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Sep 30, 2024, 08:20 AM ET

On the heels of a weekend that brought more big developments than any other so far this season, the College Football Power Rankings have been shaken up accordingly.

In a game fans won’t forget anytime soon, Alabama and Georgia put on a show that had us on the edge of our seats until the end. It was a matchup between undefeated conference opponents and Alabama ended up walking out of Bryant-Denny Stadium with a 4-0 record.

It’s a season in which true freshmen are making their mark and Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith is showing he’s a real problem for opposing defenses. Smith is three touchdowns shy of a program record and we’re only five weeks into the regular season.

With Oklahoma State and Illinois both losing over the weekend, Boise State and Rutgers join the rankings following Week 5 wins and big performances from Ashton Jeanty for the Broncos and Kyle Monangai for the Scarlet Knights.

Here’s the latest top 25 from our college football experts, who provide their insight on each team’s Week 5 performance.

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

Previous ranking: 5

Alabama had owned Georgia with Nick Saban as coach, and now it’s Kalen DeBoer’s time. It was DeBoer’s debut in the rivalry, and this one was wild until the end with Alabama holding on to win 41-34 after leading 28-0 in the first half. A pair of true freshmen came up huge for the Crimson Tide (4-0). Receiver Ryan Williams scored the go-ahead touchdown on a 75-yard catch and spin move to the end zone. And then with Georgia driving to potentially tie the score, cornerback Zabien Brown intercepted Georgia quarterback Carson Beck in the end zone.

DeBoer said afterward there was obviously celebration in the locker room, but added, “We expect to win these games.” He has won a bunch of them, too. He’s 13-2 in his past 15 games against AP nationally ranked teams and has lost only three games as a power conference coach, including his two seasons at Washington. Alabama still has some tough tests remaining, notably Tennessee and LSU on the road. The Tide travel to Vanderbilt this coming weekend. — Chris Low

Previous ranking: 1

This is how good Texas is: The Longhorns, with their backup quarterback, muddled through a sloppy start in their SEC opener against Mississippi State, lost two fumbles, dropped a wide-open touchdown pass and had eight offensive penalties. But they still rolled up 522 yards and won by 22 over the Bulldogs.

It helps, certainly, that Arch Manning is their backup quarterback and could start at most every school in America, throwing for 324 yards, two touchdowns and rushing for 33 more and another TD. But going into a bye week, the Longhorns are 5-0, have played most of their roster during three nonconference wins in which they outscored opponents 159-10, and added a 31-12 road win at Michigan for an exclamation point. — Dave Wilson

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes

Previous ranking: 4

True freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith again stole the show, this time, with a pair of dazzling one-handed grabs, as the Buckeyes easily dispatched Michigan State 38-7. With five receiving touchdowns already, Smith is only three scores away from breaking Cris Carter’s record set in 1984 for most receiving touchdowns by an Ohio State true freshman in a season. Smith also scored a 19-yard touchdown on a reverse in the second quarter that helped break the game open.

In Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr., the Buckeyes have had four receivers drafted in the first round in the past three years. Smith-Njigba told ESPN over the summer that Smith could be ready for the NFL by next year. Smith, however, won’t be eligible for the draft until 2027. That is a scary proposition for opposing Big Ten defenses. — Jake Trotter

Previous ranking: 3

While Georgia and Alabama were playing one of the wildest games of the season, Ole Miss was falling to Kentucky and Texas was working a little harder than expected to get past Mississippi State, Tennessee was kicked back on a bye week, basking in the glow of a 4-0 start and a 216-28 scoring margin.

