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  • Emily Kaplan, ESPNDec 5, 2024, 07:30 AM ET

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      Emily Kaplan is ESPN’s national NHL reporter.

A few days before Thanksgiving, Minnesota Wild GM Bill Guerin was in Columbus to scout the Blue Jackets. After the game, he went for dinner and drinks with Chris Kelleher, his assistant general manager.

As the restaurant started emptying out, a few Blue Jackets players walked in, including defenseman Zach Werenski and his fiancé, Odette Peters. The couple said hello before sitting at their table.

“Should we tell him tonight?” Kelleher asked. “We won’t be able to tell many of the guys in person.”

So Guerin summoned the couple back. “I just need you guys to pick up the check, I forgot my wallet,” Guerin joked. “His fiancé was great, she said, ‘I’ll buy your dinner if you put him on Team USA!'”

“All right, you’re buying,” Guerin said. “Because he’s in.”

As Guerin relayed the moment — which was followed by hugs, smiles and Guerin indeed paying his own tab — he couldn’t help but feel sentimental. On Thanksgiving, the Team USA GM made calls to the rest of the players who made the 23-man Four Nations roster.

Reactions were priceless. Rangers forward Chris Kreider told Guerin he’d do whatever it takes — even scrub the floors. Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin wanted the nod badly but wasn’t sure until he got the call. When Larkin heard he was part of Team USA’s plans all along, the center called it one of the greatest achievements of his career. “Noah Hanifin was like, ‘let’s goooo!'” Guerin said. “He couldn’t believe it.”

Then there was J.T. Miller, who is currently on a personal leave with the Vancouver Canucks.

“He’s working on things,” Guerin said. “But for us to stick with him, I think that meant a lot. It was a great conversation.”

There hasn’t been a best-on-best international tournament with NHL players since the 2016 World Cup of Hockey. The Four Nations Tournament in February — replacing the NHL’s typical All Star weekend — is an overdue showcase of how much the game has grown, especially in the United States. Cultivating a 23-man roster was no easy task for Guerin’s management team, which worked closely with Pittsburgh Penguins coach Mike Sullivan, who will serve as Team USA coach.

“We have arguably the deepest pool of players in a long time in terms of guys who were in the conversation to make this team,” Sullivan said.

Guerin and Sullivan spoke to ESPN on a Zoom call this week about how they built the USA roster. Many of the decisions were tedious. They needed a roster not only to win a short-order tournament, but also to build chemistry for the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan; the first Olympic hockey tournament to feature NHL players in 12 years.

Sullivan stressed that they will only have three practices as a team, which is why the group often used the term “plug and play” in evaluations.

“The biggest thing was hockey sense and versatility,” Guerin said. “There’s hardly any practice time. High hockey sense people. Guys that can play on the first to the fourth line.”

They put a premium on players who could toggle from center to wing, knowing an injury or illness bug is inevitable.

“I would add that competitive spirit was also a high priority,” Sullivan said. “Every team is going to have talent. It’s going to take more than talent to win this tournament.”

Team USA first had to consider the right blend of experience and rising talent.

“We did discuss the Patrick Kanes, the Ryan McDonaghs, guys like that,” Guerin said. “But you know, there’s some accomplished guys on this roster, so we felt like we didn’t really need to do that. The roster spaces were just so precious that hey, look, Jack Eichel has won a Stanley Cup. Matthew Tkachuk won a Stanley Cup. Charlie McAvoy has gone deep into the playoffs every year. So has Adam Fox, so has Jaccob Slavin.”

Sullivan jumped in to mention his former Penguins player, Jake Guentzel, who led Pittsburgh through its 2017 Stanley Cup run with 13 goals, including five game-winners in his rookie season.

“These guys are the next generation and they have won,” Guerin said. “Those are our older guys now, they’re 27 and 28. [Guentzel is] an old man at 30 now, but they have such great experience.”

Leaving off the 36-year-old Kane was especially difficult for Guerin. Kane is considered by many as the all-time greatest American-born player. He’s a two-time Olympian whose many clutch Stanley Cup playoff moments have led to his nickname “Showtime.”

Guerin made a point to meet Kane in person to tell him he wasn’t going to be included. The meeting took place in Detroit within the past two weeks.

“For Patrick, it was especially hard. It was difficult,” Guerin said. “He’s going to be a Hall of Famer, but he’s a Hall of Fame human being too. He’s smart and understands it and he couldn’t have handled it any better. Very supportive. I can’t say enough about how great he was and that was not a great conversation to have, but I just have so much respect for him. I just hated delivering that news, but he understood.”

Guerin said they were down to about three spots undecided over the last two weeks.

“We wanted to give the last couple guys an extra look,” Guerin said. “To make sure we were making the right decisions.”

They resorted back to the same question: who is going to make up the best team?

“This is where the hard decisions come in because there are some guys who are having very good years. We easily have just taken the top scorers or whatever trying to put together a team,” Guerin said. “But our staff needed to supply Sully and his staff with the type of players they need to carry out a certain game plan.”

