
Latest MLB winter meetings updates and rumors from Dallas: Yankees land Max Fried for $218 million
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adminThe MLB winter meetings began Monday in Dallas and it figures to be an action-packed week of rumors, signings and trades.
We’ve got it all covered right here, from our predictions heading into the meetings to the latest updates, analysis and daily takeaways as the moves go down.
Now that Juan Soto has made his decision, what big free agency moves will follow? Who will be the big names mentioned in trade talks? And what rumors will dominate the week? Check out our predictions now and refresh often for the latest as the week unfolds.
Winter meetings news and rumors
Dec. 10 buzz
How Fried’s record deal helps another free agent ace
With the signing of Max Fried, the path has been cleared for Corbin Burnes to ink the highest offseason contract for a pitcher this winter. The Giants remain the favorites for his services which will likely come at a cost closer to $300 million than $200 million. Fried’s deal for $218 million for eight years sets the bar for Burnes who should blow by that number. — Jesse Rogers
Guardians and Blue Jays complete trade
BREAKING: The Toronto Blue Jays are finalizing a trade to acquire three-time Gold Glove-winning second baseman Andrés Giménez from the Cleveland Guardians, sources tell ESPN. — Jeff Passan
Yankees land Fried on $218 million contract
BREAKING: Left-hander Max Fried and the New York Yankees are in agreement on a eight-year, $218 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in baseball history for a left-handed pitcher. — Jeff Passan
Rangers, Yankees among teams showing interest in reliever Martin
Veteran right-hander Chris Martin, who is at the winter meetings, has so far met with the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, a source tells ESPN. Martin, 38, recorded a 3.45 ERA in 45 games for the Boston Red Sox last season after posting a 1.05 ERA in 55 appearances for the club in 2023. — Jorge Castillo
Yankees could look to add new closer
Luke Weaver thrived as the New York Yankees‘ closer after replacing Clay Holmes in September, but manager Aaron Boone said that doesn’t mean Weaver will be the team’s closer next season. Boone said Weaver’s role will depend on where the Yankees “go this offseason.” One possibility is they sign free agent left-hander Tanner Scott to be their closer. The Yankees had interest in acquiring him from the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline before he was traded to the San Diego Padres. When asked about Scott, Boone complimented his stuff and his command improvement. Scott, 30, has a 2.04 ERA in 146 appearances over the past two seasons. — Jorge Castillo
What does Guerrero’s future in Toronto look like?
The Toronto Blue Jays made an aggressive run at Juan Soto and lost out, just one offseason after losing out on Shohei Ohtani. Now, many in the industry believe the course of their franchise could be directed by one player: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the star first baseman who is only a season away from free agency. The Blue Jays have been in talks with Guerrero about an extension but are not considered to be close to one — a type of uncertainty that could impact their ability to attract free agents, many of whom will wonder about the direction of the franchise if Guerrero leaves in a year.
If the two sides can’t agree to a deal, many in the industry believe the Blue Jays will have little choice but to trade Guerrero and begin a rebuilding process. It doesn’t seem as if that is at the forefront of their minds, however; Toronto can easily play out the 2025 season and hope to bring Guerrero back as a free agent. But he’ll hit the open market at just 26 years old, the same age that catapulted Juan Soto to a $765 million guarantee. And the Blue Jays would obviously risk Guerrero’s price elevating further if he has another MVP-caliber season. — Alden Gonzalez
Latest on Arenado’s trade status with Cardinals
With Nolan Arenado being mentioned in trade talks, his agent, Joel Wolfe, spoke about the Cardinals infielder’s status on Tuesday. Wolfe said Arenado would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to a winning team and would be open to moving to first base if it makes sense.
Sasaki’s agent speaks at winter meetings
Now that star Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki has officially been posted as an MLB free agent, his agent, Joel Wolfe, spoke to the media at the winter meetings on Tuesday.
Here are a few of Wolfe’s quotes from the media session.
On what Sasaki values: “He has paid attention to how teams have done as far as overall success, both this year and in the past. He does watch a lot of MLB. He has paid attention to what his [World Baseball Classic] teammates have done. He asks about weather, comfortability, pitching development. He has been watching what other Japanese players in the major leagues are doing and how they are doing.”
On market size: “I think that there’s an argument to be made that a smaller, mid-market team might be more beneficial for him as a soft landing. Might be, I’m not saying it will be — but I really don’t know how he looks at it yet.”
