‘We had no sense this was coming’: Inside the Pac-12’s four-team expansion
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Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff Writer
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould touched down at Los Angeles International Airport after a chaotic few days. For months, she had worked to help the league’s remaining two schools — Oregon State and Washington State — position themselves for the future, and things were finally falling into place.
When she arrived at baggage claim, Gould received confirmation via email that the Pac-12 board had unanimously approved official applications for conference membership from Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State, which had been submitted earlier in the day.
For the 35-year collegiate sports veteran and someone who had spent the bulk of the past 25 years affiliated with the Pac-12, it was hard to contain her excitement. Since stepping into the role in February, it was not always clear if the conference had a future, and now this ensured it would.
“We have a real opportunity to write a new story for the future and the new Pac-12,” Gould told ESPN the next day.
The Pac-12’s expansion efforts had been going on for weeks, but it wasn’t until early last week that all parties felt confident the moves were going to happen. By that point, the general framework of the new-look conference was agreed upon, and it became a matter of hammering out the details.
With university presidents and legal teams involved, the four Mountain West athletic directors remained in constant contact.
“Those conversations were being had multiple times a day, morning, noon and night,” Boise State athletic director Jeramiah Dickey said. “We were together in terms of jumping on calls and just talking through the what-if scenarios and potential opportunities that could exist and concerns and those type of things.”
Any concerns were outweighed by the potential of building something new. These schools had invested in their athletic department and football programs for years in preparation for this kind of opportunity, and while this wasn’t the same as joining the Pac-12 before its collapse, they strongly felt this move offered a better future than what they had in the Mountain West.
Those athletic directors’ counterparts around the conference were left in the dark, and when the news leaked late Wednesday night, several administrators at other Mountain West schools were caught off guard.
“There were some things after the fact that became more clear,” one Mountain West school administrator told ESPN. “Like certain people from those four schools not being present at meetings or generally unresponsive. It makes sense now, but we had no sense this was coming.”
For over a year, Oregon State and Washington State operated in the wilderness without a clear picture of what was ahead. During that time, they battled the departing schools — and absentee commissioner George Kliavkoff — in court for the Pac-12 assets and operational control. They chased television deals on their own, came to a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West in football, joined the West Coast Conference as affiliate members in other sports for two years and saw major leadership changes at the conference and institutional levels, with Gould replacing Kliavkoff and Anne McCoy replacing Pat Chun as the athletics director at WSU in March. Pac-12 staffing shrunk from about 190 at its peak to a skeleton crew of just over 30.
ESPN spoke with nearly two dozen sources familiar with the process to reveal how the Pac-12 emerged from that uncertainty and what comes next.
ON THE EVENING of July 10, at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas, the Pac-12 hosted “After Hours with the Beavs & Cougs.” The room was down the hall from where the United States men’s Olympic basketball team was headquartered in advance of the Paris games, and the hotel was also the designated media lodging for the Big 12 media days that wrapped up earlier in the day.
With only two schools, it didn’t make sense to hold a full-fledged media day. But with so many media members and others in the college athletics industry already in Vegas, the conference saw a chance to create some buzz with a more intimate gathering. The two head football coaches, OSU’s Trent Bray and WSU’s Jake Dickert, made the rounds. As did the two mascots, Benny and Butch. In the wake of the conference’s collapse the previous summer, though, there was also a somber tone.
After around 45 minutes of mingling, Gould addressed the room of about 100 people.
“This is supposed to be a fun night, and that’s why it looks different, it feels different,” she said. “We want you all to let your hair down and have a good time. … We have a bar in the back. Yes, we are drinking tonight during this event, and I would venture to say that if anyone has earned the right to drink, it’s the Pac-12.”
Always a great time After Dark 😏
More to come from tonight’s After Hours with the Beavs & Cougs! pic.twitter.com/JAc8Xd7W4g
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) July 11, 2024
The line killed, but no one left the Bellagio that night with a better understanding about what the future looked like. If anything, there was a growing sense in Las Vegas that OSU and WSU were being backed into the Mountain West and Gould’s role would be to spend the next two years tending to the dying embers of a conference with over a century of history.
If the Pac-12 were to survive, multiple industry sources presumed to ESPN at the time, it would likely have to come through a so-called reverse merger with the Mountain West. In that scenario, the Mountain West would have added OSU and WSU, continued to be operated by its current leadership — including commissioner Gloria Nevarez — and adopt the Pac-12 branding. That was never the preferred outcome of OSU and WSU, however, and over the past two months, Gould — as she was tasked to do when she was hired in February — worked to secure an outcome more favorable for the two schools.
On the same day the Pac-12 held its “After Hours” event, Nevarez kicked off her conference’s media day across town at the Circa Resort and Casino with a state of the conference address. She spoke confidently about the future of the conference and its strength and positioning.
“In this environment, our mantra is to be proactive and strategic to best position ourselves to navigate the future of college athletics,” Nevarez said. “Certainly transformation has hit [college athletics] pretty big in the last couple of years, and more is on its way, no doubt.”
To that end, Nevarez touted a presidential initiative intended to help the conference in the era of college realignment: a process known as “threatcasting.” The conference retained the help of Brian David Johnson, who Nevarez described as an “internationally renowned threatcaster.”
Johnson serves as the director of the Threatcasting Lab at Arizona State, which states it strives to “provide a wide range of organizations and institutions actionable models to not only comprehend these possible futures but to a means to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate and recover from them as well.”
“He worked with us to model all the different futures in and around the college athletic space,” Nevarez said. “He’s providing us signals and wavefinders so that we have early detection for the more dire outcomes.”
To industry veterans, though, the need to hire an expert to outline the biggest threat to the Mountain West was puzzling. Oregon State and Washington State had already spelled out in a lawsuit for control of the Pac-12 filed last year their desire to rebuild the conference, in part, with conference assets. No other scenario that could threaten the Mountain West was remotely more plausible.
The Mountain West, sources said, felt protected by its bylaws and a poaching fee included in a football scheduling agreement it signed with the Pac-12 in December. To leave the conference, a school is required to pay roughly $18 million with two years of notice and $36 million with a one-year notice. And if the Pac-12 accepted a Mountain West school as a new member, the Pac-12 would be required to pay a $10 million fee, with escalators of $500k more for each additional school. (The four-school fee for Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State is $43 million.)
When the conferences signed the scheduling agreement in early December that added six Mountain West opponents for OSU and WSU this season, the Mountain West was operating from a position of strength and required a $14 million payment from the Pac-12. OSU and WSU needed a quick solution to fill their 2024 football schedules, and they were still fighting an appeal from the 10 departing Pac-12 members of a superior court ruling that granted them control of the conference. Even if the departing schools’ appeal failed — which it later did — there wasn’t a great sense of what the remaining assets would be.
Even so, when the scheduling agreement was announced, it included an instructive comment from Oregon State athletics director Scott Barnes: “We are still focused on re-building the Pac-12.”
At the time, the idea that in less than a year the Pac-12 would be willing to pay roughly $115 million for one-third of the Mountain West seemed unrealistic. For Mountain West leadership, that remained the case in July.
“We have a mutual desire to extend that relationship [with the Pac-12] and we’re currently in discussions about year two,” Nevarez said in her address in Las Vegas. “But for the time being, we’re really excited about playing them.”
In an interview with ESPN the next day, Nevarez reaffirmed her belief that a deal to extend the scheduling agreement with the Pac-12 would get done. The contract included an Aug. 1 date to open a window in which the conferences could execute a second year, she said, adding she was hopeful they could come to an agreement before then.
“We just have to connect, sign some docs and go,” she said.
IN DECEMBER, WHEN the scheduling agreement was signed, Kliavkoff was still technically the commissioner of the Pac-12. He would remain in the role until February, but after Oregon and Washington walked away from a media rights deal he put together with Apple on Aug. 4 — ensuring the conference’s collapse — Kliavkoff was mostly checked out.
With Oregon and Washington headed to the Big Ten, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah quickly followed Colorado to the Big 12. A month later, California and Stanford completed a move to the ACC, leaving OSU and WSU behind.
“Not only did it go down to two, but it felt like we didn’t have leadership,” Barnes told ESPN last month. “So [former WSU athletic director] Pat Chun and myself felt like we were co-commissioners for several months until Teresa was hired. We just didn’t feel like we had the support.”
It went so far that Kliavkoff was named in the lawsuit the two schools filed against the Pac-12 for operational control.
“It felt like he paid more attention to the teams that were exiting and placating the teams exiting than the two that were remaining,” Barnes said. “Why? It’s beyond me. I don’t know, but we literally fought for ourselves and in certain instances [Kliavkoff] came to the table late, but right out of the gate, I feel very strongly that he was advocating behind the scenes or elsewhere for the teams that were leaving and that we were not seeing a leader that was stepping up and helping protect our future the way that I believe a capable leadership should.”
When Gould was elevated from deputy commissioner to replace Kliavkoff in February, Barnes felt they had someone who was genuinely invested in helping their cause. Unlike Kliavkoff, who had no background in college sports when he was named commissioner in July 2021, Gould had worked her way up the ranks over the past 35 years.
Before being hired as the conference’s deputy commissioner in 2018, Gould was the interim athletics director at UC Davis, spent 14 years in various roles in the athletic department at Cal and had another eight years prior at the West Coast Conference, where she was an associate commissioner.
“Yeah, it’s been refreshing,” Barnes said. “I feel like we know we have a partner that is looking out for our best interests and one that has the leadership capacity to execute on the things that we prioritize, and she has done a fabulous job and just her short few months that she’s been here.”
After Gould was hired, the schools’ goal of rebuilding the Pac-12 wasn’t the primary focus. Both schools felt they belonged in a power conference, with their peers of the past 100 years.
“When I got this job, I had a lot of people kind of in the background cheering me on going, ‘We can’t wait to see you rebuild the Pac-12,'” Gould told ESPN two weeks ago. “I’ve been in this league for 25 years. There’s certainly a lot of nostalgia around that idea, but that’s not what I was hired to do. What I was hired to do is figure out a future conference path for these two institutions that achieves the guiding principles we’ve agreed on.”
(The leadership structure changed again in March, when Chun left for rival Washington. He was replaced on an interim basis by McCoy, the school’s senior deputy AD, who was named to the job on a permanent basis in June.)
After OSU and WSU’s desire to join the Big 12 was firmly rebuffed, sources said, they gamed out possible scenarios that could come in the wake of various rulings in the four lawsuits related to Clemson and Florida State’s attempts to exit the ACC. None of those amounted to more than a gamble, and didn’t fit their timeline.
WHEN TALKS ABOUT extending the scheduling agreement started a few weeks after media day, little progress was made. The Mountain West overestimated how vulnerable the Pac-12 was from a negotiating position and asked for more than the $14 million it received last year, with the Pac-12 countering with less than half that.
“We just never could really seem to gain a lot of traction for year two so that everybody felt really good about it,” McCoy told ESPN at the Apple Cup on Saturday. “I think, and I can’t speak for the Mountain West, but I know from the Pac-12, in our perspective, it just seemed like we always were just so far apart in what we thought should happen.”
Unlike when the initial deal was signed with Kliavkoff in charge, OSU and WSU were now in control of the Pac-12 assets — they secured roughly $250 million when the departures were finalized — and had more time to make alternative scheduling plans for 2025. When it became clear the Sept. 1 deadline to extend the agreement would pass, the Pac-12 became more serious about attempting a true rebuild.
Much of the vetting of potential candidates and outreach was handled by Navigate, a private sports consulting firm, sources said. The Pac-12 would be willing to help fund the exit fees, the schools were told, which took away the primary risk factor. Had the four been required to come up with a combined $72 million on their own, it would have been much more difficult to justify the jump — especially without a firm understanding of what kind of media deal the new-look conference could command.
The schools also knew to expect the Mountain West to attempt to withhold media rights distributions for departing schools over the next two years — roughly $5 million per school, per year — as it did when BYU, TCU and Utah all left in 2011. It’s unclear what the total cost will be to the schools and Pac-12 to the Mountain West when the dust settles.
“There is a lot of negotiation that still needs to happen between the Pac-12 and the Mountain West and among the various schools on what that exit is going to look like, what scheduling alliances are going to look like and all sorts of different details,” Colorado State president Amy Parson said. “We have some time on that. We’re playing out the Mountain West all of next year and into the following. We will not have those details pinned down for some time.
“We are grateful to the Pac-12 that they’re investing in the four schools who are leaving the Mountain West in a way that makes us feel comfortable that we’re going to come out strong and ready to really compete at that level. But a lot of details [to get figured out] going forward.”
For years, the teams at the top of the Mountain West in terms of investment had grown tired of the bottom third’s inability to keep up, which contributed to the appeal of this model as opposed to adding OSU and WSU to the Mountain West, sources said.
Another theory that had been floating around since last year is the possibility that nine Mountain West schools could vote to dissolve the conference, freeing them up to move to the Pac-12 together without being required to pay exit fees. It was a possibility that received some informal discussion, a source said, but it never progressed to the point where anyone seriously considered pushing for it.
Once the Pac-12 fully committed to the rebuild, things moved quickly. Last Monday, there was a growing sentiment among stakeholders on both sides that it was likely to happen, and by Tuesday it was nearly a done deal. On Wednesday, the four schools all formally applied for membership, which required approval of the four-person Pac-12 board — made up of the presidents and athletics directors at OSU and WSU.
Nevarez caught wind of the possibility early last week, sources said, but the departing schools did not communicate their intention to leave before the deals were done.
With six schools, the Pac-12 still has to add at least two more by July 1, 2026, and there is not a firm timeline for when those additions will be made.
“I would like to move as swiftly as we can,” Barnes said. “Sort of the old John Wooden adage, ‘Be quick, but don’t hurry,’ in that regard. We don’t have any limitations on who we may visit with and we’ll move as quickly and thoroughly as we can. On the other side of that certainly is a chance to go out to market for a new media deal.”
The conference is expected to explore options in the American Athletic Conference — namely Tulane and Memphis — but it’s too early to say what the true appetite will be. Without a significant increase in their current media deal — AAC schools receive about $7 million annually — it becomes tougher to justify the added logistical hurdles of playing in a conference with a larger footprint, especially as a geographic outlier.
There is a good chance additional Mountain West schools could eventually find their way to the Pac-12. UNLV, for example, was a surprising omission this round for many industry sources given its relatively similar profile to the four departing schools, but the conference was steadfast in starting with this group.
“I can’t say I’m surprised [UNLV was not included] because I was pleased with the configuration, and actually the metrics and the metrics spoke to the decision-making process, and I and they were very, very objective in that sense,” San Diego State president Adela de la Torre said. “So in my mind, I think it was the best four that were selected.”
TWO DAYS AFTER the announcement, Washington State capped off the week with a victory in the Apple Cup against Washington at Lumen Field in Seattle. The Cougars’ goal-stand with 1:12 left to preserve the 24-19 win ignited a memorable celebration that started in the field and carried into the locker room and, for coach Jake Dickert, the postgame news conference.
To Dickert, the conference news was a welcome development, but what happens next, he said, is more important.
“This is the critical point for Washington State athletics right now. What are we going to do to invest in the future?” he said. “We let some new teams in, we have an opportunity to stay ahead of the curve to compete for championships if we want to invest, right?
“I don’t get my check from Washington State athletics. I get it from Washington State University. The university needs to invest in the athletics program and this football team every step of the way. That’s exactly what it’s going to take and you’re going to see more days just like this, but where we’re currently at is not enough so we’re putting in a big picture. If you can’t be proud of what the Cougs are doing right now, I can’t really help you.”
It’s a similar perspective at the conference level in that the developments from last week are important, but only foundational in nature.
“The outreach and the outpouring of people that are not only cheering us on saying, ‘This is awesome, we’re so excited about this,’ has been really significant,” Gould said. “And I think it just supports what I already knew, which is that people really care about the Pac-12 and about the brand and about it continuing long into the future.”
The 2025 MLB trade deadline is almost here, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.
