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The 2024 MLB playoffs are down to just four teams after an exciting division series round saw the New York Mets eliminate the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers defeat their division rivals, the San Diego Padres, in a thrilling win-or-go-home Game 5.

Now that the matchups are set — Mets-Dodgers and Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees — it’s time for some (more) predictions! We asked our MLB experts to weigh in on who will advance to the World Series, which players will earn MVP honors in the league championship series and the themes we’ll all be talking about in the week to come. We’ll also have our experts explain why their initial Fall Classic predictions are still in play — or went very wrong.

LCS previews: Mets-Dodgers | Guardians-Yankees | Bracket

Jump to: NLCS | ALCS | Predictions we got right | … and wrong |


National League Championship Series

Los Angeles Dodgers (7 votes)

In how many games: Seven games (2 votes), six games (3), five games (2)

MVP if Dodgers win: Shohei Ohtani (5), Mookie Betts (1), Teoscar Hernandez (1)

Who picked the Dodgers: Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Eric Karabell, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney, David Schoenfield


New York Mets (6 votes)

In how many games: Seven games (4 votes), six games (2)

MVP if Mets win: Francisco Lindor (2), Sean Manaea (1), Starling Marte (1), Brandon Nimmo (1), Mark Vientos (1)

Who picked the Mets: Jorge Castillo, Paul Hembekides, Tim Keown, Kiley McDaniel, Jesse Rogers, Jeff Passan


The one thing we’ll all be talking about:

The Mets’ unbelievable ride to the World Series has included beating a division rival (Braves) to clinch their playoff berth, dismissing David Stearns’ former employer (Brewers) in the NL Wild Card Series, and eliminating another division rival and NL pennant favorite (Phillies) in the NLDS. They’ll add defeating the organization Steve Cohen has openly said he has hoped to replicate since buying the Mets before bidding to overthrow their big brother in the Bronx. — Castillo

As much early attention as there will be on the Ohtani vs. Lindor showdown, ultimately the focus is going to end up on Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Whether he makes good decisions or not is pretty much irrelevant. Either the Dodgers come up short again, or they don’t. This of course is not fair, and beating the Padres helped, but Roberts isn’t out of the woods yet. — Doolittle

Walker Buehler is back. It has been a struggle in his return from a second Tommy John surgery, but Buehler actually looked pretty good in Game 3 of the NLDS. He experienced one awful, six-run second inning in which he was mostly let down by his defense but still managed to get through the fifth, freeing up a bullpen game the following night. Buehler loves this stage. And he lines up for Games 2 and 6 at Dodger Stadium. He’ll deliver. — Gonzalez

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, and hearing the postgame interviews of the Dodgers, how could anyone have ever wondered if they would win? The gritty, gutty, respectful Dodgers work against all disadvantages stacked before them and win in 5. — Olney

With Freddie Freeman hobbled — presumably for the rest of the postseason — the onus on Ohtani to produce atop the Dodgers’ lineup is greater than ever. After a strong Game 1 of the division series, Ohtani struggled. He will be squarely in the middle of every conversation about the Dodgers, with the primary question being: Can Ohtani carry the Dodgers to the World Series in his first season with the team? — Passan

Just how incredible the trio of Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana continue to pitch. They’ll give the Dodgers fits – and we won’t exactly understand how they’re doing it. — Rogers

Ohtani. We’re going to be talking about the five home runs Ohtani hits in the series — including the go-ahead blast in Game 7. — Schoenfield


American League Championship Series

New York Yankees (11 votes)

In how many games: Seven games (4 votes), six games (6), five games (1)

MVP if Yankees win: Aaron Judge (7), Juan Soto (3), Gerrit Cole (1)

Who picked the Yankees: Jorge Castillo, Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Paul Hembekides, Eric Karabell, Tim Keown, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Jeff Passan


Cleveland Guardians (1 vote)

In how many games: Seven games (1)

MVP if Guardians win: Jose Ramirez

Who picked the Guardians: David Schoenfield

The one thing we’ll all be talking about:

The first Subway Series in nearly a quarter-century will arrive with a juicy subplot: ALCS MVP Juan Soto going against the team most everyone believes will be the Yankees’ competition for his services this winter. — Castillo

No matter what happens, the spotlight will be on Aaron Judge. If he goes off, then it’s how he overcame his postseason struggles. If he doesn’t, it’ll be how those struggles have persisted. I wish this didn’t have to be discussed every single time the camera finds Judge during the game, but only he can make it stop. — Doolittle

