MLB franchise shortstop draft: Does Witt, Henderson or Seager go No. 1?
The shortstop position is absolutely loaded in Major League Baseball.
One of the biggest debates ahead of the 2024 MLB All-Star Game is who should be the starting shortstop for the American League: reigning Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson or budding superstar Bobby Witt Jr.?
Well, the first fan voting numbers are in, and they are No. 1 and 2, respectively, as they battle for their first Midsummer Classic nod. But if you look at some of the other names getting votes in both leagues, you’ll notice it goes well beyond those two. Another under-25 shortstop rounds out the top 3 vote-getters in the AL — Anthony Volpe — and he’s followed by two-time World Series MVP Corey Seager. In the National League, Mookie Betts already has more than a million votes (but will miss the game after breaking his hand), and he’s followed by two superstars in Trea Turner and Elly De La Cruz. And that’s without even getting into the top prospect in the minors right now: the Baltimore Orioles‘ Jackson Holliday, another shortstop.
Which raises the question: If you could build a team around a cornerstone shortstop right now, who would you take? We challenged our baseball experts to participate in an MLB shortstop draft. Below are their picks for the player they’d most want over the next five years — and why they chose them.
Selected by: Buster Olney
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: Your ideal shortstop would check every box — someone who excels at defense, someone who gets on base at a high level, someone who hits for power, someone who runs well, someone with the kind of athleticism that will allow him to age well and not become too big for the position. This is Bobby Witt Jr., who has excellent defensive metrics, who is on track to rack up more than 200 hits and 130 runs, more than 80 extra-base hits and close to 50 stolen bases. He plays with an ease that you often see in sons of former MLB players; his comfort zone is anywhere on a baseball field, in the most pivotal moments.
One stat that proves it: Witt’s 11 Outs Above Average are the most of any shortstop this season. In fact, that’s tied for the most OAA for any player at any position. (Marcus Semien also has 11). The next closest shortstops have eight.
No. 2 pick: Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Selected by: Xavier Scruggs
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: Henderson is surpassing expectations as a World Series-contending franchise shortstop, and I would’ve taken him even if I had the No. 1 draft choice for that reason. The 22-year-old has dismissed any signs of slowing down after his American League Rookie of the Year campaign and has already shown to be the most productive shortstop in the game right now, according to Wins Above Replacement (bWAR 4.9).
Just pick any tool you need from a generational shortstop: speed, contact, power, arm strength, defense. He possesses all of them. What ultimately separates Henderson from his peers is the immediate impact at the top of the order felt by opposing teams. He won AL ROY last year, and currently he’s second to Aaron Judge in AL MVP odds. Maybe the Cal Ripken Jr. comparisons aren’t far off after all.
One stat that proves it: Gunnar Henderson is on pace for 50 homers. There have been only five occasions when a shortstop has hit 45 or more homers with Alex Rodriguez the last to do so (2003 Rangers, 47HR).
Selected by: Jorge Castillo
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: My decision here came down to Seager and Betts. I went with Seager because I believe he’ll remain at shortstop significantly longer. There aren’t five better hitters in the world than Seager when he’s healthy. And that’s the caveat: When he’s healthy. Just last season, he finished second in the AL MVP vote despite playing in only 119 games. Then he went on a postseason rampage for the second time in four years.
He isn’t the most glamorous defender, but he handles routine plays and could stay at shortstop through his age-35 season. Even if he moves to another position — first or third base is most likely — his bat would more than hold up. That short, sweet swing should age just fine — as long as he stays on the field to inflict damage.
One stat that proves it: Four players have won multiple World Series MVP Awards: Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Reggie Jackson … and Seager. Jackson and Seager are the only ones to do it on different teams. The goal is to hoist the World Series trophy, and Seager has been the engine for two championship clubs in October. He is one of his generation’s greatest postseason performers.
Selected by: Kiley McDaniel
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: De La Cruz is in the small group in the conversation for most dynamic and rare athlete in our lifetime — in any sport. Just ask Snoop Dogg. He is still just 22 years old, has played 169 career big league games, and he’s in the top 15 players in the league in WAR this season. The concern coming into the big leagues is the poor pitch selection he showed in the minors. That would be the thing that would make up for the lack of average he’ll hit for due to being 6-foot-5 (i.e. having long arms) and leaning into power in his approach. Let’s use the most basic measure of pitch selection: De La Cruz had a 5% walk rate in the minors in 2021, then 7.5% in 2022, then 10% between Triple-A and the big leagues in 2023, and now nearly 12% this season — all while being young for every level.
It’s not just raw tools leading to his success, it’s also an incredible feel for the game, but don’t get it twisted: His tools are historic. There’s an argument that De La Cruz is a top-of-the-scale 80 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with 80-grade raw power and an 80-grade arm, which puts him in a group with a handful of players in the history of baseball, or maybe just Bo Jackson. None of the candidates for that group were also plus defenders at shortstop with a plus eye at the plate. Elly De La Cruz is inevitable.
One stat that proves it: 80%. He’s at that percentile or higher among all big leaguers, per Baseball Savant, in average exit velo, bat speed, barrel rate, walk rate, range, arm strength, defensive runs saved and sprint speed. Those essentially cover each of the five tools, confirming with numbers — at age 22! — what our eyes can also see. Oh, and he’s on pace to steal 82 bases this year, too. The upside is clearly there, and it’s already showing up on the field, with plenty more improvement to come.
Selected by: Jeff Passan
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: Yes, we did this draft before Betts’ left hand was broken by an errant 98-mph fastball. No, I still don’t regret the choice. It’s difficult to pass up on a first-ballot Hall of Famer when he’s there with the fifth pick, even when he’s hurt. Betts will play the next four years at ages 32-35, and metrics suggest he’s got a long way to go to master defense at the position. But with a bat like Betts’, even mediocre defense at the position makes him among the best. He hits for average. He is an on-base machine. He’s got bountiful slug. He’s a very good baserunner. Perhaps he moves off short — back to right field, where he won six Gold Gloves, or second base, where he graded out as plus. Versatility is a hallmark in the modern game, and no one embodies it like Betts.
One stat that proves it: A 46-to-33 walk-to-strikeout ratio illustrates the elite nature of Betts’ swing decisions and bat control. Even if Betts loses some of his explosiveness as he ages, he already manages to do sufficient damage with below-average bat speed because his elite plate discipline juices the rest of his tools.
Selected by: Jesse Rogers
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: Despite the power/speed potential of some of the younger shortstops, Trea Turner has already produced many times in that dual role. They may not make a 30-for-30 documentary on his 2023 season, but after such a bad start to his career in Philly, he still managed to go 30-for-30 in stolen bases while hitting 26 home runs last year. And that was considered a down season for him. Yes, age will be a factor over the next five years — Turner is 30 now — but Marcus Semien is a good example of a player performing into his early 30s without issue. There’s no reason Turner can’t keep producing 20/20 or 30/30 seasons over the next few years — without the volatility that some of the others on this list provide.
One stat that proves it: Turner has already hit 19 or more home runs and stolen 30 or more bases in every full year since 2019 — save 2022 when he stole only 27.
No. 7 pick: Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles
Selected by: David Schoenfield
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: I debated between Holliday and Anthony Volpe, who may be on his way to a 5-WAR season for the Yankees. Yes, Holliday struggled big time in his 10-game trial, but here’s the point to emphasize: At age 20, Volpe was in Class A; at age 20, Holliday has a .433 OBP in Triple-A with 23 extra-base hits in 50 games. At the beginning of the season, Holliday’s potential was compared to Witt and Henderson. Don’t let 10 games change that narrative. While his future in Baltimore is at second base, for our fictional team he’s our franchise shortstop.
One stat that proves it: To further that point, Holliday has an .898 OPS at Triple-A. Witt had a .933 OPS at Triple-A, but was a year older. Henderson posted an .894 OPS at Norfolk, but was also a year older (and had twice as many strikeouts as walks while Holliday has an even ratio). Holliday may still be growing into his power.
Selected by: Doug Glanville
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: Volpe has taken huge steps since last season. The hard work he put in during the offseason is the mark of a young shortstop who is committed to getting better. There is no such thing as playing under the radar in New York — it’s a place that can swallow shortstops whole — and the local kid is more than holding his own. Volpe does it all on a baseball field. He’s a Gold Glove defender, an excellent base runner who steals at will, and he has pop. He even successfully adjusted his swing for more contact.
Just 23, he has a long way to go, and he has the time to take these incremental steps to make him an All-Star. Last year, Yankees manager Aaron Boone was often asked whether Volpe needed more seasoning in the minors. Boone always scoffed at that. Volpe has had unquestioned support from the Yankees since Day 1 — because of his intangibles. Now, though, he’s showing us his tangibles. He will be a Yankee for 15 more years.
One stat that proves it: He almost has as many hits to the opposite field now (20) as he did all last season (24), that quick rise shows the kind of improvement needed to become a franchise shortstop.
Selected by: Alden Gonzalez
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: He gets overlooked because of the team he plays for, but Tovar has most of the ingredients one looks for in a building-block shortstop — a young kid with great makeup who provides plus defense and elite bat-to-ball skills. The only real question surrounding Tovar as he skyrocketed up the Rockies’ farm system was whether his power would eventually emerge. And this year, in what is still only his age-22 season, we’ve seen some of that.
Tovar’s slash line has jumped from .253/.287/.408 as a rookie in 2023 to .286/.314/.485 through the first 71 games of his second full season in 2024. In that two-year stretch, he has compiled 16 outs above average on defense — tied for sixth-most in the majors and more than anybody else on this list. There is, of course, a reason he fell to ninth. There are red flags here, most notably a propensity to swing way too often and lots of batted-ball luck (Tovar currently leads the majors with a .366 batting average on balls in play). His batted-ball metrics aren’t great even this year. But this is still a young player rounding into form. Time is very much on Tovar’s side.
One stat that proves it: If you think Tovar’s offensive resurgence is merely a byproduct of spending half his time in the thin air of Coors Field, think again. Tovar’s home-road splits are practically identical this year. His adjusted OPS, which neutralizes park factors, is 116, a 37-point jump from last year that puts him 16% above league average. Tovar has done a much better job this year of elevating pitches.
Selected by: Bradford Doolittle
Why he’s the shortstop to build around: Picking last in this exercise leaves me with a best-of-the-rest scenario. I would trade Lawlar and two other names above this slot on the list to get a shot at Witt, but such is life. Lawlar has All-Star potential, no doubt, but I don’t see him as being necessarily more of a building block than other prospects/youngsters I could have taken, like Masyn Winn, Colson Montgomery, Marcelo Mayer and a handful of others. That’s even before we get into outstanding-right-now veterans like Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, who I’m passing up because this is about a five-year window, and they are already at/near 30. I do think my indifference to a specific player in this slot underscores one thing: To stand out at this deep, talented position is hard, and that only underscores how much talent is bursting from the players listed.
One stat that proves it: Speed and power: Lawlar posted a .218 isolated power in the minors last year at age 20, but also stole 36 bases and scored 95 runs in just 105 games.
Following two transfer portal windows and the NFL draft, college football fans might need Apple AirTags to track where their favorite players wound up.
This space is dedicated to those who decided to stay — commitments who boosted their teams’ College Football Playoff hopes. Penn State’s 2022 recruiting class could take up half the list: quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and defensive tackle Zane Durant are all back from the Nittany Lions’ CFP semifinal run.
“When we all committed here coming out of our ’22 class, that was one of our goals coming in as Penn Staters, we wanted to compete for championships, both Big Ten and obviously national championships,” Allar said. “And obviously we had a taste of that last year, and we know how close you are, so it’s just building off that and trying to make another run at it.”
Here’s a look at 13 players from 11 schools and representing five different leagues whose decisions to either forgo the NFL draft or sidestep the portal have beefed up their respective teams’ playoff chances.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Nussmeier, a fifth-year senior, and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan are entering their second season together and aiming to improve upon a stellar debut, which will help the Tigers contend for the SEC title. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 passing yards last year, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Even if LSU can’t win the league, Nussmeier’s return can help the Tigers earn an at-large CFP bid — especially if he makes a similar jump to his predecessors, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, who both won the Heisman Trophy in their second seasons in Baton Rouge. Nussmeier’s dad, Doug, will be nearby as the Saints’ offensive coordinator after winning a Super Bowl as the Eagles’ quarterbacks coach. With four new starters on the Tigers’ offensive line, there’s going to be an adjustment period, but if the “Nuss Bus” gets the time he needs, this should be a breakout season and his draft stock will rise with LSU’s playoff chances.
2. Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Penn State has something Ohio State and Oregon don’t — a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might finally have the pieces in place to return to the top of the Big Ten and contend for a national title. Allar, who’s entering his third season as the starter, will be surrounded by NFL talent on the offensive line and in the running game, and could make a case to be Penn State’s first Heisman Trophy winner since John Cappelletti in 1973. Last season, he had 3,327 passing yards, the third most in a season in school history. With a second season under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and more options at wide receiver — plus a still-loaded tight end room — there will be no shortage of options for Allar to push the ball downfield more.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: On paper, Clemson has enough offensive firepower returning to elevate the Tigers into a deeper CFP run than their first-round exit in 2024 and they should have the Heisman-contending quarterback the program has desperately missed. Klubnik leads a Clemson offense that is No. 1 in the FBS in returning production (81%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Klubnik reestablished himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country following a down season in 2023. Last year, his 308 completions, 3,639 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns all ranked among the best seasons in program history. As he enters his third season as a starter under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, Klubnik’s understanding of the offense and his relationship with Riley has grown, positioning Klubnik for what should be his best season with the Tigers.
