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The MLB winter meetings began Monday in Dallas and it figures to be an action-packed week of rumors, signings and trades.

We’ve got it all covered right here, from our predictions heading into the meetings to the latest updates, analysis and daily takeaways as the moves go down.

Now that Juan Soto has made his decision, what big free agency moves will follow? Who will be the big names mentioned in trade talks? And what rumors will dominate the week? Check out our predictions now and refresh often for the latest as the week unfolds.

Winter meetings news and rumors

Dec. 10 buzz

How Fried’s record deal helps another free agent ace

With the signing of Max Fried, the path has been cleared for Corbin Burnes to ink the highest offseason contract for a pitcher this winter. The Giants remain the favorites for his services which will likely come at a cost closer to $300 million than $200 million. Fried’s deal for $218 million for eight years sets the bar for Burnes who should blow by that number. — Jesse Rogers


Guardians and Blue Jays complete trade

BREAKING: The Toronto Blue Jays are finalizing a trade to acquire three-time Gold Glove-winning second baseman Andrés Giménez from the Cleveland Guardians, sources tell ESPN. — Jeff Passan


Yankees land Fried on $218 million contract

BREAKING: Left-hander Max Fried and the New York Yankees are in agreement on a eight-year, $218 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in baseball history for a left-handed pitcher. — Jeff Passan


Rangers, Yankees among teams showing interest in reliever Martin

Veteran right-hander Chris Martin, who is at the winter meetings, has so far met with the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, a source tells ESPN. Martin, 38, recorded a 3.45 ERA in 45 games for the Boston Red Sox last season after posting a 1.05 ERA in 55 appearances for the club in 2023. — Jorge Castillo


Yankees could look to add new closer

Luke Weaver thrived as the New York Yankees‘ closer after replacing Clay Holmes in September, but manager Aaron Boone said that doesn’t mean Weaver will be the team’s closer next season. Boone said Weaver’s role will depend on where the Yankees “go this offseason.” One possibility is they sign free agent left-hander Tanner Scott to be their closer. The Yankees had interest in acquiring him from the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline before he was traded to the San Diego Padres. When asked about Scott, Boone complimented his stuff and his command improvement. Scott, 30, has a 2.04 ERA in 146 appearances over the past two seasons. — Jorge Castillo


What does Guerrero’s future in Toronto look like?

The Toronto Blue Jays made an aggressive run at Juan Soto and lost out, just one offseason after losing out on Shohei Ohtani. Now, many in the industry believe the course of their franchise could be directed by one player: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the star first baseman who is only a season away from free agency. The Blue Jays have been in talks with Guerrero about an extension but are not considered to be close to one — a type of uncertainty that could impact their ability to attract free agents, many of whom will wonder about the direction of the franchise if Guerrero leaves in a year.

If the two sides can’t agree to a deal, many in the industry believe the Blue Jays will have little choice but to trade Guerrero and begin a rebuilding process. It doesn’t seem as if that is at the forefront of their minds, however; Toronto can easily play out the 2025 season and hope to bring Guerrero back as a free agent. But he’ll hit the open market at just 26 years old, the same age that catapulted Juan Soto to a $765 million guarantee. And the Blue Jays would obviously risk Guerrero’s price elevating further if he has another MVP-caliber season. — Alden Gonzalez


Latest on Arenado’s trade status with Cardinals

With Nolan Arenado being mentioned in trade talks, his agent, Joel Wolfe, spoke about the Cardinals infielder’s status on Tuesday. Wolfe said Arenado would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to a winning team and would be open to moving to first base if it makes sense.


Sasaki’s agent speaks at winter meetings

Now that star Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki has officially been posted as an MLB free agent, his agent, Joel Wolfe, spoke to the media at the winter meetings on Tuesday.

Here are a few of Wolfe’s quotes from the media session.

On what Sasaki values: “He has paid attention to how teams have done as far as overall success, both this year and in the past. He does watch a lot of MLB. He has paid attention to what his [World Baseball Classic] teammates have done. He asks about weather, comfortability, pitching development. He has been watching what other Japanese players in the major leagues are doing and how they are doing.”