Here’s one thing we won’t be talking about: Aaron Judge’s slump. Much like he shook off a rough April to put together an MVP regular season, Judge will emerge from a sluggish ALDS — in which he went 2-for-13 with one extra-base hit — to carry the Yankees into the World Series. — Gonzalez

How much can Stephen Vogt get out of his bullpen? The Guardians’ greatest strength this season has been the impermeability of the late innings on account of a tremendous group of relievers, and Vogt leaned on them heavily. Cade Smith ranked fifth in the AL in innings pitched among relievers. Hunter Gaddis was sixth and Emmanuel Clase eighth. Vogt’s ability to ride his relief arms will continue to be the question about the Guardians until their season concludes. — Passan

How much money Juan Soto is going to make. He’ll be key against the Guardians righties in his best playoff series to date. That include a bunch of walks but, hey, getting on is getting on. — Rogers

How the vaunted Cleveland bullpen shut down Aaron Judge and Juan Soto to carry the Guardians to the World Series. — Schoenfield


World Series predictions we’re right about — so far

David Schoenfield: Hey, I had the Dodgers-Guardians at the start of the playoffs — when everyone else was jumping on the Padres bandwagon. Considering the Dodgers advanced without Ohtani doing much, it feels like it’s time for him to have a monster series to carry the Dodgers to the World Series — as the bullpen will do for Cleveland.

Kiley McDaniel: I had the Dodgers in the World Series, but the only problem is … I had them losing to the Orioles. I thought the AL was wide open and leaned toward youth, a deep lineup and an ace, while the NL basically would play out chalk. I’m better at predicting prospects than the playoffs, especially when the series are three- and five-gamers thus far.


World Series predictions gone wrong

Jorge Castillo: Astros over Phillies. I believed the Astros’ experience and starting rotation would carry them through the wide-open American League. Turns out, neither matters much in a three-game series against a red-hot team. As for the Phillies, who could’ve predicted their bats would disappear? Picking against the Mets is foolish at this point.

Tristan Cockcroft: Padres over Yankees. Whether it had happened in the division or championship series — heads up, MLB, you should really restore reseeding to the playoff bracket — Padres-Dodgers was a matchup I regarded as a top-notch league championship, and the Padres got close — within two runs in the deciding game. These Mets have impressed me in October, and it’d sure be fun to forecast another Subway Series, but too many of these feel-good playoff stories tend to run out of gas a little in advance of the finish line.

Alden Gonzalez: I had the Astros and the Padres facing off in the World Series, and neither advanced to their respective championship series. While coming up short, both teams emphasized an important point about October baseball: Even the best offenses can go cold if you have detailed game plans and throw an assortment of high-leverage arms at them.

Eric Karabell: Obviously it was silly to predict a 2022 World Series rematch, so let’s go with 1977, 1978 and 1981 instead. Enjoy, traditionalists!

Tim Keown: Turns out the Padres fell a couple of rounds short of beating the Yankees in the World Series, as I predicted, but who doesn’t love a Subway Series? It doesn’t seem likely the Dodgers — despite their bullpen mastery in the NLDS — can cobble together enough pitching to win a seven-game series.

Jeff Passan: Phillies over Astros. The less said about my World Series prediction the better. I’ll leave it at this: I did not anticipate four relievers with a collective ERA of 2.20 during the regular season — Carlos Estevez, Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman and Orion Kerkering — posting a 12.10 ERA in the postseason.

Jesse Rogers: Phillies over TK. My World Series pick went out quickly, which means the team that beat it should be taken seriously. And it helps that the $300 million Mets can play the underdog card again simply because they’re facing the Dodgers. I’ll also lean into this trend: The team that has beaten Milwaukee in the playoffs always wins the pennant. That’s the Mets.

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Red Sox deal All-Star Devers to Giants in stunner

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Red Sox deal All-Star Devers to Giants in stunner

The San Francisco Giants acquired three-time All-Star Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox on Sunday in a stunning trade that sent a player Boston once considered a franchise cornerstone to a San Francisco team needing an offensive infusion.

Boston received left-handed starter Kyle Harrison, right-hander Jordan Hicks, outfield prospect James Tibbs III and Rookie League right-hander Jose Bello.

The Red Sox announced the deal Sunday evening.

The Giants will cover the remainder of Devers’ contract, which runs through 2033 and will pay him more than $250 million, sources told ESPN.

