Baseball is back! The stars, teams and themes we can’t wait to see in spring training
After a wild baseball winter, spring training is in the air.
The Mets inked Juan Soto to the largest contract in MLB history — and also brought back fan favorite Pete Alonso this week. The Dodgers had another busy offseason, including the addition of prized Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki. And the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and New York Yankees were among the most active teams in a scorching-hot trade market.
Now, with pitchers and catchers reporting across Arizona and Florida this week, we’ll start seeing how those moves translate to the diamond. We’ve asked our ESPN MLB experts to get us ready for spring training with the stars and storylines they’re most excited to see as baseball returns for the 2025 season.
What is the one thing you are most excited about as spring training begins?
Buster Olney: The Mets are a must-see stop in spring training and will be must-watch all year. The Dodgers are baseball’s Evil Empire in many fans’ eyes and will be aiming to be the majors’ first back-to-back champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees. But in many ways, the Mets will be the team under the most pressure this year, given their success last October, the record-setting signing of Juan Soto and that they have such a difficult challenge in the loaded National League East.
The major competitive question the Mets face is this: In the face of another rotation makeover, can they replicate the starters’ production of 2024, when they ranked fifth in innings and 12th in ERA?
Jorge Castillo: Can the Mets reproduce some of their magic? The lineup is undoubtedly better than a year ago with the addition of Soto, Mark Vientos coming off a breakout season and Alonso back after a long winter for the slugger. The bullpen has been upgraded. The rotation has questions but so did last year’s.
Beyond the talent, however, the 2024 Mets ran on vibes en route from a 22-33 start to reaching the National League Championship Series. Jose Iglesias, the infielder and part-time singer who helped establish the good energy upon joining the team in late May, is not around anymore. A few other key cogs in the vibes machine are gone, too. Asking the 2025 Mets to replicate the 2024 OMG, Grimace-powered Mets is unrealistic. Teams like that are rare. But vibes matter, and the Mets will need to generate some good ones as they head into a season with higher expectations.
Jeff Passan: Trying to figure out who is good in the American League. The Yankees lost Soto — and gained Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, Devin Williams and Paul Goldschmidt. Their predecessor as AL champion, Texas, added Joc Pederson and Jake Burger, re-signed Nathan Eovaldi, refashioned its bullpen and has a healthy Jacob deGrom. Other playoff teams from last year — Cleveland, Houston, Kansas City, Baltimore, Detroit — still have playoff aspirations. As do the other four AL East teams as well as Seattle and Minnesota. It’s a wide-open league — again — and spring training often gives little clues that make more sense once the standings have sorted themselves out.
Alden Gonzalez: Getting an up-close look at Roki Sasaki. We’ve been hearing so much about him for years, and he is finally in the major leagues, getting set to face the best hitters in the world. Though they’ll monitor him closely, the Los Angeles Dodgers won’t place any restrictions on Sasaki in his first season in the U.S. I want to see how one of the most lauded pitching development programs goes about extracting the greatness Sasaki clearly possesses. And I want to see how major league hitters react to his absurd splitter.
Jesse Rogers: Excited might be too strong, but I’m definitely interested in the use of automatic balls and strikes this spring. Barring a major breakdown in the system, we’re probably a year away from robot umps — at least for some calls — becoming a permanent part of the game.
On the field, it’s cool to see some of the sport’s most well-known grizzled veterans changing teams while trying to drink from the fountain of youth. Can Justin Verlander help lead the Giants out of .500 hell? Same goes for Max Scherzer in Toronto. Their Hall of Fame-worthy stories are down to the final chapters. And please don’t ask me for Dodgers spring training tickets. That’s going to be a scene all spring.
Other than Soto, which player who changed teams this winter are you most interested in seeing in his new uniform?
Olney: Alex Bregman, who is likely to land with the Red Sox, Cubs or Tigers soon; sources in the Astros organization are skeptical he’ll return to Houston. If he goes to Fenway Park, he could pepper the Green Monster while relearning the nuances of playing in the middle infield. If he goes to Chicago — likely on a short-term, Cody Bellinger-type deal — he will have pressure to produce. And if he signs with the Tigers, it would be Detroit’s de facto announcement that with Tarik Skubal two years from free agency, the team’s window to win is now, and the expensive signing of Bregman would be an all-in move.
Passan: Corbin Burnes, who was the Diamondbacks’ rejoinder to everything the Dodgers are trying to do. Arizona is a dangerous, dangerous team. It’s easy to forget they swept Los Angeles in the postseason two years ago and reached the World Series without Burnes, who has the best ERA in baseball over the past five seasons. He joins Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt in one of baseball’s best rotations — one that complements an offense that scored the most runs in baseball last year. The offseason after the signing of Jordan Montgomery went bad, Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick didn’t allow the sour taste to keep him from trying to win, which is more than can be said for many of his contemporaries. If Burnes is his normal self, the Diamondbacks will be the best competition for the Dodgers in the cutthroat NL West.
Castillo: Four years ago, Walker Buehler, who signed a one-year, $21.5 million deal with Boston this offseason, was one of the best pitchers in the majors. The brash right-hander went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA in 33 starts, tossing over 200 innings, for the Dodgers. Then, he got hurt, underwent a second Tommy John surgery, missed the 2023 season and struggled upon returning in 2024 before giving a gutsy postseason effort culminating with recording the final three outs of the World Series.
Buehler is talented, confident and a proven big-game performer. A return to his previous form could be the difference in the Red Sox vaulting from missing the playoffs to becoming a legitimate contender — and result in Buehler receiving the payday expected during his peak next winter.
Gonzalez: Kyle Tucker, because I still don’t think enough people realize how good he is. Only 14 players accumulated more FanGraphs wins above replacement from 2021 to 2023 than Tucker. He was on track to be even better — much better — in his age-27 season in 2024, He had an OPS of 1.175 by June 3 before suffering a shin fracture that kept him out for three months. Tucker has since been traded from the Astros to the Cubs. Free agency is nine months away with a massive payday approaching. And Tucker might be my pick for NL MVP.
Rogers: It’s a tie between Max Fried and Tucker. The former got paid, the latter is hoping for the same. Fried is venturing out from a comfortable situation in Atlanta where players aren’t subjected to the same intensity that New York, Boston or Philadelphia brings. He’ll feel that with the Yankees. Will he thrive under the bright lights?
Meanwhile, Tucker is leaving the only league, team and city he has known in his big league career — just in time for his platform year in a place that is notoriously volatile for left-handed hitters because of weather patterns that vary from season to season. Wrigley Field is due for a good summer, which could turn Tucker into the next $300 million (or more) man next offseason.
Other than Sasaki, who is one player from our top 100 prospects list you are most looking forward to seeing this spring?
Olney: After being dormant for a few years, the Red Sox appear to be on the verge of a breakout, fueled by some high-end prospects — maybe none better than Roman Anthony, who will presumably make his debut this year. Folks in the Boston organization rave about his work ethic and focus, and for all the talk in recent seasons about fellow prospect Marcelo Mayer, Anthony could have an immediate impact once he lands in the big leagues. His slash line in the minors last year: .291/.396/.498. And he dominated in Triple-A after a second-half promotion, accumulating as many walks (31) as strikeouts (31).
Passan: Even before he reaches the big leagues, Chandler Simpson is already one of the most exciting players in baseball. A 5-foot-11, 170-pound outfielder chosen by the Tampa Bay Rays in the competitive-balance round of the 2022 draft out of Georgia Tech, Simpson is the best base-stealing prospect since Billy Hamilton. In his first full minor league season in 2023, Simpson stole 94 bases in 109 attempts. Last year, at High-A and Double-A, Simpson stole 104 bases in 121 attempts over 110 games. Most interesting is how Simpson hit last year. He very rarely strikes out, his left-handed swing devised for contact. At High-A, he batted .364 in nearly 150 plate appearances. He continued in Double-A, batting .351/.401/.407 and walking 29 times against 27 strikeouts in 358 plate appearances. It’s a lot of singles. But it’s also a lot of times on base that are near-automatic to wind up at second. Hitting to a .377 wOBA and 141 wRC+ means you’re very good. And so while Simpson isn’t nearly as lauded as some of the others here, he is a throwback, the sort who’s impossibly fun to watch. Baseball will take all of that it can get.
Castillo: The Martian has landed in left field at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Jasson Dominguez, one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory, is slated to make the Yankees’ Opening Day roster for the first time as the team’s every-day left fielder. You’re probably thinking, “It’s about time!” But know this: Dominguez turned 22 on Friday. The shine might have dimmed from when he signed as a 16-year-old marvel out of the Dominican Republic, but he’s younger than Travis Bazzana, last year’s No. 1 pick. Last season, despite dealing with injuries, Dominguez slashed .314/.376/.504 with 11 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 58 games across three minor league levels before getting called up to the Bronx in September. He looked uncomfortable in the outfield and didn’t produce enough at the plate for the Yankees to give him playing time in October, but his power-speed combo and getting leeway to find his rhythm should give New York an upgrade in left field over Alex Verdugo.
Gonzalez: Jackson Jobe, a 22-year-old right-hander who debuted with the Detroit Tigers late last season, got a taste of playoff baseball and might lock down a rotation spot this year. He’s a great athlete who can easily access velocity, displays an excellent changeup and flashes a cool-looking sweeper. If Jobe makes the proper adjustments, he and Tarik Skubal in the same rotation could win the Tigers the American League Central.
Rogers: I’ll go with Matt Shaw of the Cubs. How many teams rid themselves of every player who played a position during the previous season? That’s what the Cubs did at third base this winter when they jettisoned seven players who saw time at the hot corner. Barring an Alex Bregman sighting, this has left the door open for Shaw to win the job. That’s some serious faith in a guy who has shot up Kiley McDaniel’s prospect rankings, landing at No. 23 to begin the season, but has only 35 Triple-A games under his belt.
Which team are you far more interested in today than you were a year ago at this time?
Olney: The Reds. The oddsmakers have set the early over/under for Cincinnati’s win total at 78.5, just above the team’s 77-85 record last season and that makes no sense. The Reds had easily the worst record in one-run decisions last year (15-29) meaning that if they played last season again with the same group, they’d probably improve by four or five wins — and they should be better this season after bolstering their rotation and lineup. And new manager Terry Francona has demonstrated over and over in his Hall of Fame-caliber career that he is difference-making. In his first year as the Guardians’ manager, Cleveland improved from 68-94 to 92-70.
Passan: The A’s. As eye-roll-inducing as it was to see A’s owner John Fisher named to the league’s executive committee (inviting the person most responsible for killing baseball in Oakland to the most powerful group in the game said all it needed to about the lack of regret for that decision) the team spending this season in Sacramento is better than the one that made a 19-game improvement to 69-93 last year. The A’s spent $67 million on Luis Severino and traded for Jeffrey Springs to shore up their rotation. They added Jose Leclerc to their bullpen and Gio Urshela to their infield. They locked up slugger Brent Rooker long-term. A full year of Lawrence Butler and Jacob Wilson, a bounce back from Zack Gelof, improvement from JJ Bleday, the arrival of Nick Kurtz — squint and you can see a pretty good core and a team that if everything breaks right could have October aspirations.
Castillo: The Red Sox. Fans in Boston aren’t satisfied with the organization’s offseason, but the Red Sox upgraded their biggest weakness (pitching) and might not be done. Acquiring Nolan Arenado or signing Alex Bregman would be quite the finish for a club that will have three top-25 prospects, including the consensus No. 2 prospect behind Sasaki (Anthony), waiting in Triple-A Worcester.
Garrett Crochet looked like an ace in 2024. Buehler was one before his second Tommy John surgery. Patrick Sandoval might help down the stretch. The Red Sox finished 81-81 with a plus-four run differential last season despite a slew of injuries and a pitching drop-off in the second half. Triston Casas is healthy after playing in just 63 games. Trevor Story is healthy after playing in 26 games last season. Rafael Devers, plagued by shoulder injuries last year, should be healthier. Jarren Duran registered a breakout All-Star 2024 season. Wilyer Abreu had a great rookie year. The Red Sox have the talent to return to contention.
Gonzalez: The Giants. I don’t know if they’ll make the playoffs — I see three National League East teams as near-locks, so it will be tough — but Buster Posey has at least made them more exciting in his first year running baseball operations. I don’t know how Willy Adames will age, but pairing him at the top of the order with a healthy Jung Hoo Lee should be fun. I don’t know how much Justin Verlander has left, but inserting him in a group headlined by Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, who is expected to pitch his first full season in three years, is intriguing.
Rogers: Year-to-year, definitely the Mets. We knew nothing of what they would become last season when they opened camp in 2024. Carlos Mendoza was a first-time manager who proved his worth throughout a magical run in New York. After adding Soto and re-signing fan favorite Pete Alonso, the sky seems the limit. But this time, they won’t be just a fun story — they’ll have tons of added pressure. If they can keep it fun and loose like they did last year, the Mets will be a force again. That lineup could be scary.
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.
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Pamela Maldonado
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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