Olney: Why the Blue Jays need to pay Vlad Jr. — today
-
Buster Olney
The Toronto Blue Jays‘ handling of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might best be summarized by Roman philosopher Cicero’s mantra: More is lost by indecision than wrong decision. Step by step, the Jays have put themselves in a terrible position, with the player holding all of the leverage.
But Guerrero still wears their uniform with a season left until he reaches free agency, giving the Jays one last chance to build a beachhead into a future that is otherwise shrouded in murk. The team should meet with him, apologize for wasting his time and wave the white flag in the negotiations.
Last week, the deadline Guerrero set for a contract extension came and went without a deal in place. Assuming Guerrero isn’t asking the Blue Jays to match Juan Soto‘s $765 million contract, they should just say yes to whatever they said no to a week ago.
Allowing Guerrero to reach free agency makes no sense given the Jays’ handling of his career and his contract situation. Time after time, Toronto leadership put off a hard decision on Guerrero, and now the team has to pay the price. The only question is whether the cost comes in Guerrero’s departure, or in his retention.
The Blue Jays’ path to this point reminds me of another team who let indecision cloud the impending free agency of a star player: the Los Angeles Angels and Shohei Ohtani.
The Angels went 73-89 the season before the final year of Ohtani’s contract but still elected to hold on to Ohtani and try to make a run. The Jays went 74-88 in 2024, and their hope is to contend for a playoff spot this year with Guerrero. That’s hardly out of the question. With Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios, they could have a good rotation. If Daulton Varsho suitably recovers from rotator cuff surgery, and if Bo Bichette bounces back, and if Andres Gimenez continues to play elite defense, they could be strong up the middle. If whatever was in Jeff Hoffman‘s physical exam that prompted the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles to blow up agreements with him doesn’t slow him, he could be a solid closer.
Unfortunately for the Jays, part of what should be a hypercompetitive American League East this year, good and solid might not cut it. The New York Yankees are the defending AL champions; the Boston Red Sox are dramatically improved with the additions of Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler and Alex Bregman; the Orioles have their great young core of talent; and the Tampa Bay Rays are always better than expected. Toronto could also finish fifth again.
This 2025 Hail Mary attempt to contend instead of entering a rebuild defers, once again, Guerrero’s status. If the Jays are struggling in July, they could trade him. But with his impending free agency, they might get back only half of what his value might’ve been last summer. If they hold onto him throughout the season and he walks away to another team, they would receive only minimal draft pick compensation for a homegrown star.
How different this all could have been. Some players don’t want to play in Canada for one reason or another. Guerrero was born in Canada — the son of Hall of Fame outfielder Vladimir Guerrero Sr., who starred in Montreal — and signed with the Jays in 2015 for $3.9 million. The Jays’ front office delayed his promotion to the big leagues in 2019, costing him a full year of service time, but Guerrero demonstrated what everyone was so excited about, hitting 15 homers and showing great bat-to-ball skills. In his second full season, he clubbed 48 homers and finished second in the AL MVP race.
His production waned, however, in 2022 and 2023, and along the way there was concern about his conditioning. The Jays could’ve worked out a long-term deal with him years before he hit free agency, as the Kansas City Royals did with Bobby Witt Jr. and as the Cleveland Guardians did with Jose Ramirez. But the Jays waited, which is not surprising: A hallmark of the Jays’ front office in recent years is that it doesn’t often re-sign its own players. As research by Paul Hembekides shows, since 2019 the Jays re-signed Jose Berrios to a seven-year, $131 million deal and Randal Grichuk to a five-year, $52 million contract. Nobody else got more than three years.
After starting slowly last season, Guerrero rebounded — in a big way. From May 27 to July 30, he batted .321, with as many extra-base hits (32) as strikeouts (32). This was the Vladdy Jr. everyone in the industry seemed to be waiting for, and it provided another inflection point for the Jays. In July 2024, Toronto was in the same spot the Los Angeles Angels were with Shohei Ohtani in summer 2022, when the Angels could’ve traded Ohtani with another 15 months of team control and gotten a major haul in return.
And there was another factor for the Jays in July: Soto was headed into free agency and would inevitably raise the ceiling for sluggers. That left Toronto with a choice, in the middle of a lost season — either push to sign Guerrero to a long-term deal before the market was impacted by Soto, or trade him at his maximum value.
The Jays did what the Angels did with Ohtani. They waited.
Guerrero was even better in the last two months of the season, finishing the year with a .323 average and a .940 OPS, winning a Silver Slugger, and finishing sixth in the MVP race. With the Jays out of the playoffs, they had all of October and early November to pick a path. They could’ve pushed for a long-term deal, before Soto started meeting with teams, and if they determined that they couldn’t or didn’t want to sign him, they could’ve put him on the trade market. The feedback rival executives continued to get was: Vladdy wasn’t available.
But the Jays’ front office waited. Again.
And it began a dalliance with Soto, picking a fight against the most valuable franchise in the majors, the Yankees, and the richest owner, the New York Mets‘ Steve Cohen. Edward Rogers, the owner of the Jays, was among those to meet with Soto and his agent Scott Boras.
The Jays’ participation was probably doomed from the start — only Soto knows for sure — but in theory, this could’ve worked for them in this way: As bidders, the Jays had firsthand and early knowledge of how Soto’s contract might affect the market for other players — such as Guerrero. The bidding for Soto went through multiple rounds, over a few weeks, and it was as if the Jays were benefiting from insider trading, all aboveboard.
Once the numbers for Soto went over $600 million and zoomed toward infinity and beyond, the Jays had to know Guerrero’s ask would be enormous. The Jays had knowledge other teams did not, and once more, they had the option of pushing the talks to a resolution — deal or no deal — and if not, then trade him.
Instead, the Jays waited. Again.
Their doubts have been rational, given what the best first basemen have been paid in recent years. It has been more than a decade since any first baseman got $200 million, let alone $350 million or $450 million or $500 million.
But given the Jays’ participation in the Soto sweepstakes, the concern over Guerrero’s defensive position shouldn’t be a factor. Toronto was apparently willing to pay Soto something close to the monster deal he got with the Mets, and it’s not as if Soto is a good defender; there will probably be a time midway through his 15-year contract that he will shift into a designated hitter role. If the Jays had signed him, he would’ve been a DH at some point, and the Jays were OK with that.
“If you’re going to pay Soto or Vladdy, you’re paying for the bat,” one rival executive said. “You’re paying for the power and the contact with damage, for a player at a young age.”
Soto became a free agent at age 26. Guerrero turns 26 next month and will be a free agent in the fall. He might not be the hitter Soto is, but he is one of the game’s best hitters, and for now, he is a Blue Jay. Right now, it’s a one-bidder negotiation.
When the Jays pursued Ohtani, meeting with him in Florida, they were going against the Los Angeles Dodgers and other teams. When they talked to Soto a few months ago, they had to vie with the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and other teams for his attention.
In the Ohtani negotiations, the Jays never had a take-down price, a number at which they were assured they would sign him. They bid into a negotiation silo, not knowing for sure what other teams had offered, and Ohtani picked the Dodgers. With Soto, the Jays kept upping their ante, not knowing where the numbers would end, never sure whether Soto would actually seriously consider their offer or whether there even was a number that would get them the slugger.
With Guerrero, there is no question whether he would sign to play in Toronto, as there was with Ohtani and Soto; Guerrero has played with the Jays his entire career, and he says he wants to continue playing in Toronto. In Guerrero’s case, there is a take-down number. As he said last week after the negotiations stalled, “I have my number.” The Jays know that number, in a way they didn’t know it with Ohtani and Soto and many other stars who’ve refused to take their money in recent winters.
For the Jays, desperately in need of a franchise face, knowledge of the take-down number is worth everything.
And they should say yes to it. Today.
Seven of eight first-round series in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and No. 8 gets rolling on Tuesday.
The Battle of Florida between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers begins anew (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with both clubs looking like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender if they can survive the intrastate showdown.
Cats-Bolts is the third game of four Tuesday on the ESPN family of networks, following New Jersey–Carolina (6 p.m. ET, ESPN) and Ottawa–Toronto (7:30 p.m., ESPN2), and preceding the nightcap, Minnesota–Vegas (11 p.m. ET, ESPN).
What are the key storylines heading into Tuesday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down Monday night, and the Three Stars of Monday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 2 (CAR leads 1-0) | 6 p.m. ET | ESPN
Game 1 sure did not go as planned for the Devils. A win at the legendarily loud Lenovo Center would’ve been stretching it, but losing Brenden Dillon, Cody Glass and Luke Hughes to injury was not an ideal outcome either.
They’ll hope to rebound Tuesday before the series shifts to Newark. Closing the shot attempt differential might help, as the famously possession-savvy Hurricanes held a 45-24 edge on shots on goal in Game 1.
For years, the knock on Carolina was that it lacked that one goal scorer who could get the Canes over the hump in the playoffs. Many observers thought the Canes had acquired such a player in Mikko Rantanen in January. Ironically, it was the player Carolina acquired in its subsequent trade of Rantanen to Dallas — Logan Stankoven — who scored two goals in Game 1. Will he add to that total in Game 2?
Of note heading into Tuesday’s game, the Devils have come back to win a playoff series after losing the first game 11 out of 26 times (42%); that figure drops to 20% if they fall behind 0-2. The Hurricanes have won six of their past seven series after winning Game 1.
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 2 (TOR leads 1-0) | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
The atmosphere was intense for Game 1, and the Maple Leafs’ “Core Four” led the way: Mitch Marner (one goal, two assists), William Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Auston Matthews (two assists) each filled up the scoresheet. A continuation of that output will obviously help Toronto overwhelm its provincial neighbor.
Slowing down the Maple Leafs could depend on discipline, according to Ottawa captain Brady Tkachuk. “We took too many penalties, they scored on [them] and that’s the game,” Tkachuk told reporters after Game 1. “So that’s on us. We’ve got to be more disciplined.”
The Sens will also need to capitalize on their chances. According to Stathletes, Ottawa had five high-danger scoring chances in this game, and produced only two goals.
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Game 1 | 8:30 p.m ET | ESPN
This is the fourth time that the two Sunshine State franchises have met in the postseason, and all four of the meetings have occurred since 2021.
In each instance, the winner of the series has gone on to reach the Stanley Cup Final — Lightning in 2021 and 2022; Panthers in 2024 — while the 2021 Lightning and 2024 Panthers won it all.
Unsurprisingly, Nikita Kucherov is Tampa Bay’s leading scorer against Florida, with 25 points (five goals, 20 assists) in 15 games. Aleksander Barkov is the Panthers’ leading scorer against the Lightning, with 13 points (three goals, 10 assists) in 15 games.
The two teams split their meetings in the regular season, with the Lightning winning the most recent, 5-1 on April 15.
Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights
Game 2 (VGK leads 1-0) | 11 p.m. ET | ESPN
The underdog Wild set a physical tone to the series in Game 1, outhitting the Golden Knights 54-29, but the hosts emerged with a 4-2 victory. Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden (two) were the goal scorers for Vegas, and Matt Boldy was responsible for both Minnesota goals.
Howden, who had never scored double-digit goals until his 23 this season, earned praise from coach Bruce Cassidy after Game 1. “He didn’t change his game,” Cassidy told reporters. “He played physical. He’s part of our penalty kill. He’s always out when the goalie’s out, typically one of the six guys we use a lot because of his versatility. He can play wing. He can take draws as a center. He’s been real good for us all year and good again tonight.”
Sunday’s game was the NHL debut for 2024 first-round pick Zeev Buium, who just finished his season with the University of Denver. He played 13 minutes, 37 seconds and finished with one shot on goal.
Arda’s Three Stars of Monday
The greatest goal scorer in NHL history just keeps finding the back of the net. He had two goals, including the overtime winner, as the Caps take Game 1 3-2 despite a valiant third period effort from Montreal to send it to the extra frame.
Connor had the game-winning goal in the third period for the second straight game, as Winnipeg takes both games at home for the 2-0 series lead on the Blues.
Further proof that the Oilers are never out of the game, McDavid helped erase a 4-0 deficit with a goal and three assists, despite the Oilers falling 6-5 late in a thrilling Game 1.
Monday’s scores
Capitals 3, Canadiens 2 (OT)
Washington leads 1-0
Much of the regular season was spent focused on Alex Ovechkin‘s “Gr8 Chase” of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-scoring record, and he scored historic goal No. 895 on Sunday, April 6. It turns out, Ovi likes the spotlight. The Capitals superstar opened the scoring in the game, and bookended it with the overtime winner — his first ever, believe it or not — as the Caps survived a thriller in Game 1, following Nick Suzuki‘s tying goal with 4:15 remaining. Full recap.
1:51
Alex Ovechkin’s OT goal wins Game 1 for Capitals
Alex Ovechkin’s second goal of the game is an overtime winner that gives the Capitals a 1-0 series lead vs. the Canadiens.
Jets 2, Blues 1
Winnipeg leads 2-0
Game 1 between the two clubs was tightly contested until the Jets took over in the third period. That trend took hold again on Monday — the score remained tied into 1-1 the third period, when Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor scored at the 1:43 mark, and the Jets were able to hold the Blues off the scoreboard for the duration. Connor’s linemate Mark Scheifele assisted on the game-winner and opened the scoring, giving him a league-leading five points this postseason. Full recap.
0:40
Kyle Connor scores clutch goal to put Jets ahead in 3rd period
Kyle Connor extends Winnipeg’s lead after a clutch goal early in the 3rd period vs. St. Louis.
Stars 4, Avalanche 3 (OT)
Series tied 1-1
The series that every observer thought would be the closest in the first round didn’t look that way in Game 1, as the Avs ran over the Stars en route to a 5-1 win. Game 2 was much more in line with expectations, as the two Western powerhouses needed OT to settle things. Colin Blackwell was the hero for Dallas, scoring with 2:14 remaining in the first OT period. Full recap.
0:50
Colin Blackwell comes up with big OT winner for Stars
Colin Blackwell sends the Stars faithful into jubilation with a great overtime winner to tie the series at 1-1 vs. the Avalanche.
Kings 6, Oilers 5
Los Angeles leads 1-0
Monday’s nightcap was a delight to those who like offensive hockey and were willing to stay up late. The Kings roared out to a four-goal lead late in the second period before Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl scored to pull within three with six seconds remaining. The two teams traded goals to start the third, before the Oilers notched three in a row to tie up the festivities with 1:28 remaining on Connor McDavid‘s first of the 2025 playoffs. L.A.’s Phillip Danault sent his club’s fans home happy, scoring the pivotal goal with 42 seconds left. Full recap.
0:46
Kings retake lead on Phillip Danault’s goal in final minute
Phillip Danault restores the lead for the Kings with a goal vs. the Oilers in the closing moments.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway