Starmer’s next first-time challenge is a test of his worldview – but he’s quietly building a reliable team
Sir Keir Starmer faces another first-time challenge this week.
Still just months into the job, the prime minister will be delivering his first speech to the annual Lord Mayor’s Banquet in the City of London on Monday.
It will be a rare chance to see the Labour leader in white tie and tailcoat in the glistening historical setting of Guildhall, surrounded by the rich and powerful. Unless of course, Sir Keir follows his Labour predecessor Gordon Brown and tries to dress down.
Gordon Brown speaking at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet at Mansion House in London in 2007. Pic: Reuters
Sir Keir is bound to dwell on the economy, the poor inheritance he believes he has received from the Conservatives, and his determination to stay the course set in the recent budget.
By convention, however, the prime minister’s Guildhall speech focuses on foreign policy and Britain’s place in the world.
The grandees in the dining hall, and the waiting world beyond it, will be listening out for how Sir Keir’s thoughts are shaping up since his election victory and after the crash course in international diplomacy he has undertaken in very uncertain times.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in Samoa in October. Pic: PA
Foreign affairs matter for PMs – and the UK
The UK did “take back control” with the Brexit referendum vote. This country is now an independent entity outside the big power blocks of the United States, the European Union, China and Russia, and unaffiliated with the rest of the world in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.
The UK must try to navigate a successful future for itself at a time when there is a widespread populist impulse to put national interests first ahead of any multinational obligations.
The new prime minister has been an easy target for all the time he has spent travelling abroad. The critics who suggest he should have stayed at home need to say which of the official engagements he should have cancelled.
Do they really think he should have abandoned the UK’s place at the top table for meetings of the United Nations, the G7 summit of Western democracies, the G20 gathering of the world’s biggest economies or COP29 on climate change?
Are they saying he wasted his time forging inaugural bilateral contacts with key allies including presidents like Macron, Biden, Trump, Zelenskyy, and Scholz.
Keir Starmer on the plane to the G20 summit. Pic: PA
Debutant prime ministers are often surprised by the amount of time they have to spend on foreign affairs. As they become more experienced, most of them realise it is one of the most important aspects of heading a government.
Diplomacy also has attractions for them personally. It is an area of policy where they deal with equals, other foreign leaders, and can take decisions – at the most extreme staying in and out of wars – without having to manoeuvre around colleagues and parliament at home.
Most cabinet ministers and MPs are rightly preoccupied with domestic issues such as health, education and welfare. This leaves a prime minister and their advisers plenty of leeway for exercising statecraft.
Envoys matter almost as much as the top job
The personal relationships prime ministers and their envoys develop with their foreign counterparts can have a significant impact on the national interest.
Non-elected officials or representatives, operating in so-called “back channels”, are likely to matter more and have more direct influence than in other policy areas.
Consuelo Thiers, a political psychologist at the University of Edinburgh, studies leadership approaches to international relations.
She believes: “Starmer’s personality is characterised by a high belief in his ability to control events, a strong need for power, and a complex approach to decision-making.”
So far he has moved deliberatively, gaining experience and avoiding black-and-white positions. He is also slowly assembling a team of advisers which seems to hark back to the New Labour government of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
The top appointment is Jonathan Powell as national security adviser. Powell was Tony Blair’s chief of staff throughout his decade in power. He was a risk-taking participant in the backchannels which resulted in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland. Before that, he was a career British diplomat, serving in Washington DC.
Former Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams and Labour adviser Jonathan Powell. Pic: PA
Starmer previously hired Powell on a one-off basis to negotiate a settlement over the future of the Chagos Islands. That agreement handed sovereignty over the islands to Mauritius but kept access for 99 years to the Diego Garcia military base for US forces.
But the deal is now in danger of unravelling because of elections in the US and Mauritius. Weeks before he officially starts being national security adviser, Powell is shuttling between capitals again trying to find a compromise.
Marco Rubio, the US president-elect’s nominee for secretary of state, has said the arrangement would “provide an opportunity for communist China to gain valuable intelligence on our naval support facility”.
Meanwhile, the new Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam also wants to review the deal.
The Islands will only be the first example of the big power rivalries between US and Chinese interests which Powell will have to grapple with on Starmer’s behalf.
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The UK’s other essential relationship is with Europe.
Starmer has reaffirmed that there will be no return to freedom of movement, the single market or a customs union with the EU.
But, unlike his Conservative predecessors, he has energetically pursued warmed relations with European and EU leaders.
Rishi Sunak at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in November 2023 – during happier times when he was prime minister. Pic: Reuters
Where the Conservatives set up a Department for Exiting the EU, Starmer has established an EU directorate in the Cabinet Office, separate from the Foreign Office, under the minister Nick Thomas-Symonds.
