receive a notice each year providing them with the opportunity to object to the terms of the revenue-share agreement. Berman said those athletes would then have the chance to attend a hearing and persuade the judge that the revenue-share arrangement was unfair in order to push for a change.
“Each year we would have a hearing where any new athlete who wasn’t previously bound [by the settlement] can come and object,” Berman said. “They would have to come and say, ‘I don’t think this is fair.’ That would be a hard burden to prove.”
An NCAA spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Some athlete organizers say they are skeptical a rolling annual opt-in mechanism would be enough to dissuade future players from filing lawsuits to push for a bigger share of money in future years.
Sources say revenue sharing with athletes would begin, at the earliest, in the summer of 2025. The settlement would also serve to resolve three other active antitrust lawsuits against the NCAA.
The details of a settlement and their implications on how schools spend their money remain in flux. But with leagues expected to vote within the next two weeks, details are growing more clear as leaders in the industry weigh their options and sort through several remaining questions about how a future business model will work.
Why would an annual hearing be necessary?
In professional sports, the amount of revenue a league shares with its players is typically negotiated through a collective bargaining agreement between the league and a players’ union. Collective bargaining agreements completed with a certified union are exempt from antitrust challenges in court. That legal protection would not apply, however, in college sports if athletes are not deemed to be employees when schools start sharing their revenue.
The NCAA and its schools have been firmly opposed to a model where athletes are viewed as employees.
There are multiple pending cases in front of the National Labor Relations Board where athletes and their advocates are arguing that players should be employees and have the right to unionize, but those cases could take years to reach a conclusion. Others such as the College Football Players Association — one of several groups seeking to organize college athletes — have proposed asking Congress to create a special status for college athletes that would allow them to collectively bargain without being employees. But again, Congress has been slow to reach consensus on any federal legislation that could help chart a course forward for college sports despite several years of requested help from the NCAA.
The current House case is a class-action lawsuit that applies to all current Division I college athletes. That means future college athletes would not be bound by the terms of a settlement reached this year. Berman and his colleagues are hoping that giving each incoming group of new players an option to join the class will provide the schools with enough confidence that their agreement will be hard to challenge with future litigation.
What are the chances of a settlement happening?
There are so many moving parts that nothing is definitive, but sources from both sides of the case appear to be optimistic they are making substantial progress toward a settlement.
The NCAA has worked furiously toward settling, including agreeing to pick up the more than $2.7 billion in past damages over the next 10 years. If the case goes to trial and a judge rules against the NCAA, the association and its schools could be on the hook for more than $4 billion in damages.
Sources told ESPN that NCAA president Charlie Baker was in Washington, D.C., on Thursday meeting with more than a half-dozen Senators, a previously scheduled trip where he’s staying engaged with current Senate leaders about potential future legislation.
The belief in the industry is that all the power conferences have the majority votes to settle, which will be up to their schools’ top administrators. There are a few individual schools that are skeptical of settling — some of those overlap with the schools that supported the idea of forming a new “super league” that would radically reshape the entire structure of college athletics. While some believe a more complete overhaul is needed, sources told ESPN there’s essentially zero chance of a super league emerging in the near future.
To the majority, the idea of a league deciding to battle Berman and fellow lead attorney Jeffrey Kessler in court and face billions in damages isn’t too appetizing — especially with the NCAA paying the back damages.
Here’s the breakdown of the landscape, according to multiple industry sources: The Big Ten is generally on board with settling. The SEC has some detractors of settling but is trending to a majority. The Big 12 is expected to follow along. There’s some dissension in the ACC, which has amplified why Florida State and Clemson are suing to leave the league, but sources say it’s unlikely the ACC will end up voting against it.
It’s also important to note here that a vote for settling doesn’t mean all of the key details will have been ironed out. The notion of capping the size of a team’s roster as part of this new business model, for example, has generated buzz in athletic director and coaching circles. But details like what a football roster would be capped at — and the fate of walk-ons — are not expected to be decided until after the vote, per sources.
“It’s so early in that conversation, it’s hard to speculate,” a source said. “There’s a lot more work there. You want to build consensus across multiple conferences.”
Also, any potential help from Congress that Baker is courting wouldn’t come until well after the settlement.
“It gives us a better hand to play with Congress,” an industry source said. “They were looking for something from us. This injects a lot in that conversation. This is a good start.”
How much money will schools be spending on future payments to athletes?
Sources told ESPN that while terms could change, the current proposal would create a spending cap for each power-conference school based on 22% of the average media rights, ticket sales and sponsorship revenue of each power-conference school. Sources say they expect that cap number to be nearly $20 million per school. Schools would not be required to spend that much money on their athletes but would have the option to share up to that $20 million figure with them.
The cap number could change every few years to reflect changes in the overall revenue of schools. It’s not clear whether some money the schools already provide to their athletes — such as an academic reward of roughly $6,000 commonly referred to as Alston payments — would count toward that cap. Multiple sources did tell ESPN that donations from boosters are not included in the revenue formula.
How will they divide that money among their athletes?
There are no specific provisions in the proposed settlement that spell out how schools should distribute money to athletes, according to sources. Each individual school would be responsible for deciding which athletes to pay and sorting through the uncertainty around how that money would apply to Title IX regulations, per multiple sources.
Title IX requires colleges to provide equal opportunities for men and women to compete in varsity sports and provide equitable benefits to those athletes. The law, written long before athletes were earning money beyond their scholarships, does not clearly state how the federal government views direct payments to athletes. Does equitable treatment require a school to give the same dollar amount to men and women athletes in the new revenue-share model? Or would the payments be viewed more as a benefit that could be proportional to the money generated by each sport? Would scholarship dollars and additional revenue-share dollars be considered in the same financial category when balancing the Title IX ledgers?
“The truth is, no one knows,” a source told ESPN on Friday.
While the Department of Education or Congress could provide answers proactively, neither has demonstrated any urgency to do so at this point. Specific interpretations of Title IX often come through litigation, and in this instance, a group of athletes might need to file a lawsuit about how their school is handling these direct payments to establish clarity.
Until then, the most conservative approach for schools to ensure Title IX compliance would mean evenly splitting the new revenue-share dollars between men and women athletes. Sources say some schools might try to balance the overall spending by increasing scholarship opportunities on their women’s teams, but it remains unclear whether that would satisfy Title IX regulations. Others might seek a competitive advantage in football recruiting, for example, by arguing that equitable treatment for athletes in the case of revenue sharing should be based on the revenue their sports generate.
Sources also said the settlement won’t require schools to share money with all athletes or share it evenly among athletes — leaving those decisions up to individual athletic departments as well.
What happens to collectives and NIL payments?
According to a source, the settlement does not include any provision that would put an end to the booster collectives that currently serve as the main vehicle for paying athletes. School officials hope a settlement will create a way to strengthen the NCAA’s ability to enforce its rules, including its rule that requires NIL payments to be for a player’s market value as opposed to the current system, which frequently serves as a workaround for “pay-for-play” arrangements. However, drawing a distinction between those two types of payments would remain a difficult, nebulous task. Any attempt to completely eliminate the NIL collective market would take a substantial change in federal law provided by Congress.
The NCAA has created new rules this spring that allow schools to be more directly involved in finding NIL deals for their athletes. New state laws are also opening doors for the schools to use their own money to pay for an athlete’s NIL rights as opposed to those funds coming from a third party. The extent to which each school continues to be involved in finding NIL opportunities for its athletes in a future with revenue sharing could vary significantly.
“The feeling in the industry is that collectives are going to be forced to stay outside the universities, and it will become more of a discrepancy of the haves and have-nots,” said an industry source. “If you bring collectives in, any money raised would count toward the cap. But schools can hit the cap and still have collectives as third parties. That’s the fear, and why there needs to be regulation.”
