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Jun 13, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

Despite an injury scare that cost him three games over the weekend, Juan Soto has returned to the Yankees’ lineup — and his team is again No. 1 in our MLB Power Rankings.

Last week, New York pushed Philadelphia to No. 2. The Phillies remain in that spot, followed by the Orioles, Dodgers and Guardians — meaning no shake-up in this week’s top 5. Among the top 10, the Padres crack the list, dropping the Twins to No. 11. And just to save some of you a scroll, yes, the White Sox retain a firm grasp on No. 30.

Our expert panel has ranked every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 10 | Preseason rankings

Record: 49-21

Previous ranking: 1

Juan Soto’s three-game absence over the weekend exposed an uncomfortable reality: The Yankees’ lineup isn’t deep at the moment. Soto and Aaron Judge are arguably the two best hitters in the world. They’re also the team’s only regulars with an OPS higher than .779. The Yankees, as a result, scored four runs over 20 innings in their first two games without Soto before producing six in the series finale to avoid a sweep. Trent Grisham was the hero that night, silencing the doubters with a three-run home run. It made for a memorable moment and was the kind of contribution the Yankees need from the supporting cast to stay on top of the American League East with the Orioles right on their heels. — Castillo

Record: 46-21

Previous ranking: 2

J.T. Realmuto will miss about a month after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. That timetable sets up a possible return after the All-Star break, if everything goes well, and pushes backup Garrett Stubbs into the starting role. While Stubbs hit well as the backup in 2022, he has struggled at the plate the past two seasons — obviously in limited duty since Realmuto plays so often. Rafael Marchan, who played briefly for the Phillies in 2020 and 2021, was called up to back up Stubbs, and Marchan is a defense-first catcher. The Phillies’ offense already was struggling in June as compared to April and May, so without much offense expected now from their catchers, others will have to step up. — Schoenfield

Record: 45-22

Previous ranking: 3

Cedric Mullins is a beloved veteran in Baltimore. The center fielder was around for the lean years — before the franchise’s rebuild reached the contending phase last season. He peaked with a career year in 2021, when he represented a 52-win club at the All-Star Game. Three years later, he is playing his way out of the Orioles’ starting lineup. Mullins, 29, is slashing .182/.229/.321 with just 57 weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Since May 1, he is 13-for-91 (.143) with a .388 OPS, 28 strikeouts, 4 walks and 4 extra-base hits. The Orioles’ lineup is more than deep enough to give Mullins time to rebound — no other regular has a wRC+ lower than 114 — but his struggles could eventually prompt a change in center field. — Castillo

Record: 42-27

Previous ranking: 4

In hopes of addressing a generally unproductive bottom half of the lineup, the Dodgers acquired super utility man Cavan Biggio, son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, from the Blue Jays on Wednesday. The younger Biggio gives the Dodgers an extra left-handed bat, made necessary by the absence of third baseman Max Muncy, and some additional versatility against righties. Against lefties, though, it seems the Dodgers are going to continue to give opportunities to Chris Taylor, who is slashing only .100/.196/.111 in 103 plate appearances. One way or the other, the Dodgers are eventually going to have to figure out the Nos. 7 to 9 spots in their lineup. Yes, these are first-class problems. — Gonzalez

Record: 43-23

Previous ranking: 5

Jose Ramirez remains on a ridiculous RBI pace, with 62 through the team’s first 65 games. (He played in 64 of them.) That’s a 155-RBI pace over 162 games, with the most recent 150-RBI season coming from Alex Rodriguez with 156 for the Yankees in 2007. The last players with even 140 RBIs were Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard in 2009, each with 141. Ramirez obviously has been great with runners in scoring position, as 12 of his 18 home runs have come with runners on base. But it also helps that Cleveland has more of an old-school offense, without much power in the top two spots in the lineup, creating more RBI opportunities for him. — Schoenfield

Record: 40-28

Previous ranking: 6

Rhys Hoskins highlighted during a recent conversation the baseball intelligence of catcher William Contreras, who just keeps getting better and better and must be included in any discussion about who is the best catcher in baseball. Contreras’ rate of swinging at pitches outside the zone has dropped from 30.2% in 2021 to 24.1% in 2024. His rate of contact has increased, his wRC+ is at a career high and he is on a pace to accumulate more than 40 doubles and 20 homers. He has progressed from negative numbers in pitch framing to neutral. The Brewers have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball: Following the departure of manager Craig Counsell and the trade of Corbin Burnes, they are threatening to run away from other National League Central teams, and Contreras has played a major role in that. — Olney

Record: 39-30

Previous ranking: 8

The Royals have been pretty fortunate on the injury front this season, but no team gets through a campaign unscathed. Sure enough, Kansas City has started to lean on its Triple-A roster for reinforcements. Hunter Renfroe landed on the IL with a fractured left big toe after fouling off two pitches into the same spot on his foot in the same at-bat. Adam Frazier was placed on the bereavement list. Up from Omaha are outfielder Drew Waters and first baseman Nick Pratto, two hitters who were not so long ago viewed as long-term solutions for the big club. Strangely enough, Pratto’s first 2024 MLB appearance came on the mound. He threw a scoreless ninth against the Yankees in a New York runaway on Tuesday, the day he was recalled. He had yet to log an inning in the field or a plate appearance when he took to the mound. Bullpen depth? — Doolittle

Record: 35-30

Previous ranking: 7

The offensive struggles are teamwide, but let’s focus on Austin Riley. He has finished seventh, sixth and seventh in the MVP voting over the past three seasons while averaging 36 home runs and 99 RBIs. Entering Wednesday, however, Riley is hitting .225 with three home runs and has gone 21 games without a homer. He did miss 13 games in May with intercostal inflammation, so you have to factor that into his production, but his basic metrics in hard-hit rate, walk rate and strikeout rate are the same as last season. He is struggling against four-seam fastballs, hitting just .111 against them, although the new bat-tracking data shows him with elite bat speed (91st percentile). On the surface, it all looks fixable. — Schoenfield

Record: 40-30

Previous ranking: 9

As the Mariners wait to see what develops with Bryan Woo‘s latest arm trouble, we can pause to marvel at what the Seattle rotation has done since Woo returned from the IL on May 10. Led by his 1.07 ERA over six starts during that span, Seattle has topped the majors with 19 quality starts while posting a 3.38 ERA and a collective strikeout-to-walk ratio of right about 5-to-1. The Mariners have pushed their lead in the AL West to 6½ games over the defending champion Rangers during that time. So, Seattle has built up a little buffer, but you’d hate to see a disruption to the unit that has been the biggest driver of the M’s surge. — Doolittle

Record: 37-35

Previous ranking: 11

On May 25, Fernando Tatis Jr. homered but didn’t perform his patented stutter-step as he approached third base. Asked about it afterward, Tatis, who had been riding an 8 for 47 slump, told reporters he is “not swaggy right now.” Well, that just so happened to be the first of what became a 17-game hitting streak that didn’t end until Wednesday. During that stretch, Tatis slashed .400/.447/.686 with 10 extra-base hits. His OPS increased by 99 points, all the way up to .835, making him seem like a lock to start the All-Star Game for a National League team that looks quite thin in the outfield. So, yeah, it’s safe to say Tatis is “swaggy” again. — Gonzalez

Record: 36-32

Previous ranking: 10

Ryan Jeffers isn’t the flashiest name on the Twins’ roster, but he might be the player most deserving of All-Star recognition this season. The catcher/DH was a steady force while Minnesota dealt with injuries to key contributors over the season’s first two months. His 12 home runs are tied for second among qualified catchers. His 131 wRC+ is fifth. Salvador Perez and Adley Rutschman are virtual locks to make the AL All-Star team as catchers. The 27-year-old Jeffers could join them for the first time. — Castillo

Record: 34-34

Previous ranking: 13

The Red Sox are addicted to .500. They have been 24-24, 26-26, 27-27, 28-28, 29-29, 30-30, 31-31, 32-32, 33-33 and now 34-34 this season. Being that average is a minor feat considering all the injuries they have encountered. It also won’t be good enough to reach the postseason in a deep American League. The Red Sox will have to string together some wins at some point to remain in the wild-card race. Pitching hasn’t been the issue, as Boston’s 3.39 staff ERA is the fifth best in the majors. It’s on the offense to provide more consistency, with Triston Casas still out indefinitely. Then again, based on owner John Henry’s recent comments to The Financial Times, Red Sox fans probably shouldn’t expect more than average. — Castillo

Record: 32-35

Previous ranking: 12

The Rangers continue to tread water while waiting for their IL list to shrink. If all goes well (which hasn’t been the case often this season for Texas), by the time the Power Rankings are posted next week, all of Josh Jung, Max Scherzer, Jon Gray and Corey Seager could be back in the lineup. Texas will still be waiting on Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom and Evan Carter, among others, but it’s a start. With Seattle’s lead in the division growing and a rugged schedule ahead for Texas over the next three weeks, the defending champs need all the help they can get. — Doolittle

Record: 33-35

Previous ranking: 21

Cincinnati was viewed as a possible sleeper by a lot of talent evaluators in the last offseason because the Reds spent money in free agency to augment their young core — and so far, Cincinnati is hanging close to .500 despite some mediocrity from its newly signed veterans. Frankie Montas has a 4.55 ERA in 12 starts, averaging just 4⅓ innings per start, and Nick Martinez has a 4.50 ERA. Jeimer Candelario is batting .234 in his first 59 games, albeit with some power. The Reds have some hope for the remaining schedule because they’re likely to return a lot of injured players — but also because they can reasonably expect better performance from the free agent imports. — Olney

Record: 31-38

Previous ranking: 17

The Astros’ run prevention has trended gradually upward over the past month. While the offense remains above average in the scoring column, the trend on that side of the ball hasn’t been as sharp, especially for a team that needs to string together wins in a hurry. The shin bruise that sidelined Kyle Tucker didn’t help, but with the MVP contender nearing a return, this might be the last chance for Houston’s lineup to catch fire before hard decisions need to be made at the trade deadline. We haven’t seen Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez all clicking at the same time this season. If Houston is going to salvage anything out of 2024, that needs to happen very soon. — Doolittle

Record: 34-35

Previous ranking: 20

The Giants have navigated through a lot of injuries and inconsistency through the season’s first 2½ months, but their ace, Logan Webb, continues to be a constant. Webb limited the struggling Astros to three runs in six innings on Wednesday to put his ERA at 3.02 through his first 15 starts. The ground ball artist boasts the second-best home-run rate in the sport, allowing just four in 92⅓ innings. He is well on his way to crack his first All-Star Game after missing out on last year’s event because of his pitching schedule. — Gonzalez

Record: 32-36

Previous ranking: 15

The Diamondbacks got good news on the injury front Tuesday when they activated their every-day shortstop, Geraldo Perdomo, after he had missed more than two months with a torn meniscus in his right knee. Perdomo should bring more length to the D-backs’ lineup. But what they really need is better health in their rotation. Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez — the top three members of their staff, essentially — remain on the IL. All three of them are in varying stages of their throwing programs, but only Gallen seems relatively close at the moment. And Jordan Montgomery‘s struggles are certainly not helping matters. — Gonzalez

Record: 32-35

Previous ranking: 14

The Tigers placed shortstop Javier Baez on the injured list Tuesday because of inflammation in his lumbar spine. Baez had been intermittently dealing with that condition since he joined the Tigers, and it seems as though the team is hoping an extended absence might alleviate the issue for good — and perhaps help his production. Baez, who was scheduled to see a back specialist in Florida, is slashing .183/.209/.247 this year and .223/.264/.344 since he joined the Tigers for the start of the 2022 season. The Tigers owe him another $74 million after 2024. They need to figure something out. — Gonzalez

Record: 33-35

Previous ranking: 22

The Blue Jays’ rotation has been a bright spot over the past month, but it took a hit last week when Alek Manoah was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. The right-hander is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery next week after making just five starts for Toronto. The Blue Jays don’t have an obvious replacement for Manoah — Yariel Rodríguez, who is on a rehab assignment, is the favorite — but they still employ a formidable group with Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, and Yusei Kikuchi. Those four will need to continue performing for the Blue Jays to make up ground in the standings. — Castillo

Record: 33-35

Previous ranking: 16

They are a mystery, with a slump that’s gone on long enough — following last year’s late-season collapse — that it’s hard to know exactly what the Cubs are or what they could be. On the morning of April 30, this team was 18-11, playing at a 100-win pace. Its performance since has been mind-bogglingly poor: The Cubs rank 27th in runs scored, and their team wRC+ is 91, even with the return of Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger to the lineup. They’ve won just 14 of their past 38 games, at a 59-win pace. All of this must be very confusing to a front office that will have to decide whether to upgrade or unload. — Olney

Record: 32-35

Previous ranking: 23

Imagine if Pittsburgh somehow finds a way into the NL playoffs. In a best-of-five series, what opposing team would want to see the starting trio of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jared Jones? The potential of this team is real — and so are its needs. The Pirates rank 20th in runs scored, and only one of their regulars, Nick Gonzales, sports an OPS over .800. If Pittsburgh gets some offense and follows a path similar to the 2023 Diamondbacks to get into the October dance, this would be a team nobody would want to face. — Olney

Record: 32-36

Previous ranking: 19

It’s been seven years since the Rays finished under .500, a noteworthy run given the payroll constraints imposed by ownership. So, it’s strange to see Tampa Bay struggling to this extent this deep into the season. The Rays haven’t been more than three games over .500 yet. They haven’t been over .500 in nearly a month. They’re in the AL East basement — after the Orioles completed a four-game sweep at The Trop — with a run differential that indicates they are worse than their 32-35 record. If that mediocrity continues, the Rays could become captivating subtractors at the trade deadline, dangling several players for playoff hopefuls. Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes and Brandon Lowe could all be available for teams looking for offense. Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam and Garrett Cleavinger could help bullpens. Aaron Civale could bolster a starting rotation. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen the Rays pivot midseason. The question is how aggressively they would maneuver. — Castillo

