AL betting 2025 preview: Win totals and post-season odds for each team
The 2025 MLB season begins on March 18, with the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers playing a pair of games in Tokyo against the Chicago Cubs. For nearly everybody else, including 15 out of the 16 American League teams, Opening Day arrives on March 27. The Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays will play the first of their 162 games on March 28.
While each team’s season might not start at exactly the same time, every team does start with a clean slate. Nobody is in first place. Nobody is in last place. We won’t have a truly clear picture of which teams will end up making it to baseball’s postseason for several months. Still, that doesn’t mean we have no idea how the season might play out.
ESPN BET has posted win totals and postseason odds for the upcoming season. In the AL, the New York Yankees begin as favorites to win the most games (93.5) as well as make it to the World Series (+800). At the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago White Sox (50.5 wins) are the biggest long shot (+40000) to end up celebrating with champagne this fall.
Here are all of the odds for the AL teams and our thoughts on some potential wagers.
Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET. 
AL East
New York Yankees: 2024 record, 94-68
2025 win total: 93.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+110), ALCS (+275), World Series (+800)
UNDER 93.5 wins: I like the under because you like the over. No, that’s not me being a jerk. It’s simply understanding how books set lines. The Yankees are good, and everyone knows it. People like to bet overs on good teams, and books know it. That’s why they can set the line a couple of wins too high — they know people will bet it anyway. At least, most people will. You’re now a sharp, and we’re betting the under. Welcome to the club. — Carty
Baltimore Orioles: 2024 record, 91-71
2025 win total: 89.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+220), ALCS (+500), World Series (+1200)
UNDER 89.5 wins: Welcome to today’s matinee showing of “Bet the Good Team’s Under 2: Electric Bugaloo.” Baltimore’s reputation is good, but it only won 1.5 more games last year than this line, and it lost more than they added this winter — most notably, ace Corbin Burnes is now in Arizona. The public is dreaming on breakouts from young players such as Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, but the likelihood of prospects breaking out is always lower than the public wants to believe. My prediction system (THE BAT X) sees 82.5 wins for the Orioles. — Carty
Boston Red Sox: 2024 record, 81-81
2025 win total: 84.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+475), ALCS (+1400), World Series (+2500)
OVER 84.5 wins: Thanks, Derek — you had to leave me to talk about the team I’ve been following since 1971. There was a solid stretch from 2001 to about six years ago when you could usually guarantee profit simply by betting on both the Red Sox and Patriots to win everything. No crunching of numbers was required. In 2025, that’s no longer the case. My system has the Red Sox falling short of 84.5 wins, but I also don’t think they’re a finished product. Betting is serious, but there should be an element of entertainment, so consider this my only “heart over head” call. — Zola
Tampa Bay Rays: 2024 record, 80-82
2025 win total: 80.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+800), ALCS (+3000), World Series (+5000)
UNDER 80.5 wins: With everyone else in the AL East getting better (at least on paper), the Rays will have a tough time matching last season’s record. Yes, their pitching should be improved with several previously injured hurlers returning, but the chance they all regain their prior form is slim. They’re built to win through pitching and strong defense, but the Rays face an uphill battle with a road-heavy early schedule. Plus, while their temporary home (George M. Steinbrenner Field) shares the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, it’s much hotter in the Sunshine State. Expect the venue to favor hitting. Sure, Rays batters will benefit, but probably not as much as their pitchers will suffer. — Zola
Toronto Blue Jays: 2024 record, 74-88
2025 win total: 76.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+1500), ALCS (+3000), World Series (+6000)
OVER 76.5 wins: I’ll feel better about this if the Blue Jays add one more bat, but at least they’ve upgraded their defense with Andres Gimenez and fortified their bullpen while also adding SP Max Scherzer. Toronto’s win total line was set for 2.5 wins more last season’s result, and my calculations peg the Blue Jays to collect 80 wins. — Zola
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians: 2024 record, 92-69
2025 win total: 83.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+230), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)
UNDER 83.5 wins: The Guardians in 2024 are just like the Rangers from 2023 — a great story and an impressive season, but it just doesn’t look sustainable. Last year, Texas regressed by 12 wins and went under its Vegas win total by 11.5. When multiple players have career seasons all at once, odds are that several of them will fall back down to the earth the next year. THE BAT X doesn’t see Cleveland even being a .500 team in the average scenario. — Carty
Kansas City Royals: 2024 record, 86-76
2025 win total: 82.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+340), ALCS (+1800), World Series (+4000)
Royals WIN the division: As Derek explained, the wins line involves the books adjusting to the market. Even so, the Guardians, Tigers and Twins are all set at 83.5 with the Royals at 82.5. One of these teams has to win the division — sorry, Chicago — and when presented with what is essentially a four-way toss-up, I’ll back the club with the best odds. It also helps that my own numbers have the Royals ending up with the most wins in the AL Central. — Zola
Detroit Tigers: 2024 record, 86-76
2025 win total: 83.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+260), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+4000)
OVER 83.5 wins: By the numbers, this is my toughest call, with my projections calling for 84 wins out of Motown. Signing Jack Flaherty helped, but it also affected the line. This is a matter of trusting my system, which is optimistic toward youngsters Colt Keith, Riley Greene and Parker Meadows continuing to improve, along with being impressed with how manager A.J. Hinch manages the back end of his rotation and bullpen. — Zola
Minnesota Twins: 2024 record, 82-80
2025 win total: 83.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+240), ALCS (+1400), World Series (+3000)
UNDER 83.5 wins: The books expect the Twins to add a win or two to last season’s total, a year in which they lost just one game to the White Sox. Sure, Kansas City lost just one game to the White Sox as well, but the Royals improved while the Twins might have taken a step back. My numbers suggest Minnesota will be challenged to even match last season’s record, so I certainly can’t recommend betting on a better 2025. — Zola
Chicago White Sox: 2024 record, 41-121
2025 win total: 50.5 (O -130/U Even)
Odds to win: Division (+10000), ALCS (+20000), World Series (+40000)
OVER 50.5 wins: The White Sox are coming off a historically bad season. Sportsbooks are counting on bettors to be too chicken to bet the over here, regardless of the number. Compare this franchise to the Athletics, who won 50 games in 2023 and had a line of 56.5 last year. THE BAT X projected them for 67 wins and they ultimately won 69. At the time, I thought a double-digit win gap between the line and the projection was ridiculous — until I saw THE BAT X project 66 wins for the 2025 White Sox. This is the largest projected gap I’ve ever seen, and it’s easily the most +EV bet on the board. Yes, it’s gross. But that’s the reason you should bet it and not a reason to avoid it. — Carty.
AL West
Houston Astros: 2024 record, 88-73
2025 win total: 87.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+110), ALCS (+550), World Series (+1200)
UNDER 87.5 wins: While I love the fact that the Astros signed Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, who has the ideal swing to become intimate with the Crawford Boxes, all of Houston’s starting outfielders should be backups on a good team — and playing Jose Altuve in left field isn’t the answer. The front end of the team’s rotation is solid, but after that things get dicey. I’m comfortable taking the under here on a team I peg for 85 wins. — Zola
Seattle Mariners: 2024 record, 85-77
2025 win total: 84.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+260), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)
Mariners WIN the division: My projected numbers have the Mariners and Rangers finishing tied atop the AL West with 86 wins each. However, if you expressed their most likely outcomes as a range, Seattle would settle in at 85-87 wins, while Texas checks in between 84-88. I lean toward the safer play with less variance, and besides, the odds for the Mariners to win the division pay a little more than the Rangers’. — Zola
Texas Rangers: 2024 record, 78-84
2025 win total: 85.5 (O -110/U -120)
Odds to win: Division (+240), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)
Rangers WIN the division: If there’s one thing we can count on in betting markets, it’s an overreaction to the previous season. Texas won the World Series in 2023 and was an easy under bet last year. Now, after finishing below .500, it is primed to regress the other way. Look, Houston got worse over the winter and THE BAT X projects it for five fewer wins than Texas, which is the most likely team to win the division at 47.2%. A fair line would be +112, so we’re looking at clear value here. — Carty
Athletics: 2024 record, 69-93
2025 win total: 70.5 (O -110/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+3000), ALCS (+7500), World Series (+15000)
OVER 70.5 wins: My process for projecting win totals involves plugging a roster’s hitting and pitching wOBA into Bill James’ Pythagorean expectation formula. The results typically end up being more bunched than the sportsbooks’ lines, with weaker teams tending to have higher win totals and better teams garnering lower win totals. Some of the differences are market adjustments by bookmakers, but most are driven by regression, which is central to projection theory. That helps to explain my 77 win projection for the Athletics, who should also benefit from playing in Sacramento, where it is up to 20 degrees warmer than Oakland. — Zola
Los Angeles Angels: 2024 record, 63-99
2025 win total: 71.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+3000), ALCS (+7500), World Series (+15000)
OVER 71.5 wins: The Angels are a bad team, but they’ve underperformed the talent on their roster for the past couple of seasons and have been hit harder by injuries than normal variance would project. They certainly added a few wins this offseason, and a healthy Mike Trout puts them on track to beat this number, perhaps by as many as seven games. — Carty
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike