An almost all defensive top 5?! College football’s top 100 players for 2024
It’s an odd season for big names in college football. There are some known commodities, of course — Travis Hunter, Carson Beck, Ollie Gordon II, for example — but there are relatively few established superstars. Just two of the top 10 in last year’s Heisman Trophy voting return for 2024. Just four of the 25 players to earn consensus All-America status last year are back this season. Last year’s national champs, Michigan, sent 13 players to the NFL draft. There’s simply a vacuum of stardom waiting to be filled.
That makes the job of ranking the 100 best players particularly difficult. Quarterback is the most important position on the field, but this year’s crop is a bit thin. There are some elite pass rushers, but that’s a narrow skill set to take the top spot. There’s a reasonable case for at least seven or eight players to be ranked No. 1 overall — and that’s before we even get to the next 99 spots.
But we don’t rank the top 100 players because it’s easy. We do it because it’s hard. And also because it’s fun to debate the relative merits of a 330-pound offensive lineman and a corner with 4.3 speed. — David Hale
Methodology: To compile this year’s list, we utilized a panel of ESPN experts — David Hale, Adam Rittenberg, Bill Connelly, Chris Low and Paolo Uggetti — and went through four rounds of voting to select a pool of players worthy of consideration. They considered players’ past contributions on the field, along with their anticipated roles for 2024, their recruiting pedigrees and their draft stocks, and formulated a reasonable expectation for this coming season. Then they debated, argued and discussed (and possibly played a few rounds of rock paper scissors as a tiebreaker) to put them in order, 1 through 100.
The result is an unimpeachable ranking of the 100 best players in college football for the 2024 season.
Jump to: 100-76 | 75-51 | 50-26 | 25-1
CB, Florida State, Junior
2023 stats: 29 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 12 PBUs
2023 ranking: NR
A big, long corner whom head coach Mike Norvell describes as a future All-American, Thomas showed glimpses of his immense potential in 2023, racking up 12 pass breakups, a forced fumble and 4.5 tackles for loss. Thomas contested 24 of his 35 targets and allowed just 172 yards and one touchdown all season. He played in press coverage on nearly half his coverage snaps, but only two passes were completed for 20 yards or more against him.
S, Alabama, Senior
2023 stats: 51 tackles, 1 INT, 4 PDs
2023 ranking: NR
Moore has been a mainstay in Alabama’s secondary seemingly forever, and he has played 2,334 snaps in 52 games the past four seasons. He was a permanent captain as a senior in 2023 and will take on an even greater leadership role in coach Kalen DeBoer’s first season. He’s moving from the Star position to safety, which will put him further away from the line of scrimmage.
CB, NC State, Senior
2023 stats: 23 solo, 2 INTs, 10 PDs
2023 ranking: NR
White has been dominant over the past two seasons at NC State. He has been targeted 116 times since the start of the 2022 season, and he has allowed just three completions of more than 20 yards. Opposing QBs have posted a woeful 10.9 raw QBR when targeting White in that span, and he has allowed just 4.1 yards per target, tied for the fifth-lowest mark among Power 5 DBs. Of the four players ahead of him, one is still active and three were previous All-Americans, including two who were selected in the first round of this year’s NFL draft.
OL, Miami, Junior
2023 stats: 11 pressures allowed, 2 sacks allowed
2023 ranking: NR
Rivers is widely considered a potential first-round draft pick next year, but for now, he’s locking down Miami QBs’ blind side. Rivers allowed just 11 pressures and two sacks on 847 snaps at left tackle last season, while posting a 1.9% blown block rate that ranked second among ACC left tackles.
TE, Notre Dame, Senior
2023 stats: 29 catches, 422 yards, 1 TD
2023 ranking: NR
Evans appears to be the heir apparent to Notre Dame’s exceptional legacy of game-changing tight ends. While his 2023 season was limited by an injury that cost him the final four games, he still finished second on the team with 422 receiving yards, and his six-catch, 134-yard performance in a win over Duke was one of the season’s highlights.
S, Purdue, Sophomore
2023 stats: 74 solo tackles, 2 FFs, 6 INTs, 2 PDs
2023 ranking: NR
How good was Thieneman last season? Just ask opposing QBs, who targeted him just 11 times all year — or 2.6% of his snaps in coverage. That was the lowest rate of any DB in college football with at least 300 snaps. What’s even more astounding is that, of those 11 targets, he intercepted six and broke up two more. The lesson here: Eleven targets was at least eight too many.
CB, Arizona, Junior
2023 stats: 15 PBUs, 16 PDs, 1 INT
2023 ranking: NR
A possible first-round NFL pick in 2025, Davis had a breakout 2023 season as Arizona finished ranked No. 11 in the country. He was an honorable-mention All-Pac-12 selection but given second-team honors by The Associated Press.
QB, Kansas State, Sophomore
2023 stats: 479 yards, 5 TDs
2023 ranking: NR
A top-100 national recruit, Johnson was a huge get for the Wildcats, ranked as the top player in Kansas and the top dual-threat QB in the country. Johnson has legitimate 4.3 speed and is a dangerous runner who played in eight games as a true freshman. He was named the MVP of the first game he started in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. With last season’s starter, Will Howard, transferring to Ohio State, the job is Johnson’s full time.
QB, Tennessee, Freshman
2023 stats: 314 yards, 2 TDs, 79.3 QBR
2023 ranking: NR
A top-25 recruit in 2023, Iamaleava gave us a taste of what he’s capable of in 2023, completing 28 of 45 passes for 314 yards and two touchdowns, scrambling nine times for 72 yards and rushing for three bowl TDs versus Iowa. He looks like the total package.
QB, USC, Junior
2023 stats: 681 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT
2023 ranking: NR
Not many players on this list, if any, secured a spot on the efforts of one single game, but Moss — who has been biding his time behind Caleb Williams the past two seasons — made the most of his opportunity in last year’s Holiday Bowl. Against Louisville, the junior exploded for 372 yards and a bowl-record six touchdowns, which set him on the path to securing the starting spot for USC this fall.
CB, Louisville, Senior
2023 stats: 49 tackles, 3 INTs, 12 PBUs
2023 ranking: NR
Arguably the ACC’s best lockdown corner in 2023, Riley was the lynchpin of an exceptional Louisville secondary, intercepting three passes and surrendering an opponent QBR of just 8.7. Riley was in coverage for nearly 500 snaps last season and didn’t allow a touchdown.
LB, Old Dominion, Senior
2023 stats: 51 solo, 4.5 sacks, 1 FF
2023 ranking: 60
Over the past two seasons, Henderson has been a part of 324 tackles in 24 games, an incredible 13.5 per game and one for every 5.1 snaps. In that span, no one else made even 280 tackles. He had more tackles for loss (24.5) than missed tackles (21). He is an absolute tackling machine.
CB, Virginia Tech, Senior
2023 stats: 3 INTs, 8 PBUs, 2.8 yards allowed per target
2023 ranking: 80
Virginia Tech likes to tout its reputation as DBU, but it’s been some time since the Hokies produced a genuine star at the position. Strong figures to change that. Last season, Strong was as dominant as any corner in the country, with QBs completing just 25% of their throws targeting him, allowing just 2.8 yards per target (third in FBS) and just 0.29 yards per coverage snap.
QB, SMU, Junior
2023 stats: 3,197 yards, 32 total TDs
2023 ranking: NR
As explosive a passer as there was in the country last season, Stone started 12 games and led SMU to its first conference title since 1984 while throwing for 28 touchdowns and just six picks. Stone threw multiple touchdowns without an interception in six of his final seven games last season, and his 9.3 yards-per-pass average ranked ninth nationally.
WR, Texas, Junior
2023 stats: 48 receptions, 668 yards, 4 TDs
2023 ranking: NR
After catching 48 passes for 668 yards as a sophomore at Alabama, Bond decided not to stick around when coach Nick Saban announced his retirement. Bond was increasingly more involved in the Crimson Tide’s offense as the season went along and was a key performer in the SEC championship game upset of Georgia, when he caught five passes for 79 yards.
OL, Arizona, Junior
2023 stats: Allowed 2 sacks in 889 snaps
2023 ranking: NR
Savaiinaea was one of the better offensive linemen in the Pac-12 the day he walked onto campus at Arizona in 2022 following a standout career at famed St. Louis High in Hawai’i. He has started all 25 games since arriving and has developed into a dominant force in both run and pass blocking. He has played a major role in Arizona’s rise from a one-win team in 2021 to a 10-win team in 2023.
CB, Kentucky, Junior
2023 stats: 5 INT, 68 tackles, 6 PBUs
2023 ranking: 97
The junior from Michigan was ranked outside the top 100 cornerback prospects when he signed with the Wildcats in 2021. Last season, he led the SEC and ranked fifth nationally with five interceptions. In a 45-28 win at Vanderbilt, Hairston returned two interceptions for touchdowns and had a career-high three pass breakups.
RB, Georgia, Junior
2023 stats: 131 carries, 753 yards, 8 TDs
2023 ranking: 86
The Bulldogs like to rotate their backs, but they could lean heavily on Etienne, who led rival Florida in rushing average (68.4 ypg), rushing touchdowns (8) and yards per carry (5.7) last fall. Etienne, the younger brother of Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr., had three rushing touchdowns against LSU last season. He also contributed as a receiver (21 receptions) and on returns (224 kickoff return yards).
QB, Notre Dame, Senior
2022 stats: 2,967 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs
2023 ranking: NR
After a 4-0 start to the 2023 season, Leonard nearly led Duke to a massive upset over Notre Dame before going down with an ankle injury. He came back to make two more starts, but his final stat line — three TD passes, four rushing TDs — hardly tells the story of his impact. Prior to the injury, he was 13-5 as Duke’s starter over the past two seasons, racking up more than 5,000 yards of total offense and 40 total touchdowns. Now he’s at Notre Dame, where expectations are sky-high for 2024.
QB, Texas A&M, Sophomore
2023 stats: 979 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTs
2023 ranking: NR
Weigman’s sample size in 3½ games last season was small, but he looked like a quarterback who could lift the Aggies out of their doldrums before he went down with a foot injury against Auburn. In a 52-10 rout of New Mexico, he threw five touchdowns, the most in regulation by an A&M passer since Johnny Manziel in 2013. In a 47-3 win against Louisiana-Monroe, Weigman completed 25 of 29 attempts (86.2%), the highest completion percentage (minimum 20 attempts) in school history.
CB, Ohio State, Senior
2023 stats: 1 FF, 1 INT, 8 PDs
2023 ranking: NR
Burke’s skill set is undeniable, with NFL scouts viewing him as a possible first-round draft pick. Last season, he allowed completions on just 38.5% of his targets, picked off one pass and broke up nine others while blossoming into one of the most effective press-coverage corners in the country. The one area Burke needs to show some improvement this season, however, is with big plays. He allowed just 15 completions all season, but seven of them went for 20 yards or more.
WR, UNLV, Senior
2023 stats: 88 receptions, 1,483 yards, 8 TDs
2023 ranking: NR
A perfect all-around skill player for UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Michigan State transfer ranked third nationally in receiving yards in 2023 and topped 140 yards six times, including four straight late games as UNLV was making a charge to the MWC championship game.
WR, USC, Sophomore
2023 stats: 31 receptions, 320 yards, 2 TDs
2023 ranking: 83
The USC freshman exploded onto the scene last year as one of the fastest players in the sport and his 774 punt and kickoff return yards earned him an All-America team spot. Now the real challenge begins. Not only will Branch be a known quantity that special teams will be selling out to stop, but the Trojans need him to be one of the offense’s top producing receivers in a post-Caleb Williams world.
CB, Kansas, Senior
2023 stats: 32 tackles, 4 INTs, 9 PBUs
2023 ranking: NR
A lockdown corner who doesn’t get a lot of passes thrown in his direction, Bryant is a two-time first-team All-Big 12 selection who returned for his senior season. He is eighth in school history with nine career INTs and his two pick-sixes are tied for the most at KU all-time.
DE, Arkansas, Senior
2023 stats: 44 total tackles, 22 solo, 6.5 sacks
2023 ranking: NR
When Jackson transferred to Arkansas from LSU after his freshman season, he was coming off a torn ACL and was thin. Now, 6-7 and 280 pounds, Jackson might just now be scratching the surface of his abilities, according to Hogs coach Sam Pittman. That’s a scary thought after Jackson piled up 9.5 sacks combined over the past two seasons.
DT, Michigan, Junior
2023 stats: 16 solo, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT
2023 ranking: NR
In his second season at Michigan, Grant quickly became not just one of the defensive stalwarts of a stout defense but one of the most physically imposing players in the country. Grant tallied 16 solo tackles and 3.5 sacks, including a key one in the national championship game. Going into his third season, the sky seems to be the limit for a player ready to once again showcase his talent and unique physicality.
WR, Oklahoma, Junior
2023 stats: 47 receptions, 629 yards, 7 TDs
2023 ranking: NR
Despite playing for a 4-8 Purdue team last season, Burks was one of the top non-quarterback additions in the winter transfer portal. He gives new Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold a No. 1 target who can find the end zone (seven touchdowns in 2023) and stretch defenses. Burks had a reception of 42 yards or longer in four games last fall, including an 84-yard score against Fresno State.
S, Oklahoma, Senior
2023 stats: 37 solo, 6 INTs, 4 PDs
2023 ranking: NR
Bowman has started 29 of the 35 games he has played in his career and was named a first-team All-Big 12 player for his efforts in 2023. He was second in the country with six interceptions (three of which he took back for touchdowns) and ranked third on the team with 63 total tackles.
RB, Michigan, Junior
2023 stats: 119 carries, 5 TDs, 497 yards
2023 ranking: NR
After three years of playing behind standout backs Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum, Edwards gets his chance to be Michigan’s lead back. The timing couldn’t be better as he’s on the cover of the College Football 25 video game. Edwards showcased his speed late in 2022 when he had 520 rushing yards on only 70 carries in Michigan’s final three games.
QB, Liberty, Junior
2023 stats: 2,876 yards, 32 TDs, 6 INTs
2023 ranking: 91
Salter was by far the most effective quarterback in the Group of 5 last season, producing an 83.7 Total QBR (ninth overall) and averaging both 9.4 yards per dropback and 7.5 yards per carry (not including a small number of sacks). He’s the perfect fit for the dynamic Jamey Chadwell offense.
CB, Oregon, Senior
2023 stats: 41 solo, 3 INTs, 14 PDs
2023 ranking: NR
From purple to green, Muhammad’s offseason move was a short one down from Seattle to Eugene where he should become one of the Ducks’ key defensive players this season. Muhammad had 3 interceptions, 2 sacks and 46 tackles last season and is already getting plenty of hype from his new Oregon teammates, ready to crown him one of the best defensive backs in college football.
RB, Penn State, Junior
2023 stats: 902 yards, 6 TDs, 172 carries
2023 ranking: NR
He has shared carries with Nicholas Singleton in his first two seasons but projects as the stronger NFL draft prospect. Allen earned second-team All-Big Ten honors last fall and has shown remarkably similar production in his first two college seasons. His usage as a pass catcher likely will increase under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
OL, Alabama, Sophomore
2023 stats: 80.7 run-blocking grade
2023 ranking: NR
After helping Washington reach the CFP national championship game last season, Brailsford followed DeBoer to Alabama. He’s expected to help fill a major void on the Tide’s offensive line. He was the anchor of a unit that won the Joe Moore Award as the best offensive line in the FBS. The best news: He has three seasons of eligibility remaining.
LB, Georgia, Junior
2023 stats: 14 solo tackles, 5 sacks, 1 FF
2023 ranking: NR
He has been a reserve in his first two seasons with the Bulldogs but is expected to occupy a much more significant role this fall. Walker led Georgia with five sacks and had a forced fumble against Florida. The former ESPN top-40 recruit could rise up NFL draft boards with a big junior season.
WR, Miami, Senior
2023 stats: 85 receptions, 1,092 receiving yards, 6 TDs
2023 ranking: NR
Restrepo caught at least five passes in 10 of Miami’s 13 games last season, finishing with 85 grabs for 1,092 yards and six touchdowns despite a revolving door at QB. Restrepo was Miami’s safety blanket in the passing game, dominating the slot, including three games with at least 11 catches. Restrepo was just the second Miami receiver with at least 1,000 yards in a season in the playoff era.
QB, Missouri, Senior
2023 stats: 3,317 yards, 21 TDs, 6 INTs
2023 ranking: NR
In his second season as a starter, Cook led the Tigers to an 11-win season and a victory in a New Year’s Six bowl game. He might be even better in 2024, especially with star receiver Luther Burden III coming back. Last season, Cook broke former Kentucky star Andre’ Woodson’s SEC record of 325 consecutive pass attempts without an interception at 365.
LB, Texas, Sophomore
2023 stats: 41 solo, 5 sacks, 1 FF
2023 ranking: NR
He was the No. 1 linebacker recruit in the 2023 class, and he became an immediate contributor for the best Texas team in 14 years. Hill ranked second on the Longhorns in tackles (66) and sacks (five), and his 95.7% tackle success rate was as high as you’ll see for a linebacker. A surefire star.
DE, Virginia Tech, Senior
2023 stats: 23 solo, 9.5 sacks, 3 FFs
2023 ranking: NR
Powell-Ryland transferred to Virginia Tech last season from Florida and put up big numbers in his first year with the Hokies, with 40 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss (fifth in the ACC) and 9.5 sacks (second in the ACC). Powell-Ryland had multiple sacks in four games last season and is hoping for more consistency in 2024.
CB, Wisconsin, Junior
2023 stats: 27 solo, 7 INTs, 5 PDs
2023 ranking: NR
Hallman’s journey has been one to watch. After being a redshirt freshman who barely got any snaps during his first two seasons, Hallman made a leap last year. The Miami native secured a starting spot in the Badgers’ secondary and tallied a nation-leading seven interceptions on his way to All-America status. Going into his junior season, Hallman somehow remains one of the more underrated defenders — and players — in college football and should be primed for another big year.
DE, Ole Miss, Senior
2023 stats: 39 tackles, 11½ TFLs, 7 sacks
2023 ranking: NR
The Florida transfer was one of the most coveted pass rushers in the portal, and Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin hopes he reaches his ceiling in Oxford. In 24 starts in four seasons with the Gators, he had 99 tackles, 24.5 tackles for loss and 15 sacks. He recorded a strong 20.7% pass rush win rate in 2023, according to Pro Football Focus.
LB, Alabama, Junior
2023 stats: 67 total tackles, 32 solo, 3 sacks
2023 ranking: 49
The second-leading tackler on Alabama with 67 last season, along with tallying 5.5 for loss and three sacks, Lawson will continue to be all over the field in 2024. He was a semifinalist for the Butkus Award and will undoubtedly be in the running again this season
OL, Minnesota, Senior
2023 stats: 86.7 run-blocking grade
2023 ranking: NR
The 6-foot-6, 330-pound Ersery enters his third season as a starter at tackle and could be one of the top offensive linemen for the 2025 NFL draft. He earned second-team All-Big Ten honors in 2023. His 86.7 run-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus trailed only Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, selected 14th overall in April’s NFL draft.
DT, Ohio State, Senior
2023 stats: 54 total tackles, 20 solo, 3 sacks
2023 ranking: NR
The 327-pound defensive tackle comes off of a breakout season, where he led Ohio State’s defensive linemen in total tackles (53) while tying for the lead in tackles for loss (10). Williams is much more than a space filler, showing pass-rushing talent and affecting passes, as he ranked third on the team with five pass breakups last fall.
OL, Ohio State, Senior
2022-23 stats: Has allowed only three sacks
2023 ranking: NR
On an offensive line that is one of the most experienced in the country, Jackson stands out for his consistency. Over the past two seasons in Columbus, the 6-4, 320-pound Jackson has started every game at left guard and allowed only three sacks during that span. The Texas native opted to forego the NFL draft after last season and return to Ohio State for his senior year, which was a huge boon for the Buckeyes and their aspiring title efforts.
QB, Miami, Senior
2023 stats: 3,735 yards, 25 TDs, 5 INTs
2023 ranking: 52
One of the biggest reasons expectations around Miami have skyrocketed is the addition of Ward, one of the most prolific passers in the country over the past several seasons. In two years at Washington State, Ward threw for 6,963 passing yards, 48 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, while adding 13 rushing touchdowns. He expects to do more at Miami.
WR, Colorado State, Senior
2023 stats: 96 receptions, 1,136 yards, 8 TDs
2023 ranking: NR
Horton has been CSU’s most dangerous offensive player for two straight seasons, catching 167 balls for 2,267 yards and 16 touchdowns in that span. He has gained at least 130 yards in seven of his past 16 games, and he caught 16 passes against Colorado last season. Lanky and dynamic.
OL, Jacksonville State, Senior
2023 stats: 1 blown run block, 1 sack allowed
2023 ranking: NR
A former five-star Georgia signee, Webb landed at Jacksonville State two years ago, and in the Gamecocks’ first season in FBS, he was almost perfect: According to Sports Info Solutions, he attempted 500 run blocks in 2023 … and blew just one of them. He allowed only one sack, too.
QB, Utah, Senior
2022 stats: 3,034 yards, 26 TDs, 8 INTs
2023 ranking: NR
A major knee injury sidelined Rising for all of 2023. Before that, he guided the Utes to back-to-back Pac-12 titles, delivering an MVP performance in the 2022 Pac-12 title game. In 2021, he was the first-team All-Pac-12 selection before settling for an honorable mention nod the following season.
