Judge vs. Ohtani is a gift: How the universe converged to produce a dream World Series showdown
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
WHATEVER FINALLY BROUGHT Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge together, be it fate or kismet or financial might or a lucky draw or some combination therein, understands the power of delayed gratification. For the past seven years, Ohtani and Judge have existed in the same baseball universe, dominating their peers wholly and incontrovertibly — trains moving faster than everyone, only set on parallel tracks. Never, for anything meaningful, did their paths converge. Neither had reached the biggest stage, together or individually. They were monoliths. Their greatness lived in realms of their own.
What if, though? It was always the optimistic question. What if, at some point in this game that so often makes no sense, everything aligned with purpose? What if Ohtani joined a team worthy of his excellence, and what if Judge’s failures of Octobers past receded, and what if these two men who have bent a sport to their will finally met for something more meaningful than awards or records?
Each owns plenty of hardware. Judge has won one MVP award, is about to win another, made six All-Star teams, collected three Silver Sluggers and was Rookie of the Year. Ohtani’s résumé is nearly a carbon copy: two MVPs with a third on the way, four All-Star Games, two Silver Sluggers and a Rookie of the Year plaque. Ohtani and Judge have coexisted in the same way as light and darkness, silence and noise, truth and lies: They are here, undeniable, grand forces of nature, but never together.
Now they are united at last, a blessing of synchronicity. It feels almost miraculous to find a moment like this, when the two men who, more than any, have evolved the sport to a new place face off with one another for the only prize that matters.
We have no idea what kind of baseball is in store in the World Series that begins Friday between the Dodgers and Yankees, between Los Angeles and New York, between Ohtani and Judge. In no way should that diminish the excitement. The matchup takes something already special — the first time in 41 years that the Dodgers and Yankees, the two most famous franchises in the sport, battle for a championship — and infuses it with jet fuel. As much of a turn-off as the pairing of two financial behemoths that regularly carry payrolls in the $300 million range might be to all of the fans whose organizations refuse to spend half that, now is not the time to lament baseball’s inequity. This is a rare gift of two historically unique talents.
Until Judge arrived, no man who stood at least 6-foot-7 and weighed more than 280 pounds had taken a single major league at-bat. Until Ohtani came from Japan, no MLB player since Babe Ruth nearly a century earlier had attempted to pitch and hit full-time simultaneously, let alone done so with aplomb. These are imaginary beings manifested as men.
Because the ulnar collateral ligament in Ohtani’s right elbow failed for a second time, he will not stand 60 feet, 6 inches from Judge, ball in hand, specimen against specimen. But Ohtani and Judge will share the same field, breathe the same air, play in the same games, strive for the same goal, and for now, that is plenty.
This World Series will mark the first time ever that opposing players coming off 50-home run regular seasons face one another. The first time home run champions from the American and National League clashed since Mickey Mantle and Duke Snider in1956. The first time players with at least nine wins above replacement squared off in a World Series since Ted Williams and Stan Musial in 1946.
Opportunities like this come along only every so often for baseball. The how and the why can be left to the cosmic, the unknowable. All that matters, really, is that they are here.
OHTANI’S PATH BEGAN more than 5,000 miles away from Dodger Stadium. For years, he was Japan’s secret, its treasure. Maybe the best pitcher in the world — and he could hit. As Ohtani prepared to leave Nippon Professional Baseball after the 2017 season and join MLB, big league scouts weren’t convinced he could do both. They were wrong. From the right arm whirling around his 6-foot-4, 230-pound frame, Ohtani thrust balls with uncommon speed and spin. And not only could he hit, he did so like few others. The ball soared off his bat as if propelled by gunpowder. Before his arrival in MLB, only two players could generate batted balls like Ohtani. One was named Giancarlo Stanton, and he won the NL MVP award in 2017. The other was the AL Rookie of the Year that season: Aaron Judge.
When Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels, the baseball industry cocked a collective eyebrow. The Angels were backbenchers in Southern California, terminally misrun. The skepticism was proven well-founded: Ohtani spent six seasons in Orange County and played for teams that went a combined 401-469, finished in fourth place in the AL West five times and never made the postseason. For a team to pair Ohtani with Mike Trout for more than half a decade and never muster a winning record takes festering institutional rot.
Relevance awaited 30 miles north. When Ohtani reached free agency last winter, the Dodgers pulled out every stop to convince him to abscond Anaheim for L.A., including a video the late Kobe Bryant had recorded when the Dodgers tried to sign Ohtani in December 2017.
The Dodgers, admired by players for their generous payrolls, made a pitch to Ohtani that went beyond money (though they were fully amenable to his request: 10 years, $700 million, with $680 million of it deferred, 65% more guaranteed dollars than baseball’s previous record deal, the $426.5 million extension Trout signed in 2019). The organization shares Ohtani’s obsessiveness with the game. The Dodgers promised he would be surrounded by like-minded people on the hitting and pitching sides, ones who spend as much time thinking about baseball as Ohtani does.
They welcomed his curiosity and whetted his appetite for knowledge. He could take batting practice off the Trajekt pitching machine that can replicate every major league pitch thrown this season. He could hone his swing with HitTrax, another piece of tech that measures batted-ball profiles. He could work with a medical staff that mapped out a plan for him to rehabilitate his elbow while chasing history.
Beyond that, the Dodgers planned to tap into something the Angels never fully could: the power of Ohtani in Japan. He is baseball’s biggest star in at least a generation, maybe longer. His reach extends across oceans. If in his time with the Angels he managed to establish himself as inimitable in the same way as Ronaldo and Messi, LeBron and Steph, Brady and Mahomes, continuing with the Dodgers would exponentially increase the size of his stage.
More than that, they were winners, something Ohtani had been starved for in Anaheim. The Dodgers had captured the NL West title 10 of the past 11 years. Their success is a foundational element of the franchise, which will make its 22nd World Series appearance this week.
Ohtani chose the Dodgers on Dec. 9, spent spring training weathering all of the attention that came with the marriage of iconic player and organization and navigated the delicate dance of integrating into a clubhouse full of set-in-their-ways veterans while bringing with him the eyeballs of a country of 125 million people.
“You would never guess he’s Japanese Justin Bieber,” Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow said. “He’s got a very young soul. He seems very innocent.”
Following Ohtani’s first game as a Dodger, everything changed. After inquiries from an ESPN reporter about a multimillion-dollar gambling debt, Ohtani’s interpreter and closest friend, Ippei Mizuhara, stood in front of the team and said he had an addiction. Based on information provided by Mizuhara, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told the team Ohtani had helped cover the losses.
The story didn’t add up to Ohtani, who speaks and understands English but not fluently. Hours later, the Dodgers fired Mizuhara, who later would admit in court to stealing nearly $17 million from a bank account of Ohtani’s to which he had access. Questions about Ohtani’s involvement — which were answered in a federal complaint that point-by-point laid out the case against Mizuhara — nonetheless hung over the Dodgers. Mizuhara’s guilty plea to bank fraud and tax fraud in June, carrying a sentence of up to 33 years, did little to satisfy the conspiracy theorists convinced he was protecting Ohtani.
All the while, Ohtani kept hitting. He entered June with 14 home runs and an OPS of nearly 1.000, and he proceeded to hit a dozen home runs that month. He added 12 stolen bases in July, then followed by homering another 12 times and swiping 15 more bags in August. When September arrived, the specter of Ohtani becoming the first player ever to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a season looked possible. He reached both marks Sept. 18 in arguably the greatest individual game in baseball history: 6-for-6 with three home runs, 10 RBIs and two stolen bases. The 50th home run ball sold at auction for $4.392 million on Wednesday.
Ohtani didn’t stop at 50/50. A day later, he hit his 51st homer, and two days after that, out went No. 52, a colossal shot on a 92-mph fastball from Colorado starter Kyle Freeland that was above the strike zone and on the inner third of the plate — a seemingly impossible pitch to hit where he did (slightly to the left of center field) and how hard he did (110 mph).
“Going backside in Dodger Stadium is not easy,” Dodgers Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty said. “Left-center off a lefty? Really not easy. Do it on that pitch, up and in, and hit it as far as he did on a pitch that’s a ball? Damn.”
Ohtani ended his age-30 season with 54 home runs and 59 stolen bases for the team with the best record in baseball — the essential validation for his free agency decision. What the Dodgers sold him on — that they would help make Ohtani the best version of himself — came true.
“What was so surprising for me is no matter how he’s doing, good or bad, he’s the same,” Glasnow said. “Every single person I’ve played with has ups and downs. You can tell when things are going well. It helped that he was having a dominant season, but he never seems too overwhelmed.
“People who get too consumed with it — it adds more stress. He doesn’t seem to carry it with him. It doesn’t seem like he’s overly stressed out ever.”
October offered the potential for that. And just like in April, when Ohtani answered questions about his ability to withstand scrutiny, he displayed rare imperviousness. Ohtani homered in his second playoff at-bat. He reached base 17 times in the NLCS, a Dodgers postseason-series record. He continued a laughable jag dating back to the regular season in which he hit safely in 18 of his last 23 at-bats with runners on base.
And somehow none of it seemed altogether absurd. Because this is who Ohtani is. Impossible is a goal, inconceivable an aspiration. It is the rarest quality in sports. And there’s only one other player in baseball right now who can come close to matching it.
JUDGE’S PATH BEGAN nearly 3,000 miles from Yankee Stadium. He was the 32nd pick in the first round of the 2013 draft, a Fresno State outfielder whose size and the lack of comparable players concerned most teams. New York considered this a feature, not a bug. No franchise understands the value of a star like the Yankees, and they gladly went big, appreciating the boom-or-bust nature of prospects with tools like Judge’s.
He arrived in the Bronx on Aug. 13, 2016, batting eighth for a Yankees team barely over .500. On the fourth major league pitch he saw, Judge hit a towering home run to center field, one of two hits that day. He homered the next day, followed that with two more hits and added another pair in his fifth game. For the previous 2½ seasons, Judge had tantalized the Yankees with his raw talent. What they saw in the first five games of his major league career went a long way to justifying their excitement.
That he followed the early slice of substantiation with the worst slump of his career — in Judge’s final 22 games that year, he hit .121/.213/.227 with 36 strikeouts in 66 at-bats — did not disillusion the Yankees. They believed in the person, the work, as much as they did the player.
Even so, what Judge did in his first full season — .284/.422/.627 with 52 home runs, 114 RBIs and a league-leading 128 runs, 127 walks and 208 strikeouts — dwarfed expectations. Greatness in baseball scarcely reveals itself so quickly. When it does, its trappings can ensnare even the most careful. Never did Judge find himself caught. He was big and moved in gorgeous fashion, his swing honed over thousands of hours, his twitchiness typically seen in men 6 inches shorter and 80 pounds lighter. When he played, he thrived. And though injuries ate at chunks of his next three seasons, Judge always produced when healthy, settling into a position held by few: a true, undeniable New York sports star.
“Judgy’s just such a consistent person,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “You can’t hide that or fake that. That’s what’s so impressive about him. You can’t tell if he is flying high, which he normally is, or if he’s 2-for-14, striking out for a few days.”
Judge understood the duties of serving as the heir to Derek Jeter, the longtime Yankees captain who retired in 2014: accountability above all. To the team. To the fans. To himself. Baseball is a cannibal of a sport, capable of eating at the psyches of even the most gifted players. Judge could not succumb to its vagaries, and he didn’t, and over time Boone’s awe morphed into admiration. He trusted Judge, still green by baseball standards, for wisdom and input.
“Over the years, I’ve brought him in more,” Boone said. “I’ll ask his opinion on something I’m thinking about with the team. But I love it when he stops by my office after a game. He’ll just pop in late, an hour after a game, and just check in. Maybe it was a big win or something. And he’ll say, ‘Good stuff, skip. Hey, how’s everyone doing? How are we looking?'”
When something goes wrong, on the field or otherwise, Judge will give Boone a knowing glance, ball up his fist and tap himself on the chest, as if to say: That’s on me. And as much as Judge understands his apologies won’t be accepted — “More often than not,” Boone said, “I’m just like: ‘Stop it’ ” — he still takes it upon himself to offer them. If things are really going sideways, Judge will forgo the sign language for verbal affirmation.
On July 24, 2022, about two months before he would hit his 62nd home run and break the single-season AL home run record Roger Maris had held for more than six decades, Judge struck out in his first at-bat against Baltimore right-hander Dean Kremer on a curveball that nearly hit the ground. He returned to the dugout, looked at Boone and said: “I got you.” In his next at-bat, Judge hit a Kremer curve 456 feet. As he rounded third, he extended his index finger and pointed at Boone in the dugout.
For all of Judge’s brilliance that season, he went 1-for-16 as the Houston Astros swept the Yankees in the ALCS. They had lost the previous year in the wild-card game to Boston. And in the 2020 division series to Tampa. And the season prior to the Astros in the ALCS. And before that to the Red Sox in the division series. And in his first postseason, his rookie year, when three home runs and seven RBIs weren’t enough to oust an Astros team later punished for sign-stealing that extended into October. As much credit as Judge is due for his regular-season radiance, the lack of a World Series appearance until now was an indelible dark spot.
“It eats at me every time we don’t finish the job,” Judge said. “I take a lot of responsibility for that, being on the team, and if we don’t win it all, I feel like it’s my fault.”
The Yankees re-signed Judge to a nine-year, $360 million contract in December 2022, thwarting the San Francisco Giants‘ attempt to lure him back to California. New York proceeded to miss the postseason in Judge’s first year of the deal, and the organization, keenly aware of the need to surround him with better players, acquired star right fielder Juan Soto in a trade. Fourteen consecutive seasons without a World Series appearance conferred a particular sense of urgency on the Yankees, as did the acknowledgement that at 32 years old, Judge’s best years might be behind him.
April stoked such fears. Batting just .179 with two home runs 21 games into the season, Judge was booed at Yankee Stadium. Judge didn’t begrudge them. With his contract came the Yankees’ captaincy and its responsibilities. Even the most productive hitter in the world can slump, and New York offers no mercy.
“There’s been a lot of legends that played here that have been booed,” Judge said. “It’s just part of it. You can’t focus on that. You’ve got to go out there. They want to see you win. They want to see you do well. You’ve just got to focus on what you can control. What I can control is what I do in the box and what I do on the field.”
When Judge talks about his process or taking things one at-bat at a time or creating a plan and needing to execute on it or controlling what he can control, the words are neither idle nor trite. He homered 14 times in May. He hit .409 and drove in 37 runs in June. He added another dozen home runs in August. He fell off slightly in September and still managed an OPS over 1.000 for the month. Though Judge’s 58 home runs this season fell short of his record, his best all-around season yet helped the Yankees improve by a dozen games over 2023. New York captured the top seed in the AL, toppled Kansas City in the division series, bounced Cleveland in the ALCS and booked the ticket to their 41st World Series and Judge’s first.
All of it came with Judge still not performing like himself in the postseason. He finished the division series 2-for-13 and the ALCS 3-for-18, far from the sort of production expected of Judge by his team and himself. But as when his cold spring gave way to a blistering summer, Judge heats up fast. And if the Yankees can make it to the World Series without him hitting, imagine what they’ll look like if he does.
NOW THEY MEET, the superstars who weren’t supposed to be what they are because how could anybody be that, at the intersection of unspeakable talent and fanatical work? If Ohtani and Judge were on expansion teams, it would be a championship bout compelling enough to watch. Add in the backdrop — the 11 previous World Series between the franchises, the two biggest cities in America, the two best records in MLB — and it’s challenging to envision a World Series that appeals more to the masses.
MLB’s expanded postseason has reduced even further the likelihood that the best team in each league would play in the World Series, which is why this feels so special. These aren’t wild cards that got hot at the right time. They’re very good baseball teams with truly great players. The parade of stars beyond Ohtani and Judge — Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, Gerrit Cole — bolsters the argument in favor of this being a World Series for the most casual of fans.
If you love baseball — hell, if you just like it — this series is a privilege in the same way it was the last time we saw Ohtani playing meaningful baseball. That was March 2023, when the Japanese national team he captained opposed Team USA in the finals of the World Baseball Classic. (Judge declined joining Team USA to focus on his goals in New York.) With Japan leading by one run, Ohtani came on to pitch the ninth. He secured two outs, and up stepped Trout, the only other person who understood on his level what it meant to play for the Angels. To be that best version of himself, Ohtani needed these sorts of moments, challenges, stakes. On a 3-2 pitch, he threw a vicious sweeper that crossed all 18 inches of the plate and more. Trout swung through it. Ohtani exulted.
No one in the United States had seen that side of him. At 21, he won the Japan Series with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, and it left him hungry. By the end of last season, Ohtani was famished. If baseball is a game he’s trying to solve bit-by-bit, a championship run in the world’s best league might as well be the final boss. And it’s the one area in which Ohtani allows himself leeway for the moment to penetrate his rhinoceros skin. This, to Ohtani, isn’t simply important. It’s everything.
“Playing a regular-season game and playing a playoff game is different,” Ohtani said. “And I think a lot of players end up showing their emotions. So I feel like I’m part of that.”
Judge is not, though he sees the stakes as no less do-or-die than Ohtani does. Stoicism is Judge’s superpower, and to change that now, because he is four wins from his first ring, would be a betrayal of self. Discipline got Judge here, and he refuses to cave to the notion that October contrasts with September or August or July in any meaningful way.
“All I’m doing is trying to treat it just like the regular season,” Judge said, “go out there and whatever the situation calls for, go out there and do it and help the team win a game.”
At the end of this series, one of baseball’s two titans is going to win four games and his first championship, gilding his legacy. The other will skulk away, heartbroken, wondering where it went wrong, lamenting what he could have done. It doesn’t matter that their pitching staffs are both stretched thin, that the grind of a 162-game season is compounded by an October where every pitch matters. The way Ohtani and Judge’s minds work, they could bat 1.000, and if they lose, they still won’t have done enough.
And that’s what makes this all so damn good. At 8:08 p.m. ET on Friday, inside a packed Dodger Stadium, seven years in the making arrives. The delay ends. The gratification beckons. Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, each one of one yet still in so many ways the same, ushering in something only they can. An epic for a new epoch.
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Kiley McDaniel
It’s MLB draft week!
This year’s draft will take place July 13-14 in Atlanta as part of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game festivities hosted by the Atlanta Braves.
As we approach the start of Round 1, here is one big question facing each of the 30 MLB teams.
Teams are listed in draft order.
More draft coverage: Mock draft 2.0 | Top 150 prospects
Watch: July 13 at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
Day 1 picks: No. 1, No. 49, No. 80
Bonus pool: $16,597,800
One big question: With C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Brady House and MacKenzie Gore in the big leagues, do the Nats’ opt for LSU lefty Kade Anderson over prep shortstop Ethan Holliday due to how they see their competitive timeline?
The industry believes the Nats are down to Holliday or Anderson for the No. 1 overall pick, with a small chance of another player being the choice. Anderson could be in the big leagues next season while Holliday likely takes a few years, at least.
Last year’s draft was the first with a new scouting group in place. The Nats picked No. 10 overall, at the tail end of the top tier of talent, and opted to go underslot with a safer pick in SS Seaver King. They applied those savings to a riskier pick in prep SS Luke Dickerson, who has been a home run so far, already becoming a top 100 prospect.
While they are picking No. 1 this year, the top of this draft doesn’t stack up to last year’s edition. As a draft prospect, Anderson ranks behind the top pitchers in last year’s class, such as second overall pick Chase Burns and, for some teams, behind fifth overall pick Hagen Smith — so this situation isn’t wildly different to that of their top pick last year.
Day 1 picks: No. 2, No. 47, No. 79, No. 105
Bonus pool: $16,656,400
One big question: How hard will the Angels lean into taking quick-moving college prospects this year?
Under GM Perry Minasian, the Angels have prioritized taking potential quick movers and promoting them aggressively: Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Christian Moore, Sam Bachman, and Ben Joyce are all early picks who are currently on the big league roster.
Rumors have been circulating all spring that Los Angeles will take one of the college lefties (LSU’s Kade Anderson, Florida State’s Jamie Arnold, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle) with the No. 2 overall pick and put that pitcher on the express train to L.A.
There were rumors last year that the Angeles considered prep shortstop Bryce Rainer with their first pick, but they ultimately ended up passing and taking Moore out of Tennessee; similarly this year the Angels have been tied to prep shortstop Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits — but the industry isn’t really buying it given the Halos’ history.
Last year, their next two picks were likely relievers in Chris Cortez and Ryan Johnson, and there are a number of similar college arms available for their next few picks in this draft: LSU righty Chase Shores, Georgia righty Brian Curley, Iowa lefty Cade Obermueller, Tennessee righties A.J. Russell and Tanner Franklin and Ole Miss righty Mason Morris. All of those pitchers should land in Rounds 2-4.
Day 1 picks: No. 3, No. 35, No. 57, No. 91
Bonus pool: $17,074,400
One big question: Do the M’s continue with the draft strategy that has been working for them?
There are a couple player demographics that have provided strong returns for Seattle in recent drafts. Prep position players landed with high picks/bonuses is a big one — Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Edwin Arroyo and Aidan Smith came in the 2021-2023 drafts. And Seattle also has found success with college pitchers throughout the draft: George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Brody Hopkins, Logan Evans.
Right now, industry chatter has Seattle casting a wide net for the No. 3 overall pick, with the three college left-handed pitchers all getting a long look along with prep righty Seth Hernandez and also some college position players in Aiva Arquette and Ike Irish.
Day 1 picks: No. 4, No. 45, No. 74, No. 77
Bonus pool: $15,723,400
One big question: What do the Rockies do if they don’t get Ethan Holliday?
It’s a poorly kept secret that the Rockies want Ethan Holliday, and they’ll probably get him if he doesn’t go No. 1 overall. But if he does go to the Nationals there, what direction does Colorado choose with the No. 4 pick?
Most industry chatter is that the Rockies will take a pitcher, with Florida State’s Jamie Arnold and Oklahoma’s Kyson Witherspoon, the two pitchers they are tied to that should still be on the board. Some think the Rockies would take Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette.
Whomever Colorado selects at No. 4 will likely impact the next pick, as the Rockies tend to mix position players and pitchers with their top picks. It’s worth noting the Rockies haven’t taken a high school player in the top 10 rounds in any of the past three drafts, so Holliday seems to be the rare prep player who tickles their fancy.
Day 1 picks: No. 5, No. 55, No. 72, No. 89
Bonus pool: $14,238,300
One big question: Will Chaim Bloom’s influence be felt in this year’s draft?
The Cards haven’t picked a high school player in the top 10 rounds in the past three drafts, instead leaning heavily into college pitching.
While in control in Boston, Bloom wasn’t shy about draft prep position players at high picks, including Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke. Bloom will be taking control of the Cardinals front office after this season, so it is an open question if his preferences will be felt a few months before he is the team’s top decision-maker.
Prep shortstops Eli Willits, JoJo Parker and Billy Carlson have all been tied here, with the other college players projected in this range of the draft also mentioned.
Day 1 picks: No. 6, No. 50, No. 73, No. 82
Bonus pool: $14,088,400
One big question: Will the Pirates lean toward college prospects with their early picks to try to help the big league team ASAP?
The Pirates have taken an above-average rate of high school players — their first three picks last year and four of their top five — and have found some big success with Konnor Griffin and Bubba Chandler.
That said, they’ve been tied mostly to college players for their top pick this year and some rivals theorize this is being influenced by trying to help the big league team. Any of the three college lefties or Aiva Arquette are rumored here most.
Day 1 picks: No. 7, No. 43, No. 46, No. 78
Bonus pool: $15,187,400
One big question: Do the Marlins continue to lean into prep position players?
In the first draft under new president of baseball ops Peter Bendix (formerly of the Rays) and scouting director Frankie Piliere (formerly of the Mariners), the Marlins took prep position players with their top two picks. Rumors have them eyeballing a similar strategy this year, which would be in keeping with a player demographic that the Rays and Mariners have found success with in the past. With a comp pick and over $15 million in bonus pool money, there’s plenty of muscle to get more than two premium talents in this year’s haul.
Day 1 picks: No. 8, No. 81
Bonus pool: $10,314,600
One big question: Given the stars of last year’s draft class and the strength of the farm system are both on the mound, do the Jays try to find a bat with their first pick?
Pitchers Trey Yesavage, Johnny King and Khal Stephen were the Jays’ top three picks last year and are all arrow up this year. Throw in currently/recently injured pitchers Ricky Tiedemann, Jake Bloss and Brandon Barriera, and that’s the top of the farm system, outside of shortstop Arjun Nimmala.
Given where the Jays’ first pick is, Oklahoma RHP Kyson Witherspoon and prep RHP Seth Hernandez are options, but otherwise it’s looking like mostly position players as the top options expected to be available for the No. 8 pick.
Day 1 picks: No. 9, No. 51, No. 83
Bonus pool: $11,836,800
One big question: Will the Reds get their wish and land Seth Hernandez?
Almost half of the teams in the top 10 won’t pick Seth Hernandez — not because of him necessarily, but they likely wouldn’t take any prep righties in the top 10. Because of that, a consensus top-tier talent might make it to the Reds at No. 9 if he doesn’t go third or sixth. If he makes it this far, it would set up the Reds to begin the draft with a steal — but if they don’t get him, which direction will they go?
There will be a few solid prep position players to choose from (Billy Carlson, Steele Hall, Gavin Fien) and a few college players (Ike Irish, Kyson Witherspoon), but there is also actually a decent chance that Tennessee LHP Liam Doyle runs into a similar issue to the one Hernandez could face and makes it all the way to the No. 9 pick. Either Doyle or Hernandez would both be great outcomes for the Reds.
Day 1 picks: No. 10, No. 44, No. 76
Bonus pool: $12,169,100
One big question: Will the White Sox hit pay dirt with another high schooler with one of their top two picks?
Chicago is picking in a spot where it will have some prep options for its first pick — JoJo Parker, Billy Carlson and Steele Hall are rumored to be in the mix — though there’s also at least as many college players who could also be considered.
Chicago has also been tied to prep lefty Kruz Schoolcraft and there’s a shot the White Sox could float him to their second pick with a big bonus, which might fit better with an underslot choice at their first pick.