The Seattle Mariners got things going just ahead of deadline day with a late-night deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Eugenio Suarez — will Zac Gallen be next to leave the Snakes? Relievers began flying off the board Wednesday, to the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. As the deadline approaches, who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
More: Top 50 trade candidates | Trade grades | Fantasy spin | Traded prospects
Jump to: Latest intel | Completed deals | Previous intel
Latest MLB trade deadline buzz
July 30
Angels switching to add mode: Small sample size can matter this time of year: The Los Angeles Angels had prepped for the possibility of trading away players (Taylor Ward, etc.), but after their win Tuesday night, they moved into add mode. They could still deal one or two players — notably closer Kenley Jansen — but the Angels want to make a push. — Buster Olney
A couple of Twins could be on the move soon: The market is picking up for Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran, with many throughout the industry expecting him to be moved at some point Wednesday.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been heavily involved. But the Seattle Mariners are still looking for ways to aggressively augment their roster (even after trading for lefty reliever Caleb Ferguson), either by adding another late-game option such as Duran, upgrading at third base or both. The New York Yankees also are expected to be in the mix, as are the Los Angeles Dodgers, though it seems as if the reigning World Series champions prefer Minnesota teammate Griffin Jax over Duran at this point.
The Twins theoretically could pair Duran with super-utility man Willi Castro, who also is expected to be moved Wednesday. — Alden Gonzalez
Where Astros, Twins Correa talks stand: While the Houston Astros have interest in Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa and there has been dialogue on a potential trade, the sides are far apart at the moment and no deal is close, sources tell ESPN. — Jeff Passan
Why Mets, Mariners are among teams to watch: As deadline day nears, Seattle and New York are two contenders with the potential to go big before 6 p.m. Thursday arrives. Read more: Buster Olney and Jeff Passan’s latest trade deadline intel
July 29
AL East leaders linked to Kwan, but pitching’s the priority: The first-place Toronto Blue Jays have recently been linked to Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan, who seems more likely to be traded in the wake of Emmanuel Clase‘s sudden absence — but Toronto’s priority remains pitching, sources with knowledge of the team’s thinking said.
The Blue Jays could use a top-end starter to complement a rotation fronted by Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, with controllable arms such as Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller making the most sense. But Toronto would also like to upgrade its bullpen — a unit that has lost Yimi Garcia, Paxton Schultz and Nick Sandlin to the injured list in recent weeks.
The Blue Jays entered this season with baseball’s 24th-ranked farm system, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. It would be difficult to envision them filling needs at the top of their rotation and in the back of their bullpen, while also adding an impact bat. The team might ultimately lean on the boost it should receive from Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Andres Gimenez and, it hopes, Anthony Santander returning from injury. — Alden Gonzalez
Robert trade talk heats up: NL East rivals are vying for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, with Chicago apparently resolute in the stance that it’ll either receive a trade return the equivalent of what Robert’s potential is or hang on to him beyond the deadline. The White Sox hold a $20 million option on Robert next season, and they have tons of payroll flexibility moving forward, meaning that there really is no financial stress in the decision; Chicago doesn’t have to dump the contract.
A lot of Robert’s career has been filled with injuries or underwhelming performance, but he has always been viewed as a superstar talent. Luisangel Acuna and Mark Vientos are among the names who have come up in conversations with the Mets, and the Phillies have a farm system loaded with pitching. The Padres have also inquired about Robert. — Buster Olney
Braves moving Ozuna? Possibly to Padres? With little more than 48 hours to go before the deadline, there is movement developing around Marcell Ozuna, who has the power to reject any trade proposal. At least one team has had internal conversations about trying to work out a deal for the slugger.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Padres emerge as a possible landing spot for Ozuna. San Diego has some of baseball’s worst DH production this year — wRC+ of 82, which ranks 28th — and presumably, the prospect-strapped Padres wouldn’t have to give up much to get him. — Olney
Cards looking to deal Helsley: For a lot of this season, rival executives weren’t sure if the Cardinals would trade players at the deadline, because their perception was the organization wanted to have as good of a season as possible in John Mozeliak’s last year running baseball operations. They weren’t sure if closer Ryan Helsley, a free-agent-to-be, would be dealt. As recently as a few days ago, it was still unclear to some teams whether Helsley would be moved.
But on Tuesday morning, multiple executives said the Cardinals are exchanging names and appear devoted to moving Helsley, though the offers for him might not be as robust as they had hoped. Helsley’s strikeout rate is down this season, he has given up a higher percentage of homers, and his ERA has climbed. “He’s not having the lights-out season we’ve seen from him before,” one evaluator said. The Tigers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are among the contenders looking for relief help. — Olney
Ouch! HBP has teams concerned about Suarez: At the very least, Eugenio Suarez getting hit by a pitch Monday night has concerned some rival evaluators who have talked about dealing for him. “If you pay a price like that, you’re going to want to feel good about what you’re getting,” one staffer said. And generally, hand/wrist injuries linger for hitters. — Olney
Reds eye Suarez, but there’s a backup plan: The Cincinnati Reds are among the teams that have been in contact with the Diamondbacks about Eugenio Suarez, but if Arizona finds a deal elsewhere, the Reds might pivot to another third baseman on the market — Gio Urshela of the A’s, Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Pirates, one of the Mets’ infielders (Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Mark Vientos), etc. — Olney
Want one of these aces? It’s gonna cost ya: There are a number of contenders looking for a frontline starting pitcher — Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, etc. — but the cost on two of the most prominent starters, the Twins’ Joe Ryan and the Padres’ Dylan Cease, remain extremely high in the minds of some evaluators. — Olney
Are the Rays adding or subtracting? Even they don’t know: The market is still stalled somewhat by teams deciding what they want to do. Tampa Bay is at the top of that list. The Rays have pitchers — both starters and relievers — that teams want. But being just on the outside of the wild-card race is causing some hesitation for the Rays. — Jesse Rogers
Then again … Other teams think Tampa Bay, which slumped through a brutal July, has joined the Diamondbacks as one of the primary subtractors in the market. Following the trade of Danny Jansen to Milwaukee, other names include starting pitcher Zack Littell (“He’s going to be traded,” one evaluator said), relief pitchers Garrett Cleavinger and Pete Fairbanks, and position players Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe. But one rival executive says they believe Diaz will have to be pried away from the Rays, given his $12 million option for next season. — Olney
Yankees seeking relief — and lots of it: The Yankees continue to look for relief help. They have resources deployed throughout the league in search of bullpen arms. If there is a closer or setup man available, New York is scouting him. Think Ryan Helsley and work down from there. — Rogers
Speaking of relievers: Other teams believe the Colorado Rockies could do very well in the current market if they dealt their best relievers — Seth Halvorsen, Jake Bird and Jimmy Herget. But some of those same teams view the current cost to make those deals as unreachable, and they wonder if the Rockies will bend as the deadline gets closer. — Olney
Rangers ready to rock at the deadline: The Texas Rangers have won nine of 11 and rival executives report that the Rangers are aggressively looking to upgrade their bullpen before the trade deadline. — Olney
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Mariners make big move in acquiring Suarez
The Diamondbacks sent Eugenio Suarez, among the most coveted players this deadline, to the Mariners for prospects, sources tell ESPN.
Reds get RHP Zack Littell in three-way trade
In a deal that swaps prospects among the Reds, Dodgers and Rays, the Reds get a new starter in Littell, sources tell ESPN.
The Houston Astros are acquiring infielder Ramón Urías from the Baltimore Orioles, sources tell ESPN.
Cubs acquire Soroka for rotation
The Chicago Cubs have acquired pitcher Michael Soroka from the Washington Nationals, sources tell ESPN.
Mets jump into reliever market, acquire Helsley
The New York Mets are finalizing a deal to acquire closer Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals for shortstop Jesus Baez and right-handers Nate Dohm and Frank Elissalt, sources tell ESPN.
Phillies get Duran in deadline’s biggest deal yet
The Philadelphia Phillies have agreed to a deal to acquire closer Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins for right-hander Mick Abel and catcher Eduardo Tait, sources tell ESPN.
The Seattle Mariners have acquired left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Pittsburgh Pirates, sources tell ESPN.
Mets bolster bullpen in deal with Giants
The New York Mets have acquired right-handed reliever Tyler Rogers from the San Francisco Giants, a source confirms to ESPN.
The Cincinnati Reds have acquired third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for reliever Taylor Rogers and prospect Sammy Stafura, sources tell ESPN.
The Atlanta Braves acquired RHP Tyler Kinley from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for minor league RHP Austin Smith.
Angels and Nationals swap pitchers
The Los Angeles Angels are acquiring relievers Luis Garcia and Andrew Chafin in a trade with the Washington Nationals, with left-hander Jake Eder one player heading back to the Nationals in the deal, sources tell ESPN.
Yankees add outfielder in deal with White Sox
The New York Yankees have acquired outfielder Austin Slater in a trade with the Chicago White Sox, sources tell ESPN.
