MLB playoff preview: World Series odds, keys to success and predicted date of doom for all 12 teams
The 2024 MLB playoffs are here!
Starting with this week’s wild-card series (beginning Tuesday at 2:30 p.m. ET on ABC), it’s sure to be another thrilling October of postseason baseball. We’ve got you covered with everything you need to know, from the first pitch of the playoffs to the final out of the World Series.
After the regular season ended with no 100-win team for the first time in a decade, this October appears wide open. Will Shohei Ohtani‘s first playoff appearance end in a World Series title for the Los Angeles Dodgers? Will the Philadelphia Phillies power through the playoffs? Or will we see another unexpected run through the National League? Will the New York Yankees go from the American League’s No. 1 seed to the World Series — or will the Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles or one of the AL Central surprise teams get in their way?
MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with odds for every round, a predicted date of each team’s last game and a name to watch for all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Passan’s World Series pick | Insider playoff intel | Bracket | ESPN BET: Odds & more
Jump to a team:
NYY | CLE | HOU | BAL | KC | DET
LAD | PHI | MIL | SD | ATL | NYM
American League
No. 1 seed | 94-66 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Royals/Orioles (62% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 19.4% | ESPN BET odds: +425
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Let’s not get too cute here: It has to be Aaron Judge or Juan Soto, since they’ve carried the Yankees all season. It’s hard to imagine New York winning without those two producing. Judge hasn’t been great in his postseason career (.211 average, .772 OPS); Soto was terrific as a 20-year-old for the Nationals in 2019 (especially in the World Series) but didn’t do much for the Padres in 2022. Let’s go with Judge, since he’ll have plenty of RBI opportunities if Soto is getting on base in front of him. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … They don’t play sound, fundamental baseball. The Yankees have premier talent highlighted by three superstars: Judge, Soto and Gerrit Cole. They can pitch and they can really hit. But they also have a propensity to get sloppy on defense, depend too much on the home run and make puzzling mistakes on the basepaths — they rank last in the majors in baserunning, according to FanGraphs. Every out and every run counts that much more in the postseason. An ability to give outs away and an inability to manufacture runs against elite pitching can haunt even the most talented teams in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The love affair between Soto and the greater New York City metropolis prolonged through the summer and will spill into the fall. Presumptions that Soto and his massive persona would be an ideal fit for the outsized stakes of baseball in the Bronx have been validated by a dominant season overshadowed only by that of his own teammate. But as Judge can attest, Yankees legends are made exclusively in October. And though his performance in prior postseason stints with the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres has been spotty, nobody likes the spotlight more than Juan José Soto. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Even if the Yankees aren’t your cup of tea, there is no denying that dynamic duos such as Judge and Soto are a historical rarity. According to Baseball Reference’s batting runs above average metric, the five highest single-season totals for teammates have been four Lou Gehrig-Babe Ruth seasons, and the 2024 tandem of Soto and Judge. More than a simple stacking of two Hall of Fame-level hitters, there is something about the back-to-back pairing of them in the nightly Yankees lineup that is somehow even greater than the considerable sum of their parts. With Soto reaching free agency whenever New York’s postseason run ends, there is no guarantee we’ll see this again. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 92-69 | AL Central champs
ALDS opponent: Tigers/Astros (51.3% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 9.8% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 21
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Can we just pick the entire bullpen? No? Four relievers have won a World Series MVP (Larry Sherry, Rollie Fingers, John Wetteland and Mariano Rivera) so don’t rule out Emmanuel Clase. Indeed, while Jose Ramirez is the obvious choice, his game hasn’t translated to the postseason, with just two home runs in 124 at-bats. Let’s go with Clase; if Cleveland wins, it’s probably because he gets four World Series saves. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The starting rotation isn’t good enough. Cleveland posted the best bullpen ERA in baseball by a substantial margin. Clase has been the best closer in the majors. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin might be the sport’s stoutest bridge to the ninth inning. The rotation is another matter. No. 1 starter Shane Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery after two starts. Triston McKenzie, two years removed from a breakout season, performed so poorly he was sent to Triple-A in June and hasn’t returned to the majors. Without them, Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA in 31 starts) emerged as the top starter for a rotation that finished tied for 23rd in ERA and 24th innings pitched. The Guardians will need to piece together the pitching to make a title run. But too much reliance on the bullpen might be unsustainable. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Guardians acquired Lane Thomas before the trade deadline hoping he would fortify an offense in perpetual need of production. August was brutal, but Thomas showed what he’s capable of amid a torrid month of September. He has been hitting mostly behind Josh Naylor, but also in front of Ramirez at times. His presence will be critical in October. The Guardians finished in the middle of the pack in OPS and runs per game this season. They need someone besides Ramirez, Naylor and Steven Kwan to produce consistently. They need the Lane Thomas who provided 28 home runs and a .783 OPS for last year’s Washington Nationals. He might have tapped back into that. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: 1948. That’s when Lou Boudreau, Larry Doby, Satchel Paige, Bob Feller & Co. led Cleveland to the World Series. Good times. Harry Truman was president. Jack Kerouac was gallivanting around the country with Neal Cassady. Don Draper was still living as Dick Whitman, years away from landing on Madison Avenue. The franchise has not won it all since then, giving it the longest active title drought in baseball. This team, with an offense that has contact, athleticism and just enough power, and armed with the sport’s best bullpen, is built to quench that thirst. To do so, the Guardians will have to topple some superstars — Judge, Ohtani among the possibilities — which would make it that much sweeter to watch. — Doolittle
No. 3 seed | 88-73 | AL West champs
Wild-card opponent: Tigers (65.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 8.1% | ESPN BET odds: +800
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 12
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Jeremy Pena was the MVP when the Astros won it all in 2022, as Yordan Álvarez hit just .130 in that World Series. Alvarez did hit the decisive home run in Game 6, however, and he has generally been a force in his postseason career (.949 OPS). After a slow start in April and May, he has been crushing it since June. As long as he can overcome his late-season knee injury, he’s the pick here. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Álvarez doesn’t return from his knee sprain healthy enough to supply his usual production — if he returns at all. Don’t let their final record fool you: The Astros, even without Álvarez, might be the team to beat in the American League. After starting 15-25, they finished the season a league-best 73-48. They boast five starting pitchers peaking at the right time (and that doesn’t include the struggling Justin Verlander). They have a top-tier bullpen. Their offense is peppered with proven postseason performers. But Álvarez is their most frightening hitter. The star slugger led the team in batting average (.308), home runs (35), RBI (86), and fWAR (5.2). His 168 wRC+ tied for fourth in the majors among qualified players. And he has been a terror for opposing pitchers in October, batting .295 with 12 home runs and a .949 OPS in 58 career postseason games. The Astros’ pitching might be good enough to take them to their eighth straight ALCS. But a healthy Álvarez could be the difference. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Astros signed Ronel Blanco for $5,000 as a 22-year-old out of the Dominican eight years ago. They placed him in their Opening Day rotation as a placeholder because the rest of the staff was in flux. Then they watched him throw a no-hitter on the first day of April and anchor a staff that was decimated by injuries for most of the ensuing six months. Now Blanco will venture into October as a key player for an Astros team hoping to extend its run of consecutive ALCS appearances to eight, be it as a starter or as a reliever. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Astros give us something we can count on. Sure, we might not always love the way they go about it, but Houston is as constant as death, taxes and “The Simpsons.” The Astros are bidding to reach the LCS round for an eighth straight year, making them a 21st-century version of the old Yankees dynasty. Teams just aren’t supposed to sustain success like this, not in the 2020s. Through it all, Houston has maintained its air of swagger and inevitability. If you admire consistency, you have to admire the Astros, and our time to appreciate this run might finally be running out. Well, maybe. —Doolittle
1:48
What will be the keys to the Tigers-Astros wild-card series?