S, Notre Dame, Senior
2023 stats: 7 INTs, 0 TDs allowed, 52 tackles
2023 ranking: 25
A unanimous All-American and winner of the Bronko Nagurski Trophy in 2023, Watts led the nation with seven interceptions. He added 4 pass breakups, 52 tackles and 3 TFLs for good measure. Perhaps more impressive, Watts was in coverage on 350 snaps last season and didn’t allow a touchdown.
QB, Arizona, Sophomore
2023 stats: 2,869 yards 25 TDs, 6 INTs
2023 ranking: 31
Despite beginning the 2023 season as Arizona’s No. 2, Fifita turned in one of the best seasons by a Wildcats quarterback in school history and guided the Wildcats to seven straight wins to end the season. Had Fifita been the starter from the opener, it’s likely he would have received Heisman votes.
DT, Clemson, Sophomore
2023 stats: 13 solo tackles, 1 FF
2023 ranking: NR
As expected, the 6-2, 215-pound Woods had a Freshman All-America-caliber season for the Tigers last year. But headed into this season, Clemson wants to take advantage of his versatility and plans to play him at both defensive tackle (his natural position) and defensive end. Coach Dabo Swinney called Woods one of the team’s “best pass rushers” and said simply, “He’ll play everywhere.”
DE, Texas, Junior
2023 stats: 30 solo tackles, 14 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT
2023 ranking: 98
Moore transfers in to Austin from UTSA, where he owns records for both single-season sacks, with 14 last season, as well as tackles for loss, with 18 in 2022 for the Roadrunners. The 2023 AAC Defensive Player of the Year and first-teamer will fit right in with the Longhorns.
WR, NC State, Sophomore
2023 stats: 10 TDs, 71 receptions
2023 ranking: NR
Here’s the list of Power 5 players in the playoff era who’ve had a season of 800 receiving yards, 300 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns: Ohio State’s Curtis Samuel in 2016 and Concepcion last year. Oh, and did we mention Concepcion did it as a true freshman? Or that he also threw a 17-yard touchdown pass? Or that he’ll be surrounded by a far better supporting cast of skill-position talent in 2024? Yeah, the NC State star is primed for big things this season.
OL, LSU, Junior
2023 stats: 73.7 run-blocking grade
2023 ranking: NR
Jones is one of two anchors on an LSU offensive line that’s going to be a pain for anyone lining up against them to play. He was named second-team All-SEC by coaches as a member of an offensive line that was a Joe Moore Award finalist. He’s also a durable player, having played every offensive snap in 16 of 17 games against SEC opponents in two years, according to LSU.
RB, Miami, Junior
2023 stats: 194 carries, 1,185 yards, 9 TDs
2023 ranking: 92
Martinez was the highest-profile player to enter the transfer portal after spring practice, and he fills an obvious need for the Hurricanes heading into a crucial year. Last season at Oregon State, Martinez ran for 1,185 yards with nine touchdowns, averaging 6.1 yards a carry. Now, he joins quarterback Cam Ward and a slew of other transfers hoping to be difference-makers for the Canes.
DT, Notre Dame, Senior
2023 stats: 28 solo tackles, 2 sacks, 2 FFs
2023 ranking: NR
A second-team All-American last year, Cross returns to Notre Dame for his sixth season as one of the top defensive linemen in the country. Last year, Cross started all 13 games at nose tackle, and had 66 tackles, seven tackles for loss, two sacks and forced two fumbles.
DE, Florida State, Junior
2023 stats: 28 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 2 FFs
2023 ranking: NR
It seems counterintuitive that a player with 14.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks and 10 pass breakups had a “quiet” season, but Payton was often overshadowed last season on defense with Jared Verse, Braden Fiske and Kalen DeLoach often getting more of the headlines. That will not be the case in 2024, as Payton is poised to have his best season yet.
DE, Miami, Sophomore
2023 stats: 44 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 12.5 TFLs
2023 ranking: 94
Bain had a somewhat slow start to his freshman campaign, managing just 1.5 tackles for loss in his first five games. But when the switch flipped, he was borderline unstoppable. Over his final eight games, Bain racked up 17 tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage, a 12% pressure rate, six sacks and 27 pressures — including nine from the interior.
RB, Cal, Junior
2023 stats: 245 carries, 1,305 yards, 12 TDs
2023 ranking: NR
Perhaps a sleeper for Heisman, Ott has not shied away from having big goals for the Bears as they join the ACC. In fact, he has embraced the conference move because he believes it will create more exposure on the East Coast. Those who may not have been watching missed out last year — Ott enters the 2024 season ranked second among all active FBS players with an average of 92.2 rushing yards per game, while his 119.58 all-purpose yards per game ranks fourth.
QB, Ole Miss, Senior
2023 stats: 3,364 yards, 23 TDs, 5 INTs
2023 ranking: NR
Dart led Ole Miss to its first-ever 11-win season in 2023. He threw for 3,364 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just five picks, while adding 389 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. He was named to the 2024 Maxwell Award Preseason watch list, as he and the Rebels try to crack the playoff this season.
QB, Kansas, Junior
2022 stats: 2,014 yards, 18 TDs, 4 INTs
2023 ranking: NR
Last year’s Big 12 Preseason Offensive Player of the Year was sidelined with back problems after just three games. When healthy, Daniels is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country, and he is currently the career leader for completion percentage in Kansas history (63.6%). In 2022, he led Kansas to its first bowl game since 2008, then threw for 544 yards and five TDs and ran for another in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl.
DE, Louisville, Senior
2023 stats: 23 solo, 11 sacks, 3 FFs
2023 ranking: 78
Gillotte enters the season as one of the preseason favorites in the ACC Defensive Player of the Year race after finishing second behind Payton Wilson a year ago. In 2023, Gillotte had 14.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks, but decided to return to school for one more season to not only try to improve his draft stock, but to help the Cards make it back to the ACC championship game. Only this time, he wants to win.
WR, Ole Miss, Senior
2023 stats: 54 receptions, 985 yards, 8 TDs
2023 ranking: 53
Harris began his career at Louisiana Tech, where he spent three seasons before leading the Rebels in receiving yards in 2023 with 985 on 54 receptions. Harris also had eight touchdowns along the way. He was given preseason first-team All-SEC honors by the media.
RB, Texas Tech, Junior
2023 stats: 1,538 yards, 10 TDs
2023 ranking: 62
Brooks opted to return for his senior year with an eye on becoming the Red Raiders’ all-time leading rusher. Though he’s seventh on the school rushing list with 3,052 yards, he’s only 1,167 yards behind No. 1, Byron Hanspard. Last year, Texas Tech leaned on Brooks in conference play, where he averaged 25.7 carries and 130.6 yards per game in the Big 12.
LB, Iowa, Senior
2023 stats: 79 solo, 2 sacks, 1 FF
2023 ranking: 66
Iowa’s defense has carried the team recently, and Higgins has been at the center of it. He led the Big Ten and ranked third nationally with 171 tackles last season, matching the team’s single-season record. The All-America selection was always around the ball, forcing a fumble, intercepting a pass and recording five pass deflections.
RB, Ohio State, Senior
2023 stats: 156 carries, 926 yards, 11 TDs
2023 ranking: 93
One of the nation’s most experienced ball carriers tries to cap his college career like he started it, when he rushed for 1,248 yards and set an Ohio State freshman record with 19 touchdowns (15 rushing, four receiving). Henderson battled injuries in 2022 but earned first-team All-Big Ten honors last fall, when he again reached double digits in touchdowns.
RB, Ohio State, Junior
2023 stats: 271 carries, 15 TDs, 1,158 yards
2023 ranking: NR
The Ole Miss transfer was a two-time first-team All-SEC selection. In 2022, Judkins rushed for 1,567 yards, second only to Georgia great Herschel Walker in rushing yards by an SEC freshman. Judkins broke a Power 5-best 53 tackles last season. With him and TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State boasts a formidable rushing duo.
DE, Ohio State, Senior
2023 stats: 24 solo, 6.5 sacks, 2 FFs
2023 ranking: NR
The former ESPN No. 1 overall recruit truly blossomed last season when he led Ohio State in sacks (6.5) and tackles for loss (10). A second-team All-Big Ten selection, Sawyer will help anchor one of the nation’s most experienced defensive fronts alongside fellow end J.T. Tuimoloau and tackle Tyleik Williams.
LB, Oklahoma, Senior
2023 stats: 51 solo, 3 sacks, 2 FFs, 1 INT
2023 ranking: 89
The senior linebacker is one of the players who will be key to Oklahoma’s success in 2024. An All-Big 12 first-team selection last season, Stutsman led the Sooners with 104 total tackles, 51 solo tackles and 16 tackles for loss. He also had three sacks, a pick, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.
OL, Alabama, Junior
2023 stats: 41 total knockdown blocks, allowed 2.5 sacks
2023 ranking: NR
One of the premier interior offensive linemen in the country, the 6-5, 352-pound Booker also spent some time at tackle this spring and is a dominant blocker wherever he lines up. He was a first-team All-SEC selection last season for the Crimson Tide from his left guard position and a Freshman All-American two years ago.
DE, Georgia, Junior
2023 stats: 9 solo, 4.5 sacks, 1 FF
2023 ranking: NR
Williams should be a first-round pick by the time next April’s NFL draft comes around. The 6-5 junior from Columbus, Georgia, started 10 games for the Dawgs last season, accumulating 18 tackles, 11 solo tackles and 4.5 sacks. He is going to be one of the most disruptive players in college football.
DE, Texas A&M, Junior
2023 stats: 33 solo, 10 sacks, 1 FF
2023 ranking: NR
A Purdue transfer, Scourton had 72 tackles, 48 solo tackles, 17 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 3 passes defended in two seasons with the Boilermakers. Last season, he led the Big Ten in sacks with 10, earning second-team All-Big Ten honors.
WR, Ohio State, Senior
2023 stats: 4 TDs, 41 receptions, 515 yards
2023 ranking: NR
A preseason All-American, Egbuka is on the verge of breaking multiple Ohio State career receiving records. He needs just 1,041 receiving yards and 78 receptions to set new school marks in both categories. Over the past two years, Egbuka has 786 receiving yards after the catch, second most of any Big Ten player.
RB, North Carolina, Junior
2023 stats: 253 carries, 1,504 yards, 15 TDs
2023 ranking: 64
Hampton came in as a highly touted freshman in 2022 but really emerged as the feature back last year, rushing for 1,504 yards and 15 touchdowns while adding 29 receptions for 222 yards and a touchdown as a Doak Walker Award finalist. His rushing yards total ranks second on the school’s single-season list.
TE, Michigan, Sophomore
2023 stats: 4 TDs, 45 receptions, 649 yards
2023 ranking: NR
The 6-5, 245-pound Loveland is coming off a banner year for Michigan’s title team with 649 receiving yards, fourth most among Power 4 tight ends. On top of that, 71.1% of Loveland’s 45 grabs went for either first downs or touchdowns, the second-highest rate in the Big Ten.
RB, Boise State, Junior
2023 stats: 220 carries, 1,347 yards, 14 TDs
2023 ranking: 47
Jeanty ranked first among FBS running backs in both forced missed tackles (100) and receiving yards (459). He trailed only Ollie Gordon II in total yards from scrimmage, topping 100 yards in the category in all but two games. A dynamic, powerful and durable back.
QB, Colorado, Senior
2023 stats: 3,230 yards, 27 TDs, 3 INTs
2023 ranking: 69
Sanders boasted a remarkable 27-to-3 TD-INT ratio last season playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in college football. If his protection is better, Sanders should rank among the national leaders in every statistical category and is widely considered to be in the running for first quarterback selected in the 2025 NFL draft.
QB, Texas, Junior
2023 stats: 3,479 yards, 22 TDs, 6 INTs
2023 ranking: 90
Ewers’ 3,479 passing yards last season were the fifth most in school history. A 22-game starter in his career, the 6-2, 210-pound junior was a second-team All-Big 12 selection by the AP last year. He completed 69% of his passes and accounted for 27 touchdowns. His six 300-yard passing games tied for the most in a season in program history.
QB, Alabama, Junior
2023 stats: 2,834 yards, 23 TDs, 6 INTs
2023 ranking: 18
Milroe was one of the country’s hottest players during the second half of last season and finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting. He accounted for 26 touchdowns and turned the ball over just five times in his final 10 regular-season games. His fourth-and-31 touchdown pass to win the Auburn game was one of the best plays of 2023 in college football.
DT, Kentucky, Junior
2023 stats: 28 solo, 7.5 sacks
2023 ranking: NR
The 6-6, 348-pound junior has started 24 straight games. Despite frequent double-teams, Walker led the Wildcats with 12.5 tackles for loss last season and finished eighth in the SEC with 7.5 sacks. He was a first-team All-SEC selection by the AP and is equally disruptive against both the run and pass. Walker also has incredible footwork.
LB, Penn State, Junior
2023 stats: 26 solo, 4.5 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT
2023 ranking: NR
Carter became the first Penn State linebacker since 2007 to finish with at least six sacks and 10 tackles for loss in a season. He has since moved to defensive end, where he’ll spearhead the Nittany Lions pass rush after posting a 24.4% pressure rate on 90 pass rushing attempts last year.
S, Iowa, Senior
2023 stats: 47 solo, 1 FF, 3 INTs
2023 ranking: NR
Castro was everywhere last year with 74 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss and three interceptions. Among Big Ten DBs with at least 70 tackles, he led the league surrendering just 3.4 yards per passing attempt as the primary defender. He also allowed a completion rate of just 40% as the primary defender in coverage.
WR, Oregon, Senior
2023 stats: 86 receptions, 1,182 yards, 10 TDs
2023 ranking: NR
Troy Franklin garnered more attention in 2023, but Johnson set Oregon’s single-season record with 86 receptions and has 209 receptions for 2,780 yards the past three seasons at Oregon and Troy. The prolific senior should be the top target for new quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
OL, Georgia, Senior
2023 stats: 87.4 pass-blocking grade, 1.3% pressure rate allowed
2023 ranking: NR
One of the men responsible for the safety of Carson Beck is Ratledge, and he’s a good one to have in your security detail. He started at right guard for 13 of Georgia’s 14 games for an offensive line unit that ranked first in the SEC in sacks allowed with 0.93. He was named a second-team All-American in 2023.