Day 1 picks: No. 11, No. 48
Bonus pool: $10,563,500
One big question: Can the A’s take continue to successfully find value with college players?
The A’s did well in the 2021 draft, landing four big leaguers with their first four picks — Max Muncy, Zack Gelof, Mason Miller and Denzel Clarke — and none of them were consensus values for where they were picked. The 2022 class was a little more mixed, but they found two steals on the college side in Colby Thomas in the third round and Jack Perkins in the fifth round. 2023 was also mixed but was headlined by Jacob Wilson. 2024 has been another home run so far, with Nick Kurtz already in the big leagues, Gage Jump not far behind and Tommy White also playing well.
There is a clear trend of finding value with college players and the A’s are rumored to be looking at college position players, including Arizona OF Brendan Summerhill and SS Wehiwa Aloy at their top pick this year.
Day 1 picks: No. 12, No. 52,, No. 84
Bonus pool: $10,991,300
One big question: How often will the Rangers take risks?
In recent years, the Rangers have followed consensus rankings or played it safe with their higher picks, then taken some risks later in the draft.
In 2024, they started with three left-handed hitting college players with low-to-medium upside then took a player who has already had success with their first prep pick in Devin Fitz-Gerald.
Somewhat similarly in 2023, they took the best guy on the board in Wyatt Langford, then with no second or third round picks, still hit paydirt in the fifth round (Alejandro Rosario), sixth round (Caden Scarborough), and 11th round (Maxton Martin). I’d argue taking Kumar Rocker third overall in 2022 was risky and that has worked out.
The board is lining, up so the Rangers will likely choose from the second tier of players which will mean deciding between a range of different upsides: low (Ike Irish, Gavin Kilen), medium (Kyson Witherspoon, Wehiwa Aloy, Brendan Summerhill, Gavin Fien) and high (Steele Hall, Gage Wood).
Day 1 picks: No. 13, No. 85
Bonus pool: $8,403,300
One big question: How will new president of baseball ops Buster Posey impact the draft strategy?
Under scouting director Michael Holmes, the Giants have tended toward either higher upside, standout athletic testers (Bryce Eldridge, Walker Martin, Reggie Crawford, Dakota Jordan) or going underslot (last year’s top pick James Tibbs, now with the Red Sox as part of the Rafael Devers trade) at high picks.
Posey’s point of view tends to be more traditional, so he’s not expected to influence a change in draft strategy. Steele Hall and Wehiwa Aloy fit the athletic tester criteria well, and you could argue Kyson Witherspoon and Gavin Fien do, too.
Day 1 picks: No. 14, No. 37, No. 42, No. 53, No. 67, No. 86
Bonus pool: $16,699,400
One big question: How will the Rays utilize their extra picks?
The Rays have leaned hard into position players, particularly switch- and left-handed hitters, with plenty of high schoolers and some higher-upside collegiates with their top picks of late.
Brendan Summerhill, Jace Laviolette and Gavin Kilen are all fits on the college side for their first pick while preps Sean Gamble, Jaden Fauske, Dean Moss, Mason Ligenza and JoJo’s brother, Jacob Parker, all fit, mostly for later picks. Steele Hall is the one right-handed hitter tied to the Rays’ first pick. I’d expect them to end up with a few of these players given their number of early picks.
Day 1 picks: No. 15, No. 33, No. 75, No. 87
Bonus pool: $12,409,300
One big question: Will the Red Sox find more value at their early picks or in the middle rounds?
The Sox have drafted well of late, finding pretty immediate arrow-up types in Payton Tolle (2nd round) and Brandon Clarke (5th) last year, Kristian Campbell (4th compensation) and Connelly Early (5th) in 2023, along with Roman Anthony (2nd compensation) and Chase Meidroth (4th) in 2022.
They haven’t done poorly with their top picks — Braden Montgomery and Kyle Teel were their last two first-rounders and headlined the Garrett Crochet trade along with Meidroth — but it’s harder to hit a value home run with a first-round pick when expectations are already so high.
If the Sox can nail their first-rounder this year and then continue this trend of finding quick wins with two more middle-rounders, it will be a boon to the top farm system in baseball just as Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are likely to graduate.
I would project that both of those players will graduate in the next month (like Kristian Campbell, Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts did earlier in the year) and will drop the Red Sox farm sharply, into the middle tier of systems. For what it’s worth, those five alone would easily be a top 10 farm system, possibly top five.
Day 1 picks: No. 16, No. 36, No. 54, No. 88
Bonus pool: $12,653,000
One big question: Which high upside arm will they hand out a big bonus to this time?
The Twins have given at least $1.5 million to either a high school pitcher or one with a short college track record each of the past four years: Dasan Hill in 2024, Charlee Soto in 2023, Connor Prielipp in 2022 and Chase Petty in 2021.
The only fit for their first pick is Gage Wood, while there are a number of options in the second or third round: Landon Harmon, Cam Appenzeller, Aiden Stillman, Miguel Sime Jr. and Angel Cervantes. The Twins have been tied more so to position players, including Jaden Fauske, Charles Davalan, Jace Laviolette and Xavier Neyens.
Day 1 picks: No. 17, No. 56, No. 90
Bonus pool: $9,636,800
One big question: Do they continue targeting power arms and bats at their high picks?
In the past three seasons, the Cubs have tended toward power-oriented position players (Cam Smith, Cole Mathis, Matt Shaw) and power arms (Jaxon Wiggins, Cade Horton, Nazier Mule) with their bigger bonuses.
There are some solid options this year who are tied to the Cubs in Arkansas teammates Wehiwa Aloy and Gage Wood. Josh Hammond, Xavier Neyens and Jace Laviolette would also fit.
Day 1 picks: No. 18, No. 29, No. 92
Bonus pool: $10,917,800
One big question: Do they continue to target hit-first, up-the-middle bats?
The D-backs are commonly tied to Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Kayson Cunningham and Gavin Kilen given their history of taking compactly built position players such as Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Slade Caldwell.
With two picks in the top 30, they’ll have a couple chances and could conceivably land two of the four players mentioned above, maybe even if they just play it straight, with the college players likely not making it to Pick 29, but at least one of the prep hitters likely will.
Day 1 picks: No. 19, No. 30, No. 31, No. 58, No. 69, No. 93
Bonus pool: $16,513,100
One big question: Will the Orioles keep stacking up athletic position players?
The O’s have leaned heavily into up-the-middle position players with some power/athleticism in the draft. That profile describes their first four picks in 2024, first two picks in 2023, first four picks in 2022 and first three picks in 2021.
There is a lack of impact pitching on the big league team and at the higher levels of the farm system (though there is solid depth of big-league-caliber arms in the system), and their first pick is a chance to get a potential impact arm.
They do have a number of picks, so they’ll likely still dip into the group of position players who fit their drafting history: Xavier Neyens, Jace Laviolette, Wehiwa Aloy, Josh Hammond, Dax Kilby, Cam Cannarella and Slater de Brun.
Day 1 picks: No. 20, No. 32, No. 59, No. 68, No. 94
Bonus pool: $13,138,100
One big question: Where will the Brewers find value this year?
The Brew Crew have a somewhat unique approach to the draft, often finding value in later rounds. 2024 fourth-rounder Marco Dinges and 12th-rounder Tyson Hardin are arrow up from last year’s group. And the 2023 haul from the later rounds was huge: sixth-rounder Cooper Pratt, eighth-rounder Craig Yoho, 11th-rounder Bishop Letson, 13th-rounder Brett Wichrowski and 15th-rounder Josh Adamczewski. From their 2022 draft, fourth-rounder Matthew Wood and 12th-rounder Luke Adams are arrow-up prospects along with a second-rounder you might have heard of: Jacob Misiorowski.
Milwaukee aggressively pursues lesser-known high school players, often for six-figure bonuses and from the Upper Midwest, while also finding undervalued players in junior colleges and high school players who have fallen for unclear reasons. By nature, that is harder to predict before the draft, but some names they’re tied to fit these trends: Charles Davalan, Brady Ebel, Coy James and Ethan Rogers.
Day 1 picks: No. 21, No. 95
Bonus pool: $7,181,500
One big question: What type of middle-rounder will the Astros find value with this year?
Junior college shortstop Caden Powell, last year’s sixth-rounder, has been arrow up this year as an athletic-testing standout with big tools. In 2023, the Astros targeted toolsy, underscouted high schoolers in shortstop Chase Jaworsky and outfielder Nehomar Ochoa Jr. along with juco catcher Will Bush. In 2022, they found value from four-year colleges with RHP AJ Blubaugh (seventh round) and Zach Dezenzo (12th round).
Xavier Neyens and Tate Southisene are connected to the Astros’ first pick, but keep an eye on Micah Bucknam and Matt Ferraro in the third or fourth round.
Day 1 picks: No. 22, No. 60, No. 96
Bonus pool: $9,081,100
One big question: Will the Braves continue to use their top picks to stockpile arms?
The Braves have taken pitchers with at least their first three picks in each of the past four drafts. They’re tied to more arms this year — Gage Wood and Tyler Bremner get mentioned at their first pick, along with a number of position players — but will they continue this trend when roughly 75% of the top of their farm system is pitchers?
This is a great opportunity to reverse that trend and select a position player with their first pick, as the pool of best available talent is likely to be about 75% position players.
Day 1 picks: No. 23, No. 28, No. 61, No. 71, No. 97
Bonus pool: $12,794,700
One big question: How will the Royals handle their five picks on Day 1?
The Royals have their full complement of picks plus a compensation pick after the second round and a pick after the first round gained because of Bobby Witt Jr.‘s AL MVP runner-up finish.
Scouting director Brian Bridges loves to draft high school pitchers and upside in general, and his first draft in Kansas City is already showing dividends with his first two picks, Jac Caglianone and David Shields.
Like division mate Detroit with the next pick, the Royals are tied to a number of players as they prepare for all the different ways they could play their picks based on how things go ahead of them.
Their early picks have been tied to most prep pitchers, headlined by Aaron Watson, Kruz Schoolcraft, and Matthew Fisher along with some college arms such as Anthony Eyanson. That said, the board is giving them position players, particularly at their first pick, so the pitchers may be collected more down the board instead.
Day 1 picks: No. 24, No. 34, No. 62, No. 98
Bonus pool: $10,990,800
One big question: Will the Tigers hit paydirt with another left-handed-hitting prep position player?
Bryce Rainer, Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle have all been immediate hits in pro ball for the Tigers after being taken with first-round picks in the past two drafts.
There are some candidates to continue the trend when the Tigers pick at 24 and 34, including Kayson Cunningham, Jaden Fauske, Slater de Brun and Sean Gamble, though the Tigers have also been tied to Michael Oliveto (may fit better in the second round) and Coy James (right-handed hitter).
When a team has two early picks, it often gets tied to lots of players because, in different scenarios, it could go over or under slot or high school or college or hitter or pitcher at each spot. Anthony Eyanson, Aaron Watson and J.B. Middleton are some of the pitchers the Tigers have been tied to, and keep an eye on Jaiden LoRe (another right-handed-hitting shortstop) as a target at a later pick.
Day 1 picks: No. 25, No. 99
Bonus pool: $6,569,100
One big question: Can the Padres still land multiple players with big upside with the third-lowest bonus pool?
The Padres’ first two picks have been high school players in each of the past eight drafts — since the 2016 draft when they took Cal Quantrill out of Stanford with their first pick. They’re once again tied to a number of high-upside high school players.
Kruz Schoolcraft and Quentin Young are the two most rumored fits — but also Dax Kilby and Kayson Cunningham who have more medium upsides. It’s reasonable to assume San Diego takes one of those players with its first pick, possibly under slot, to then move those potential savings plus its overage into its next pick, which would give the team a seven-figure budget at No. 99. The Padres are one team on Maryland prep SS Will Rhine, who could fit the bill at their second pick.
Day 1 picks: No. 26, No. 63, No. 100
Bonus pool: $7,849,400
One big question: Will the Phillies continue to take high school players with their high picks?
The Phillies made the most surprising first-round pick last year, taking Dante Nori at the 27th pick. Their next-highest bonus went to another prep center fielder, Griffin Burkholder, while their top three bonuses in 2023 also went to prep position players and their top pick in 2022 was a prep position player. They found solid value in 2021 and 2020 taking prep right-handers with their top picks, so it’s a safe bet the Phillies will take a high school player with their first pick this year.
There are a number of prep position players who could fit for their first pick (Kayson Cunningham, Xavier Neyens, Quentin Young, Sean Gamble, Slater de Brun) but also a handful of prep pitchers, with Matthew Fisher the one connected to Philly the most.
Day 1 picks: No. 27, No. 64, No. 66, No. 70, No. 101
Bonus pool: $10,198,100
One big question: Which high school pitcher will the Guardians take this year?
The Guardians can be classified as value shoppers, but have also invested seven figures in one prep arm in each of the past three drafts. RHP Seth Hernandez won’t make it to their first pick, but he may be the only one of this year’s top prep arms off the board, while picking at 64, 66, 70 and 101 on the first day gives them plenty of chances and bonus money to maneuver. Judging from their history, Aaron Watson, Cameron Appenzeller and Miguel Sime Jr. are the most likely targets.
Day 1 picks: No. 38, No. 102
Bonus pool: $5,465,900
One big question: Is there enough depth in the Mets’ upper minors that they will lean into high schoolers with their first few picks?
The Mets’ upper minors depth is impressive right now, with Jett Williams, Francisco Alvarez, Drew Gilbert, Jacob Riemer, Luisangel Acuna and Ryan Clifford leading the way behind Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio in the big leagues.
On the pitching side, they have Jonah Tong, Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell, Dom Hamel and the injured Christian Scott ready to contribute this year or next.
This young depth around the big league team could allow them to lean into high schoolers and high-variance talent with the second-lowest bonus pool in the draft.
Day 1 picks: No. 39, No. 103
Bonus pool: $5,383,600
One big question: With the lowest bonus pool in the draft, can the Yankees replenish the farm system?
The Yankees were missing their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2023 draft and are missing their second rounder this year in addition to having their first-round selection moved down 10 picks because of CBT spending.
In 2023, the Yankees’ first pick was George Lombard Jr., one of the better prospects in baseball and they found some value at later picks but no clear home runs, yet.
Their first pick this year is where we hit the tail end of the 45 FV tier of players in my rankings, meaning there’s some late-first-round-caliber upside still available with high schoolers such as 2B Sean Gamble, CF Slater de Brun and SS Tate Southisene, or one of the college pitchers with some relief risk such as righties Riley Quick, Patrick Forbes and Marcus Phillips.
Day 1 picks: No. 40, No. 41, No. 65, No. 104
Bonus pool: $9,031,300
One big question: Do the Dodgers take a big swing at one of their comp picks?
The Dodgers have been forced to be creative in the draft because they are usually either picking near the end of each round and/or missing picks because of free agent signings. They’ve mixed in plenty of college players, but have tended to take high schoolers with their first-round picks.
This year, they’re tied to the most high-variance prospect in this year’s draft, prep infielder Quentin Young, and a few others who fit later in the draft, such as Mason Ligenza.
Sports
GMs tell their best (and wildest) trade stories: ‘Uncle Mike would have absolutely loved that you executed a trade at his funeral’
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Jesse Rogers
From births to funerals — and everywhere in between — the job of a major league baseball general manager is never done. That is especially the case this time of year, when talks heat up in advance of the July 31 trade deadline.
Calls and texts can come at the most inopportune times for front office members, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to go unanswered. After all, there’s always another team willing to do a deal.
With that in mind, we asked MLB executives to tell us their favorite trade stories.
Trade talks at the most inopportune times
‘We went back and looked at the time stamp of when he had sent texts and when the baby was born’
Brewers general manager Matt Arnold and Dodgers president Andrew Friedman worked together in the Tampa Bay Rays front office before moving on to their current jobs. Arnold was an assistant to Friedman, who was the executive vice president of baseball operations.
“We had two different trade deadlines with Andrew in the hospital,” Arnold recalled. “One year his appendix almost burst. He was doubled over in a lot of pain and we ended up having the doctor come to the stadium.”
Friedman was rushed to the hospital, where the Rays’ staff spent the trade deadline trying to work out deals while their front office leader was undergoing treatment for an appendicitis.
“We spent July 31 at the hospital with him, medicated, going in and out of consciousness,” Arnold said. “We’re trying to piece together conversations we’ve had with him as he’s in a lot of pain. That was pretty nuts. BJ Upton was involved, but I don’t think we ended up trading him.”
Arnold believes his second Friedman-in-the-hospital trade story tops even a deadline-day emergency appendix removal.
“Something like the next year, he’s at the hospital because his wife is in labor,” Arnold said. “She had a baby on the trade deadline.”
With the team involved in several trade scenarios and the deadline fast approaching, Rays staff members were texting with Friedman the entire time.
“We went back and looked at the time stamp of when he had sent texts and when the baby was born,” Arnold said with a laugh. “It was minutes apart. So we asked him what was going on in there?”
“He said she was kind of propped up, and behind her head, he was texting stuff about the trade. We were like ‘Welcome to the world, Zach Friedman.'”
‘My phone is ringing at the funeral now’
White Sox general manager Chris Getz loved his Uncle Mike. So when his uncle died during the offseason, Getz made sure to attend the funeral and even was asked to be a pallbearer. But on the day of the proceedings, the White Sox top decision-maker’s phone was buzzing.
“There’s a GM out there who if there is interest, he doesn’t stop calling,” Getz recalled. “So I told him my uncle had passed away and I have his funeral, but don’t worry, we’re going to do the deal. I’m not going anywhere other than the fact that I’m a pallbearer at my uncle’s funeral. I need a couple hours. He says, ‘Cool, I got you.'”
The funeral started, but the calls didn’t stop.
“My phone is ringing at the funeral now,” Getz said. “It wasn’t actually ringing when I was carrying the casket, but it was close enough. I told people at the celebration afterwards what was going on and they were like ‘Hey Chris, Uncle Mike would have absolutely loved that you executed a trade at his funeral.”
‘I’m literally going from the church to the graveyard, on the phone trying to get us $500,000′
Getz isn’t the only executive who has needed to tend to work matters during a family funeral. New San Francisco Giants GM Zack Minasian had a similar experience after his grandmother died last offseason.
“It was this past January. I had to find us $500,000 of international money,” Minasian said. “I’m literally going from the church to the graveyard, on the phone trying to get us $500,000. It was not my best day. And it’s the same church my grandmother got married in. I had my brother [Perry] next to me as I’m trying to hide my phone. He was driving so I could text.”
Zack’s older brother is the GM of the Angels, but it wasn’t Perry he was working to acquire the international bonus money.
“I got $250,000 from the Red Sox for Blake Sabol and $250,000 from the Marlins for Will Kempner,” Minasian said. “I got it done.”
Minasian was asked why not just ask his brother for it. He was sitting right next to him.
“Shocker. He didn’t have it!” the younger Minasian said with a laugh.
‘I’m feeling the texts coming through in my pocket’
Another executive, who was willing to tell his story as long as his name wasn’t used, remembers navigating a Passover seder while trying to pull off a minor deal.
“I was at my in-laws’ temple’s seder,” the executive said. “Not a fancy, formal one, but still. I’m feeling the texts coming through in my pocket.”
At one point, he excused himself to go to the bathroom. That allowed the trade to move closer to the finish line — but it wasn’t done yet.
“I was trying to be respectful, not checking the phone,” the executive said. “But at one point, one of my kids needed to go to the bathroom and my hand shot up. I said, “I’ll take him.’
“I ran out in the hall and took him to the bathroom and real quick called the other team to get the ball rolling. It definitely wasn’t easy, but we got the deal done.”
Communication issues
‘I knew I was going to lose cell service’
A few days before Christmas during the 2022 offseason, Arizona Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen was in the midst of a family vacation in Hawai’i — and also working the phones for a major trade during what is usually a rare quiet stretch for MLB execs.
Executives never know exactly when a deal is going to line up, but Hazen had a feeling he might be caught in a tough spot being so far from his home base.
“I was trying to finalize the Daulton Varsho/Gabriel Moreno/Lourdes Gurriel trade [with the Blue Jays],” Hazen said. “I talked to [Brian Cashman] in the morning, I talked to another team later, and I finalized the deal with Ross [Atkins] right before we were supposed to go zip lining that day.
“I was with my kids. We are driving to the middle of nowhere in Maui, and I knew I was going to lose cell service. We have a time slot for the zip lining we have to get to. I had my oldest kid driving and I was trying to get a hold of Varsho to tell him about the trade and I couldn’t. And we were getting closer and closer to the abyss, knowing I was going to lose service.”
Hazen couldn’t find Varsho anywhere and was told the outfielder could be “in a tree hunting somewhere.” This put Hazen in a time crunch to inform the player he would be included in a deal, but eventually he got a hold of him to tell him of the trade. Now he wanted to talk with the guys he was acquiring.
“When we get to the bottom of the gully, there is no cell service, so I’m hoping the zip line company has Wi-Fi to use,” Hazen said. “And they were like ‘The Wi-Fi just went down.’ I could not believe it. So I had not talked to Gurriel or Moreno yet. So I drop the kids off at the zip line and tell them I’ll be back when I can, and I drive back to the closest town so I could get cell service.”
Hazen sat at a restaurant, called his players and then headed back to his kids.
“They were halfway through zip-lining,” Hazen said. “They didn’t mind. At least, I don’t think so.”
‘He whipped the phone to me and he said, “Finish the Roberts deal”‘
Current Cubs president Jed Hoyer was a young executive with the Boston Red Sox in 2004, working under GM Theo Epstein during a tumultuous trade deadline.
Boston was seemingly having talks with everyone in the league, eventually trading star shortstop Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs in a blockbuster, four-team trade. The team was also trying to trade for a base-stealing player named Dave Roberts.
“Theo was trying to finish the Nomar deal on like an old-school phone,” Hoyer said. “At one point, he whipped the phone to me and he said, ‘Finish the Roberts deal.’ But I couldn’t understand [Dodgers GM] Paul DePodesta on the phone. It was a choppy connection.”
After Hoyer hung up, Epstein asked him if he got the deal done.
“I just looked at him and said, ‘I think so?’ with a shrug,” Hoyer said with a laugh. “I think we’re good, but not sure.”
Hoyer noted what that trade led to a curse-breaking title in Boston and newfound fame for Roberts, whose crucial stolen base during Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS will live forever in Red Sox lore.
“And now he might be a Hall of Fame manager,” Hoyer said. “Glad it worked out.”
‘All of a sudden the skies open up, it’s pouring, and I can’t hear on my cell phone’
In July 2009, St. Louis Cardinals executive John Mozeliak was getting ready to play golf when trade talks began to heat up.
“I wasn’t a golfer but I got invited by a friend to play at St. Louis Country Club,” Mozeliak recalled.
The calls he was getting came from Athletics GM Billy Beane with the two sides discussing a deal involving slugger Matt Holliday.
“All of a sudden the skies open up, it’s pouring, and I can’t hear on my cell phone,” Mozeliak said. “It was just disastrous. And by the way, I only played three holes because my phone was just blowing up.”
Mozeliak headed back to his car — to stay dry and find some quiet. And also to avoid trouble at the club.
“I ended up having to call our Double-A manager to get his opinion on a couple of players that were going to Oakland, trying to orchestrate all of this at a very exclusive country club where you’re not supposed to be on your cell phone,” Mozeliak said. “I’m sitting in my car getting pelted by small hailstones and rain.”
The conversation carried on through dinner time, when Mozeliak was due to be with his family and his friend’s family.
“We’re having dinner at Dewey’s Pizza, which is a local pizzeria in New City,” he said. “And so there I’m having to just not focus on this family dinner. I already missed 15 holes of golf, but by the time that dinner ended, we had a deal and we got Matt Holliday.”
With the help of their new slugger, the Cardinals went on to win 91 games and the NL Central.
“You’re not in your office, you’re not in your normal environment to do it but we were able to complete it and obviously the rest was history when it came to having Holliday.”
When chaos reigns
‘We had to tell Drew he was going to be traded — but not for two weeks’
In July 2012, current Cubs GM Carter Hawkins was an assistant in Cleveland.
“We were about to trade Alex White, Drew Pomeranz and two other players to Colorado for pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez,” Hawkins said.
After the deal was complete, Hawkins was dispatched to the farm team in Akron to inform the players they were being dealt.
“Pomeranz was starting,” Hawkins said. “We had to go get him out of the bullpen and tell him. But there was some miscommunication and Jimenez was still in the game for the Rockies that day so the trade was on hold. So we brought them all back in to tell them they weren’t being traded.”
Eventually, Jimenez was pulled from the game and was told he was going to Cleveland.
“So we brought all the guys back in to tell them they were being traded, including Pomeranz. Then we realize it had not been a calendar year since the day Pomeranz had signed and that used to be a rule. You could not trade a drafted player within that first year of his signing. So now we had to tell Drew he was going to be traded — but not for two weeks. By that time, his head was spinning.”
‘All he said was “No, I don’t want to trade him.” No reason. Just “No!” I couldn’t believe it’
Jim Duquette and Mike Flanagan were the co-GMs of the Baltimore Orioles in 2006 and the duo was working hard on a July deal involving slugger Miguel Tejada after getting permission from ownership to trade him.
“We spent like 16-hour days sorting through the level of interest,” Duquette recalled. “We had it narrowed down to three teams: the Mets, Astros and Angels. I mean we worked hard on this deal.”
The duo determined the Angels had the best offer.
“It was a significant trade,” Duquette said. “We had a chance to get Bartolo Colon and Erick Aybar or even Ervin Santana. It would have changed our organization.”
When they were ready, Duquette and Flanagan marched down to owner Peter Angelos’ law office to present the offers and their suggestions to him.
“I had a whiteboard,” Duquette explained. “We put down all of the names on it. It was a whole elaborate presentation to Peter. We’re up against the deadline. We sat there for 30 minutes going through all the options.
“At the end of it, he pauses, looks up at us both and all he said was, ‘No, I don’t want to trade him.’ No reason. Just ‘No!’ I couldn’t believe it.”
A few years later, Duquette had a laugh at his cousin Dan’s expense when nearly the same thing happened to him. In 2017, the Cubs and Astros were both vying to trade with Baltimore for reliever Zack Britton. Dan was now the Orioles’ general manager and was fielding offers.
“Theo [Epstein] opted out of the running for Britton,” Jim Duquette recalled. “He didn’t want to wait around for Peter [Angelos]. The Astros rolled the dice and waited. And Peter said no to that too. They got stuck with nobody. If you remember, one of their players even criticized ownership for doing nothing but that’s only because Angelos said no at the last minute.”
‘Frankly, we got that done well after the deadline’
In 2008, Hoyer’s Red Sox were looking to move on from Manny Ramirez, who wanted out of Boston.
“Manny was really disgruntled about his contract,” Hoyer said. “He had two club options with no buyouts. He was forcing his way out. We felt like we had to do the deal.”
The deal was “convoluted,” according to Hoyer, because it involved multiple teams as the clock was ticking down on deadline day.
“It looked like it was never going to get done,” Hoyer said. “It was a last-second three-team deal. That was the most confusing one because there were so many cooks in the kitchen. At one point, the Marlins were involved with a young [Giancarlo] Stanton.”
In the end, the Red Sox, Pirates and Dodgers pulled off the three-teamer, which sent Ramirez to Los Angeles and outfielder Jason Bay back to Boston while the Pirates got four prospects.
“Frankly, we got that done well after the deadline,” Hoyer stated. “That was the most manic and confusing one.”
When the trade goes through — for better or worse
‘We didn’t know we were getting a star’
In 2012, Jerry Dipoto was in his first full year as GM of the Los Angeles Angels. He had a good team with All-Star hitters and top-of-the-rotation pitchers, but his bullpen really struggled early in the season.
“May is a difficult time to make any meaningful trades,” Dipoto said. “And we didn’t have a burgeoning farm system to deal from either. But we were able to acquire Ernesto Frieri from the Padres. He was like fourth or fifth on the Pads depth chart.”
Frieri was out of options so the Padres didn’t mind moving him.
“He was like a 1.5-pitch type of reliever,” Dipoto said. “We got him for two prospects: second baseman Alexi Amarista and minor league pitcher Donn Roach.”
The Angels were immediately impressed with their new reliever.
“He played catch down the line the first day and our pitching coach was like ‘Wow, you can’t pick up this guy’s ball at all,'” Dipoto recalled. “He threw a scoreless inning that night and the next night he was closing.”
Frieri ripped off 20 scoreless innings to begin his Angels career and was a finalist to make the All-Star team.
“I distinctly remember [scout] Charlie Kerfeld asking me how I pulled that one off. It’s so hard to do it in May. We didn’t know we were getting a star.”
‘He threw out a slew of names and said, “We will overpay”‘
Trader Jerry, as Dipoto is known, was at it again during the shortened 2020 season, now working for the Mariners. And again, it was the Padres on the other end of the phone. San Diego had a really good team and was looking for some specific help.
“They were trying to fortify and they needed a catcher,” Dipoto said. “We had Austin Nola, who was going bananas for us in that short season.”
Nola was hitting .306 with a 151 OPS+ when AJ Preller called Dipoto.
“We were in full rebuild mode but didn’t have much interest in moving him, simply because it’s a tough position to fill and he’s a great makeup guy,” Dipoto said.
But Preller wouldn’t take no for an answer.
“He threw out a slew of names and said, ‘We will overpay,'” Dipoto recalls. “AJ is that way.”
In return, the Mariners received four players, including Ty France — but it was a second, late trade that year with San Diego that Dipoto liked even more. The Padres wanted reliever Taylor Williams.
“After doing the first deal, we’re inside of 10 minutes until the deadline,” Dipoto said. “We’ve asked for a number of mainstream players. They said no. But they had a guy in their farm system who had thrown one inning as a minor leaguer after being drafted the previous year. Then COVID hit. That was Matt Brash. We were so close to the deadline that I heard AJ cup the phone and yell, ‘BRASH?’ to one of his assistants. Then he gets back on and says, ‘We’ll do it.’
“It’s the only deal I’ve ever done without seeing the medicals. There was no time. But Brash has been good for us.”
‘To this day, I don’t think Kazmir knows the full story of why we traded him’
When asked about his most interesting deals, Jim Duquette immediately thought of the oft-discussed trade of prospect Scott Kazmir during his time as GM of the Mets — with some insight even hard-core Mets fans may not know.
In July 2004, Duquette traded Kazmir to the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays for starter Victor Zambrano. But few knew that an off-the-field sponsorship would have a lasting impact on the deal.
“A lot of it centered on the medical,” Duquette said. “[Kazmir] was high risk.”
Kazmir was a first-round pick, but the Mets were worried about his health from the time they drafted him on. They did the deal after clearing Zambrano of any medical concerns of his own. And that backfired on them.
“It didn’t help that we had an inexperienced ortho group that had just started overseeing our entire medical staff in 2003, after their hospital had signed a multiyear sponsorship deal with the organization,” Duquette said. “The ultimate irony is Kazmir never got injured while Zambrano was cleared and got injured after three starts. It was a double whammy.”
Zambrano missed the rest of 2004 but was healthy in 2005 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2006. Kazmir eventually did get hurt but first provided the Rays and later the Angels with several productive seasons before needing Tommy John surgery in 2011.
“To this day, I don’t think Kazmir knows the full story of why we traded him,” Duquette said.
When the deal falls apart
‘For an hour we thought we were getting Felix Hernandez’
Before joining the Giants in 2018, Zack Minasian spent 14 years in the Brewers. During one of his seasons under GM Doug Melvin, the team thought it had a deal for one of the game’s top pitchers.
Milwaukee was deep in conversations with the Seattle Mariners, who had a former Brewers executive, Jack Zduriencik, serving as GM.
“Jack and Doug were talking about a trade that would have sent Felix Hernandez to Milwaukee,” Minasian recalled. “At one point, we thought Jack had agreed to it but he needed to make one other move before we could finalize it.
“It didn’t happen, but for an hour we thought we were getting Felix Hernandez. We were nervous, anxious, excited and just waiting.”
That is not the only time a trade that failed to come to fruition created a memory for Minasian. After a trade with the Mets involving Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler fell through, Minasian ended up at a bar while the front office was looking at other potential deals.
“One of my friends owned a place in Milwaukee,” he said. “I got a call from Doug while I was there and I had to go in the basement of the bar where all the liquor is being stored, huddled in the back corner, going through Astros prospects.
“You have to do what you have to do, right?”
‘We don’t get Gallen if we make that trade’
Sometimes a trade that fell through can turn out to be a blessing in disguise for a team. Hazen remembers such a trade during his second trade deadline as Diamondbacks GM.
As trade season heated up, Arizona was running neck and neck with the Los Angeles Dodgers in a battle for the top spot in the National League and the teams were among the top suitors for the prize of the deadline: Baltimore star Manny Machado, who was set to hit free agency after the season.
Ultimately, Machado went to the Dodgers and L.A. won the NL West and reached the World Series. But the ripple effects of Arizona not landing Machado helped the D-backs make a World Series appearance of their own in 2023.
“We tried to get Manny Machado from the Orioles in 2018 and Jazz Chisholm would have been in that trade,” Hazen said. “We didn’t trade Jazz there but that got us Zac Gallen in 2019. We don’t get Gallen if we make that trade for Machado, so you never know.”
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Bill Connelly
To be the man, you have to beat the man. It’s the mantra of Charlotte-based wrestling great Ric Flair, and it pretty reliably describes the annual title race in the Charlotte-based ACC. For 14 straight years, the ACC crown has gone to either Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers or to someone who managed to beat them in the regular season.
Over the past 10 of those 14 years, Clemson has won eight titles. Even as the Tigers’ status as a national championship contender diminished — they’ve finished from 13th to 20th in the AP poll for four consecutive years after six straight top-four finishes — they’ve split the past four conference titles. Last year they became the first bid thief of the expanded College Football Playoff era, knocking off SMU in Charlotte to nab the final playoff berth over Alabama. And with the highest returning production percentage in the country, the Tigers not only head into 2025 as obvious favorites to defend their crown, but they are also garnering top-five hype.
I’ve been pretty skeptical about the latter hype — we’ll talk plenty about that below — but there’s no question the Tigers enter 2025 as the ACC’s most likely champion. Who else might contend? Will SMU charge back after coming so close to a title in its conference debut? Can Miami finally get the offense and defense functional at the same time? Since beating Clemson in the regular season is evidently a prerequisite to ACC glory, can someone such as Louisville or Duke take advantage of opportunities? And what the heck is Florida State capable of after suffering the end-all, be-all of collapses in 2024?
The most geographically ridiculous conference in major college football has countless storylines heading into the fall. Let’s preview the ACC!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC and Indie/Pac-12 previews.
2024 recap
Though Clemson indeed won the race, the ACC’s journey through 2024 was fascinating, with Cal (and its online fan base) generating early buzz and bringing “College GameDay” to town, Florida State suffering a historic collapse, Miami reaching as high as fourth in the polls during a 9-0 start, Georgia Tech scoring a couple of stirring upset wins (and nearly getting a third), Duke and Syracuse each riding close wins to big seasons (they were a combined 13-3 in one-score finishes) and SMU rolling to an 8-0 regular season in ACC play — after nearly losing to Nevada in the season opener and making an early quarterback change, no less.
Louisville lost three conference games by a touchdown or less, Miami’s defense no-showed down the stretch, and after looking like they were in the middle of a lost season (by Clemson standards), there the Tigers were to swoop in, land a spot in the title game and beat SMU with a field goal at the buzzer in one of the best games of the year.
Both Clemson and SMU reached — and lost in the first round of — the College Football Playoff, capping a madcap season.
Oh yeah, and then North Carolina hired Bill Belichick. Can’t forget that.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
Though the national average for returning production is around just 53% this season, the ACC is one of three conferences (along with the Big 12 and SEC) to average 59% or higher. Clemson, at 80%, leads the way nationally, and seven other teams are at 60% or better. The Tigers hit that number in a few different ways. Swinney added three transfers to the Clemson roster, a mammoth number by his standards, but Clemson still does less portal work than any non-service academy in the country. Others, such as Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, don’t do much either. BC actually joins a strange club: Of the teams in the six conferences I’ve previewed to date, only BC, Ball State and Missouri State have fewer than 10 incoming starts from transfers and fewer than 10 redshirt freshman. It’s a pretty odd combination.
Jeff Brohm’s Louisville, meanwhile, does more portal work than most, and among the top teams in the returning production column, Miami, Louisville, FSU and Duke all got there in part through the addition of transfer quarterbacks.
2025 projections
We have some pretty big stratification at the top, where ACC No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 SMU are separated by 10.2 points, larger than the difference between No. 6 Duke and No. 16 Wake. The Tigers are projected favorites of at least 12 points in seven of eight league games and could get their biggest tests from a pair of nonconference matchups against the SEC — LSU’s visit in Week 1 and the trip to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.
Miami’s rating might be a bit surprising. The Hurricanes obviously benefit from how ridiculously good last year’s offense was — they’re still projected to have the best offense in the country despite losing basically eight starters. That will be a high bar to clear, but the defense has a chance to improve beyond 44th, too. We’ll see.
Because of the volatility baked into the projections, Clemson has only about a 2-in-7 chance of winning the league, and Miami, SMU and Louisville could each make a run to the title game. NC State, meanwhile, has a pretty workable conference schedule if you’re looking for a random sleeper.
Five best games of 2025
Here are the four conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points, plus a mammoth Week 1 nonconference game.
LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). There are a couple of other huge ACC nonconference games — Notre Dame at Miami in Week 1 and Clemson-South Carolina at the end — but I love this game showing up in Week 1 because there aren’t many teams I have more questions about than LSU and Clemson. Let’s get a bunch of those questions answered right away.
Miami at Florida State (Oct. 4). At this point, Miami will have already hosted Notre Dame and Florida in nonconference play. But the Canes’ ACC opener in Tallahassee will tell us a ton about both teams.
Louisville at Miami (Oct. 17). One of the bigger Friday night games of the season. Louisville hosts Clemson in November, but the Cardinals’ ACC title hopes might require them to win either this one or at SMU in late November.
Miami at SMU (Nov. 1). Miami has three games on this list within a month of each other. Because Clemson’s projections are so favorable, Miami might be the most important team in the title race — if the Canes don’t make it to Charlotte for the league title game, they will have a huge role to play in who does.
Clemson at Louisville (Nov. 14). Clemson’s tightest projected conference game. The Tigers have to visit Louisville a year after the Cardinals smothered them 33-21 in Death Valley East.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Dabo Swinney (17th year, 180-47 overall)
2025 projection: eighth in SP+, 10.0 average wins (6.8 in the ACC)
Hey there, Tigers fans. More than any other fan base this offseason, you guys have accused me of hating your team because of how open I’ve been in my skepticism toward its top-five bona fides. We’ll get to that, but I should note that none of that skepticism applies to the ACC race.
Again, the national average for returning production at the moment is about 53%. Clemson’s is 80%. The Tigers bring back quarterback Cade Klubnik (3,639 yards, 36 TDs last season) and three of his top four receivers in junior Antonio Williams and sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore (combined: 2,263 yards and 21 TDs last year). Plus, sophomore Tyler Brown, injured in 2024, returns after catching 52 passes in 2023. Throw in the rarest of Clemson rarities, an incoming transfer receiver — Tristan Smith (934 yards and six TDs at SE Missouri State) — and you’ve got a tantalizing skill corps even with the loss of leading rusher Phil Mafah. (Sophomore back Jay Haynes easily topped Mafah by averaging 6.9 yards per carry in a small sample, though he’s coming back from a late-season ACL tear.)
Anchoring all this talent is what should be Clemson’s best offensive line in ages, one that returns four senior starters, including all-conference right tackle Blake Miller. The Tigers jumped to 16th in offensive SP+ last season — a far cry from where the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence offenses ranked but a vast improvement over the 2021-23 units, which averaged a 50.3 ranking. If huge returning production results in improvement (and it frequently does), they could easily have their first top-10 offense in a half decade.
The defense, meanwhile, was ridiculously young in 2024. Eighteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps, 13 of them return and nine are still only sophomores or juniors. That includes absolute stars in end T.J. Parker (11 sacks, 17 run stops), tackle Peter Woods (7.5 tackles for loss at 315 pounds), linebacker Sammy Brown (11.5 TFLs, five sacks) and corner Avieon Terrell (five TFLs, 13 passes defended), plus the rare senior in linebacker Wade Woodaz (15 run stops). And Purdue DE transfer Will Heldt (11 TFLs on a dismal defense) could add some star power as well. After the defense got worse for three straight years under coordinator Wes Goodwin, Swinney sought out a steadier set of hands in former Penn State DC Tom Allen. Improvement is likely, and a first defensive SP+ top-10 ranking since 2021 isn’t out of the question.
It’s a no-brainer to place Clemson atop the ACC pile. That makes the Tigers one of the surest picks to make the CFP. Where I struggle is when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games.
For starters, with all of those playmakers, Clemson’s defense ranked only 51st in success rate allowed and 103rd in yards allowed per successful play and registered its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012. The run defense was mediocre even with Woods’ efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great.
The Tigers didn’t stand out in terms of offensive explosiveness either. Mafah and Haynes produced some lovely big runs, but the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion, even with some random explosiveness from Wesco and Moore. They could obviously be capable of far more, but I fear the preseason top-five rankings are overreactions to just a couple of big catches from Moore in the CFP loss to Texas. Plus, Clemson benefited significantly from turnover luck, especially in the ACC title game, and without those bounces in Charlotte, there’s no way we’re talking about a top-five team here.
But that’s the hater talking, I guess. I’m excited about watching Clemson in 2025, primarily because we’ll get to find out exactly what a Swinney program is capable of in the mid-2020s. If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it’s going to come with this wonderfully experienced team. If the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again, it will be with Klubnik distributing to Wesco, Moore, Haynes & Co. If the defense is going to rebound, it’s going to be with this combination of experience and a new, proven DC. It’s going to be a lot of fun finding out what the Tigers can do. And there’s a chance they prove this hater wrong.
Head coach: Mario Cristobal (fourth year, 22-16 overall)
2025 projection: 12th in SP+, 9.2 average wins (6.3 in the ACC)
I just can’t get past it. Trailing by seven points and facing a fourth-and-goal from the Syracuse 10 with under four minutes remaining, Cristobal took the ball out of No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s hands and elected to kick a field goal, hoping that his defense, which had given up touchdowns in four of five possessions and had no-showed for most of the previous two months, could make one last stop. It was painfully obvious that it wouldn’t. And it didn’t. Ward didn’t touch the ball again, and Miami fell 42-38, its ACC title and CFP hopes going by the wayside.
This wasn’t nearly the most disastrous game-management decision that Cristobal has made since taking over at The U in 2022, but it once again crystallized the contradictions inherent in the Cristobal experience. He’s going to recruit like gangbusters, he’s going to field an increasingly talented team, and when it’s winning time, he’s going to make a grave miscalculation.
Still, after a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. At some point, with the right combination of talent and quarterback play, your own game management issues can cease to be part of the equation. (Remember when we thought Andy Reid was a horrible game manager?)
I’m not saying Miami will be that talented in 2025, but there’s at least a chance. Carson Beck comes from Georgia after throwing for 3,485 yards and 28 TDs last season. He alternated between looking like the best QB in college football and throwing baffling interceptions (12 in all), but he’ll have backs Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle (combined: 1,007 yards, 6.1 per carry) and tantalizing North Dakota State transfer CharMar Brown next to him and a deeply experienced line, led by tackle Francis Mauigoa, in front of him. Cristobal had to completely rebuild the receiving corps, which doesn’t return anyone who caught more than 10 passes. I’m not sure he got the job done there, but between wideouts CJ Daniels (Liberty/LSU) and Keelan Marion (BYU) and returning blue-chip youngsters such as Joshisa Trader and tight end Elija Lofton, there might be enough.
The offense covered for the defense as much as possible last season — the Canes actually went 3-2 while allowing 34 or more points — but Cristobal needed a lot of new blood on that side of the ball and got it. New coordinator Corey Hetherman led Minnesota to a No. 11 defensive SP+ ranking in 2024, and he takes over a unit that returns five starters and welcomes nine transfers. The defensive front looks strong thanks to the return of tackles Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. — they combined for 15 run stops and nine sacks despite Bain missing four games — and the addition of tackle David Blay (Louisiana Tech). If blue-chip sophomores Justin Scott and Armondo Blount develop properly, that’s a nasty defensive line. Transfer Mohamed Toure (Rutgers) could team with senior Wesley Bissainthe to form a decent linebacking corps. But breakdowns in the back were devastating last year, and Hetherman has to hope a remodeled secondary fixes that. Cristobal signed four new corners, led by Washington State playmaker Ethan O’Connor and including Jakobe Thomas (Tennessee) and potential nickel backs Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Kamal Bonner (NC State). Returning corner OJ Frederique Jr. could improve, too.
I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.
Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (fourth year, 29-13 overall)
2025 projection: 20th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.3 in the ACC)
Based purely on performance compared with recent history, there might not be a better college football coach than Rhett Lashlee. Before his tenure, the Mustangs’ previous two seasons with 11-plus wins came in 1982 and … 1935; he did it in 2023 and 2024. They hadn’t finished in the SP+ top 25 since 1983-84; they jumped from 56th to 24th in 2023, then to 12th in 2024. When he took over three years ago, SMU was an above-average AAC team. Now it’s defending a spot in the CFP.
Is a two-year sample enough to proclaim Lashlee the best coach in the sport? Probably not. OK, definitely not. But wow. Chad Morris (12-13 in 2016-17) and Sonny Dykes (30-17 in 2018-21) helped to dust this program off and get it back on its feet, but Lashlee has transformed it from head to toe.
The 2024 Mustangs dealt with early QB issues — incumbent Preston Stone was benched in favor of Kevin Jennings barely two weeks into the season — and committed far too many penalties and turnovers. They also made far more big plays than their opponents, went three-and-out far less, created more negative plays and dominated third downs on the way to an 11-1 regular season. They needed one more bounce against Clemson in the ACC title game, and Jennings briefly self-destructed in an impossibly loud environment at Penn State in the CFP, but it was a hell of a season. SP+ had projected SMU as a top-25 team and possible ACC contender, and it still sold the Mustangs short.
The continuity table above says relatively kind things for 2025. Jennings (3,245 passing yards, 436 pre-sack rushing yards, 28 total TDs) is one of about six returning starters on offense, the O-line has a pair of all-conference contenders in tackle PJ Williams and guard Logan Parr, and corner Deuce Harmon and safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Robert Rahimi (a ball-hawking San Jose State transfer) anchor what should be a strong secondary. But although Lashlee is used to living the transfer portal life, he had to do some serious work in rebuilding both the skill corps (which lost its top two RBs and three of its top four WRs) and the defensive front six (which lost eight of the 12 guys with 200-plus snaps). Three Mustangs gained at least 500 yards from scrimmage last year, and four made at least nine TFLs. They’re all gone.
Lashlee added a couple of solid pass-catching backs in T.J. Harden (UCLA) and Chris Johnson Jr. (Miami), and slot receiver Yamir Knight (James Madison) is an excellent efficiency guy. Meanwhile, linebacker Zakye Barker (13.5 TFLs at East Carolina) is nearly a sure thing, and defensive tackle Terry Webb (six run stops and 1.5 sacks at 314 pounds) is active for his size. But disruption up front was vital to SMU’s defensive success, and Webb is the only genuinely proven disruptor among nine incoming transfer linemen. Some newbies and/or youngsters will have to raise their game for SMU to return to either Charlotte or the CFP.
The schedule certainly seems trickier this time around. After nonconference battles with both Baylor (home) and TCU (away), SMU faces all three of the other teams in this title contenders section — Miami and Louisville at home and Clemson away. After what Lashlee and the Mustangs have done these past two years, doubting them seems pretty foolish. But they’ve got their work cut out for them in 2025.
Head coach: Jeff Brohm (third year, 19-8 overall)
2025 projection: 24th in SP+, 8.3 average wins (4.8 in the ACC)
Brohm’s Louisville is a very hectic program. Change never stops. In 2023, he took over a team that had ranked 41st in SP+ with an 8-5 record, sent 25 transfers out, brought 25 in and improved the Cardinals to 10-4 and 34th. In 2024, it was 30 transfers out, 32 in and further improvement to 21st with a 9-4 record. The offense got better each year, while the defense and special teams got worse.
In theory, by your third year, you probably want to have your culture and your own recruits in place, therefore necessitating fewer incoming and outgoing transfers. But that’s not how Brohm sees things. He lost 28 transfers and brought in 30. The Cardinals have some dynamite returnees in running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson (combined: 1,770 yards, 7.6 per carry!), receiver Chris Bell (737 yards, 17.1 per catch), potential all-conference center Pete Nygra, super-disruptive linebackers Stanquan Clark and Antonio Watts (combined: 16.5 TFLs, 11 passes defended) and safety D’Angelo Hutchinson (five pass breakups, five run stops). But those are damn near the only proven returnees. Brohm and offensive coordinator (and brother) Brian Brohm will have their third starting quarterback in as many years — likely USC transfer Miller Moss — and welcome four wideouts, three tight ends and seven linemen via the portal. Brohms typically field good offenses, and they’re clearly used to handling change, but this carousel isn’t slowing down at all.
The defense has indeed trended in the wrong direction of late, so maybe it’s not too scary that 14 of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps are gone. The linebacking corps looks excellent, and Brohm added quite a few proven disruptors via the portal: end Clev Lubin (9.5 sacks at Coastal Carolina), tackle Jerry Lawson (14 TFLs at 295 pounds at Abilene Christian), safety JoJo Evans (seven passes defended and four run stops at Florida International), corners Justin Agu and Jabari Mack (combined: 20 passes defended at Louisiana and Jacksonville State, respectively) and corner/safety Rodney Johnson Jr. (five TFLs, three passes defended at Southern), among others.
Living the portal life means your scouting department constantly has to hit the jackpot. Ask Florida State’s Mike Norvell — a 2022 portal genius, a 2023 portal genius and a 2024 portal disaster — how that can go. But Moss’ QBR (74.4) basically matched that of last year’s starter, Tyler Shough (75.0); the trio of Brown, Watson and Bell is the most explosive in the conference; and there’s no reason to think the defense is any less talented than it was last season. Like SMU, Louisville plays all three fellow contenders (Clemson at home, Miami and SMU away), and the Cardinals travel to Pitt and Virginia Tech, too. That’s an obstacle, and at some point, a trend toward stability would be nice. But Brohm seems to know what he’s doing with all these moving pieces, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Louisville improves for a third straight year.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Mike Norvell (sixth year, 33-27 overall)
2025 projection: 36th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.5 in the ACC)
For all the obvious reasons, I feared a bit of a hangover for FSU last year. The heartbreak of 2023’s unconscionable CFP snub combined with the loss of quarterback Jordan Travis, most of a dynamite skill corps and seven defensive draft picks made the Seminoles regression candidates, even if Norvell said all the right things in the offseason and brought in another solid-on-paper transfer haul.
Of course, if you’d asked me what “hangover” meant, I’d have probably guessed a record in the neighborhood of 7-5. FSU went 2-10! The transfer class produced almost no standouts, and the quarterback situation was even worse than at the end of 2023 after Travis’ injury — DJ Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek were dreadful. The Noles fell from ninth to 58th in defensive SP+ and from 23rd to 114th on offense.
This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But Norvell will try.
The offense, now coordinated by veteran Gus Malzahn, could start almost nothing but transfers, from quarterback Thomas Castellanos (Boston College) to running back Gavin Sawchuk (Oklahoma) to receivers Squirrel White (Tennessee), Duce Robinson (USC) and Gavin Blackwell (North Carolina) to any of six new offensive linemen. Tackle Micah Pettus (Ole Miss), guard Adrian Medley (UCF) and center Luke Petitbon (Wake Forest) are immediately the team’s most proven linemen. Castellanos was honestly an underwhelming addition; he started 2024 well at BC, but injuries and defensive adjustments rendered him mostly ineffective, and he was eventually benched. That said, he’s a speedster who started his career with Malzahn at UCF, and White and Robinson could be excellent.
On defense, new coordinator Tony White inherits a unit with few incumbents. Tackles Darrell Jackson Jr. and Daniel Lyons, linebackers Blake Nichelson and Omar Graham Jr. and corner Quindarrius Jones are solid, but transfers Deamontae Diggs (Coastal Carolina), Jayson Jenkins (Tennessee), James Williams (Nebraska) and Elijah Herring (Memphis) will need to immediately spruce up the pass rush, and tackle depth appears tenuous. There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse? And how many games does Norvell need to win to assure he’s still in Tallahassee in 2026?
Head coach: Manny Diaz (second year, 9-4 overall)
2025 projection: 41st in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.4 in the ACC)
Mike Elko resurrected the Duke program, winning 17 games in 2022-23. But when he left for Texas A&M, Manny Diaz inherited an offense in need of a new quarterback and an overhaul on the line. The defense had been excellent under Elko, but 11 of the 16 guys with at least 250 snaps in 2023 were gone. A reset season seemed realistic.
Looking at the Blue Devils’ output, you could hardly tell there was any change at all.
Duke in 2022 (Elko): 9-4, 42nd in SP+ (55th offense, 29th defense)
Duke in 2023 (Elko): 8-5, 30th in SP+ (63rd offense, 25th defense)
Duke in 2024 (Diaz): 9-4, 44th in SP+ (71st offense, 31st defense)
The run game was a disaster, and Duke’s 6-1 record in one-score finishes camouflaged what probably should have been more like a seven-win season. But Diaz & Co. held the fort.
This year, the offensive line depth appears far stronger, and of the 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps, nine return, including four of six linemen and four of six DBs. Diaz added one of the Group of 5’s best safeties in Caleb Weaver (Sam Houston) and potentially exciting receivers in Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma) and Cooper Barkate (Harvard), but his portal coup came at quarterback, where Darian Mensah comes over from Tulane. Mensah finished his redshirt freshman season 21st in QBR, just a few points behind veterans such as Klubnik (13th) and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King (14th). Mensah’s numbers were strong across the board, from efficiency (66% completion rate) to explosiveness (14.4 yards per completion) to escapability (15.2% of pressures turned into sacks — a good number for a mobile guy). The skill corps is a bit of a question mark: Five of last year’s top seven pass catchers are gone, and Anthony, Barkate and running back Anderson Castle (Appalachian State) might all have to make an immediate impact. But Mensah is awesome, and the line looks sturdy. That’s a good starting point for improvement.
It’s hard to worry much about a Diaz defense, especially one with experience at the front and back. Ends Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. (combined: 20.5 TFLs, 11 sacks) and tackle Aaron Hall (7 TFLs) are good, and corner Chandler Rivers (6.5 TFLs, 3 INTs, 8 breakups) is great. Four of last year’s top five linebackers are gone, and Diaz didn’t pursue any portal replacements, which theoretically means he’s happy with what he has there. Regardless, linebackers are generally easier to replace than linemen or DBs, so Duke has experience where it counts the most. I’m not sure Mensah will have enough help to make Duke an ACC dark horse, but the defense should give the Blue Devils a pretty high floor.
Head coach: Dave Doeren (13th year, 87-65 overall)
2025 projection: 42nd in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
“They’ll need some new disruptors. (Gibson usually finds them.)” That’s what I wrote about the NC State defense in last year’s ACC preview. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson had produced three straight top-30 defenses, per SP+, but he had to replace six excellent starters and needed transfers to fill major gaps in the secondary. Of eight defensive transfers, only two clicked, and Gibson’s track record didn’t prevent State from collapsing to 69th in defensive SP+. Doeren’s Wolfpack were ranked in the 2024 preseason poll, but even with slight overachievement on offense — they were projected 56th in offensive SP+ and ended up 48th — they posted their first losing record in five years.
It’s time for another round of change in 2025. Gibson took the Marshall head coaching job, and of the 16 defenders with 200-plus snaps last season, only six return. Linebacker Sean Brown (13 run stops) and tackles Brandon Cleveland and Travali Price (combined: 15 run stops) are good starting points for new coordinator D.J. Eliot, but after failing to land enough impact transfers last year, Doeren had to seek out even more of them. Cian Slone (Utah State) and Sabastian Harsh (Wyoming) were among the Mountain West’s best defensive ends last year, and Brian Nelson II (North Texas) and Jamel Johnson (Temple) were among the AAC’s most active corners. But this is a lot of change in a short amount of time, and the last time Eliot coordinated a top-50 defense was 2015.
There’s reason for optimism on offense, at least. Quarterback CJ Bailey was decent as a true freshman: He ranked 65th in QBR, right between two mega-blue-chippers — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola was 59th, Florida’s DJ Lagway 70th — and his best moments were great. He was 18-for-20 for 234 yards and three scores in a blowout of Stanford, he rushed for 83 yards and three TDs in a near-upset of Georgia Tech, and he threw for 242 yards and ran for 54 in a rivalry win at UNC. His performance was encouraging enough that when Doeren fired coordinator Robert Anae, he promoted QBs coach Kurt Roper.
Bailey isn’t Roper’s only exciting sophomore. Running back Hollywood Smothers (571 yards, 6.4 per carry) and Noah Rogers (478 yards, 13.7 per catch) were both portal hits, and incoming tackle Teague Andersen (Utah State) was honorable mention all-MWC as a freshman. If development and a new playcaller result in fewer negative plays — the Pack were 119th in turnovers, 116th in stuff rate and 74th in sack rate — this could be State’s best offense since 2021. That could be enough to drive a solid season if the defense doesn’t collapse further.
Head coach: Brent Key (fourth year, 18-16 overall)
2025 projection: 44th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
If you were watching Georgia Tech in 2024, the Yellow Jackets were probably doing something special. They played three top-10 teams and looked like a top-10 team against all three — they upset No. 10 Florida State in Ireland to start the season (back when we thought that was an upset), then knocked No. 4 Miami from the unbeaten ranks with a 28-23 win in November and all but beat No. 6 Georgia during Rivalry Week, eventually falling 44-42 after 114 overtimes. (OK, it was eight OTs.) They otherwise went just 5-5, losing at Syracuse and Louisville, briefly falling apart when quarterback Haynes King injured his shoulder and losing a fun Birmingham Bowl against Vanderbilt.
Overall, they really weren’t different than they were in Brent Key’s first season at the helm.
Georgia Tech in 2023: 7-6, 65th in SP+ (50th offense, 86th defense, 68th special teams)
Georgia Tech in 2024: 7-6, 66th in SP+ (42nd offense, 79th defense, 104th special teams)
Still, making memories can pay off. Key capitalized on those big moments by signing a top-20 recruiting class and holding on to key players like King, running back Jamal Haynes, all-conference guard Keylan Rutledge and defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg. He also added all-Ivy League running back Malachi Hosley (Penn), maybe Florida International’s two best players — receivers Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 1,857 yards and 19 TDs — and a number of exciting defenders, such as end Ronald Triplette (UTSA), tackles Matthew Alexander (UCF) and Akelo Stone (Ole Miss), cornerbacks Kelvin Hill (UAB) and Daiquan White (Eastern Michigan) and safeties Jyron Gilmore (Georgia State) and Cayman Spaulding (Tennessee Tech).
The defensive transfers were necessary, since only seven of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps return for new coordinator Blake Gideon. Tech hasn’t had a top-50 defense, per SP+, since 2017, and since the Yellow Jackets allowed at least 31 points in five of six losses, it’s clear the defense held them back in 2024 as well.
Injuries did too. Nineteen defenders started at least one game, and King not only missed two games, but he was limited in others. His ridiculously physical style will always make him an injury risk, but when he and Haynes are in the backfield, Tech will have a chance to beat any team it plays. There won’t be as many marquee win opportunities — the Jackets play only two teams projected in the top 40 (Clemson and Georgia) — but if that results in more wins, period, I doubt Key will complain too much.
Head coach: Bill Belichick (first year)
2025 projection: 54th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
We’ve had months to get used to the idea of Bill Belichick running a college football program. It’s still going to feel ridiculously odd to see the 73-year-old, six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach leading North Carolina onto the field against TCU on the first Monday night of the season. I had this vision of Belichick deciding to finish his career leading some Division III team like his alma mater, Wesleyan. I can’t say I ever had a vision of him coaching in the ACC.
I still have no idea how it’s going to go. As I wrote in the spring, “Depending on how kind you are, Belichick has surrounded himself with either known entities or yes-men: two Belichicks (defensive coordinator Steve, DBs coach Brian), two Lombardis (general manager Michael, quarterbacks coach Matt) and other key former NFL assistants (offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, special teams coordinator Mike Priefer). He has raved about enjoying popping pads and yelling at tight ends, and he’s regarded as a good enough teacher that, for all we know, this unheralded roster might develop well and thrive. Or not. I have no idea how to set expectations for this.”
I like the roster more now than I did when I wrote that, thanks to the spring addition of South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez (2,559 passing yards, 547 pre-sack rushing yards, 25 total TDs), and Belichick & Co. added lots of heft to the offensive line, signing eight transfers — including 2024 FBS all-conference performers in tackles Will O’Steen (Jacksonville State) and Daniel King (Troy) — who average 6-foot-6, 322 pounds. But the skill corps is terribly unproven: Leading returning running back Davion Gause had 326 rushing yards, and leading returning receiver Kobe Paysour had 365 receiving yards.
The defense, meanwhile, is almost completely starting over. Sixteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps last year, and only three return, all defensive backs. Linebackers Andrew Simpson (Boise State), Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska) and Khmori House (Washington) could all be keepers, though ends Pryce Yates (6.5 TFLs at UConn) and Melkart Abou-Jaoude (9.5 TFLs at Delaware) are almost by default the most proven linemen. Under Mack Brown, the defense usually dragged the offense down — the Heels allowed at least 34 points in five of seven losses last season — and while the word “Belichick” is synonymous with good defense, it might take UNC a little while to grow sound on that side of the ball.
Head coach: Brent Pry (fourth year, 16-21 overall)
2025 projection: 46th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (3.9 in the ACC)
In 2023, Virginia Tech fell as low as 80th in SP+ before the offense caught fire and drove a 5-2 finish. In 2024, the Hokies started slowly again but nearly beat Miami and won three straight ACC games by a combined 60 points before injuries to quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten slowed the offense down. Brent Pry’s team spent about half of the past two seasons flashing top-20 form but went a combined 13-13. And after massive turnover, Pry’s fourth Tech roster will look almost completely different than his third.
Drones is back. He has thrown for 3,646 yards and rushed for 1,377 in 23 games as a Hokie, and he’s a great starting point, but tight end Benji Gosnell is the only other offensive starter returning. On defense, linebackers Caleb Woodson and Jaden Keller are the only returnees who started more than six games. I really like a lot of the transfers Tech brought in, but they had to bring in so damn many.
On offense, running backs Terion Stewart (Bowling Green), Braydon Bennett (Coastal Carolina) and Marcellous Hawkins (Central Missouri) combined for 2,762 yards and 35 TDs in 2024, and Stewart is one of the best yards-after-contact backs in the country. Receiver Donavon Greene (Wake Forest) is dynamite when healthy (which isn’t often), former top-125 recruit Cameron Seldon (Tennessee) could be a nice yardage stealer in the slot, and guard Tomas Rimac (West Virginia) is one of four transfers new OL coach Matt Moore brought with him from WVU.
On defense, end Ben Bell (Texas State) was one of the nation’s best pass rushers in 2023 before missing most of 2024, and five other new D-linemen made at least five TFLs last year. In the back, safeties Christian Ellis (New Mexico), Isaiah Cash (Sam Houston) and Tyson Flowers (Rice) combined for 5 interceptions, 15 breakups and 14 run stops, while corners Isaiah Brown-Murray (East Carolina), Caleb Brown (Hawai’i) and Joseph Reddish (Wingate) combined for five INTs and 24 breakups.
On top of all this, Pry had to hire a new pair of coordinators, choosing a known quantity on offense (former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery) and an intriguing younger coach on defense (former Arizona Cardinals LBs coach Sam Siefkes). With how close Pry has come to success, it’s not optimal to deal with this much change at once, but this roster might have more upside than any Pry has led in Blacksburg.
Head coach: Pat Narduzzi (11th year, 72-56 overall)
2025 projection: 47th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (3.6 in the ACC)
One of the things that makes a college football season so enjoyable is the early upstart run, when a team enjoys some thrilling early finishes, gets off to a fast start and forces you to think of it as a potential contender. It adds such a layer of richness and world-building to the sport.
Pitt’s 2024 season is a perfect example. Coming off of a dire 3-9 collapse in 2023, Pat Narduzzi hired 30-year-old offensive coordinator Kade Bell (Western Carolina), paired him with former WCU back Desmond Reid and former Alabama backup quarterback Eli Holstein, and watched the offense drive a stunning 7-0 start. The Panthers scored late wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia, outlasted another September headline-maker (Cal) and blew out yet another upstart, Syracuse, thanks to three first-half pick-sixes.