The government is now advertising for a senior official to reset relations with Brussels. Michael Ellam, who moved with Gordon Brown from the Treasury to Number 10, is expected to get the job, according to The Financial Times. Ellam is a veteran heavyweight civil servant with many connections in the EU having worked as chair of the EU financial services committee during the UK’s membership.
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Olly Robbins and Antonia Romeo, the two front runners to become the next cabinet secretary, also both have significant foreign policy experience, in Brussels and New York respectively, although Starmer may choose one of the two other domestic-focussed civil servants from the four-person shortlist.
His newly appointed director of policy in Downing Street is Liz Lloyd. She was Powell’s deputy in the Blair government and has since worked as an international investor and banker in Africa.
It’s less likely, but some have been advising the prime minister to take up Nigel Farage’s offer to be a linkman to the Donald Trump administration.
As he looks out across the candelabras of Guildhall on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer may only hint at his worldview in the reassuring knowledge that he is quietly putting together a reliable team who will watch his back and look out for the national interest in the unavoidable backchannels of diplomacy.
World
Donald Trump refuses to rule out military force over Panama Canal and Greenland – as he warns NATO to spend more
US president-elect Donald Trump has refused to rule out military or economic action to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland – as he said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state.
Speaking at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Mr Trump made a series of sweeping claims on what his policies could look like when he takes office on 20 January.
He said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state, while he also declared US control of Greenland and the Panama Canal as vital to American national security.
The 78-year-old Republican also spoke of relations with Canada, as well as addressing his position on the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.
Sky News takes a look at some of the key claims brought up during the conference.
NATO
Mr Trump claimed “nobody knows more about NATO than I do”, before adding: “If it weren’t for me, NATO wouldn’t exist right now.
“I raised from countries that weren’t paying their bills, over $680bn. I saved NATO, but NATO is taking advantage of us.”
The president-elect also said members of NATO should be contributing 5% of their GDPs (gross domestic product) to defence spending – the previous target has been 2%.
Donald Trump speaking at Mar-a-Lago. Pic: Reuters
Greenland and Panama Canal
Asked if he can reassure the world he won’t resort to military action or economic coercion in trying to get control of the areas, he said: “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two.”
“But, I can say this, we need them for economic security.”
He didn’t add any further detail around Greenland – which he has recently suggested the US should own or control – but he said the Panama Canal “was built for our military”.
He said the canal was “vital” to the country and China was “operating” it.
Mr Trump criticised the late Jimmy Carter for his role in signing over the Panama Canal to Panama during his presidency, saying it’s “a disgrace what took place” and “Jimmy Carter gave it to them for one dollar.”
Canada
A day after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, Mr Trump said he believed the US’ northern neighbour should become the 51st US state.
He mocked Mr Trudeau by calling him “governor” rather than prime minister.
He argued the US and Canada combined would amount to an “economic force” that would “really be something”.
“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Mr Trudeau responded.
Israel-Hamas war
Israel has been waging a 15-month war on the militant group ruling Gaza, Hamas, since they launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on 7 October which saw 1,200 people massacred and about 250 taken hostage, many of whom remain in captivity.
Mr Trump said: “If those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.”
Nearly 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s assault on Gaza, according to Hamas-run health officials in the enclave.
Analysis: Trump’s warning risks becoming less threatening
Ukraine war
Referring to Russia’s ongoing full-scale war against its smaller neighbour, Mr Trump said a “big part of the problem” was Russian President Vladimir Putin had said for many years he did not want Ukraine involved with NATO.
“Somewhere along the line [outgoing President Joe] Biden said you can join NATO,” he said.
“Well, then Russia has NATO right on their doorstep.
“When I heard the way Biden was negotiating I said ‘you are going to end up in a war’ and it turned out to be a war.”
Asked if he would commit to keep supporting Ukraine during negotiations with Moscow, Mr Trump quipped: “Well, I wouldn’t tell you if that were the case.”
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Offshore drilling
Mr Trump repeated one of his favourite phrases from the campaign trail, “drill, baby, drill”.
On Monday, outgoing President Biden moved to ban new offshore oil and gas developments along most US coastlines.
But Mr Trump, who has vowed to boost domestic energy production, said he will undo it.
“We’re going to be drilling a lot of other locations,” he said.
The public articulation by Donald Trump of a new desired target for NATO allies to spend 5% of national income on defence will surely plunge governments across Europe into crisis mode – not least here in the UK.
Britain presents itself to the world and in particular to the United States as the biggest defence spender in Europe and NATO’s most powerful European military.
Yet Sir Keir Starmer has not even managed to set out a timeline for what he describes as a “path to 2.5%” of GDP being invested in his armed forces, up from just over 2% today.
If the prime minister merely sticks to this pledge, he risks being viewed by the new administration as woefully unambitious and not credible on defence.
Then there is the extraordinary threat by Mr Trump to seize Greenland by force if necessary, even though this valuable piece of territory belongs to a fellow NATO ally in the form of Denmark.
The move – were it to happen – would demonstrate the limitations of the alliance’s Article 5 founding principle.
It is supposed to guarantee that all allies would come to the defence of any member state which is under armed attack.
But what about if the aggressor is also meant to be an ally?
The president-elect also appeared to dash any hope of Ukraine being offered membership to the alliance anytime soon – a core request of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Instead, Mr Trump sounded sympathetic to Vladimir Putin’s absolute opposition to such a move.
He said he would meet the Russian president after taking office – reiterating a promise to end the war in Ukraine, though again without spelling out how.
The outbursts came in a lengthy press conference on Tuesday that marked the starting shot in what could be a make-or-break test for NATO – an alliance of transatlantic friends that rose from the ashes of the Second World War.
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European members of NATO, as well as Canada, already took a battering the last time Mr Trump was in the White House – and rightly so.
The US had for far too long largely bankrolled the security of Europe, while the majority of its allies – including the UK – reaped the so-called “peace dividend” that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, swapping expenditure on defence for peacetime priorities such as economic growth, healthcare and education.
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From 2019: Was this the most awkward NATO summit ever?
Mr Trump made clear during his first term his displeasure about what he saw as Washington being ripped off and vowed to make Europe take its fair share of the burden.
He even warned member states that the US would not come to the aid of an ally that was not hitting at the very least a minimum NATO spending targeting of 2% of GDP – something they had previously pledged to do by 2024 but were slow to deliver on.
Such language electrified allies in a way that even Putin’s initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine, with the annexation of Crimea and attacks in the east of the country, had not.
Yet, with the threat from Russia growing in the wake of its full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, coupled with conflict in the Middle East and the challenge posed by China, it has become clear that this heightened level of expenditure by allies was still far short of what is required to rebuild militaries across Europe that have been hollowed out over decades.
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Mark Rutte, the new secretary general of NATO, set the stage for what is expected to be another push to ramp up investment when he delivered a landmark speech last month in which he called on allies to return to a “war mindset” and “turbocharge” defence spending.
He said this was to counter growing threats, but observers said it was also a pre-emptive response to the anticipated demands of the next Trump administration.
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‘Ukraine needs more arms, less talking’
Either way, it poses a huge challenge for all allies, in particular for Sir Keir Starmer.
He and Rachel Reeves face a choice: change course when it comes to their top priorities of economic growth, hospital waiting lists and new housing and instead invest more in defence or defy what will doubtless be growing demands from the United States to spend billions of pounds more on the UK armed forces – and maybe even leave the country in a position whereby the US would not come to its aid if attacked.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its allied militias are committing genocide in Sudan while waging war against the army for control of the country, Joe Biden’s US administration has determined – two weeks before leaving office.
In a statement sharing the designation on Tuesday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said the RSF and its aligned militias had “systematically murdered men and boys – even infants – on an ethnic basis” and “deliberately targeted women and girls from certain ethnic groups for rape and other forms of brutal sexual violence”.
He announced that Washington would impose sanctions on RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo and seven RSF-owned companies located in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo. File pic: AP
The UAE is credibly accused of backing and arming the RSF – something it has strenuously denied.
When reached for comment by Reuters, the RSF rejected these measures and said: “America previously punished the great African freedom fighter Nelson Mandela, which was wrong.
“Today, it is rewarding those who started the war by punishing (RSF leader) general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, which is also wrong.”
The RSF has been fighting Sudan’s army for territorial control of the country since war erupted in the capital, Khartoum, in April 2023.
The ensuing devastation has been described as the worst humanitarian crisis ever recorded – with over 11 million people forced out of their homes, tens of thousands dead, and 30 million in need of humanitarian assistance.
Sudan, Africa
In December 2023, Mr Blinken announced that both warring parties had committed war crimes, but that the RSF in particular had committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing.
He mentioned this precedent in this latest announcement, adding: “Today’s action is part of our continued efforts to promote accountability for all warring parties whose actions fuel this conflict.
“The United States does not support either side of this war, and these actions against Hemedti and the RSF do not signify support or favour for the SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces).
“Both belligerents bear responsibility for the violence and suffering in Sudan and lack the legitimacy to govern a future peaceful Sudan.”
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This comes twenty years after then US secretary of state Colin Powell described the conflict in Darfur, western Sudan, as a genocide in 2004.
Back then, RSF leader Hemedti was heading up a lesser-known Janjaweed militia that was carrying out state-sanctioned atrocities against civilians.
He was not held accountable then, and many wonder if this latest designation will have any impact on the actions of forces on the ground.
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