QB, Oregon, Senior
2023 stats: 3,660 passing yards, 30 TDs, 6 INTs
2023 ranking: 28
This two-time transfer brings experience to Oregon with 49 career starts. He already ranks in the top eight in FBS history in both passing yards (14,865) and passing touchdowns (125), earning all-conference honors for both the Sooners and Golden Knights. There’s a reason why Gabriel is the preseason Heisman betting favorite.
LB, Clemson, Senior
2023 stats: 37 solo, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT
2023 ranking: NR
Carter turned heads after the season-opening loss to Duke last year when he said he did not feel as if he was in game shape. He still had a solid season with 9.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 6 pass breakups, an interception and a fumble recovery, but he returned for his senior season with more in mind — domination.
LB, LSU, Junior
2023 stats: 43 solo, 5.5 sacks, 3 FFs, 1 INT
2023 ranking: NR
Perkins will remain primarily at inside linebacker for his junior season, but coach Brian Kelly said Perkins would also slide outside on passing downs. The 6-1, 220-pound Perkins has 26 tackles for loss and 13 sacks in 27 career games. He was a second-team All-SEC selection by the coaches last season and a Freshman All-American and first-team All-SEC selection by the AP two years ago.
WR, Arizona, Junior
2023 stats: 90 receptions, 1,402 yards, 8 TDs
2023 ranking: NR
A likely first-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft, McMillan is a strong candidate to win the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s best receiver following an incredible sophomore season. With the departure of Jacob Cowing (90 catches in 2023) for the NFL, T-Mac will become an even more essential piece in Arizona’s offense and it’s reasonable to expect he’ll face more double-teams than in the past.
CB, Notre Dame, Junior
2023 stats: 25 solo, 3 INTs, 10 PDs
2023 ranking: NR
Morrison emerged as a shutdown cornerback as a true freshman and continued to impress last year as a sophomore with 10 pass breakups. His presence helped lead Notre Dame to the No. 1 pass efficiency defense in the country. Morrison had offseason surgery on his right shoulder, and his status for the opener against Texas A&M is up in the air.
S, Ohio State, Sophomore
2023 stats: 70 solo, 1 FF, 2 INTs
2023 ranking: 39
The reigning SEC Freshman of the Year became the first Alabama true freshman since at least 1970 to lead the Crimson Tide in tackles with 107, which was 40 more than any other Alabama player. Downs’ nose for the ball gives an already loaded Ohio State defense yet another weapon.
S, Georgia, Junior
2023 stats: 31 solo, 3 INTs, 7 PDs
2023 ranking: 57
A starter since his true freshman season, Starks has been one of the cornerstones of Kirby Smart’s defense the past two seasons. The 6-1, 205-pound junior was a consensus All-American a year ago. He was fourth on Georgia’s team with 52 total tackles and also had three interceptions. Starks was one of five finalists for the Bronko Nagurski Award as the country’s top defender.
OL, Texas, Junior
2023 stats: 1 sack allowed in 550 pass-blocking situations
2023 ranking: NR
After a first season that saw Banks earn Freshman All-America honors, he blossomed into an AFCA second-team All-America selection last season at left tackle. The 6-4, 320-pound junior has played in and started 27 games. He allowed just one sack in 550 pass-blocking situations last season. Texas finished 17th nationally in passing offense and 25th in rushing offense.
RB, Oklahoma State, Junior
2023 stats: 285 carries, 1,732 yards, 21 TDs
2023 ranking: 11
Gordon was a breakout star in 2023 after rushing for 308 yards in 2022, garnering the most Heisman votes among running backs after leading the country in rushing (1,732) and yards from scrimmage (2,062) in 2023. He was named the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, an unanimous All-American and just the fourth sophomore to win the Doak Walker Award. He’s now a Heisman front-runner this season.
QB, Georgia, Senior
2023 stats: 3,941 yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs
2023 ranking: 22
In just his first season as a starter, Beck ranked third nationally and first in the SEC with 3,941 passing yards. He was fourth in the nation with a 72.4 completion percentage. Beck threw 24 touchdown passes and rushed for four more and was intercepted only six times in 417 pass attempts. The 6-2, 220-pound senior could be the top quarterback taken in the 2025 NFL draft.
OL, LSU, Junior
2023 stats: No sacks allowed
2023 ranking: NR
Campbell makes up half of perhaps the top tackle tandem in the country with Emery Jones Jr. on the other side. Campbell returns for a third straight season as the Tigers’ starter at left tackle. He was a first-team All-SEC selection last season and second-team selection as a freshman. The 6-6, 320-pound Campbell didn’t allow any sacks in 13 games last season.
WR, Missouri, Junior
2023 stats: 86 receptions, 1,212 yards, 9 TDs
2023 ranking: 15
After a dynamic freshman season, the 5-11, 208-pound Burden was named a second-team All-American by the AP a year ago. He finished second in the SEC and ninth nationally with 1,212 receiving yards. Burden reached the 100-yard receiving mark six times in the regular season. He’s electric in the open field and ranked third nationally with 725 yards after the catch.
CB, Michigan, Sophomore
2023 stats: 20 solo, 4 INTs, 4 PDs
2023 ranking: NR
A consensus All-Big Ten performer, Johnson had four interceptions last year, including a pick on the first play of the second half in Michigan’s national title victory over Washington. Opposing QBs had a QBR of just 4.3 (scale of 0-to-100) targeting Johnson last year, easily the lowest score for Big Ten DBs.
CB/WR, Colorado, Junior
2023 stats: 57 catches, 721 rec yards, 5 TDs, 30 tackles, 3 INTs
2023 ranking: 35
The most talented two-way player of his generation, Hunter has the ability to be an All-American on either side of the ball. For the Buffs to improve off their four-win season a year ago, it will likely require a monster season from Hunter, who is all but guaranteed to leave for the NFL after the season.
DT, Michigan, Sophomore
2023 stats: 23 solo, 3 sacks, 1 FF
2023 ranking: NR
The 320-pound Graham is back to anchor the inside of a revamped but still talented Michigan defense that lost several players to the NFL draft. Graham, a second-team All-American last year, had 7.5 tackles for loss on a Michigan defense that led the nation in defensive EPA.
DE, Tennessee, Junior
2023 stats: 18 solo, 9.5 sacks, 2 FFs, 1 INT
2023 ranking: NR
Entering his third season at Tennessee, the 6-5, 243-pound Pearce is the top pass rusher in the country despite having started only three career games. He’s projected as a top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL draft and has 16.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks in his first two seasons. Pearce was a first-team All-SEC selection last season by both the AP and coaches after ranking fifth nationally with 38 total pressures.
The final weekend of the MLB season is here — and there’s still plenty to play for!
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers also taking home the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up the NL East title, and the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their fifth straight NL West title on Thursday. The New York Mets beat the Marlins on Saturday and, with the Cincinnati Reds playing on the Brewers later Saturday night, they’re (momentarily, at least) back in the lead in the NL wild-card race.
In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a playoff spot and the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners joined them days later. While the Detroit Tigers clinched a postseason spot Saturday, in one the biggest twists of the 2025 season, the Cleveland Guardians have rocked the playoff picture with a September surge, emerging as a serious contender in the AL wild-card race and for the AL Central title.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Sept. 13 and followed up by securing their third straight NL Central title. They earned a bye in the first round and are playing for the NL’s overall No. 1 seed.
The Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason on Sept. 14. With a win the following night, Philadelphia clinched the NL East title for the second straight year. On Wednesday, the Phils beat the Marlins to clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the NLDS.
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Sept. 17 and will be making their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018. With a win on Saturday, they clinched home-field advantage in their wild-card series with the Padres.
With a win Thursday over the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers clinched the NL West title for the 12th time in the past 13 years. They will be the No. 3 seed in the NL and host the No. 6 seed in the wild-card series.
The Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a postseason berth with a with over the Royals on Sept. 21. They are currently tied with the Yankees for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Padres clinched their fourth postseason trip in six years with a walk-off win over the Brewers on Monday. They will travel to Chicago to meet the Cubs in the wild-card series.
The Yankees became the second AL team to clinch a playoff spot with a walk-off win over the White Sox on Tuesday. They are currently tied with the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Mariners clinched their first postseason appearance since 2022 on Tuesday and, with a 9-2 win on Wednesday, won their first AL West crown since 2001. They earned a bye in the first round.
With a win against the Tigers on Friday, Boston clinched an AL Wild Card berth. They will be the road team in one wild-card series.
With a win in Boston on Saturday, Detroit clinched at least an AL Wild Card berth. They are still in play to win the AL Central.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
Upcoming clinch possibilities:
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The Guardians can clinch today with a win OR a loss by the Astros
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The Brewers can clinch the NL’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason today with a win OR a loss by the Phillies
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The Blue Jays can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win OR a loss by the Yankees
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The Yankees can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win AND a loss by the Blue Jays
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Tigers at (3) Guardians, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Tigers/Guardians vs. (2) Mariners, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Reds at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Reds/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Tiebreaker scenarios
AL East teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Win tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians
New York Yankees
Win tiebreaker: Mariners
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Guardians, Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Guardians, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers
AL Central teams
Cleveland Guardians
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Tigers, Yankees, Blue Jays
Lose tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
Win tiebreaker: Red Sox, Astros
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Mariners
AL West teams
Seattle Mariners
Win tiebreaker: Tigers, Guardians, Red Sox
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Yankees
Houston Astros
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Red Sox, Tigers
NL East teams
Philadelphia Phillies
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers
New York Mets
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Reds
NL Central teams
Milwaukee Brewers
Win tiebreaker: Phillies
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
Chicago Cubs
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Cincinnati Reds
Win tiebreaker: Mets
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
NL West teams
Los Angeles Dodgers
Win tiebreaker: Padres
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers, Cubs, Phillies
San Diego Padres
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Dodgers
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays are trying to hold for the AL’s No. 1 seed and division title. While Toronto has the tiebreaker in the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are both headed to the postseason regardless. And the Seattle Mariners separated themselves from the Houston Astros in a two-team AL West race to win their first division crown since 2001. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are going toe-to-toe with the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central while also playing themselves into a tight race for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds battling for the final playoff spot, with the Dodgers (who won the division) and Padres headed to the postseason from the NL West.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
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Bill Connelly
Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.
Oregon and Penn State have beaten seven overwhelmed opponents by an average score of 48-8; their seasons begin in earnest in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first trip to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even bigger from a consequences perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Top-ranked Ohio State’s first road test of the season pits the Buckeyes against a Washington team with one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
Those are just the main events! On Friday night, resurgent Florida State visits a wonderfully surprising Virginia team. After last week’s merciless blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to avoid a massive letdown at Iowa, where many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the first time in a battle of frustrating and spectacularly explosive teams. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have played many wild and silly games over the past decade, have lots on the line in College Station. USC tests its unbeaten record in Champaign against scorned Illinois. We even get a Big Sky Saturday night with a battle of FCS top-10 teams!
We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.
Games are Saturday unless noted; times are Eastern.
The season begins in Happy Valley
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.
Penn State traded résumé-building opportunities and a little bit of margin for error for three sure wins and got them. Oregon also hasn’t played much of a murderer’s row; the Ducks have dominated four teams ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They didn’t allow their first non-garbage-time touchdown until last Saturday. Nothing is a must-win game for two name-brand Big Ten teams with unbeaten records, but neither of these teams will have sparkling strength-of-schedule rankings if they’re in, say, a large pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It’s probably best to win this one.
Penn State’s defense has been every bit as dominant as we expected, considering James Franklin already had a top-five defense and added the best defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles) to lead it. The Nittany Lions force turnovers and don’t allow big plays, and they’ve continued to dominate the red zone as they did last season. The run defense maybe hasn’t dominated as much as I thought it would, but the pass defense has been just about perfect: Corner Elliot Washington II has more catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has been as good as advertised (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up where he left off in last year’s College Football Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman end Chaz Coleman has quickly become a weapon, too.
To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.
Still, you’d like to think that, with so few deep-ball attempts, Allar would be completing more than 65% of his passes. And you’d like to think that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton would be averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, another star back, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, lots of broken tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have done their jobs, and tight end Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. But Allar and Singleton haven’t been as sharp as necessary. Can they turn it on now that the season is really starting? Especially against this defense?
The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.
I was unsure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season because it would be relying on so many new starters, but the Ducks are fourth in points per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in overall SP+. It seems as though things are going pretty well. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as automatic as coordinator Will Stein could want, completing 75% of his passes with just one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has also connected on four of seven downfield shots of more than 30 yards. His QB radar is nearly a perfect circle now.
Running back Jayden Limar enjoyed a star turn during Noah Whittington‘s injury absence, but now Whittington should be back. It has all worked. Even against a top-40 Northwestern defense, the Ducks scored on six of nine drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But this is still the biggest game of Moore’s career, and it will be played against one of the best defenses in the country in front of maybe college football’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no less). It’s impossible to know a team is ready for that until it proves it.
Current line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3
Bama has a lot to lose at Georgia
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
At this point last year, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 game that featured a huge Bulldogs comeback and maybe the greatest play of the season. Then, they turned around and lost to Vanderbilt in the upset of the year. In a lovely instance of symmetry, Bama once again gets Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. But the challenges won’t stop there. Six of the Tide’s next seven opponents rank 16th or better in SP+, and thanks to their dreadful Week 1 showing at Florida State, they don’t have much margin for error. If they lose in Athens on Saturday, in their first road trip since Tallahassee, they might have none.
Since their game against FSU, the Tide have been just about perfect. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin obviously aren’t amazing, but Bama overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 48.4 points against the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in points per possession, though its one-dimensionality could become an issue: The Tide are 18th in passing success rate* but 87th in rushing success rate and are therefore throwing far more frequently than the national average. Against Wisconsin, Bama running backs carried 15 times for just 45 yards, but it didn’t matter because quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards against ULM. Like I said: just about perfect.)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
That pass-heavy ratio probably won’t change Saturday because if you’re going to move the ball on Georgia, it’s through the air: The Dawgs are 10th in rushing success rate allowed but 86th against the pass. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: four targets, four catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should find matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and perhaps Isaiah Horton, who has caught nine of nine passes for 105 yards and 2 scores — to exploit.
The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.
After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III‘s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.
Efficiency levels are solid despite the negative plays, but big plays are an issue.
You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.
Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.
