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  • Max OlsonFeb 11, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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    • Covers the Big 12
    • Joined ESPN in 2012
    • Graduate of the University of Nebraska

THE GOAL GOING into December was to spend $5 million.

That was the price tag that Cody Campbell, Texas Tech‘s billionaire booster and the leader of The Matador Club NIL collective, initially anticipated for the Red Raiders’ transfer portal haul. In college football’s constantly evolving world of transfer recruiting, that’s still considered a lot of money.

In late November, Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire told reporters he was bringing in approximately 10 transfers for next season. McGuire, Campbell and general manager James Blanchard had spent months preparing for the Dec. 9 start of portal season. They had an ambitious plan. And then the plan worked a little too well.

The quality of players hitting the market — proven starters, potential all-conference performers, real NFL prospects — who were willing to listen to Texas Tech’s pitch exceeded expectations. So, why stop at 10? This trio wholeheartedly believed the Red Raiders had just come up a few plays — and players — short of the first Big 12 championship game in school history, finishing one game behind the teams tied for first place. This was their moment to take a big swing.

“I talked with Cody and Coach McGuire,” Blanchard said, “and Coach was like, ‘Man, if they can help us win the Big 12, let’s just go ahead and go all-in. Let’s do it.'”

Texas Tech brought in 17 new players in December, including seven of the top 75 players in ESPN’s transfers rankings, good enough for the No. 2 ranked portal class in early January. And nobody outside of Lubbock, Texas, saw it coming.

The total cost of the splurge? More than $10 million.

Texas Tech didn’t pull off its stunning portal shopping spree purely by outspending its competition. It’s never that simple. Five months of careful planning and 10 days of relentless recruiting went into putting it all together. And once the portal opened, they went on a hot streak.

“We started hitting home run after home run,” McGuire said.

Texas Tech’s portal class was impressive enough that Notre Dame, fresh off playing for a national championship, tried to hire Blanchard as its next general manager. He’s staying in Lubbock because he knows this upcoming season could be special.

Internally, everyone at Texas Tech agrees on what this haul means: The Red Raiders have acquired enough talent to become a genuine College Football Playoff contender in 2025. They’re not just hoping to secure the program’s first outright conference title in 70 years — they’re expecting it.

“We’re pushing all our chips in,” McGuire said.

IF YOU’RE LOOKING for Blanchard, McGuire says, you probably won’t find him in his office. He’s usually in the war room.

The office of Texas Tech’s director of scouting, Sean Kenney, has turned into the space where the recruiting staff gathers. The whiteboard is covered with the names of all their players and prospects on magnets. Together, they spent the 2024 season knocking out film evaluations and grades on pretty much everyone who had remaining eligibility and fit their needs.

The Red Raiders had to replace departing senior starters at running back, wide receiver and tight end. They needed to upgrade at offensive tackle and defensive tackle. An impact edge rusher was a must. And they had to get better in the secondary after finishing with the worst pass defense in FBS this season.

Blanchard says 90% of the work is collecting information. He puts a big emphasis on feedback from pro football scouting contacts and closely monitors every player who has NFL draft grades going into the season.

“You might watch tape and be like, ‘The NFL likes this guy? I don’t really like him.’ Listen, they got way more information than we do,” Blanchard said. “So, take the ego out of it. If the NFL is saying this guy is a sixth- or seventh-round draft pick … let’s lean towards the guys who do this all the time and let’s have an advantage.”

In an effort to identify veteran players who might slip through the cracks, the staff kept a spreadsheet of senior prospects and crossed off names as each player surpassed four games played (the threshold for burning or saving a year of eligibility). Two of the top five players left on their FCS list were Illinois State offensive lineman Hunter Zambrano and North Dakota State safety Cole Wisniewski. Both were preseason All-Americans who went down with season-ending injuries. Now they’re both Red Raiders.

Sometimes, the sleepers don’t stay quiet. Blanchard had two favorites at the top of his list of edge rushers: Georgia Tech’s Romello Height and Marshall’s Mike Green. When Green put together a breakout season and led FBS with 17 sacks, Blanchard took him off the board. There was no way he was hitting the portal. Now, Green is a potential NFL first-rounder.

McGuire chuckles as he recalls turning on tape of Miami (Ohio) offensive tackle Will Jados and watching him roll his hips and pancake a Notre Dame defensive linemen. “I literally paused it after the first play and went down to [offensive line coach] Clay McGuire and said, ‘Dude, I’m gonna love this guy!'” Blanchard felt the same way when he turned on Zambrano’s tape against Iowa and Northern Illinois defensive tackle Skyler Gill-Howard‘s tape against Notre Dame. There was still more homework to be done, but it didn’t take much film to develop strong feelings.

They spent plenty of time, too, identifying Texas natives who could potentially look to come home. North Carolina offensive tackle Howard Sampson, Louisiana tight end Terrance Carter and USC running back Quinten Joyner quickly climbed their board as priority targets if those players entered the portal.

“I’d say 85% of it was a waste of time,” Blanchard said, “because most of ’em stayed or some went to the draft. But that 15% that wasn’t a waste of time? Man, we executed on it. We were proactive. We already had grades on guys and already had everything we needed done.

“There’s maybe a surprise here or there, but come December, we’ve been talking about these guys for what felt like five to six months.”

Blanchard admits there were some nerves and jitters as December neared and it was time to compete. But he felt fully prepared for what he calls the “beautiful chaos” of sorting through thousands of available players, making calls and offers, scheduling official visits and negotiating with agents.

“It’s chaotic, but I’m a psychopath for it,” he added. “To me, it’s becoming the most exciting event of the college football season for personnel people. National Signing Day used to be our Super Bowl. Not anymore. The portal window is now, and I love it.”

At the start, Campbell said he’d be disappointed if Texas Tech didn’t end up with a top-five portal class. Blanchard was focused on No. 1.

“I don’t think they understood how aggressive we were going to be,” Maguire said.

CAMPBELL SAW THE upcoming opportunity as far back as last summer.

The NCAA and the Power 5 conferences agreed in May to the $2.8 billion House settlement, bringing on the era of revenue sharing in college athletics. Campbell began consulting with countless attorneys and general counsel in July to fully understand the short- and long-term legal circumstances of the imminent shift to schools directly paying players.

“A few people caught on later,” Campbell said, “but nobody was ahead of the curve like we were in terms of planning for it.”

The settlement, which still requires final approval, will allow schools to distribute up to $20.5 million to athletes for the 2025-26 school year starting on July 1. Campbell knew The Matador Club, Texas Tech’s NIL collective since 2022, would still be on the hook for funding the football roster from January through June before the athletic department took on that responsibility — and, more importantly, before the new cap was established.

While schools spent the fall semester scrambling to figure out the unprecedented changes to their financial model, Campbell saw a way for his alma mater to capitalize on the uncertainty. He recognized all the way back in August that Texas Tech should be aggressive in the December portal market and offer front-loaded deals that paid big bucks in the spring and summer before the cap kicked in.

“We had a meeting early in the football season,” McGuire said, “and he said, ‘Look, there’s a part here that we can really take advantage of.'”

Finding an edge in recruiting has historically been a challenge for Texas Tech. The program has a 94-93 record in the post-Mike Leach era since 2010 and hasn’t achieved a top-25 finish in the AP poll since the legendary coach’s firing. But Texas Tech has dramatically upgraded its athletic facilities over the past three years, investing more than $240 million into renovating Jones AT&T Stadium and its football training center.

Four of Texas Tech’s five All-Big 12 performers in 2024 had joined the program as transfers. By the end of the season, they knew they needed more. They’d made solid progress in McGuire’s third year, winning six Big 12 games for the first time since 2008. Texas Tech was the only team in the conference that defeated Arizona State and Iowa State, the two teams that met in Arlington for the Big 12 title. While Baylor delivered a humbling 59-35 blowout, every other league game was within reach. The two losses that knocked them out of the Big 12 race were both one-score games in the final minute.

On his private jet back to Fort Worth following a 41-27 loss to Colorado on Nov. 9, Campbell posted on X about his frustration with “awful” officiating. He received a trolling response telling him to “buy us an O-line.”

His reply: “I will.”

An 8-5 finish was far from awful, but McGuire said he felt like a “complete failure” by season’s end.

“I felt guilty coming into this office, like I’m not doing my job,” McGuire said. “So you want it so bad to get over the hump.

“How do you do that? You get better players.”

WHEN MIAMI (OHIO) transfer wide receiver Reggie Virgil arrived for his official visit to Texas Tech, he’d already lined up his next visits to Oklahoma, Florida and Florida State.

Coaches were calling non-stop during his time in Lubbock and urgently texting promises of $700,000, then $900,000, then Lamborghinis and Corvettes. Virgil was wowed at first but said the offers ultimately didn’t sway him. He’d seen enough to shut down his recruitment. Texas Tech had the No. 1 wideout on their board.

“I went to Tech and I was like, ‘Yeah, I’m not going anywhere else,'” Virgil said. “It was literally too perfect.”

Blanchard, McGuire and their staff developed a clear objective: If they could get a guy on campus, don’t let him leave without committing.

UCF transfer Lee Hunter, their top priority at defensive tackle, was supposed to go see Texas next. No way Blanchard was going to let that happen.

“When we get this guy on campus and we believe he’s the best at this or that, we’re not letting him leave,” Blanchard said.

“James knows what he wants,” an agent who represented a Texas Tech signee told ESPN. “His sights were set. The number reflected that. They’re willing to roll the dice for what they want.”

Virgil was one of eight commits on board after the first week of portal recruiting. And then Texas Tech got everybody’s attention when Hunter, Terrance Carter, Howard Sampson, Romello Height and Quinten Joyner all committed within a span of three days.

“Once people saw us committing,” Virgil said, “I’m pretty sure they were like, ‘Wait, man. What’s going on in Lubbock? Why are all these kids trying to go to Tech?'”

Virgil said it wasn’t the dollar figure. The All-MAC wide receiver went in knowing next to nothing about Texas Tech but liked the coaches and offensive fit. When he showed up, he was immediately blown away by the Red Raiders’ resources.

McGuire showed off their recently completed, state-of-the-art Womble Football Center, a $242 million training facility that he proudly calls the best in the country. For a player from a Group of 5 school eager to level up his development ahead of his final season, the amenities were eye-opening.

“I couldn’t even wrap my mind around it,” Virgil said. “They’ve got everything I need for the NFL. I’m coming here to play football. I ain’t coming here to be a diva and request all this money. I’m coming here for my dream, and I think these guys can help me with my dream. That was good enough for me.”

“All these kids, all they’ve heard is, ‘Don’t go to Lubbock. It’s just tumbleweeds and cactus out there,'” Campbell said. “And then they show up and they’re like, ‘Oh my god, this place is actually really nice.'”

McGuire said he didn’t speak with a single agent during the process, leaving the financial discussions to Blanchard and The Matador Club. His assistant coaches stay out of them, too. He knows getting involved can change the relationship between coach and player. He focused his energy on selling the program, the facilities, the staff, and the experience.

Sampson, a massive 6-foot-8, 325-pound tackle from Houston with early-round draft pick potential, was the one who made the staff sweat the most. McGuire got an assist from a close friend in former North Carolina coach Mack Brown, with whom he got on a FaceTime call while he was with Sampson and his family. Texas Tech beat LSU, Alabama and Missouri for his signature.

“From an old-school recruiting standpoint, there’s nobody that’s better than Joey,” Campbell said. “He’s just phenomenal. And if he’s competing on a level playing field, he’s unstoppable.”

In the end, Sampson was their No. 1 offensive tackle. Hunter was their No. 1 defensive tackle. Height was their No. 1 edge defender. All three were top-50 players in ESPN’s transfer rankings. Campbell declined to disclose contract terms, but sources told ESPN that all three signed deals exceeding $1 million for 2025.

Campbell expected a steep price tag for proven players at premium positions. What really surprised him? How many players at the top of their board are now heading to Lubbock.

“We are going to have the most talented roster in the conference, and I don’t think it’s going to even be close,” Campbell said. “We have never, ever been in that position.”

AS BLANCHARD EXPLAINS the strategy behind the big spend, he pauses to bring up a program that tried this a year ago: Ole Miss.

Lane Kiffin and the Rebels loaded up to make a run in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. They surrounded returning QB Jaxson Dart with new playmakers, veteran offensive linemen and some of the best defensive talent on the market. After an 11-2 season, they shoved in their chips. And they went 10-3.

“They did a heck of a job getting their D-line last year,” Blanchard said. “I think they probably had the best D-line in college football. The issue is, they’re still playing in the SEC. That D-line they assembled isn’t anything different than what that conference sees on a week-to-week basis.”

He references the Rebels not to throw any shade, but rather to point out the difference in what he’s attempting in Lubbock.

“I’m excited to see how a portal class at this level works out in the Big 12,” Blanchard said.

Red Raider football has never enjoyed a period of dominance in this conference. Leach achieved a 10-year run of sustained success, peaking with 11 wins and a No. 12 finish in 2008. But since 2010, Texas Tech has compiled a 52-82 record in Big 12 play.

McGuire knows making moves like Tech did in December means a new level of urgency about winning big. Any pressure he’s feeling, he vowed, is internally driven. “You can’t feel any worse than I feel after a loss,” McGuire said. He couldn’t be more fired up about what he’s working with in 2025. But it’s going to take an awful lot of work to achieve something special.

The challenge begins with installing two new coordinators and playbooks. McGuire hired defensive coordinator Shiel Wood from Houston in early December by nearly doubling his salary to $1.2 million. He won the recruiting battle for coveted Texas State offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich, beating Utah, Arizona and Houston and almost tripling his pay to $1 million.

“They seem to have a little bit more resources than us right now,” Houston coach Willie Fritz told reporters after losing Wood.

Texas Tech stepped up to keep Blanchard, too, after he was heavily pursued by Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame. He’ll continue to be one of the highest-paid GMs in the country after agreeing to a new three-year deal worth more than $1.5 million.

New coordinators and schemes means there will be lots of learning this offseason and competition in spring ball. The incoming transfers have combined for 215 career starts and more than 16,000 career snaps in college. It’s a class loaded with seniors who have one season left and should be highly motivated to play their best football and boost their draft stock.

They’re joining a team with 13 returning starters and 15 more who have starting experience. Texas Tech endured minimal offseason portal attrition despite all the talent they’ve added.

“We’ve had some guys coming up and saying, ‘Blanch, you wasted your money on that one. I’m gonna beat ’em out.'” Blanchard said. “Man, I would love it if you do. Go do it. That’s how I want you to think. I don’t want you to tuck tail and run. Go compete.”

Getting the chemistry and camaraderie right between returning team leaders and the touted free agents is essential. Virgil trusts that his fellow newcomers will arrive with the right mentality and recognizes it will require full buy-in from everyone to make this team unstoppable.

“On paper we look crazy,” Virgil said. “There shouldn’t be anybody that’s able to run through us.”

One thing McGuire says he’s never going to do, in recruiting or retention, is guarantee anybody a starting position. The new guys must compete for everything they get regardless of their compensation. Campbell is confident they can retain their transfers during the April transfer window, too, and said deals were structured so players receive the bulk of their payments after the portal closes.

The head coach acknowledges Arizona State, BYU, Baylor and several more teams in their league are in good shape for 2025. The first year of 12-team CFP proved that a 9-3 record won’t cut it unless, as Clemson did, you win your conference. McGuire insists he’s going to expect to be in the Big 12 title game every year. That’s how much he believes in their people and their plan.

“Man, I came here to win championships,” McGuire said. “I wanna be in that game so bad.”

After the portal haul he pulled off, Blanchard doesn’t mince words about Texas Tech’s ambitions.

“This place has never gone to the Big 12 championship or won one,” Blanchard said. “Everybody from the top down is wanting one in Lubbock, Texas. I can’t imagine. It’ll be a dream.

“But it’s gonna be a dream come true, because it’s about to happen.”

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

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July 16, 2025

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Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

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2 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

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3 hours ago

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July 16, 2025

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NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

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