On market size: “I think that there’s an argument to be made that a smaller, mid-market team might be more beneficial for him as a soft landing. Might be, I’m not saying it will be — but I really don’t know how he looks at it yet.”

On geography: “He’s never brought that up as an issue. When we supply information to our players, our Japanese players, long before they come over here, one of the things that we provide for them is direct flights from Japan, and the amount of time it takes for your family to come and visit you. And I think about five or 10 years ago, that was something that maybe they weighed a little bit more, but now you can fly direct from Japan to most of the major cities in the U.S. It’s not really that much of an issue anymore.”


Who could land Arenado, Tucker?

With Nolan Arenado and Kyle Tucker being mentioned in winter meetings trade speculation, David Schoenfield identifies potential landing spots for both sluggers — including the New York Yankees. Arenado, Tucker trade fits (ESPN+) »


Why Astros’ Tucker is coming up in trade speculation

Houston Astros owner Jim Crane has not gone beyond six years in his offers to players, and it’s pretty clear that if Kyle Tucker stays healthy, he is going to be offered big money/big years as a free agent next fall. So Houston has a choice similar to Boston’s in the offseason after 2019 with Mookie Betts: trade him for value this winter or next July, or, watch him walk away.

The Astros have indicated to other teams that, as a rule, they’ll listen to offers for anyone on their roster. But rival execs note that while trading Tucker now might help them recoup more value, the Astros — who’ve been in win-now mode since 2015 — have a long history of allowing their impending free agents walk out the door, rather than flipping them in pre-emptive trades. Gerrit Cole, George Springer and Carlos Correa are three of the most prominent examples of this philosophy. “And they’re trying to win (in 2025),” said one rival evaluator. “I have a hard time seeing them trade Tucker or Framber (Valdez).”— Buster Olney


Dec. 9 buzz

White Sox in trade talks on Crochet, Robert

The Chicago White Sox continue to field calls for pitcher Garrett Crochet and OF Luis Robert Jr., though a deal for either doesn’t sound imminent, according to general manager Chris Getz. At least 10 teams have inquired about Crochet as Chicago begins to whittle down potential trade candidates.

“There are some teams that are more sincere than others,” Getz said. “We’re still kind of learning. Those conversations will be ongoing. While we’re here, we’re going to the best we can do for the White Sox, and if that means we make a move, we make a move. But it’s OK if we don’t.”

As for Robert, the front office is hoping prospective trade partners look back to 2023, when he posted a .957 OPS, rather than a 2024 season in which he was hurt and his OPS fell 200 points. When asked if his desired return for Robert is too high based on that recent campaign, Getz said: “It’s an appropriate price tag based on the talent that he brings to the table.” — Jesse Rogers


Padres confident in chances of landing Sasaki

If there’s one team outside of the Los Angeles Dodgers that is widely considered favorites to land Roki Sasaki, it’s the Dodgers’ biggest rivals at the moment, the San Diego Padres. Speaking at the winter meetings on Monday, Padres manager Mike Shildt expressed confidence in his team’s ability to land the 23-year-old Japanese phenom who will be posted Tuesday afternoon and will pick his new team shortly after next year’s international signing period opens on Jan. 15. Shildt brought up the appeal of San Diego, the atmosphere at Petco Park, the opportunity to win the city’s first World Series and A.J. Preller’s prowess in the Japanese market as factors playing in the Padres’ favor.

“I feel like the organization is in a really good place with Sasaki,” Shildt said. “If there’s an open-market competition to be had, I feel like we’re in a good spot for a multitude of reasons.”

Another, perhaps even bigger factor is the presence of fellow Japanese starter Yu Darvish, a close friend and mentor to Sasaki. Asked how much Darvish is willing to help in the recruitment, Shildt said, “Yu will be involved. To what degree, that will be up to Darvish, and of course A.J. will help shepherd that. But I do feel comfortable and confident that Darvish will take his rightful spot in doing what he can.”


Could Soto’s megadeal help Astros’ Tucker?

In the aftermath of Juan Soto’s massive contract, I’m hearing some evaluators talking about the huge payday ahead for Kyle Tucker, who will be a free agent next offseason. Since the start of 2019: an adjusted OPS+ of 142, .882 OPS, 125 homers, 93 steals in 105 attempts, a Gold Glove Award. He’ll be 29 at the outset of the 2026 season. — Buster Olney


Dodgers planning to play Betts at shortstop

Los Angeles Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes confirmed at the winter meetings what has basically been known for a few weeks now: Mookie Betts is preparing to play shortstop next season, and that’s what they’re planning for. — Alden Gonzalez


Giants a team to watch for Fried

As we move forward in free agency, one possible fit worth watching: Max Fried and the San Francisco Giants. He’s being evaluated by contenders in the Northeast, too, but some execs wonder what his preference will be if it comes down to San Francisco vs. the two New York teams and the Red Sox. — Olney


Cardinals manager Marmol on Arenado trade rumors

St. Louis manager Oliver Marmol was asked about handling offseason trade buzz around his star third baseman Nolan Arenado and other veteran Cardinals players.

“You just continue to operate honestly as if they’re going to be there until they’re not. Those guys are doing a really nice job of that. Speaking to Nolan, he’s in a good spot, man. He’s doing what he does best because he’s working hard to make sure he has a good season.”


Red Sox manager Cora on Bregman

Red Sox manager Alex Cora was asked about free agent Alex Bregman, whom he coached during his time in Houston, at his winter meetings manager availability:

“Alex is a good player, man. He’s a complete player. He’s a player that’s been on winning teams, right, his whole career. Good defender. Offensively, he’s really good. He’s a guy that a lot of people are talking about, and I do believe he can impact a big league team, a championship-caliber team. He’s that type of player.”


Angels looking to add infield help

Los Angeles Angels general manager Perry Minasian — among the busiest executives this offseason, having already added Jorge Soler, Yusei Kikuchi and Travis d’Arnaud, among others — said Monday that he remains open-minded on a multitude of options to make his team significantly better in the wake of a 99-loss season. If there’s one clear target outside of the bullpen, though, it’s probably in the infield, specifically a second or third baseman.

The Angels feel set at shortstop (Zach Neto) and first base (Nolan Schanuel). They also have Luis Rengifo, an option at either second or third base. And then, of course, there’s Anthony Rendon, who’s still owed $76 million over the next two years but missed close to 70% of the Angels’ games from 2021 to 2024. The Angels can’t really count on Rendon at this point. They’ll explore free agency and the trade market for help there — likely on a short-term option, with Christian Moore, the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft, not far removed from the big leagues.

“We have to be open to at least looking at that spot and seeing if there are other alternatives that will make us better,” Minasian said of adding a third baseman. “Obviously a healthy Anthony Rendon makes us better, but with the last four years being the last four years, we need to take a look at what else is out there.” — Gonzalez


Cubs in the market for a closer

After an awful year trying to finish off games, the Chicago Cubs have expressed interest in free agent closer Kyle Finnegan. Finnegan was a surprise non-tender after making the All-Star team with the Washington Nationals in 2024. He saved a career-high 38 games with a 3.68 ERA before entering the free agent market. The Cubs have already bolstered their pitching and catching depth, acquiring catchers Matt Thaiss and Carson Kelly while adding pitchers Eli Morgan and Matthew Boyd. — Jesse Rogers


Will Teoscar Hernandez return to the Dodgers?

The Dodgers’ acquisition of Michael Conforto, who agreed to terms on a one-year, $17 million deal on Sunday night, doesn’t take them out of the running for Teoscar Hernandez, sources said. But it could complicate matters. The Dodgers have been in conversations with Hernandez’s reps for weeks but have been unable to bridge the gap on a new deal, at least part of the reason they pivoted to more of a sure thing in Conforto. In some ways, that signing can be viewed in a vacuum; the Dodgers needed a left-handed-hitting outfielder and could still use an everyday, right-handed bat like Hernandez, a clubhouse favorite amid their World Series run. But the Red Sox and Yankees are both expected to be aggressive after Hernandez now that they have missed out on Juan Soto. A Hernandez/Dodgers reunion that not long ago seemed inevitable is no longer as much of a sure thing. — Gonzalez


Who will land Jonathan Loáisiga?

Right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga is drawing heavy interest from several teams, including the New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers and Blue Jays, a source told ESPN. The 30-year-old reliever is expected to land a big league contract after undergoing surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow in April. Injuries have held Loáisiga to 20 appearances over the past two seasons, including three in 2024 before undergoing the elbow procedure, but his electric stuff, headlined by a 98 mph sinker, makes him an attractive bullpen weapon for clubs expecting to contend. — Jorge Castillo


Buehler drawing interest

Walker Buehler is drawing varying amounts of interest from about 10 teams. The end to his postseason opened some eyes after he threw 10 scoreless innings split between the NLCS and World Series — including the final inning of the 2024 Fall Classic to close out the New York Yankees in Game 5. A deal for Buehler could look like a shorter-term bet on himself after he returned from his second Tommy John surgery in 2024 though some teams still see him as the guy who finished fourth in Cy Young voting as recently as 2021. That could mean a long-term deal of 3-4 years is still in the cards as he puts his injuries in the rearview mirror. — Rogers


Estevez a name to watch

Closer Carlos Estevez‘s market is heating up as the veteran reliever could come off the board by the end of the meetings. Now that the Yankees have cleared up some money, Estevez is a fit in New York, especially after the team lost Clay Holmes via free agency to the Mets. Toronto and Philadelphia — the latter is where he ended the season — remain possible destinations as well. — Rogers

Winter meetings predictions

Now that Soto is off the board, who will be the biggest name to sign (or get traded) in Dallas?

Castillo: Corbin Burnes will sign with one of the teams that missed out on Soto — but while he’s arguably the best player left in free agency, is he a bigger name than Alex Bregman, who also could sign in a flurry of moves this week? I say no. So, Bregman is my answer.

Gonzalez: Max Fried. The Yankees and Red Sox have been heavy on him for weeks now, and their pursuits aren’t necessarily tied to signing Soto. Now that the Dodgers, fresh off guaranteeing $182 million to Blake Snell, aren’t necessarily a factor, the path is cleared for one of those two teams to close things up with Fried.

Rogers: Soto signing with the Mets will trigger Cody Bellinger getting dealt. Teams that lost out on the best lefty hitter available this offseason will turn their attention to the Cubs, who have signaled they are open to trading the former National League MVP. The Cubs are keeping close track of their spending these days and will want to move some salary in order to fulfill their needs for the rest of the winter.

What is one move fans might not be expecting that you predict will go down this week?

Castillo: Garrett Crochet will get traded to the Yankees or Red Sox.

Gonzalez: My prediction — and that’s all it is at this point — is that Alec Bohm goes to the Mariners. Jerry Dipoto and Dave Dombrowski are two of the industry’s most aggressive executives, and this pairing makes too much sense.

Rogers: Christian Walker will sign with the Yankees after New York missed out on Soto.

What is the one rumor that will dominate the week?

Castillo: It’s not just one rumor, but the musical chairs played between the available front-line starters and the clubs seeking front-line pitching will dominate the week.

Gonzalez: The winter meetings are the perfect environment to stoke intrigue, and one name I expect to be bandied about in Dallas, whether he’s truly available or not, is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s still without an extension that would keep him in Toronto beyond 2025.

Rogers: Corbin Burnes will be linked to a bunch of the big-market teams with San Francisco at the top of the heap. Will the Giants give him a Stephen Strasburg type deal? President of baseball operations Buster Posey has already spent big this offseason. Why stop now?

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Bill Belichick to North Carolina?! What does this mean for college football?

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Bill Belichick to North Carolina?! What does this mean for college football?

North Carolina has sent shock waves across both the NFL and college football landscapes as it is finalizing a deal with six-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick to replace Mack Brown as its next football coach.

Needless to say, we have questions.

Just last year, when a surge of assistants — and multiple head coaches — left the collegiate ranks for the NFL, some thought that would become an ongoing trend as college football shifts further away from amateurism and more toward a professional model. Belichick, at age 72, has done the opposite, and joins his former assistant — first-year Boston College coach Bill O’Brien — as head coaches in the ACC.

Though Belichick has no experience coaching college football, his hire brings a level of panache that even a national championship coach like Brown could not bring. Super Bowl championships will do that for a coach. A program that has been mostly average over the past four decades, UNC has played second fiddle to its hoops team. Perhaps the name recognition alone will begin to change hearts and minds about how serious UNC is about altering the football narrative, and the wins and losses on the field.

So how exactly will this work? What are his biggest challenges? Why UNC? Our reporters weigh in. — Andrea Adelson

Jump to: What CFB fans need to know
Biggest challenges | Recruiting impact
Why UNC? | Playoff chances

What should college fans know about Bill Belichick that they may not from watching New England Patriots games?

He is as much Professor Belichick as Coach Belichick. He loves to teach, taking after his late mother, Jeannette, who spoke seven languages and taught at Hiram College. So those who have played and coached under Belichick have often described the experience as getting a PhD in football, and that extended to media members in news conferences at times. While Belichick was notorious for being tight-lipped in news conferences relating to anything he believed compromised competitive advantage, he would often discuss at length the history of the game. He has a soft spot, in particular, for special teams, “situational football” and UNC alum Lawrence Taylor, whom he coached with at the New York Giants and calls the best defensive player in the history of the NFL. — Mike Reiss


What will be his biggest challenges going to the college game?

Fair or not, one of the main reasons the Patriots moved on from Belichick was the belief that the players coming into the NFL respond to a more relational-type of coaching style. So this will put that belief to the test: How will his old-school, bottom-line coaching approach resonate with today’s student-athletes? — Reiss

There is a reason former NFL coaches sometimes have difficulty as college head coaches, and vice versa. Though college is moving more toward an NFL model with revenue sharing and the transfer portal, one of the biggest differences is everything on a coach’s plate beyond coaching his football team. Belichick is going to have to deal with the Board of Trustees, boosters and donors, and fundraise more than he has ever had to do — that includes the traditional spring speaking circuit to drum up support and interest in North Carolina football. At UNC in particular, football is not the top dog. Basketball is; and fan interest often wanes if the results are not there. Even in the best of times, UNC football has a hard time selling out its stadium and generating the type of fan interest that automatically came with the Patriots. Then there is the world of recruiting — which includes the transfer portal — and sitting in the living rooms of 17-year-olds and their families to convince them to come and play for him, beyond just rolling Super Bowl highlights. There will be questions about playing time, academics (uncharted territory for Belichick) and, of course, NIL/revenue share payments. — Adelson


Belichick says he wants to run an NFL program at the college level. What does that mean for portal and recruiting?

In the near term, Belichick’s hiring will come with an immediate litmus test for his pull in the transfer portal market and on the recruiting trail. North Carolina has seen a handful of starters enter the portal during the program’s weeks-long coaching search, most notably left tackle Howard Sampson, left guard Aidan Banfield, center Austin Blaske and linebacker Amare Campbell. Will any of those players withdraw from the portal to play for Belichick? If not, can he find high-level replacements for multiple holes in his starting lineup? As for high school recruiting, three of the nine members of the Tar Heels’ 2025 class remain unsigned after the early signing period. If Belichick can retain those commitments — most critically the pledge of ESPN 300 quarterback Bryce Baker — it’d mark a positive start on the trail.

However, the bigger picture of Belichick’s ability to recruit high school prospects and build a roster in the portal era stands as perhaps the most fascinating piece of his move to North Carolina. College programs are beginning to look more and more like NFL front offices in 2024, embracing NFL-style models of advanced scouting and roster construction as the power dynamics between coaching staffs and personnel departments shift in the NIL/revenue sharing era. In that sense, there’s never been a better time for Belichick — one of the sport’s greatest-ever roster builders — to land in the college ranks. Outside of Colorado‘s Deion Sanders, there’s now no bigger name in college coaching. But Belichick’s allure with modern college athletes and his appetite for the still-relational business of high school recruiting will be tested, and it’s worth noting as well that North Carolina is far from the only school that will be pitching itself as an NFL program at the college level.

How exactly that looks like under Belichick and the results it produces are what will ultimately matter for the Tar Heels. Regardless, the decision to appoint Belichick marks one of the latest and most substantial signs yet of college football’s ongoing march from amateur athletics to a professional model. — Eli Lederman


How surprising is it that UNC is the place Belichick returns to coaching?

Extremely surprising. UNC has been described as a “sleeping giant” in broad terms because it has the potential to reach another level in football. But over its vast history, UNC has not quite been able to do that enough — even under former coach Mack Brown. Twice. In his first tenure, Brown took the Tar Heels to multiple 10-win seasons and elevated the program, but it did not win any championships. In his recent tenure, Brown took the Tar Heels as high as a No. 10 ranking and developed two NFL quarterbacks in Sam Howell and Drake Maye, but failed to win 10 games in one season over the past six years. Since 1997 — the final year Brown coached the first time around — the Tar Heels have one double-digit win season (Larry Fedora, 2015). North Carolina has not won an ACC title since 1980, and there are reasons for that. Expansion has added more football schools to the league, while others, like Clemson, have invested far more heavily in football. At its core, North Carolina remains a basketball school, and its funding efforts will remain as such. While it appears UNC should have everything in place to win — nice facilities, great recruiting area, a history of producing NFL talent — the Tar Heels have simply not been able to do it consistently enough. Hall of Fame coach or not. — Adelson


Can Belichick and UNC actually make the playoff and/or win a title?

Absolutely. Belichick might actually be one step ahead of his peers, even though this is his first foray into a head college coaching job. Now more than ever, college coaches need to operate their programs like the NFL — with money, deals, moving roster parts — everything Belichick made a living on at the pinnacle of the sport. Plus, he can fill his staff with assistants who can specialize in all of it. His name alone will draw NFL-caliber players, because who wouldn’t want to compete for a Super Bowl-winning coach? Add all of that into the fact that the 12-team CFP is only likely to grow to 14 or 16 teams in 2026 and beyond, and it would be more surprising if UNC didn’t compete for a national title. — Heather Dinich

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The Hoodie’s a Heel: Can the NFL’s greatest coach fix UNC’s tarnished legacy?

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The Hoodie's a Heel: Can the NFL's greatest coach fix UNC's tarnished legacy?

Bill Belichick as the head Tar Heel. Something’s gotta give.

The Chapel Hill hiring that no one saw coming is the football equivalent to one of those old black-and-white films of two locomotives crashing head on. Or some reality-stretching experiment set up by scientists, the immovable object and irresistible force pitted against one another in order to take a peek into the total unknown. When Lieutenant General Leslie Groves asks Robert Oppenheimer, “Are we saying there’s a chance that when we push that button, we destroy the world?”

The NFL GOAT and Rameses the Ram. When they clack their horns in the middle of an open tobacco field, which of their very weighty, very opposite football pasts will prevail by pushing over the other?

Can the greatness of the gridiron genius in the hoodie finally unlock the long-puzzling, long-elusive potential of Franklin Street football? Or will the bottomless tar pits of the Tar Heels‘ football history consume Belichick like they have everyone who has preceded him, going back to the school’s first game, a 6-4 loss to Wake Forest in 1888.

Belichick, 72, is, by any measure, one of the greatest coaches in the history of football, believed by many to be the best to ever wet an NFL whistle. He owns eight Super Bowl rings, six as head coach, along with the NFL head coaching records for Super Bowl appearances (nine), playoff appearances (19, tied), playoff wins (31) and division titles (17). His 333 wins (including playoffs) trail only Don Shula. He is so revered that he has served as a confidant and mentor to the man considered the modern measuring stick for college football coaching greatness, Nick Saban.

But Belichick’s closest brush with college coaching was as a kid, when he attended practices and watched film alongside his father, Steve, a 33-year assistant coach at Navy. Belichick was born in Nashville in 1952, when his dad was on the staff at Vanderbilt. The next year, the family moved to Chapel Hill while Steve coached three seasons as North Carolina’s running backs coach. That’s it. No actual college coaching. Just watching.