The Vols have been mostly untested, and they’ll be comfortably favored in their next couple of games — a road test at Arkansas and a visit from Florida in Knoxville — before a third Saturday in October visit from Alabama. The Tennessee defense has given up the fewest points and yards per drive in FBS, and the offense has rediscovered its explosiveness. But the tests resume soon enough. — Bill Connelly

Previous ranking: 2

Kirby Smart didn’t mince words. He said he didn’t have his team ready to play Saturday in a 41-34 loss to Alabama. The Bulldogs (3-1) fell behind 28-0 before rallying valiantly and taking the lead in the fourth quarter. That kind of fight should serve Georgia well the rest of the way because the Bulldogs have a grueling schedule. They still have to play at Texas, at Ole Miss and get Tennessee at home. Georgia’s defense was much better in the second half against Alabama and kept the Bulldogs in the game.

Perhaps the most disappointing thing for Georgia is that quarterback Carson Beck has not played particularly well the past two games. He wound up throwing for 439 yards and three touchdowns Saturday but turned the ball over four times. His final pick was in the end zone in the final seconds with Georgia trying to tie the score. The Bulldogs need to get Beck back to playing with the efficiency he displayed last season if they’re going to stay in the playoff race. — Low

Previous ranking: 7

Well, that was close. It would be easy enough to look at Week 5’s narrow escape against Virginia Tech Hokies as a reminder that nothing about this Miami season is guaranteed, and the relatively painless first four weeks were but an hors d’oeuvre to a much tougher conference slate.

On the other hand, it could also be a reminder — if you’re into the whole “vibes” thing — there’s something entirely special about this particular group of Canes, and the magic of Cam Ward‘s shovel pass, Xavier Restrepo‘s catch from his back, to Schrödinger’s replay, which was somehow both right and wrong at once. If nothing else, it was probably some needed adversity for a team that will still face plenty more ahead. — David Hale

Previous ranking: 9

At times it looked as if Oregon was going to blow out UCLA by more than 30 points. And yet, there were still moments during Saturday night’s 34-13 win over the Bruins in which the Ducks seemed to be sleepwalking their way into danger against an inferior opponent. A pick-six thrown by Dillon Gabriel (albeit not his direct fault) gave UCLA life that, though short-lived, again raised some eyebrows about the Ducks’ ability to handle better teams than the ones they’ve faced so far.

Still, their talent on both sides of the ball (over 400 yards on offense while giving up fewer than 200 on defense) remains not just undeniable but enough to carry them through dry spells. That’s more than enough to stay undefeated — for now. — Paolo Uggetti

Previous ranking: 8

The Nittany Lions didn’t play their cleanest game but wore Illinois down in a grinding 21-7 win. Penn State’s standout running back duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combined for 196 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Penalties hampered Penn State, including a block in the back that wiped out what would’ve been a game-clinching touchdown return on an interception.

Sander Sahaydak also missed two 40-yard field goal attempts, and Penn State squandered another scoring opportunity in the red zone, failing to convert on a fourth-and-3. Still, the Nittany Lions controlled the game and are now the only FBS team to begin 4-0 in each of the past four seasons, according to ESPN Research. More importantly, Penn State remains firmly in the thick of the playoff race. — Trotter

Previous ranking: 11

Last we saw of Mizzou, the Tigers were laboring into overtime to get past Vanderbilt. It wasn’t the most top-10 worthy performance in the world, but they got to 4-0 and got to soak in a bye week before a huge trip to Texas A&M this coming Saturday.

Aside from a couple of long-pass glitches, the defense has been mostly awesome, giving up only 12 points per game. But the offense has underachieved, failing to top 27 points in regulation against either of their two power conference opponents so far. Last year, when the Tigers had to raise their game, they very much did so. To live up to top-10 hype and remain in the playoff race, they’ll have to do the same starting this coming Saturday. — Connelly

Previous ranking: 12

The Wolverines recorded a one-score home win for the second straight week, but the team’s outlook doesn’t look quite as promising as it did after beating USC. Michigan again failed to eclipse 100 passing yards, as Alex Orji had 86 — an improvement from 32 against USC — with a touchdown and an interception. But Michigan’s run game wasn’t nearly as potent, even though Kalel Mullings continued to bully his way for 111 yards and two touchdowns.

The Wolverines were outgained in consecutive wins for the first time since 2005, as a Wolverines defense that stoned Minnesota for three quarters really struggled down the stretch, giving up 21 points and 109 yards in the final 14:01. All-American Mason Graham led the defense with two sacks and a quarterback hurry, but Michigan must find a way to balance its offense with Orji or the losses will start coming in October. — Adam Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 14

The Tigers did not get off to as fast a start on offense as their previous two games, but you would never know it if you just looked at the 40-14 final against Stanford. The Cardinal played Clemson much tougher at the outset, before eventually being worn down. Cade Klubnik scored five total touchdowns and now has 16 touchdowns in the past three wins.

The defense gave up an uncharacteristic 236 yards rushing (5.4 yards per carry) but made plays when it mattered, including forcing three turnovers and three fourth-down stops. Next up is a trip to Florida State, where former Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei awaits. Clemson sits 2-0 in the ACC with a schedule that looks more manageable by the week. — Andrea Adelson

Previous ranking: 15

For the second week in a row, the Trojans started off sluggish against a Big Ten opponent, but Lincoln Riley’s team made the second-half adjustments necessary to bounce back from a deficit. While a failed goal-line stand at Michigan cost the Trojans their first loss of the season last week, on Saturday against Wisconsin at home, USC didn’t falter. It erased an 11-point halftime deficit with 28 unanswered points in the second half thanks to a strong passing day from Miller Moss, who found nine different receivers for over 300 yards and three touchdowns.

The Trojans’ new-look defense continued to look the part as it didn’t allow a point over the last two quarters and had a pick-six by linebacker Mason Cobb that sealed the result — the program’s biggest win after trailing by 10 points or more at the half in 25 years. Now four games into the season, it’s clear new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has not only revamped the unit, but more importantly, has shown he’s able to make key adjustments during games to shut down opposing offenses with authority. — Uggetti

Previous ranking: 18

Matt Campbell became the winningest coach in Iowa State history Saturday thanks to a 20-0 road victory at Houston, securing the first 4-0 start of Campbell’s nine-season tenure. This was an ugly 3-0 game at halftime, but the Cyclones eventually pulled away with a 240-yard effort from their run game and another excellent effort from Jon Heacock’s defense.

Houston went 1-for-10 on third downs and did not reach the red zone once against a unit that now ranks fourth in FBS in scoring defense at 7.3 points per game. With Baylor and West Virginia up next, a 6-0 start looks entirely possible. — Max Olson

Previous ranking: 16

The Irish saw a bit of everything in their first full month of the season, and came up on the other side still with their CFP hopes probably intact. Notre Dame has clear flaws on offense, especially in the passing game, and was outgained 395-280 in Saturday’s win against Louisville, while running 22 fewer plays than the Cardinals. The Irish are still looking for a convincing offensive performance at home, although quarterback Riley Leonard showed some promise Saturday, completing 17 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, and leading Notre Dame with 52 rushing yards and a score.

Coach Marcus Freeman’s main theme afterward was to maintain “an aggressive mentality,” which he displayed by attempting consecutive fourth-down conversions despite a 10-point lead and a struggling offense. Notre Dame overcame several injuries to key defenders against Louisville and gets a well-placed open week to heal up before hosting Stanford on Oct. 12. — Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 6

One of the most explosive offenses in the country, at least against teams with lesser personnel, got a little dose of reality Saturday. Ole Miss, which had scored a total of 220 points in its first four games, was stopped in its tracks in a 20-17 home loss to Kentucky. The Rebels were held to 92 rushing yards and were just 1-of-10 on third down. And on defense, Ole Miss couldn’t get off the field, as Kentucky nearly doubled Ole Miss in time of possession (39:43 to 20:17).

As damaging a loss as it was for Lane Kiffin and the Rebels (4-1), they still have some chances for resumé-building wins as they now head into the teeth of their schedule, which looked to be one of the more manageable ones in the SEC back in August. Ole Miss goes on the road the next two games, at South Carolina next week and then at LSU on Oct. 12. That will be seven games in seven weeks for the Rebels, and both the Gamecocks and Tigers will be coming off bye weeks. There’s also a home game against Georgia looming on Nov. 9. In other words, the road to the playoff just got a lot more difficult for Ole Miss. — Low

Previous ranking: 20

After jumping out to a 28-7 lead against Baylor, it looked as if the Cougars were on their way to another lopsided Big 12 win, but they were kept out of the end zone in the second half as Baylor cut the deficit to six with 10 minutes left. BYU combined for only two yards over its next three drives, but Baylor wasn’t able to capitalize and the Cougars remain undefeated. With an upcoming bye week, they’ll try to avoid the fate rival Utah suffered over the weekend — a loss at home to Arizona — in an attempt to remain undefeated. The Cougars and Iowa State are the only remaining Big 12 undefeated teams this season. — Kyle Bonagura

Previous ranking: 17

After the season-opening loss to USC, LSU has won four in a row, albeit against teams it should beat, and now the Tigers get a week off before diving into the toughest part of their schedule. LSU (4-1) routed South Alabama 42-10 on Saturday with the Garrett Nussmeier-to-Kyren Lacy connection working well. Nussmeier passed for 409 yards and two touchdowns (also two interceptions), and Lacy had five catches for 107 yards.

LSU had 11 different players catch passes, and the offense rolled up 667 yards. After the bye week, LSU gets Ole Miss at home on Oct. 12 and then road games at Arkansas and Texas A&M before another bye week and then Alabama at home on Nov. 9. If LSU is indeed a playoff team, we should know after that stretch. — Low

Previous ranking: 23

The Wildcats bounced back strong from their first loss of the season with a convincing 42-20 win against Oklahoma State, in a matchup between two of the Big 12’s preseason favorites. Running back DJ Giddens was particularly impressive, running for 187 yards on 15 carries, and quarterback Avery Johnson ran for two scores and threw for three more. With a bye week before back-to-back road games against Colorado and West Virginia, Kansas State should gain more confidence as Johnson gains more experience. — Bonagura

Previous ranking: 22

No first-year coach has brought a more dramatic surge of success and excitement than Indiana’s Curt Cignetti this fall. The Hoosiers are 5-0 for the first time since 1967 — the last time the team shared a Big Ten title — after Saturday’s 42-28 win against Maryland. They also have their highest five-game points total (244) in team history. Even the first signs of shakiness from quarterback Kurtis Rourke couldn’t slow him down or Indiana’s offense, which overcame turnovers on three of its first five drives.

Beginning late in the first half, the Hoosiers scored touchdowns on four consecutive drives as Rourke revved up the big-play passing attack. Elijah Sarratt (128 yards) and Omar Cooper Jr. (78 yards) led the way as Rourke averaged 16.3 yards per completion. Cignetti won’t like four turnovers, but his team still won comfortably thanks to the passing game and a defense that recorded five sacks, two by James Carpenter. — Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 10

It was only a matter of time, it seemed, for the Cam Rising injury saga to catch up with the Utes — and it finally did. With true freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson thrust into another start — this time against a dangerous Arizona team — the Utes were not able to find key conversions when it mattered.

They were 0-for-4 on fourth down, turned three straight red zone trips to open the game into only three points and Wilson tossed two picks in a 23-10 loss to Arizona. With a bye week upcoming, there is some hope Rising will be able to return against Arizona State on Oct. 11, but his availability is firmly in believe-it-when-we-see-it territory. — Bonagura

No. 21 Boise State Broncos

Previous ranking: NR

In what is not a current Pac-12 matchup but will be a future Pac-12 matchup between two teams that are part of the new, seven-team league (for now), the Ashton Jeanty show again took center stage. Jeanty continued his Heisman campaign with a ridiculous performance that nearly matched his record-breaking Week 1 game. On 26 carries, Jeanty totaled 259 yards on the ground and four touchdowns, including a 64-yard score and a 59-yard score on his way to fueling the Broncos’ 45-24 win over undefeated Washington State.