Jeff Passan, Buster Olney and Tim Kurkjian analyze the pitching in the Tigers’ wild-card matchup against the Astros.
No. 4 seed | 91-71 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Royals (59.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.9% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 10
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be …Anthony Santander has had a quiet 44-homer season, that’s for sure. While he doesn’t hit for a high average, he’s not a strikeout-prone hacker up there: He actually whiffs less often than teammate Gunnar Henderson. The switch-hitter has also been effective from both sides of the plate. That could translate nicely in October, especially if he locks in like he did in June and July, when he slugged 22 home runs with a .973 OPS. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The offense doesn’t snap out of its late-season funk. The Orioles’ pitching staff has significant question marks. Injuries have pillaged the starting rotation. The bullpen has been in disarray. That means the offense needs to wake up after ranking 20th in runs scored since Aug. 1. Recent reinforcements should help, but it starts with Adley Rutschman. While Henderson should finish in the top five in AL MVP voting and Santander cracked the fifth-most home runs ever for a switch-hitter, Rutschman slogged through a dismal second half. While Henderson should finish in the top five in AL MVP voting and Santander cracked the fifth-most home runs ever for a switch-hitter, Rutschman slogged through a dismal second half. The catcher was batting .300 with 15 home runs and an .830 OPS in 348 plate appearances through June 28, a start good enough to warrant his second straight All-Star nod. After that, he batted .189 with four home runs and a .559 OPS in 290 plate appearances for the remainder of the regular season. He remained in the 2-hole most nights despite the struggles. The Orioles won’t play deep into October if he doesn’t reverse course. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Any hopes that Grayson Rodriguez might return before season’s end were dashed last week, when the Orioles announced he would be shut down with the right lat/teres strain that had kept him out since early August. Rodriguez is the fourth Orioles starter who has been ruled out for 2024, along with Kyle Brash, John Means and Tyler Wells, all of whom underwent surgery to repair damaged ulnar collateral ligaments. So, as if there were ever any doubt, it’s Corbin Burnes‘ time to shine. The 29-year-old right-hander has been everything the Orioles could have hoped for since coming over from the Milwaukee Brewers via trade on the first day of February. Now he’ll look to carry a beleaguered starting rotation in October. His performance will have as direct an impact on Baltimore’s chances as anyone’s. It’ll also go a long way toward determining the type of contract he gets in free agency. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: There has never been a World Series game played at Camden Yards. This needs to change. This is the 33rd season for one of baseball’s best venues, and so far, its World Series game count is zilch. The only Series-less ballpark with more quiet late Octobers was the Astrodome, which never hosted a Fall Classic in 35 years. Camden Yards is one of the sport’s crown jewels, once at the vanguard of one of baseball’s golden ages of stadium construction, built long before the current model of parks serving as anchors for real estate developments even more than as places for baseball to happen. We need overhead shots of this park with World Series-level media production and frenzy. Also, the Orioles haven’t won a championship in a long time. –– Doolittle
1:44
Passan: ‘The future is now’ in Royals-Orioles matchup
The “Baseball Tonight” crew marvels at the superstar shortstop showdown between Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson when the Royals and Orioles face off.
No. 5 seed | 86-76 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Orioles (40.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 2.3% | ESPN BET odds: +2500
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Bobby Witt Jr. would be the apparent choice, although he slowed down a bit in September after his ridiculously high level of play throughout the summer and opponents might force others in the lineup to beat them. Let’s go with Salvador Perez, the sentimental pick here. He had a nice postseason the last time the Royals were in it back in 2015, slugging .517 with four home runs for the World Series champions. He’s a better hitter now than he was then (although nobody chases more than Perez), and he won’t be catching every game this time either. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The starting pitching doesn’t mask the bullpen’s shortcomings. The Royals (barely) completed their remarkable 30-win year-to-year turnaround behind their elite starting pitching, which finished second in baseball in both ERA and innings pitched. The bullpen is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 23st in ERA and near the bottom in win probability added. The Royals, who enter the playoffs without a designated closer, tried bolstering the bullpen by acquiring Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey, two right-handers with high strikeout rates, before the trade deadline. Erceg was effective in a few roles, including closer, but Harvey was placed on the injured list after six appearances with Kansas City and won’t pitch again in 2024. Wild-card teams have made World Series runs in recent years with shallow bullpens by aggressively deploying starting pitchers. That’s a possibility for Kansas City. But at least a few relievers will need to step up. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Don’t forget how this stirring Royals season began: Witt, their homegrown superstar, signed a massive contract extension that officially made him the face of their franchise. Then he went out and continued to play excellent shortstop defense, mash a bunch of homers, run like his hair was on fire and put together an age-24 season that would have been worthy of an MVP if not for the exploits of Aaron Judge. Now we’ll all have the joy of watching one of baseball’s budding superstars perform on its grandest stage. The Royals will probably go as Witt goes, especially if Vinnie Pasquantino can’t make it back from his broken thumb. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: What’s your favorite type of fairy tale? Rags to riches? Ugliness transforms to beauty? The hero emerges to save the day? The Royals have it all. Witt’s historic season has been the face of the Royals’ remarkable turnaround in 2024, but there is so much more to Kansas City’s stunning rise. How about old-school starting pitching? How about top defenders all over the field? The Royals aren’t just a great story — they’re really fun to watch. Beyond all that, it’s easy for bad teams to hide behind their badness as a reason to not invest in the roster. Certainly, that has happened in Kansas City in the past, but not this time. Trying isn’t the whole story, but it is an unavoidable first step. If they keep winning, this lesson becomes that much more abject. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 86-76 | AL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Astros (34.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 1.7% | ESPN BET odds: +3000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Somebody who steps up to carry the offense. Parker Meadows was so bad early on (.131 average in 35 games) that the Tigers sent him back down to the minors. After being called back up in August, he put up an OPS over .800 the final two months and cut his strikeout rate from 35% to 20%. Throw in some excellent defense in center field (88th percentage in outs above average) and he has a chance to create big plays on both sides of the ball. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Tarik Skubal runs out of gas. The Tigers mounted their incredible run to a playoff spot behind the best second-half ERA in baseball. Skubal, the overwhelming AL Cy Young favorite, fronted the charge with dominance every five days. The left-hander became the seventh pitcher since 2000 to win a league’s pitching Triple Crown, going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 192 innings. Skubal logged at least six innings in 25 of his 31 starts, which allowed manager A.J. Hinch to regularly increase bullpen usage on days Skubal didn’t pitch — especially after Jack Flaherty was traded at the deadline. No other Tigers pitcher logged more than 112 1/3 innings this season. For the formula to work in October, Skubal must remain a workhorse. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Spencer Torkelson struggled throughout the year and Colt Keith was up and down, but two other promising young Tigers position players have blossomed this season: Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Greene, the fifth overall pick in 2019, made the All-Star team and gave the offense some much-needed pop. Carpenter, a steal in the 19th round of the same draft, surged through April and May, missed the next two-plus months with a back injury and then picked up right where he left off. Both were red hot in September. Both must continue to be in order to support the Tigers’ pitching staff. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Let’s face it: You don’t have any idea what this team is doing in an October bracket. To call the Tigers a Cinderella team is too easy; Detroit’s rise has been flat-out shocking, and if you say you saw it coming, you are either fibbing or your name is Nostradamus. In five weeks, the Tigers improved their playoff probability from 1% to 100%. That just doesn’t happen. If Detroit gets walloped in the wild-card round, maybe they’re just another team that got hot long enough to squeeze into a bloated playoff structure. But wouldn’t it be more fun if they kept this going? — Doolittle