Blue Jays get bullpen boost in deal with Orioles
The Toronto Blue Jays are acquiring right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez from the Baltimore Orioles for right-handed pitching prospect Juaron Watts-Brown, a source tells ESPN.
Rays deal catcher to Brewers, get one from Marlins
The Milwaukee Brewers acquired catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are also acquired catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins.
The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez.
Braves add veteran rotation arm
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash.
Yankees make another deal for infield depth
The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers.
Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs
The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann.
Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies
The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies.
Mets get bullpen help from O’s
The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles.
Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor
The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi.
Previous deadline buzz
July 28 updates
Mets in need of relievers: As we close in on the deadline, the Mets are looking to ideally add two relievers — a center fielder, and possibly an additional hitter to slot in a designated hitter, in the event that their current regular DH Mark Vientos is one of the players they need to include in a deal to address their needs.
White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. is their top target for the center-field need, with Orioles CF Cedric Mullins as the second option, as Jesse Rogers has noted below. I’m told the White Sox have focused on Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Vientos and Luisangel Acuna in those Robert talks, with the last two being the most realistic options. — Kiley McDaniel
Bader could be a hot commodity: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, sources told ESPN. Bader is a plus defender batting .255 with 12 home runs and a .777 OPS in 93 games this season. His 2.0 fWAR ranks 30th in the majors among outfielders. He would effectively be a rental for a contender; he signed a one-year deal with $6.25 million guaranteed plus up to $2 million in bonuses that includes a mutual option for 2026. He is likely to opt for free agency to secure a better contract before his age-32 season.
Bader has played for both New York clubs; with the Yankees in 2022 and 2023 and with the Mets last season. The Yankees seek a right-handed-hitting outfielder with Aaron Judge‘s flexor strain throwing a wrench into their season. The Mets could use an upgrade in center field. The Dodgers, meanwhile, could use Bader in center field, move Andy Pages to left field and struggling Michael Conforto (.194 batting average and .650 OPS) to the bench. — Jorge Castillo
Yankees in on Bader, Slater? The Yankees continue to work on adding bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, and they have talked with other teams about right-handed-hitting outfielders. Former Yankee Harrison Bader is among those discussed, as well as White Sox outfielder Austin Slater. The Yankees’ bullpen has been the weakest part of the team this year, and they will be among the contenders likely to add relief before the deadline. — Olney
Blue Jays — like most teams — need bullpen help: Toronto is in an increasingly commanding position in the AL East, and one of the advantages the Blue Jays have is the flexibility of their position player group. They have a handful of players who can change spots according to the day-to-day needs of manager John Schneider. Like so many contending teams, the Jays are working to add bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, from the enormous pool of available relievers. — Olney
Yankees eyeing a few Bucs: The Yankees’ focus is now on adding pitchers — both a starter and multiple relievers — after upgrading their position player group with the additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario over the weekend.
As Kiley McDaniel notes below, Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a possible option if the Yankees are willing to pay a steep price.
New York has also shown interest in the Pirates’ available arms, a source told ESPN. Right-handed starter Mitch Keller, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana are among the pitchers Pittsburgh could move before Thursday’s deadline.
Landing Keller, a quality midrotation starter, would also require a hefty haul since the veteran is under contract over the next three seasons for about $54.5 million. So would adding Bednar, who is one of the top relievers available and under team control through next season. — Castillo
July 27 updates
Mets are scouring CF market — and Robert could play a big part: The New York Mets are keeping an eye on centerfielders Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox.
Robert returned to the lineup on Sunday as the designated hitter after missing the previous two games due to groin tightness. Before getting hurt, he was easily having the best month he has had over the past two seasons, hitting .351 with a .442 OBP in July. The White Sox have been waiting for an increase in prospect capital to move forward on a deal. It’s possible they finally get it this week; but they could always pick up the option in his contract this offseason and do this all over again next year. Robert’s production this month has teams intrigued. — Jesse Rogers
Not all White Sox players are on the table: The Chicago White Sox are holding out for a decent prospect return for starter Adrian Houser, who is likely to get moved by the deadline — unless teams just don’t believe in his 2.10 ERA over 11 starts. The Sox would love a 10th-to-20th-ranked prospect from an opposing organization’s farm system for him; though, teams are likely to lean toward the lower end of that instead of what Chicago prefers, closer to the higher end. The New York Yankees were among teams scouting Houser this weekend. He pitched another good one against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Meanwhile, depth outfielder Mike Tauchman isn’t likely to get traded. While Chicago still has another year of team control over him, the coaching staff has raved about his influence within its young clubhouse. He would be more valuable on the open market if he could play center field, but leg issues are a concern, and the White Sox aren’t likely to get much in prospect return for him. — Rogers
The market for one Marlins starter could be heating up: Teams unwilling or unable to meet the demands for Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore, two controllable starters who are more likely to stay put than move at this point, could easily pivot to Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. The 27-year-old is controllable through the 2028 season and has been on a really good run, posting a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.
Another Marlins pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, has been the big name bandied about on the trade front all year, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be moved. Alcantara has struggled in his initial return from Tommy John surgery and is controllable for an additional two years. And the Marlins — surging of late, with 20 wins in their past 28 games — can easily justify holding on to him if they are not blown away by offers. At this point, Cabrera seems more likely to be traded. — Alden Gonzalez
Gore’s market is stalled for now: Jesse Rogers noted below (July 24 update) that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add a starting pitcher with years of control and would consider including a young position player, though hopefully not a top prospect, to make that happen. MacKenzie Gore is one of those targets, and the key player the Washington Nationals are rumored to want in a return package is Matt Shaw, who isn’t yet on the table and graduated from prospect status this season with 71 MLB games.
The New York Yankees are also shopping for a starting pitcher and have some young position players of interest to rivals, but they aren’t keen on including either of their top prospects, George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones. If they change that stance, they could be a dark horse fit with the Nats on Gore. — McDaniel
Boston should target Tampa Bay’s Diaz: The Tampa Bay Rays‘ struggles over the past month have really surprised other teams — and the Rays’ staffers, too — and now they could shift to become dealers at the deadline. Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox. He’s making $10 million this year (the Red Sox would be on the hook for about a third of that), and he has a very attractive $12 million option for 2026. — Olney
Could Ozuna be one of the Braves on the move? The Atlanta Braves might be the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year, and now they are fully prepared to execute a minor sell-off before the deadline, moving relievers Raisel Iglesias (who is making $16 million this year) and Pierce Johnson ($7 million, with a $7 million option for 2026) and maybe others. Marcell Ozuna, benched recently when manager Brian Snitker decided to devote the DH spot to catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin, has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade proposal, which means the Braves are unlikely to engage any team in trade talks about Ozuna. If another team calls the Braves, however, to ask about his availability, then they will ask Ozuna if he would accept a move. The market for DHs is extremely limited, and Atlanta would presumably have to eat at least some of the $5 million or so owed to the slugger for the rest of this season. — Olney
Look for Texas to now be aggressive at the deadline: If you were to line up all the MLB president of baseball operations and general managers on a spectrum from most competitive to least, the peers of Rangers GM Chris Young would probably pick him to be the most competitive — which is why other teams assume that with Texas surging in the standings of late, the Rangers will be adding before the deadline. A few weeks ago, the assumption among those other clubs was that the Rangers would become dealers and perhaps move Adolis Garcia and others. But they have won eight of nine since the All-Star break and start Sunday just a half-game out of the third wild-card position. And remember, in 2023, Texas limped into the postseason and wound up winning the World Series. — Olney
Can Mets find an ace at deadline? The market has been very thin in teams offloading, but according to sources, the Mets continue to look around to see whether there’s a match for a starting pitcher capable of taking the ball for a Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks could be that guy, or maybe it’s Seth Lugo of the Royals, or the Padres’ Dylan Cease. Perhaps it’s one of the two big-time starters who will be under team control beyond this season, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara or the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Mets’ rotation was exceptional early in the year, before injuries and natural regression began to take a toll, and the team could use a boost in the front end of this group as they fight the Phillies for NL East supremacy. — Olney
Which way will deadline bubble teams go? The staredown continues as deadline week begins, with perhaps as many as a half-dozen teams waiting to declare their status. “This weekend is big for a lot of teams,” said one evaluator.