Record: 32-34

Previous ranking: 18

St. Louis continues to climb back into relevance, and Masyn Winn is still leading the way. Like a lot of his MLB peers, Winn was a two-way player as an amateur, playing shortstop but also pitching. He recalled recently that at that time, he preferred working on the mound over playing shortstop because of the element of control. With his powerful arm, he could dominate a game from the mound in a way he could not in the infield. In the majors, he is quickly developing into one of the best young shortstops in baseball, more consistently putting the ball in play — and with authority. Over his past 29 games, Winn is batting .340 with a .500 slugging percentage. — Olney

Record: 32-35

Previous ranking: 24

The Nationals are still deciding whether they’ll be adders or subtractors at the trade deadline. They have time to see how things play out with the NL wild-card race so wide open, but why not just go for it? Or at least sit tight. It’s not like Dylan Floro or Jesse Winker are going to bring back a top prospect anyway. Realistically, this isn’t a playoff offense, and there’s a good chance the rotation has pitched over its head, as well; so, you don’t necessarily want to give up any prospects for what might be a futile run at the postseason. Sometimes, it’s better to do nothing. — Schoenfield

Record: 29-37

Previous ranking: 25

The Mets split their two games against the Phillies in London. New York lost 7-2 as Sean Manaea allowed six runs in 3⅔ innings. The Mets followed by winning 6-5 as catcher Luis Torrens turned a 2-3 game-ending double play with the bases loaded — stepping on home plate after Nick Castellanos hit a dribbler then firing to first base. They scored three in the top of the ninth in that game, with help from two walks, a hit batter and a passed ball that scored the sixth run. Of course, the Mets then returned to New York and promptly lost to the Marlins. Let the trade deadline rumors begin! — Schoenfield

Record: 26-41

Previous ranking: 27

Taylor Ward has emerged as one of the Angels’ most oft-mentioned trade candidates as the in-season transaction market begins to heat up. It’s not hard to envision Ward becoming an integral role player on a contender. While he has played left field almost exclusively the past couple of years, he can float between either corner outfield spot and in the past has even slid into center as a last resort. While not a strict platoon player, Ward has mashed lefties consistently over the past two years and would impact any club that needs help on the right side of the plate. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Ward has hit .283/.376/.468 against southpaws, including a .340/.393/.460 mark this season. — Doolittle

Record: 26-44

Previous ranking: 26

Oakland is a land of opportunity in baseball these days, and one player who has taken advantage of an extended shot in the bigs is rookie right-hander Joey Estes. Acquired in the trade that sent Matt Olson to Atlanta, Estes has pitched solidly or better in five of his six outings this season, the exception being a drubbing in Houston last month. Estes posted his best big league start to date on June 5, tossing a one-hit shutout over 6⅓ frames against AL West-leading Seattle. Estes has good control and a four-seamer/sweeper combo that might play well in a bullpen role if he doesn’t pan out as a starter. If Estes sticks, he would give Oakland a second contributor from the Olson trade, joining starting catcher Shea Langeliers. — Doolittle

Record: 24-44

Previous ranking: 28

We’re about a month away from the sport’s focus shifting to the trade deadline. And when it does, Cal Quantrill‘s name is certain to be among the most prominent. The Rockies acquired Quantrill in the middle of November, shortly after Cleveland designated him for assignment, and they have watched the 29-year-old right-hander pitch to a 3.30 ERA thanks to a resurgent month of May. Quantrill’s contract is relatively affordable and would be controllable through the 2025 season. Injuries to starting pitchers have been as prevalent as ever this year, and contending teams such as the Braves, Orioles and Brewers, just to name a few, will likely be aggressive on that front. A Quantrill trade could bring the Rockies a nice return if they entertain it. — Gonzalez

Record: 23-44

Previous ranking: 29

One bright spot lately has been closer Tanner Scott. Coming off a terrific 2023 season when he was one of the best lefty relievers in the game — 2.31 ERA and 104 strikeouts in 78 innings with just 24 walks — Scott reverted to his walk-prone ways early this season with 17 walks in his first 17 innings. After a two-inning save against the Mets on Tuesday, however, he has a 0.00 ERA over his past 16 outings, with the only two runs he has allowed coming via the automatic runner in extra innings. If he continues to throw enough strikes, he is going to be one of the most in-demand relievers at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield

Record: 17-52

Previous ranking: 30

Chris Getz, the White Sox’s general manager since August, is in the midst of what is apparently a long and arduous rebuild of a team that looked poised for a breakout just a couple of years ago, and his degree of aggressiveness will be tested over the next seven weeks. Some of his peers with other teams believe he is open-minded to anything and everything, so long as it positions the White Sox better for the future. “He’s not afraid to make a deal,” said one NL executive, citing the timing of the Dylan Cease trade with the Padres. And as bad as the White Sox have been this season, they have players drawing solid interest from other squads. — Olney

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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2 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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3 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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