National League
No. 1 seed | 95-64 | NL West champs
NLDS opponent: Braves/Padres (57.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 17.3% | ESPN BET odds: +300
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 21
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … If you want the storybook ending to the 2024 playoffs, it will be Shohei Ohtani — playing in his first postseason. But let’s go with Freddie Freeman, who seems to have the style of hitting that works well in October, the right combination of discipline, contact and power. He’s a career .285 hitter in the postseason with an OPS over .900 and got a hit in all six World Series games for the Braves in 2021. Ohtani and Mookie Betts will get the spotlight, but Freeman — as long as his late-season ankle injury isn’t serious — can put the Dodgers over the top. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Their superstars don’t produce. The number of injuries to the Dodgers’ starting rotation is alarming. But the rotation was also a concern last year and it ultimately wasn’t the reason they were stunned by the Diamondbacks in a three-game NLDS sweep. Los Angeles gave up four runs in each of the final two games. The Dodgers scored two. A year earlier, the Dodgers combined to score 12 runs in a four-game NLDS loss to the Padres. Betts is 2-for-25 over the past two postseasons. Freeman went 1-for-10 last year. Ohtani just recorded one of the most impressive seasons in history and will win NL MVP, but he has never played in the MLB postseason. The Dodgers aren’t going anywhere if their stars go silent. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Ohtani played the 866th game of his career on the night of Sept. 19, at that point the most among active players who had yet to appear in baseball’s postseason. He proceeded to — as you’ve probably heard by now — put together one of the greatest single-game performances ever while on his way to starting the 50/50 club and leading the Dodgers to a playoff clinch. While he languished in Anaheim over these past six years, fans all over the world longed to see Ohtani play meaningful games on baseball’s grandest stage. And if the 2023 World Baseball Classic was any indication for what that might feel like, they’re in for quite a ride. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Let’s see if we can get through this without mentioning Ohtani. (Oops!) Well, let’s just call it historical validation. The Dodgers, since 2013, have sustained a high level of success that has rarely been replicated in baseball annals. For all of that dominance, they have ended just one season with a win and that title — 2020 — is always going to have a “yeah, but …” attached to it. The Dodgers have been one of the game’s great dynasties, but they probably need a championship in a normal season for people to remember them as such. –– Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 95-67 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Mets/Brewers (60.9% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 19.2% | ESPN BET odds: +425
Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 2
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Starting pitchers rarely win World Series MVP honors these days — only Stephen Strasburg in 2019, Madison Bumgarner in 2014 and Cole Hamels in 2008 have won in the past 20 years — but Wheeler would be the best bet to do it this postseason. He has been great for a long time and just had his best regular season. He has performed well the past two postseasons (2.42 ERA). He’s efficient enough to pitch deep enough into games to impress the voters. Just don’t expect any complete games (Johnny Cueto threw the last in the World Series in 2015). — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Rust trumps rest. OK, so that can’t really be a reason. Or can it? The Phillies are as well rounded as any team in baseball. They have a top-flight starting rotation, bullpen and offense. They boast a veteran roster that has experienced it all. This team is better than the Philly teams that advanced to the World Series in 2022 and fell one game short of returning in 2023. Both times the Phillies were a wild-card entrant, and both times they toppled the mighty Braves, the NL East champs, in the NLDS. This time, the Phillies will benefit from (or be hindered by?) a bye to the NLDS after winning their first division title since 2011. They will not roll from the regular season straight into October madness. Will that matter? It’s a debate waged every year. Maybe it will for the Phillies. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: What might separate this Phillies team from other great ones of recent years is the depth of the pitching staff, with five members making the 2024 All-Star team. Nobody embodies that better than Cristopher Sanchez, the 27-year-old right-hander who has shown he can hold up over a full season. Sanchez, who made just one brief start in last year’s postseason, has been mostly dominant since the middle of August. He has been especially good at home, making him a logical candidate to start as early as Game 2 of the division series. Regardless of the venue, he and Ranger Suarez will have to step up behind Wheeler and Aaron Nola when the lights get brightest. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Bryce Harper, full stop. OK, Harper is a polarizing player to some, for reasons that aren’t readily apparent. Still, he’s a great, great player, a future Hall of Famer who goes about things the right way, and greatness is always worth appreciating. Harper has excellent career postseason numbers, especially for the Phillies portion of his career, but he is stuck on zero rings. The Phillies have a lot of terrific players who play hard looking for their first title, but it’s Harper more than anyone who needs a ring to fill out his impeccable résumé. — Doolittle
Milwaukee Brewers
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL Central champs
Wild-card opponent: Mets (56.4% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.6% | ESPN BET odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Willy Adames led the Brewers in home runs and RBIs and tied Ken Griffey Jr.’s major league record with 13 three-run home runs in one season. For the season, he hit .293 with a 1.065 OPS with runners in scoring position. For the Brewers to win, Adames must continue his clutch hitting with men on base. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The bullpen finally falters. The Brewers’ elite relief corps improved as the season went along. The group’s 3.11 ERA for the season was second in baseball — and its 2.70 ERA since Aug. 1 was even better. The strong finish correlates with Devin Williams‘ participation. The closer registered a 1.25 ERA and converted 14 of 15 save chances after making his season debut July 28. He allowed runs in two of his 22 appearances — and didn’t allow any over his last 13 innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starters logged the fifth-fewest innings in baseball while recording the 17th-best ERA. Veteran right-hander Freddy Peralta has been steady. Rookie right-hander Tobias Myers was a revelation. But starting pitching was never going to be the Brewers’ strength after losing Brandon Woodruff for the season and trading Corbin Burnes in February. In short, Milwaukee’s playoff run will be abbreviated if Williams and the rest of the crew don’t continue pitching well. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Brewers gave Jackson Chourio an eight-year, $82 million contract in December, before he had even set foot in the major leagues. They put the 20-year-old outfielder on their Opening Day roster, watched him struggle through the first two months and never sent him down. Then he started to show why he merited such unwavering trust at such a young age. He took control of his at-bats, learned how to quiet his surroundings in pressure situations, displayed versatility with his speed and defense, and put together a historic season in his own right. Chourio became the first player to record 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases before his 21st birthday, leading a Brewers offense that has been among the sport’s best despite not boasting many big names. With Christian Yelich out, the pressure will be largely on Chourio to produce in October. The Brewers believe he’ll be up for it. They always have. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Why *shouldn’t* you root for the Brewers, especially if your favorite team isn’t in the hunt? Milwaukee just wins, year in, year out, even as it transitions front office leaders, managers and, especially, the players in the clubhouse. This kind of sustained efficiency warrants attention. Beyond that, the Brewers have transitioned into something different than they were even a year ago. Their lineup is now driven by the most athletic position group in the majors. The pitching staff is no longer reliant on a rotation big three and instead features a made-for-October roster of bullpen depth and versatility. On top of all that, a career baseball guy, Pat Murphy, is leading the way in his first full shot at the big chair. You got to root for Murph. — Doolittle
San Diego Padres
No. 4 seed | 93-69 | NL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Braves (54.2% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.7% | ESPN BET odds: +1000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 9
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Manny Machado got off to a slow start at the plate as he recovered from offseason elbow surgery (hitting .241 with five home runs through May). As the offense surged in the second half, however, Machado crushed it, averaging nearly an RBI per game. He hasn’t been great in the postseason — .221 average with a .274 OBP in 41 games — so maybe he’s due for a big October. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Robert Suárez‘s recent struggles bleed into the postseason. The Padres arguably had the best bullpen in baseball once they acquired Tanner Scott and Jason Adam at the trade deadline. But Suárez hasn’t played his part of dominant closer over the final two months. Suárez, an All-Star, had a 1.42 ERA, .517 OPS against, and 24 saves in 27 chances across 44 appearances through Aug. 7. Over his next 20 outings, he posted a 5.66 ERA with a .752 OPS against and three blown saves in 15 save opportunities. He probably would’ve had another blown save if Miguel Rojas hadn’t grounded into a game-ending triple play with Shohei Ohtani on deck on Sept. 24. It’s been choppy for Suárez, but the Padres have stuck with him in the ninth inning. The leash could be shorter in October. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Padres had the audacity to take a 20-year-old lifetime shortstop who hadn’t played above Double-A, tell him to learn center field and ask him to help make up for the loss of Juan Soto. And Jackson Merrill has had the audacity to do more than even the most optimistic of folks could have expected from him. Merrill, now 21, has played an elite center field and has been an even better hitter, providing power and speed and a knack for coming through in clutch situations — an element that famously eluded last season’s group. He might win the Rookie of the Year despite Paul Skenes‘ transformative season in Pittsburgh. But first, he’ll star in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Maybe it’s hard to watch a game and root for an executive, but when it comes to assertive roster-building, no one does it with more alacrity than A.J. Preller. No matter where the Padres are or what they have to spend, he pursues titles with the zeal of a Swiftie on the trail of a beaded bracelet. This year’s team was built for this moment, especially when it comes to the powerhouse collection of closer-level relievers Preller has collected during his manic searches of the transaction market. The Padres are one of the five MLB teams that have never won a World Series. Thanks to Preller, they might be better positioned to exit that list than ever before. — Doolittle
No. 5 seed | 89-73 | NL wild card
Wild card opponent: Padres (45.8% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 4.9% | ESPN Bet odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Hey, if Corey Seager can win two World Series MVP trophies (with the Dodgers in 2020 and last season with the Rangers), why not Jorge Soler? He won with the Braves in 2021 when he hit three home runs — all in Atlanta victories, including the go-ahead three-run homer in the clincher. Now back with the Braves after a deadline trade with the Giants, Soler is swinging the bat well — just like he did in 2021 when the Braves got him from the Royals. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … The top half of the lineup doesn’t produce. The Braves’ offense is still relatively deep for a group that lost Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley are out for the season. Marcell Ozuna had a career year and should finish in the top five in NL MVP voting. Michael Harris II batted .291 with 11 home runs and an .846 OPS in 41 games after missing two months with a strained hamstring. Ozzie Albies returned from the injured list in late September. Matt Olson looked like his old self in August and September after a dreadful first four months. Jorge Soler, the Braves’ 2021 World Series MVP, rejoined the team at the trade deadline to crack nine home runs in 44 games. Those five hitters must produce enough to complement one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. If they do, Atlanta could make a run reminiscent of 2021. If not, it could mean an early exit. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The Braves’ pitching plans were dealt a major blow on Monday, when it was revealed that Chris Sale, the likely NL Cy Young winner, is dealing with back spasms and will be unavailable in the upcoming wild-card round. Max Fried‘s importance has become even greater now. The last time Fried took the mound, he twirled 8 2/3 shutout innings against the resurgent Royals on Friday. He now lines up to pitch on normal rest in Game 2 of the wild-card series. Fried, a free agent at season’s end, was at his best down the stretch, posting a 2.14 ERA over his last five starts. Given how taxed their staff is at this point, the Braves desperately need more of that from their longtime ace. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: If you don’t think teams should use injuries as an excuse for not winning, then the Braves are your club. Of course, Atlanta already proved this in 2021 when they won the World Series even though Acuna was on the shelf with a knee injury. Flash forward to now, and the Braves can make it happen again. Only this time, in addition to Acuna being out, Atlanta enters the playoffs without preseason Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider and All-Star third baseman Riley. If the Braves can win with that much star power on the IL, truly there are no more excuses for anybody else. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 89-73 | NL wild card
Wild-card opponent: Brewers (43.5% chance of advancing)
World Series odds: 3.1% | ESPN BET odds: +2000
Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 3
If they win it all, the 2024 World Series MVP will be … Pete Alonso is heading to free agency, and the fan favorite belongs in the Big Apple for his entire career. What better way to ensure a return to the Mets than winning World Series MVP honors? It was an up-and-down regular season for him, but he’s certainly capable of bashing some big home runs hitting in the middle of a Mets lineup that was second in the majors in runs scored since June 12. — Schoenfield
If they go home early, it will be because … Francisco Lindor struggles to play through back pain. Lindor was Ohtani’s closest competition for NL MVP until his back flared up on Sept. 13. He played just one inning over the next 13 days before returning to the Mets’ lineup Friday. Neither Lindor nor the Mets have disclosed a diagnosis, but Lindor said testing showed “no structural damage” and he received a facet injection two Thursdays ago to expedite the healing process. The Mets went 6-6 without him to stay afloat, but October will be different. Lindor is the team’s heartbeat. He’s their leadoff hitter, shortstop, and clubhouse leader. He does the three jobs at an elite level. Winning playoff series without a healthy Lindor would be a tall task. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: If the Mets are going to make a surprisingly deep run in October, it’s going to take a lot of work from their pitching staff. The weather conditions that prompted a doubleheader in what was supposed to be an off-day on Monday guaranteed that. And nobody will be more important than Sean Manaea, who was roughed up in a key start against the Brewers on Friday but has nonetheless experienced experienced something of a renaissance. After back-to-back years with bloated ERAs in San Diego and San Francisco, Manaea went back to featuring his sinker instead of his four-seamer and has been perhaps the most astute addition in David Stearns’ first year atop baseball operations. Manaea seems all but certain to opt out of his two-year contract at season’s end. Before then, the 32-year-old left-hander will help lead a Mets rotation that might not get Kodai Senga back. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Sustainability. The Mets aren’t exactly a bargain team, but they are a little leaner compared with last season. Stearns has built a more efficient, deeper roster and made sure the Mets’ younger players got a chance to establish themselves at the big league level. Over the years, the Mets have tended to be less sustainable and more reckless, which can be fun but wearisome. You’d like to see the new approach pay off in October because, if it does, and you consider this model as a foundation to justify some ramped-up spending to come, you can start to ponder a new golden age in Mets baseball. That’s worth rooting for, though, admittedly, that might work for you only if you already root for the Mets. Smart management is always fun! — Doolittle
-
Mark Schlabach
ATLANTA — Ohio State’s high-powered offense proved to be too much for Notre Dame in the Buckeyes’ 34-23 victory in Monday’s national title game.
The Buckeyes captured their first national title in 10 years and first under coach Ryan Day. It was the school’s seventh national championship overall.
Even with Ohio State having a boatload of players who are expected to move on and be chosen in April’s NFL draft, the Buckeyes are No. 1 in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2025.
The Buckeyes will still have star players, such as receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, and they’ll plug holes with another top recruiting class and group of transfers.
Ohio State will be looking for a new quarterback as well, but it won’t be alone among the potential CFP contenders. Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, Oregon and others will be developing new signal-callers, too.
Here’s the 2025 ESPN Way-Too-Early Top 25:
2024 record: 14-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Jeremiah Smith, WR Carnell Tate, S Caleb Downs
Key losses: RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeka Egbuka, QB Will Howard, G Donovan Jackson, LB Cody Simon, S Lathan Ransom, DE Jack Sawyer, DE JT Tuimoloau, CB Denzel Burke
2025 outlook: After winning the program’s third national championship since 2002, the Buckeyes are going to undergo a bit of a makeover — but so are most of the other Big Ten contenders. The core group of seniors who came back in 2024 — led by Sawyer, Henderson, Egbuka and others — will be missed. Julian Sayin, a five-star prospect who transferred from Alabama, will probably be QB1 after Devin Brown and Air Noland entered the transfer portal. Sayin will have the luxury of throwing to Smith, the best receiver in the FBS, and the Buckeyes picked up tailback CJ Donaldson (West Virginia) and tight end Max Klare (Purdue) from the portal. Ohio State’s offense will be even better if RB Quinshon Judkins decides to come back. Some younger players will have to step up on the defensive line and in the secondary, but at least Downs is coming back.
2024 record: 13-3, 7-1 SEC
Key returning players: QB Arch Manning, RB Quintrevion Wisner, LB Anthony Hill Jr., DE Colin Simmons, DE Trey Moore, S Michael Taaffe
Key losses: QB Quinn Ewers, WR Matthew Golden, OT Kelvin Banks Jr., OT Cameron Williams, S Andrew Mukuba, CB Jahdae Barron, TE Gunnar Helm
2025 outlook: In their first season in the SEC, the Longhorns more than proved they were good enough to compete, reaching the SEC title game and CFP semifinals. With Ewers moving on, the highly anticipated Manning era will kick off in 2025. The Longhorns will have to rebuild their offensive line and replace some key receivers, including Golden and Isaiah Bond. There are big losses up front, with Banks, Williams, center Jake Majors and guard Hayden Conner departing. There’s a good nucleus returning on defense, led by linebackers Hill and Simmons, but three of the top four defensive backs are leaving. The Longhorns added linebacker Brad Spence (Arkansas) and defensive linemen Cole Brevard (Purdue) and Travis Shaw (North Carolina) from the portal. Texas opens the season Aug. 30 at Ohio State, a big early test for Manning.
2024 record: 13-3, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Drew Allar, RB Kaytron Allen, RB Nicholas Singleton, C Nick Dawkins, DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, S Zakee Wheatley, CB A.J. Harris
Key losses: DE Abdul Carter, TE Tyler Warren, S Jaylen Reed, G Sal Wormley, DT Dvon J-Thomas, LB Kobe King
2025 outlook: With Allar, Allen and Singleton returning, the Nittany Lions might get a senior boost like Ohio State did in 2024. Penn State came up short against Notre Dame in a CFP semifinal game at the Orange Bowl, but it was coach James Franklin’s best season. If Allar can take another step as a passer, and Franklin can find him some capable receivers, the Nittany Lions might be even better on offense in 2025. Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans, the team’s two top receivers in 2024, entered the transfer portal. Penn State added Troy’s Devonte Ross, who caught 76 passes for 1,034 yards with 11 touchdowns in 2024, and USC’s Kyron Hudson. Carter and King are big losses on defense, and so is former coordinator Tom Allen, who left for Clemson. The Nittany Lions host Oregon and Indiana in Happy Valley and play at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
2024 record: 14-2
Key returning players: RB Jeremiyah Love, RB Jadarian Price, WR Jordan Faison, WR Jaden Greathouse, LB Drayk Bowen, S Adon Shuler
Key losses: QB Riley Leonard, TE Mitchell Evans, DT Rylie Mills, S Xavier Watts, CB Benjamin Morrison, LB Jack Kiser, DT Howard Cross III
2025 outlook: With two solid coordinators and vastly improved recruiting, the Fighting Irish seem to be only scratching the surface under dynamic head coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish recovered from a shocking early loss to Northern Illinois at home to reach the CFP National Championship game. They’ll miss Leonard’s leadership, but the coaching staff is excited about freshman CJ Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, who was rated the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2024 recruiting class by ESPN. He battled an elbow injury on his throwing arm this past season. Backup Steve Angeli will compete with Carr for the job. There’s plenty of depth coming back on the offensive line, along with Love and tailback Jadarian Price. The Irish could use more game-changing receivers — they added Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin) from the portal. A few key players will have to be replaced on defense, and tackles Jared Dawson (Louisville) and Elijah Hughes (USC) and safeties DeVonta Smith (Alabama) and Jalen Stroman (Virginia Tech) should help fill some holes.
2024 record: 11-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Gunner Stockton, RB Nate Frazier, TE Oscar Delp, TE Lawson Luckie, LB CJ Allen, LB Raylen Wilson, S KJ Bolden, CB Daylen Everette
Key losses: QB Carson Beck, G Tate Ratledge, RB Trevor Etienne, LB Jalon Walker, S Malaki Starks, S Dan Jackson, LB Smael Mondon Jr., DE Mykel Williams
2025 outlook: The Bulldogs seemed a bit disjointed throughout much of the 2024 season, but they still won an SEC championship and reached the CFP for the fourth time in the past eight seasons. Stockton played well in his first start, a 23-10 loss to Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals. He will go into the offseason as the front-runner to replace Beck, who left for Miami. Georgia has to do a better job of blocking up front, catching the football and tackling on defense. It’s time for Kirby Smart to get back to the basics. The Bulldogs added former Texas A&M receiver Noah Thomas and USC receiver/kick returner Zachariah Branch from the portal. Safeties Jaden Harris (Miami) and Adrian Maddox (UAB) were important pickups with Starks and Jackson leaving. Georgia’s schedule won’t be quite as hard as it was in 2024, but the team still plays Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas at home and Tennessee, Auburn, Florida (in Jacksonville, Florida) and Georgia Tech on the road.
2024 record: 13-1, 9-0 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Evan Stewart, LB Devon Jackson, LB Teitum Tuioti, LB Matayo Uiagalelei, RB Noah Whittington, C Iapani Laloulu
Key losses: QB Dillon Gabriel, WR Tez Johnson, WR Traeshon Holden, RB Jordan James, OT Josh Conerly Jr., OT Ajani Cornelius, DE Jordan Burch, DT Derrick Harmon, CB Jabbar Muhammad
2025 outlook: The Ducks went 13-0 and captured a Big Ten title in their first season in the league. But their dream season came to a crashing halt with an ugly 41-21 loss to Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinals. Now, Oregon coach Dan Lanning faces a massive rebuilding job on both sides of the ball. But with a No. 1 recruiting class and a few transfer portal pickups on the way, there’s reason to believe the Ducks won’t fall too far. Former five-star prospect Dante Moore, who redshirted in 2024 after transferring to UCLA, is the favorite to replace Gabriel. Stewart’s return is a boost, and receiver Dakorien Moore of Duncanville, Texas, was the jewel of Oregon’s recruiting class. The Ducks are going to need plenty of young players to step up on defense, with only a few starters returning.
