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The 2024 MLB playoffs are down to just four teams after an exciting division series round saw the New York Mets eliminate the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers defeat their division rivals, the San Diego Padres, in a thrilling win-or-go-home Game 5.

Now that the matchups are set — Mets-Dodgers and Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees — it’s time for some (more) predictions! We asked our MLB experts to weigh in on who will advance to the World Series, which players will earn MVP honors in the league championship series and the themes we’ll all be talking about in the week to come. We’ll also have our experts explain why their initial Fall Classic predictions are still in play — or went very wrong.

LCS previews: Mets-Dodgers | Guardians-Yankees | Bracket

Jump to: NLCS | ALCS | Predictions we got right | … and wrong |


National League Championship Series

Los Angeles Dodgers (7 votes)

In how many games: Seven games (2 votes), six games (3), five games (2)

MVP if Dodgers win: Shohei Ohtani (5), Mookie Betts (1), Teoscar Hernandez (1)

Who picked the Dodgers: Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Eric Karabell, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney, David Schoenfield


New York Mets (6 votes)

In how many games: Seven games (4 votes), six games (2)

MVP if Mets win: Francisco Lindor (2), Sean Manaea (1), Starling Marte (1), Brandon Nimmo (1), Mark Vientos (1)

Who picked the Mets: Jorge Castillo, Paul Hembekides, Tim Keown, Kiley McDaniel, Jesse Rogers, Jeff Passan


The one thing we’ll all be talking about:

The Mets’ unbelievable ride to the World Series has included beating a division rival (Braves) to clinch their playoff berth, dismissing David Stearns’ former employer (Brewers) in the NL Wild Card Series, and eliminating another division rival and NL pennant favorite (Phillies) in the NLDS. They’ll add defeating the organization Steve Cohen has openly said he has hoped to replicate since buying the Mets before bidding to overthrow their big brother in the Bronx. — Castillo

As much early attention as there will be on the Ohtani vs. Lindor showdown, ultimately the focus is going to end up on Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Whether he makes good decisions or not is pretty much irrelevant. Either the Dodgers come up short again, or they don’t. This of course is not fair, and beating the Padres helped, but Roberts isn’t out of the woods yet. — Doolittle

Walker Buehler is back. It has been a struggle in his return from a second Tommy John surgery, but Buehler actually looked pretty good in Game 3 of the NLDS. He experienced one awful, six-run second inning in which he was mostly let down by his defense but still managed to get through the fifth, freeing up a bullpen game the following night. Buehler loves this stage. And he lines up for Games 2 and 6 at Dodger Stadium. He’ll deliver. — Gonzalez

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, and hearing the postgame interviews of the Dodgers, how could anyone have ever wondered if they would win? The gritty, gutty, respectful Dodgers work against all disadvantages stacked before them and win in 5. — Olney

With Freddie Freeman hobbled — presumably for the rest of the postseason — the onus on Ohtani to produce atop the Dodgers’ lineup is greater than ever. After a strong Game 1 of the division series, Ohtani struggled. He will be squarely in the middle of every conversation about the Dodgers, with the primary question being: Can Ohtani carry the Dodgers to the World Series in his first season with the team? — Passan

Just how incredible the trio of Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana continue to pitch. They’ll give the Dodgers fits – and we won’t exactly understand how they’re doing it. — Rogers

Ohtani. We’re going to be talking about the five home runs Ohtani hits in the series — including the go-ahead blast in Game 7. — Schoenfield


American League Championship Series

New York Yankees (11 votes)

In how many games: Seven games (4 votes), six games (6), five games (1)

MVP if Yankees win: Aaron Judge (7), Juan Soto (3), Gerrit Cole (1)

Who picked the Yankees: Jorge Castillo, Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Paul Hembekides, Eric Karabell, Tim Keown, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Jeff Passan


Cleveland Guardians (1 vote)

In how many games: Seven games (1)

MVP if Guardians win: Jose Ramirez

Who picked the Guardians: David Schoenfield

The one thing we’ll all be talking about:

The first Subway Series in nearly a quarter-century will arrive with a juicy subplot: ALCS MVP Juan Soto going against the team most everyone believes will be the Yankees’ competition for his services this winter. — Castillo

No matter what happens, the spotlight will be on Aaron Judge. If he goes off, then it’s how he overcame his postseason struggles. If he doesn’t, it’ll be how those struggles have persisted. I wish this didn’t have to be discussed every single time the camera finds Judge during the game, but only he can make it stop. — Doolittle

Here’s one thing we won’t be talking about: Aaron Judge’s slump. Much like he shook off a rough April to put together an MVP regular season, Judge will emerge from a sluggish ALDS — in which he went 2-for-13 with one extra-base hit — to carry the Yankees into the World Series. — Gonzalez

How much can Stephen Vogt get out of his bullpen? The Guardians’ greatest strength this season has been the impermeability of the late innings on account of a tremendous group of relievers, and Vogt leaned on them heavily. Cade Smith ranked fifth in the AL in innings pitched among relievers. Hunter Gaddis was sixth and Emmanuel Clase eighth. Vogt’s ability to ride his relief arms will continue to be the question about the Guardians until their season concludes. — Passan

How much money Juan Soto is going to make. He’ll be key against the Guardians righties in his best playoff series to date. That include a bunch of walks but, hey, getting on is getting on. — Rogers

How the vaunted Cleveland bullpen shut down Aaron Judge and Juan Soto to carry the Guardians to the World Series. — Schoenfield


World Series predictions we’re right about — so far

David Schoenfield: Hey, I had the Dodgers-Guardians at the start of the playoffs — when everyone else was jumping on the Padres bandwagon. Considering the Dodgers advanced without Ohtani doing much, it feels like it’s time for him to have a monster series to carry the Dodgers to the World Series — as the bullpen will do for Cleveland.

Kiley McDaniel: I had the Dodgers in the World Series, but the only problem is … I had them losing to the Orioles. I thought the AL was wide open and leaned toward youth, a deep lineup and an ace, while the NL basically would play out chalk. I’m better at predicting prospects than the playoffs, especially when the series are three- and five-gamers thus far.


World Series predictions gone wrong

Jorge Castillo: Astros over Phillies. I believed the Astros’ experience and starting rotation would carry them through the wide-open American League. Turns out, neither matters much in a three-game series against a red-hot team. As for the Phillies, who could’ve predicted their bats would disappear? Picking against the Mets is foolish at this point.

Tristan Cockcroft: Padres over Yankees. Whether it had happened in the division or championship series — heads up, MLB, you should really restore reseeding to the playoff bracket — Padres-Dodgers was a matchup I regarded as a top-notch league championship, and the Padres got close — within two runs in the deciding game. These Mets have impressed me in October, and it’d sure be fun to forecast another Subway Series, but too many of these feel-good playoff stories tend to run out of gas a little in advance of the finish line.

Alden Gonzalez: I had the Astros and the Padres facing off in the World Series, and neither advanced to their respective championship series. While coming up short, both teams emphasized an important point about October baseball: Even the best offenses can go cold if you have detailed game plans and throw an assortment of high-leverage arms at them.

Eric Karabell: Obviously it was silly to predict a 2022 World Series rematch, so let’s go with 1977, 1978 and 1981 instead. Enjoy, traditionalists!

Tim Keown: Turns out the Padres fell a couple of rounds short of beating the Yankees in the World Series, as I predicted, but who doesn’t love a Subway Series? It doesn’t seem likely the Dodgers — despite their bullpen mastery in the NLDS — can cobble together enough pitching to win a seven-game series.

Jeff Passan: Phillies over Astros. The less said about my World Series prediction the better. I’ll leave it at this: I did not anticipate four relievers with a collective ERA of 2.20 during the regular season — Carlos Estevez, Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman and Orion Kerkering — posting a 12.10 ERA in the postseason.

Jesse Rogers: Phillies over TK. My World Series pick went out quickly, which means the team that beat it should be taken seriously. And it helps that the $300 million Mets can play the underdog card again simply because they’re facing the Dodgers. I’ll also lean into this trend: The team that has beaten Milwaukee in the playoffs always wins the pennant. That’s the Mets.

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Freeman confident in QB Carr’s future after loss

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Freeman confident in QB Carr's future after loss

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — There were a couple things going through Marcus Freeman’s head when he saw CJ Carr scampering around to extend the play then finding receiver Micah Gilbert in the end zone for the quarterback’s first collegiate touchdown.

“Throw it away! Throw it away! Throw it away!” Freeman, Notre Dame’s head coach, recalled repeating in his head after the game. “I couldn’t see exactly what was going on. I watched him spin out. And usually when you’re feeling pressure it’s like, ‘Throw the ball the away! Don’t throw the ball across our body! He kept his eyes down field and made a play.

“We don’t draw them up like that. But those are plays that CJ Carr can make.”

Carr had an uneven performance in No. 6 Notre Dame’s 27-24 loss to No. 10 Miami on Sunday night, but that touchdown pass — which tied it at 7 in the second quarter — was an example of the playmaking ability that won the freshman quarterback the starting job. And that gave Freeman confidence in Carr’s ability to respond strongly to Sunday’s loss, and potentially lead Notre Dame back to the national title game.

Carr hadn’t thrown a collegiate pass before Sunday — he appeared in one game last year, mop-up duty in a 66-7 rout at Purdue — but nearly helped the Fighting Irish rally from a 14-point deficit against the Hurricanes. The 20-year-old finished 19-of-30 for 221 yards with two touchdown passes and an interception, along with a rushing score with 3:21 left that tied the game.

“His ceiling is so high,” Freeman said. “He’s going to have to take this loss and not let it eat at him too much. He’s a gamer. He performs when the lights are on. He prepares his tail off. He’s going to do great things. It’s just the start for him.”

Freeman said part of the offensive gameplan was to create easy decisions and throws to help Carr establish a rhythm, heavily leaning on the run-pass option. Freeman added that Carr was making the right reads on the RPOs early, but as the game went on, the young quarterback needed to hand the ball to dynamic running back Jeremiyah Love to help establish the run game.

Love, who many believe will be the centerpiece to Notre Dame’s offense, finished with 10 carries for 33 yards and caught four passes for 26 yards, but there were times in the game that he was barely involved in the offense. The Fighting Irish were outgained on the ground 119-93.

“I need to continue to get a better feel for what our offense needs at the moment,” Carr said. “A lot of the time, it’s going to be Jeremiyah Love. On the pick, I should have just given him the ball. It cost us.”

Carr this year replaces former Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard, who led the Irish to 13 straight wins last season before falling 34-23 to Ohio State in the CFP national championship game. Leonard was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts in April.

He’s from a family with a rich football pedigree — his father, Jason, was a quarterback at Michigan — and he knows how to respond to a loss.

“Tonight wasn’t good enough out of me specifically,” Carr said. “We’ve got to get better. My dad always said the only way to get rid of a loss is with a win.”

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‘Whatever it takes’: Canes top Irish in showdown

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'Whatever it takes': Canes top Irish in showdown

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Notre Dame had one last chance to beat Miami, 1:04 left on the clock, redshirt freshman CJ Carr charged with driving the Irish down the field.

Miami coach Mario Cristobal surveyed the field from the opposite sideline. He had a feeling his stalwart defensive ends, Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, would come through and take advantage of the tired Irish offensive line.

Sure enough, Mesidor and Bain came up with sacks on back-to-back plays to end the game, sealing the No. 10 Hurricanes’ raucous 27-24 victory over No. 6 Notre Dame on Sunday night.

“You know the old saying, these are heavyweight bouts, and rounds 11 through 15 are going to separate the winners and the guys that don’t win it,” Cristobal said. “So we knew it was going to somehow, some way, get to this, and we just felt that if we were tired, that they were going to be more tired. And that was a chance at ‘whatever it takes mentality,’ and going to get it done.”

Perhaps even more gratifying was watching the Miami defense make the plays to seal a game. Last season, the Hurricanes lost a chance to play in the ACC championship game after blowing a 21-0 lead to Syracuse to end the regular season. Cristobal made staff changes, bringing in new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman to revamp not just the scheme but the attitude with which Miami played.

Injuries hampered Mesidor and Bain last season. But leading into the matchup with Notre Dame, both talked about feeling healthy and ready to play well in the new aggressive scheme that would allow them to make plays.

“We go through the two-minute drill every single day in the hot sun,” Mesidor said. “When the lights are up, and it’s cool outside, and when the moment is right, we’re going to get after it.”

He then referenced their uniform numbers. Mesidor wears No. 3 and Bain wears No. 4.

“Three and four all day,” Mesidor said.

“All day!” Bain said in response. “Best in the nation.”

Both players said it did not go unnoticed that Notre Dame was the favorite in the game. Bain showed his cellphone lock screen during his postgame news conference, with a screen grab of an article that, he said, had negative things to say about him.

Perhaps that provided a little extra motivation. But it seemed renewing a rivalry with the Irish was motivation enough. Scores of former players and coaches, including Jimmy Johnson, Michael Irvin, Devin Hester and Ray Lewis, stood on the sideline in one of the most anticipated home season openers in recent memory.

Carson Beck made his debut for the Hurricanes, after transferring from Georgia, and helped get his team in position for the game-winning score after Notre Dame erased a two-touchdown lead and tied the game at 24 with 3:21 remaining.

Miami had dominated up front for a majority of the game, but after scoring on the opening drive of the third quarter, the play calling turned conservative, and the Hurricanes mustered 15 yards on their ensuing four drives.

Beck said he told his teammates when they got the ball back they were going to go down the field and score. He opened the drive with a completion to CJ Daniels, who wowed earlier in the game with a one-handed leaping 20-yard touchdown catch to give Miami the lead at halftime. From there, Miami handed off to CharMar Brown, who got the Hurricanes into field goal range.

That set up transfer kicker Carter Davis to line up for a 47-yard field goal attempt. Davis beat out two other kickers to win the starting job but had spent the bulk of his career as a kickoff specialist. Headed into Sunday night, he had gone 4-of-11 in his career on field goal attempts.

Beck said he was nervous as he saw Davis line up. Davis said he went through his mental checklist, trying not to let the sold-out crowd get to him.

“Once I looked up at it and I saw it was in, I’d say my heartbeat skipped, plus accelerated, because I was just so excited for it,” Davis said.

Beck finished 20-of-31 for 205 yards with two touchdowns. Carr, making his first career start, made some gutty plays throughout the course of the game — including a diving 7-yard run to tie the game up. But with the game on the line, he was unable to even get an opportunity for a score, thanks to the Miami defense.

Notre Dame has now lost seven straight road games to Miami.

“Tonight wasn’t good enough out of me, specifically. We’ve got to get better,” Carr said.

Coach Marcus Freeman said, “Every goal we have is ahead of us,” but added that the Irish have to play better on the offensive and defensive lines. The Irish had one sack and struggled to get after Beck.

“You’re not going to be really successful on defense if you can’t get pressure on the quarterback with four-man rushes,” Freeman said.

Miami did that, particularly at the end of the game, when it stepped the pressure up on Carr. The result was its first win over an AP Top 10 opponent since beating No. 3 Notre Dame 41-8 in 2017.

“It’s just an unbelievable night for so many people that poured so much into this,” Cristobal said. “Just grateful to be in this opportunity and really hungry and driven [for] the next one.”

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Verlander earns win No. 265 with 121-pitch effort

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Verlander earns win No. 265 with 121-pitch effort

SAN FRANCISCO — Wins have been hard to come by for Justin Verlander this year.

This one took 121 pitches.

The 42-year-old right-hander struck out 10 in five scoreless innings Sunday, helping the San Francisco Giants to a 13-2 rout of the Baltimore Orioles. With the Giants leading 7-0 in the fifth, San Francisco wasn’t about to remove Verlander, even as his pitch count climbed. He finally finished the top of that inning by striking out Gunnar Henderson and Ryan Mountcastle — and that allowed him to qualify for his third victory of the year.

It’s the 265th win of his career.

“In a day you feel like you’re penalizing someone if they throw 100 pitches, to throw 120 in five innings, he didn’t want to hear anything about coming out of the game,” manager Bob Melvin told the San Francisco Chronicle. “There’s a lot to learn from him.”

It was the second-most pitches thrown in the majors this season. Cleveland‘s Gavin Williams threw 126 on Aug. 6 against the New York Mets. Williams took a no-hitter into the ninth that day.

Verlander is just 3-10 on the season, but he lowered his ERA to 4.29 on Sunday and reached double-digit strikeouts for the 73rd time in his career. He allowed three hits and four walks.

“It’s hard for me because, especially the old school in me is, it’s only five innings,” Verlander said. “I’m not sure I go home and say that was a great start. End of day, I think they did a great job battling off good pitches and fouling off stuff.”

Verlander was winless in his first 16 starts for the Giants after joining them in the offseason. But now the three-time Cy Young Award winner has won two starts in a row. He also beat the Chicago Cubs earlier in the week.

This was his first 10-strikeout game since Aug. 23, 2022, when he was with Houston. The last time he threw this many pitches was June 19, 2018, when he threw 122 for the Astros against Tampa Bay.

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