That meant leaving off 23-year-old Cole Caufield, who ranks third in the league this season with 16 goals. Buffalo’s Tage Thompson, who has 13 goals through 20 games, was also left out. Both will still be in consideration for the 2026 Olympic team in Milan.

Team USA kept their selection process secretive, and Guerin’s work isn’t done.

“After the announcement, I’ll start reaching out to some players because we’re going to need some guys to be ready [as injury replacements],” Guerin said. “I think there’s some players that really have earned that phone call and explanation of why you’re not on the team.”

Guerin said there were a couple players who were on the bubble from the start that “exploded into great years, and really just forced themselves on to the team, which we love.”

When asked who was an example of that, Guerin didn’t hesitate: Winnipeg Jets wing Kyle Connor.

“We didn’t know if we had that type of player already; could we get that from another player?” Guerin said of Connor. “And he just absolutely took off and it was a no-brainer.”

One player who didn’t appear on many mock rosters was the New York Islanders‘ Brock Nelson. But Sullivan called Nelson someone who “personifies versatility.”

“Sully and I went to the world championships together this past May and he was on the team and just talked about it,” Guerin said. “He’s a Swiss army knife. He could do everything. He can play center, he can play wing, he can take face offs, he can kill, he can power play.”

The roster ultimately features two players from Guerin’s Minnesota Wild team: 22-year-old defenseman Brock Faber and 23-year-old winger Matt Boldy.

Guerin said there’s a “maturity” to Faber that’s hard to describe. He competed at the 2022 Olympics in Beijing as a college player and led Team USA in ice time. Boldy burst onto the radar because of his performance at last spring’s Word Championships.

“Matt played on a line with Johnny Gaudreau and Brock Nelson, and ended up leading the tournament scoring,” Guerin said. “Then he came back to Minnesota and had a really good start to his year. But at some point in time too, as we kept getting down to it, he stayed on the list. [Team USA management team] Chris Drury, Billy Zito, Tom Fitzgerald and Chris Kelleher, all guys that are not afraid to speak their mind, they’re not afraid to challenge me and they all think differently and that’s why I have them on the staff. I said, ‘Guys, come see our games. Tell me I’m not doing this just because they’re my players.’ And they’re like, no, we don’t need to. They’re on.”

The team features two sets of brothers — Matthew and Brady Tkachuk and Jack and Quinn Hughes.

“It’s a great story for American hockey and a great story for families,” Sullivan said. “None of us get here alone, and the people who support us most are our families.”

The tournament will also be the first time Sullivan gets to coach his son-in-law; McAvoy is married to Sullivan’s daughter, Kiley. “I’d much prefer to be playing [with] him on my bench than playing against him,” Sullivan said.

Speaking of families, the team will have decals on their helmets honoring Johnny and Matthew Gaudreau, who tragically died in August. Johnny had competed for several USA Hockey teams, including at the World Championships in May.

As for the plan on net, Guerin said “whoever gives us the best chance to win will get the net.” Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck, Dallas’ Jake Oettinger and Boston’s Jeremy Swayman were near unanimous decisions — it would have been a bigger debate had Vancouver’s Thatcher Demko started the season healthy (he has yet to play this season with a lower body injury).

Sullivan said performances leading up to the tournament will dictate the goaltending plan. But it’s widely believed that Hellebuyck has the inside track to be the U.S. starter — though anything could change in two months.

The U.S. will open with a game against Finland on Feb. 13 before a much-anticipated primetime showdown with Canada on Feb. 15 at the Bell Centre in Montreal, broadcast on ABC. Group play concludes against Sweden on Feb. 17. The championship is on Feb. 20, in Boston.

“I think in the past there’s been this whole focus, ‘We got to beat Canada.’ We don’t want to think like that,” Guerin said. “There’s four teams in the tournament. We have to play three other teams. We need to just worry about us and our game and carry out our game plan. And that in my mind, that’s what’s really going to give us success.”

Sullivan had a Zoom call with his coaching staff — John Tortorella, John Hynes and David Quinn — on Monday and gave them a homework assignment: formulate line combinations and a reasoning for why. “We’ll have that discussion,” Sullivan said. “I have my thoughts on it, but what I will tell you is just like here in Pittsburgh, we might start out with certain line combinations, but those things are wretched in pencil, not pen.”

Sullivan wants the team to play a speed game. That doesn’t necessarily mean just skating; speed to Sullivan also means ability to move the puck quickly and change the point of attack.

Sullivan and Guerin both have an infectious enthusiasm when talking about the potential of their team.

“We all feel a certain responsibility to bring our very best because these types of events don’t come around very often,” Sullivan said. “To represent your nation as an incredible honor. I also think the culmination of this group of players is a tribute to a whole lot of volunteer people around the country who have helped these guys along the way get to where they’re at. And those are thankless jobs and there’s a lot of people in rinks all over the United States right now that are doing the same thing for the next generation. And I don’t think they get the credit they deserve.”

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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