Judge vs. Ohtani is a gift: How the universe converged to produce a dream World Series showdown
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
WHATEVER FINALLY BROUGHT Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge together, be it fate or kismet or financial might or a lucky draw or some combination therein, understands the power of delayed gratification. For the past seven years, Ohtani and Judge have existed in the same baseball universe, dominating their peers wholly and incontrovertibly — trains moving faster than everyone, only set on parallel tracks. Never, for anything meaningful, did their paths converge. Neither had reached the biggest stage, together or individually. They were monoliths. Their greatness lived in realms of their own.
What if, though? It was always the optimistic question. What if, at some point in this game that so often makes no sense, everything aligned with purpose? What if Ohtani joined a team worthy of his excellence, and what if Judge’s failures of Octobers past receded, and what if these two men who have bent a sport to their will finally met for something more meaningful than awards or records?
Each owns plenty of hardware. Judge has won one MVP award, is about to win another, made six All-Star teams, collected three Silver Sluggers and was Rookie of the Year. Ohtani’s résumé is nearly a carbon copy: two MVPs with a third on the way, four All-Star Games, two Silver Sluggers and a Rookie of the Year plaque. Ohtani and Judge have coexisted in the same way as light and darkness, silence and noise, truth and lies: They are here, undeniable, grand forces of nature, but never together.
Now they are united at last, a blessing of synchronicity. It feels almost miraculous to find a moment like this, when the two men who, more than any, have evolved the sport to a new place face off with one another for the only prize that matters.
We have no idea what kind of baseball is in store in the World Series that begins Friday between the Dodgers and Yankees, between Los Angeles and New York, between Ohtani and Judge. In no way should that diminish the excitement. The matchup takes something already special — the first time in 41 years that the Dodgers and Yankees, the two most famous franchises in the sport, battle for a championship — and infuses it with jet fuel. As much of a turn-off as the pairing of two financial behemoths that regularly carry payrolls in the $300 million range might be to all of the fans whose organizations refuse to spend half that, now is not the time to lament baseball’s inequity. This is a rare gift of two historically unique talents.
Until Judge arrived, no man who stood at least 6-foot-7 and weighed more than 280 pounds had taken a single major league at-bat. Until Ohtani came from Japan, no MLB player since Babe Ruth nearly a century earlier had attempted to pitch and hit full-time simultaneously, let alone done so with aplomb. These are imaginary beings manifested as men.
Because the ulnar collateral ligament in Ohtani’s right elbow failed for a second time, he will not stand 60 feet, 6 inches from Judge, ball in hand, specimen against specimen. But Ohtani and Judge will share the same field, breathe the same air, play in the same games, strive for the same goal, and for now, that is plenty.
This World Series will mark the first time ever that opposing players coming off 50-home run regular seasons face one another. The first time home run champions from the American and National League clashed since Mickey Mantle and Duke Snider in1956. The first time players with at least nine wins above replacement squared off in a World Series since Ted Williams and Stan Musial in 1946.
Opportunities like this come along only every so often for baseball. The how and the why can be left to the cosmic, the unknowable. All that matters, really, is that they are here.
OHTANI’S PATH BEGAN more than 5,000 miles away from Dodger Stadium. For years, he was Japan’s secret, its treasure. Maybe the best pitcher in the world — and he could hit. As Ohtani prepared to leave Nippon Professional Baseball after the 2017 season and join MLB, big league scouts weren’t convinced he could do both. They were wrong. From the right arm whirling around his 6-foot-4, 230-pound frame, Ohtani thrust balls with uncommon speed and spin. And not only could he hit, he did so like few others. The ball soared off his bat as if propelled by gunpowder. Before his arrival in MLB, only two players could generate batted balls like Ohtani. One was named Giancarlo Stanton, and he won the NL MVP award in 2017. The other was the AL Rookie of the Year that season: Aaron Judge.
When Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels, the baseball industry cocked a collective eyebrow. The Angels were backbenchers in Southern California, terminally misrun. The skepticism was proven well-founded: Ohtani spent six seasons in Orange County and played for teams that went a combined 401-469, finished in fourth place in the AL West five times and never made the postseason. For a team to pair Ohtani with Mike Trout for more than half a decade and never muster a winning record takes festering institutional rot.
Relevance awaited 30 miles north. When Ohtani reached free agency last winter, the Dodgers pulled out every stop to convince him to abscond Anaheim for L.A., including a video the late Kobe Bryant had recorded when the Dodgers tried to sign Ohtani in December 2017.
The Dodgers, admired by players for their generous payrolls, made a pitch to Ohtani that went beyond money (though they were fully amenable to his request: 10 years, $700 million, with $680 million of it deferred, 65% more guaranteed dollars than baseball’s previous record deal, the $426.5 million extension Trout signed in 2019). The organization shares Ohtani’s obsessiveness with the game. The Dodgers promised he would be surrounded by like-minded people on the hitting and pitching sides, ones who spend as much time thinking about baseball as Ohtani does.
They welcomed his curiosity and whetted his appetite for knowledge. He could take batting practice off the Trajekt pitching machine that can replicate every major league pitch thrown this season. He could hone his swing with HitTrax, another piece of tech that measures batted-ball profiles. He could work with a medical staff that mapped out a plan for him to rehabilitate his elbow while chasing history.
Beyond that, the Dodgers planned to tap into something the Angels never fully could: the power of Ohtani in Japan. He is baseball’s biggest star in at least a generation, maybe longer. His reach extends across oceans. If in his time with the Angels he managed to establish himself as inimitable in the same way as Ronaldo and Messi, LeBron and Steph, Brady and Mahomes, continuing with the Dodgers would exponentially increase the size of his stage.
More than that, they were winners, something Ohtani had been starved for in Anaheim. The Dodgers had captured the NL West title 10 of the past 11 years. Their success is a foundational element of the franchise, which will make its 22nd World Series appearance this week.
Ohtani chose the Dodgers on Dec. 9, spent spring training weathering all of the attention that came with the marriage of iconic player and organization and navigated the delicate dance of integrating into a clubhouse full of set-in-their-ways veterans while bringing with him the eyeballs of a country of 125 million people.
“You would never guess he’s Japanese Justin Bieber,” Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow said. “He’s got a very young soul. He seems very innocent.”
Following Ohtani’s first game as a Dodger, everything changed. After inquiries from an ESPN reporter about a multimillion-dollar gambling debt, Ohtani’s interpreter and closest friend, Ippei Mizuhara, stood in front of the team and said he had an addiction. Based on information provided by Mizuhara, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told the team Ohtani had helped cover the losses.