Now, he is on to Cincinnati … er, sorry, back to Carolina. And when one pivots their eyes from the résumé of the coach to the résumé of the place where he shall now be the coach, another movie quote comes to mind, and it’s from a North Carolinian, Ricky Bobby: “Everything cool that was just said, you wrecked it.”

The reckless reality of UNC football is that the only rankings it has ever topped are when people compile their lists of “schools that should be great at football but aren’t.”

The Heels began playing football 136 years ago and have eight conference championships to show for it. Their last ACC ring came in 1980, when Lawrence Taylor was still dressed in Carolina blue. LT turns 66 in February. Since the ACC championship game came into being two decades ago, the Heels have made two appearances, in 2015 and 2022, and lost both times to Clemson.

They have participated in 38 bowl games but have lost 23 of them, including 11 of their last 14, and have run onto the field for a January bowl only seven times — and just once this century. Their greatest postseason triumph was probably the 1981 Gator Bowl, when they held off a rainy rally by Lou Holtz’s Arkansas Razorbacks. Then again, it might be their 2010 Music City Bowl win over Tennessee, not because of the final score but because that’s the game that led to clock runoff rules being instituted. What a legacy.

This is a program that produced Dre Bly, Julius Peppers, Greg Ellis, last year’s No. 3 NFL draft pick Drake Maye and one of the greatest old running backs to ever lace up the cleats, two-time Heisman Trophy runner-up Charlie “Choo Choo” Justice. But it is also a program that has produced only seven 10-win seasons, and only one since 1997.

The state of North Carolina is packed with high school football talent. The UNC brand is one that is genuinely global (thanks, MJ!). In recent years, the school has even made a long-needed course correction when it comes to football facilities and upgrades, with the christening of a nearly $50 million football HQ and the upfitting of always-beautiful-but-usually-sad Kenan Stadium. And yet, Belichick is the team’s third head coach in eight seasons.

In 2012, spicy Larry Fedora and his high-tempo offense were supposed to inject full-throttle energy into the program while also sprinting away from embarrassing, years-long improper benefits and academic fraud investigations. The Heels won 11 games in 2015 and were ranked 10th in the final CFP poll, but three years later Fedora was gone.

Fedora’s replacement was Mack Brown, back for a second stint (see: that 1997 success before he bolted for Texas), coming off the bench from ESPN. The arc of the Brown 2.0 era looks similar to Fedora’s, as it was for most of the coaches who came before him, a promising peak in the middle followed by an exit out the back door. From 2020 to 2023, Brown’s Heels were routinely climbing into the top 10 by midseason, but by December were routinely slipping out of the top 25 altogether.

Time after time, would-be saviors have been brought to Chapel Hill charged with waking the sleeping giant. Heck, the staff that Belichick’s father served on was led by George Barclay, the Heels’ first-ever first-team All-American, called home to put a spark into his alma mater’s team in 1953, the ACC’s inaugural season. He went 11-18-1 over three years, unable even to replicate his success at his previous stop, Washington & Lee.

Meanwhile, fans of Tar Heels football have been forced to watch every other team in the state have their own eras of success while they settled for another so-so season. East Carolina set NCAA offensive receiving records. Appalachian State won FCS titles and captured the imagination of America with wins at Michigan and Texas A&M. Wake Forest won the ACC in 2006. NC State has won 13 of its last 18 games against Carolina, including the last four. Last fall, Duke hosted “College Gameday.” Duke!

“The place has a ceiling. Just how it is,” a former UNC assistant coach said via text Wednesday morning as the world waited to see if Belichick was taking the job, adding after a long pause of typing dots: “Throw a Hail Mary. Why not? If it doesn’t work, no one will care. They just want to beat Duke.”

The last sentence of his text was punctuated by a basketball emoji.

Because of its brand, academic reputation and flagship status for the deep-pocketed state of North Carolina (sorry, Tobacco Road rivals, but it’s true), UNC is also viewed as the sleeping giant of conference realignment. While Florida State and Clemson make their public noise about the potential of moving elsewhere, the Heels are widely considered to be the most coveted ACC target for any league seeking its next cash-covered puzzle piece. A departure from the conference it helped create would be every bit the equivalent of Texas and Oklahoma bolting the Big 12 or USC breaking ranks with the Pac-12.

But with the greatest respect to Michael Jordan, Dean Smith and their fellow white trimmed jersey-wearing Heels, when it comes to redrawing maps and endorsing checks from restructured TV deals, it’s a football-gloved hand that wields the pen. And all of those other universities listed in the previous paragraph have won a hell of a lot more than a handful of Gator Bowls and earned way more than zero conference titles since the Carter Administration.

Perhaps that’s why UNC administrators are heaving this ball from midcourt. Why they have hired a coach with zero college experience. Why they have hired a man notoriously impatient with NFL rookies and put him in charge of a locker room full of 19-year-olds.

Who knows why the man we came to know in sleeveless red, white and blue will now dress in Carolina blue and argyle. What we do know is that everything and everyone that UNC has thrown at football before Bill Belichick hasn’t worked. And this might. But if bringing in a man who will one day have his own entire wing of the Pro Football Hall of Fame fails to rouse one the most puzzling meh programs in the 155-year history of the sport, then nothing ever will.

The GOAT versus the Ram. Something’s gotta give.

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Malzahn: Changes to coaching led to FSU move

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Malzahn: Changes to coaching led to FSU move

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Near Gus Malzahn’s new office hangs a picture of Kelvin Benjamin hauling in a touchdown pass from Jameis Winston, the play that helped Florida State beat Malzahn and his Auburn Tigers in the 2013 national championship game.

It’s a daily reminder of Malzahn’s connection to the Seminoles.

“I’ve got to walk by the picture of the guy catching the ball as I go to the office every day,” Malzahn said Wednesday. “That was a real special game. There were a lot of great players on the field. It went down to the very end. It was probably entertaining or a great game to watch. It was tough, obviously, to be on the losing side.”

Malzahn is on the opposite side now. He resigned as UCF’s head coach last month to become Mike Norvell’s offensive coordinator in Tallahassee. Their link goes back even further than Malzahn’s title-game loss to the Seminoles.

Malzahn, 59, said he chose to return to his coaching roots rather than remain a head coach distracted by new-age responsibilities. Malzahn walked away from $15 million guaranteed — he was set to make $5 million in 2025 and had three years remaining on his contract with the Knights — for a different coaching lifestyle. He signed a three-year deal with FSU that will pay him $1.5 million in 2025.

“The job description of a head college football coach has changed dramatically in the last two years with everything — transfer portal to collectives to agents and everything that goes with that,” Malzahn said. “I’m just an old-school football coach.

“I love coaching football, and head coaches, it’s hard to do that a lot. So that had something to do with it. And then the opportunity and being familiar with Mike and having so much respect for this university, coached against this university in the national championship. I know what this place is capable of doing.”

Malzahn has been mostly successful during a career that began at an Arkansas high school and included head coaching stops at Arkansas State, Auburn and UCF. The Knights won nine games in 2021 and ’22 in the American Athletic Conference before making the jump to the Big 12, where they finished 6-7 last year and 4-8 this season.

Malzahn helped Auburn win the 2010 national title as an offensive coordinator and was a play or two away from winning another in 2013. Now he’s in Tallahassee to help turn around a storied program that’s fallen on hard times.

Malzahn was part of a Tulsa staff that hired Norvell as a graduate assistant in 2007. They didn’t work together very long but have remained close through the years.

Malzahn is now tasked with jump-starting an offense that was among the worst in major college football this season, averaging 15.4 points and ranked 131st out of 134 schools.

“I’m a big believer you got to run the football downhill,” Malzahn said. “It makes everything better as far as pass protection, better on the quarterback, everything. … And we’ll get that done.”

Malzahn will replace Norvell as the team’s primary playcaller.

“Our foundation on offense is from the same family,” Malzahn said. “He’s got his own wrinkles, and I’ve had my own wrinkles. But there is a lot more things that are in common. We still have the same terminology, the way we identify things like formations and player alignment, numbers.

“That’s why it’s a really, really easy transition. We’re going to play fast. I think that’s the No. 1 thing. We’re going to play fast.”

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