What does this mean for major college basketball and leagues outside power conferences?
It’s still relatively uncertain how this would impact major college basketball schools outside of the power conferences.
Schools in the Big East, which is the most prominent basketball-forward league in the country, haven’t been given any formal guidance on how a settlement would trickle down to their level.
The prevailing sentiment is that leagues outside the power conferences named in the lawsuit, including basketball-forward leagues, will have the opportunity to opt into the same 22% revenue-share formula, which would be applied to their specific revenue.
The most expensive men’s college basketball rosters heading into next season are commanding $5 million to $7 million in NIL payments, per sources. It’s too early to determine whether leagues outside the power football conferences will be able to pay that much through revenue sharing.
The uncertainty about how the power conferences will settle the antitrust claims is leaving many administrators outside those leagues in what they describe as a difficult situation.
“All of the Group of 5 is in a wait-and-see mode, which is a precarious situation,” one source told ESPN. “It is extremely tough to lead athletic departments, universities and conferences and plan for the future — whether that be facilities, NIL, etc. — when you have no seat at the table to make the rules that will impact you.”
With a long-awaited ruling in the settlement of the House case expected this week, college sports are on the precipice of a major overhaul.
While Judge Claudia Ann Wilken still needs to issue a final approval on the long-awaited settlement, a decision is expected to arrive in the near future.
Changes will come quickly to the way college sports work if the settlement is formalized. Most prominent among them will be a change in how enforcement works, as the NCAA will no longer be in charge of traditional enforcement, and a CEO will soon be put in place with powers that never existed prior.
The CEO of college sports’ new enforcement organization — the College Sports Commission — will have the final say in doling out punishments and deciding when rules have been violated, according to sources, a level of singular power that never existed during the NCAA’s era of struggling to enforce its rules.
The CEO’s hire is expected to come quickly after the House settlement is finalized and has been spearheaded by the Power 4 commissioners from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Their pick to lead the new agency will quickly become one of the most powerful and influential people in college sports. The hiring of a new CEO of the College Sports Commission already is deep in the process, per ESPN sources. The conducting of the search process before the job can officially be created is indicative of how quickly the entire billion-dollar industry will have to transform before games are played again in August. Nothing can happen formally until the judge’s decision, but the process is well underway.
The CEO of the commission will be one of the faces of this new era of college athletics. Sources have told ESPN to expect the person to come from outside college athletics and not to be a household name to college sports fans. The CEO is expected to make seven figures and, once the settlement is in place and they are hired, will have significant authority.
“All the institutions are going to have new membership agreements that we’re all agreeing to these new rules,” said an industry source familiar with the process. “The CEO is going to have responsibility to make sure everything is enforced and the governance model is sound. It’s a critically important role for the future of college sports and college football.”
The CEO is expected to report to a board, which is expected to include the power conference commissioners. The CEO will also be in charge of essentially running the systems that have been put in place — LBi Software and accounting firm Deloitte have been lined up to handle salary cap management and to manage the clearinghouse for name, image and likeness.
With the NCAA no longer involved with traditional enforcement, it will mark a distinct industry shift. (The NCAA will still deal with issues such as academics and eligibility.)
According to sources, a vision of what this leader could look like, and the extent of the position’s powers, is illustrated in drafts of so-called association documents that all schools are expected to sign to formalize the new enforcement entity. Basically, the schools need to agree that they’ll follow the rules.
While sources caution the documents that have been circulated are still in draft stage, sources say the draft includes language that the CEO will make “final factual findings and determinations” on violations of rules. The CEO will also “impose such fines, penalties or other sanctions as appropriate,” in accordance with the rules.
The schools have to accept these rulings “as final,” with the exception being if a school or athlete wants to challenge the discipline. They’d be required, per sources, “to engage in the arbitration process,” which is expected to be the sole recourse.