On geography: “He’s never brought that up as an issue. When we supply information to our players, our Japanese players, long before they come over here, one of the things that we provide for them is direct flights from Japan, and the amount of time it takes for your family to come and visit you. And I think about five or 10 years ago, that was something that maybe they weighed a little bit more, but now you can fly direct from Japan to most of the major cities in the U.S. It’s not really that much of an issue anymore.”
Who could land Arenado, Tucker?
With Nolan Arenado and Kyle Tucker being mentioned in winter meetings trade speculation, David Schoenfield identifies potential landing spots for both sluggers — including the New York Yankees. Arenado, Tucker trade fits (ESPN+) »
Why Astros’ Tucker is coming up in trade speculation
Houston Astros owner Jim Crane has not gone beyond six years in his offers to players, and it’s pretty clear that if Kyle Tucker stays healthy, he is going to be offered big money/big years as a free agent next fall. So Houston has a choice similar to Boston’s in the offseason after 2019 with Mookie Betts: trade him for value this winter or next July, or, watch him walk away.
The Astros have indicated to other teams that, as a rule, they’ll listen to offers for anyone on their roster. But rival execs note that while trading Tucker now might help them recoup more value, the Astros — who’ve been in win-now mode since 2015 — have a long history of allowing their impending free agents walk out the door, rather than flipping them in pre-emptive trades. Gerrit Cole, George Springer and Carlos Correa are three of the most prominent examples of this philosophy. “And they’re trying to win (in 2025),” said one rival evaluator. “I have a hard time seeing them trade Tucker or Framber (Valdez).”— Buster Olney
Dec. 9 buzz
White Sox in trade talks on Crochet, Robert
The Chicago White Sox continue to field calls for pitcher Garrett Crochet and OF Luis Robert Jr., though a deal for either doesn’t sound imminent, according to general manager Chris Getz. At least 10 teams have inquired about Crochet as Chicago begins to whittle down potential trade candidates.
“There are some teams that are more sincere than others,” Getz said. “We’re still kind of learning. Those conversations will be ongoing. While we’re here, we’re going to the best we can do for the White Sox, and if that means we make a move, we make a move. But it’s OK if we don’t.”
As for Robert, the front office is hoping prospective trade partners look back to 2023, when he posted a .957 OPS, rather than a 2024 season in which he was hurt and his OPS fell 200 points. When asked if his desired return for Robert is too high based on that recent campaign, Getz said: “It’s an appropriate price tag based on the talent that he brings to the table.” — Jesse Rogers
Padres confident in chances of landing Sasaki
If there’s one team outside of the Los Angeles Dodgers that is widely considered favorites to land Roki Sasaki, it’s the Dodgers’ biggest rivals at the moment, the San Diego Padres. Speaking at the winter meetings on Monday, Padres manager Mike Shildt expressed confidence in his team’s ability to land the 23-year-old Japanese phenom who will be posted Tuesday afternoon and will pick his new team shortly after next year’s international signing period opens on Jan. 15. Shildt brought up the appeal of San Diego, the atmosphere at Petco Park, the opportunity to win the city’s first World Series and A.J. Preller’s prowess in the Japanese market as factors playing in the Padres’ favor.
“I feel like the organization is in a really good place with Sasaki,” Shildt said. “If there’s an open-market competition to be had, I feel like we’re in a good spot for a multitude of reasons.”
Another, perhaps even bigger factor is the presence of fellow Japanese starter Yu Darvish, a close friend and mentor to Sasaki. Asked how much Darvish is willing to help in the recruitment, Shildt said, “Yu will be involved. To what degree, that will be up to Darvish, and of course A.J. will help shepherd that. But I do feel comfortable and confident that Darvish will take his rightful spot in doing what he can.”
Could Soto’s megadeal help Astros’ Tucker?
In the aftermath of Juan Soto’s massive contract, I’m hearing some evaluators talking about the huge payday ahead for Kyle Tucker, who will be a free agent next offseason. Since the start of 2019: an adjusted OPS+ of 142, .882 OPS, 125 homers, 93 steals in 105 attempts, a Gold Glove Award. He’ll be 29 at the outset of the 2026 season. — Buster Olney
Dodgers planning to play Betts at shortstop
Los Angeles Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes confirmed at the winter meetings what has basically been known for a few weeks now: Mookie Betts is preparing to play shortstop next season, and that’s what they’re planning for. — Alden Gonzalez
Giants a team to watch for Fried
As we move forward in free agency, one possible fit worth watching: Max Fried and the San Francisco Giants. He’s being evaluated by contenders in the Northeast, too, but some execs wonder what his preference will be if it comes down to San Francisco vs. the two New York teams and the Red Sox. — Olney
Cardinals manager Marmol on Arenado trade rumors
St. Louis manager Oliver Marmol was asked about handling offseason trade buzz around his star third baseman Nolan Arenado and other veteran Cardinals players.
“You just continue to operate honestly as if they’re going to be there until they’re not. Those guys are doing a really nice job of that. Speaking to Nolan, he’s in a good spot, man. He’s doing what he does best because he’s working hard to make sure he has a good season.”
Red Sox manager Cora on Bregman
Red Sox manager Alex Cora was asked about free agent Alex Bregman, whom he coached during his time in Houston, at his winter meetings manager availability:
“Alex is a good player, man. He’s a complete player. He’s a player that’s been on winning teams, right, his whole career. Good defender. Offensively, he’s really good. He’s a guy that a lot of people are talking about, and I do believe he can impact a big league team, a championship-caliber team. He’s that type of player.”
Angels looking to add infield help
Los Angeles Angels general manager Perry Minasian — among the busiest executives this offseason, having already added Jorge Soler, Yusei Kikuchi and Travis d’Arnaud, among others — said Monday that he remains open-minded on a multitude of options to make his team significantly better in the wake of a 99-loss season. If there’s one clear target outside of the bullpen, though, it’s probably in the infield, specifically a second or third baseman.
The Angels feel set at shortstop (Zach Neto) and first base (Nolan Schanuel). They also have Luis Rengifo, an option at either second or third base. And then, of course, there’s Anthony Rendon, who’s still owed $76 million over the next two years but missed close to 70% of the Angels’ games from 2021 to 2024. The Angels can’t really count on Rendon at this point. They’ll explore free agency and the trade market for help there — likely on a short-term option, with Christian Moore, the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft, not far removed from the big leagues.
“We have to be open to at least looking at that spot and seeing if there are other alternatives that will make us better,” Minasian said of adding a third baseman. “Obviously a healthy Anthony Rendon makes us better, but with the last four years being the last four years, we need to take a look at what else is out there.” — Gonzalez
Cubs in the market for a closer
After an awful year trying to finish off games, the Chicago Cubs have expressed interest in free agent closer Kyle Finnegan. Finnegan was a surprise non-tender after making the All-Star team with the Washington Nationals in 2024. He saved a career-high 38 games with a 3.68 ERA before entering the free agent market. The Cubs have already bolstered their pitching and catching depth, acquiring catchers Matt Thaiss and Carson Kelly while adding pitchers Eli Morgan and Matthew Boyd. — Jesse Rogers
Will Teoscar Hernandez return to the Dodgers?
The Dodgers’ acquisition of Michael Conforto, who agreed to terms on a one-year, $17 million deal on Sunday night, doesn’t take them out of the running for Teoscar Hernandez, sources said. But it could complicate matters. The Dodgers have been in conversations with Hernandez’s reps for weeks but have been unable to bridge the gap on a new deal, at least part of the reason they pivoted to more of a sure thing in Conforto. In some ways, that signing can be viewed in a vacuum; the Dodgers needed a left-handed-hitting outfielder and could still use an everyday, right-handed bat like Hernandez, a clubhouse favorite amid their World Series run. But the Red Sox and Yankees are both expected to be aggressive after Hernandez now that they have missed out on Juan Soto. A Hernandez/Dodgers reunion that not long ago seemed inevitable is no longer as much of a sure thing. — Gonzalez
Who will land Jonathan Loáisiga?
Right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga is drawing heavy interest from several teams, including the New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers and Blue Jays, a source told ESPN. The 30-year-old reliever is expected to land a big league contract after undergoing surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow in April. Injuries have held Loáisiga to 20 appearances over the past two seasons, including three in 2024 before undergoing the elbow procedure, but his electric stuff, headlined by a 98 mph sinker, makes him an attractive bullpen weapon for clubs expecting to contend. — Jorge Castillo
Buehler drawing interest
Walker Buehler is drawing varying amounts of interest from about 10 teams. The end to his postseason opened some eyes after he threw 10 scoreless innings split between the NLCS and World Series — including the final inning of the 2024 Fall Classic to close out the New York Yankees in Game 5. A deal for Buehler could look like a shorter-term bet on himself after he returned from his second Tommy John surgery in 2024 though some teams still see him as the guy who finished fourth in Cy Young voting as recently as 2021. That could mean a long-term deal of 3-4 years is still in the cards as he puts his injuries in the rearview mirror. — Rogers
Estevez a name to watch
Closer Carlos Estevez‘s market is heating up as the veteran reliever could come off the board by the end of the meetings. Now that the Yankees have cleared up some money, Estevez is a fit in New York, especially after the team lost Clay Holmes via free agency to the Mets. Toronto and Philadelphia — the latter is where he ended the season — remain possible destinations as well. — Rogers
Winter meetings predictions
Now that Soto is off the board, who will be the biggest name to sign (or get traded) in Dallas?