It’s not just the sheer numbers Jeanty is putting together that are impressive (he has 13 touchdowns and is averaging over 10 yards per carry), it’s the way in which he’s doing it. Jeanty has become must-watch TV every time he touches the ball as he’s prone to make defenders miss and rack up yards after contact over and over again. Is he more or less carrying Boise State’s offense? Yes. But right now, that is enough to make the Broncos one of the 20 best teams in the country. — Uggetti

Previous ranking: 24

Brent Venables called it Sooner Magic, and he certainly has a point. How else can you rationally explain what Oklahoma pulled off against Auburn? Down 21-10 early in the fourth quarter of its first SEC road test, the Sooners dug deep and played their best football late, rallying for a 27-21 victory.

New starting quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. sparked the rally with a 60-yard shot to J.J. Hester to set up the first score, and linebacker Kip Lewis made an epic play to flip the game, a 63-yard pick-six with less than 5 minutes left. Oklahoma needed this win in a lot of ways and found a way to get it done. That’s a confidence booster for this squad as it begins preparing for Texas and the Red River Rivalry. — Olson

Previous ranking: 13

After a relatively quiet 3-0 start, Louisville had the chance to make a real splash against Notre Dame and essentially remove the Irish from the CFP picture. Notre Dame provided opportunities, fumbling the opening kickoff and again fumbling near its goal line. But coach Jeff Brohm’s team ultimately couldn’t capitalize, despite spectacular catches from wide receivers Caullin Lacy and Ja’Corey Brooks, solid play from quarterback Tyler Shough and a defense that held Notre Dame to 43 yards in the third quarter.

Louisville had sizable edges in yards, plays and third-down conversions (7-2), but had only one long touchdown drive. Stanquan Clark led a strong defensive effort in the second half. But an inexplicable delay-of-game penalty on fourth-and-1 in the closing seconds sidetracked a potential tying or winning drive for Louisville, one of several moments that will sting Brohm and his players after a missed opportunity in South Bend. — Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 25

How many of these top-25 teams could lose their starting QB and play better without them? The Rebels responded to Matthew Sluka’s sudden departure over an NIL compensation dispute by playing one of their best games yet under coach Barry Odom, a dominant 59-14 win over Fresno State.

New QB Hajj-Malik Williams, a sixth-year senior transfer from Campbell, was excellent through the air (13 of 16 for 182 yards and three TDs) and on the ground (119 rushing yards, one TD) and got a ton of help with UNLV’s defense grabbing four interceptions and its special teams scoring two touchdowns. With the win, UNLV has achieved its first AP Top 25 ranking in program history. If this team can stay on track, the UNLV-Boise State showdown on Oct. 25 will have serious College Football Playoff implications. — Olson

No. 25 Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Previous ranking: NR

Greg Schiano entered the season very confident about his team, and he has been proven right so far. Rutgers is 4-0 for the first time since 2012 and has reflected the brand of football Schiano loves — strong line-of-scrimmage play, bruising defense and a run game led by star Kyle Monangai, who had 132 rushing yards and a touchdown in Friday’s win against Washington, including a highlight-reel 40-yarder when Rutgers was backed up to its own 2-yard line in the third quarter.

Linebacker Dariel Djabome (12 tackles) led a defense that bent but rarely broke, giving up only 2-of-12 third-down conversions and let Washington implode with its own mistakes. Rutgers played clean, efficient football, converting both of its red zone trips into touchdowns and improving to 15-1 since 2020 when not committing a turnover. The Scarlet Knights aren’t a dominant team and will need more from their passing attack as the Big Ten schedule gets tougher, but they’re in position for a very solid season. — Rittenberg

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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5 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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6 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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