The trade ends the fractured relationship between Devers and the Red Sox that had degraded since spring training, when Devers balked at moving off third base — the position where he had spent his whole career — after the signing of free agent Alex Bregman. The Red Sox gave no forewarning to Devers, who expressed frustration before relenting and agreeing to be their designated hitter.

After a season-ending injury to first baseman Triston Casas in early May, the Red Sox asked Devers to move to first base. Devers declined, suggesting the front office “should do their jobs” and find another player after the organization told him during spring training he would be the DH for the remainder of the season. The day after Devers’ comments, Red Sox owner John Henry, president Sam Kennedy and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow flew to Kansas City, where Boston was playing, to talk with Devers.

In the weeks since, Devers’ refusal to play first led to internal tension and helped facilitate the deal, sources said.

San Francisco pounced — and added a force to an offense that ranks 15th in runs scored in Major League Baseball. Devers, 28, is hitting .272/.401/.504 with 15 home runs and 58 RBIs, tied for the third most in MLB. Over his nine-year career, Devers is hitting .279/.349/.509 with 215 home runs and 696 RBIs in 1,053 games.

Boston believed enough in Devers to give him a 10-year, $313.5 million contract extension in January 2023. He rewarded the Red Sox with a Silver Slugger Award that season and made his third All-Star team in 2024.

Whether he slots in at designated hitter or first base with San Francisco — the Giants signed Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman to a six-year, $151 million deal last year — is unknown. But San Francisco sought Devers more for his bat, one that immediately makes the Giants — who are fighting for National League West supremacy with the Los Angeles Dodgers — a better team.

To do so, the Giants gave a package of young talent and took on the contract that multiple teams’ models had as underwater.

Harrison, 23, is the prize of the deal, particularly for a Red Sox team replete with young hitting talent but starving for young pitching. Once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Harrison has shuttled between San Francisco and Triple-A Sacramento this season.

Harrison, who was scratched from a planned start against the Dodgers on Sunday night, has a 4.48 ERA over 182⅔ innings since debuting with the Giants in 2023. He has struck out 178, walked 62 and allowed 30 home runs. The Red Sox optioned Harrison to Triple-A Worcester after the trade was announced.

Hicks, 28, who has toggled between starter and reliever since signing with the Giants for four years and $44 million before the 2024 season, is on the injured list because of right toe inflammation. One of the hardest-throwing pitchers in baseball, Hicks has a 6.47 ERA over 48⅔ innings this season. He could join the Red Sox’s ailing bullpen, which Breslow has sought to upgrade.

Tibbs, 22, was selected by the Giants with the 13th pick in last year’s draft out of Florida State. A 6-foot, 200-pound corner outfielder, Tibbs has spent the season at High-A, where he has hit .245/.377/.480 with 12 home runs and 32 RBIs in 56 games. Scouts laud his command of the strike zone — he has 41 walks and 45 strikeouts in 252 plate appearances — but question whether his swing will translate at higher levels.

Bello, 20, has spent the season as a reliever for the Giants’ Rookie League affiliate. In 18 innings, he has struck out 28 and walked three while posting a 2.00 ERA.

The deal is the latest in which Boston shipped a player central to the franchise.

Boston traded Mookie Betts to the Dodgers in February 2020, just more than a year after leading Boston to a franchise-record 108 wins and a World Series title and winning the American League MVP Award.

Devers was part of that World Series-winning team in 2018 and led the Red Sox in RBIs each season from 2020 to 2024, garnering AL MVP votes across each of the past four years. Devers had been with the Red Sox since 2013, when he signed as an international amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic. He debuted four years later at age 20.

Boston is banking on its young talent to replace Devers’ production. The Red Sox regularly play four rookies — infielders Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer, outfielder Roman Anthony and catcher Carlos Narvaez — and infielder Franklin Arias and outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia are expected to contribute in the coming years.

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Ohtani to return to mound vs. Padres on Monday

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Ohtani to return to mound vs. Padres on Monday

Shohei Ohtani will make his long-awaited return to pitching on Monday night in a matchup against the division-rival San Diego Padres, the Los Angeles Dodgers announced.

Ohtani, 21 months removed from a second repair of his ulnar collateral ligament, will be used as an opener, likely throwing one inning. Because of his two-way designation, Ohtani qualifies as an extra pitcher on the roster, giving the Dodgers the flexibility to use a piggyback starter behind him.

That is essentially what will take place in his first handful of starts — a byproduct of the progress Ohtani has made in the late stages of his pitching rehab.

Ohtani, 30, initially seemed to be progressing toward a return some time around August. But he made a major step during his third simulated game from San Diego’s Petco Park on Tuesday, throwing 44 pitches over the course of three simulated innings and compiling six strikeouts against a couple of low-level minor leaguers.

Afterward, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said it was a “north of zero” chance Ohtani could return before the All-Star break. When he met with reporters prior to Sunday’s game against the San Francisco Giants — an eventual 5-4 victory — Roberts said it was a “possibility” Ohtani could pitch after just one more simulated game.

After the game, Roberts indicated the timeline might have been pushed even further, telling reporters it was a “high possibility” Ohtani would pitch in a big league game this week as an opener, likely during the upcoming four-game series against the Padres.

“He’s ready to pitch in a big league game,” Roberts told reporters. “He let us know.”

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What blockbuster trade means for Rafael Devers’ fantasy baseball potential

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What blockbuster trade means for Rafael Devers' fantasy baseball potential

If you’re just getting back home from your Father’s Day activities, you had better sit down, because Sunday evening’s Boston Red SoxSan Francisco Giants trade is a doozy.

Rafael Devers, second among third basemen and seventh among hitters in fantasy points this season, is headed to the Giants, traded minutes before their game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Boston’s return includes pitchers Kyle Harrison, who was the Giants’ scheduled starting pitcher Sunday night (subsequently scratched), pitcher Jordan Hicks, outfield prospect James Tibbs III and pitching prospect Jose Bello.

Expect Devers to continue to serve in a designated hitter-only capacity with his new team, considering his season-long stance, which is primarily an issue for his position eligibility for 2026. He might factor as the Giants’ future first baseman if given a full offseason to prepare for the shift to a new position — or it could happen sooner if he has a change of heart in his new environment.

As for the impact on Devers’ numbers, the move from Fenway Park to Oracle Park represents one of the steepest downgrades in terms of park factors, specifically run production and extra-base hits. With its close-proximity Green Monster in left field, Fenway Park is a much better environment for doubles and runs scored, Statcast reflecting that it’s 22% and 10% better than league average in those categories, respectively, compared with 8% worse and only 2% above par for Oracle Park.

Devers is a prime-age 28, with a contract averaging a relatively reasonable $31.8 million over the next eight seasons, and he’s leaving a Red Sox team where his defensive positioning — he has played all but six of his career defensive innings at third base — was a manner of much debate, to go to a team that has one of baseball’s best defensive third basemen in Matt Chapman (once he’s healthy following a hand injury). Devers’ unwillingness to play first base probably played a big part in his ultimately being traded, and it’s worth pointing out that one of the positions where the Giants are weakest is, well, also first base.

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Perez: Devers gives Giants a ‘really good offense’

Eduardo Perez, David Cone and Karl Ravech react to the Giants acquiring star 3B Rafael Devers from the Red Sox.

Devers’ raw power is immense, as he has greater than 95th percentile barrel and hard-hit rates this season. He has been in that tier or better in the latter in each of the past three seasons as well. He’s at a 33-homer (and 34 per 162 games) pace since the beginning of 2021, so the slugger should continue to homer at a similar rate regardless of his surroundings. He should easily snap the Giants’ drought of 30-homer hitters, which dates back to Barry Bonds in 2004. Devers’ fantasy value might slip slightly, mostly due to the park’s impact on his runs scored and RBIs, but he’ll remain a top-four fantasy third baseman.

If you play in an NL-only league, Devers is an open-the-wallet free agent target. He’s worth a maximum bid, considering he brings a similar ability to stars you might invest in come the July trade deadline, except in this case you’ll get an extra month and a half’s production.

Harrison is an intriguing pickup for the Red Sox, though in a disappointing development, he was immediately optioned to Triple-A Worcester. A top-25 overall prospect as recently as two years ago, Harrison’s spike in average fastball velocity this season (95.1 mph, up from 92.5) could be a signal of better things ahead. Once recalled to Fenway Park, his fantasy prospects would take a hit, as that’s a venue that isn’t forgiving to fly ball-oriented lefties, but he’d be a matchups option nevertheless.

Expect Hicks to serve in setup relief for his new team, though he’d at best be fourth in the Red Sox’s pecking order for saves.

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