4. Nicholas Singleton/Kaytron Allen, RBs, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What their return means: The nation’s best running back duo returns intact, and they’ve got playoff experience along with familiarity and knowledge of the offense in coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s second season, all of which should boost the Nittany Lions’ hopes of winning the Big Ten and returning to the CFP. Singleton and Allen were projected by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. to be the Nos. 5 and 6 running backs available in the 2025 draft after becoming the first combo in Penn State history to each have at least 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Penn State ran for more than 200 yards in 10 games last season, and the Nittany Lions led all Power 4 teams and Notre Dame in rushing with 3,237 yards. Of course, it helps to have 6-foot-4, 350-pound offensive guard Olaivavega Ioane blocking.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: Sellers absolutely drew interest from other teams in November and December, but he re-signed quickly with the Gamecocks — and his commitment could be the difference between receiving or not receiving a CFP bid. The same can be said for edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who also attracted attention after 10.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks last year. South Carolina made a playoff case with Sellers leading the offense last year, but the CFP selection committee didn’t rank the No. 15 Gamecocks high enough for inclusion. He improved throughout the season last fall, increasing his Total QBR from 52 in his first six games to 81 over the last six. This year, he’ll be working with Mike Shula, the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Don Shula.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal (twice)
What his return means: Illinois can be a CFP sleeper team by competing for the Big Ten title and earning an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league. The importance of Illinois retaining its starting quarterback after a strong spring push from Tennessee can’t be understated. The Illini have a chance to be this year’s Indiana — a Big Ten contender with a manageable schedule that can play its way into the selection committee’s rankings with a standout quarterback and his supporting cast. After public speculation he might transfer for his final year of eligibility, Altmyer announced in December he would return to the team. He did it again in April, following the drama at Tennessee. Altmyer passed for 2,543 yards, 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions last year, leading Illinois to a 9-3 regular season and a top-20 ranking in the Associated Press poll.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: K-State can win another wide-open Big 12 race and earn an automatic bid into the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Johnson never entered the transfer portal, but he attracted interest, especially after Tennessee lost Nico Iamaleava. “We got a damned wall built around him,” a K-State source told ESPN. “They better bring the Tennessee National Guard.” Expectations will be higher this year for Johnson, who threw for 2,712 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his first full season as a starter last year. He also had 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. With the depth at wide receiver, K-State’s passing game could flourish this fall.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: A veteran offensive line that includes four returning starters from a group that allowed the third-fewest sacks in the SEC last season (20). It also means better protection for quarterback DJ Lagway, who could be one of the best in the country if he can stay healthy — and Lagway’s health is the most critical component to Florida’s success this year. According to Pro Football Focus, Slaughter allowed one sack, one QB hit, six QB hurries and eight pressures — with only three penalties — in 728 snaps. The Gators again have one of the toughest schedules in the country, and Slaughter is the kind of veteran they need up front to help Lagway survive it.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: That the Buckeyes didn’t lose everyone from their national championship defense. Styles had an outstanding 2024 season with 100 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, six sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and five passes defended. His draft stock rose as the Buckeyes ascended through the CFP bracket, but he told reporters at their national championship celebration that he “wasn’t ready to leave yet.” Styles still has room to improve and grow, and his draft stock will continue to rise. He’s now in a position of leadership as one of just three returning starters on defense and the most experienced player among the rising seniors.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: The Ducks retained a 6-foot, 175-pound receiver who played a key role in advancing them to the top seed in the 2024 CFP, and they’ll need his help again — especially with the departure of Tez Johnson, who entered the NFL draft after leading Oregon with 83 receptions for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns his senior season. Stewart is Oregon’s only returning receiver who had more than 30 receptions in 2024. Stewart, who transferred to Oregon from Texas A&M, had 48 catches last season for 613 yards and tied for the team high with five receiving touchdowns. He was Oregon’s second-most targeted receiver in an offense that finished 13th nationally in passing yards. Stewart’s role will increase, and his decision to return will help the Ducks’ new starting quarterback, which could be former UCLA QB Dante Moore.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his decision means: The Longhorns have leadership, playoff experience, NFL talent and a familiar face returning to a defense that again has to replace multiple starters from the previous season. Taaffe, a rising senior who ascended from walk-on to All-American, had 71 tackles, 6 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 10 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery. His decision to return was driven in large part by the desire to win a national title at Texas and the devastation he said he felt following the loss to Ohio State. Taaffe will get another chance at the Buckeyes in the season opener.
The decision: Withdrew name from portal
What his return means: The Broncos were able to retain top talent from their 2024 CFP run, which featured one of the nation’s top defensive fronts, a huge boost for coach Spencer Danielson as he tries to own the Group of 5’s guaranteed spot as one of the nation’s five highest-ranked conference champions. Fely took visits to Miami and Cal before announcing on social media he planned to return to Boise. Fely, who spent the past three seasons at Boise State, started 28 games in the past two seasons. He had nine TFLs last year and 5.5 sacks.
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