Tesla (TSLA) is expected to miss its delivery goal for the quarter and the full year 2024, according to industry analysts.
Tesla hasn’t been releasing quarterly delivery goals for years. Instead, the automaker has been guiding a roughly 50% annual increase in deliveries, with some years less than that and others more.
However, Tesla had to give up on this general guidance in 2024.
Deliveries have been down for the first half of the year, making it impossible for Tesla to achieve 50% growth and hard to grow at all.
Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024.
To deliver more than the 1.8 million vehicles it delivered in 2023, Tesla needs to deliver 515,000 vehicles in Q4. That’s significantly more than the 476,000 vehicles it delivered during the same period last year, which was also Tesla’s all-time quarterly delivery record.
The automaker is expected to release its delivery results on Thursday or Friday.
Tesla delivery expectations
Analysts have been updating their delivery expectations for Q4, and the consensus currently sits at 507,000 units.
It would be a new delivery record for Tesla, but it would fall short of the delivery goal of 515,000 units, which would also result in a miss for Tesla’s predicted “slight growth” in 2024.
We have been reporting on Tesla’s performance this quarter, and it looks like the automaker is doing well in China, which is its most important market, but it is having serious issues in Europe.
The US, which is a more opaque market, is likely going to make the difference, but we won’t know for sure until Tesla releases the results later this week.
Electrek’s Take
I don’t think deliveries will make a big difference this quarter. I think most people already see 2024 as a wash for Tesla deliveries.
As I previously stated, the Cybertruck was a mistake. Regardless of whether you like the truck or not, I think it’s clear that the Cybertruck will not contribute significantly to Tesla’s growth, and the focus on the program over the last few years has resulted in this pause in Tesla’s growth.
Instead, Tesla should have focused on cheaper electric vehicles, which seems to be the focus in 2025.
Hopefully, Tesla will return to growth in 2025, but it could be difficult. While the new Model Y and the two new cheaper vehicles built on Model 3/Y should help, EV incentives are expected to go away in the US and competition is increasing in China.
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Kia’s electric sports car will smoke a Ferrari and Lamborghini off the line, and it’s already less than half the cost. Now, Kia’s 576 horsepower EV6 GT is even cheaper to drive with nearly $20,000 in lease savings. Here’s how you can get your hands on one.
The EV6 GT arrived in 2022 as the “most powerful Kia production vehicle ever.” With up to 576 horsepower, Kia’s electric sports car can sprint from 0 to 60 mph in just 3.4 seconds.
Kia went all out, adding fun features and different drive modes, such as “GT” and “drift.” The GT drive mode adjusts the vehicle’s motor, brakes, steering, suspension, and more for better performance.
To prove its power, Kia put its EV sports car up against a Ferrari Roma and Lamborghini Huracan EVO Spyder. Certified by an independent test from AMCI, the Kia EV6 GT beat both off the line. Not only is the Kia faster, but it’s also about half the cost.
The 2024 Kia EV6 GT starts at $61,600. A 2024 Ferrari Roma will run you about $245,000, while a new 2024 Lamborghini Huracan EVO Spyder starts at just over $300,000.
2024 Kia EV6 GT (Source: Kia)
According to online car research firm CarsDirect, the 2024 Kia EV6 GT now features $19,050 in lease cash (24-month lease). With the option of Single Pay leases, you can also score lower lease rates.
If you’re looking for something with a little less performance (and a lower price), Kia is offering $10,000 in Customer Cash on all 2024 EV6 models. The EV6 Light Long Range RWD ($45,950 MSRP) is listed for lease at just $179 for 24 months, with $3,499 due upfront.
The discounts come with the new 2025 model year arriving, which has an even longer driving range (319 miles Kia-est) and an NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers. The new EV6 GT trim will also pull additional features from Hyundai’s IONIQ 5 N, including a Virtual Gear Shift (VGS) function.
India will cooperate with international sanctions, the country’s oil minister told CNBC on Tuesday, as markets eye future U.S. policy under the new administration of President Donald Trump.
“We play by the rules. If there is an international sanction, which is anchored, we would not want to go around it or anything,” India’s Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri told CNBC’s Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of the annual India Energy Week conference.
“On Russia, yes, there was a price cap, and we adhered strictly to the price cap. Going forward, if there are issues, we will address them.”
India’s refiners have been snapping up discounted Russian oil since Western and G7 energy sanctions barred many consumers from Moscow’s supplies, in an effort to whittle down Russia’s war coffers after its invasion of Ukraine. Countries not subject to the measures have been able to use insurance and shipping providers to facilitate the acquisition and transport of Russian crude procured under a price threshold.
New Delhi has repeatedly defended its purchases as a matter of national interest.
“There is no sanctioned country, first of all. It’s a lot of misrepresentation that’s taking place. Today, Europe still buys 25% of its gas from Russia. They buy other critical energy from there. So there’s no sanction,” the energy minister said Tuesday.
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He also signaled that the government of Trump’s predecessor, President Joe Biden, had endorsed India’s bolstered intake of Russian oil.
“I’ve had a chat with the Americans, the previous administration. They said, please buy as much as you like. Just make sure that you buy it within the price cap. And that’s what we did,” Puri said. CNBC has reached out to the U.S. State Department for comment.
India met about 88% of its oil needs via imports between April and November 2024, little changed from a year earlier, official data showed. As of January, about 40% of those imports came from Russia, data from trade intelligence firm Kpler suggests.
In 2021, Russian oil accounted for just 12% of the country’s oil imports by volume. By 2024, that share had surged to over 37%, according to Kpler data.
Sanctions in focus
The U.S. has been key in shaping global energy policy through sanctions over the past decade. In January, the U.S. imposed sweeping measures targeting Russia’s energy firms and the operators of vessels transporting oil — a move that analysts believe will make it harder for buyers like India to continue importing cheap Russian crude.
Investors have been waiting to see whether the newly installed Trump will pursue a ramp-up or relaxation of U.S. energy restrictions — critical to markets because the U.S. dollar denominates crude and oil product commodities.
Trump imposed sanctions affecting the Iranian and Venezuelan energy sectors during his first mandate and has taken an “America First” approach that could further incentivize domestic output — amid questions over the impact that threatened U.S. tariffs could have on global supply elsewhere.
Puri signaled his country would not be adverse to additional acquisitions of U.S. volumes. “If Americans are putting in more energy onto the global market, somebody asked me: ‘Are you going to buy more? I said: ‘I’d be surprised if we don’t.’ Because it’s in the natural flow,” he added.
The sanctions and trade developments are coinciding with a period when India’s oil consumption growth has outpaced that of China, contributing to 25% of the global increase in oil consumption.
“I am convinced that geopolitical tensions need to be managed,” Puri said Tuesday, noting current characterizations of supply-demand fundamentals in the oil market are “depending on whom you’re talking to and depending on where they stand on the equation,” as producers or consumers.
“A country like India, with a robust demand and a current consumption of 5.5 million barrels [per day] has a contribution to make in terms of which way the market goes. And we… we plan to use that leverage,” the oil minister added.
US EV prices held steady in January, and incentive spending dropped 3.1% from December, according to the latest monthly new-vehicle average transaction price (ATP) report from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book.
Average transaction prices for EVs in January, at $55,614, were higher by nearly 1% compared to a downwardly revised December. EV prices last month were lower year-over-year by 1.4%. Incentive spending on EVs in January decreased by 3.1% compared to December but was higher by 48.6% year-over-year.
Overall, EV costs are falling – compared to the overall auto industry, EV ATPs were higher by 14.3%. A year ago, the price premium versus the industry was 17.4%.
ATPs for market leader Tesla, at $55,380, were higher year-over-year by 4.5%. Cybertruck prices fell year-over-year by 6.5% to just under $98,000. Model X prices were also lower year-over-year.
The two most popular EVs in the US, the Model Y and Model 3, both saw transaction prices increase year-over-year by 2.2% and 6.2%, respectively.
The $7,500 tax credit is now missing from the Tesla website. What will Tesla’s February sales volume look like?
As for total new-vehicle sales volume in January, it was higher year-over-year by 5.1% but lower by more than 25% compared to a robust December. New-vehicle inventory at the beginning of January was below 3 million units for the first time since late October.
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