Because Georgia saved itself against Tennessee with yet another overtime win (its past three wins against power conference teams went to OT), the Dawgs have a little less to lose Saturday. But that’s the fun thing about college football: try to tell the 93,033 in attendance that one team needs this one a little more than the other. Huge games will always feel like huge games, and Bama-Georgia will always be a huge game.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1
Ole Miss’ revenge or another LSU thriller?
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)
In five seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents five times. You could say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I guess that would make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, especially because it probably prevented an Ole Miss national title.) For the next 60 years, though, these types of meetings were sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to decide the SEC West, but that was about it until last year, when the Tigers won a 29-26 overtime thriller without leading for a second.
Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.
It looks like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will start again for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State transfer has completed 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with only two sacks, adding 198 non-sack rushing yards and two more scores. The approach with Chambliss has been simple: don’t worry about complicated intermediate passing, just woo defensive backs close to the line of scrimmage with relentless short passing, then hit ’em deep. He has completed 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or more yards downfield.
Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.
Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.
The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.
The passing game has been sharp enough that a dreadful run game hasn’t yet cost the Tigers. But whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in rushing success rate. Caden Durham got hurt last week against Southeastern Louisiana, but he’s averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with more yards after contact) more touches might not be a bad idea.
The Tigers’ reliance on the pass creates an interesting contrast: Ole Miss’ pass defense has been efficient (18th in passing success rate allowed), but the run defense has been awful (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding rarely blitzes, and Rebel defenders rarely end up in the backfield, but they do a good job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have completed just 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You move the ball on Ole Miss on the ground, but LSU moves the ball through the air. We love some nice narrative tension!
Current line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5
The No. 1 team heads west
No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It appears conventional wisdom has forgotten about the Washington Huskies. The 2023 national runners-up rank first nationally in points per drive and ninth in yards per play, they have beaten three overwhelmed opponents by an average of 56-18, and they boast one of the nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking back Jonah Coleman. But they have zero AP poll votes. How?
Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.
With safety Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in tackle Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes likely have the tools to frustrate a young quarterback like Williams, and considering Washington’s banged-up defense ranks 61st in points allowed per drive without having played a top-80 offense (per SP+), it’s hard to see the Huskies making enough stops.
Despite one-third of its games coming against Texas’ excellent defense, Ohio State ranks second in passing success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes’ run game isn’t nearly as strong as we’re used to seeing — then again, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — but quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (combined: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I don’t know how UW disrupts that connection with star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah is also out.)
So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:
• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.
• Net YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is one of the nation’s best teams at grinding out YAC and allowing none for opponents.
• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.
• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.
Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0
YAC kings in action
That’s right, this week’s keyword is YAC. Yards after contact are the secret weapon for teams exceeding expectations, and quite a few Week 5 games will highlight 2025’s YAC kings. That includes two games pitting YAC kings against one another.
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).
FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.
Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).
Indiana (sixth in net YAC) hits the road to face an Iowa team (ninth in net YAC) that has upset four top-15 teams at home in the past decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have to watch out for a letdown after last week’s Illinois blowout, but while Iowa’s offense has scored 30 points three times this season, the only decent defense the Hawkeyes have faced, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium will need to summon loads of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).
Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3
No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1
Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
If you’re a fan of the multiview box, this one will be a lovely complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not only do you get another glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in net YAC), but you also get to watch a Rice option offense averaging 246 rushing yards per game.
Current line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7
Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).
Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the primary driver of NC State’s 3-1 start. The defense gives up far too many big plays, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. But you’re watching this one for Smothers.
Current line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).
OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.
Current line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.
This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!
Current line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1
Early Saturday
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.
Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4
Cincinnati at Kansas (noon, TNT). I think Cincinnati might be good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri in the fourth quarter and beat three other opponents (including West Virginia) by a combined 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate — second rushing, third passing — and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per successful play. If they figure out how not to completely stink on third downs, the Bearcats could pull an upset.
Current line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2
Duke at Syracuse (noon, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU transfer — and new Syracuse starter — was just 3-for-8 against Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, but his 18-yard touchdown pass to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s pass defense has been surprisingly disastrous this season, but the Blue Devils can rush the passer and potentially stress Collins.
Current line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1
Louisville at Pitt (noon, ESPN2). Louisville has yet to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, but the Cardinals have a good pass defense and maybe the most explosive running back corps in FBS. Pitt, meanwhile, has an explosive passing game and maybe the best run defense Louisville will face. I think Louisville’s really good, but Pitt is pretty good at making things messy and thriving in the chaos.
Current line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7
Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will try to entice a known rock-fight lover into a wide-open battle. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses — Minnesota lost by 13 to a Cal team that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa into a track meet but lost 38-28. The loser of this one just hopes to get to 6-6.
Current line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2
No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 in the first and third quarters but has been outscored 23-10 in the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks ago but were outscored 34-10 from there. That’s probably a bad sign against a Tech team that seems to have some 60-minute staying power (the Jackets are at least +15 in every quarter).
Current line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We don’t yet know how good these teams are — USU has overachieved against SP+ projections by 15.0 points per game (10th nationally) while Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are likely quite a bit better than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but if Miles Davis and the USU run game get going, they could make this uncomfortable for a bit.
Current line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these teams have played games decided by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores pretty high on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it’s a huge game for both teams: Auburn is a projected favorite in only two games the rest of the season and needs to initiate a rally before Georgia and Missouri come to town next month. A&M, meanwhile, needs to get to 6-0 before a three-game SEC road trip. A&M gives up lots of big plays, but Auburn doesn’t make many.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its track meet days, scoring at least 41 points in every game and allowing at least 24 in three. The Vols are also very good. Mississippi State might be too. The Bulldogs have overachieved against SP+ projections by 9.5 points per game this season, and, well, if they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.
Current line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5
UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I can’t tell you to actually watch this game — I have a strong sense of morbid curiosity, but it only goes so far. Still, I bring this game up for one reason: UCLA has a 22% chance of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and this is the only game remaining in which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0
Saturday evening
Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The first Arizona-ISU game since 1968 is a big one: The teams are a combined 7-0, and the winner will be in the top tier of Big 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU attempt to pass — a semi-frequent occurrence because of a shaky run game — it will be strength vs. strength. Becht is quite efficient, but ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8
Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run game and an aggressive defense. App State is struggling offensively, but the Mountaineers’ defense ranks second nationally in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they score enough to make things interesting?
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9
Late Saturday
FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the only late game in FBS, and the Big Sky gets a national showcase. Idaho has lost a pair of FBS games by just six combined points and boasts a super fun dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can either throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per game) or run through you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Big Sky loves a good rock fight, but this one has track meet potential.
SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1
Smaller-school showcase
We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Idaho-Montana, here are three more games you should track.
FCS: No. 18 South Dakota at No. 1 North Dakota State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Before the season, I thought this might be the FCS game of the year. South Dakota stumbled early, however, and will now try to beat FCS’ best team with turnovers and random big plays. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, winning three games by a combined 138-17. The skill corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7
FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League looked fantastic in its season debut last week, and these teams — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a combined 105-7 — were as good as anyone. Both teams created loads of big-pass plays, and whoever prevents them better in this one (probably Harvard) moves to 2-0.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1
Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins both dramatic (overtime over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes a big test. The Cal Vulcans are allowing 4.8 yards per play and forcing loads of turnovers, and safety Alexie Sangster Jr. might be one of the best DBs in Division II.
SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0
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