And then they vanished from sight. Holstein struggled, then got hurt. An aggressive but glitchy defense sprang more leaks. And as delightful as they looked during the unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way.
Which was the more accurate impression, the start or the finish? Holstein is back, and Bell also has former WCU quarterback Cole Gonzales in tow, just in case. Reid is back after combining 966 rushing yards with 579 receiving yards, and the offense also returns two of its top three wideouts and three starting offensive linemen. The defense returns four of the six players with at least eight TFLs, including linebackers Kyle Louis (17 TFLs) and Rasheem Biles (11.5), plus three physical DBs in safety Javon McIntyre and corners Rashad Battle and Tamon Lynum. Incoming transfer Kavir Bains-Marquez (UC Davis) was one of the Big Sky’s most disruptive defenders last year.
A Pitt game last year was almost guaranteed to feature a lot of negative plays, a lot of explosive plays and a lot of penalties. It was highly volatile ball, even by Narduzzi’s standards, and it paid off for the Panthers until it very much did not. Reid aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.
Head coach: Justin Wilcox (ninth year, 42-50 overall)
2025 projection: 65th in SP+, 5.9 average wins (3.4 in the ACC)
Somehow, Cal may have had an even more memorable mediocre season than Pitt. Because of a 3-0 start and the vaunted Calgorithm, the Golden Bears hosted “College GameDay” for the first time when Miami came to town. They led by as many as 25 points but fell, 39-38. It was basically the story of their season: They finished 55th in SP+ — their best ranking of the entire Justin Wilcox era — but went 6-7 because of a 2-5 record in one-score finishes. To compound the frustration, they proceeded to lose 33 players to the portal. (Wilcox also changed both coordinators.)
Wilcox honestly did a pretty good job of finding upside to replace upside in the portal. At quarterback, he found junior Devin Brown (Ohio State) and blue-chip freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who had originally signed with Oregon. At running back, he grabbed Brandon High (UTSA), Kendrick Raphael (NC State) and former blue-chipper L.J. Johnson Jr. (SMU). Five new WRs and two TEs came in, including a high-level slot receiver in UNLV’s Jacob De Jesus and two of the most explosive receivers in FCS, Idaho’s Mark Hamper and South Dakota’s Quaron Adams (combined: 1,504 yards, 22.4 per catch). And he has five new offensive linemen to pair with two 2024 starters and 2023 starter Sioape Vatikani, who missed a lot of last season.
On defense, quite a bit of last year’s front six returns, including four of five primary linemen, but Wilcox still added four more linebackers and three linemen, including Liberty’s TJ Bush Jr. (nine TFLs) and former blue-chipper Tyson Ford (Notre Dame). The secondary, however, lost seven of last year’s top eight. In come seven DB transfers, including corners Hezekiah Masses (FIU) and Brent Austin (USF).
The defense graded out better last season and returns more experience, but while I’m not sure what to expect from new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, I really like the upside of the transfers there. The schedule is kind, featuring only two opponents projected better than 40th, and if either of the two athletic QBs plays at a solid level and the god of close games smiles on the Golden Bears — two mighty ifs that may not come to fruition — Cal could top last year’s win total.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Bill O’Brien (second year, 7-6 overall)
2025 projection: 62nd in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Bill O’Brien’s first season as BC head coach was a full three-act play. At first, the Eagles were yet another intriguing upstart, holding Florida State to 13 points (again, back when we thought that was impressive) and damn near knocking off an eventual 10-win Missouri team. The defense was physical and frustrating, and quarterback Thomas Castellanos was able to run around and avoid defenders for seemingly minutes on end, even if he didn’t really go anywhere. Even when Castellanos began picking up injuries and losing effectiveness, the defense was good enough to assure a 4-1 start.
A three-game losing streak followed, however, and with O’Brien losing faith in Castellanos, he called Grayson James off the bench against Syracuse. James threw a late TD pass to secure an upset win, and O’Brien elected to start James from there; Castellanos quit the team, and BC won two more games to finish 7-6.
James suffered fewer negative plays than Castellanos and was able to both get the ball quickly to slot man Lewis Bond and connect on some deep shots to then-freshman Reed Harris. In a reasonably small sample, he ended up with one of the better Total QBR ratings in the conference, right between second-round NFL draft pick Tyler Shough and Kevin Jennings.
The James-Bond-Harris combo was intriguing, as were young RBs Turbo Richard and Datrell Jones in small samples. A good line lost a couple of all-conference starters; if there’s not too much of a drop-off there, there should be enough to maintain last season’s late momentum, especially if the Eagles get something out of transfers such as receiver VJ Wilkins (Campbell) and tight end Ty Lockwood (Alabama). Bama transfer Dylan Lonergan joined the QB race as well.
With a secondary loaded with freshmen and sophomores, coordinator Tim Lewis had to play things pretty soft in pass defense. But the run defense was sound, and BC both created long third downs for opponents and made a solid number of stops. The secondary is far more seasoned now, and linebacker Daveon Crouch is excellent. But with last year’s top four linemen gone, O’Brien loaded up with seven transfers up front, five from smaller schools. None had amazing stat lines last year, but if a couple can provide depth for veterans like end Quintayvious Hutchins, a top-50 defensive SP+ ranking is possible.
Head coach: Fran Brown (second year, 10-3 overall)
2025 projection: 56th in SP+, 4.8 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Those hatin’ numbers are at it again. Syracuse won 10 games last season and is now in the “just hoping for 6-6” section. What?
I’ll try to explain: In 2024, the Orange played only three SP+ top-40 teams and beat them all, but they went 7-2 in one-score finishes (hard to duplicate), and two of their three losses — by 28 to Pitt and at home to Stanford — were absolutely dreadful. Kyle McCord piloted an efficient, pass-happy offense, but opponents made more big plays, and they were among the most fortunate teams in the league. Despite the 10 wins, they finished 46th in SP+.
Of course, 46th was Syracuse’s best ranking in seven years! And Fran Brown’s first dalliances in the portal produced the Orange’s leading passer, leading receiver, two offensive line starters and four of their best defenders. That’s a good sign.
Things will get tougher in 2025. The schedule features five projected top-20 teams, and the offense returns only two starters. McCord will likely be replaced by either Steve Angeli (Notre Dame) or Rickie Collins (LSU), and with last year’s leading rusher and three leading targets gone, incoming receiver transfer Johntay Cook II (Texas) and a lot of former backups will have to step up. Up front, two starters return, but they’re two of only three guys with more than 40 snaps back, and Brown brought in five line transfers.
Injuries thrust a lot of guys into the starting defense at one point or another, and of the 23 players who started at least once (!), 15 return. There isn’t a ton of proven playmaking here, but safety Duce Chestnut and nickel Devin Grant are fantastic, and sophomore OLB David Omopariola‘s per-snap production suggests he has breakout potential. Brown didn’t load up on transfers, but he did add strong playmakers in tackle Chris Thomas (Marshall) and edge rusher David Reese (Cal) and a young former blue-chip safety in Chris Peal (Georgia).
Between the massive schedule-strength upgrade, last year’s inflated win total and the need for another batch of portal playmakers on offense, the odds certainly favor a setback season for the Orange. But Brown has barely made a misstep so far, whether the hatin’ numbers acknowledge it or not.
Head coach: Tony Elliott (fourth year, 11-23 overall)
2025 projection: 79th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (2.8 in the ACC)
On one hand, Virginia improved to 5-7 last year after back-to-back three-win seasons under Tony Elliott. The defense was solid against the run and on third downs, and the offense showed hints of an identity, with a fast tempo and a decent run game.
On the other hand, UVA played six top-50 teams and went 0-6 with an average loss of 36-17. SP+ saw barely any improvement whatsoever — after averaging a 95.0 SP+ ranking in Elliott’s first two seasons, they were 91st in 2024. They were horrific at both passing (113th in yards per dropback) and stopping opponents from doing so (118th).
After going .500 or better in each of Bronco Mendenhall’s last four seasons (average SP+ ranking: 45.8), UVA has just been terrible under Elliott. And this being the mid-2020s, Elliott will attempt to save his job via the portal. He welcomes 31 transfers to Charlottesville, and a vast majority of them are upperclassmen. Quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas) can wing the ball around, and I really like the running back duo of Harrison Waylee (Wyoming) and J’Mari Taylor (NC Central). I’m not sure whom Morris will be throwing to — Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine and returnee Trell Harris are probably the biggest big-play threats — but thanks to seven transfers, almost the entire O-line two deep could be made up of seniors.
I like the D-line playmakers Elliott brought in: ends Fisher Camac (UNLV), Cazeem Moore (Elon) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) combined for 38.5 TFLs and 20.5 sacks last season, and tackles Jacob Holmes (Fresno State) and Hunter Osborne (Bama) are active for their size. The linebacking corps is probably the best unit on the team thanks to returnees Kam Robinson, Trey McDonald and James Jackson, but with most of the starting secondary gone, UVA will welcome eight transfer DBs.
Will this work? I’d be surprised. And even if it does, Elliott will have to sign about another 30-40 transfers next year just to account for the loss of so many seniors. But the schedule is light, featuring only two projected top-40 teams (and none in the top 20), and UVA is probably better at QB and on both lines than last year. Bowl eligibility is a possibility, at least.
Head coach: Jake Dickert (first year)
2025 projection: 81st in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.3 in the ACC)
Dave Clawson ended up a relic of a past era. He won 157 combined games at Fordham, Richmond, Bowling Green and Wake Forest due to pragmatic program building and player development. He took his time — his win percentage in his first year in those jobs was just .277, followed by .354 in year two, .532 in year three and .698 in year four.
You don’t take your time anymore. It must be said that the best coaches adapt, and plenty have done so as the demands of NIL and the portal have so drastically changed how roster building works. But whether it was Clawson’s failure to adapt or Wake Forest’s failure to generate proper NIL funds — I’m not taking guesses either way — things fell apart pretty quickly for the Demon Deacons. In Clawson’s last two seasons, they went 4-8 with sub-90 SP+ rankings. The good players left too quickly, and there just wasn’t enough talent to work with.
If there’s anyone who knows about winning when your best players are constantly looking out the door, it’s Jake Dickert. He went 20-18 in three years at Washington State despite constant turnover. And his first Wake team will be portal-built. He inherits a solid tackle-breaker in running back Demond Claiborne, a sure-tackling linebacker in Dylan Hazen and little else. He brought a few Wazzu transfers with him, including three starting offensive linemen and a solid receiver in Carlos Hernandez. Those linemen will be protecting one of two very exciting (read: scramble-heavy and sack-prone) quarterbacks in sophomore Deshawn Purdie (Charlotte) or senior Robby Ashford (South Carolina). They’ll be running around a lot and potentially throwing to Hernandez and two 1,000-yard smaller-school receivers in Reginald Vick Jr. (Virginia Union) and Karate Brenson (Tennessee State).
Yes, his name is Karate Brenson.
Former Kansas State and Michigan State coordinator Scottie Hazelton takes over a defense that — surprise! — will consist mostly of transfers. Ends Gabe Kirschke (Colorado State) and Langston Hardy (UConn) were nice gets, and safeties Ashaad Williams (North Alabama) and Sascha Garcia (William & Mary) were both smaller-school ballhawks. Led by Hazen, this could become a solid-tackling, make-them-beat-you defense pretty quickly. But it’s still fair to question the overall talent level on both sides of the ball.
Head coach: Frank Reich (first year)
2025 projection: 88th in SP+, 3.4 average wins (2.2 in the ACC)
As far as interim coaches go, you could do worse than Frank Reich. The former Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers head coach — and engineer of two of the greatest comebacks of all time — has the résumé, even if he went just 4-15-1 in his last two years in those jobs. Andrew Luck, the Stanford GM overseeing the program, called in a favor in bringing Reich in after the awkwardly timed firing of Troy Taylor, and no matter what, Reich probably isn’t going to do any worse than Taylor. He went 3-9 in each of his two years on the job, just as predecessor David Shaw went 3-9 in each of his last two years. Stanford’s SP+ ranking has gotten worse in seven of the last nine years, and the last time the win total improved in a given season was 2015. Yikes. After the program’s sudden surge under Jim Harbaugh and Shaw, it’s been a slow-motion disaster for most of a decade.
So yeah, there’s a low bar for Reich. At QB, he and offensive coordinator Nate Byham will try to create something useful out of either senior Ben Gulbranson (Oregon State), sophomore Dylan Rizk (UCF) or redshirt freshman Elijah Brown; the only particularly proven players in the skill corps are smaller-school transfers in running back Tuna Altahir (Eastern Washington) and receivers Caden High (SC State) and David Pantelis (Yale). The offensive line, long loaded with former blue-chippers, doesn’t really have any left. But three starters do return, along with transfers Niki Prongos (UCLA) and Nathan Mejia (Sacramento State). Is there a successful offense in that mix? I don’t see it.
The defense has been horrible for three straight years, but it does have experience and continuity — of 20 players with at least 150 snaps, 15 return. Outside linebacker Tevarua Tafiti, nickel Collin Wright and safety Mitch Leigber are all solid, but the hope has to be that experience and development create something useful.
Things don’t usually turn around for an interim, but at the very least, things probably won’t get worse. Does that count as positive spin?
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