2024 record: 10-4, 7-1 ACC
Key returning players: QB Cade Klubnik, WR Antonio Williams, WR Bryant Wesco Jr., LB Sammy Brown, LB Wade Woodaz, DL T.J. Parker, DL Peter Woods, OT Blake Miller
Key losses: RB Phil Mafah, LB Barrett Carter, S R.J. Mickens, TE Jake Briningstool, G Marcus Tate, DL Payton Page
2025 outlook: Maybe Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is doing it the right way, and we were all wrong. Swinney caught plenty of flak for not utilizing the transfer portal after his team’s ugly 34-3 loss to Georgia in the opener. However, the Tigers rebounded to win another ACC title and reach the CFP. They’ll undoubtedly be the team to beat in the league in 2025, with Klubnik, Williams, Woodaz, Parker, Woods and Miller all electing to return for another season. With Williams, Wesco and T.J. Moore coming back, Clemson’s passing game might be even better. Finding a No. 1 tailback, after Mafah’s eligibility ended and Jay Haynes tore his ACL in the ACC championship game, will be a priority in the spring. The defense will have a new leader after Swinney fired coordinator Wes Goodwin and replaced him with Penn State’s Tom Allen. And guess what? Clemson signed three players from the portal: edge rushers Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama) and Will Heldt (Purdue) and receiver Tristan Smith (Southeast Missouri State).
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Garrett Nussmeier, RB Caden Durham, WR Aaron Anderson, LB Whit Weeks, CB Ashton Stamps, LB Harold Perkins Jr., S Jardin Gilbert
Key losses: WR Kyren Lacy, WR CJ Daniels, OT Will Campbell, OT Emery Jones Jr., TE Mason Taylor, G Garrett Dellinger, G Miles Frazier, LB Greg Penn III, DE Bradyn Swinson
2025 outlook: After the Tigers lost at least three games for the third straight season under Brian Kelly, they seem to be all-in heading into 2025. LSU added more than a dozen players from the transfer portal, including defensive ends Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), offensive linemen Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and cornerback Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech). Nussmeier threw for 4,043 yards with 29 touchdowns this past season, and his return might give LSU an edge over other SEC contenders. Rebuilding the offensive line and shoring up a defense that surrendered 24.3 points per game will be areas of focus in the offseason. It has to be better in 2025, right?
2024 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Jake Retzlaff, RB LJ Martin, WR Chase Roberts, WR/KR Keelan Marion, LB Harrison Taggart, LB Isaiah Glasker, LB Jack Kelly, S Tanner Wall
Key losses: CB Jakob Robinson, DE Tyler Batty, DE Isaiah Bagnah, CB Marque Collins, S Crew Wakley, OT Brayden Keim, C Connor Pay
2025 outlook: If the 2024 season was any indication, you could probably pick any of four teams (or more) to win a Big 12 title. Arizona State, BYU and Colorado were unlikely contenders this past season, and the Cougars are bringing back top playmakers Retzlaff, Martin, Roberts and Marion. There are a couple of starters who will have to be replaced on the offensive line, but reinforcements from the transfer portal should help. On defense, four of the top five tacklers should return, although BYU will have to reload up front. Kalani Sitake has built a solid program that should contend in the Big 12 each season. The Cougars won’t play Arizona State or Kansas State during the regular season, and road games at Iowa State and Colorado might be tricky.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB LaNorris Sellers, WR Mazeo Bennett Jr., LT Josiah Thompson, S Jalon Kilgore, DE Dylan Stewart, DE Bryan Thomas Jr., S DQ Smith
Key losses: S Nick Emmanwori, DT T.J. Sanders, DE Kyle Kennard, LB Debo Williams, LB Demetrius Knight Jr., G Kamaar Bell, C Vershon Lee, G Torricelli Simpkins III, RB Raheim Sanders
2025 outlook: After a bounce-back campaign in which the Gamecocks won four more games than in 2023 — including victories over Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson — they’ll have to replace the heart and soul of their defense this offseason. There are big personnel losses at all three levels, including Sanders and Kennard up front and Emmanwori on the back end. Three additions from the portal — defensive tackle Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (Texas A&M), LB Shawn Murphy (Florida State) and end Jaylen Brown (Missouri) — might be able to help. Sellers will be working under new offensive coordinator Mike Shula, and improving his pocket presence and consistency will be a priority. Rahsul Faison, who ran for 1,109 yards with eight touchdowns at Utah State in 2024, will get a chance to replace leading rusher Sanders. If Sellers improves, the Gamecocks might be an even bigger surprise in 2025.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Rocco Becht, RB Carson Hansen, RB Abu Sama III, LB Kooper Ebel, S Jeremiah Cooper, CB Jontez Williams, DL Domonique Orange, LB Caleb Bacon, TE Benjamin Brahmer
Key losses: WR Jaylin Noel, WR Jayden Higgins, C Jarrod Hufford, OT Jalen Travis, S Beau Freyler, DE Joey Petersen, DT J.R. Singleton, CB Myles Purchase, S Malik Verdon, CB Darien Porter
2025 outlook: After one of the best seasons in program history (the Cyclones had never won 10 games or more), there’s one goal left for Matt Campbell to achieve — win the program’s first conference title in 113 years. With Becht and two good tailbacks returning, Iowa State has some firepower returning on offense. But it will greatly miss Noel and Higgins, who each caught at least 80 passes with more than 1,100 yards in 2024. Iowa State is bringing in transfer receivers Xavier Townsend (UCF) and Chase Sowell (East Carolina). A few key contributors are leaving on defense, but much of one of the better secondaries in the FBS is coming back. The Cyclones play Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, to open the season and will host BYU and Arizona State at home.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: RB Jam Miller, WR Ryan Williams, WR Germie Bernard, C Parker Brailsford, OT Kadyn Proctor, DE LT Overton, LB Justin Jefferson, CB Zabien Brown
Key losses: QB Jalen Milroe, LB Jihaad Campbell, G Tyler Booker, S Malachi Moore, LB Que Robinson, DT Tim Smith
2025 outlook: The Crimson Tide’s first season under coach Kalen DeBoer was frustrating for Alabama fans, who had grown accustomed to Nick Saban’s consistency over the previous 16 seasons. The Tide lost more than three games in a season for the first time since Saban’s first campaign in 2007. Given DeBoer’s track record of success, expect a second-year leap in the SEC — but maybe not back into CFP title contention quite yet. Replacing Milroe will be a focus in the spring; Ty Simpson, onetime Washington transfer Austin Mack and five-star prospect Keelon Russell will battle for the job. The offensive line has a couple of holes to plug, but the receiver corps should be great with Williams and Bernard returning.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Luke Altmyer, RB Aidan Laughery, OT J.C. Davis, C Josh Kreutz, CB Xavier Scott, LB Gabe Jacas, LB Dylan Rosiek, SS Matthew Bailey, FS Miles Scott, RB Josh McCray
Key losses: WR Pat Bryant, WR Zakhari Franklin, NT TeRah Edwards, DE Dennis Briggs Jr., LB Seth Coleman
2025 outlook: The Illini are coming off a breakthrough year under coach Bret Bielema, producing the program’s first 10-win season since the 2001 squad went 10-2 and played in the Sugar Bowl. Now, the challenge is putting together back-to-back successful seasons — Illinois hasn’t had consecutive winning campaigns since going 7-6 in 2010 and 2011. All of the pieces are there for the Illini to run it back in 2025, especially after Davis, Scott and others decided to return. Bryant and Franklin will be missed on the perimeter. Bielema added West Virginia’s leading receiver, Hudson Clement, and Ball State’s Justin Bowick from the portal. All five starters are coming back on the offensive line. The Illini surrendered 21.7 points per game in 2024, but they should be better with so many starters returning. Illinois plays three difficult road games at Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin, and hosts USC and Ohio State at home.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Sam Leavitt, WR Jordyn Tyson, RB Kyson Brown, S Myles Rowser, S Xavion Alford, LB Keyshaun Elliott, LB Jordan Crook, CB Javan Robinson, DE Clayton Smith
Key losses: RB Cam Skattebo, WR Xavier Guillory, LB Caleb McCullough, S Shamari Simmons, C Leif Fautanu
2025 outlook: There’s no question the Sun Devils are going to face an uphill climb in replacing Skattebo’s production on offense. Not only did the All-America running back pile up 1,711 yards with 21 touchdowns on the ground, but he had 605 receiving yards and even threw for a score. Kanye Udoh, who ran for 1,117 yards with 10 touchdowns at Army last season, should be first in line to replace Skattebo. ASU brings back some key players in Leavitt and Tyson, who were outstanding in their first seasons in the desert. Cornerbacks Nyland Green (Purdue) and Adrian Wilson (Washington State) might help shore up a secondary that ranked 81st against the pass (226.7 yards) in 2024.
