Adam Boulton: JD Vance v Tim Walz – why the vice presidential debate could sway US election

Published

1 year ago

September 30, 2024

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TV debates have mattered more than ever before in this year’s US presidential election.

President Joe Biden’s pitiful performance on 27 June effectively knocked the incumbent out of the race for the White House.

Then on 10 September Biden’s replacement, vice president Kamala Harris, proved she is a real contender, baiting her opponent Donald Trump into wild statements such as “they’re eating the pets!”.

The Democrats have recovered in the polls since Harris took over the nomination, including in so-called swing states, to the point that she is now narrow favourite to beat Trump, according to some respected analysts.

Others still reckon the Republican Trump will be re-elected. Either way, all agree the contest is on a knife edge with voting already under way in a handful of less populated states, and opening next week in Illinois.

With things so close, the televised debate next Tuesday could even tip the balance.

“All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1% in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,” according to Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist.

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Harris and Trump will not be on stage. This latest debate in CBS studios in New York City on 1 October is between their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz.

In most years vice presidential debates are sideshows which have little impact on the voters. Not this year.

The rise of Harris to presidential candidate has shown Americans that VPs are important. Just as Trump had to scramble to find a new running mate following stinging condemnation from Mike Pence, the man who served as his vice president for four years.

Adding to the excitement, the two men who will be facing off this week are also the best phrase-makers in this campaign.

Vance wrote bestselling book Hillbilly Elegy, based on his rough upbringing in the Appalachians. He likes to launch sweeping attacks on his foes, including dismissing Democratic women as “childless cat ladies”. Taylor Swift embraced this jibe for herself in her recent post endorsing Harris.

Walz probably owes his place on the ticket to the single word “weird”, which he spent the summer sticking on Trump and Vance to devastating effect in multiple media interviews on behalf of the Democratic campaign.

The confrontation between the two men promises to be spicy.

There is a generation gap between them. Walz is 60. Vance is 20 years younger. Walz likes to present himself as a folksy centrist dad. In The Manual, a signature campaign commercial, Walz sets about fixing his old car, “a ’79 International Harvester Scout”, while likening it to creating an opportunity economy for all.

He is also a veteran democratic politician having served 12 years in Washington in the US House of Representatives before being elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, the post he still holds.

Vance’s career has been meteoric. Four years in US Marine Corps provided his ladder to university. Then he became a corporate lawyer for investment firms.

Following the success of his book, his backers included the controversial tech titans Peter Thiel, Eric Schmidt and Marc Andreessen. After a lightning campaign in 2022, he is currently a first-term Republican US Senator for Ohio.

Both men served in the military in non-combat roles. Vance was a journalist in uniform during his four years which included deployment to Iraq. Walz belonged to the Minnesota National Guard for 24 years.

The Harris campaign admitted he “misspoke” when he described assault rifles as “weapons of war that I carried in war”.

The two “VP picks” share archetypal middle-American backgrounds, Nebraska and Minnesota for Walz and Kentucky and Ohio for Vance, which were major factors in why they were chosen as running mates. Harris is from California, Trump from New York City and Florida, all of which are regarded as coastal fleshpots by citizens in “flyover states”.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona; the main candidates are all concentrating their campaigning on the battleground states – those most likely to “flip” decisively for one party or another, delivering a majority in the electoral college.

This weekend Walz has set up his debate camp in Michigan. In between mock debates in which the Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is standing in for Vance, Walz will meet and greet the locals in the bayside resort of Harbor Springs. Conveniently there is a “Festival of the Book” taking place which will allow Walz to strut his stuff as a school teacher.

Vance has called up US representative Tom Emmer from Walz’s home state for his prep. The House majority whip should know where his old foe’s vulnerabilities lie.

This debate will not be relaxed. Unusually for a vice presidential encounter, the protagonists will not be sitting down, they will be standing at lecterns. The last time that happened was 2008 with Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

As with the other debates this year, the Presidential Debates Commission has not been called upon to organise this one. The two sides agreed their own rules with the broadcaster. This time there will be no studio audience, once again, and two moderators: CBS presenters news anchor Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of Meet The Press.

As Harris continues to challenge Trump to another debate without success, Vance has countered in advance demanding a second debate with Walz on 18 October. The Democrat is acting modest, protesting of Vance “he’s a Yale Law guy. I’m public school teacher”.

Walz hopes to play the part of a schoolmaster chiding a tearaway pupil. He will do well if he can emulate Lloyd Bentsen’s crushing put down of the younger Dan Quayle in their 1988 vice presidential debate: “I knew Jack Kennedy. You’re no Jack Kennedy.”

Walz has fertile territory to exploit. JD Vance has already had to eat many of his wilder statements. He once likened his boss Trump to “Hitler”. For electoral reasons he has U-turned on his book’s thesis that his fellow poor whites were to blame for their own fecklessness.

Republican strategists hope that Vance will counter Walz’s rebukes over sexism and abortion by sticking to mainstream issues such as inflation and immigration.

Vance can boast a nuanced personal record on some social issues including healthcare. But he is also pugnacious and may be unable to resist going after Walz aggressively for what Republicans regard as his left-wing voting record.

Trump’s groundless claims that Harris is “a communist” seem to be impressing Hispanic voters.

Walz has more to lose and Vance has more to prove in the debate. Harris has embraced her choice of Walz, notably by appearing with him for her first major TV interview. Trump barely mentions Vance at his rallies. In opinion polls Walz has net approval ratings of 10%, Vance is at around minus 35%.

Debates are proving their value in this election year. Americans are paying increasing attention to them. 51.3 million tuned in to Biden/Trump earlier in the summer, 67.1 million watched Harris/Trump earlier this month.

An outcome on Tuesday night as vivid as in the two previous debates this year could well be a defining moment for the next presidency.

On the other hand, both veteran Democrats and Republicans will also remember that while Lloyd Bentsen smashed the debate, George H W Bush and Dan Quayle won the election.

US

US Supreme Court rejects appeal request from Ghislaine Maxwell

Published

3 hours ago

October 6, 2025

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US Supreme Court rejects appeal request from Ghislaine Maxwell

The US Supreme Court has rejected an appeal request from Ghislaine Maxwell, the imprisoned ex-girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein, over her criminal conviction.

Maxwell was sentenced in June 2022 to 20 years in prison after being convicted in December 2021 on sex trafficking charges.

Her lawyers argued she never should have been tried or convicted for her role in luring teenage girls to be sexually abused by Epstein.

The nine justices declined to take up a case that would have drawn renewed attention to the sexual-abuse saga.

US President Donald Trump and his administration, which urged the court not to accept the case, have been condemned for refusing to publicly release all the files from Epstein’s case.

Maxwell was moved from a low-security federal prison in Florida to a minimum-security prison camp in Texas after she was interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche in July.

As usual, the justices on the highest court in the US did not explain why they turned down the appeal.

Maxwell’s legal team argued she shouldn’t have faced prosecution because of a deal that Epstein, who took his own life while in prison in 2019, made with federal prosecutors in Miami.

The 2007 agreement protected his “potential co-conspirators” from federal charges anywhere in the country, they said.

Maxwell was prosecuted in Manhattan, and the federal appeals court there ruled that the prosecution was proper.

A jury found her guilty of sex trafficking a teenage girl, among other charges.

Maxwell was given limited immunity when Mr Blanche interviewed her over the summer, allowing her to speak freely without fear of prosecution for anything she said except for in the event of a false statement.

She repeatedly denied seeing any sexually inappropriate interactions involving Mr Trump, according to records released in August meant to distance the president from the disgraced financer.

Epstein was arrested in 2019 on sex trafficking charges and was accused of sexually abusing dozens of teenage girls.

A month later, he was found dead in a New York jail cell in what investigators described as a suicide.

Maxwell’s move to a lower security facility was criticised by the family of Epstein abuse survivor Virginia Giuffre, who died in April, and accusers Annie and Maria Farmer.

Describing Maxwell as a “sexual predator who physically assaulted minor children on multiple occasions”, they said in a statement the transfer “smacks of a cover up. The victims deserve better”.

When it announced in July that no additional documents from the investigation would be released, the US Justice Department declared that Epstein had killed himself, despite conspiracy theories to the contrary.

A “client list” that US Attorney General Pam Bondi had intimated was on her desk did not actually exist, the department said.

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US

Donald Trump authorises deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Chicago

Published

1 day ago

October 5, 2025

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Donald Trump authorises deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Chicago

Donald Trump has ordered the deployment of 300 National Guard members to Chicago, the latest in a string of cities where US troops have been sent.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson confirmed the US president authorised the move, citing what she called “ongoing violent riots and lawlessness” that local leaders have not quelled.

“President Trump will not turn a blind eye to the lawlessness plaguing American cities,” Ms Jackson said.

Chicago is the latest city in the US where Mr Trump has authorised the deployment of US troops, as it follows similar orders for Los Angeles, Washington and Portland.

Democratic governor JB Pritzker branded the move unnecessary and “a manufactured performance – not a serious effort to protect public safety”.

The Illinois governor said in a statement: “This morning, the Trump administration’s Department of War gave me an ultimatum: call up your troops, or we will.

“It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will.”

It comes as an attempt by the Trump administration to deploy the National Guard in Portland, Oregon, was temporarily blocked by a federal judge in a lawsuit brought by the state and city.

The plaintiffs said a deployment would violate the US constitution as well as a federal law that generally prohibits the military from being used to enforce domestic laws.

Mr Trump ordered the deployment of troops to “war-ravaged Portland” last week, authorising the use of “full force” if needed.

The move came after a gunman opened fire on an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) field office in Dallas, wounding two detainees and killing another.

Mr Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles over the summer and to Washington DC, as part of his law enforcement takeover there.

US

Trump says Gaza ceasefire will begin ‘immediately’ when Hamas confirms deal

Published

2 days ago

October 5, 2025

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Trump says Gaza ceasefire will begin 'immediately' when Hamas confirms deal

Donald Trump has said a ceasefire in Gaza will begin “immediately” after Hamas agrees to a new US plan to end the war.

The US president said Israel had “agreed to the initial withdrawal line” and “when Hamas confirms”, the ceasefire will start, Israeli hostages will be released and a prisoner exchange will begin.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said it would “create the conditions for the next phase of withdrawal, which will bring us close to the end of this 3,000-year catastrophe”.

It came as Hamas accused the Israeli government of lying about reducing its military operations, accusing it of continuing to “commit its horrific crimes and massacres” against Palestinians in Gaza, claiming 70 people had been killed by strikes since Saturday morning.

The group said it “exposes the false claims of the war criminal Netanyahu’s government regarding scaling back military operations against defenceless civilians”.

It comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he hopes to announce the release of all hostages from Gaza “in the coming days”.

Mr Netanyahu made the remarks as indirect talks with Hamas continue in Egypt on a new US plan to end the war.

Speaking after Hamas said it had accepted some elements of the plan, Mr Netanyahu said he had sent the delegation to Egypt “to finalise technical details”, adding that “our goal is to contain these negotiations to a timeframe of a few days”.

Donald Trump has welcomed Hamas’s statement, but on Saturday warned the group “must move quickly, or else all bets will be off”.

Trump orders Israel to stop bombing Gaza

Earlier in the day, Israel’s army said the country’s leaders had instructed it to prepare for the first phase of the US plan to end the war in Gaza.

Israel has moved to a defensive-only position in Gaza and will not actively strike, one official said, adding that no forces have been removed from the territory.

It came hours after Mr Trump ordered Israel to stop bombing Gaza after Hamas said it accepted some elements of his plan.

What’s in the peace plan?

Mr Trump’s proposed plan to end the war has widespread international support and on Friday, Mr Netanyahu’s office said Israel was committed to bringing the conflict to an end.

Under the plan, Hamas would release the remaining 48 hostages, of which around 20 are believed to still be alive, within three days. It would also give up power in Gaza and disarm.

In return, Israel would end its offensive and withdraw from much of Gaza, as well as release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and allow an influx of humanitarian aid and eventual reconstruction.

Hamas has said it is willing to release the hostages and hand over power to other Palestinians, but argued other aspects of the plan require further consultations among Palestinians. Its statement did not address the issue of Hamas demilitarising, which is a key part of the deal.

Warning ‘extremists on both sides’ could sabotage peace plan

A group representing some families of hostages said the prospect of seeing their loved ones return “has never been closer” and they appealed to Mr Trump to keep pushing “with full force”.

They warned “extremists on both sides” would try to sabotage the plan.

The war began when Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.

Since then, at least 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count, but says women and children make up around half of the dead.