What to know ahead of this week’s House v. NCAA settlement votes
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Dan Murphy
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Dan Murphy
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers the Big Ten
- Joined ESPN.com in 2014
- Graduate of the University of Notre Dame
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Pete Thamel
The trajectory of major college sports is set to bend this week to give athletes a significantly larger portion of the billions of dollars they help generate for their schools.
The industry’s top leaders will gather in the next few days to vote on the proposed terms of a landmark settlement. The deal would create a new framework for schools to share millions of dollars with their athletes in the future and create a fund of more than $2.7 billion to pay former athletes for past damages.
The settlement would also mark the end of at least three major federal antitrust lawsuits looming as existential threats to the NCAA and its schools, and would resolve the most pressing — and arguably most formidable — legal challenges facing the college sports industry. The deal would not, however, solve all of the NCAA’s problems or even provide clear answers to many crucial questions about how a more professionalized version of major college sports might look in the near future.
Here are some of the details and unsolved questions shaping conversations during what could be a monumental week in the history of college sports.
Terms of the settlement
While several important details are not yet finalized, sources have confirmed the following general structure of an agreement to settle the House v. NCAA case:
The NCAA’s national office would foot the bill for a $2.7 billion payment for past damages over the course of the next 10 years. The NCAA would generate the majority of that money partly by cutting back on the funds that it distributes to Division I schools on an annual basis.
The power conferences would agree to a forward-looking revenue sharing structure that would give schools the ability to spend a maximum of roughly $20 million per year on direct payments to athletes. The $20 million figure could grow larger every few years if school revenue grows. Each school would be left to decide how to allocate that money while remaining compliant with Title IX laws.
The plaintiffs, which could include all current Division I athletes, would give up their right to file future antitrust claims against the NCAA’s rules. This would include dropping two pending antitrust cases (Hubbard v. NCAA and Carter v. NCAA) that also have been filed by plaintiff attorneys Steve Berman and Jeffrey Kessler.
The sides would also agree to renew the class on an annual basis to include new athletes. New athletes — mostly incoming freshmen — would have to declare that they are opting out of the class in order to challenge the NCAA’s restrictions on payments in the future.
This rolling new class of athletes would, in effect, retire the most impactful tool that has been used over the past decade to chip away at the NCAA’s amateurism rules. Previously, Berman and Kessler needed only one athlete to lend his or her name to a case that would aim to remove illegal restrictions for all college athletes. Moving forward, a lawyer pushing to provide more benefits for athletes will first have to organize and gain commitments from a large group of players who opted out of the settlement.
Athletic and university administrators have long argued that their athletes are generally happy with what the schools provide and that the last decade’s lawsuits are the product of agitating lawyers and advocates. A settlement would not close the door on bargaining with athletes in the future, but it would make it less appealing for attorneys to test the legality of the NCAA’s rules without an explicit demand from a large swath of athletes.
While individual athletes could still opt out and sue the NCAA, the damages for a single athlete or small group of athletes would be far smaller. So, in practice, the House case settlement would provide schools with protection from future suits by removing the financial incentives that make these cases — which often takes years to fight — worthwhile for a plaintiffs’ attorney.
Class action cases have been an important tool to date for plaintiff attorneys because organizing college athletes — a busy and transient group of young people — is extremely difficult. (Although there are a number of groups actively attempting to form college players’ associations.) Some sports antitrust experts, such as Baruch College law professor Marc Edelman, say that, by making future class action lawsuits more difficult, this settlement would give schools ample license to collude on restricting payment to players. Edelman said this conflict could give a judge pause when deciding to approve the terms of the settlement.
Who’s in?
Attorneys representing the plaintiff class of all Division I athletes proposed terms to all defendants involved in the lawsuit in late April. To settle the case fully, the NCAA and each of the five power conferences will have to agree to the terms. Leaders from each group are expected to hold votes by Thursday.
The NCAA’s Board of Governors is scheduled to meet Wednesday.
The Big Ten presidents are planning to meet in person and vote this week as part of the league’s regularly scheduled meetings. That league has long been considered the major conference with the least amount of pushback on the vote. ACC presidents, SEC leaders and Big 12 leaders will also vote this week. In an odd twist, the Pac-12’s membership from this past season will gather virtually to vote, as the 10 departing programs will not vote in the conferences they plan to join next year. Since the Pac-12 was part of the suit as a 12-team league, the 12 presidents and chancellors of those schools will vote as a 12-school unit.
While the NCAA and conferences have to opt in, any athletes involved in the class will have an opportunity to opt out once the attorneys hammer out the details of settlement terms. Any athletes who opt out would retain the right to sue the NCAA in the future, but they would miss out on their cut of the $2.7 billion in damages. On the flip side, it’s unlikely that a current athlete who opts out would give up the opportunity to receive the forward-looking revenue share money, according to legal sources.
Next steps
If all parties agree to the broader terms of a settlement of the House case this week, their attorneys will get to work drafting the fine print of an agreement. That process can take weeks, according to attorneys with experience settling complex antitrust cases.
