ESPN MLB insider Author of “The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports”
NEW YORK — On Sept. 20, before a game against the Oakland A’s, Gerrit Cole approached the lockers of the New York Yankees relief pitchers. In his previous start against Boston, Cole had called for a bases-empty intentional walk to Red Sox slugger Rafael Devers, a move that precipitated a calamitous collapse. Cole had lasted only 4⅓ innings, placing pressure on his bullpen — at a time of the season when they were all gassed. Cole still felt bad. He promised the Yankees relievers they could rest easy.
“You guys don’t have to do anything today,” Cole said.
Over the next 2½ hours, Cole put on a pitching clinic. He threw nine innings, by far his longest outing of the 2024 season, and allowed just one run on two hits. Even after the game stretched to extra innings and necessitated a one-inning stint for closer Luke Weaver to secure the victory, Cole’s point was made. Despite coming off an elbow injury that caused him to miss the first 2 1⁄2 months of the season and has shaved a tick or two of velocity off his fastball, greatness still lurks within the Yankees’ ace.
He must summon it again Wednesday. The Yankees saved their season with an 11-4 shellacking of the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of the World Series on Tuesday night, and Cole will take the mound at Yankee Stadium in Game 5 with the same burden, trying to send the series back to Los Angeles.
Cole understands win-or-go-home games, having started six in the postseason. And he knows pressure, not just from pitching in New York but for five years carrying the largest contract ever given a pitcher at $324 million. And he wants to be seen more as the guy who turned the most important games of his life into his playground than the one who held up four fingers before Devers stepped to the plate. He wants to be the guy who told the relievers to chill and held up his end of the bargain.
“It was a different feel,” Weaver said. “It was like, OK, Gerrit, you want to go do it, we won’t be mad about it. Do your thing. And he went out and freaking did it. I thought he maybe had 10 in him.
“When you have a top dog like that and he voices it, that’s what it feels like to me for [Game 5]. You feel like they step up in big moments. He’s got a different side to him, and when he gets into that killer mode like he did, it’s going to be a pretty tough task.”
This game — season on the line, win-or-stay-home — is exactly the kind of game the Yankees signed him to pitch. It’s the sorts of game the Dodgers wanted him to pitch, too, when they recruited him during his free agency before the 2020 season before he ultimately chose New York over his hometown team. With the Houston Astros in 2019, Cole had thrown an eight-inning, two-hit, 10-strikeout gem in a winner-take-all victory in the division series. In 2022, he helped the Yankees bounce Cleveland from the postseason with another division series win.
But in Cole’s four other must-win games, his team lost — twice with the Yankees (2020 and 2021), twice with Pittsburgh (2013, 2015). Still, his New York teammates have faith he will deliver in the biggest spots.
“He’s the best pitcher in baseball, hands down,” Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes said. “He’s done it for a lot of years and only gotten better. We all know he has talent, but he studies every at-bat, he studies every guy that he’s going to face. He knows percentages, he knows tendencies. I’m out there trying to compete and throw strikes. He’s out there knowing what percentage this 2-1 fastball has to succeed.”
With Yankees manager Aaron Boone leaning heavily on his bullpen over the first four games, the imperative for Cole to throw well — and get deep into the game — is even more pressing.
Cole has thrown fewer than 90 pitches in each of his previous four starts this postseason. Whether he can match or repeat his six excellent innings of one-run ball in Game 1 — against a Dodgers lineup that grinds through pitchers — will depend on his efficiency. After months of questions about the viability of his elbow, Cole is as confident as he has been this season, hitting 99 mph with his fastball in Game 1.
“I feel now like I’m in good shape,” Cole said. “I have a reserve while I’m pitching. So if I need to dip into the tank, I can go get it, and then I can go get it again. It’s not like a one-time thing. And then familiarity both with myself and my delivery, how I’m moving, how well I’m concentrating the ball in the areas of the strike zone that I want to get — I’m … missing east and west very rarely anymore. Things are more defined.”
Game 5 will mark just the sixth time Cole has thrown with four days between starts this year. Two of those have come in the postseason: a seven-inning, one-run bravura performance in the division series clincher against Kansas City and a 4.1-inning slog against Cleveland five days later.
Even if Cole delivers another gem, the numbers are against the Yankees now. Never has a team faced a 3-0 deficit in the World Series and even forced a sixth game, let alone come back to win a ring. If they win Game 5, they would have to take two in Los Angeles — with a taxed bullpen, a star in Aaron Judge who has struggled all October and a lineup that was feckless over the first three games when the Dodgers weren’t throwing their back-end arms.
Adding to the degree of difficulty is the fact that Los Angeles will counter with one of its front-end starters. Like Cole, Dodgers right-hander Jack Flaherty is a Southern California native, a former first-round pick — and he almost played for the team he will oppose. The Yankees tried to acquire Flaherty from Detroit before the trade deadline. The deal fell apart when New York, wary of his back, requested a different return to the Tigers. The Dodgers swooped in, perfectly content to add Flaherty to their rotation, and he has been brilliant down the stretch, going pitch-for-pitch with Cole in Game 1.
Now they face off again — a chance to pitch his team to a championship at stake for Flaherty, survival on the mind of Cole. On top of that, the start could be a factor in whether Cole opts out of the remaining four years and $144 million on his contract, a move that can be voided if the Yankees add one year and $36 million to the deal.
Cole won’t promise the bullpen a day of rest this time, not with the last complete game in the postseason coming seven years ago. The Yankees don’t need that. They simply want to fulfill the expectation posted on a videoboard in their locker room after Game 4. The clubhouse, it said, opens at 2 p.m. Wednesday. And beneath that, in all capital letters, was less a hope than a mandate:
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
CINCINNATI — Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jake Fraley was activated from the 10-day injured list on Saturday.
He had injured his right shoulder while trying to make a diving catch June 23 against the New York Yankees.
An MRI revealed a partially torn labrum that will eventually require surgery. Fraley received a cortisone shot and will try to play through it for the rest of the season.