Per sources, when cases do end up in arbitration, under the procedures that govern arbitration, subpoena power is a potential option via the discovery process — an authority that was not available during NCAA investigations.
As college sports have zigzagged to where they are thanks to the direction of myriad lawsuits and rulings, the association agreement could also include a clause where the schools “agree to waive any right to a jury trial with respect to all disputes arising out of or relating to this agreement.” That notion would still need to be accepted by all the schools, and it’s not expected to prevent lawsuits from entities outside of the schools.
It’s worth noting that the lawsuits that have brought major changes to NCAA rules in recent years have started with attorneys general or with athletes. Congress is expected to still be needed to help create a legal framework for the new system to function without being tripped up by the current patchwork of state laws.
Enforcement has long been a thorn for the NCAA, which is now offloading one of its most controversial and least effective departments. All schools agree with enforcement as an ideal, but the issues come once the enforcement is enacted on them or their athletes.
Few coaches this generation have seen NCAA enforcement as an effective threat to follow the rules.
“It all starts with enforcement, and I’ve said this for a long time, ‘Until we have an enforcement arm put into place, we’re always going to be working sideways,'” Ohio State coach Ryan Day told ESPN on the “College GameDay” podcast recently. “I feel like before we set a rule, before we do anything, we have to put a structure in place where we can enforce rules on and off the field.”
The new organization looks to have expedited timelines and a highly compensated CEO to be the face of the decisions. (The NCAA used a committee on infractions.)
The drumbeat leading to the settlement is indicative of the past generations of behavior, as schools have been rushing to spend outside of the expected cap, with frontloading so significant that the highest-paid basketball roster is expected to have compensation totaling close to $20 million and football rosters are expected to be in the $40 million range.
Will schools fall in line once rules are put into place? Will the threat of enforcement be enough to settle down the landscape? It’s difficult for coaches to imagine player salaries going backward for 2026.
The ultimate deterrent will be stiff and consistent penalties to deter rule-breaking behavior, which have been elusive historically because of lack of NCAA enforcement prowess and the lengthy process of enforcement.
Purdue AD Mike Bobinski told ESPN in March that the punishments need to “leave a mark,” and he mentioned the New Orleans Saints’ Bountygate sanctions as an example of the type of punishment that changed behavior. (Then-Saints coach Sean Payton was suspended for the entire 2012 season as part of the penalties.)
“We’ve screwed this thing up now to the point where we have to be willing to draw a line in the sand, and that will create some pain,” Bobinski said. “There’s no two ways about it, and we’ll find out who’s just going to insist on stepping over the line. But if they do, you got to deal with it forcefully and quickly.”
He added that the Big Ten has put a lot of thought and conversation into this, as he said the mindset has to be changed to where coaches and programs can’t consider breaking the rules “worth it.”
Bobinski added: “People are working hard on this thing. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy or it’s going to be accepted right out of the box, but I’d like to think we’ve got a chance at least to do it well.”
ESPN reporter Dan Murphy contributed.
Following the Florida Panthers‘ Game 7 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday, the NHL’s final four is official: The defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers will take on the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals, while the Dallas Stars face the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference finals.
This Eastern matchup is a rematch of the 2023 conference finals, won by the Panthers in a sweep. Can Carolina win this time, or will Florida head back to the Stanley Cup Final for a third straight year?
To help get you up to speed before the series begins Tuesday, we’re here with key intel from ESPN Research, wagering info from ESPN BET and more.
Paths to the conference finals:
Hurricanes: Defeated Devils in five, Capitals in five
Panthers: Defeated Lightning in five, Maple Leafs in seven
Leading playoff scorers:
Hurricanes: Seth Jarvis (four goals, six assists), Sebastian Aho (three goals, seven assists)
Panthers: Brad Marchand (three goals, nine assists), Eetu Luostarinen (three goals, nine assists)
Schedule:
Game 1: Panthers at Hurricanes | May 20, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 2: Panthers at Hurricanes | May 22, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 3: Hurricanes at Panthers | May 24, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 4: Hurricanes at Panthers | May 26, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 5: Panthers at Hurricanes | May 28, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 6: Hurricanes at Panthers | May 30, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Game 7: Panthers at Hurricanes | June 1, 8 p.m. (TNT)
Series odds:
Panthers: -125
Hurricanes: +105
Stanley Cup odds:
Panthers: +250
Hurricanes: +300
Matchup notes from ESPN Research
Hurricanes
The Hurricanes reached the conference finals for the sixth time in franchise history and third time in the past six years. Carolina’s three conference finals appearances since 2019 are tied with the Edmonton Oilers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights for the second most in the NHL. The Dallas Stars have gone four times in the past six years.
Logan Stankoven is expected to make his Eastern Conference finals debut, after he appeared in the Western Conference finals with the Stars last year in his first NHL season. He will join Ville Leino (2009 and 2010) as the only players to play in both the Eastern and Western Conference finals in their first two seasons in the NHL (since 1994).
The Hurricanes have lost 12 straight games in the conference finals round. Their last win was Game 7 in 2006 vs. the Buffalo Sabres, when now-coach Rod Brind’Amour scored the eventual winning goal on a power play with 8:38 left in the third period after a puck-over-glass penalty. That 12-game losing streak includes being swept by the Panthers in 2023.
Carolina won its 10th playoff series under Brind’Amour since 2019; only the Lightning (11) have more series wins during that span.
Andrei Svechnikov‘s series-clinching goal 18:01 into the third period is the second-latest series-clinching goal in regulation in franchise history. Eric Staal scored 19:28 into the third period in Game 7 of the 2009 first round at the New Jersey Devils.
With their series win over Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals in the second round, the Hurricanes became the first team to eliminate the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer since the 1997 Philadelphia Flyers, who ousted Wayne Gretzky and the New York Rangers in the conference finals. Brind’Amour, then with the Flyers, had the series-clinching goal.
Panthers
The Panthers advanced to their third straight conference finals with a 6-1 win over the Maple Leafs in Game 7 in Toronto. Florida joins the Dallas Stars in 2023-25, Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020-22, Chicago Blackhawks in 2013-15, Los Angeles Kings in 2012-14 and Detroit Red Wings from 2007-09 as the only teams in the salary cap era (since 2005-06) to make it to three straight conference finals.
Florida trailed 2-0 in the series before coming back to win 4-3, marking the first time in franchise history they’ve overcome a 2-0 series deficit in a best-of-seven playoff series (they had previously been 0-5). The Panthers are the seventh reigning Stanley Cup champions in the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967-68) to win a best-of-seven playoff round after facing a 2-0 series deficit.
The Panthers now have a 4-1 record in Game 7s, including 3-0 on the road, becoming the third franchise to win each of its first three road Game 7s (along with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Minnesota Wild).
Brad Marchand had three points for the Panthers (one goal, two assists), giving him 10 career points in Game 7s, moving ahead of Alex Ovechkin (eight) for the most Game 7 points among active players, and tied him with Paul Stastny and Jari Kurri for 10th place on the all-time list. Marchand’s three-point total gives him 37 career playoff points vs. the Maple Leafs, passing Alex Delvecchio (35) for the second most by any player against Toronto in their playoff history, behind Gordie Howe (53). Marchand improved to 5-0 against the Maple Leafs in Game 7s for his career, becoming the first player in NHL history to defeat one franchise in five winner-takes-all games.
Panthers coach Paul Maurice also stayed perfect in Game 7s as a head coach, improving to 6-0. He is one of two head coaches in NHL history to win each of his first six career Game 7s, along with current Dallas bench boss Peter DeBoer (9-0).
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Greg Wyshynski
No player in Stanley Cup playoff history has tormented an opponent the way Florida Panthers winger Brad Marchand has tormented the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Panthers eliminated the Maple Leafs 6-1 in Game 7 on Sunday night in Toronto, advancing to the Eastern Conference finals against the Carolina Hurricanes. Marchand became the first player in NHL history to defeat the same opponent in at least five winner-take-all games. He moved to a perfect 5-0 in Game 7s against the Maple Leafs — winning with the Boston Bruins in 2013, 2018, 2019 and 2024, before winning with the Panthers on Sunday.
Marchand had a goal and two assists in the victory.
“I grew up a Leafs fan. I enjoy playing against the Leafs. I enjoy interacting with fans. Like, it’s fun. It’s not something I’ll forever get to do,” he said after Game 7, which was Toronto’s seventh straight loss in a Game 7.
Marchand said that he hadn’t historically played well against Toronto in Game 7s. “It wasn’t me that beat them, it was our team,” he said. But Marchand was anything but a bystander in Florida’s Game 7 win. Marchand set up two goals — including the primary assist on Eetu Luostarinen‘s critical third-period goal just 47 seconds after Max Domi scored for the Maple Leafs — and tallied an empty-net dagger for his third goal of the playoffs.
With his three-point effort, Marchand is now second all time in career playoff scoring against the Maple Leafs with 37 points, trailing only Hockey Hall of Famer Gordie Howe (53).
“I think the thing about Toronto is that their fans are very in your face. They’re aggressive. They let you hear it all the time. So it’s just fun to interact [with them]. I interact with a lot of fans and I enjoy that part of it,” said Marchand, who also passed Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin (8) for the most career Game 7 points (10) among active players.
Boston traded Marchand, its captain, to Florida at March’s NHL trade deadline, ending a 16-year run with the Bruins that included a Stanley Cup championship in 2011 and two other trips to the Stanley Cup Final.
“It was his personality that I didn’t know,” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said. “He’s moved into that Matthew Tkachuk ‘hate them’ [role]. That’s a horrible word, but it’s close. And then they get here and they’re the exact opposite person that you thought they were. He’s just a wonderful human being.”
The Panthers dominated the Leafs from the opening draw, carrying play in Game 7 after Toronto extended the series with a Game 6 road victory Friday night. After two periods, the Panthers held a 70-33 advantage in shot attempts. That included a 39-14 gap in the second period, when Florida scored its first three goals.
Marchand factored into two important ones. Just 4:03 after Seth Jones opened the scoring, Marchand’s shot was deflected by Luostarinen off of goalie Joseph Woll‘s pads, and center Anton Lundell was there to clean it up for his fourth goal of the playoffs to make it 2-0. In the third period, Marchand’s pass was tipped home by Luostarinen.
“There are moments that you need to enjoy. Careers fly by. I’ve been at it a long time. I’m very fortunate. But it’s almost over. I can’t believe how fast it’s gone by. I wish I was able to enjoy more moments,” Marchand said.
With the loss, the Maple Leafs suffered yet another postseason failure. Toronto hasn’t advanced past the second round since 2002. They infamously haven’t won the Stanley Cup since 1967, the longest drought in the NHL for any franchise — including those that have never won a Cup in their existence.
After the game, Marchand was complimentary of this Toronto team. He said of all the Game 7s he has played against the Leafs, he was most nervous about this one because “they competed way harder than they ever have.” He felt criticism of this group, which might have played its last game together, was unwarranted.
“If you look at the heat this team catches, it’s actually really unfortunate. They’ve been working at building something really big here for a while,” he said. “They were a different brand of hockey this year, and they’re getting crucified. I don’t think it’s justified.”
That said, Marchand did have a little fun at Toronto’s expense on the TNT postgame show. When asked what the difference was in the Panthers locker room from Game 6 to Game 7, Marchand said “we just had that be-Leaf” — a winking reference to one of the rallying cries of Toronto fans.
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