2024 record: 11-3, 8-0 ACC
Key returning players: QB Kevin Jennings, S Isaiah Nwokobia, G Logan Parr, OT Savion Byrd, OT PJ Williams, S Ahmaad Moses, CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson
Key losses: RB Brashard Smith, DL Jared Harrison-Hunte, C Jakai Clark, DE Elijah Roberts, LB Kobe Wilson, WR Key’Shawn Smith
2025 outlook: After reaching the ACC title game and the CFP in their first season in the league, the Mustangs will have plenty of work to do in the offseason to get back into contention. The good news is that quarterback Jennings, despite a rough performance in a 38-10 loss to Penn State in a CFP first-round game, is returning. The bad news: There are plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball departing. Leading rusher Brashard Smith, leading receivers Roderick Daniels Jr. and Key’Shawn Smith, and top defensive linemen Roberts and Harrison-Hunte are all departing. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee is bringing in at least a dozen new players through the portal — quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (Wisconsin), center Addison Nichols (Arkansas) and defensive end DJ Warner (Kansas) are among the most notable.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-4 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Avery Johnson, RB Dylan Edwards, WR Jayce Brown, TE Garrett Oakley, C Sam Hecht, LB Austin Romaine, S VJ Payne, LB Desmond Purnell
Key losses: RB DJ Giddens, WR Keagan Johnson, OT Easton Kilty, DE Brendan Mott, LB Austin Moore, S Marques Sigle, CB Jacob Parrish
2025 outlook: The Wildcats won at least nine games for the third straight season in 2024, and their record would have been better if not for dropping three of their last four regular-season games. Johnson is back after piling up 3,317 yards of offense with 32 scores. Replacing Giddens won’t be easy, but onetime Colorado player Edwards ran for 546 yards last season. Brown’s decision to return bolsters the receiver corps, which added Jerand Bradley (Boston College), Jaron Tibbs (Purdue) and Caleb Medford (New Mexico). Mott, Moore and Sigle were key players on defense. Cornerback Amarion Fortenberry (South Alabama), safety Gunner Maldonado (Arizona) and edge player Jayshawn Ross (Alabama) were intriguing pickups from the portal. Kansas State opens the season against Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland, and plays Army at home.
2024 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Elijah Sarratt, WR Omar Cooper Jr., OT Carter Smith, G Drew Evans, LB Aiden Fisher, CB D’Angelo Ponds, S Amare Ferrell, DE Mikail Kamara
Key losses: QB Kurtis Rourke, RB Justice Ellison, TE Zach Horton, C Mike Katic, LB Jailin Walker, S Shawn Asbury II, NT CJ West, DT James Carpenter
2025 outlook: Fresh off the greatest season in the 126-year history of the Indiana program, in which the Hoosiers won more than nine games for the first time and reached the CFP, coach Curt Cignetti is trying to reload through the transfer portal again. The Hoosiers are bringing in nearly 20 transfers, led by former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who threw for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2024. Tailback Lee Beebe Jr. (UAB), receiver Makai Jackson (Appalachian State) and tight end Holden Staes (Tennessee) were important additions on offense as well. Defensively, the Hoosiers have good production returning at linebacker and cornerback. Kamara’s return gives them a pass-rushing threat, and defensive tackles Hosea Wheeler (Western Kentucky) and Dominique Ratcliff (Texas State) could fill holes in the interior line. Indiana’s nonconference schedule is soft (Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS program Indiana State at home), and it’ll play Big Ten road games at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
2024 record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC
Key returning players: C Jake Slaughter, LT Austin Barber, QB DJ Lagway, RB Jadan Baugh, RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, WR Eugene Wilson III, TE Hayden Hansen DE Tyreak Sapp, DE George Gumbs Jr.
Key losses: LB Shemar James, WR Elijhah Badger, WR Chimere Dike. RB Montrell Johnson Jr.. DT Cam Jackson, QB Graham Mertz. P Jeremy Crawshaw, CB Jason Marshall Jr.
2025 outlook: Florida coach Billy Napier likes to say that momentum matters in college football, and his Gators are carrying plenty into the offseason after closing 2024 with a four-game winning streak. End-of-the-season and bowl results can be fool’s gold as well, so it might be a bit premature to get carried away about the Gators. More than anything, Florida fans should have hope after Lagway looked like a star in the making during the streak. The Gators will also bring back Baugh, another impressive freshman in 2024, and Slaughter, their All-America center. J.Michael Sturdivant (UCLA) transferred in to help a depleted receiver corps. Napier also signed two four-star wideout recruits, Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III. The biggest concern: Florida will again play one of the most difficult schedules in the FBS. The Gators have home games against Texas, Georgia (Jacksonville) and Tennessee and road contests at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Nico Iamaleava, WR Mike Matthews, RB Peyton Lewis, LB Arion Carter, CB Jermod McCoy, CB Rickey Gibson III, LB Jeremiah Telander
Key losses: RB Dylan Sampson, DE James Pearce Jr., WR Squirrel White, WR Bru McCoy, WR Dont’e Thornton Jr., C Cooper Mays, OT John Campbell Jr., G Javontez Spraggins
2025 outlook: After winning nine games or more for the third straight season and reaching the CFP, Josh Heupel has some work to do this offseason, especially on offense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see UT take a step back in 2025. The Volunteers are losing Sampson, the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns, and their top three receivers (McCoy and Thornton exhausted their eligibility, and White entered the transfer portal). Three starting offensive linemen will also have to be replaced. The Vols added former Arizona guard Wendell Moe Jr. and five-star tackle prospect David Sanders. There’s a solid nucleus coming back on defense, but Tennessee will miss Pearce’s production on the edge. The Volunteers will open the season against Syracuse in Atlanta, and they’ll play Georgia at home and Alabama and Florida on the road.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 ACC
Key returning players: WR Chris Bell, RB Isaac Brown, LB TJ Quinn, LB Stanquan Clark, C Pete Nygra, RB Duke Watson, S D’Angelo Hutchinson, OT Trevonte Sylvester
Key losses: QB Tyler Shough, WR Ja’Corey Brooks, DE Ashton Gillotte, DE Ramon Puryear, CB Quincy Riley, S M.J. Griffin, S Tamarion McDonald, G Michael Gonzalez
2025 outlook: The Cardinals lost four games for the second straight season under Jeff Brohm, but there’s no question the 2024 campaign could have been much better. Louisville dropped three games by seven points — against Notre Dame, SMU and Miami — then somehow lost at Stanford 38-35 on Nov. 16. Brohm landed former USC quarterback Miller Moss to lead the offense, and Brown is a blossoming star after breaking Lamar Jackson’s freshman rushing record with 1,173 yards to go with 11 touchdowns. The offensive line should be a strength, even after left tackle Monroe Mills transferred to Virginia. The Cardinals have added 20 players from the portal to shore up both sides of the ball, including top defensive end Clev Lubin (Coastal Carolina), linebacker Darius Thomas (Western Kentucky) and cornerback Jabari Mack (Jacksonville State).
2024 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Key returning players: LB Ernest Hausmann, LB Jaishawn Barham, DE TJ Guy, DE Derrick Moore, DL Rayshaun Benny, S Rod Moore, C Greg Crippen, G Giovanni El-Hadi, K Dominic Zvada, TE Marlin Klein
Key losses: DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, CB Will Johnson, S Makari Paige, DE Josaiah Stewart, TE Colston Loveland, RB Kalel Mullings, RB Donovan Edwards, OT Myles Hinton
2025 outlook: The Wolverines salvaged coach Sherrone Moore’s first season by stunning rival Ohio State 13-10 and knocking off Alabama 19-13 in the ReliaQuest Bowl. If Michigan is going to build on that momentum, it will have to get better quarterback play from freshman Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 prospect in the 2025 ESPN 300, or Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene. Moore fired offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell and replaced him with Chip Lindsey, who called plays at North Carolina the previous two seasons. Lindsey will try to revamp an offense that failed to produce a 40-yard passing play in 2024. The Wolverines are losing two potential first-round picks in Graham and Grant. They added former Alabama five-star recruit Damon Payne Jr. to help fill one of the holes. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale interviewed with the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons, so it’s unclear if he’ll remain in college football in 2025.
2024 record: 8-5, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Marcel Reed, RB Le’Veon Moss, RB Rueben Owens, OT Trey Zuhn III, LB Taurean York, CB Will Lee III, S Dalton Brooks, LB Scooby Williams
Key losses: DE Nic Scourton, DT Shemar Turner, DE Shemar Stewart, DB Jaydon Hill, CB BJ Mayes, WR Noah Thomas, WR Jabre Barber
2025 outlook: Mike Elko’s first season at Texas A&M turned south when the Aggies dropped four of their last five games after a 7-1 start. The good news is Reed is returning, along with Moss and Owens, who suffered season-ending leg injuries in 2024. The Aggies hit the portal hard to beef up their receiver corps, adding NC State’s Kevin Concepcion, Mississippi State’s Mario Craver and Texas Tech’s Micah Hudson (although his future with the team is reportedly unclear). Even better, every offensive starter is expected to return. There are massive holes on the defensive front, and a couple of key players will have to be replaced in the secondary. Texas A&M plays road games at Notre Dame, LSU, Missouri and Texas.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC
Top returning players: RB Mark Fletcher Jr., RB Jordan Lyle, OT Markel Bell, G Matthew McCoy, DE Rueben Bain Jr., CB OJ Frederique Jr., OT Francis Mauigoa
Key losses: QB Cam Ward, OT Jalen Rivers, WR Xavier Restrepo, WR Jacolby George, WR Isaiah Horton, RB Damien Martinez, TE Elijah Arroyo, LB Francisco Mauigoa, DE Tyler Baron, DL Simeon Barrow Jr., DB Mishael Powell
2025 outlook: The Hurricanes will have to replace much of the core that looked loaded for bear in 2024 but came up short again with a late-season loss at Syracuse. Ward, a Heisman Trophy finalist, won’t be easily replaced. Miami is banking on former Georgia starter Carson Beck fully recovering from surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow. He isn’t expected to resume throwing until sometime this spring. The Hurricanes will have to restock their receiver room after the top six pass catchers from 2024 left, but they did get CJ Daniels (LSU), one of the top wideouts in the portal. The Hurricanes have also brought in cornerbacks Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Emmanuel Karnley (Arizona) and Ethan O’Connor (Washington State) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) to improve a porous secondary. Miami coach Mario Cristobal fired defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and replaced him with Minnesota’s Corey Hetherman.
2024 record: 12-2, 7-0 Mountain West
Key returning players: QB Maddux Madsen, TE Matt Lauter, OT Kage Casey, DT Braxton Fely, DE Jayden Virgin-Morgan, LB Marco Notarainni, S Ty Benefield, S Zion Washington
Key losses: RB Ashton Jeanty, G Ben Dooley, WR Prince Strachan, DE Ahmed Hassanein, S Seyi Oladipo
2025 outlook: The Broncos claimed a second straight Mountain West Conference title and reached the CFP. Now they’ll begin life after Jeanty, who ran for an FBS-high 2,601 yards (890 more than Skattebo, the next-closest player) with 29 touchdowns in 2024. Obviously, it won’t be easy. Sire Gaines and Jambres Dubar will probably share carries, and the Broncos added former Fresno State tailback Malik Sherrod from the portal. The good news is that four starting offensive linemen are returning, including All-MWC tackle Casey on the left side. The defense brings back a plethora of experienced and productive players, starting with leading tackler Benefield and top sack man Virgin-Morgan. The Broncos play at Notre Dame on Oct. 4.
2024 record: 10-3, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Austin Simmons, WR, Cayden Lee, TE Dae’Quan Wright, LB TJ Dottery, LB Suntarine Perkins, DT Zxavian Harris
Key losses: QB Jaxson Dart, WR Jordan Watkins, WR Tre Harris, WR Antwane Wells Jr., LB Chris Paul Jr., CB Trey Amos, DT Walter Nolen, S Trey Washington, S John Saunders Jr., DE Jared Ivey, DE Princely Umanmielen
2025 outlook: The Rebels invested heavily in the transfer portal to make a run at an SEC championship this past season, but came up short and missed the CFP after a late loss at Florida. Ole Miss will undergo a big face-lift in 2025, with Dart and most of his top receivers leaving, as well as much of the offensive line. Pregame might not be as much fun in the Grove this fall. The defensive line will have a new look, with Umanmielen, Ivey, Nolen and JJ Pegues all departing. There are big losses in the secondary, too. Simmons, a left-handed passer, looked good in limited action in 2024. Kiffin is bringing in De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State), Deuce Alexander (Wake Forest) and Caleb Odom (Alabama) to replenish the receiver room. Pass rushers Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska) and Da’Shawn Womack (LSU) were important pickups on defense.
Teams also considered: Auburn, Texas Tech, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Duke, Washington, Nebraska, Iowa, Army, Colorado
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports10 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway