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  • David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior WriterJan 21, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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    • Covers MLB for ESPN.com
    • Former deputy editor of Page 2
    • Been with ESPN.com since 1995

The Hall of Fame voting results from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America will be announced Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, with several players hoping to hear their names announced as part of the class of 2025.

This year’s ballot is probably the weakest since the early 2000s — with newcomer Ichiro Suzuki the only slam-dunk candidate — especially compared to the middle of last decade, when an overstuffed ballot led to quality candidates getting knocked off after just a year or two. The nadir came in 2013, when no player was voted in from a ballot that featured 10 players who have since been elected to the Hall of Fame.

What has happened since? For starters, the PED logjam cleared — and the post-steroid era downturn in offense means fewer hitters with big numbers. Starting pitchers who reach the ballot have now spent much of their careers in an era when they pitch fewer innings and thus win fewer games.

All this has led to players like Joe Mauer, Todd Helton and Scott Rolen getting elected in recent years — players the general public might have viewed as borderline, but who were top candidates in their election years. That mindset is important to consider for the 2025 results: Voters will compare players not only to established Hall of Fame standards but also to the other players on the ballot. (Disclosure: I was a first-time voter this year.) That means while Ichiro might be the only surefire candidate, several other players have a chance to get elected.

Here’s what to watch for on Hall of Fame reveal day, remembering the general guidelines:

• A player needs 75% to get elected (not rounded up).

• A player needs 5% to remain on the ballot.

• Writers can vote for a maximum of 10 players.

• A player can remain on the ballot for 10 years.

Will Ichiro become the second unanimous selection?

It’s hard to imagine having a Hall of Fame ballot in your hands and not checking the box next to Ichiro’s name, but Mariano Rivera in 2019 has been the only unanimous selection in history. One voter didn’t vote — or forgot to vote — for Derek Jeter. Three didn’t vote for Ken Griffey Jr. And don’t even ask about some of the percentages for older players like Willie Mays and Henry Aaron.

Ichiro is polling at 100% of the public ballots revealed on the Hall of Fame tracker website. Ichiro’s 60 career WAR doesn’t scream inner-circle Hall of Famer or even a typical first-ballot selection, but he also didn’t debut in the majors until his age-27 season — and still registered over 3,000 career hits. He averaged 5.6 WAR his first three seasons with the Seattle Mariners, which doesn’t even include his best season in 2004, when he set the record for hits in a season. He won 10 Gold Gloves, was the American League MVP winner as a rookie and was one of the most iconic players of all time.

Seven of Ichiro’s peak seasons actually came in Japan. If you also add in those seven seasons, he’s at 100 career WAR — a figure only five position players who started their careers after 1969 have ever reached.

Does CC Sabathia make it on his first ballot?

It looks like it. Sabathia is polling at 93.3%, and while vote percentages revealed after the announcement almost always go down, Sabathia appears to have the cushion needed to get elected. Sabathia finished 251-161 with a 3.74 ERA, 62.3 career WAR, a Cy Young Award and a World Series title with the New York Yankees in 2009. During his five-year peak from 2007 to 2011, he ranked second to Roy Halladay in pitching WAR.

Many voters used to have a first-ballot rule, where they would only vote for a player the first time they appeared on the ballot if they were an inner-circle Hall of Famer, but that has mostly gone away. In recent years, we had Mauer in 2024 (55.2 WAR) and David Ortiz in 2022 (55.3 WAR) make it on the first ballot with less career WAR than Sabathia or Ichiro. It’s also true that Sandy Koufax would be the only starting pitcher with less WAR than Sabathia to make it on his first try — and Koufax, with his early retirement, was a special case. Sabathia is hardly an automatic selectio,n and while I voted for him, I’m a little surprised that it appears he’ll get in on his first try.

Does Billy Wagner finally make it in?

The reliever with a 2.31 career ERA is on his 10th and final BBWAA ballot. It’s been a slow climb. In his first two years in 2016 and 2017, back in those crowded ballot days, Wagner polled at just 10%. By last year, he was up to 73.8%, falling just five votes short. He’s polling at 84.8% on the public ballots, up from the 78% he was polling before the results a year ago, but that’s only a few extra votes, so it’s going to be close. (I voted for Wagner, so that will help him.)

The non-Wagner supporters point to his 10.03 ERA in the postseason (in just 11 ⅔ innings, however). There is also the reasonable argument that no team would have traded, say, Bobby Abreu or Torii Hunter or Ian Kinsler, to name three players on this year’s ballot, for Wagner. So why should Wagner make the Hall of Fame and not players of that caliber? Again, fair argument, but voters have made the decision to compare Wagner to other relievers, not other players. While voters have been too lenient in selecting relievers, Wagner’s dominance can’t be ignored. He arguably ranks behind only Rivera among modern closers — and Wagner had a 1.43 ERA his final season, so he had plenty left in the tank when he retired.

How close will Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran get?

The two center fielders continue to see their totals go up and have a chance to get elected this year. Jones, now on his eighth ballot, received 61.6% of the vote last year, and is currently polling at 73.3%. Beltran finished at 57.1% on his second ballot a year ago and is polling at 80.6% this time around. Beltran first appeared on the ballot in the wake of the Houston Astros‘ sign-stealing scandal, and his vote totals certainly suffered as a result of his involvement. With 70.1 career WAR, 435 home runs, 1,587 RBIs and great numbers in the postseason (.307/.412/.609), his case is otherwise strong. He received my vote.

The case for Jones: He was one of the best defensive center fielders of all time (he won 10 Gold Gloves) and hit 434 home runs. That’s a nice combination to sell. He also played for those Atlanta Braves teams when they were winning the division title every season, and that helps as well. Baseball-Reference credits him with 62.7 WAR — just above that 60 career total that generally marks a strong candidate. Jones fizzled out early, however, with his last good season coming when he was 29. Additionally, in the context of his era, his offensive numbers, despite the power, aren’t all that impressive: .254/.337/.486 and a 111 OPS+. Only four Hall of Fame outfielders have a lower career OPS+: Tommy McCarthy (an obscure 19th century player), Lloyd Waner (one of the worst players in the Hall) and speedsters Max Carey and Lou Brock.

I spent more time looking at Jones than any other player before deciding not to vote for him. In the end, I just don’t completely trust the defensive numbers that prop up his WAR. Baseball-Reference credits Jones with plus-235 runs saved on defense (a combination of two different metrics, Total Zone through 2002 and Defensive Runs Saved after that). That’s the most of any outfielder — and the second most of any player, behind only Brooks Robinson.

Willie Mays, as a comparison, is credited with 185 fielding runs (second highest among center fielders) — but Mays also played many more innings. On a per-inning basis, Jones comes out almost twice as good as Mays. Twice as good as Willie Mays?! Sounds skeptical. When digging into the numbers, an interesting thing is that for most of Jones’ career as a center fielder, Braves’ left fielders — first Ryan Klesko and then Chipper Jones for a couple years — had unusually low range factors. It seems likely Jones was taking all the either/or plays away from the left fielders, pushing up his putout totals. Since the Total Zone metric is an estimate, that gives him some eye-popping fielding numbers early in his career.

Jones was a truly generational center fielder, no doubt. But take a few wins off his WAR total and that puts him into the mid-50s, enough to make him fall short of the Hall of Fame to me — not to mention that there are several more worthy center fielders deserving of Hall of Fame status in my book, such as Beltran, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds and perhaps Bernie Williams (the latter three long gone off the ballot).

How will Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins fare?

The two longtime Philadelphia Phillies teammates have very different cases. Utley had an outstanding peak from 2005 to 2010 when he was one of the best players in the game, second only to Albert Pujols in WAR. Rollins won an MVP Award, was more durable and played longer — but he finished with a career OPS+ of just 95, meaning he was a below-average hitter overall. Utley easily trumps Rollins in WAR, 64.5 to 47.6, and that helps explains why he’s polling much better so far, 53.9% to 18.8%. I voted for Utley, with his peak level of performance carrying the day despite a relatively short career and fewer than 2,000 hits.

Will Andy Pettitte start getting some support? How about Mark Buehrle?

With Sabathia on the ballot and likely getting in, it’s hard to ignore this comparison:

Sabathia: 251-161, 61.8 pitching WAR, 3577 IP, 3.74 ERA, 116 ERA+
Pettitte: 256-153, 60.7 WAR, 3316 IP, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+
Buehrle: 214-160, 60.0 WAR, 3283 IP, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+

I don’t see much difference here between the three. Yes, Sabathia had that five-year stretch where he was one of the top starters in baseball, but his five-year peak (30.4 WAR) isn’t all that higher than Pettitte’s (28.2) or Buehrle’s (27.2). That certainly helps Sabathia’s case and is part of why he’ll get in, but I voted for both Pettitte and Buehrle as well. I just didn’t see how I could vote for Sabathia and not the other two.

Pettitte was on my TV screen every October for almost two decades, a key member of five World Series championship teams; that put him over the top for me, even if he was more of a “compiler” in the Don Sutton/Jim Kaat mode of starting pitcher. In Buehrle’s case, I’m of the belief that each generation needs equal representation, and he was one of the best starting pitchers of his generation. He won fewer games than Sabathia, but that was mostly because he didn’t hang around and extend his career — he won 15 games his final season while Sabathia was 60-59 with a 4.33 ERA over his final seven seasons.

Who stays on the ballot?

Felix Hernandez was a “no” for me, but I’m glad he has already received enough votes to stay on. He won 169 games on terrible Mariners teams that never scored any runs, but while he had an outstanding peak, he was done at 30:

Hernandez through age 30: 154-109, 3.16 ERA, 126 ERA+, 51.2 WAR
Sabathia through age 30: 176-96, 3.51 ERA, 125 ERA+, 49.8 WAR

Sabathia wasn’t hugely valuable after that, but he managed to hang around and win another 75 games. King Felix won just 15 more games. He’ll at least get the chance to have his Hall of Fame case discussed — unlike Johan Santana, who got bumped off the ballot. As pitchers continue to win fewer and fewer games, maybe the standards will change to focus more on peak and less on longevity (which would certainly help Hernandez’s case).

Dustin Pedroia (on his first ballot) and David Wright (on his second) should also get enough votes to remain on, which will keep their careers in the public eye. Pedroia finished with 51.9 WAR and Wright with 49.2. Both likely had Hall of Fame careers shortened by injuries: Pedroia with the knee injury suffered on a Manny Machado hard slide; Wright with a back injury. Pedroia played just nine games after 2017; Wright just 77 after 2014.

Those are the two highest WAR totals among position players who suffered a career-ending injury (as opposed to a debilitating injury or series of injuries) and aren’t in the Hall of Fame. The best comparison might be Kirby Puckett, who suddenly lost his vision due to glaucoma and never played again. He finished with 51.1 WAR and made the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Pedroia and Wright are in a unique class of almost.

Wondering about Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez? Yes, they’re still on the ballot.

A-Rod is polling around 40% on his fourth ballot and Ramirez at 36% on his ninth. It appears they’re destined to be in the same club as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire.

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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