Ranking the top 25 NHL players of the 21st century
We have spent the past week counting down our list of the top 100 athletes of the 21st century and three NHL players made the list, starting with Sidney Crosby at No. 22 overall. We also voted on an overall top 25 just for the NHL.
Who else makes the list of some of the greatest NHL players of the 2000s?
1. Sidney Crosby, C
Key accomplishments: NHL 100 Greatest, two-time Richard Trophy, two-time Ross Trophy, two-time Hart Trophy, three-time Lindsay Award, three-time Stanley Cup champion (two-time Conn Smythe), 1,596 points (10th all-time)
Crosby’s teammate Kris Letang recalled how, in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final against San Jose, Crosby vowed he and Letang would team-up on the “biggest goal” of the night. They wound up connecting for a game-winner that secured Pittsburgh’s fourth Cup in franchise history. Letang was understandably stunned by Crosby’s fortune-telling prowess on such a large stage. But Crosby impresses in the smaller moments, too. Former linemate Conor Sheary recalled Crosby assuring him when they were paired together that Sheary was “there for a reason and to play my game.” It was the sort of calming presence Sheary needed and a gesture from Crosby he’s never forgotten. — Kristen Shilton
2. Alex Ovechkin, RW
Key accomplishments: Key accomplishments: NHL 100 Greatest, Stanley Cup champion (Conn Smythe), 2nd all-time w/ 853 goals, NHL-record 312 PPG, nine-time Richard Trophy, three-time Hart Trophy and Lindsay Award, ’06 Calder, ’08 Ross.
There isn’t a player in the NHL that’s commanded a slapshot like Ovechkin in his career. Even if Father Time has begun catching up in some areas, the pure power behind his signature shot remains. Ovechkin’s success scoring 853 goals (to date) has come in large part because of how he uses a big frame (6-foot-2) to add velocity and power behind a shot that can exceed 100 miles per hour. When Ovechkin puts his weight behind a puck — particularly from his favorite right-circle spot — it’s a howitzer for any goalie to stop. No wonder so many have failed to keep Ovi from lighting the lamp. — Shilton
3. Connor McDavid, C
Key accomplishments: Five-time Art Ross Trophy winner, three-time Hart Trophy winner, seven 100-point seasons in first nine NHL seasons, 2024 Conn Smythe winner.
It could be daunting to be touted as The Next One behind Edmonton Oilers legend Wayne Gretzky. McDavid isn’t like the rest, though. Edmonton’s captain has embraced that spotlight as Gretzky’s heir apparent. It was fitting when McDavid broke a record Gretzky set in 1987-88 with his 32nd assist of the 2024 postseason during Edmonton’s run to a Stanley Cup Final. McDavid had long been an exceptional playmaker in his own right, but the way he carried the Oilers back from a 3-0 series deficit in the Final to force a decisive Game 7 was spectacular. And it rightly earned McDavid a Conn Smythe Trophy in the losing effort. — Shilton
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ESPN’s Top 100 Athletes: Connor McDavid’s sensational highlights
Check out some of the best goals that have come from NHL superstar Connor McDavid over the course of his career.
Key accomplishments: NHL 100 Greatest (2017), 2007 Calder, 2012 Smythe, 2015 Ross, 2015 Hart, three-time Stanley Cup Champion
A nine-time NHL All-Star Game participant, Kane won three Stanley Cups with the Chicago Blackhawks. Kane’s goal-scoring exploits made him one of the game’s most dangerous players as a well as one of the NHL’s most prominent faces. In 2016, he became the first American-born player to win the Hart Memorial Trophy and ranks third all-time among U.S. players in points. — Ryan Clark
5. Nicklas Lidstrom, D
Key accomplishments: NHL 100 Greatest (2017), seven-time Norris winner, 2002 Conn Smythe winner, four-time Stanley Cup champ, Hockey HOF in 2015
Lidstrom’s career had several touch points. He was part of four Stanley Cup-winning teams with the Detroit Red Wings. He won the Norris Trophy for the league’s best defenseman seven times and became a model that many of today’s defensemen look to emulate.— Clark
Key accomplishments: Three-time 40-goal scorer, two 100-point seasons, 2013-14 Calder Trophy winner, 2022 Stanley Cup Champion
Goals, playmaking, speed and power. Those have allowed MacKinnon to emerge into one of the NHL’s superstars as he sits a 101-point season shy of 1,000 career points while still just 28. With one Stanley Cup, the 2024 Hart Trophy winner will look to grab more in a career that could see him end up in the Hall of Fame. — Clark
7. Martin Brodeur, G
Key accomplishments: NHL 100 Greatest (2017), NHL all-time leader in wins (691) and shutouts (125)
No goaltender in NHL history has more wins (691) and shutouts (125) than Brodeur. A nine-time NHL All-Star Game participant, he won four Vezina Trophies and guided the New Jersey Devils to three Stanley Cups. — Clark
8. Henrik Lundqvist, G
Key accomplishments: 2012 Vezina, ninth all-time in games played by goalie (887), 2023 Hockey Hall of Fame Inductee
Seventh-round picks don’t always reach the NHL. Yet Lundqvist not only reached the league but became one of the best goaltenders of his generation. He would win 459 games and In 2012, won the Vezina Trophy for the league’s best goaltender. — Clark
Key accomplishments: 2012 Hart, two-time Art Ross, 2012 Ted Lindsay, 2009 Conn Smythe, 2007 Calder, three-time Stanley Cup Champion
Much like how Mario Lemieux had Jaromir Jagr, it was the same with Crosby having Malkin. Having a pair of generational centers helped the Penguins win three Stanley Cups. Malkin was crucial to those titles, especially in 2009 when he won the Conn Smythe as the Penguins captured their first Cup of the Crosby-Malkin era. Malkin is also two goals away from 500 for his career and his four points shy of 1,300. — Clark
10. Patrice Bergeron, C
Key accomplishments: Six-time Selke Trophy winner, third in Bruins history in career goals (427) and career points (1,040)
A Stanley Cup champion with the Boston Bruins in 2011, Bergeron established himself as one of the NHL’s best do-everything players. He won the Selke Trophy, the award for the NHL’s premier defensive forward, a record six times while his 12 nominations are also an NHL record. — Clark
11. Zdeno Chara, D
Key accomplishments: 2009 Norris, 2011 Stanley Cup winner, 1,680 games played (7th all-time), played 24 seasons (T-3rd most all-time)
At 6-foot-9, Chara was more than just the tallest player in NHL history. He developed into one of the best defensemen of his generation, which saw him receive six NHL All-Star Game appearances along with the Norris Trophy in 2009. Then, in 2011, he captained the Bruins to their first Stanley Cup since 1972. — Clark
Key accomplishments: Two-time Rocket Richard, 2022 Messier, two-time Stanley Cup Champion, 555 career goals is third most among active players
Being the No. 1 pick of any draft comes with hype, and Stamkos more than lived up to those expectations. A seven-time 40-goal scorer, Stamkos has averaged more than a point per game over a career that saw him captain the Tampa Bay Lightning to consecutive Stanley Cup championships in 2020 and in 2021. Now, the two-time scoring champion will look to win another in his first season with the Nashville Predators. — Clark
Key accomplishments: 2019-20 Art Ross Trophy and Hart Trophy Winner, three 50-goal seasons, five 100-point seasons
Draisaitl was drafted third in 2014 with the hope he could become a key player for the Oilers’ future plans. Instead? He emerged into a second generational center alongside McDavid. A three-time 50-goal scorer, he’s had more than 100 points in five of the past six seasons. In 2020, he won the Hart and Art Ross, which further cemented his status as one of the NHL’s best contemporary players. — Clark
14. Joe Thornton, C
Key accomplishments: 2006 Art Ross, 2006 Hart Trophy, T-third-most seasons played in NHL history (24), sixth-most games played in NHL history (1,714)
Forget the 430 goals he scored. Thornton’s playmaking ability saw him finish his illustrious career with 1,109 assists. Just on that alone, he’d be 65th all-time in points. Only six players finished with more career assists in NHL history than Thornton, who walked away from the game as one of the sport’s greatest playmakers. — Shilton
Key accomplishments: Three-time Rocket Richard winner, 2016-17 Calder, 2021-22 Hart, first US-born player to score 60 goals (2x), 69 goals in 2023-24 (most since 1995-96)
Matthews has collected accolades at an awe-inspiring rate in his young career, putting him on track to be the greatest — and most decorated — Maple Leaf of all time. He’s one of just two American-born players to ever win the Hart Trophy, was the first Leaf ever to earn a Ted Lindsay, has three scoring titles and a Calder Trophy. There are few feats Matthews hasn’t been able to accomplish thus far. — Shilton
Key accomplishments: Three-time Norris Trophy winner (2012, 2015, 2023); Senators’ career leader in assists (392) by defenseman; nine seasons with 40+ assists
Karlsson won his third Norris Trophy in 2023 after the kind of resurgent regular season no one predicted from a 33-year-old blueliner. Karlsson was the first defenseman to eclipse 100 points in a season since 1991-92 and became just the ninth player in NHL history to win the Norris three times. The fact he produced so exceptionally for a San Jose team that didn’t qualify for the playoffs was all the more impressive. — Shilton
Key accomplishments: Two-time Stanley Cup Winner, four-time All-Star, two-time Art Ross Trophy, 2018-19 Hart Trophy
Only 10 days had passed after Tampa lost to Colorado in Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final and Kucherov was already on the ice preparing for next season. His teammate Ross Colton could barely believe it: “I thought, ‘Wow, what is he doing?’ And then you realize just how committed he is to the game through his work ethic,” said Colton. “You see the result of the extra effort he puts in. He’s always working on his craft.” — Shilton
Key accomplishments: 2021 Jennings, 2021 Vezina, three-time Stanley Cup Champion, fourth in games played by goalie in NHL history (1,025), second all-time in wins (561)
There’s an elite circle of NHL goaltenders, and Fleury has earned his way among them. The long-time netminder is one of just three goalies to surpass 500 career wins, and one of four to ever dress in more than 1,000 games. He stands in those achievements with Hall of Fame talents Patrick Roy, Roberto Luongo and Martin Brodeur. — Shilton
Key accomplishments: Four seasons of 35+ wins, 2019 Vezina Trophy winner, two-time Stanley Cup Champion, 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy winner
One of Vasilevskiy’s greatest strengths is his size — at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he’s a dominant presence in the crease. That stature also earned Vasilevskiy his “Big Cat” nickname because of the reflexes and remarkable flexibility he can wield even while clocking in as one of the NHL’s largest goaltenders. It’s what’s helped turn Vasilevskiy into a Lightning legend. — Shilton
20. Jarome Iginla, RW
Key accomplishments: Two-time Rocket Richard, 2002 Art Ross, 2002 Ted Lindsay, 2004 King Clancy, 2009 Messier, 2020 Hockey Hall of Fame Inductee
It’s possible Iginla was the last of his kind. The former Calgary Flames captain was a genuine power forward boasting a rare combination of assets — he had elite skill and awesome strength, excellent vision and a scrapper’s mentality. Iginla could fight as well as he could finish. There aren’t many skaters in that mould and certainly almost no one did it all better than Iginla.— Shilton
Key accomplishments: Two-time Selke, two-time Stanley Cup Champion, Kings franchise leader in goals, assist and points, top 5 in assists and points among active players
Kopitar has been the captain and face of the LA Kings’ franchise for good reason. He’s one of just six NHL players to ever score 400 or more goals for the team that drafted them, and he’s one of just two players (the other being NHL legend Gordie Howe) to ever lead a team in scoring for at least 15 seasons. LA might never have expected that sort of production when it drafted a 17-year-old from Slovenia. — Shilton
22. Pavel Datsyuk, C
Key accomplishments: NHL 100 Greatest (2017), three-time Selke winner, four-time Lady Byng winner, two-time Stanley Cup Champ, Triple Gold Club
The Red Wings’ stalwart never won a Hart Trophy or a Ted Lindsay. But Datsyuk also never failed to amaze the players he went up against night after night: “He’s just one of those players who is special,” said Marian Hossa. “He is sick defensively. I think he’s the best in the world at stealing the puck. To watch him is fun. Sometimes when you have the puck and he steals it from you, you just have to laugh because of how easy he made it look.” — Shilton
23. Duncan Keith, D
Key accomplishments: NHL 100 Greatest (2017), third-time Cup Winner, two-time Norris Trophy winner, 2015 Conn Smythe winner
What Keith did for the Chicago Blackhawks in 2014-15 was something special — he not only won his second Norris Trophy after a tremendous regular season but was also the unanimous choice for the Conn Smythe Trophy after averaging over 31 minutes per night to lead Chicago to a Stanley cup title. — Shilton
Key accomplishments: 2018 Norris, 2020 Conn Smythe, six-time All-Star, two-time Stanley Cup Champion, 5th in Tampa Bay career pts (728)
There are not many pages of the Tampa history books that Hedman hasn’t etched his name on. He’s the first defenseman to ever play more than 1,000 games in a Lightning uniform, is the organization’s highest-scoring blueliner and he’s among a handful of defenders to ever win multiple Stanley Cup titles, a Norris Trophy and Conn Smythe honors. — Shilton
Key accomplishments: Career leader in wins (393) and shutouts (60) among U.S.-born goaltenders, two-time Stanley Cup Champion
Quick may have moved on from the LA Kings, but there’s no question he left an indelible mark on the franchise after winning two championships there in 2012 and 2014: “He wears his heart on his sleeve,” recalled former teammate Drew Doughty. “He can control his emotions, but he shows them to us, that’s something that has always pushed us, how competitive he is and how badly he wants to win games and not lose. That’s helped carry our team to success in the past.” — Shilton
The final weekend of the MLB season is here — and there’s still plenty to play for!
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers also taking home the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up the NL East title, and the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their fifth straight NL West title on Thursday. The New York Mets beat the Marlins on Saturday and, with the Cincinnati Reds playing on the Brewers later Saturday night, they’re (momentarily, at least) back in the lead in the NL wild-card race.
In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a playoff spot and the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners joined them days later. While the Detroit Tigers clinched a postseason spot Saturday, in one the biggest twists of the 2025 season, the Cleveland Guardians have rocked the playoff picture with a September surge, emerging as a serious contender in the AL wild-card race and for the AL Central title.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Sept. 13 and followed up by securing their third straight NL Central title. They earned a bye in the first round and are playing for the NL’s overall No. 1 seed.
The Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason on Sept. 14. With a win the following night, Philadelphia clinched the NL East title for the second straight year. On Wednesday, the Phils beat the Marlins to clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the NLDS.
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Sept. 17 and will be making their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018. With a win on Saturday, they clinched home-field advantage in their wild-card series with the Padres.
With a win Thursday over the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers clinched the NL West title for the 12th time in the past 13 years. They will be the No. 3 seed in the NL and host the No. 6 seed in the wild-card series.
The Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a postseason berth with a with over the Royals on Sept. 21. They are currently tied with the Yankees for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Padres clinched their fourth postseason trip in six years with a walk-off win over the Brewers on Monday. They will travel to Chicago to meet the Cubs in the wild-card series.
The Yankees became the second AL team to clinch a playoff spot with a walk-off win over the White Sox on Tuesday. They are currently tied with the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Mariners clinched their first postseason appearance since 2022 on Tuesday and, with a 9-2 win on Wednesday, won their first AL West crown since 2001. They earned a bye in the first round.
With a win against the Tigers on Friday, Boston clinched an AL Wild Card berth. They will be the road team in one wild-card series.
With a win in Boston on Saturday, Detroit clinched at least an AL Wild Card berth. They are still in play to win the AL Central.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
Upcoming clinch possibilities:
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The Guardians can clinch today with a win OR a loss by the Astros
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The Brewers can clinch the NL’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason today with a win OR a loss by the Phillies
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The Blue Jays can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win OR a loss by the Yankees
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The Yankees can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win AND a loss by the Blue Jays
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Tigers at (3) Guardians, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Tigers/Guardians vs. (2) Mariners, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Reds at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Reds/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Tiebreaker scenarios
AL East teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Win tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians
New York Yankees
Win tiebreaker: Mariners
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Guardians, Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Guardians, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers
AL Central teams
Cleveland Guardians
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Tigers, Yankees, Blue Jays
Lose tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
Win tiebreaker: Red Sox, Astros
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Mariners
AL West teams
Seattle Mariners
Win tiebreaker: Tigers, Guardians, Red Sox
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Yankees
Houston Astros
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Red Sox, Tigers
NL East teams
Philadelphia Phillies
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers
New York Mets
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Reds
NL Central teams
Milwaukee Brewers
Win tiebreaker: Phillies
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
Chicago Cubs
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Cincinnati Reds
Win tiebreaker: Mets
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
NL West teams
Los Angeles Dodgers
Win tiebreaker: Padres
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers, Cubs, Phillies
San Diego Padres
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Dodgers
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays are trying to hold for the AL’s No. 1 seed and division title. While Toronto has the tiebreaker in the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are both headed to the postseason regardless. And the Seattle Mariners separated themselves from the Houston Astros in a two-team AL West race to win their first division crown since 2001. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are going toe-to-toe with the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central while also playing themselves into a tight race for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds battling for the final playoff spot, with the Dodgers (who won the division) and Padres headed to the postseason from the NL West.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
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Bill Connelly
Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.
Oregon and Penn State have beaten seven overwhelmed opponents by an average score of 48-8; their seasons begin in earnest in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first trip to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even bigger from a consequences perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Top-ranked Ohio State’s first road test of the season pits the Buckeyes against a Washington team with one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
Those are just the main events! On Friday night, resurgent Florida State visits a wonderfully surprising Virginia team. After last week’s merciless blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to avoid a massive letdown at Iowa, where many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the first time in a battle of frustrating and spectacularly explosive teams. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have played many wild and silly games over the past decade, have lots on the line in College Station. USC tests its unbeaten record in Champaign against scorned Illinois. We even get a Big Sky Saturday night with a battle of FCS top-10 teams!
We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.
Games are Saturday unless noted; times are Eastern.
The season begins in Happy Valley
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.
Penn State traded résumé-building opportunities and a little bit of margin for error for three sure wins and got them. Oregon also hasn’t played much of a murderer’s row; the Ducks have dominated four teams ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They didn’t allow their first non-garbage-time touchdown until last Saturday. Nothing is a must-win game for two name-brand Big Ten teams with unbeaten records, but neither of these teams will have sparkling strength-of-schedule rankings if they’re in, say, a large pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It’s probably best to win this one.
Penn State’s defense has been every bit as dominant as we expected, considering James Franklin already had a top-five defense and added the best defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles) to lead it. The Nittany Lions force turnovers and don’t allow big plays, and they’ve continued to dominate the red zone as they did last season. The run defense maybe hasn’t dominated as much as I thought it would, but the pass defense has been just about perfect: Corner Elliot Washington II has more catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has been as good as advertised (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up where he left off in last year’s College Football Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman end Chaz Coleman has quickly become a weapon, too.
To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.
Still, you’d like to think that, with so few deep-ball attempts, Allar would be completing more than 65% of his passes. And you’d like to think that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton would be averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, another star back, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, lots of broken tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have done their jobs, and tight end Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. But Allar and Singleton haven’t been as sharp as necessary. Can they turn it on now that the season is really starting? Especially against this defense?
The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.
I was unsure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season because it would be relying on so many new starters, but the Ducks are fourth in points per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in overall SP+. It seems as though things are going pretty well. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as automatic as coordinator Will Stein could want, completing 75% of his passes with just one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has also connected on four of seven downfield shots of more than 30 yards. His QB radar is nearly a perfect circle now.
Running back Jayden Limar enjoyed a star turn during Noah Whittington‘s injury absence, but now Whittington should be back. It has all worked. Even against a top-40 Northwestern defense, the Ducks scored on six of nine drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But this is still the biggest game of Moore’s career, and it will be played against one of the best defenses in the country in front of maybe college football’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no less). It’s impossible to know a team is ready for that until it proves it.
Current line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3
Bama has a lot to lose at Georgia
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
At this point last year, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 game that featured a huge Bulldogs comeback and maybe the greatest play of the season. Then, they turned around and lost to Vanderbilt in the upset of the year. In a lovely instance of symmetry, Bama once again gets Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. But the challenges won’t stop there. Six of the Tide’s next seven opponents rank 16th or better in SP+, and thanks to their dreadful Week 1 showing at Florida State, they don’t have much margin for error. If they lose in Athens on Saturday, in their first road trip since Tallahassee, they might have none.
