
‘If you don’t win, what’s the point?’ Yankees’ Aaron Judge seeks October redemption
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9 months agoon
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Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff WriterOct 7, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Close- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
NEW YORK — It’s been 11 years since the New York Yankees drafted Aaron Judge. Eleven years of the towering slugger absorbing the franchise’s unyielding championship doctrine. Eleven years, from A-ball in Charleston to the scorching lights in the Bronx, of striving to meet that standard. World Series or bust. Every year.
“There’s no other way to put it,” Judge said the morning of the Yankees’ regular-season finale. “Ever since I’ve been a Yankee, getting drafted in 2013, all that was ever engrained in my head or what we were taught is win in New York. Be a winner. Championship mindset. It’s just always been the way I was raised, even before I got here it was: If you don’t win, what’s the point?”
Judge has been a full-time major leaguer for eight years. By the Yankees’ definition, the first seven ended with failure — but the eighth might be his best shot to avoid it. The Yankees are in a prime position this October in large part thanks to Judge’s otherworldly regular-season feats.
After posting the best record in the American League and claiming home-field advantage until the World Series, the Yankees opened their postseason with a 6-5 win over the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Saturday.
Judge, however, went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and a walk to extend his personal October struggles. Since 2020, the likely AL MVP is 10-for-74 (.135) with five home runs and 28 strikeouts in 18 postseason games. His strikeout with runners on first and second in the sixth inning even induced a smattering of boos from the Yankee Stadium crowd after he heard them during his disappointing 2022 postseason performance.
The Yankees stand 10 wins from snapping a 15-year championship drought. But to accumulate those wins — and fill the biggest hole remaining in Judge’s legacy — Judge will need to flip his October fortunes.
“I think there’s no question that he’s one of the franchise’s greatest players,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said before the start of the series. “But he’s playing for that [World Series title] …That’s why he does this. Not to rack up personal accolades. So he embodies that. He lives that. And that’s what we’re all working to get to, and I’m sure that, obviously, winning it all would certainly add a level to his legacy.”
In baseball, one player can only carry his team so far. But Judge puts much of the Yankees’ recent title drought on himself.
“I like to take a lot of the weight when we don’t win,” Judge said. “I just feel like that’s the position I’m in. It comes down to me.”
Judge carried that burden in 2022, when he went 1-for-16 in the ALCS and the Yankees were swept by the Houston Astros. He finished the playoffs 5-for-36, inducing boos from the same home crowd he had delighted during his record-setting 62-home-run-season over the previous six months. He shouldered the load again a year ago, when, after missing nearly two months with a toe injury, the Yankees missed the postseason for the first time since Judge broke into the majors in a late-season 27-game cameo in 2016.
“Look I think Judgey first and foremost, just like all of us, has been through this a lot now,” Boone said. “We want to win a championship. That’s where the focus is. I know that’s where his focus is, and I feel like he’s in a really good spot right now. It’s not about individual stuff at all. This is about us going out and doing things to try and win baseball games and compete for a championship.”
“There’s a lot of unfinished business, man,” Judge said. “It drives me crazy in the offseason. During the season I try not to think about it. I try to take it day by day. But every year that we come up short, the offseason really isn’t that fun.”
Judge, 32, is on a path to Cooperstown. He is a six-time All-Star and the captain of one of the most famous sports franchises in the world. He has cemented his place inside Monument Park — starting with the 52 home runs and American League Rookie of the Year award in 2017, all the way to setting a new AL home run record in 2022. His No. 99 will someday join the long list of retired numbers honored there.
And this year, he was better than ever. He authored perhaps the greatest season by a right-handed hitter in MLB history, leading the majors in home runs (58), RBIs (144), on-base percentage (.458), slugging percentage (.701), walks (133), intentional walks (20), fWAR (11.2) and bWAR (10.8) while playing out of position in center field. He finished third in batting average (.322), fourth in runs scored (122) and eighth in hits (180). He partnered with newcomer Juan Soto to produce the game’s most prolific one-two punch since Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. He is the overwhelming favorite to win his second MVP Award.
Based on weighted runs created plus (wRC+), a metric that attempts to qualify a player’s offensive value while controlling for park effects and run environment, Judge recorded the seventh-best offensive season in MLB history. The only players with better outputs than Judge’s 218 wRC+ were left-handed: Barry Bonds (three times), Ruth (twice) and Ted Williams (once).
Zoom out and Judge’s 173 career wRC+ is tied with Bonds for third in MLB history, behind Ruth and Williams. It’s been a career almost anybody would describe as fulfilling.
And yet, if you ask Judge, he balks. “We play to win, so … ” Judge said.
But can’t you still have a great career without winning a championship?
“Yeah, but that’s not why I play,” Judge said. “I don’t play for, whatever, Player of the Month or MVP. That’s not why you play. You play to be the last team holding up the trophy, where you look back at all your teammates and just think of the hard work that you put in all year and have that connection.”
Judge sees that connection every summer, just before the 162-game marathon’s final stretch, when the Yankees hold Old Timers’ Day. This year, the festivities celebrated the 2009 Yankees, the last Yankees team to win it all. Among the players from that team who attended were Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, plus Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia, Hideki Matsui, Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon.
Jeter described Judge’s season as “amazing” and marveled over his seemingly impossible improvement. Rodriguez called him a “unicorn” who will eventually become a World Series champion with his sheer determination.
But does he need a title to complete his legacy?
“I think he’s going to have a legacy whether he wins or not because he’s a special player,” Joe Girardi, the 2009 team’s manager, said. “But I think, personally, it would mean a lot to him, the work that he’s put in and the work that his teammates — because there’s nothing like being a champion. There’s a bond that’s created for life. You do not see guys for years and you come back and you feel like you just saw them the day before.
“So I think for that part of it, you would love to see it happen. You would love to see it happen to such a great player that has such an impact on a game, but it takes so many more players. One guy can’t do it. Two guys can’t do it. It takes a ton. And I hope it happens for him.”
Soto won a ring five days after his 21st birthday. He was a force during the Washington Nationals‘ improbable World Series run in 2019, slugging five home runs with a .927 OPS in 17 postseason games, surrounded by a star-studded cast. He has seen Judge’s hunger for a championship up close since reporting for spring training in February.
“He always talks about [winning a championship],” Soto said. “He always, from the first day that I got here, he’s always talked about how he wants to win a championship, how he wants us to win a championship, how he wants to win a championship for the Yankees and be part of the history.”
This year’s Yankees are far from perfect. They are susceptible to sloppiness. They have holes on defense. The numbers indicated they were the worst baserunning team in the majors during the regular season.
But the path to a pennant is favorable. The Astros, the Yankees’ postseason nemesis over the last decade, have been sent home, leaving three low-payroll AL Central challengers between them and the World Series. The Yankees, on paper, are the favorites with a talented ensemble around Judge, whose growth as clubhouse leader has helped integrate the various personalities in the room.
Last month, with the Yankees stuck in neutral, unable to separate themselves from the middling Baltimore Orioles atop the AL East, Judge called a players-only meeting in Texas. The Yankees went 12-6 over the next three weeks to build a six-game cushion in the standings.
“I try not to do it too much,” Judge said. “I mean, things aren’t going too well if you’re doing that a lot. So, usually good teams don’t have too many meetings like that. When it’s needed, you’ve got to do it. You got to step up and do some things like that.”
Now it’s about stepping up on the field when it matters most. Seven years after falling a game short of the World Series in Judge’s rookie season, 11 years after Judge joined the organization, the Yankees have a great chance to win World Series No. 28. It’ll take Judge being Judge to make it happen.
“Wearing pinstripes here in New York, it’s about the World Series, so it makes it simple for us, what to focus on,” Judge said. “You may have a good year, but it’s not really a good year unless you won it all.”
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Kiley McDaniel’s favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects
Published
3 hours agoon
July 14, 2025By
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Kiley McDanielJul 14, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- ESPN MLB Insider
- Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
- Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
With Day 1 of the 2025 MLB draft complete, it’s time to look at which picks in the first round stood out most.
After weeks of speculation about the various directions the Washington Nationals could go with the No. 1 pick, they surprised the industry by taking Oklahoma high school shortstop Eli Willits — and the Los Angeles Angels followed up with a surprising pick of their own at No. 2 by taking UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner
Though the nature of the baseball draft means that some of the picks we aren’t quite sure about on Day 1 will become clearer when we see how teams spread their bonus allotment around later in the draft, here are the early picks I liked the most and some eye-opening selections along with the top players still available entering Day 2.
Five favorite moves
Mariners and Pirates get their guys
The buzz leading up to the draft was that Kade Anderson was atop the Mariners’ draft board and Seth Hernandez was the top target (after Willits, who wasn’t going to get there) of the Pirates. Seattle was the other team taking a long look at Hernandez, but the shenanigans at the top two picks (more on that later) means that both Seattle and Pittsburgh got their preferred arms.
A’s select Arnold and Taylor
The Athletics had only two picks on Day 1 but received excellent values at each. Jamie Arnold was the top prospect in the draft entering the season and seemed primed to go somewhere between No. 2 and No. 8 after an uneven season. He somehow was the prospect left holding the short straw, falling to the 11th pick. Devin Taylor was in the mix at multiple picks in the comp round but lasted five selections into the second round.
Twins embrace risk with Quick and Young
The Twins took two hit-first college infielders as their first picks last year (Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge), took another one in the 2023 second round (Luke Keaschall), and two more in the top two rounds in 2022 (Brooks Lee, Tanner Schobel) — and also took one with their first pick this year in Marek Houston.
What interested me though is what Minnesota did after that, taking big swings with the upside of Riley Quick (four potential plus pitches but below-average command) and Quentin Young (80-grade power potential with big questions on contact rate).
Phillies try to jump the reliever trade market?
Gage Wood has a chance to start long term but can also go straight to the upper minors — if not the big leagues — and potentially help the bullpen later this season, like a trade deadline addition. The Phillies’ next pick, Cade Obermueller, is another possible starter who also could move quickly as a lefty turning 22 later this month with two knockout pitches in his fastball/slider combo. Odds are good that at least one of them can provide big league value in the next 12 months if Philly wants to utilize them that way.
The Red Sox land Witherspoon, Phillips and Eyanson
The Red Sox are interested in creating more pitching depth and selected a number of interesting arms on Day 1. Kyson Witherspoon had a lot of interest in the top 10, but the Red Sox got him at No. 15.
He’ll need to sharpen his execution a notch and his short arm action is unique, but there’s midrotation upside. Marcus Phillips has a chance to start but could also bring another distinctive look as a late-inning arm with four plus pitches from a low slot and a triple-digit fastball. Anthony Eyanson is a different sort, with fringy fastball velocity but standout command along with a slider and splitter that keep hitters off-balance.
Five eye-openers
Eli Willits at No. 1
The buzz ahead of the draft was that there were three players in play for the top pick and Willits was my third-ranked player in the class, so the same group is what I would’ve been considering — and I love Willits as a player. The bonus will be a factor in evaluating how successful this pick will be viewed — I’ll guess it starts with an eight — but I think this will be seen as a solid decision, as long as Kade Anderson or Ethan Holliday don’t become stars.
Tyler Bremner at No. 2
The biggest piece of late buzz I was hearing is that Bremner was in play at No. 3 to the Mariners. I didn’t hear his name at all at No. 2 so that made this pick the first shocker in the draft.
Bremner was considered in this area (on a deal) because he could easily be the best pitcher in this class — but only if he can develop a better slider, which isn’t a small if. The Angels seem to have a thought about how to solve this, and how he progresses will be one of the more followed storylines of this draft.
Tigers take Yost and Oliveto
I like both players, but it’s fascinating that these two and the most-rumored prep hitter tied to Detroit that they didn’t take (Coy James, who had a tough summer) were all missing strong 2024 summer performances.
Jordan Yost and Michael Oliveto were the only two prep position players in the first-round mix who weren’t in the major national events on the summer circuit, thus creating a lot of uncertainty about how to project them.
The Tigers are right to assume this could create a potential quick gain in value if Yost and Oliveto can perform early in their pro careers, but I don’t remember seeing a team double down on lack of summer exposure in the early rounds.
Orioles take two catchers in the first round, and two pitchers in the second
It’s certainly a bit odd that the Orioles took two college catchers with their first two picks after taking another one (Ethan Anderson) in the second round last year. Obviously, teams don’t draft for big league need — the O’s already have Adley Rutschman — and they need at least two catchers at all four full season minor league affiliates, it’s just odd to see them invest in this position early multiple times. And after all of the position players they have drafted under Mike Elias, they did sneak in two arms on Day 1 with Joseph Dzierwa (a command-forward lefty) and J.T. Quinn (one of my favorite college relievers with the traits to start in pro ball).
Guardians lean into power
The Guardians often draft, or sign internationally, hit-first players who are often underpowered, with Steven Kwan a prominent example. They swerved a lot this year, taking Jace LaViolette with their first pick (I compare him to Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo; he hit .258 this season) and Nolan Schubart (24% strikeout rate, 22% in-zone whiff rate) with their fifth pick on Day 1. Those two have big power and strong pull/lift rates, and LaViolette has the athleticism to play center field, so there’s real talent, it’s just not usually the type that the Guardians have targeted.
Best available for Day 2
Listed by top 250 draft rankings
43. Mason Neville, OF, Oregon
44. Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Ind.)
53. Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (Calif.)
55. Brock Sell, CF, Tokay HS (Calif.)
61. Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (Ill.)
69. Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (N.C.)
70. Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (Calif.)
71. Mason Pike, RHP, Puyallup HS (Wash.)
72. Cam Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (Ill.)
73. Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (N.C.)
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Shocks at No. 1 — and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1
Published
12 hours agoon
July 14, 2025By
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Multiple Contributors
Jul 13, 2025, 11:00 PM ET
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
Sports
2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?
Published
15 hours agoon
July 14, 2025By
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The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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Sports3 years ago
‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
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Sports1 year ago
Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
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Sports2 years ago
Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
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Sports2 years ago
MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
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Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
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Sports2 years ago
Button battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
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Environment2 years ago
Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
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Environment2 years ago
Game-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike