Stars win the race to the Western Conference finals: Keys to their rise, outlook for next matchup
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Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter
The Dallas Stars outlasted the Colorado Avalanche in double overtime to advance to the Western Conference finals.
Next up for Dallas will be the winner of the Vancouver Canucks–Edmonton Oilers series, which Vancouver leads 3-2.
Here’s a look at how the Stars got here and how they match up against either Vancouver or Edmonton.
Going farm-to-table has allowed the Stars to eat this postseason
Executives are always discussing the importance of trying to build a team through the draft and develop the sort of talent that can someday carry a franchise. The Stars have done just that recently, and this postseason has shown the value of taking such an approach.
Exactly how beneficial has the Stars’ model been? Eleven of the 21 players who’ve played at least four games for the club were drafted by the Stars. That’s tied with the Bruins for the most homegrown players to play at least one playoff game this postseason Their three top point leaders this postseason are homegrown talents — Miro Heiskanen, Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson — while four of their top five scorers were drafted by the club.
The same goes for the three players — Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell — who lead them in average ice time. In fact, five of the six players who led the Stars in ice time during this playoff run were all drafted by the team — the lone exception being trade deadline acquisition Chris Tanev, who is fourth in minutes per game.
And then there’s goaltender Jake Oettinger whose performances have seen him post a 2.27 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage this postseason. Yes, there are key contributors who came over via free agency and trade, but this is a notably homegrown crew.
The young star who keeps burning bright
When Johnston scored 24 goals and 41 points as a rookie last season, it created the belief that the Stars might have something special. What Johnston has done throughout the 2023-24 season has further cemented that notion.
He broke out for 32 goals and 65 points in the regular season while averaging 17 minutes per game and playing all 82 of them. Then came the Stanley Cup playoffs, which has allowed Johnston to take an even bigger role as the Stars have now reached the Western Conference finals for a second straight season.
Johnston has paced the Stars with a team-high seven goals, while his 11 points are third on the team. His 20:10 of average ice time is top among Stars forwards and fifth on the team overall. In fact, he was the only Stars forward who averaged more than 20 minutes per game in the playoffs, with the next closest being Robertson at 19:05.
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Wyatt Johnston finds the back of the net for a second time
Wyatt Johnston notches his second goal of the night to add to the Stars’ lead over the Avalanche.
Even when they’ve lost, they’ve still made gains
Enough is in place to suggest the Stars have had arguably the hardest route of any team that will reach the conference final round this season.
It started when they beat the defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights in the first round before beating the 2022 champions Avalanche in Round 2. Facing the two most recent Cup champions allowed the Stars to showcase their ability to come back in the series. They initially opened the first round in an 0-2 series hole against the Golden Knights only to come back and win four of the next five games. Keep in mind, the Stars had lost their past six against the Golden Knights and nine of the past 11 prior to beating them in Game 3.
As for the Avalanche, the Stars watched a three-goal lead in Game 1 disappear and the Avs win in overtime. Since then, the Stars fended off a late Avs push to win Game 2, remaining patient during what was an offensive barrage in Game 3 before orchestrating one of their strongest offensive performances in Game 4. And after a loss in Game 5 to potentially close things out early, they rallied to seal the deal in Game 6.
This shows the strength of Dallas’ system, and its faith in it even when game results don’t go its way.
A not-so-false sense of security
Let’s just say that another hallmark of the Stars’ success is their ability to play the proverbial possum.
Perhaps the most bizarre detail about this iteration of the Stars’ ascension is their Game 1 struggles. Not only did they lose their respective Game 1s to the Golden Knights and Avalanche, but the Stars have lost six straight Game 1s as a whole. That said, they’ve won three of their past four series despite getting off to a slow start.
And if that’s not enough, how about having Peter DeBoer behind the bench, who is now 8-0 all time in Game 7, tied with Darryl Sutter for the most Game 7 wins by a coach in NHL history?
Regular season record vs. EDM: 2-0-1
Anyone that’s ever wanted to watch a penalty kill’s hopes and dreams die just needs to watch the Oilers’ power play this postseason. They lead the playoffs with a 46.7% success rate. Possessing one of the NHL’s most formidable power plays is one of the reasons why the Oilers are within striking distance of a second conference finals appearance in three years. Short-circuiting that power play is critical if this is the matchup for Dallas.
There is the possibility that the Stars could have solutions for how to deal with the Oilers on the extra-skater advantage. The first step in that plan is something that has served the Stars well this postseason: They don’t take many penalties. Entering Game 6, the Stars were the least-penalized squad of any team that made it to the second round, with just 66 penalty minutes. The next closest team was the Avalanche at 79 minutes.
On the whole, the Stars’ penalty kill is operating at 72.0%, which is worst among active teams. But what could help them against the Oilers is if they could find a way to replicate the success they had against the Avalanche’s power play going into Game 5. The Avs’ power play operated at a 37.5% success rate in the first round against the Winnipeg Jets. Game 1 saw the Avs score two power-play goals in their dramatic 4-3 overtime comeback victory. But then they had a stretch with no goals in eight power-play opportunities against the Stars.
And of course, having a goalie of Oettinger’s caliber helps out any penalty kill.
Regular season record vs. VAN: 2-1-0
The Stars are averaging exactly 3.00 goals per game while the Canucks are averaging 2.73 per game, the second fewest of the teams that are still in the playoffs. Those figures help reinforce the idea that the team that can either be the first to score three goals or the one who can consistently score three goals could have the edge.
Here’s why. Finding and continuing to trust the connection between their five-player defensive structure and goaltenders are how the Canucks and Stars have found success this postseason. Of the teams that were still alive heading into Friday night, the Stars have allowed the second-fewest goals per game (2.50) while the Canucks gave up the third-fewest (2.55).
And the other detail to consider is that both teams are quite comfortable with playing in tight contests. The Stars are 4-2 in this postseason in one-goal games, though their Games 2, 3 and 4 wins against the Avalanche saw them win by an average margin of three goals. As for the Canucks, all but two of their playoff games have been decided by a single goal, both of which came in the first two contests of their series against the Nashville Predators.
While fans in Edmonton and Dallas are always singing about how they have friends in low places, only one of them has the high ground in the Western Conference finals. And that’s the Oilers after their 6-1 win Sunday in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.
With the series tied heading into Sunday, the objective for Game 3 was to gain a firm grasp of the conference finals, and the Oilers did just that by having five players with multipoint performances. As for the Stars, losing Game 3 left them trailing a series for the second time this postseason, with the only other such occurrence coming after Game 1 against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
Now that the Oilers are in control of the series, what does it mean for them going forward? What must the Stars do differently ahead of Game 4 for them to return home tied rather than a game away from elimination? Ryan S. Clark and Greg Wyshynski examine those questions while delving into what lies ahead for two teams that not only faced each other in the conference finals last season but between them have been involved in every conference final since 2020.
Edmonton Oilers
Grade: A
Much could change between now and whenever the playoffs end. But for now, the argument could be made that this was the most important playoff game the Oilers have had this postseason.
The Oilers have had numerous strong performances, such as Game 3 against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round or their final two games against the Vegas Golden Knights in the conference semifinals. But what made the Oilers’ performance in Game 3 against Dallas arguably their most important was that they found a balance between being difficult in the defensive zone while not relying on a shutout to accomplish that objective.
The Stars finished with 37 shots, 13 high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play and scored only once. Connor McDavid has repeatedly stressed that the Oilers can play defense, and that has been made clear over their past five games. But Sunday proved they didn’t need Stuart Skinner or their defensive structure to blank an opponent to win. — Ryan S. Clark
Dallas Stars
Grade: C+
The final score doesn’t reflect the majority of this game, which Dallas coach Pete DeBoer can mine for positives among the many (many) negatives and some mitigating circumstances. Having Roope Hintz warm up but not be able to go because of the foot injury he suffered from a Darnell Nurse slash in Game 2? That’s deflating. Having the on-ice officials miss a delay of game call on Brett Kulak in the first period only to have Evan Bouchard open the scoring 10 seconds later? Also deflating.
So it’s to the Stars’ credit that they got to their game at 5-on-5 in Game 3 better than they have in any game of the series, at least before Edmonton ran up the score in the third. The results weren’t there and a loss is a loss — and a loss by this margin is difficult to stomach — but their second period and the performances from some of their slumbering depth players give the Stars at least a glimmer.
However, there’s no question Edmonton has this thing in well in-hand and the Stars have to find a way to solve Skinner, which is not something I thought I’d be writing at this stage of the postseason. — Greg Wyshynski
Three Stars of Game 3
Two goals and an assist for his seventh career multigoal playoff game. Hyman’s second goal was the Oilers’ fourth off the rush, the most in one game by any team this postseason. Hyman also was plus-5 Sunday.
Bouchard scored his sixth goal of the postseason and these two were on the ice for the first two Edmonton goals. At 5-on-5 this postseason, the Oilers are outscoring their opponents 7-1, and 5-0 in this series, when Bouchard and Kulak are on the ice.
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Connor McDavid restores Oilers’ 2-goal lead
Connor McDavid finds the back of the net to restore the Oilers’ two-goal lead vs. the Stars.
3. Connor McDavid
C, Oilers
For all the talk about the lack of goals from the best hockey player in the world (which was odd because he had 20 points in 13 games and was a plus-7 entering Game 3 despite having only three goals), McDavid punched out a pair of tucks for his sixth career multigoal playoff game. Also, seeing McDavid with the puck barreling toward the net on a 3-on-1 is nightmare fuel for opponents. — Arda Ćcal
Players to watch in Game 4
Zach Hyman
LW, Oilers
To go from 16 goals last postseason to just three goals entering Game 3 of the conference finals is one way to assess Hyman. Another is to realize that he’s been the most physical player on a team that is among the tallest and heaviest in the NHL.
Hyman came into Game 3 leading the NHL with 99 hits. He remained physical Sunday by leading the way with six hits in a game that saw the Oilers continue their punishing style with 47. But to then see Hyman score two goals and finish with three points in addition to that physicality? It once again adds to the narrative that the Oilers might not only have more dimensions than last year’s team, they could be better than the team that finished Stanley Cup runner-up in 2024. — Clark
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Zach Hyman’s 2nd goal puts Oilers up 4
Zach Hyman taps home his second goal of the game to put the Oilers up 5-1 vs. the Stars.
This is the first two-game losing streak for the Dallas goaltender in the playoffs. A lot of what happened in Game 3 wasn’t necessarily on him — a Connor McDavid beauty and a Zach Hyman breakaway were among the Edmonton tallies — but outside of the third period of Game 1, he’s not been a difference-maker in this series. Oettinger came into the game leading the playoffs with 5.58 goals saved above expected, according to Stathletes. The Stars have been able to depend on him as a slump-breaker. But this is his third game with a save percentage south of .900 in the series. As the Stars try to build on some positives from this game, they need Otter to provide the foundation for it — and in the process, silence those “U.S. backup!” chants from the Oilers fans. — Wyshynski
Big questions for Game 4
Are the Oilers about to do to the Stars what they did to the Golden Knights?
Simply put, the Oilers are where hope goes to die. Teams in a championship window that have yet to win a title are always being judged on their evolution. What the Oilers did to the Stars a year ago in the conference finals by winning the last three games showed that they could close out a series after trailing. This postseason Edmonton has shown a calculated and methodical coldness when it comes to putting away opponents.
The Golden Knights won Game 3 on a last-second goal to create the belief they may have found an opening. They didn’t score again for the rest of the playoffs after being in the top five of goals per game throughout the regular season. Breaking out for six goals to open the series seemed to be a sign the Stars may have found an opening. Since then? They’ve scored only once in the last six periods while facing questions about what’s happened to another team that went from being in the top five in goals per game in the regular season. — Clark
Can Dallas make Edmonton uncomfortable at all?
Our colleague Mark Messier made this point between periods of Game 3: The Stars have yet to do anything to get McDavid or Leon Draisaitl off their games. That extends to the rest of the Oilers. Outside of an anomalous run of three power-play goals in the third period of Game 1, there have been precious few instances of the Stars carrying play for long stretches or putting a scare into Edmonton at 5-on-5.
They had that for a bit in Game 3 with a dominant second period: plus-14 in shot attempts, plus-11 in scoring chances and a 10-1 advantage in high-danger shot attempts. But they were digging out of a 2-0 hole, only managed to get one goal of their own on the board and then McDavid stuck a dagger in them with 19 seconds left in the second.
The Stars need a lead. They need zone time. They need to get their rush game going: Skinner had a .897 save percentage on shots off the rush entering the game. Edmonton is playing with a champion’s confidence. Dallas has to find a way to inject a little doubt into its opponent or this series is going to end quickly. — Wyshynski
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