The judge overseeing the case, Judge Claudia Wilken of California’s Northern District, would then hold a preliminary hearing to review the terms of the settlement. If the judge approves, notice would be sent to all athletes providing them with a chance to formally object or opt out. And finally, the agreement would go back to the courthouse where Wilken would consider any arguments presented in objection before deciding whether the settlement meets her approval.
The Fontenot Case
Alex Fontenot is a former Colorado football player who sued the NCAA in late November for restricting athletes from sharing in television rights revenue. He filed his case a few weeks before Berman and Kessler (the two attorneys representing athletes in the current settlement negotiations) filed a similar complaint called Carter v. NCAA.
Both Kessler and the NCAA have argued that the two complaints are similar and should be consolidated into a single case, which would likely lead to the Fontenot case being part of the pending settlement talks. Fontenot’s attorneys do not want to consolidate and will present their argument for why the cases should be separate in a Colorado courtroom this Thursday.
Garrett Broshuis, Fontenot’s attorney, said he has concerns about how the House settlement could make it harder for future athletes to fight for more rights. Broshuis, a former pitcher at Missouri, has spent most of the last decade successfully suing Major League Baseball to help minor leaguers negotiate better working conditions.
The judge in the Fontenot case has not yet made a ruling on whether it should qualify as a class action lawsuit. If the House settlement is finalized, any college athlete would have to opt out of the settlement in order to take part in the Fontenot case. Opt-outs or objections raised during the House settlement hearings could give Judge Wilken additional pause in approving its terms.
Would Fontenot and other athletes who are working with his attorneys on this case opt out of the House settlement in hopes of pursuing a better deal in their own case?
“To the extent we can, we’re monitoring the media reports surrounding the proposed settlement,” Broshuis told ESPN this weekend. “Once the actual terms are available, we’ll closely scrutinize them. We do have concerns about what’s being reported so far, especially when it comes to the ability for future generations of athletes to continue to fight for their rights.”
Scholarship and roster limits
In the sprint to settle, there’s a bevy of details that are going to be left to college sports leaders to work out in coming months.
The inclusion of roster caps could impact college sports on the field. Right now, college sports operate with scholarship limits. For example, Division I football is limited to 85 scholarships, baseball to 11.7, and softball to 12. Meanwhile, Division I football rosters run to nearly 140 players on the high end, while baseball rosters top out around 40 players, and softball averages about 25 players.
Leaders in college sports are considering uniform roster caps instead of scholarship limits, which could be viewed as another collusive restraint on spending. This would give schools the choice to give out 20 baseball scholarships, for example, if they wished.
If rosters are capped at a certain number, the ripple effect could be more scholarships and smaller roster sizes. The viability of walk-ons, especially for rosters with dozens of them, could be at risk.
Sources caution that this won’t be determined for months, as formalizing roster caps are not part of the settlement. Sources have told ESPN that football coaches in particular will be vocal about radical changes, as walk-ons are part of the fabric of the sport. Stetson Bennett (Georgia), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) and Hunter Renfrow (Clemson) are all recent examples of transformative walk-ons.
The future of collectives
Multiple sources have told ESPN that some school leaders are hopeful the future revenue sharing model will eliminate or significantly decrease the role that NIL collectives play in the marketplace for athletes.
While an additional $20 million flowing directly from schools to athletes could theoretically satisfy the competitive market for talent and decrease the interest of major donors from contributing to collectives, experts say there is no clear legal mechanism that could be included in a settlement that would eliminate collectives. Those groups — which are independent from schools even if they often operate in a hand-in-glove fashion — could continue to use NIL opportunities to give their schools an edge in recruiting by adding money on top of the revenue share that an athlete might get from his or her school.
For the schools with the deepest pockets or most competitive donors, a $20 million estimated revenue share would be in reality more of a floor than a ceiling for athlete compensation. Most well-established collectives are planning to continue operating outside of their school’s control, according to Russell White, the president of TCA, a trade association of more than 30 different collectives associated with power conference schools.
“It just makes $20 million the new baseline,” White told ESPN. “Their hope is that this tamps down donor fatigue and boosters feel like they won’t have to contribute [to collectives]. But these groups like to win. There’s no chance this will turn off those competitive juices.”
How would the damages money be distributed?
Any athlete who played a Division I sport from 2016 through present day has a claim to some of the roughly $2.7 billion in settlement money. The plaintiffs’ attorneys will also receive a significant portion of the money. The damages represent money athletes might have made through NIL deals if the NCAA’s rules had not restricted them in the past.
It’s not clear if the plaintiffs will disburse the money equally among the whole class or assign different values based on an athlete’s probable earning power during his or her career. Some class action settlements hire specialists to determine each class member’s relative value and how much of the overall payment they should receive. That could be a painfully detailed process in this case, which includes tens of thousands of athletes in the class.
The NCAA also plans to pay that money over the course of the next 10 years, according to sources. It’s not clear if every athlete in the class would get an annual check for the next decade or if each athlete would be paid in one lump sum with some of them waiting years longer than others to receive their cut.