Since their game against FSU, the Tide have been just about perfect. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin obviously aren’t amazing, but Bama overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 48.4 points against the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in points per possession, though its one-dimensionality could become an issue: The Tide are 18th in passing success rate* but 87th in rushing success rate and are therefore throwing far more frequently than the national average. Against Wisconsin, Bama running backs carried 15 times for just 45 yards, but it didn’t matter because quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards against ULM. Like I said: just about perfect.)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
That pass-heavy ratio probably won’t change Saturday because if you’re going to move the ball on Georgia, it’s through the air: The Dawgs are 10th in rushing success rate allowed but 86th against the pass. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: four targets, four catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should find matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and perhaps Isaiah Horton, who has caught nine of nine passes for 105 yards and 2 scores — to exploit.
The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.
After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III‘s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.
Efficiency levels are solid despite the negative plays, but big plays are an issue.
You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.
Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.
Because Georgia saved itself against Tennessee with yet another overtime win (its past three wins against power conference teams went to OT), the Dawgs have a little less to lose Saturday. But that’s the fun thing about college football: try to tell the 93,033 in attendance that one team needs this one a little more than the other. Huge games will always feel like huge games, and Bama-Georgia will always be a huge game.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1
Ole Miss’ revenge or another LSU thriller?
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)
In five seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents five times. You could say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I guess that would make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, especially because it probably prevented an Ole Miss national title.) For the next 60 years, though, these types of meetings were sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to decide the SEC West, but that was about it until last year, when the Tigers won a 29-26 overtime thriller without leading for a second.
Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.
It looks like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will start again for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State transfer has completed 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with only two sacks, adding 198 non-sack rushing yards and two more scores. The approach with Chambliss has been simple: don’t worry about complicated intermediate passing, just woo defensive backs close to the line of scrimmage with relentless short passing, then hit ’em deep. He has completed 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or more yards downfield.
Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.
Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.
The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.
The passing game has been sharp enough that a dreadful run game hasn’t yet cost the Tigers. But whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in rushing success rate. Caden Durham got hurt last week against Southeastern Louisiana, but he’s averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with more yards after contact) more touches might not be a bad idea.
The Tigers’ reliance on the pass creates an interesting contrast: Ole Miss’ pass defense has been efficient (18th in passing success rate allowed), but the run defense has been awful (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding rarely blitzes, and Rebel defenders rarely end up in the backfield, but they do a good job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have completed just 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You move the ball on Ole Miss on the ground, but LSU moves the ball through the air. We love some nice narrative tension!
Current line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5
The No. 1 team heads west
No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It appears conventional wisdom has forgotten about the Washington Huskies. The 2023 national runners-up rank first nationally in points per drive and ninth in yards per play, they have beaten three overwhelmed opponents by an average of 56-18, and they boast one of the nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking back Jonah Coleman. But they have zero AP poll votes. How?
Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.
With safety Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in tackle Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes likely have the tools to frustrate a young quarterback like Williams, and considering Washington’s banged-up defense ranks 61st in points allowed per drive without having played a top-80 offense (per SP+), it’s hard to see the Huskies making enough stops.
Despite one-third of its games coming against Texas’ excellent defense, Ohio State ranks second in passing success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes’ run game isn’t nearly as strong as we’re used to seeing — then again, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — but quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (combined: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I don’t know how UW disrupts that connection with star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah is also out.)
So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:
• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.
• Net YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is one of the nation’s best teams at grinding out YAC and allowing none for opponents.
• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.
• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.
Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0
YAC kings in action
That’s right, this week’s keyword is YAC. Yards after contact are the secret weapon for teams exceeding expectations, and quite a few Week 5 games will highlight 2025’s YAC kings. That includes two games pitting YAC kings against one another.
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).
FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.
Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).
Indiana (sixth in net YAC) hits the road to face an Iowa team (ninth in net YAC) that has upset four top-15 teams at home in the past decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have to watch out for a letdown after last week’s Illinois blowout, but while Iowa’s offense has scored 30 points three times this season, the only decent defense the Hawkeyes have faced, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium will need to summon loads of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).
Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3
No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1
Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
If you’re a fan of the multiview box, this one will be a lovely complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not only do you get another glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in net YAC), but you also get to watch a Rice option offense averaging 246 rushing yards per game.
Current line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7
Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).
Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the primary driver of NC State’s 3-1 start. The defense gives up far too many big plays, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. But you’re watching this one for Smothers.
Current line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).
OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.
Current line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.
This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!
Current line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1
Early Saturday
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.
Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4
Cincinnati at Kansas (noon, TNT). I think Cincinnati might be good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri in the fourth quarter and beat three other opponents (including West Virginia) by a combined 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate — second rushing, third passing — and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per successful play. If they figure out how not to completely stink on third downs, the Bearcats could pull an upset.
Current line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2
Duke at Syracuse (noon, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU transfer — and new Syracuse starter — was just 3-for-8 against Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, but his 18-yard touchdown pass to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s pass defense has been surprisingly disastrous this season, but the Blue Devils can rush the passer and potentially stress Collins.
Current line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1
Louisville at Pitt (noon, ESPN2). Louisville has yet to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, but the Cardinals have a good pass defense and maybe the most explosive running back corps in FBS. Pitt, meanwhile, has an explosive passing game and maybe the best run defense Louisville will face. I think Louisville’s really good, but Pitt is pretty good at making things messy and thriving in the chaos.
Current line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7
Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will try to entice a known rock-fight lover into a wide-open battle. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses — Minnesota lost by 13 to a Cal team that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa into a track meet but lost 38-28. The loser of this one just hopes to get to 6-6.
Current line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2
No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 in the first and third quarters but has been outscored 23-10 in the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks ago but were outscored 34-10 from there. That’s probably a bad sign against a Tech team that seems to have some 60-minute staying power (the Jackets are at least +15 in every quarter).
Current line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We don’t yet know how good these teams are — USU has overachieved against SP+ projections by 15.0 points per game (10th nationally) while Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are likely quite a bit better than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but if Miles Davis and the USU run game get going, they could make this uncomfortable for a bit.
Current line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these teams have played games decided by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores pretty high on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it’s a huge game for both teams: Auburn is a projected favorite in only two games the rest of the season and needs to initiate a rally before Georgia and Missouri come to town next month. A&M, meanwhile, needs to get to 6-0 before a three-game SEC road trip. A&M gives up lots of big plays, but Auburn doesn’t make many.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its track meet days, scoring at least 41 points in every game and allowing at least 24 in three. The Vols are also very good. Mississippi State might be too. The Bulldogs have overachieved against SP+ projections by 9.5 points per game this season, and, well, if they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.
Current line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5
UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I can’t tell you to actually watch this game — I have a strong sense of morbid curiosity, but it only goes so far. Still, I bring this game up for one reason: UCLA has a 22% chance of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and this is the only game remaining in which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0
Saturday evening
Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The first Arizona-ISU game since 1968 is a big one: The teams are a combined 7-0, and the winner will be in the top tier of Big 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU attempt to pass — a semi-frequent occurrence because of a shaky run game — it will be strength vs. strength. Becht is quite efficient, but ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8
Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run game and an aggressive defense. App State is struggling offensively, but the Mountaineers’ defense ranks second nationally in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they score enough to make things interesting?
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9
Late Saturday
FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the only late game in FBS, and the Big Sky gets a national showcase. Idaho has lost a pair of FBS games by just six combined points and boasts a super fun dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can either throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per game) or run through you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Big Sky loves a good rock fight, but this one has track meet potential.
SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1
Smaller-school showcase
We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Idaho-Montana, here are three more games you should track.
FCS: No. 18 South Dakota at No. 1 North Dakota State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Before the season, I thought this might be the FCS game of the year. South Dakota stumbled early, however, and will now try to beat FCS’ best team with turnovers and random big plays. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, winning three games by a combined 138-17. The skill corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7
FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League looked fantastic in its season debut last week, and these teams — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a combined 105-7 — were as good as anyone. Both teams created loads of big-pass plays, and whoever prevents them better in this one (probably Harvard) moves to 2-0.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1
Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins both dramatic (overtime over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes a big test. The Cal Vulcans are allowing 4.8 yards per play and forcing loads of turnovers, and safety Alexie Sangster Jr. might be one of the best DBs in Division II.
SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0
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