College football preview: Rivalry matchups with CFP implications, plus a look at the Big 12
What’s on the line in Week 14? Well, it’s Rivalry Week and the final week of the regular season, so tensions are sure to be high with conference championships just right around the corner.
No. 3 Texas takes on No. 20 Texas A&M in a conference matchup that has quite a bit at stake. As the Longhorns look for a spot in the SEC title game, can they execute in the red zone at Kyle Field on Saturday?
The Big 12 enters the week with a four-way tie at the top of the conference standings. Nine teams still have a chance at reaching the Big 12 title game — what are the scenarios for each?
Our college football experts preview big games and storylines ahead of the Week 14 slate.
Jump to a section:
Rivalry Week | Texas-Texas A&M | Big 12 updates
Quotes of the Week
Which rivalry matchup has biggest CFP implications?
Texas at Texas A&M (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Considering Texas A&M can play its way into the SEC title game with a win against Texas and would surely be eliminated from playoff consideration with a loss, it has got to be the Longhorns vs. Aggies. A&M can still earn the No. 2 seed. There isn’t another team playing in a rivalry game with such a broad range of possibilities. Then there’s the stakes for Texas.
It is two wins away from the No. 2 seed, but if it doesn’t reach the SEC title game, that would no longer be in play. Assuming Texas falls lower than No. 5 if it loses to A&M — which is a safe assumption — the Longhorns would be in line for a difficult first-round matchup. No matter how this game finishes, it will impact the playoff field. — Kyle Bonagura
Arizona State at Arizona (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The matchup between Arizona State and Arizona has CFP implications for only one team, but that does not make this game any less important. The Sun Devils have to win to put themselves in position to make the Big 12 championship game and move up the rankings to try to secure an automatic spot as a conference champion. As it stands right now, the race to the Big 12 title is muddy, with four teams 6-2 in league play headed into this weekend. No. 16 Arizona State (9-2) is the highest ranked among them after reeling off six wins in its past six games.
The Sun Devils would be heavy favorites to win the majority of tiebreakers, if needed, to secure a spot in the conference championship game. But the only way to even be in that mix is to beat rival Arizona, which has won their past two meetings. Though the Wildcats (4-7) are out of bowl and playoff contention, there would be no greater win than spoiling their rival’s season to take home the Territorial Cup. — Andrea Adelson
South Carolina at Clemson (Saturday, noon on ESPN)
Surprisingly, it might be South Carolina visiting Clemson. The Gamecocks rose to No. 15 in Tuesday’s CFP rankings and might have the best chance among the SEC’s three-loss teams to make the field of 12. Unlike Ole Miss and Alabama, South Carolina doesn’t have a truly bad loss on its profile. The Gamecocks likely would have beaten LSU if starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers wasn’t injured in the first half (or, if a few calls had gone their way). They have won five straight since a 2-point road loss to Alabama, recording definitive wins against No. 20 Texas A&M (home), Vanderbilt (road) and Oklahoma (road), and a narrow home win against No. 21 Missouri.
A road win against another CFP-ranked opponent could be enough to get South Carolina in ahead of two teams it lost to (Ole Miss, Alabama). Clemson, meanwhile, will have its eyes on the Miami–Syracuse game, as a Hurricanes loss would put the Tigers in the ACC title game against SMU, with a CFP berth on the line. — Adam Rittenberg
What does each team need to do to win?
Texas: The Longhorns have won 10 consecutive true road games under Steve Sarkisian, the longest active streak in the FBS. But the environment inside Kyle Field on Saturday night will be unlike anything these Texas players have ever experienced. Quinn Ewers and his squad must find a way to play calm and in control if they’re going to get the job done in College Station.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne‘s effectiveness on downfield shots certainly stood out during the Aggies’ 43-41 loss last week. Thorne threw for 301 yards on the night but got 230 of them on six completions. Sarkisian won’t hesitate to go after Texas A&M’s cornerbacks with his playcalling, but his QB needs to be on point with his deep passing. Ewers is 9-of-31 (29%) on throws of 20 or more air yards this season, according to TruMedia, and his 271 passing yards on those throws ranks 121st in the FBS.
One challenge that Sarkisian’s Texas offenses have run into at times in big games: red zone execution. Over the past two seasons, the Longhorns have scored touchdowns on 53% of their red zone opportunities against ranked opponents. This is one of those weeks when settling for too many field goal tries could end up proving costly. — Max Olson
Texas A&M: Follow the Georgia game plan, which is easier said than done if you aren’t Georgia. But to Max’s point, if the Aggies can rediscover their pass rush and pressure Ewers, particularly if they can force Texas to try to beat them throwing the ball, they’ll have opportunities. Against Georgia, Texas was pressured on 39% of dropbacks, and Ewers was 5-of-13 for 46 yards on those plays. On the day, he completed just 44.4% of his throws 5 or more yards downfield.
Last week against Kentucky, Ewers was 20-of-21 for 191 yards and two TDs to receivers in space, according to ESPN Research. But on throws against tight coverage, he was 0-of-10. Arkansas played a three-safety look against Texas, and Ewers threw for just 176 yards, including going 1-for-2 for minus-8 yards and three sacks when under duress in the first half.
If the defense can keep it tight, the Aggies’ offense just has to be opportunistic against a really stingy Texas defense, making plays with Marcel Reed‘s legs and keeping Texas off balance. — Dave Wilson
What’s going on in the Big 12?
There are nine — yes, nine — teams that still have a chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to the conference. That manages to be true while the team that has arguably been the best in the conference in November — Kansas, with wins against Iowa State, BYU and Colorado — is not among the group.
With Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado all tied at 6-2, let’s take a look at the scenarios most likely to come into play.
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If all four win, the title game will be ASU vs. Iowa State.
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In a three-team tie between ASU, ISU and BYU, BYU is out.
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In a three-team tie between ISU, BYU and Colorado, Colorado is out.
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In a three-team tie between ASU, BYU and Colorado, Colorado is out.
In the case of a three-team tie with ASU, ISU and Colorado, it gets messy, so here is the exact language provided by the Big 12:
Got all that? Good. And at the risk of unnecessarily complicating things further, we’ll hit pause before running through all the other possibilities. — Bonagura
Quotes of the week
“Ryan Williams, I mean, yeah, he’s electric. He’s all this and that, but in my eyes, he ain’t really nobody to me. Ryan Williams is himself. He ain’t no big-time player to me. … Like I said, Bama is a big rival team. Every rival team I’ve played, I never lost to, and I will not lose to Bama while I’m here.” — Auburn freshman linebacker Demarcus Riddick
“I’ve said this from day one: I think when you have two programs as large as these two programs are, as close to each other as they are, it doesn’t make a ton of sense for them not to play. So it always felt weird not playing. So now to be playing and to be playing for what we’re playing for? Yeah, I’d imagine it’ll be pretty electric Saturday.” — Texas A&M coach Mike Elko, on facing Texas this weekend
“I don’t think you get really emotional about things like that. I think you’re a lot better coach when you stay composed, and you coach your players, and you teach your players what it’s going to take to win the game. It will be an emotional game, but I don’t get emotional about it. It’s an interstate rivalry. It’s a chance at a state championship. It’s a lot of pride. It’s a lot of history in the game. But the game’s played between the lines, between the players.” — Georgia coach Kirby Smart, on facing Georgia Tech during Rivalry Week
“There’s nothing that needs to be said. If you’re watching Godfather 2 and Hyman Roth is talking to Michael Corleone, you know what’s on in the background — it’s Notre Dame and USC. That’s all we got to say.” — Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden
“We’ve got to have that edge. And we will because we know what’s at stake. We felt what it’s like to not win this game. It is bad. It’s one of the worst things that’s happened to me in my life, quite honestly. Other than losing my father and a few other things, like it’s quite honestly, for my family, the worst thing that’s happened. So we can never have that happen again. Ever. And that’s been the approach all season.” — Ohio State coach Ryan Day, on facing Michigan after three straight losses in the series
“I said what I had to say about the College Football Playoff after the [Ohio State] game. The only thing I’m going to say is we’re sitting in a good spot. But we’ve got to take care of business. That’s that.” — Indiana Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti
“We’re playing for a trophy. We’re playing Missouri. They’re a rivalry game for us. … They beat [the] hell out of us last year. That should motivate us. The problem is a lot of the kids who are on the team and playing weren’t here the last year or two.” — Arkansas coach Sam Pittman, on motivating his team this week against Missouri this week after two consecutive losses in the series, including a 48-14 defeat last fall
Just when you thought the 12-team College Football Playoff was the solution … it might be messier than ever.
Five-loss Duke can win the ACC. Three of the four power conferences will have championship games that feature rematches (and Alabama might have to beat Georgia a second time to stay in the field). If both BYU and Texas Tech are in from the Big 12, someone currently in the top 10 is out.
There also are still plenty of questions: Will the committee do anything with Ole Miss after Lane Kiffin’s departure? Does Miami gain ground on Notre Dame? Which are the true bubble teams?
How the committee votes in Tuesday night’s fifth ranking (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) will be a strong indicator of how the 12-team field will look on Selection Day, but it’s not the final answer.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good ahead of the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s top 12 projection. Check back following the selection show for an updated version that will reflect the committee’s penultimate ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game — and they’re already in a precarious position. How far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.
A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see them drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough résumé to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.
It will be interesting to see if Lane Kiffin’s departure affects the ranking of Ole Miss. CFP protocol states the committee will consider “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoff because Kiffin left for another job, but it could get dinged a spot or two if the committee surmises the team won’t be the same without him.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns will earn a promotion Tuesday night, but the win against Texas A&M is unlikely to catapult them into the playoff. Texas probably will be stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if Texas Tech knocks BYU out of the top 12 with a win in the Big 12 championship game, bumping up both Miami and Texas, the Longhorns would still be excluded from the field to make room for a conference champion. If BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably wouldn’t be enough for Texas to get into the field, because even if Texas reaches No. 11 by default, it would still be excluded during the seeding process for a conference champion.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.
The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon could get a small boost this week if Texas A&M drops behind it after losing to Texas.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee could move them into the top four on Tuesday night if Texas A&M falls out after its loss to Texas.
Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. It could be as simple as No. 10 Alabama and No. 11 BYU flipping positions on Selection Day. The difference would be that BYU lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.
Still in the mix: Miami. The Hurricanes will still be the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team on Tuesday night, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring the Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against Alabama and BYU — two teams the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. If both of those teams lose their respective conference championship games, it would open the door for Miami to possibly enter the 12-team field with Notre Dame.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No. 9, the Irish are safely in the field — if they can stay there through conference championship chaos. The concern would be if Alabama won the SEC and jumped Notre Dame, pushing the Irish to No. 10 — and if BYU and Texas Tech both made the playoff. If BYU wins the Big 12, both teams are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded. The Irish will watch and wait and need to hope those two results don’t unfold.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, it will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the only Group of 5 team ranked by the committee, but if North Texas wins, it would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the conference this season.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field.
Bracket
Based on this week’s projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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