Are there any roadblocks to settlement expected?
In short, the NCAA’s schools and conferences will likely move forward with the agreement this week despite unhappiness in how the NCAA will withhold the revenue from schools to pay the $2.7 billion over the next decade.
There is significant pushback among leagues outside the power leagues on the proposed payment structure. According to a memo the NCAA sent to all 32 Division I conferences this week, the NCAA will use more than $1 billion from reserves, catastrophic insurance, new revenue and budget cuts to help pay the damages, sources told ESPN this week. The memo also states that an additional $1.6 billion would come from reductions in NCAA distributions, 60 percent of which would come from the 27 Division I conferences outside of the so-called power five football leagues. The other 40 percent would come from cuts the power conferences, which are the named defendants with the NCAA in the case.
The basketball-centric Big East is slated to sacrifice between $5.4 million and $6.6 million annually over the next decade, and the similarly basketball-centric West Coast Conference between $3.5 million and $4.3 million annually, according to a source familiar with the memo. The smallest leagues would lose out on just under $2 million annually, which is nearly 20% of what they receive annually from the NCAA.
(The NCAA would withhold money from six funds across Division I leagues — the basketball performance fund via the NCAA tournament, grants-in-aid, the academic enhancement fund, sports sponsorships, conference grants and the academic performance fund.)
In an e-mail obtained by ESPN from Big East commissioner Val Ackerman to her athletic directors and presidents on Saturday morning, she said the Big East has “strong objections” to the damages framework. She wrote that she’s relayed those to NCAA president Charlie Baker.
The 22 conferences that don’t have FBS football — known as the CCA22 — have also been engaged in conversations about their disappointment with the damages proposal, according to sources.
Per a source, some members of the CCA22 are planning on sending a letter to the NCAA requesting the responsibility be flipped — the power conferences contributing to 60 percent of the damages and the other 27 leagues contributing 40 percent. In her message, Ackerman wrote she expects former FBS football players will be “the primary beneficiaries of the NIL ‘back pay’ amounts” — suggesting that the damages may not be shared equally among athletes.
Ackerman’s letter does mention the widely held belief in the industry that it may be tough for any significant change: “At this stage, it is unclear how much time or leverage we will have to alter the plan the NCAA and [power conferences] have orchestrated.”
Inspirational thought of the week:
Danny Ocean: That ought to do it, don’t you think?
Rusty Ryan: [Stares away in silence]
Danny: You think we need one more?
Rusty: [remains silent with his head leaning on top of his folded arms while hunched over on the bar]
Danny: You think we need one more.
Rusty: [remains silent]
Danny: All right, we’ll get one more.
Rusty: [Blinks]
— “Ocean’s Eleven”
Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located beneath a pile of old Rene Ingoglia UMass jerseys, we believe in extending the good times, but also the bad times. That’s why we love Thanksgiving leftovers.
When you go to the ice box Saturday and open that recycled Country Crock container full of what’s left from your Aunt Nancy’s artichoke casserole, it reminds of you of Thanksgiving dinner and the laughs shared around the table with family and friends. But it also reminds you that Aunt Nancy is a bit off-kilter, because there are actually three butter containers packed with her gluten-free artichoke casserole that no one ate because she fills it with sliced grapes.
So, with apologies to Mr. Ingoglia because we don’t want him to run over us the way he did Rhode Island in 1995 or take us down the way he did so many criminals as a member of the Orlando P.D., we have to extend these rankings for one more week, despite the fact that his alma mater went on and did their dirty work early. Like Aunt Nancy, who we’re pretty sure cut up the onions for her casserole a month ahead of time. Thus, Uncle Charlie doing his dirty work to the living room commode the rest of the evening.
With further apologies to former Marshall quarterback Byron Leftwich, Iowa State receiver Dominic Overby, Central Michigan D-lineman Quavion Bird and Steve Harvey, here are the post-Week 13/pre-Thanksgiving Bottom 10 rankings.
The Minuetmen did indeed do their dirty work ahead of schedule, unleashing their final #MACtion matchup of the season not on Tuesday night, but rather Tuesday afternoon, as they hosted Boiling Green at 4:30 p.m. They lost 45-14, securing their status as the nation’s only winless team and also securing their ability to enjoy their Turkey Day dinner as they sit and watch their would-be Bottom 10 championship rivals helplessly slide backward down the hill like cars trying to drive up Beacon Hill during winter.
Georgia paid the Niners $1.9 million to come to Athens and lose 35-3. Former Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning paid them nothing to change their names to Chattanooga State.
The Panthers saw their losing streak extend to eight games after a road loss to Troy Bolton State. They end their season at Old Dominion, which is the school and not the trucking company or the country music band. Though I would totally watch a music video starring the Georgia State team traveling to face Old Dominion in an Old Dominion truck while listening to the perfect Bottom 10 theme song, Old Dominion’s “Time, Tequila and Therapy.”
The beauty of college football is that even a bummer of a season can be saved by a Rivalry Week victory, and the Cowboys can do that via a big Bedlam win over — checks notes — Iowa State?
A quick Coveted Fifth Spot reminder that “The Many Lives of Lane Kiffin” is streaming now on the all-new ESPN App. We worked really hard on that E:60 documentary all spring and summer, especially the part when he wonders aloud why he would ever leave Oxford because he and his family are so happy there. When we made that film, we had no idea that, like the onions in Aunt Nancy’s casserole, there was an expiration date.
Speaking of confusing films, the Beavs continue to make the Bottom 10 rankings feel like an early Christopher Nolan movie that continuously alters our beliefs on what constitutes reality. They won two in a row, then lost two in a row, including a defeat at the hands of …
The then-winless Bearkats klipped Oregon State, then konquered Delaware, but kouldn’t keep the wins koming as they sukkumbed to …
The then-second-ranked Blew Raiders blew by the then-ninth-ranked Bearkats 31-17 to win what probably was the season’s final true Pillow Fight Of The Week Of The Year, because this week’s season finale trip to Whew Mexico State isn’t what we thought it might be because the former Bottom 10 stalwart Other Aggies had the audacity to have already won four games, including last week’s win over …
The Minors avoided these rankings all season before reentering one week ago and then reiterating that entry via a closing-seconds 34-31 loss to New Mexico State in the 102nd edition of the Battle of I-10, which is especially impressive considering that I-10 wasn’t constructed until the 1960s.
The Golden Beagles nearly ruined Georgia Tech’s season two weekends ago, then instead had to watch as fellow former Big East member Pitt wound up spinning out the Rambling Wreck. Now BC closes out the year against another Big East refugee, Syracuse, who at the time of this story’s writing, was still surrendering touchdowns to Notre Dame in the South Bend bus parking lot, on the South Bend airport tarmac and in their recurring nightmares.
Waiting List: No-vada, San No-sé State, Pur-don’t, Arkansaw Fightin’ Petrinos, ULM (pronounced “Uhlm”), Colora-duh State, Ram spitting.
Sports
MLB execs predict the offseason: Where will top free agent pitchers land? Does Tucker get $400 million?
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Jesse Rogers
The hot stove started simmering early this MLB offseason — and shows no signs of slowing down.
The Seattle Mariners kicked the winter off by re-signing Josh Naylor, followed by the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles pulling off an early trade. Then the Texas Rangers and New York Mets upped the ante with a Marcus Semien-for-Brandon Nimmo swap before the Boston Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday.
Before things heat up again after Thanksgiving, we polled 16 MLB executives on what’s to come the rest of the winter, from which teams will be busiest to where the biggest free agents will land. (Respondents were given the choice to skip any questions, so not every answer has 16 votes.)
Will Kyle Tucker get more than $400 million, and who will give it to him?
Survey says: $400 million? Yes 6, No 10
Who will sign him? New York Yankees 6, Los Angeles Dodgers 4, Toronto Blue Jays 3, Detroit Tigers 1, Philadelphia Phillies 1, Orioles 1
The good news for Tucker is that nearly every executive who voted “No” on him making more than $400 million said it would still be close. If not for a couple of second-half injuries this season, it probably wouldn’t even have been a debate (his 143 OPS+ in 2025 still matched his total from 2023, when he finished fifth in MVP voting). In fact, one executive opined that if Tucker was healthy the entire season, the above dollar figure would start with a five, not a four.
“I see it at $350 million over 10 years,” one exec said. “My prediction is the Yankees.”
“I don’t think he gets to $400 million,” another said. “Seems to me the right number will be in the mid-300’s … but as we always say, it only takes one, so I wouldn’t be completely shocked if it ended up starting with a four. I think he ends up with the Yankees.”
“My prediction is that he will sign an [Alex] Bregman-type deal with a shorter-term, higher AAV and opt-out(s) in hopes of having a monster season in ’26 or ’27 and hitting the [free agent] market again coming off a better year,” another voter responded. “The Yankees seem well positioned for a deal like that.”
The Yankees kept coming up in answers, but they weren’t the only ones. One respondent thought Baltimore or Detroit could put more than $400 million in Tucker’s pocket and the voter who chose Philadelphia did it with the caveat of Kyle Schwarber leaving. But coming in second in our poll were the back-to-back World Series champions.
“I think he does get there on a longer deal with lower AAV with opt-outs,” an executive said. “Hate to say it, but probably Dodgers.”
Another added: “The Dodgers have need in the outfield. Some of their hitters are getting older. They have everything they need on the mound. Now they need to help their offense.”
Where will the top 3 free agent starters with MLB experience sign?
Survey says:
Framber Valdez: Blue Jays 5, New York Mets 4, Orioles 4, Tigers 1, Houston Astros 1
Dylan Cease: Mets 6, Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 2, Atlanta Braves 2, Chicago Cubs, 1, San Francisco Giants 1
Ranger Suarez: Red Sox 4, Phillies 4, Blue Jays 3, Braves 2, Giants 1
The Blue Jays showed up as possibilities for each pitcher, as executives believe they will add to their team after making the World Series and coming so close to winning it all this past season.
“I could see the Blue Jays adding a lefty like Valdez,” one executive said. “He fills a need and might send them back to October baseball.”
The Mets weren’t far behind in the voting, considering their starting staff was a mess late in the year and they relied on rookies down the stretch. The only pitcher several voters believe even has a chance at returning to his old team is Suarez.
“With [Zack] Wheeler out, I think Suarez goes back to Philadelphia,” another exec said. “It’s kind of like Schwarber. They need him more than he needs them.”
A voter who chose Atlanta for Cease called it “low-hanging fruit” since he’s from the area, adding: “The Battery/new ballpark has been a financial boost for them.”
Who will sign Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai?
Survey says: Giants 5, Yankees 3, Dodgers 3, Cubs 2, Blue Jays 1, San Diego Padres 1
The usual suspects, plus Toronto, show up here — most of these teams have been perennial favorites for Japanese players coming over to MLB for the first time. These teams are among those with a leg up on the rest of the competition as they’ve put time, money and energy into recruiting in Japan. At 27 years old, Imai is the right age for a multiyear deal and should benefit from the success of others from Japan that came before him.
“The Giants have been in the hunt [for a Japanese pitcher] in the past; pairing Imai with Logan Webb makes a ton of sense,” one executive said.
Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers were tied for the second-most votes, as they have secured the top three Japanese free agents over the past two offseasons in Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki.
“Dodgers,” another said. “Seems like they have that market somewhat cornered.”
Chicago, who extended a qualifying offer to Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga this winter that was accepted, is also in the mix.
“The Cubs have already stated they need more pitching, and they should have room even after Imanaga returned,” another executive stated.
Which of these hitters — Schwarber, Bregman, Cody Bellinger and Pete Alonso — will return to their original team?
Survey says: Schwarber 7, Alonso 4, Bregman 4
What’s most interesting is not who got votes for this question — Schwarber makes sense as the leading answer here — but that not a single person has Bellinger returning to the Yankees. He provided some much-needed balance to their lineup, so if he walks, perhaps it does open the door for Tucker in New York — as respondents indicated in their answers to the earlier question.
As for Schwarber, Alonso and Bregman, voters had similar lines of thinking: These are players who are crucial to their respective teams, which paves the way for a potential reunion.
“The Phillies need Schwarber more than he needs them, so in pure contract terms, they may have to overpay,” one executive said. “But he’s worth it. He’ll stay.”
“At this point, Alonso is synonymous as a Met,” another voter said. “He’s the most popular player. And he can hit. They need him.”
“Bregman provided so much [leadership] for Boston and that park is perfect for him,” another executive said.
Which free agent contract is going to raise the most eyebrows?
Survey says: Edwin Diaz 2, Bo Bichette 2, Schwarber 2, J.T. Realmuto 2, Zack Littell 1, Lucas Giolito 1, Munetaka Murakami 1
There’s no real consensus here, but one commonality between the players listed above: Nearly all of them are over 30 years old.
Age is something that always gives teams some pause — and the only reason Schwarber shows up here: “The contract length for an aging designated hitter will be the most surprising part,” one voter said.
An executive who chose Diaz in this category simply noted the length of the potential deal and the volatility of the position.
“Diaz is set to cash in, but how many times do we see that backfire for closers?” another voter brought up. “Not always, but often.”
Bichette and Murakami are the only two players given as answers to this question who aren’t yet 30 years old — but that doesn’t mean they don’t have concerns of their own.
“I’m just thinking about the years for Bichette and where he’ll play and all that,” one executive said. “His contract will be most interesting to me.”
“My pick is Murakami,” another said. “Seems like the league is mixed on him due to swing-and-miss concerns.”
What will the Tigers do with Tarik Skubal this offseason — trade him, extend him or let it play out?
Survey says: Let it play out 10, trade him 3, sign/extend him 0
Letting it play out might have been the easy answer here — though, it could also easily be the right one. It kicks the Skubal decision down the road and opens a just-in-case door: If the Tigers’ 2026 season isn’t going well, then dealing him at the July trade deadline will make it a lot easier to swallow.
“I doubt they can afford to extend him, but they also know they can’t win the division without him. I think they roll with him in ’26 unless they get blown away with a trade concept,” one executive said.
Of course, letting the situation play out comes with its own set of risks.
“The longer they wait to trade him, the stickier it gets,” another voter stated. “Value could go down or perhaps worse, if you’re ownership. He gets off to another Cy Young start and fans start screaming even louder to sign him.”
Of course, signing him now would undoubtedly be nice for Detroit fans, but not one respondent thought that would happen this winter.
Who is the top trade candidate of the winter not named Skubal?
Survey says: Joe Ryan 2, Freddy Peralta 2, Ketel Marte 2, MacKenzie Gore 1, Steven Kwan 1, Luis Robert Jr. 1, a Pirates starter 1
There is no shortage of trade candidates this offseason, as there are several teams seemingly willing to move pitching. That’s not the case every winter, but for whatever reason — team friendly salaries, players nearing free agency, payroll shedding — we might see more movement on the mound than usual ahead of the 2026 season. (Two respondents from our poll chose Gray for this question, and they proved to be right after Tuesday’s deal sent the hurler to Boston.)
“The Twins were in the trade market over the summer, testing the waters on Ryan,” one executive said. “I think that leads to him getting moved this winter.”
“I don’t know if Peralta’s salary [$8 million] makes him more or less desirable for the [Milwaukee] Brewers to move him, but they’ll probably do the opposite of what everyone is thinking!” one exec half-joked. “And it’ll work.”
One respondent coyly mentioned a Pirates starter getting moved — but didn’t specify which one. Several mentioned keeping an eye on the Rangers as they look to cut payroll, though the trade of Semien for Nimmo didn’t necessarily accomplish that in the short term. The Rangers don’t seem to be done with their wheeling and dealing.
There were also a couple of surprising answers.
“Sleeper name: Tyler Glasnow,” said one voter. “Feels like the Dodgers can go to Ohtani, Yamamoto, [Blake] Snell, Sasaki, [Emmet] Sheehan and others and use Glasnow on the trade market to cover up holes.”
And what’s an MLB offseason without a blockbuster trade prediction.
“Blockbuster alert: Ketel Marte,” one voter simply stated.
Which smaller-market team will make the most noise this winter?
Survey says: Pittsburgh Pirates 5, Cincinnati Reds 3, Kansas City Royals 3, Miami Marlins 3, Tampa Bay Rays 2
Stop if you’ve heard this before, Pirates fans: Ownership is going to spend. Actually, you probably have not heard that before this winter, but that sentiment has picked up steam early this offseason. Even agents are feeling cautiously optimistic about it.
“The Pirates better pair a good hitter or two with [Paul] Skenes or else we all know what happens,” one executive said. “There’s been enough chatter. I vote for them.”
Either way, there has been more chatter in general about small-market teams spending this winter. Are the Reds one big bat away? Will the Marlins’ surprising season lead them to some aggressive signings? And everyone knows the Royals need hitting.
“Both Pittsburgh and Kansas City have top-of-the-game superstars that they need to support with more money,” one voter said. “The noise from Pittsburgh has already started but I will go with Kansas City because I think they spend the most on one player.”
“Remember, the Rays have new ownership,” another executive said. “It may not show up in payroll this offseason, but it should soon.”
One voter who chose the Reds didn’t mince words: “Their lineup was not very good; they likely know they need to upgrade their position player group. Schwarber went to high school in the Cincinnati suburbs.“
Maybe it’s the year of the small market!
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Greg Wyshynski
Thanksgiving in the USA. Turkey, pumpkin pie, that parade with all the giant balloons and the time-honored tradition of NHL teams in playoff seeds breathing just a bit easier.
Since the NHL switched to the wild-card format in 2013-14, 77% of teams in a playoff position on Turkey Day go on to make the Stanley Cup playoffs (excluding the two COVID-impacted seasons), according to ESPN Research. In half of those 10 seasons, 13 of 16 teams remained in playoff spots by season’s end. There has never been fewer than 11 or more than 13 Thanksgiving playoff teams that eventually made the cut.
In other words, there are always teams on the outside who get in.
Last season, the Montreal Canadiens (five points back), Ottawa Senators (three back), St. Louis Blues (two back) and Edmonton Oilers (one back) were not in playoff spots at Thanksgiving and still made the postseason tournament. Over the past 10 non-COVID seasons, teams on the outside that eventually made the postseason where 2.8 points back of a playoff seed.
For some teams, it’s time to panic. But panic isn’t all-encompassing. There are specific kinds of it, and different intensities to it.
Here is the American Thanksgiving NHL Panic Index, beginning with the teams that are feeling the least indigestion at the dinner table.
Complete nirvana
They have reached a stage of spiritual enlightenment. As the Buddha taught, if one scores all the goals (4.00 per game through 22 games, best in the NHL) and allows the fewest (2.18 goals against per game, best in the NHL) then that is the path to many victories. They are in a state where suffering has been extinguished, with an .841 points percentage and one regulation loss as of Nov. 24.
Stathletes has the Avalanche with the best percentage chance of making the playoffs, winning their conference and eventually capturing the Stanley Cup. Namaste, Nathan MacKinnon.
Zero panic
Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning
These three teams are right where many expected they’d be.
The Lightning entered Tuesday atop the Atlantic Division, which is no small feat considering the injury and production concerns they’ve had with some of their impact players — Brayden Point, to be specific. Or perhaps this is just an indictment of the Atlantic Division’s overall quality.
The Hurricanes have the goal differential of a Rod Brind’Amour team (plus-12) except this time it’s their deep offense outpacing their defense, which has missed Jaccob Slavin for all but two games.
Like the Lightning, the Stars have hung tough despite injuries to players such as Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, thanks in no small part to Jason Robertson (13 goals), Mikko Rantanen (10 goals) and Wyatt Johnston (11 goals), a trio who scored roughly 49% of the team’s goals through 22 games.
0:40
Jason Robertson lights the lamp for Stars
Jason Robertson nets goal for Stars
Panicked, but relatively pleased
Minnesota Wild
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth
Washington Capitals
The key word here is “relatively.” Every team here has something it can hang its hopes on.
Like the Flyers having located a competent goaltender (Dan Vladar) to play in back of a Rick Tocchet system that’s seventh in expected goals against at 5-on-5. Like the Islanders combining a jolt of adrenaline from the play of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer with dominant goaltending from Ilya Sorokin to place in the top three in the Metro.
Like the Capitals being right in the Metro mix thanks to their own stellar netminder Logan Thompson (12.6 goals saved above expected) and a dominant offensive start from Tom Wilson — two guys doing everything they can to make the Canadian Olympic team.
The Mammoth are right where they want to be: In a playoff position with young stars such as Logan Cooley in full bloom. The Penguins are where no one expected them to be, as MVP-caliber performances from Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have propelled the offense while surprisingly stout goaltending has done the job defensively.
The Wild, meanwhile, enter Turkey Week on a heater, in a season that has featured both a healthy (and soon-to-be handsomely paid!) Kirill Kaprizov and the emphatic arrival of Jesper Wallstedt, who went 6-0-2 in his first eight starts with a .935 save percentage, a 1.94 goals-against average and a seismic impact on the rookie of the year race.
Panicked until they’re healthy again
Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights
Winnipeg Jets
All of these teams have played through major injuries to major players so far this season.
The back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Panthers were already going to be missing Matthew Tkachuk for the first few months of the season when captain Aleksander Barkov was injured in his first practice, costing him the regular season and potentially the postseason. They’ve treaded water thanks to the outstanding offensive play of Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart (13 goals each), who are doing their part until Tkachuk returns in the coming weeks.
The Devils are doing what they can without Jack Hughes, who needed surgery on his hand after a bizarre accident involving broken glass at a team dinner in Chicago. They’ve obviously done this before, but losing a guy with 10 goals in his first 17 games for up to two months wasn’t ideal. Ditto the Jets and back-to-back Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, who’s out for a month after corrective surgery on a knee issue.
The Bruins (Charlie McAvoy) and Kings (Drew Doughty) are both missing marquee defensemen. The Senators are the happiest of this bunch: Captain and burgeoning podcaster Brady Tkachuk, who was lost to a thumb injury after just three games, is expected back in the lineup shortly. He returns to a Senators team that remained in the playoff mix in his absence.
2:30
Tkachuk brothers announce new podcast on McAfee
Brady and Matthew Tkachuk tell Pat McAfee about their motivation to start a podcast together.
Panicked because the goaltending stinks
Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues
It’s not exactly headline news that the Oilers’ goaltending stinks, what with the whole “we’re not sure who is starting a Stanley Cup Final elimination game” thing last June against Florida.
But so far this season it has gone from being an Achilles heel to a gangrenous leg. Edmonton has the second worst save percentage (ahead of Nashville) and is fourth worst in the NHL in goals saved above expected. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard continue to have their moments of respectable average play — and atrocious play, like Skinner giving up four goals on eight shots to Dallas on Tuesday — but stop us if you’ve heard this before: a Connor McDavid team is being undercut by its goaltending.
The Blues are another team whose goaltenders haven’t played well off the hop. Stathletes has Jordan Binnington at minus-8.75 goals saved above expected in all situations, and crease-mate Joel Hofer at minus-6.62. St. Louis is 29th in save percentage (.869) through 23 games.
The problem for the Blue Jackets and Red Wings is imbalance. Detroit’s Cam Talbot has played just above expected in 13 starts, putting up respectable numbers while going 9-3-0. But John Gibson, acquired from Anaheim to solidify the tandem, has been anything but solid in 12 appearances, with a minus-3.16 goals saved above expected and what could end up being the worst save percentage of his career.
Meanwhile, Columbus watched Jet Greaves rocket out of the gate to take the starting goaltender job. He has a 7-4-3 record in 14 starts with a solid .904 save percentage, but his numbers have come back to the pack just a little. The bigger issue is that veteran Elvis Merzlikins has seen his early returns (4-1-0, .915 save percentage in October) squandered in losing his next four appearances. Columbus went from a team save percentage in the top five down to 16th overall (.896).
The problem for the Canadiens? Early-season bubbles popping. Rookie Jakub Dobes had a promising start for the Habs, going 6-0-0 in October with a .930 save percentage to help balance out the terrible season that Sam Montembeault is having (.852 save percentage, minus-12.92 goals saved above expected). But Dobes has had a rough November: 1-2-3 with an .843 save percentage behind an increasingly injured Canadiens team. He’s now playing well below expected (minus-5.72 goals saved above expected).
Regression panicked
Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Kraken
PDO is a hockey metric that combines a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage into a single number. It’s considered a measure of “puck luck,” while also acting as a predictor of sorts: Teams with an uncharacteristically high PDO are bound to regress to the mean, while those below average should swing upward at some point.
Entering Tuesday, the Blackhawks were third in PDO (1.029) at 5-on-5 after finishing 25th last season. Much of that credit goes to goalie Spencer Knight‘s career-redefining season, leading the league in goals saved above expected (plus-15.5, per Money Puck) and sporting a .924 save percentage. Offensively, they’re shooting 12.6%, second in the NHL. Chicago shot 11.2% last season. If Knight is as good as he has looked in the past 15 games, the Blackhawks might stick around for a bit.
The Kraken are fifth in PDO (1.023) thanks to the best 5-on-5 save percentage in the league (.938). Raise your hand if you expected Matt Murray (.952), Philipp Grubauer (.935) and Joey Daccord (.927) to do what they’ve been doing at even strength this season. Anyone? Anyone? The Lane Lambert effect as head coach does mean the Kraken are a bit offensively challenged, ranking 18th in team shooting percentage (10.7%). The goaltending has them in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving. Will it hold?
The Sharks are right behind the Kraken (1.022) after 23 games, fueled by the fifth-best shooting percentage in the league — thanks, Macklin “20.9%” Celebrini — and goaltending by Yaroslav Askarov, who Money Puck has near the top of the league in goals saved above expected (plus-8.51). Youth and depth might catch up with them eventually, but boy are they fun.
Then come to the Ducks at seventh in PDO (1.020). They were eighth in save percentage at 5-on-5 though 22 games, thanks to Vezina Trophy-worthy netminding by Lukas Dostal (.917 even-strength save percentage) papering over the second-worst 5-on-5 expected goals against in the league. Offensively, they’re a juggernaut, averaging 3.59 goals per game in 22 games, second only to Colorado. There are reasons to believe that offense will keep rolling. The Ducks’ playoff fate depends on the other end of the ice.
1:05
Cutter Gauthier nets OT winner for the Ducks
Cutter Gauthier scores the winning goal to give the Ducks a 4-3 overtime victory over the Golden Knights.
Existential dread
When things went poorly for the Sabres in their first 22 games, like when they dropped eight of nine games, the reaction was “here we go again.”
When things go well for the Sabres, like when they won four of five games heading into Thanksgiving, the reaction was the most guarded optimism imaginable with an impending sense of doom — which is understandable when every season since the last playoff appearance in 2011 has either been a tease or a tank.
Through 22 games, Money Puck gave the Sabres a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs. But Stathletes put their odds at a robust 33.4%. There’s no better example of the divergent paths ahead for this Buffalo team.
If Tage Thompson continues to dominate, if Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin remain a bedrock duo, if they can squeeze out enough goaltending success … maybe the drought ends? Or maybe this ends up being the 15th consecutive “wait ’til next year.”
Extremely panicked
Calgary Flames
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Entering Wednesday night, there was only one team in the Eastern Conference with a points percentage under .500: The Maple Leafs (.477 in 22 games), who were last in the East. Star center Auston Matthews played in only 17 of those games. His return will help, and they’re certainly missing other injured players like Chris Tanev.
But there are so many other malfunctions around the Leafs — middling 5-on-5 play, terrible special teams, below-average goaltending and a goals-against average near the league’s basement — that it’s hard to diagnose what needs to change to turn things around. Although the firing of coach Craig Berube has been a popular method discussed by fans and media.
Calgary has dug itself a considerable hole in a suddenly more competitive division. But the Flames (.396 save percentage) recently located a pulse after president of hockey operations Don Maloney told Sportsnet the team isn’t “throwing in the towel” or looking at a total teardown of its roster. Whether that’s the right tact in the long run is up for debate. But it wasn’t great news for fans who were hoping their contending teams might add someone like Nazem Kadri to the mix via trade.
Unlike the Leafs (4.3%) and Flames (5.3%), the Rangers had a solid chance (42.7%) of making the postseason, according to Stathletes. When they hunker down defensively in front of Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers can be a very effective defensive team. But they’ve been a mess offensively since the start of the season, with players like captain J.T. Miller failing to hit their typical point paces. They’re inconsistent and haven’t soothed concerns about their depth. But it’s that lack of offense that has the Blueshirts a little jittery about their fortunes this season.
0:27
Igor Shesterkin robs Avalanche with save
Igor Shesterkin robs Avalanche with save
Beyond panicked
Nashville Predators
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks were the first team to blink this season. After amassing a .435 points percentage through 23 games, president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford told Postmedia on Tuesday that the Canucks need to get younger and confirmed that they were considering trades for veteran pending free agents like Evander Kane.
“Use whatever word people like, whether it’s somewhat of a rebuild, not a full blown rebuild, but a rebuild-retool, whatever,” Rutherford said. “It’s the position we’ve been in since the J.T. Miller trade [last season].”
Are the Predators next? GM Barry Trotz told ESPN this week that the team’s next seven games will determine his approach to the rest of their season. He’s receiving calls from other teams about his veteran players. He has had talks with their agents about what could be down the road. They’re not open for business yet, but with a .364 points percentage after 22 games, how long before that happens?
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