The story didn’t add up to Ohtani, who speaks and understands English but not fluently. Hours later, the Dodgers fired Mizuhara, who later would admit in court to stealing nearly $17 million from a bank account of Ohtani’s to which he had access. Questions about Ohtani’s involvement — which were answered in a federal complaint that point-by-point laid out the case against Mizuhara — nonetheless hung over the Dodgers. Mizuhara’s guilty plea to bank fraud and tax fraud in June, carrying a sentence of up to 33 years, did little to satisfy the conspiracy theorists convinced he was protecting Ohtani.
All the while, Ohtani kept hitting. He entered June with 14 home runs and an OPS of nearly 1.000, and he proceeded to hit a dozen home runs that month. He added 12 stolen bases in July, then followed by homering another 12 times and swiping 15 more bags in August. When September arrived, the specter of Ohtani becoming the first player ever to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a season looked possible. He reached both marks Sept. 18 in arguably the greatest individual game in baseball history: 6-for-6 with three home runs, 10 RBIs and two stolen bases. The 50th home run ball sold at auction for $4.392 million on Wednesday.
Ohtani didn’t stop at 50/50. A day later, he hit his 51st homer, and two days after that, out went No. 52, a colossal shot on a 92-mph fastball from Colorado starter Kyle Freeland that was above the strike zone and on the inner third of the plate — a seemingly impossible pitch to hit where he did (slightly to the left of center field) and how hard he did (110 mph).
“Going backside in Dodger Stadium is not easy,” Dodgers Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty said. “Left-center off a lefty? Really not easy. Do it on that pitch, up and in, and hit it as far as he did on a pitch that’s a ball? Damn.”
Ohtani ended his age-30 season with 54 home runs and 59 stolen bases for the team with the best record in baseball — the essential validation for his free agency decision. What the Dodgers sold him on — that they would help make Ohtani the best version of himself — came true.
“What was so surprising for me is no matter how he’s doing, good or bad, he’s the same,” Glasnow said. “Every single person I’ve played with has ups and downs. You can tell when things are going well. It helped that he was having a dominant season, but he never seems too overwhelmed.
“People who get too consumed with it — it adds more stress. He doesn’t seem to carry it with him. It doesn’t seem like he’s overly stressed out ever.”
October offered the potential for that. And just like in April, when Ohtani answered questions about his ability to withstand scrutiny, he displayed rare imperviousness. Ohtani homered in his second playoff at-bat. He reached base 17 times in the NLCS, a Dodgers postseason-series record. He continued a laughable jag dating back to the regular season in which he hit safely in 18 of his last 23 at-bats with runners on base.
And somehow none of it seemed altogether absurd. Because this is who Ohtani is. Impossible is a goal, inconceivable an aspiration. It is the rarest quality in sports. And there’s only one other player in baseball right now who can come close to matching it.
JUDGE’S PATH BEGAN nearly 3,000 miles from Yankee Stadium. He was the 32nd pick in the first round of the 2013 draft, a Fresno State outfielder whose size and the lack of comparable players concerned most teams. New York considered this a feature, not a bug. No franchise understands the value of a star like the Yankees, and they gladly went big, appreciating the boom-or-bust nature of prospects with tools like Judge’s.
He arrived in the Bronx on Aug. 13, 2016, batting eighth for a Yankees team barely over .500. On the fourth major league pitch he saw, Judge hit a towering home run to center field, one of two hits that day. He homered the next day, followed that with two more hits and added another pair in his fifth game. For the previous 2½ seasons, Judge had tantalized the Yankees with his raw talent. What they saw in the first five games of his major league career went a long way to justifying their excitement.
That he followed the early slice of substantiation with the worst slump of his career — in Judge’s final 22 games that year, he hit .121/.213/.227 with 36 strikeouts in 66 at-bats — did not disillusion the Yankees. They believed in the person, the work, as much as they did the player.
Even so, what Judge did in his first full season — .284/.422/.627 with 52 home runs, 114 RBIs and a league-leading 128 runs, 127 walks and 208 strikeouts — dwarfed expectations. Greatness in baseball scarcely reveals itself so quickly. When it does, its trappings can ensnare even the most careful. Never did Judge find himself caught. He was big and moved in gorgeous fashion, his swing honed over thousands of hours, his twitchiness typically seen in men 6 inches shorter and 80 pounds lighter. When he played, he thrived. And though injuries ate at chunks of his next three seasons, Judge always produced when healthy, settling into a position held by few: a true, undeniable New York sports star.
“Judgy’s just such a consistent person,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “You can’t hide that or fake that. That’s what’s so impressive about him. You can’t tell if he is flying high, which he normally is, or if he’s 2-for-14, striking out for a few days.”
Judge understood the duties of serving as the heir to Derek Jeter, the longtime Yankees captain who retired in 2014: accountability above all. To the team. To the fans. To himself. Baseball is a cannibal of a sport, capable of eating at the psyches of even the most gifted players. Judge could not succumb to its vagaries, and he didn’t, and over time Boone’s awe morphed into admiration. He trusted Judge, still green by baseball standards, for wisdom and input.
“Over the years, I’ve brought him in more,” Boone said. “I’ll ask his opinion on something I’m thinking about with the team. But I love it when he stops by my office after a game. He’ll just pop in late, an hour after a game, and just check in. Maybe it was a big win or something. And he’ll say, ‘Good stuff, skip. Hey, how’s everyone doing? How are we looking?'”
When something goes wrong, on the field or otherwise, Judge will give Boone a knowing glance, ball up his fist and tap himself on the chest, as if to say: That’s on me. And as much as Judge understands his apologies won’t be accepted — “More often than not,” Boone said, “I’m just like: ‘Stop it’ ” — he still takes it upon himself to offer them. If things are really going sideways, Judge will forgo the sign language for verbal affirmation.
On July 24, 2022, about two months before he would hit his 62nd home run and break the single-season AL home run record Roger Maris had held for more than six decades, Judge struck out in his first at-bat against Baltimore right-hander Dean Kremer on a curveball that nearly hit the ground. He returned to the dugout, looked at Boone and said: “I got you.” In his next at-bat, Judge hit a Kremer curve 456 feet. As he rounded third, he extended his index finger and pointed at Boone in the dugout.
For all of Judge’s brilliance that season, he went 1-for-16 as the Houston Astros swept the Yankees in the ALCS. They had lost the previous year in the wild-card game to Boston. And in the 2020 division series to Tampa. And the season prior to the Astros in the ALCS. And before that to the Red Sox in the division series. And in his first postseason, his rookie year, when three home runs and seven RBIs weren’t enough to oust an Astros team later punished for sign-stealing that extended into October. As much credit as Judge is due for his regular-season radiance, the lack of a World Series appearance until now was an indelible dark spot.
“It eats at me every time we don’t finish the job,” Judge said. “I take a lot of responsibility for that, being on the team, and if we don’t win it all, I feel like it’s my fault.”
The Yankees re-signed Judge to a nine-year, $360 million contract in December 2022, thwarting the San Francisco Giants‘ attempt to lure him back to California. New York proceeded to miss the postseason in Judge’s first year of the deal, and the organization, keenly aware of the need to surround him with better players, acquired star right fielder Juan Soto in a trade. Fourteen consecutive seasons without a World Series appearance conferred a particular sense of urgency on the Yankees, as did the acknowledgement that at 32 years old, Judge’s best years might be behind him.
April stoked such fears. Batting just .179 with two home runs 21 games into the season, Judge was booed at Yankee Stadium. Judge didn’t begrudge them. With his contract came the Yankees’ captaincy and its responsibilities. Even the most productive hitter in the world can slump, and New York offers no mercy.
“There’s been a lot of legends that played here that have been booed,” Judge said. “It’s just part of it. You can’t focus on that. You’ve got to go out there. They want to see you win. They want to see you do well. You’ve just got to focus on what you can control. What I can control is what I do in the box and what I do on the field.”
When Judge talks about his process or taking things one at-bat at a time or creating a plan and needing to execute on it or controlling what he can control, the words are neither idle nor trite. He homered 14 times in May. He hit .409 and drove in 37 runs in June. He added another dozen home runs in August. He fell off slightly in September and still managed an OPS over 1.000 for the month. Though Judge’s 58 home runs this season fell short of his record, his best all-around season yet helped the Yankees improve by a dozen games over 2023. New York captured the top seed in the AL, toppled Kansas City in the division series, bounced Cleveland in the ALCS and booked the ticket to their 41st World Series and Judge’s first.
All of it came with Judge still not performing like himself in the postseason. He finished the division series 2-for-13 and the ALCS 3-for-18, far from the sort of production expected of Judge by his team and himself. But as when his cold spring gave way to a blistering summer, Judge heats up fast. And if the Yankees can make it to the World Series without him hitting, imagine what they’ll look like if he does.
NOW THEY MEET, the superstars who weren’t supposed to be what they are because how could anybody be that, at the intersection of unspeakable talent and fanatical work? If Ohtani and Judge were on expansion teams, it would be a championship bout compelling enough to watch. Add in the backdrop — the 11 previous World Series between the franchises, the two biggest cities in America, the two best records in MLB — and it’s challenging to envision a World Series that appeals more to the masses.
MLB’s expanded postseason has reduced even further the likelihood that the best team in each league would play in the World Series, which is why this feels so special. These aren’t wild cards that got hot at the right time. They’re very good baseball teams with truly great players. The parade of stars beyond Ohtani and Judge — Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, Gerrit Cole — bolsters the argument in favor of this being a World Series for the most casual of fans.
If you love baseball — hell, if you just like it — this series is a privilege in the same way it was the last time we saw Ohtani playing meaningful baseball. That was March 2023, when the Japanese national team he captained opposed Team USA in the finals of the World Baseball Classic. (Judge declined joining Team USA to focus on his goals in New York.) With Japan leading by one run, Ohtani came on to pitch the ninth. He secured two outs, and up stepped Trout, the only other person who understood on his level what it meant to play for the Angels. To be that best version of himself, Ohtani needed these sorts of moments, challenges, stakes. On a 3-2 pitch, he threw a vicious sweeper that crossed all 18 inches of the plate and more. Trout swung through it. Ohtani exulted.
No one in the United States had seen that side of him. At 21, he won the Japan Series with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, and it left him hungry. By the end of last season, Ohtani was famished. If baseball is a game he’s trying to solve bit-by-bit, a championship run in the world’s best league might as well be the final boss. And it’s the one area in which Ohtani allows himself leeway for the moment to penetrate his rhinoceros skin. This, to Ohtani, isn’t simply important. It’s everything.
“Playing a regular-season game and playing a playoff game is different,” Ohtani said. “And I think a lot of players end up showing their emotions. So I feel like I’m part of that.”
Judge is not, though he sees the stakes as no less do-or-die than Ohtani does. Stoicism is Judge’s superpower, and to change that now, because he is four wins from his first ring, would be a betrayal of self. Discipline got Judge here, and he refuses to cave to the notion that October contrasts with September or August or July in any meaningful way.
“All I’m doing is trying to treat it just like the regular season,” Judge said, “go out there and whatever the situation calls for, go out there and do it and help the team win a game.”
At the end of this series, one of baseball’s two titans is going to win four games and his first championship, gilding his legacy. The other will skulk away, heartbroken, wondering where it went wrong, lamenting what he could have done. It doesn’t matter that their pitching staffs are both stretched thin, that the grind of a 162-game season is compounded by an October where every pitch matters. The way Ohtani and Judge’s minds work, they could bat 1.000, and if they lose, they still won’t have done enough.
And that’s what makes this all so damn good. At 8:08 p.m. ET on Friday, inside a packed Dodger Stadium, seven years in the making arrives. The delay ends. The gratification beckons. Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, each one of one yet still in so many ways the same, ushering in something only they can. An epic for a new epoch.
The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
More: Top 50 trade candidates | Passan’s preview | Fantasy spin
Jump to: Latest intel | Completed deals | Previous intel
This week’s MLB trade deadline buzz
July 28
Mets in need of relievers: As we close in on the deadline, the Mets are looking to ideally add two relievers — a center fielder, and possibly an additional hitter to slot in a designated hitter, in the event that their current regular DH Mark Vientos is one of the players they need to include in a deal to address their needs.
White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. is their top target for the center-field need, with Orioles CF Cedric Mullins as the second option, as Jesse Rogers has noted below. I’m told the White Sox have focused on Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Vientos and Luisangel Acuna in those Robert talks, with the last two being the most realistic options. — Kiley McDaniel
Bader could be a hot commodity: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, sources told ESPN. Bader is a plus defender batting .255 with 12 home runs and a .777 OPS in 93 games this season. His 2.0 fWAR ranks 30th in the majors among outfielders. He would effectively be a rental for a contender; he signed a one-year deal with $6.25 million guaranteed plus up to $2 million in bonuses that includes a mutual option for 2026. He is likely to opt for free agency to secure a better contract before his age-32 season.
Bader has played for both New York clubs; with the Yankees in 2022 and 2023 and with the Mets last season. The Yankees seek a right-handed-hitting outfielder with Aaron Judge’s flexor strain throwing a wrench into their season. The Mets could use an upgrade in center field. The Dodgers, meanwhile, could use Bader in center field, move Andy Pages to left field and struggling Michael Conforto (.194 batting average and .650 OPS) to the bench. — Jorge Castillo
Yankees keep up search for pitchers: The Yankees continue to work on adding bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, and they have talked with other teams about right-handed-hitting outfielders. Former Yankee Harrison Bader is among those discussed, as well as White Sox outfielder Austin Slater. The Yankees’ bullpen has been the weakest part of the team this year, and they will be among the contenders likely to add relief before the deadline. — Buster Olney
Blue Jays — like most teams — need bullpen help: Toronto is in an increasingly commanding position in the AL East, and one of the advantages the Blue Jays have is the flexibility of their position player group. They have a handful of players who can change spots according to the day-to-day needs of manager John Schneider. Like so many contending teams, the Jays are working to add bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, from the enormous pool of available relievers. — Olney
Yankees looking for pitching help: The Yankees’ focus is now on adding pitchers — both a starter and multiple relievers — after upgrading their position player group with the additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario over the weekend.
As Kiley McDaniel notes below, Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a possible option if the Yankees are willing to pay a steep price.
New York has also shown interest in the Pirates’ available arms, a source told ESPN. Right-handed starter Mitch Keller, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana are among the pitchers Pittsburgh could move before Thursday’s deadline.
Landing Keller, a quality midrotation starter, would also require a hefty haul since the veteran is under contract over the next three seasons for about $54.5 million. So would adding Bednar, who is one of the top relievers available and under team control through next season. — Castillo
July 27
Mets are scouring CF market — and Robert could play a big part: The New York Mets are keeping an eye on centerfielders Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox.
Robert returned to the lineup on Sunday as the designated hitter after missing the previous two games due to groin tightness. Before getting hurt, he was easily having the best month he has had over the past two seasons, hitting .351 with a .442 OBP in July. The White Sox have been waiting for an increase in prospect capital to move forward on a deal. It’s possible they finally get it this week; but they could always pick up the option in his contract this offseason and do this all over again next year. Robert’s production this month has teams intrigued. — Jesse Rogers
Not all White Sox players are on the table: The Chicago White Sox are holding out for a decent prospect return for starter Adrian Houser, who is likely to get moved by the deadline — unless teams just don’t believe in his 2.10 ERA over 11 starts. The Sox would love a 10th-to-20th-ranked prospect from an opposing organization’s farm system for him; though, teams are likely to lean toward the lower end of that instead of what Chicago prefers, closer to the higher end. The New York Yankees were among teams scouting Houser this weekend. He pitched another good one against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Meanwhile, depth outfielder Mike Tauchman isn’t likely to get traded. While Chicago still has another year of team control over him, the coaching staff has raved about his influence within its young clubhouse. He would be more valuable on the open market if he could play center field, but leg issues are a concern, and the White Sox aren’t likely to get much in prospect return for him. — Rogers
The market for one Marlins starter could be heating up: Teams unwilling or unable to meet the demands for Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore, two controllable starters who are more likely to stay put than move at this point, could easily pivot to Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. The 27-year-old is controllable through the 2028 season and has been on a really good run, posting a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.
Another Marlins pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, has been the big name bandied about on the trade front all year, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be moved. Alcantara has struggled in his initial return from Tommy John surgery and is controllable for an additional two years. And the Marlins — surging of late, with 20 wins in their past 28 games — can easily justify holding on to him if they are not blown away by offers. At this point, Cabrera seems more likely to be traded. — Alden Gonzalez
Gore’s market is stalled for now: Jesse Rogers noted below (July 24 update) that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add a starting pitcher with years of control and would consider including a young position player, though hopefully not a top prospect, to make that happen. MacKenzie Gore is one of those targets, and the key player the Washington Nationals are rumored to want in a return package is Matt Shaw, who isn’t yet on the table and graduated from prospect status this season with 71 MLB games.
The New York Yankees are also shopping for a starting pitcher and have some young position players of interest to rivals, but they aren’t keen on including either of their top prospects, George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones. If they change that stance, they could be a dark horse fit with the Nats on Gore. — McDaniel
Boston should target Tampa Bay’s Diaz: The Tampa Bay Rays‘ struggles over the past month have really surprised other teams — and the Rays’ staffers, too — and now they could shift to become dealers at the deadline. Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox. He’s making $10 million this year (the Red Sox would be on the hook for about a third of that), and he has a very attractive $12 million option for 2026. — Olney
Could Ozuna be one of the Braves on the move? The Atlanta Braves might be the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year, and now they are fully prepared to execute a minor sell-off before the deadline, moving relievers Raisel Iglesias (who is making $16 million this year) and Pierce Johnson ($7 million, with a $7 million option for 2026) and maybe others. Marcell Ozuna, benched recently when manager Brian Snitker decided to devote the DH spot to catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin, has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade proposal, which means the Braves are unlikely to engage any team in trade talks about Ozuna. If another team calls the Braves, however, to ask about his availability, then they will ask Ozuna if he would accept a move. The market for DHs is extremely limited, and Atlanta would presumably have to eat at least some of the $5 million or so owed to the slugger for the rest of this season. — Olney
Look for Texas to now be aggressive at the deadline: If you were to line up all the MLB president of baseball operations and general managers on a spectrum from most competitive to least, the peers of Rangers GM Chris Young would probably pick him to be the most competitive — which is why other teams assume that with Texas surging in the standings of late, the Rangers will be adding before the deadline. A few weeks ago, the assumption among those other clubs was that the Rangers would become dealers and perhaps move Adolis Garcia and others. But they have won eight of nine since the All-Star break and start Sunday just a half-game out of the third wild-card position. And remember, in 2023, Texas limped into the postseason and wound up winning the World Series. — Olney
Can Mets find an ace at deadline? The market has been very thin in teams offloading, but according to sources, the Mets continue to look around to see whether there’s a match for a starting pitcher capable of taking the ball for a Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks could be that guy, or maybe it’s Seth Lugo of the Royals, or the Padres’ Dylan Cease. Perhaps it’s one of the two big-time starters who will be under team control beyond this season, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara or the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Mets’ rotation was exceptional early in the year, before injuries and natural regression began to take a toll, and the team could use a boost in the front end of this group as they fight the Phillies for NL East supremacy. — Olney
Which way will deadline bubble teams go? The staredown continues as deadline week begins, with perhaps as many as a half-dozen teams waiting to declare their status. “This weekend is big for a lot of teams,” said one evaluator.
The Rays, who appeared to be gathering momentum a month ago, are now just a game over .500, and given the organization’s longstanding focus on maximizing the value of their players, some rival evaluators think they could now be considering dealing some pieces away.
The St. Louis Cardinals are two games over .500, with the industry waiting to see whether they will deal closer Ryan Helsley. The expectation is that they will, given the tough NL playoff landscape. The Tigers could be interested, maybe the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.
The Los Angeles Angels are now five games under .500, and the presumption is that they will eventually move some players before the deadline, but the Angels don’t always operate in the way teams typically do. Taylor Ward has drawn interest from other organizations. — Olney
Completed deal tracker
Brewers acquire catcher from Rays
The Milwaukee Brewers are working to finalize a deal to acquire catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays, sources tell ESPN. The Rays are also working to acquire catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins, sources confirm to ESPN.
Tigers bolster pitching staff
The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grades »
Braves add veteran rotation arm
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash. As part of the deal, the Cardinals will cover the majority of what remains of Fedde’s 2025 salary of $7.5 million. Story »
Yankees make another deal for infield depth
The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers. Story »
Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs
The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann. Story »
Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies
The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies. Story » | Grades »
Mets get bullpen help from O’s
The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles. Story » | Grades »
Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor
The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton. Story » | Grades »
Previous deadline buzz
July 25 updates
Will the Royals trade Lugo — or extend him? Seth Lugo is an intriguing name in the trade market, but rival evaluators don’t sense the Royals are especially motivated to make a deal. Kansas City could also use this moment to explore an extension with Lugo, to keep their deep well of starting pitching intact. — Buster Olney
Angels’ deadline plans coming into focus: Any confusion about whether the Angels will add or subtract ahead of the trade deadline has seemingly cleared up in recent days, with a four-game losing streak that has them five games under .500.
The Angels are telling teams their pending free agents are available, sources with knowledge of the situation said. That includes third baseman Yoan Moncada, utility infielder Luis Rengifo, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen. Left fielder Taylor Ward, controllable through 2026, can also be had with the right deal.
The Angels famously never rebuild under owner Arte Moreno and are prone to adding even in times when they seem like long shots to contend — most notably in 2023, when they not only held on to Shohei Ohtani but also traded for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez before collapsing in August.
At this time last year, they tried to move the likes of Anderson and Rengifo but did not believe they would have received enough back to justify holding on to them through the following season. And so it is worth noting: Even if the Angels do decide to punt on 2025, their goal would be to contend again next season.
Any moves they make would probably be geared toward that. By trading away rentals, the Angels will try to use the trade deadline to add accomplished players who can help the team next year. — Alden Gonzalez
What the Astros might be looking for: The Astros’ best fit in a hitter is someone who could play second base or left field, and they can move Jose Altuve accordingly. Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 94.5% chance to reach the postseason; they lead the Mariners by five games in the AL West. — Buster Olney
How Arizona could shape the trade deadline: The Diamondbacks informed other teams in the past that they would “probably” be dealing away players, but even after trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, it’s unclear just how far Arizona will go. If the D-Backs decided to go all-in on trading veterans, they could reshape their organization significantly, by moving free-agents-to-be Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and, of course, Eugenio Suarez.
The perception of other front offices is that Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick does not want to completely offload, especially with the Dodgers drifting back toward the pack in the NL West — and as of Thursday night, Suarez wasn’t even officially on the market.
The Diamondbacks, who reached the World Series in 2023 after winning just 84 games during the regular season, won their first three games after the All-Star break, but have subsequently lost three in a row. What some rival evaluators believe is that if the D-Backs keep dealing, it’ll be because of a nudge from the front office. Arizona has been extensively scouting other organizations in preparation. — Buster Olney
White Sox starter drawing interest from contenders: About a half-dozen or more scouts will be in attendance at Rate Field on Friday night when Adrian Houser takes the mound for the White Sox. He has compiled a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts for Chicago after being picked up midseason. Teams don’t believe they’ll have to give up a lot to acquire him, and he could make for a good back-end starter or depth piece for a contender. The White Sox are likely to move him at his peak, and Friday could be the final look for those who are interested. — Jesse Rogers
July 24 updates
Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers
July 23 updates
Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.
The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo
A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney
How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers
Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.
The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez
July 22 updates
An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney
Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney
Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney
Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers
How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.
Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney
What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.
But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.
It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez
Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers
Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.
But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney
Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers
Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.
The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez
Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney
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Kiley McDaniel
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Kiley McDaniel
ESPN MLB Insider
- ESPN MLB Insider
- Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
- Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
The July 31 MLB trade deadline is just days away, so it’s time for a deadline week update to our top 50 trade candidates ranking.
The major league trade market is ever evolving, and to keep you updated, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan have put together a list of potential trade candidates based on players’ performance — and that of the teams that could be involved in potential deals.
This is the most up-to-date accounting of where MLB’s trade market stands. While some of the players on the list are unlikely to be dealt, they’re at least being discussed in potential deals. Others might be making the list for the first time this week as their team’s fortunes have changed.
Note: Players ranked by value for their new team if traded, not likelihood of being dealt.
Chance of trade: 90%
Suarez is in a contract year and playing like one of the best players in baseball. Only Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge have more home runs than his 33. Despite turning 34 years old before the trade deadline, Suarez is sitting near career highs in isolated power and wRC+ (which measures overall performance). His fielding metrics have declined in recent years, but he’s still an acceptable defender at third base. Even if the Diamondbacks don’t offload all their free agents to be, Suarez could move because they’ve got Jordan Lawlar raking in Triple-A and primed to take over at third.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
Chance of trade: 10%
Ryan is one of the best pitchers in baseball, with a mix of stuff and pitchability, and teams in search of long-term fits dream of the possibility the Twins will actually move him. That is unlikely, but this is deadline season, so there is always the chance a team surveys the market, finds nothing to its liking and overpays. The Twins don’t necessarily want to move Ryan; they are more in listening mode on nearly everyone that occupies a roster spot — and with Ryan not a free agent until after the 2027 season, teams are trying, with little success thus far, to pry him away.
Best fits: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 10%
While the general sense is that Gore won’t go anywhere, the Nationals are, at the very least, listening — and that warrants a spot atop the list regardless of the minimal likelihood interim general manager Mike DeBartolo deals him. The prospect of Gore moving is tempting enough to want to engage: 144 strikeouts in 117⅔ innings with enough control that he’s walking a career-low 3.4 per nine innings. Even if stuff-plus models aren’t crazy for Gore, he gets elite swing-and-miss and is the sort of pitcher that could tempt teams to overpay.
Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, Baltimore, Houston, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 25%
Another late entry to the proceedings, Cease is throwing as hard as he did in his prime and is here more as a function of the Padres not having payroll flexibility or a deep minor league system than some sort of desire to deal him. As an impending free agent, he wouldn’t bring back nearly the haul of Ryan or Gore. And there are genuine questions about whether the holes the Padres would try to fill by moving Cease would only be exacerbated on the starting-pitching side were he to go. Regardless, they’re at the very least listening, and with Cincinnati and San Francisco breathing down their necks for the final NL wild-card slot, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could try to get creative in upgrading his roster.
Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets
Chance of trade: 10%
An All-Star the past two years and Gold Glove winner in all three of his previous big league seasons, Kwan is a do-everything left fielder with elite bat-to-ball skills and two years of club control after 2025. Cleveland doesn’t want to deal him, but with a dearth of available bats, the Guardians at the very least will listen to see if teams are willing to blow them away with offers.
Best fits: Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, Toronto, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers
Chance of trade: 25%
Duran had a huge breakout season in 2024, posting the seventh-best fWAR in the majors at 6.8. He overperformed his underlying metrics, though — i.e., had some lucky outcomes — and those metrics have regressed a bit this year as has his luck. Duran’s projected to finish the season with around 3.0 WAR, which is more in line with how the league sees him. With Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox have the outfield depth to consider moving Duran for controllable, top-end pitching.
Best fits: San Diego, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia
7. Jhoan Duran, RP, Minnesota Twins
Chance of trade: 30%
Duran is one of the best relievers in the sport, thanks to his nasty stuff, headlined by a fastball that averages 100.4 mph and a splinker that sits at 97.6 mph. He has two more years of team control after this season, so he’d demand a big trade package.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
8. Cade Smith, RP, Cleveland Guardians
Chance of trade: 20%
Smith has been the best reliever in baseball by WAR since the beginning of the 2024 season, and with more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings this year, he is the solution to many teams’ late-inning woes. With four more years of control, he’s also going to be prohibitively expensive for most teams, making a deal difficult to come by.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
9. Griffin Jax, RP, Minnesota Twins
Chance of trade: 30%
Despite a 3.92 ERA that says otherwise, Jax has been one of the top relievers in baseball this season — the best by xFIP and toward the top in other similar metrics. Over the past two seasons, he’s second in the sport behind Cade Smith in reliever WAR. Only Fernando Cruz and Mason Miller have a better strikeout rate than Jax’s 14.37 per nine, and his sweeper-heavy arsenal induces as much swing-and-miss as anyone.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas
10. Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance of trade: 70%
Kelly doesn’t have big raw stuff, posting the second-lowest average fastball velocity (92.1 mph) among pitchers with 125 innings pitched this season. His changeup is his best pitch by a wide margin, and he gets by with location and off-speed stuff. He was a stalwart in the Diamondbacks’ run to the 2023 World Series, striking out 28 in 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA.
Best fits: Toronto, Boston, Houston, Chicago Cubs
Chance of trade: 65%
Not only is Keller in the midst of a career-best season with a 3.53 ERA, he’s under contract for another three years at a very reasonable $55.7 million. The Pirates need bats, and moving Keller is the likeliest way to fill that void. Teams could be scared off slightly by the quality of contact against him — his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have spiked while his strikeouts are down — but in an environment with little pitching, Keller is nevertheless desirable.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, Toronto, Houston
Chance of trade: 30%
All the potential the Marlins have seen in the 27-year-old right-hander is finally being realized this season. While Cabrera’s 97 mph fastball gets hitters’ attention, it’s his curveball and slider that are doing most of the work. And with a changeup that in years past has been his best pitch, the cost to acquire Cabrera will be high because of his full arsenal and three more years of club control.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, New York Mets, Toronto, Houston, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees
Chance of trade: 50%
Alcantara was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in 2022, winning the NL Cy Young unanimously. He was more solid than spectacular in 2023 and missed 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He has been tinkering this season to try to get his pitch mix and locations right in hopes of regaining his former glory. His 6.66 ERA is frightening, and with the Marlins still valuing him as a top starter, they could hold onto him until the winter, when teams like the Orioles would be more inclined to acquire him and the final two years of his contract.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Boston, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, Baltimore
14. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance of trade: 70%
Gallen was excellent for the past three seasons but now, in a contract year, is posting career-worst numbers in almost every category. His stuff looks pretty similar, but he’s allowing much more damage when hitters make contact. That said, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is back to normal in his past six starts, at 35-to-6, despite a 6.55 ERA in that span.
Best fits: Toronto, San Diego, Houston, Chicago Cubs
15. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Chance of trade: 85%
O’Hearn is having an out-of-nowhere career year, with an OPS+ of 132 (and he’s been unlucky with ball-in-play luck, to boot) along with being on pace for a career high in homers. He doesn’t face lefty pitchers much at all and his splits suggest that he shouldn’t.
Best fits: Houston, Boston, San Francisco, Texas
16. David Bednar, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Chance of trade: 70%
In a market replete with relief options, the 30-year-old Bednar brings high-end performance without quite the price tag of his peers. His swing-and-miss stuff has been elite since his return from Triple-A, and he has more than salvaged his trade value: Over his past 23 outings, Bednar has struck out 29, walked five and posted a 0.00 ERA.
Best fits: Detroit, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Seattle
Chance of trade: 50%
Suarez is unique in that he throws his two fastball variants (four-seamer and sinker) 76% of the time, which is the highest in the league. On top of that, every other pitch he has thrown his season has been his changeup — he has no breaking ball.
It’s also rare that a contending team would trade its closer, but Suarez has an opt out after this year that he is expected to exercise, so he’s effectively in a contract year. The Padres’ farm system depth is down and moving a key big league player on an expiring deal could be step one in a multi-part deadline plan by GM A.J. Preller.
Fits: New York Yankees, Toronto, Detroit, Texas
Chance of trade: 80%
Helsley had the fourth-best WAR among relievers last season and is in a contract year, but he has been notably worse this season. His stuff and locations are pretty similar, but the main difference is his fastball is getting hit hard — with one byproduct being his spiking home run rate.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, Toronto, Detroit, New York Mets, Seattle
Chance of trade: 20%
Fairbanks raised his slot a bit this year, and now his 97.3 mph fastball has more cutting action while his slurvy slider has more depth with both pitches playing a notch better than they did last season. He has a club option for 2026 that, with escalators, should wind up around the $10 million range. Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes and bullpen injuries have cut into the likelihood Fairbanks moves.
Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Toronto, Texas
20. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Chance of trade: 50%
A late entrant into the trade market, Bieber still hasn’t thrown a big league pitch this season and is coming back from Tommy John surgery. With his fastball up to 94 mph and his slider looking like its old sharp self, though, he’s generating plenty of interest and could be one of the bigger names moved at the deadline.
Best fits: San Diego, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, Toronto
Chance of trade: 60%
Ward comes with an additional year of team control after this season and he’s having a strong 2025 campaign, just one homer away from last year’s career high total of 25 — and in 52 fewer games.
Best fits: Cincinnati, San Diego, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco
Chance of trade: 50%
Robert has been extremely unlucky with ball-in-play results this season, but that has begun to turn around recently. He remains a strong defender and baserunner, with a career-high 24 steals already. But the slash line is unsightly, and his trade value has cratered over the past two seasons. He has a pair of $20 million-a-year club options that the acquiring team will be hesitant to exercise absent a turnaround. Finding a match with a team willing to pay more for Robert’s upside than his productivity could be challenging.
Best fits: San Diego, Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, San Francisco
Chance of trade: 70%
Laureano has been a premium role player since his breakout in 2019 but is having a career year this season in Baltimore, so he’s now seen as a solid every-day right fielder.
He is average to above at everything in the batters box due to optimizing how he hits the ball more than having huge raw power or bat speed. He’s also solid on the basepaths and defensively, fitting best in the outfield corners with one of the better outfield arms in the league.
Laureano just turned 31 years old, is in a contract year, and is on a hot streak right now, with a 156 wRC+ and .924 OPS in his last 100 at-bats.
Best Fits: Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, Toronto, Seattle, Cincinnati, Los Angeles Dodgers
24. Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Chance of trade: 20%
Arenado’s strikeout rate is around his career best and he’s still an above-average defender, but his power and patience are both trending down to around the worst of his career. He’s still a solid starter but no longer a star, and the team taking him on a deal would still have to pay him like one. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause.
Best fits: Detroit, Milwaukee, Seattle
Chance of trade: 70%
Ozuna is a stone-cold DH, playing two games in the field in 2023 as his last regular-season experience defensively. He’s also in a contract year, but his power numbers are down a notch from his standout .302 average and 39-homer performance last season. His on-base percentage remains among the highest of potential trade candidates. If anyone is moving from Atlanta, he’s the likeliest candidate, with free agency beckoning.
Best fits: San Diego, Seattle, Texas, Detroit, San Francisco
Chance of trade: 50%
Garcia averaged 30 homers in 2021-24, but he has fallen off since his 2023 career year. It’s worth noting that per xwOBA, he has been the 13th-most unlucky hitter in the big leagues this year. He also has another year of team control, so some teams could see a buy-low opportunity.
Best fits: Philadelphia, Seattle, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco
27. Reid Detmers, RP, Los Angeles Angels
Chance of trade: 15%
The No. 10 pick from the 2020 draft transitioned to relief this season and has found similar success to other highly drafted college lefties, including A.J. Puk, Andrew Miller and Drew Pomeranz. He comes with three more years of control after this season and his velo is up 1.7 mph in the new role, so this might be where he fits long term — and he could fetch a hefty return. Some teams still see Detmers as a starter.
Best fits: New York Mets, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Toronto
Chance of trade: 90%
Following a dreadful start to the season, Morton found his curveball and has righted himself. Between his stuff and playoff experience, he has leapt up teams’ boards as a true target and almost certainly will move before the deadline.
Best fits: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto
29. Adrian Houser, SP, Chicago White Sox
Chance of trade: 90%
Houser’s resurgence is a success story for the White Sox. He opted out of a minor league deal with Texas to sign with the White Sox in mid-May and has limited home runs to post a 2.10 ERA in nearly 70 innings. He’ll eat innings for sure, but some scouts see his stuff as good enough to warrant a spot in a postseason rotation.
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto
Chance of trade: 80%
Mullins is a 30-year-old center fielder in a contract year who contributes in a number of ways, though he’s hitting only .217 and his defensive metrics have regressed to be below average in center. His walk rate and power numbers are up this season, making him a solid contributor on a contender.
Best fits: Philadelphia, Houston, New York Mets
Nos. 31-58
31. Willi Castro, UT, Minnesota Twins
32. Seth Halvorsen, RP, Colorado Rockies
33. Zack Littell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
34. Jeffrey Springs, SP, Athletics
35. Jesus Sanchez, RF, Miami Marlins
36. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
37. Dennis Santana, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
38. JP Sears, SP, Athletics
39. Michael Soroka, SP, Washington Nationals
40. Tyler Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Angels
41. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Washington Nationals
42. Luis Severino, SP, Athletics
43. Zach Eflin, SP, Baltimore Orioles
44. Pierce Johnson, RP, Atlanta Braves
45. Phil Maton, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
46. Steven Matz, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
47. Harrison Bader, CF, Minnesota Twins
48. Jake Bird, RP, Colorado Rockies
49. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
50. Yoan Moncada, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
51. Andrew Heaney, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
52. Chris Paddack, SP, Minnesota Twins
53. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Atlanta Braves
54. Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Baltimore Orioles
55. Ramon Urias, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
56. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, UT, Pittsburgh Pirates
57. Luis Urias, 2B, Athletics
58. Shelby Miller, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Kiley McDaniel
MLB trade season has officially kicked into high gear with contenders looking to add to their rosters for the stretch run ahead and rebuilding teams aiming to stockpile young players with an eye to the future before Thursday’s 6 p.m. ET deadline arrives.
As the moves go down, you can probably form your own opinion of the MLB veterans headed to new teams, but it’s much more difficult to figure out what to make of the minor leaguers who have moved.
Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. Here’s our running ranking of every notable prospect who was dealt during July sorted by tiers using my Future Value grades so you can see where they slot in an MLB top 100 list or your team’s farm system ranking.
This story will be updated with top prospects headed to new teams added to the list with every new deal, so come back every time a move goes down to see which stars of tomorrow are on the move this month.
40+ FV tier
Acquired from Seattle Mariners in Josh Naylor deal
A 2023 11th-rounder out of Texas A&M, Garcia was a sleeper in the Seattle system who broke through as a starter in 2024. This season, he was moved into a full-time relief role, leading to his big league debut earlier this month.
He has an upper-body-reliant delivery with very short extension and a near-sidearm slot that nonetheless creates a lot of velocity, with his fastball peaking at 100.4 mph this season and living at 95-98 mph with his plus sinker. He also mixes in an 88-90 mph cutter and 84-86 mph sweeper that are both plus pitches. Garcia’s fastball command improving and the cutter continuing to be a useful weapon against righties are keys to him becoming a late-inning reliever.
40 FV tier
Acquired from New York Yankees in Ryan McMahon deal
Herring signed for $800,000 after being selected in the sixth round of the 2024 draft. He made only one start over two seasons at LSU but showed starter traits. Through 16 appearances as a starter this year, pitching across both Single-A levels, that theory has mostly held up.
His 88-92 mph heater touches 94 and looks as if it’ll be a fringe-to-average pitch, while his slider is above average and his changeup (which should be used more often) also flashes above average. He’ll move up to the 40+ FV tier with a little more bulk of performance and/or a strong finish/promotion in Double-A.
Acquired from New York Mets in Gregory Soto deal
Aracena was a low-profile international signee, getting a $70,000 bonus in 2022 out of the Dominican Republic. He sat 90-94 mph for his first two pro seasons, then his velo exploded in 2024 to 95-98, hitting 100 mph. This year he’s been even a bit higher, sitting 96-99 and hitting 101 mph at 20 years old as a starter in Single-A.
The reason he isn’t ranked higher is his command is below average to the point that his likely career outcome is as a reliever. His fastball also plays below its velocity right now due to his command issues and higher arm slot, which creates a nonideal plane and a cutting action to the pitch. His 89-95 mph slider (possibly a cutter and slider that run together) is nasty, a clear plus pitch, while his changeup is rarely used and rudimentary.
The raw ability here is impressive and Aracena is young and athletic enough to get another year or two to prove he can start, but he also has late-inning potential as a reliever if that doesn’t work out. Aracena will move into the 40+ FV tier with either a tick more of command, developing a legitimate changeup or just keeping his head above water performance-wise as a starter in High-A.
Acquired from the Detroit Tigers in Chris Paddack deal
Jimenez is a 19-year-old, switch-hitting catcher playing in Rookie ball who has a solid chance to stick behind the plate long term, but, as you’d guess, he still has some defensive work to do. He’s a slightly above-average framer (particularly to his glove side) and has above-average arm strength (catching 34% of baserunners this year), but is a below-average blocker of pitches in the dirt.
He’d benefit from getting more agile behind the plate but the athleticism is there to do so: Jimenez is a solid-average runner right now despite a stout 5-foot-9 frame. His raw power projects as fringe-to-average given his lack of physical projection, though he has solid ball flight (think 15ish homers at peak), with a grade more power as a left-handed hitter. Jimenez’s contact and on-base skills grade about average, so the sales pitch here is an overall average offensive threat, which is enough to warrant playing him at other positions to get his bat in the lineup as a platoon option, but hoping he can progress in all phases enough to become a primary catcher.
5. Ashton Izzi, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Acquired from Seattle Mariners in Josh Naylor deal
Izzi was a classic projection righty who signed for $1.1 million after being selected in the fourth round of the 2022 draft out of an Illinois high school.
He has delivered on that projection, with his average fastball velo having crept up from 93.1 to 94.0 to 94.5 in his three pro seasons. His four-seamer is a solid-average pitch, while his slider can get to average with slightly better locations and his sweeper is an above-average pitch, maybe plus.
The issue is Izzi’s sinker; although it has a fine velocity/movement combination, it is too center-cut in the zone and has been hammered by hitters while being used almost as much as his four-seamer. He also doesn’t use his changeup much — but probably should, especially as he dials back his sinker. With some progress in his mix and locations, this is a No. 4 starter package, but Izzi is more of a long reliever as currently constituted.
Acquired from Kansas City Royals in Randal Grichuk deal
Hoffmann was a 12th-round pick out of Illinois in the 2021 draft who was traded to the Royals in 2022 and finished the season in Double-A, beating predraft expectations. He was seen as a potential back-end starter at that point, but moved to full-time short relief this season en route to making his big league debut.
His mid-90s fastball is a solid-average pitch that plays up due to his funk and deception, and his main weapon is a plus changeup that tunnels well to the bottom of the zone. His slider is a clear third pitch and is fringy, which is why he was moved to relief to focus on using his two best pitches. With better fastball locations, Hoffmann could move from middle relief into the later innings.
35+ FV tier
Acquired from New York Yankees in Amed Rosario deal
Beeter was a second-round pick in the 2020 draft and has slowly moved down the starter-to-reliever spectrum to becoming a full-time reliever for the first time in 2025. He’s 26 years old with five career big league appearances under his belt, but Beeter is still in Triple-A for now because of his walk rate: 7.2 per 9 innings — including issuing seven walks in his last 8⅓ innings pitched.
Beeter is still a solid prospect because of his 65-grade slider and above-average fastball that peaks at 99 mph. His fastball command is the variable that, with more progress, could turn him into a late-inning reliever, but Beeter is a higher-variance middle reliever who needs to avoid walks in Triple-A to get his next big league shot.
8. Browm Martinez, CF, Washington Nationals
Acquired from New York Yankees in Amed Rosario deal
Martinez signed for a $130,000 bonus last January and was solid last summer in the Dominican Summer League before having a huge repeat season in the league this year — posting an OPS of 1.139 driven by higher contact rates.
There is still a wide range of potential outcomes for Martinez as an 18-year-old playing in the lowest level of the minors, but the key here is he has above-average bat control and pitch selection at the plate, arguably the two most important things to demonstrate at lower levels.
He’s also a solid-average runner who has 34 career stolen bases, and that speed could allow him to stay in center field. There’s some physical projection left given his age, but his power projects to continue to be below average, so sticking in center would be key to his long-term value.
9. Josh Grosz, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Acquired from New York Yankees in Ryan McMahon deal
Grosz is a potential No. 5 starter/swingman type with some feel and deception from his abruptly quick delivery. He throws a 92-95 mph dead-zone fastball with heavy tail that plays around average, an above-average changeup and a fringy slider.
He has a tougher road to being a solid big leaguer if he can’t stick as a starter because most teams prefer a middle reliever to have an above-average breaking ball to get right-handed hitters out.
10. Cameron Foster, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Acquired from New York Mets in Gregory Soto deal
Foster is a 26-year-old long reliever who sits 93-96 and hits 99 mph from a high slot (it’s on the whole an average big league pitch). He also mixes in an 86-88 mph cutter (a solid-average pitch), an 81-84 mph slurve (an above-average pitch), and a big loopy 75-78 mph curveball (effective as a fourth offering that’s used in certain situations). He’s a solid back-end-of-the-roster-type utility arm who can be used in multiple roles and should debut this year or next. He needs to be added to the 40-man roster after the season to protect from the Rule 5 draft.
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