The Rays, who appeared to be gathering momentum a month ago, are now just a game over .500, and given the organization’s longstanding focus on maximizing the value of their players, some rival evaluators think they could now be considering dealing some pieces away.
The St. Louis Cardinals are two games over .500, with the industry waiting to see whether they will deal closer Ryan Helsley. The expectation is that they will, given the tough NL playoff landscape. The Tigers could be interested, maybe the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.
The Los Angeles Angels are now five games under .500, and the presumption is that they will eventually move some players before the deadline, but the Angels don’t always operate in the way teams typically do. Taylor Ward has drawn interest from other organizations. — Olney
July 25 updates
Will the Royals trade Lugo — or extend him? Seth Lugo is an intriguing name in the trade market, but rival evaluators don’t sense the Royals are especially motivated to make a deal. Kansas City could also use this moment to explore an extension with Lugo, to keep their deep well of starting pitching intact. — Buster Olney
Angels’ deadline plans coming into focus: Any confusion about whether the Angels will add or subtract ahead of the trade deadline has seemingly cleared up in recent days, with a four-game losing streak that has them five games under .500.
The Angels are telling teams their pending free agents are available, sources with knowledge of the situation said. That includes third baseman Yoan Moncada, utility infielder Luis Rengifo, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen. Left fielder Taylor Ward, controllable through 2026, can also be had with the right deal.
The Angels famously never rebuild under owner Arte Moreno and are prone to adding even in times when they seem like long shots to contend — most notably in 2023, when they not only held on to Shohei Ohtani but also traded for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez before collapsing in August.
At this time last year, they tried to move the likes of Anderson and Rengifo but did not believe they would have received enough back to justify holding on to them through the following season. And so it is worth noting: Even if the Angels do decide to punt on 2025, their goal would be to contend again next season.
Any moves they make would probably be geared toward that. By trading away rentals, the Angels will try to use the trade deadline to add accomplished players who can help the team next year. — Alden Gonzalez
What the Astros might be looking for: The Astros’ best fit in a hitter is someone who could play second base or left field, and they can move Jose Altuve accordingly. Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 94.5% chance to reach the postseason; they lead the Mariners by five games in the AL West. — Buster Olney
How Arizona could shape the trade deadline: The Diamondbacks informed other teams in the past that they would “probably” be dealing away players, but even after trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, it’s unclear just how far Arizona will go. If the D-Backs decided to go all-in on trading veterans, they could reshape their organization significantly, by moving free-agents-to-be Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and, of course, Eugenio Suarez.
The perception of other front offices is that Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick does not want to completely offload, especially with the Dodgers drifting back toward the pack in the NL West — and as of Thursday night, Suarez wasn’t even officially on the market.
The Diamondbacks, who reached the World Series in 2023 after winning just 84 games during the regular season, won their first three games after the All-Star break, but have subsequently lost three in a row. What some rival evaluators believe is that if the D-Backs keep dealing, it’ll be because of a nudge from the front office. Arizona has been extensively scouting other organizations in preparation. — Buster Olney
White Sox starter drawing interest from contenders: About a half-dozen or more scouts will be in attendance at Rate Field on Friday night when Adrian Houser takes the mound for the White Sox. He has compiled a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts for Chicago after being picked up midseason. Teams don’t believe they’ll have to give up a lot to acquire him, and he could make for a good back-end starter or depth piece for a contender. The White Sox are likely to move him at his peak, and Friday could be the final look for those who are interested. — Jesse Rogers
July 24 updates
Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers
July 23 updates
Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.
The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo
A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney
How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers
Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.
The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez
July 22 updates
An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney
Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney
Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney
Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers
How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.
Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney
What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.
But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.
It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez
Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers
Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.
But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney
Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers
Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.
The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez
Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s MLB trade season!
From the early deals to get things started to the last-minute rush of deadline day activity on Thursday, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down the details for every trade as they go down.
Follow along as ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate and grade each move, with the most recent grades at the top. This story will continue to be updated, so be sure to return for the freshest deadline analysis.
Phillies get:
RHP Jhoan Duran
Twins get:
C Eduardo Tait
RHP Mick Abel
Phillies grade: A
Is this classic David Dombrowski, or what? The Philadelphia Phillies, despite owning one of baseball’s best overall records, have a saves leader in Jordan Romano who has just eight with a 6.81 ERA. They’ve mixed and matched in high-leverage spots, not just save situations, with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering emerging as the most reliable performers. Take those two, slot them in behind Duran, and how much prettier does that postseason picture look?
Duran might end up as the most valuable reliever dealt at the deadline, trumping the New York Mets‘ deal earlier in the day for Tyler Rogers. Perhaps noticing this, the Mets almost immediately responded by also acquiring Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals. Even if the “most valuable traded reliever” title is up for debate, Duran will definitely be in the mix.
He’s arguably a better fit for Philadelphia than Helsley would’ve been, anyway, because Duran makes about half the money in 2025 and the Phillies are paying the maximum penalty in luxury tax (110% on payroll added from here) that the CBA allows. Duran also has three more years of team control (arbitration seasons) remaining after 2025. The Phillies have a new closer and it’s not just for the stretch run of this season.
In dealing Tait and Abel, president of baseball operations Dombrowski dealt two of his top-10 prospects (Nos. 4 and 5) but he didn’t deal Andrew Painter, whose name reportedly kept popping up on the Minnesota Twins‘ wish list. But dealing prospects is what Dombrowski does — along with winning pennants.
For the Phillies, it’s all about August, September and beyond. Their chances to navigate those crucial months just increased considerably.
Twins grade: B
Abel and Tait are excellent prospects that make the Twins’ system deeper and raise its ceiling. Abel, 23, has already gotten his feet wet at the big league level and should help the Twins rotation from the outset. He’s a classic long (6-foot-5), hard-throwing righty with good extension who, so far, has been hit pretty hard on contact — but he’s just getting started.
Tait has generally been the higher ranked of the two and is one of the 10 best catching prospects in the game. He’s also still a month shy of his 19th birthday, so unless the Twins put him on the really fast track, he’ll be climbing the ranks for a bit. His bat is exciting, with a good base of raw power and a better-than-average hit tool. Most analysts like his arm behind the plate but suggest he needs to learn the finer points of catching to stick at that crucial spot.
It’s a good haul, and the value exchange is reasonable for both sides. But given the clamor that had to exist for a player with Duran’s stuff, closing experience and service-time level, it feels like the Twins could have come out with more of a decided edge on the value standpoint. If they were going to trade Duran, they needed to be truly wowed and I’m not convinced this trade does that. Otherwise, I’d just as soon retain one of the game’s best relievers.
Clearly, the Twins’ evaluators buy into the considerable upside of Tait and the ongoing progress of Abel. If they’re right about that, this “B” can become an “A” easily enough. — Doolittle
Mets get:
RHP Tyler Rogers
Giants get:
OF Drew Gilbert
RHP Jose Butto
RHP Blade Tidwell
Mets grade: C+
Let’s get the important part out of the way first: Of the nine other identical twin combos in MLB history, none of the others was traded on the same day. So, the Rogers twins — who look so much alike as long as they aren’t on the mound — are the first, after Taylor was dealt from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh earlier in the day. That aspect of the grade gets an A+.
The rest of it I’m not so sure about, though Tyler Rogers is without a doubt a significant upgrade for the Mets’ bullpen, giving them a really nice trio at the back of the bullpen with closer Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett. Deepening the high-leverage contingent was a must-do item for David Stearns at this deadline, so that box has been checked, though more would be nice.
All three in that trio are righties, but they have very different arm slots and pitch mixes, so they should complement each other well. In terms of performance, Rogers has been on point this season with a 1.80 ERA over 50 innings, with 38 whiffs and just four walks. On the other hand, Rogers is in a walk year, and that’s an awful lot of controllable talent to give up for two months and a postseason of a short reliever.
On the other other hand, if Rogers ends up pitching in late-October spots with a high championship-leverage index — and succeeds — Mets fans won’t sweat whatever the three young players headed for San Francisco end up doing. In the meantime, Stearns has freed up room on New York’s 40-man roster that he might need over the next 24 or so hours.
Giants grade: A-
The Giants aren’t out of the race, and while it’s easy to see dealing a key reliever as an act of white flag waving, the actuarial aspect of this deal was simply too good for Buster Posey to pass up. San Francisco’s playoff odds were at 12% in my system through Tuesday night, and while that’s not impossible, Posey is doing the right thing by (presumably) playing both sides of the fence. The Giants’ bullpen has been fantastic this season and is weakened by the loss of Rogers, but there’s still enough there to get back into the playoff chase if San Francisco snaps out of its extended slump.
Gilbert, the Mets’ No. 8 prospect, is the headliner: a good-defending outfielder with a strong enough arm that he can play anywhere in the grass. His offensive profile lacks a statistical standout, and as he will turn 25 in September, the Giants are likely going to push him along as quickly as they can.
Tidwell has good stuff, with a slider as his strong point, but his command has wavered during this development. It’s been better this year, and he made his first four big league appearances earlier this season. He has been a starter, but his fastball-slider combo gives him the flexibility to fill a key bullpen role if that’s the direction the Giants want to go.
Butto has the most big league experience of the three. He had been a combo-type hurler in the majors for the Mets until working exclusively in a medium-leverage role this season. He’ll likely fill Rogers’ role in the San Francisco bullpen for now, but with multiple controllable seasons left on his service-time clock, there’s a lot the Giants can do with him.
Rogers was terrific, but this haul was too good for Posey to refuse. — Doolittle
Yankees get:
OF Austin Slater
White Sox get:
RHP Gage Ziehl
Yankees grade: C+
The Yankees need outfield help. Slater is an outfielder, a veteran, with an easy-to-peg if limited set of strengths. The offense is short right now with Aaron Judge on the injured list, and while Slater is a Lilliputian to Judge’s Gulliver, he plays a decent corner outfield and hits lefty pitchers at an above-average rate, owning a .798 career OPS against southpaws and .859 this season. The recent pickup of Amed Rosario now looks like one that gives fellow recent pickup Ryan McMahon a platoon partner at third base, so Slater should have a steady role on the grass until Judge returns, and perhaps after as a platoon partner for Trent Grisham, with Judge playing some in center.
Eventually, we’ll find out whether losing Ziehl was too steep of a price to pay for adding a role player for two months and the postseason, but the Yankees are putting together a deep and balanced bench — provided their cornerstone players are healthy when October arrives. At the very least, Slater’s addition reduces the chances of the Yankees asking Giancarlo Stanton to figure out where his outfield glove has been stored.
White Sox grade: B
Ziehl hails from upstate New York, not far from the southern shore of Lake Ontario, and if he emerges as a big league pitcher, it looks as if he’ll do so just off the western shore of Lake Michigan now that he’s Chris Getz’s latest prospect acquisition for Chicago.
According to the prospect gurus, Ziehl relies on decent velocity with plus command and a plus sweeper-style slider as the foundation of his arsenal. A standout on the excellent Miami Hurricanes’ staff, Ziehl prospered in high-level competition as a collegian. This year marks his first taste of professional game action, and the results have been just so-so.
But the White Sox had very little use for Slater’s services except for this precise purpose: to add depth to the Chicago farm system via a trade deadline deal. Given Slater’s lack of everyday-player utility, this seems like a solid return. — Doolittle
Reds get:
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
Pirates get:
SS Sammy Stafura
LHP Taylor Rogers
Reds grade: C-
The Reds have been one of the 57 teams mentioned as having interest in one-time Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who certainly would have been a more direct response to the Reds’ acute need for a middle-of-the-order bat. Hayes, whose sub-.300 slugging percentage stirs fond memories of 1970s-era shortstops, is not that.
He is, however, a Platinum Glove-level defender at the hot corner and, as they say, a run saved is as good as a run scored. Cincinnati has been playing Noelvi Marte at third base recently, and while Marte is having his best season at the plate, his defensive marks have been consistently below average and he has the positional versatility to rove around the field, as do most of the Reds’ other corner players.
Hayes doesn’t move around the field, but you don’t want him to. His value is as a defensive vacuum on the left side of the infield, one who will team with Elly De La Cruz to form one of the more dynamic infield duos around. The four years and $30 million Hayes has left on the extension he signed early in his career should be team-friendly, but he’s got to hit more than he has the past two campaigns amid ongoing back issues. For what it’s worth, Great American Ballpark is the only park other than PNC in which he’s hit more than two career homers. If the bat doesn’t pick up though, the Reds have likely acquired a long-term underwater contract.
Getting the Pirates to take on the remainder of Rogers’ expiring deal (the prorated remainder of his $12 million salary) likely sweetened the prospect return for Pittsburgh, while possibly freeing up the Reds’ payroll for further pursuits of that needed power bat.
Pirates grade: B
It sure seemed like the Pirates had developed their long-term third baseman when Hayes arrived and signed that extension, but the collapse of his bat ended that notion. Some teams might be able to carry a great-defending, poor-hitting corner player, but the Pirates need offense wherever they can get it. Getting out of their commitment to Hayes at least gives them a chance to find a more productive solution at his position.
Stafura, who just missed Cincinnati’s top 10 in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent prospect rankings could well be that guy. Or he might be the Pirates’ shortstop of the future, giving Pittsburgh the option of deploying elite prospect Konnor Griffin in center field.
Stafura is an athletic infielder with plus speed and an above-average defensive profile, good enough to stick at short according to most prospect analysts. His offensive profile is a little murky. He has exceptional plate discipline, but the question is whether he’ll make enough consistent contact in the majors to maintain the high OBPs he’s posted as a professional. Either way, he deepens Pittsburgh’s prospect base. — Doolittle
Brewers get:
C Danny Jansen (from Rays)
Rays get:
C Nick Fortes (from Marlins)
IF Jadher Areinamo (from Brewers)
Marlins get:
OF Matthew Etzel (from Rays)
Brewers grade: B
This might seem like a bizarre trade for the Brewers because they already have a solid catcher in William Contreras, but it looks like they are trying to cover all of their bases as they look toward a potential deep run in October. A question that a playoff-caliber team should consider: What happens if our starting catcher gets injured?
That’s pertinent for the Brewers because Contreras has played through a broken finger on his glove hand that he suffered in early May. That perhaps explains his lower offensive production this year, and he has struggled since the beginning of June, hitting just .229 with one home run in 44 games.
Jansen provides an upgrade over Eric Haase in the Brewers’ backup slot and could take some playing time from Contreras, who has started 87 of the Brewers’ 105 games. Jansen is a low-average hitter who can occasionally homer, hitting .204/.314/.389 with 11 home runs. It’s not a major move on paper, but it’s a smart one from one of the best front offices in the game.
Rays grade: C+
The Rays had big problems during the past couple of seasons with their catcher production, which led them to sign Jansen in the offseason to a one-year deal worth $8 million with a $12 million mutual option. The change from Jansen to Fortes makes sense from the Rays’ perspective: They were unlikely to pick up their half of that 2026 option, so with Fortes under team control through 2028, they at least have a semi-solution for the foreseeable future.
The only issue is that Fortes struggles at the plate, with a career line of .225/.277/.344, and he’s even worse if you look at his numbers since 2023. He is a good defensive catcher, ranking high in Statcast’s framing runs saved despite his limited playing time, so he at least provides a replacement.
Areinamo, who was traded for Jansen, was Milwaukee’s No. 24 prospect, via MLB.com. He’s a 21-year-old who has played all three infield positions at High-A, hitting .297/.355/.463 with 11 home runs. He’s undersized at 5-foot-8 with a strange bat whip as the pitcher delivers the pitch, but he has generated excellent contact rates and has performed in the low minors. He looks like a good sleeper prospect — and we know the Rays have thrived on acquiring those kinds of players (although they’ve made some mistakes as well, like trading Cristopher Sanchez to the Phillies).
Marlins grade: C
The Marlins deal from an organizational strength in trading Fortes. Rookies Agustin Ramirez and Liam Hicks have emerged as a solid backstop duo (with Ramirez getting a lot of DH time), plus they also have Joe Mack, one of their top prospects, in Triple-A.
Etzel was the Rays’ No. 28 prospect, via MLB.com, but the 23-year-old lefty-hitting outfielder has struggled in Double-A, hitting .230/.360/.347 with five home runs in 196 at-bats. He has been out since June 20 because of an injury. He was originally acquired last season from the Baltimore Orioles in the Zach Eflin trade. Etzel has plus speed and takes some walks, but he has played only the corner outfield in Double-A, so he looks like a tweener — not enough power for a corner position, not enough defense for center.
More proof that poor-hitting catchers have limited trade value, even if they’re excellent defensive catchers. — Schoenfield
Tigers get:
RHP Chris Paddack
RHP Randy Dobnak
Twins get:
C Enrique Jimenez
Tigers grade: D
The Detroit Tigers have been stumbling of late, going 2-12 since July 9 (and 21-25 since June 3 if you want to go back a bit further) — and it hasn’t been just a little stumble. They’ve been outscored 93-to-43 in this 14-game stretch, with the starting rotation posting a 5.59 ERA — and that’s including Tarik Skubal‘s numbers (although he did have one mediocre start in there).
The bullpen has been even worse, with a 7.93 ERA in this stretch and 5.03 since the beginning of June. Though it makes sense for the Tigers to acquire some pitching help, Paddack hardly projects as anything more than someone who might chew up a few extra innings beyond what they’ve been getting from their current back-end starters. He’s 3-9 with a 4.95 ERA for the Minnesota Twins, including a 5.40 ERA on the road, where his home run rate has spiked.
Paddack does throw strikes and has pitched at least five innings in 17 of 21 starts this season, but batters are hitting .266 with a .753 OPS off him. He’s a below-average starter, but probably a minor upgrade over Keider Montero, who has allowed 10 runs in 8⅓ innings over his past two starts and was sent down to the minors, or rookie Troy Melton, who made his first career start last week and got hammered by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Meanwhile, Dobnak is just a salary dump for the Twins — he wasn’t even on their 40-man roster and has a 7.12 ERA in Triple-A.
This is just one move for the Tigers. It’s not game changer. Look for them to add some bullpen help over the next few days.
Twins grade: C
Though this mostly seems like the Twins dumping a couple of million in salary between Paddack and Dobnak — don’t ever change, Twins — Jimenez is at least a real prospect, a 19-year-old catcher hitting .250/.339/.440 in the Florida Complex League. He was Detroit’s top international signing in 2023, out of Venezuela, and was ranked No. 14 on MLB.com’s prospect list for the Tigers and No. 17 on Baseball America’s. Jimenez is a switch-hitter, which is always fun to see from a catcher, but it’s also his second year in the FCL and his numbers have shown just minor improvement from 2024. Check back in three years. — Schoenfield
Yankees get:
3B Ryan McMahon
Rockies get:
LHP Griffin Herring
RHP Josh Grosz
Yankees grade: B
For Yankees fans who wanted Eugenio Suarez to fill the hole at third base, this looks like a big letdown considering McMahon is hitting .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs — compared to Suarez’s 36 — and ranking second in the majors in strikeouts while playing half of his games at Coors Field. Away from Colorado, he has hit just .189 with five home runs. Consider the positives, however:
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He has signed through 2027, so he is a solution at third base for the next two years as well (he’ll make $16 million each of the next two seasons).
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He is an excellent defender, ranking in the 91st percentile in Statcast’s outs above average.
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He ranks in the 86th percentile in walk rate.
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He ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 87th percentile in hard-hit rate.
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He might get the “leaving Coors Field” boost, where his road numbers adjust to playing his home games in a more normal environment.
That last one is important. The Yankees have experience with this: DJ LeMahieu hit .327 and .364 in his first two seasons with the Yankees after leaving the Rockies. Yes, the strikeouts are the big concern here with McMahon, and while he is not having his best season, at the minimum, he upgrades the defense and gives the Yankees a little more power. I suspect McMahon won’t hit .189 with the Yankees and could prove to be a sneaky good addition.
Rockies grade: C
While McMahon’s name had been on the rumor mill, it’s still a mild surprise the Rockies actually traded him. First, they rarely make trades of any sort, especially significant ones, and they especially rarely trade their homegrown players such as McMahon. So, at least good for them for doing something that probably makes sense.
Did they get much in return? Herring was a sixth-round pick last year from LSU, where he pitched in relief. The Yankees turned him into a starter, and Herring has mowed through two levels of Single-A with a 1.71 ERA and 10.3 K’s per nine. Primarily a fastball/sweeper guy at LSU, his changeup has proven a big weapon as right-handed batters are hitting just .159 against him.
A college pitcher from a high-profile program such as LSU dominating the low minors usually doesn’t tell us much, except in this case, Herring’s lack of experience and successful transition to a bigger workload is a huge positive. Herring didn’t crack Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Yankees prospects in his July update but did make MLB.com’s list at No. 8.
Grosz has spent the entire 2025 season at high A, posting a 4.14 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 85 innings and holding batters to a .211 average. He has a high-spin fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but the secondary stuff needs improvement, and the command is a tick below average (35 walks).
The biggest issue is these are two pitchers who haven’t performed above Single-A and don’t necessarily have elite stuff. The stat lines look good, but the next step to Double-A will be a big test to see how Herring’s fastball plays against better competition and whether Grosz can improve his command. — Schoenfield
Mets get:
LHP Gregory Soto
Orioles get:
RHP Wellington Aracena, RHP Cameron Foster
Mets grade: C+
Through the end of May, the Mets’ bullpen ranked second in the majors with a 2.78 ERA. Since June 1, however, the Mets rank 27th with a 5.02 ERA, so Soto is a logical addition — and probably won’t be the last reliever the Mets acquire. Part of the problem is Mets’ starters haven’t pitched deep into games and manager Carlos Mendoza ran his top relievers except closer Edwin Diaz into the ground.
The Mets have also been without a reliable lefty with offseason signing A.J. Minter out for the year. They did just activate Brooks Raley, but Soto gives them another lefty option, no doubt thinking ahead to potential playoff matchups against the Phillies (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber), Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman) or Cubs (Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong). They’re going to need more than one lefty reliever.
Is Soto a good option though? He still has premium stuff with a 97 mph fastball and wipeout slider, and left-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him in 2025 (although two of the eight hits have been home runs). As always, however, throwing strikes is often an issue (4.5 walks per nine), and he has a large platoon split (right-handed batters have a .371 OBP against him). Soto is a good left-on-left on matchup, but his control means he isn’t always the most trustworthy, and the Orioles weren’t using him in a lot of high-leverage situations of late.
Orioles grade: B-
Let the exodus begin. With as many as 11 more potential free agents, the Orioles are going to be busy over the next week. A lot of those trades will look like this one: a couple of second-tier type prospects. Aracena (No. 19 on MLB.com’s Mets list, No. 28 on Baseball America) is a 6-foot-3, 20-year-old right-hander with a 2.38 ERA in low-A, including 84 strikeouts in 64 innings, featuring a fastball in the upper 90s that has topped out at 101. That’s the good news. The “Why did the Mets trade him?” news is that he has walked 35 batters. He has a cutter and a slider, but the profile here suggests he might end up as a reliever. Still, a decent return for a non-elite reliever such as Soto.
Foster is a 26-year-old reliever who crushed Double-A in repeating the level this season (1.01 ERA), although he struggled in his first two outings after a recent promotion to Triple-A (seven runs in 3.2 innings). Given all the trades the Orioles will make, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pop up in the big league bullpen at some point this season. — Schoenfield
Mariners get:
1B Josh Naylor
Diamondbacks get:
LHP Brandyn Garcia
RHP Ashton Izzi
Mariners grade: B+
This is the first significant trade heading into the final week before the deadline, and it’s interesting in part because it signifies the Diamondbacks are going to be dealing — Naylor could be the first of a group that might include Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, potentially spicing up the deadline with some intriguing names.
While third base was the Mariners’ biggest offensive need, Naylor gives them a well-rounded hitter who has been one of the top contact hitters in the majors this season, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs and the 13th-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters. Naylor has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, hitting .310/.390/.493 with nine of his 11 home runs. That’s an upgrade over incumbent Luke Raley, who has hit .248/.370/.397 against right-handers but is just 1-for-20 against southpaws, with light-hitting Donovan Solano serving as his platoon partner.
Naylor can play every day and fits somewhere in the middle of the lineup, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the majors in strikeout rate, so his contact ability will be a nice addition. It also improves Seattle’s bench as Raley can now fill in at right field (although Dominic Canzone has been hitting well) or DH, with Jorge Polanco perhaps getting some time at second base over Cole Young. Rookie third baseman Ben Williamson is an excellent defender but has just one home run in 256 at-bats. While Polanco has plenty of experience at third in his career, he hasn’t started there since April 4 as a shoulder issue has limited his throwing.
