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The 2025 MLB season begins on March 18, with the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers playing a pair of games in Tokyo against the Chicago Cubs. For nearly everybody else, including 15 out of the 16 American League teams, Opening Day arrives on March 27. The Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays will play the first of their 162 games on March 28.

While each team’s season might not start at exactly the same time, every team does start with a clean slate. Nobody is in first place. Nobody is in last place. We won’t have a truly clear picture of which teams will end up making it to baseball’s postseason for several months. Still, that doesn’t mean we have no idea how the season might play out.

ESPN BET has posted win totals and postseason odds for the upcoming season. In the AL, the New York Yankees begin as favorites to win the most games (93.5) as well as make it to the World Series (+800). At the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago White Sox (50.5 wins) are the biggest long shot (+40000) to end up celebrating with champagne this fall.

Here are all of the odds for the AL teams and our thoughts on some potential wagers.

Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.


AL East

New York Yankees: 2024 record, 94-68

2025 win total: 93.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+110), ALCS (+275), World Series (+800)

UNDER 93.5 wins: I like the under because you like the over. No, that’s not me being a jerk. It’s simply understanding how books set lines. The Yankees are good, and everyone knows it. People like to bet overs on good teams, and books know it. That’s why they can set the line a couple of wins too high — they know people will bet it anyway. At least, most people will. You’re now a sharp, and we’re betting the under. Welcome to the club. — Carty

Baltimore Orioles: 2024 record, 91-71

2025 win total: 89.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+220), ALCS (+500), World Series (+1200)

UNDER 89.5 wins: Welcome to today’s matinee showing of “Bet the Good Team’s Under 2: Electric Bugaloo.” Baltimore’s reputation is good, but it only won 1.5 more games last year than this line, and it lost more than they added this winter — most notably, ace Corbin Burnes is now in Arizona. The public is dreaming on breakouts from young players such as Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, but the likelihood of prospects breaking out is always lower than the public wants to believe. My prediction system (THE BAT X) sees 82.5 wins for the Orioles. — Carty

Boston Red Sox: 2024 record, 81-81

2025 win total: 84.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+475), ALCS (+1400), World Series (+2500)

OVER 84.5 wins: Thanks, Derek — you had to leave me to talk about the team I’ve been following since 1971. There was a solid stretch from 2001 to about six years ago when you could usually guarantee profit simply by betting on both the Red Sox and Patriots to win everything. No crunching of numbers was required. In 2025, that’s no longer the case. My system has the Red Sox falling short of 84.5 wins, but I also don’t think they’re a finished product. Betting is serious, but there should be an element of entertainment, so consider this my only “heart over head” call. — Zola

Tampa Bay Rays: 2024 record, 80-82

2025 win total: 80.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+800), ALCS (+3000), World Series (+5000)

UNDER 80.5 wins: With everyone else in the AL East getting better (at least on paper), the Rays will have a tough time matching last season’s record. Yes, their pitching should be improved with several previously injured hurlers returning, but the chance they all regain their prior form is slim. They’re built to win through pitching and strong defense, but the Rays face an uphill battle with a road-heavy early schedule. Plus, while their temporary home (George M. Steinbrenner Field) shares the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, it’s much hotter in the Sunshine State. Expect the venue to favor hitting. Sure, Rays batters will benefit, but probably not as much as their pitchers will suffer. — Zola

Toronto Blue Jays: 2024 record, 74-88

2025 win total: 76.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+1500), ALCS (+3000), World Series (+6000)

OVER 76.5 wins: I’ll feel better about this if the Blue Jays add one more bat, but at least they’ve upgraded their defense with Andres Gimenez and fortified their bullpen while also adding SP Max Scherzer. Toronto’s win total line was set for 2.5 wins more last season’s result, and my calculations peg the Blue Jays to collect 80 wins. — Zola


AL Central

Cleveland Guardians: 2024 record, 92-69

2025 win total: 83.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+230), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)

UNDER 83.5 wins: The Guardians in 2024 are just like the Rangers from 2023 — a great story and an impressive season, but it just doesn’t look sustainable. Last year, Texas regressed by 12 wins and went under its Vegas win total by 11.5. When multiple players have career seasons all at once, odds are that several of them will fall back down to the earth the next year. THE BAT X doesn’t see Cleveland even being a .500 team in the average scenario. — Carty

Kansas City Royals: 2024 record, 86-76

2025 win total: 82.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+340), ALCS (+1800), World Series (+4000)

Royals WIN the division: As Derek explained, the wins line involves the books adjusting to the market. Even so, the Guardians, Tigers and Twins are all set at 83.5 with the Royals at 82.5. One of these teams has to win the division — sorry, Chicago — and when presented with what is essentially a four-way toss-up, I’ll back the club with the best odds. It also helps that my own numbers have the Royals ending up with the most wins in the AL Central. — Zola

Detroit Tigers: 2024 record, 86-76

2025 win total: 83.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+260), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+4000)

OVER 83.5 wins: By the numbers, this is my toughest call, with my projections calling for 84 wins out of Motown. Signing Jack Flaherty helped, but it also affected the line. This is a matter of trusting my system, which is optimistic toward youngsters Colt Keith, Riley Greene and Parker Meadows continuing to improve, along with being impressed with how manager A.J. Hinch manages the back end of his rotation and bullpen. — Zola

Minnesota Twins: 2024 record, 82-80

2025 win total: 83.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+240), ALCS (+1400), World Series (+3000)

UNDER 83.5 wins: The books expect the Twins to add a win or two to last season’s total, a year in which they lost just one game to the White Sox. Sure, Kansas City lost just one game to the White Sox as well, but the Royals improved while the Twins might have taken a step back. My numbers suggest Minnesota will be challenged to even match last season’s record, so I certainly can’t recommend betting on a better 2025. — Zola

Chicago White Sox: 2024 record, 41-121

2025 win total: 50.5 (O -130/U Even)
Odds to win: Division (+10000), ALCS (+20000), World Series (+40000)

OVER 50.5 wins: The White Sox are coming off a historically bad season. Sportsbooks are counting on bettors to be too chicken to bet the over here, regardless of the number. Compare this franchise to the Athletics, who won 50 games in 2023 and had a line of 56.5 last year. THE BAT X projected them for 67 wins and they ultimately won 69. At the time, I thought a double-digit win gap between the line and the projection was ridiculous — until I saw THE BAT X project 66 wins for the 2025 White Sox. This is the largest projected gap I’ve ever seen, and it’s easily the most +EV bet on the board. Yes, it’s gross. But that’s the reason you should bet it and not a reason to avoid it. — Carty.


AL West

Houston Astros: 2024 record, 88-73

2025 win total: 87.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+110), ALCS (+550), World Series (+1200)

UNDER 87.5 wins: While I love the fact that the Astros signed Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, who has the ideal swing to become intimate with the Crawford Boxes, all of Houston’s starting outfielders should be backups on a good team — and playing Jose Altuve in left field isn’t the answer. The front end of the team’s rotation is solid, but after that things get dicey. I’m comfortable taking the under here on a team I peg for 85 wins. — Zola

Seattle Mariners: 2024 record, 85-77

2025 win total: 84.5 (O -115/U -115)
Odds to win: Division (+260), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)

Mariners WIN the division: My projected numbers have the Mariners and Rangers finishing tied atop the AL West with 86 wins each. However, if you expressed their most likely outcomes as a range, Seattle would settle in at 85-87 wins, while Texas checks in between 84-88. I lean toward the safer play with less variance, and besides, the odds for the Mariners to win the division pay a little more than the Rangers’. — Zola

Texas Rangers: 2024 record, 78-84

2025 win total: 85.5 (O -110/U -120)
Odds to win: Division (+240), ALCS (+1200), World Series (+2500)

Rangers WIN the division: If there’s one thing we can count on in betting markets, it’s an overreaction to the previous season. Texas won the World Series in 2023 and was an easy under bet last year. Now, after finishing below .500, it is primed to regress the other way. Look, Houston got worse over the winter and THE BAT X projects it for five fewer wins than Texas, which is the most likely team to win the division at 47.2%. A fair line would be +112, so we’re looking at clear value here. — Carty

Athletics: 2024 record, 69-93

2025 win total: 70.5 (O -110/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+3000), ALCS (+7500), World Series (+15000)

OVER 70.5 wins: My process for projecting win totals involves plugging a roster’s hitting and pitching wOBA into Bill James’ Pythagorean expectation formula. The results typically end up being more bunched than the sportsbooks’ lines, with weaker teams tending to have higher win totals and better teams garnering lower win totals. Some of the differences are market adjustments by bookmakers, but most are driven by regression, which is central to projection theory. That helps to explain my 77 win projection for the Athletics, who should also benefit from playing in Sacramento, where it is up to 20 degrees warmer than Oakland. — Zola

Los Angeles Angels: 2024 record, 63-99

2025 win total: 71.5 (O -120/U -110)
Odds to win: Division (+3000), ALCS (+7500), World Series (+15000)

OVER 71.5 wins: The Angels are a bad team, but they’ve underperformed the talent on their roster for the past couple of seasons and have been hit harder by injuries than normal variance would project. They certainly added a few wins this offseason, and a healthy Mike Trout puts them on track to beat this number, perhaps by as many as seven games. — Carty

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Briscoe gives Toyota its first Daytona 500 pole

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Briscoe gives Toyota its first Daytona 500 pole

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — Chase Briscoe led a banner night for Toyota in qualifying Wednesday for the Daytona 500 by winning the pole for NASCAR’s “Great American Race.”

It is the first Daytona 500 pole for Briscoe, who moved to Joe Gibbs Racing this season when Stewart-Haas Racing closed at the end of 2024. His move to the No. 19 gave Toyota its first pole in NASCAR’s biggest race of the season.

“A great way to start our season. Unbelievable way to start off the year. Unbelievable way to start off with Toyota,” Briscoe said. “To be able to be the guy to deliver them the first anything when they’ve already accomplished so much is pretty cool. To think I’m going to start on the front row or on the pole of the Great American Race with ultimately the great American brand of [sponsor] Bass Pro Shops is unbelievable. Can’t thank Coach Gibbs enough, the entire Joe Gibbs Racing organization.”

Briscoe’s lap of 182.745 mph held off a slew of Ford challengers. Former Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric qualified second in a Ford for Team Penske, which started from the pole last year with Joey Logano, who closed the year as NASCAR Cup Series champion.

Ford drivers claimed four of the top five spots in time trials, but only Briscoe and Cindric as the front row starters were locked in Wednesday night.

“A lot of fast Fords,” Cindric said. “Pretty good to start on the front row with one of my good friends. All in all, a great box checked for the start of this week. I think every single part of this weekend is important to setting up with an opportunity to win this race on Sunday.”

The only other drivers locked in during time trials were Toyota’s Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr., who were not guaranteed entry but posted speeds fast enough to claim two of the four “open” spots in the race.

The remainder of the starting order is set Thursday night in a pair of qualifying races.

There are nine drivers entered for four open spots and Truex and Johnson claimed two of them in time trials. Johnson is a seven-time NASCAR champion, two-time Daytona 500 winner and member of the Hall of Fame. Truex is the 2017 Cup champion and in his first year of not racing NASCAR full time.

“Both Jimmie and I were beneficiaries of their [Toyota’s] hard work on their engines,” Truex said.

Both would have been eligible to request the “world-class driver” provisional that guarantees entry as a 41st car to one driver who does not compete full time in NASCAR and brings marketability and visibility to the biggest race of the season.

The provisional will go to four-time Indianapolis 500 winner Helio Castroneves if he fails to race his way in Thursday night. If he takes the provisional, Trackhouse Racing will not receive any points or purse money, and the field will be 41 cars — the largest field since 43 cars was the standard in 2015.

Johnson said his Legacy Motor Club was unaware of the provisional until it was announced earlier this year — even though it was a new rule included in the charter agreement teams signed in September. The rule required a team to request the provisional 90 days before the event, and the rule was not publicly announced until after the deadline for the Daytona 500 had passed.

“We didn’t know about it until the rule came out. Evidently, it was buried in the charter agreement that came out,” Johnson said earlier Wednesday. “But when the rule came out, I forget the time of the morning, three minutes later, we were on the phone with NASCAR and recognized it wasn’t within the 90 day-window and we weren’t eligible.

“We’ve had a lot of talks with everyone at NASCAR and I have a better understanding of the intent of the rule, and I would anticipate some changes following [Daytona] to better define and clarify that. When first read, our reaction wasn’t great, but it is what it is and hopefully, we have a fast enough car to get in.”

He did, just off the speed of Truex, but it was enough to ensure the two former champions will race Sunday.

The drivers who must race their way in Thursday, seeking the two remaining spots, are Anthony Alfredo, Justin Allgaier, Corey LaJoie, B.J. McLeod, Chandler Smith and J.J. Yeley. If Castroneves races his way in, there will only be one open spot available.

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NASCAR appeals injunctions for 23XI, Front Row

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NASCAR appeals injunctions for 23XI, Front Row

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — NASCAR filed a 68-page appeal Wednesday night — roughly one hour before the start of Daytona 500 qualifying — arguing that a federal judge erred in recognizing 23XI Motorsports and Front Row Motorsports as chartered teams for 2025 as the two organizations sue over antitrust claims.

U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell of the Western District of North Carolina in December issued a preliminary injunction that allowed 23XI and Front Row to receive the same rewards as a chartered team while the lawsuit wades through the court system.

23XI Racing is co-owned by NBA Hall of Famer Michael Jordan and three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin, while Front Row Motorsports is owned by entrepreneur Bob Jenkins.

Last month, Bell denied NASCAR’s motion to dismiss the suit, and also denied NASCAR’s request that the two organizations post a bond to cover any monies they are paid as chartered teams that would have to be returned should 23XI and Front Row lose the lawsuit.

“The district court’s injunction orders flout federal antitrust law; misapply the established rules governing the use of preliminary injunctions; ignore unrebutted, legally significant evidence; and have sweeping implications for NASCAR’s 2025 Cup Series season,” NASCAR wrote. “These injunctions misuse the judicial power to force NASCAR to treat its litigation adversaries as its business partners and confidants, undermining the mutual trust that has fueled NASCAR’s growth and success.”

The timing of the appeal — despite it hitting just one hour before time trials begin for Sunday’s season-opening Daytona 500 — was a coincidence in that Wednesday was a court-ordered deadline. NASCAR does not publicly comment on the lawsuit.

NASCAR has maintained that it will defend itself against antitrust claims and believes that 23XI and Front Row have a misguided case; the teams don’t like the terms of the charter agreement so were the only two out of 15 organizations that refused to sign the forms when NASCAR presented its take-it-or-leave it offer 48 hours before last season’s playoffs began.

Not liking the terms of a contract does not qualify as an antitrust case, NASCAR believes, and it is willing to see the case through to trial. Should 23XI and Front Row prevail, it is believed NASCAR will eliminate the charter system outright rather than renegotiate new charters.

“While every other team owner that was offered a new Charter with these better terms accepted it, these two held out — raising concerns about several provisions but not the mutual releases,” NASCAR wrote. “NASCAR eventually withdrew its offers to Plaintiffs and moved forward with planning its 2025 Cup Series season without them as chartered teams. So 23XI and Front Row turned to the courts, attempting to transform the Charter’s standard release provision into a trump card to belatedly secure, outside of negotiations, the Charters they regretted rejecting — even though neither team owner ever raised that provision as an issue in two years of Charter negotiations.

“With neither the facts nor the law on their side, 23XI and Front Row argue it violates the Sherman Act for sports enterprises to include such standard releases in their agreements. The district court took the bait.”

At issue are the agreements that teams asked for and were granted in 2016. A charter guarantees each car that holds one a spot in the field each week, as well as guaranteed prize money and other financial incentives.

There are 36 guaranteed spots in each race, with four “open” spots for cars that do not hold charters. NASCAR believes 23XI and Front Row should be open cars because they did not sign the charter agreements.

NASCAR also did not want to approve the sale of charters from now-defunct Stewart-Haas Racing to the two teams, which each purchased one charter to expand their organizations from two cars to three. Had Bell not granted the injunction to recognize the two teams as chartered for 2025, a combined six cars between the two organizations would not have received an automatic berth into the Daytona 500.

23XI fields Toyotas for newcomer Riley Herbst, as well as Tyler Reddick, last year’s regular-season champion, and Bubba Wallace. Front Row field Fords for Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland and newcomer Zane Smith.

“At this point, NASCAR would prefer to extend the perks of the 2025 Charter to owners committed to enhancing NASCAR’s competitiveness with other sports for fans, sponsors, and media dollars — rather than owners that undermine NASCAR’s brand,” the sanctioning body wrote in the appeal.

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Wallace ‘couldn’t care less’ if Trump at Daytona

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Wallace 'couldn't care less' if Trump at Daytona

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla — Bubba Wallace said he “couldn’t care less” if Donald Trump attends the Daytona 500 on Sunday, nearly five years after the president accused the NASCAR Cup Series’ only Black full-time driver of perpetrating “a hoax” when a crew member found a noose in the team garage stall.

Trump suggested in July 2020 that Wallace should apologize after the sport rallied around him following the discovery of the noose in his assigned stall at Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama. Federal authorities ruled that the noose had been hanging since October and was not a hate crime. NASCAR and the FBI have referred exclusively to the rope — which was used to pull the garage door closed — as a noose.

Wallace, who drives for the 23XI Racing team owned by Michael Jordan and driver Denny Hamlin, declined to say much about the possibility that Trump could return to NASCAR’s biggest race as a sitting president for the second time.

“We’re here to race,” Wallace said at the Daytona 500 media day. “Not for the show.”

A notice from the Federal Aviation Administration posted Monday indicated that Trump was expected to attend the race, but NASCAR said Wednesday that it had gotten no confirmation.

Wallace had responded on social media in 2020 to Trump calling him out, writing, “Always deal with the hate being thrown at you with LOVE!… Love should come naturally as people are TAUGHT to hate. Even when it’s HATE from the POTUS. “

Trump served as grand marshal for the 2020 Daytona 500 and gave the command for drivers to start their engines. He also took a parade lap around the 2.5-mile speedway in his armored limousine, leading the 40-car field before the green flag. The presidential motorcade remained on the apron in the corners instead of taking to the high-banked turns.

Thousands cheered and a band played patriotic music when Air Force One flew over the famed track, a flyover that was simultaneously shown on big screens. Trump’s presence energized fans but caused huge headaches because of logistical issues at entrance points.

Trump, with first lady Melania Trump by his side, addressed the crowd before the race and called the Daytona 500 “a legendary display of roaring engines, soaring spirits, and the American skill, speed and power that we’ve been hearing about for so many years.”

Trump made history this past Sunday as the first sitting president to attend the Super Bowl. He watched the Philadelphia Eagles defeat the Kansas City Chiefs from a suite after flying in with a group of some of his closest Republican allies in Congress, including Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott of South Carolina.

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