Castillo: Corbin Burnes will sign with one of the teams that missed out on Soto — but while he’s arguably the best player left in free agency, is he a bigger name than Alex Bregman, who also could sign in a flurry of moves this week? I say no. So, Bregman is my answer.
Gonzalez: Max Fried. The Yankees and Red Sox have been heavy on him for weeks now, and their pursuits aren’t necessarily tied to signing Soto. Now that the Dodgers, fresh off guaranteeing $182 million to Blake Snell, aren’t necessarily a factor, the path is cleared for one of those two teams to close things up with Fried.
Rogers: Soto signing with the Mets will trigger Cody Bellinger getting dealt. Teams that lost out on the best lefty hitter available this offseason will turn their attention to the Cubs, who have signaled they are open to trading the former National League MVP. The Cubs are keeping close track of their spending these days and will want to move some salary in order to fulfill their needs for the rest of the winter.
What is one move fans might not be expecting that you predict will go down this week?
Castillo: Garrett Crochet will get traded to the Yankees or Red Sox.
Gonzalez: My prediction — and that’s all it is at this point — is that Alec Bohm goes to the Mariners. Jerry Dipoto and Dave Dombrowski are two of the industry’s most aggressive executives, and this pairing makes too much sense.
Rogers: Christian Walker will sign with the Yankees after New York missed out on Soto.
What is the one rumor that will dominate the week?
Castillo: It’s not just one rumor, but the musical chairs played between the available front-line starters and the clubs seeking front-line pitching will dominate the week.
Gonzalez: The winter meetings are the perfect environment to stoke intrigue, and one name I expect to be bandied about in Dallas, whether he’s truly available or not, is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s still without an extension that would keep him in Toronto beyond 2025.
Rogers: Corbin Burnes will be linked to a bunch of the big-market teams with San Francisco at the top of the heap. Will the Giants give him a Stephen Strasburg type deal? President of baseball operations Buster Posey has already spent big this offseason. Why stop now?
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Kiley McDaniel’s favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects
Published
2 hours agoon
July 14, 2025By
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Kiley McDanielJul 14, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- ESPN MLB Insider
- Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
- Has worked for three MLB teams.
Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’
With Day 1 of the 2025 MLB draft complete, it’s time to look at which picks in the first round stood out most.
After weeks of speculation about the various directions the Washington Nationals could go with the No. 1 pick, they surprised the industry by taking Oklahoma high school shortstop Eli Willits — and the Los Angeles Angels followed up with a surprising pick of their own at No. 2 by taking UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner
Though the nature of the baseball draft means that some of the picks we aren’t quite sure about on Day 1 will become clearer when we see how teams spread their bonus allotment around later in the draft, here are the early picks I liked the most and some eye-opening selections along with the top players still available entering Day 2.
Five favorite moves
Mariners and Pirates get their guys
The buzz leading up to the draft was that Kade Anderson was atop the Mariners’ draft board and Seth Hernandez was the top target (after Willits, who wasn’t going to get there) of the Pirates. Seattle was the other team taking a long look at Hernandez, but the shenanigans at the top two picks (more on that later) means that both Seattle and Pittsburgh got their preferred arms.
A’s select Arnold and Taylor
The Athletics had only two picks on Day 1 but received excellent values at each. Jamie Arnold was the top prospect in the draft entering the season and seemed primed to go somewhere between No. 2 and No. 8 after an uneven season. He somehow was the prospect left holding the short straw, falling to the 11th pick. Devin Taylor was in the mix at multiple picks in the comp round but lasted five selections into the second round.
Twins embrace risk with Quick and Young
The Twins took two hit-first college infielders as their first picks last year (Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge), took another one in the 2023 second round (Luke Keaschall), and two more in the top two rounds in 2022 (Brooks Lee, Tanner Schobel) — and also took one with their first pick this year in Marek Houston.
What interested me though is what Minnesota did after that, taking big swings with the upside of Riley Quick (four potential plus pitches but below-average command) and Quentin Young (80-grade power potential with big questions on contact rate).
Phillies try to jump the reliever trade market?
Gage Wood has a chance to start long term but can also go straight to the upper minors — if not the big leagues — and potentially help the bullpen later this season, like a trade deadline addition. The Phillies’ next pick, Cade Obermueller, is another possible starter who also could move quickly as a lefty turning 22 later this month with two knockout pitches in his fastball/slider combo. Odds are good that at least one of them can provide big league value in the next 12 months if Philly wants to utilize them that way.
The Red Sox land Witherspoon, Phillips and Eyanson
The Red Sox are interested in creating more pitching depth and selected a number of interesting arms on Day 1. Kyson Witherspoon had a lot of interest in the top 10, but the Red Sox got him at No. 15.
He’ll need to sharpen his execution a notch and his short arm action is unique, but there’s midrotation upside. Marcus Phillips has a chance to start but could also bring another distinctive look as a late-inning arm with four plus pitches from a low slot and a triple-digit fastball. Anthony Eyanson is a different sort, with fringy fastball velocity but standout command along with a slider and splitter that keep hitters off-balance.
Five eye-openers
Eli Willits at No. 1
The buzz ahead of the draft was that there were three players in play for the top pick and Willits was my third-ranked player in the class, so the same group is what I would’ve been considering — and I love Willits as a player. The bonus will be a factor in evaluating how successful this pick will be viewed — I’ll guess it starts with an eight — but I think this will be seen as a solid decision, as long as Kade Anderson or Ethan Holliday don’t become stars.
Tyler Bremner at No. 2
The biggest piece of late buzz I was hearing is that Bremner was in play at No. 3 to the Mariners. I didn’t hear his name at all at No. 2 so that made this pick the first shocker in the draft.
Bremner was considered in this area (on a deal) because he could easily be the best pitcher in this class — but only if he can develop a better slider, which isn’t a small if. The Angels seem to have a thought about how to solve this, and how he progresses will be one of the more followed storylines of this draft.
Tigers take Yost and Oliveto
I like both players, but it’s fascinating that these two and the most-rumored prep hitter tied to Detroit that they didn’t take (Coy James, who had a tough summer) were all missing strong 2024 summer performances.
Jordan Yost and Michael Oliveto were the only two prep position players in the first-round mix who weren’t in the major national events on the summer circuit, thus creating a lot of uncertainty about how to project them.
The Tigers are right to assume this could create a potential quick gain in value if Yost and Oliveto can perform early in their pro careers, but I don’t remember seeing a team double down on lack of summer exposure in the early rounds.
Orioles take two catchers in the first round, and two pitchers in the second
It’s certainly a bit odd that the Orioles took two college catchers with their first two picks after taking another one (Ethan Anderson) in the second round last year. Obviously, teams don’t draft for big league need — the O’s already have Adley Rutschman — and they need at least two catchers at all four full season minor league affiliates, it’s just odd to see them invest in this position early multiple times. And after all of the position players they have drafted under Mike Elias, they did sneak in two arms on Day 1 with Joseph Dzierwa (a command-forward lefty) and J.T. Quinn (one of my favorite college relievers with the traits to start in pro ball).
Guardians lean into power
The Guardians often draft, or sign internationally, hit-first players who are often underpowered, with Steven Kwan a prominent example. They swerved a lot this year, taking Jace LaViolette with their first pick (I compare him to Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo; he hit .258 this season) and Nolan Schubart (24% strikeout rate, 22% in-zone whiff rate) with their fifth pick on Day 1. Those two have big power and strong pull/lift rates, and LaViolette has the athleticism to play center field, so there’s real talent, it’s just not usually the type that the Guardians have targeted.
Best available for Day 2
Listed by top 250 draft rankings
43. Mason Neville, OF, Oregon
44. Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Ind.)
53. Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (Calif.)
55. Brock Sell, CF, Tokay HS (Calif.)
61. Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (Ill.)
69. Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (N.C.)
70. Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (Calif.)
71. Mason Pike, RHP, Puyallup HS (Wash.)
72. Cam Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (Ill.)
73. Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (N.C.)
Sports
Shocks at No. 1 — and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1
Published
11 hours agoon
July 14, 2025By
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Multiple Contributors
Jul 13, 2025, 11:00 PM ET
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
Sports
2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?
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14 hours agoon
July 14, 2025By
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The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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