In other words: The Mariners could still seek an upgrade at third base. The Diamondbacks might wait until July 31 to deal Suarez, hoping that one of the several teams that need a third baseman will give in with a nice package of prospects. The Mariners didn’t give up any of their top 10 prospects here, so here’s guessing that Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Arizona general manager Mike Hazen aren’t done exchanging text messages.
Diamondbacks grade: B
While Garcia and Izzi didn’t rank in Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Mariners prospects, that’s not necessarily a knock on their potential: Seattle’s top 10 is loaded with top-100 overall prospects. Garcia was ranked No. 13 on MLB.com’s team list and Izzi No. 16.
Drafted in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia was a surprising success story as a starter in 2024, but the Mariners moved him to the bullpen this season, and he just made his MLB debut after posting a 3.51 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A with 42 strikeouts in 33⅔ innings. He throws a mid-90s sinker along with a sweeper and cutter, and held lefties to a .235 average and .255 slugging percentage. He can probably go straight to Arizona’s bullpen right now, with the idea that the Diamondbacks try him as a starter in 2026. He’s a nice sleeper prospect in a trade like this, with at least a floor as a reliever and maybe some upside as a back-end starter.
Izzi is a 21-year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball who was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2022, but he has struggled at high-A Everett with a 5.51 ERA across 12 starts. His fastball/sweeper combo could eventually work as a reliever, although right-handed batters have hit him as hard as lefties. He’s a development prospect.
Nothing too flashy here, but there wasn’t going to be a huge market for Naylor, and he was competing with the likes of Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in the 1B/DH class, so Arizona probably figured it had to strike first with Naylor, giving the team more time to discuss deals for their other pending free agents. — Schoenfield
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Buster Olney
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Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- Analyst/reporter ESPN television
- Author of “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty”
The MLB trade season is heading to the homestretch!
While this year’s deals have been a bit slow to develop, there have been intriguing acquisitions, with the Seattle Mariners landing Josh Naylor and the New York Yankees getting Ryan McMahon headlining the early moves.
Now, with less than 48 hours remaining to deal before the 6 p.m. ET deadline arrives Thursday, conversations involving big names, including Eugenio Suarez, Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr., continue to circulate through the industry.
Which players will move in the final days? Which teams will go all-in to add the best available players? And which trades will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season? We enlisted ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jeff Passan to offer their latest intel as the deadline nears.
What are you hearing that could keep things moving in the final hours?
Olney: The New York Mets‘ effort to get better. The Arizona Diamondbacks are the epicenter of the teams looking to part with players, but between now and the deadline, the Mets might be the most aggressive club adding players, looking for a starter who could pitch Game 1, 2 or 3 of a postseason series. Relief pitching and an outfielder — perhaps Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles — are also among their needs.
Passan: The number of teams that want high-leverage relief pitchers — and the relative paucity of them on the market. St. Louis’ Ryan Helsley is the top rental option. And then there is the group of controllable arms who could move but don’t have to: Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, and Tampa Bay’s Pete Fairbanks.
Considering the number of teams that desire impact relief help — the Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, both New York teams and the Los Angeles Dodgers — the ones that have it are understandably holding out for a strong return. There are second- and third-tier relievers, sure, but there isn’t enough elite supply for the demand that exists. Which is why San Diego is dangling Robert Suarez, San Francisco is fielding calls on its back-end guys, and even the A’s could conceivably get an offer they can’t refuse for Mason Miller.
Which deal do you think will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season?
Olney: Whichever late-inning reliever is acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies — whether it be Ryan Helsley or Griffin Jax or someone else — Rob Thomson will have to rely on that pitcher heading into the postseason. Jose Alvarado is sidelined in October because of his PED suspension.
Passan: It all depends on teams’ willingness to move players with multiple years of control. The market of impending free agents ranges somewhere between meh and ugh. But if Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore were to go? Duran or Jax? Steven Kwan? All are possible. The cost, at this point, is prohibitive, but the deadline does odd things to front offices. Discomfort can be the most underrated tool at a deadline.
We’ve seen varying activity levels from the World Series favorites. What are you hearing about the last-minute plans for the division leaders?
Passan: The Blue Jays want at least one more reliever after getting Seranthony Dominguez from the Orioles. Detroit wants to shore up the back end of its bullpen and isn’t against nibbling for value on bigger pieces. The Astros want a starting pitcher. The New York Mets will get an arm and a center-field bat. The Brewers won’t do much, unless value falls into their laps. The Dodgers will consider bigger names, with a reliever the top priority.
Olney: In the American League, the World Series favorite means … everybody. The league seeming to be so wide open is driving a lot of the enthusiasm for the Mariners, Texas Rangers and even the Yankees. You can draw up a reasonable path to the World Series for about seven teams in the AL, and this might well fuel some bold moves in the last hours before the deadline.
The wild-card races are tightening. What are you hearing the Chicago Cubs, Phillies, Yankees and Mariners could do next as they try to keep their grip on the top spots?
Olney: The Cubs would love to add a front-line starting pitcher, someone who could effectively replace Justin Steele in their rotation. But maybe more than any team, they could be hamstrung by how thin the market is unless they value the cost of acquiring Joe Ryan or Cease or if they work something out for Merrill Kelly.
The Yankees are focused on adding bullpen help and a right-handed hitting outfielder, such as Harrison Bader. The Phillies need a high-end bullpen pitcher but are also in the mix for Luis Robert Jr. And the Mariners are going to do something for their bullpen — plus, some rival execs still view them as the favorite to land Eugenio Suarez.
Passan: Shane Bieber is another option for the Cubs. The Phillies are among the most aggressive teams in the relief market and will add an arm. The Yankees aren’t as gung ho as they were, say, two weeks ago, but they’re going to backfill with at least one solid reliever.
The Mariners are the deadline wild card, though. They’ve got a cadre of top 100-caliber prospects — eight in all — and the question they’ll ask themselves is: Are we comfortable moving someone like Harry Ford for a rental like Suarez? To this point, the answer has been no. But weird things happen in the final 40 hours before a deadline. And a team really going for it — the Mariners want a bullpen arm, too — is far from the worst thing, particularly when said team has never even made the World Series.
Who are some other available players you are hearing discussed most by front offices?
Passan: Wednesday is the day that teams are hoping to see the asks in return for controllable players come down. If they don’t, those teams will start pivoting to the rental market, understanding that it’s going to be flooded and looking to strike rather than be put in a panicky position over the final 12 hours before the deadline. The big names — Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Luis Robert Jr., Bednar, Helsley, Bieber — have plenty of traction, and most, if not all, will go.
Olney: I’d guess that 75% of the players moved between now and the deadline will be relievers. This will be like a game of musical chairs, as front offices sort through options such as the Minnesota Twins‘ Danny Coulombe and Griffin Jax, the Rays’ Pete Fairbanks, the Rockies’ Seth Halvorsen, etc. All of the contenders are looking to add relievers, and they are looking at the same players.
Which other teams are you hearing could be the most active before the deadline arrives?
Olney: The Tampa Bay Rays and Diamondbacks figure to be the most prominent to deal players, and the San Diego Padres will do something to augment their offense and try to get back into the October dance.
Passan: The Orioles, even after moving Dominguez and Gregory Soto, have a huge inventory. The D-backs will be busy. The Marlins, with Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and a group of relievers, could play a big role. The Twins have lots to offer. Beyond Duran and Jax, left-hander Coulombe and right-hander Brock Stewart are two relievers with markets, and super-utility man Willi Castro could go, too. The Pirates will be busy. And the Guardians hold a lot of cards with Kwan and Bieber.
What else are you hearing ahead of the deadline?
Olney: A lot of frustration because teams looking to trade prominent players — knowing this year’s market — are holding their asking prices high, and the teams who want to add are trying to wait them out. “It’s a slow-moving market,” one exec said Tuesday night. But at some point, rest assured, the dam will break, and the deals — mostly for relievers — will happen fast and furious.
Passan: The Padres, as always, are toying with doing something big. The Twins continue to have exceptionally high asks on their relief arms. The chance of the Guardians moving Kwan is higher than teams believed a week ago. The Phillies and Mets are being very aggressive. Some teams are looking at players controlled through 2027 and factoring in the possibility that labor discord could significantly impact that season. And the lack of star power that could move will be made up for by the volume of deals.
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