Kurkjian: Who’s on first? A closer look at the decline of the first baseman
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Tim Kurkjian
On the fictional St. Louis Wolves team in Abbott and Costello’s famed routine, the third baseman’s name is I Don’t Know, which is appropriate because, for large stretches of baseball history, teams have tried, often without success, to find a quality third baseman. And yet, in 2025, it appears the search has shifted across the diamond. For one of the few times in major league history, we’re asking, Who’s on First?
First base is a position in flux. In 2024, major league first basemen batted .246, their lowest total since 1900. They also posted an OPS of .736, their lowest since 1968, the Year of the Pitcher (the highest OPS by first basemen in any season was .882 in 2000, during the steroid era, and a little more recently, .853 in 2006). A first baseman has won a Most Valuable Player Award 32 times, most of any position (right field is second), but last season marked the second time in 10 years that no first baseman finished in the top five of the MVP balloting.
“There are probably only five or six [starting first basemen in the game now] who fit the mold of a typical first baseman, but there are 24 or 25 who don’t,” said Pat Tabler, who played 444 games at first base in the major leagues from 1981 to 1992. “In my fantasy baseball league, if you don’t get one of those five or six top guys, you got no chance. Now, you’re just like, ‘Whatever happened to the Eddie Murrays? Where are the Eddie Murrays today?”’
There is still talent at the position. Freddie Freeman, the MVP of the 2024 World Series for the Los Angeles Dodgers, is a great player, a future Hall of Famer, as is the Philadelphia Phillies’ Bryce Harper, who is starting his second full season at first base. The Atlanta Braves’ Matt Olson hit 54 home runs in 2023. The Toronto Blue Jays’ Vlad Guerrero is one of the best young hitters in the game. The Houston Astros’ Christian Walker, a brilliant defender, has hit 95 homers over the past three years. And since Pete Alonso made his New York Mets debut in 2019, the only player to hit more home runs is New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge.
But the turnover has been glaring. Half the teams this season will have a different primary first baseman than in 2024. The days of the classic first baseman such as John Olerud, Don Mattingly, Mark Grace — long, rangy, great hitter, left-handed — seem to be over for now.
We spoke to luminaries of the game — those who have played the position, plus those who managed them — to find out exactly what has changed and why.
“It’s one of the important positions on the field,” said Keith Hernandez, often considered the greatest defensive first baseman of all time. “The numbers don’t lie. It’s not as important, or as productive, as it was.”
“I look at the first baseman that I played with and against — there were great first basemen everywhere,” said former first baseman Mark Teixeira, who hit 409 home runs from 2003 to 2016. “I only made three All-Star teams. There were great first basemen for my entire career. It has almost turned into a throwaway position.”
“Scouts tell me that the least drafted position in baseball is first base. There just aren’t any,” said Princeton baseball coach Scott Bradley. “The players who end up there were moved from other positions, unless they are projected as a 40- or 50-home run guy. It has become a stopgap position, a last-ditch effort.”
“It used to be a mainstay position; it’s not the same,” Milwaukee Brewers veteran first baseman Rhys Hoskins said. “Power is always needed. Now we’re seeing shortstops hitting 25, 30 home runs. There has been more of a focus to get athleticism in the middle of the diamond. First base has become more of a place to fill a gap.”
Perhaps it’s cyclical. In 2024, first basemen such as Olson, Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt had subpar seasons. Maybe in five years, there will be multiple superstars at the position. Over the past five years, surefire Hall of Fame first basemen Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera (who was more productive at third base) retired, as has Joey Votto, who has a good chance to make it to Cooperstown on the first ballot. And with the universal DH being established two years ago, a good hitter in both leagues can now be used as a DH, perhaps reducing the production at first base. As for first basemen posting their lowest batting average since 1900, and their lowest OPS since 1968, the stuff hitters see today is stunningly good, and offensive numbers are down at most positions.
But the decline at first base has been steeper than most. First basemen have had the biggest drop in OPS among all positions since 2015, according to ESPN Research.
“These are strange times,” said former major league manager Buck Showalter. “First base has become a one-dimensional place. How many prototype first basemen are out there? One of them, Pete Alonso, had trouble getting a two-year deal [as a free agent this winter]. If you have a good first baseman these days, it’s gold.”
Why have old-school first basemen become so rare?
“I think a lot of it comes down to body type,” said former major league manager Bobby Valentine. “The increase in velocity has negated the skills of the slower, thicker-body guys. And the taller guys, too, with the bigger strike zone, that makes you easier to attack. We are looking for smaller guys, shorter guys to play first base these days. The slider-speed bat guys, there aren’t many places for them in the game today.”
“You look at first basemen from back in the day and they look like football players and basketball players,” Tabler said. “Those guys are now staying in football and basketball, because it’s like straight to the NFL and the NBA. They’re not playing baseball anymore. That’s why I think there aren’t as many [first basemen] as there used to be. In football, you go to college for a couple of years, and you strike it rich when you are 20. Or, you go play football, and you get paid in college now. These guys just aren’t playing baseball.”
Teixeira said, “Maybe teams see all these injuries and understand that players are going to move around during a season, so the bigger first basemen aren’t as valuable to a team anymore. Maybe, early in their careers, players stop lifting all the time. Instead of getting bigger and stronger, they think they need to stay light and agile to be able to play multiple positions. The old way of thinking was to put the biggest, slowest guy at first base. He happens to rake, and he can hit all day long. Maybe we’re not taking a young player and just throwing him out at first base. You’re working with him more to develop all his skills.”
And the defensive structure of the game has also changed the look of the position.
“The position is not about power,” said San Francisco Giants manager Bob Melvin. “It’s about defense.”
“In today’s game, it should be about defense at first base,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said.
“I think the genesis of this was when the young GMs came to value on-base percentage and the shifting of the defense,” Tabler said. “If you have three defenders on the left side, you need a first baseman who plays basically like a second baseman. There’s no way Luis Arraez or Michael Busch could have ever played first base in the 1980s. But they do now because when they were moved over to first base, teams were shifting, and you needed a first baseman who could cover all that ground on the right side. That’s where this started. Teams started to value defense more than home runs. We’ll find power somewhere else.”
Teams are looking for power in traditional non-power positions. Thirty years ago, Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who is 6-5, likely would have been a first baseman. So would Pittsburgh Pirates‘ shortstop-turned-center fielder, Oneil Cruz, who is 6-7.
“I had [Erubiel] Durazo [at first base], Travis Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Don Mattingly, Chris Davis. I don’t know if we’re spitting out those type of guys anymore,” Showalter said. “When you go to college, you won’t see that guy. Everyone wants to be Bobby Witt [Jr.], a power-hitting shortstop/second baseman. The old baseball player development manual said, ‘Make him play catch, short, second, center field until he shows he can’t [do it] defensively. Don’t ever just start at first base.’ I used to tell [former Baltimore Orioles general manager] Dan Duquette that [Ryan] Mountcastle had no chance to play shortstop. Never. Never. Never. But Dan was so stubborn. Teams are so stubborn about that today. And Mountcastle ended up at first base.”
Tabler said, “GMs are so enamored with players who can play multiple positions because they want all those interchangeable parts, so you’re working with a 32-man roster instead of 26. They are so enamored with mixing and matching, to have someone ready when they bring a lefty in in the sixth inning. So, a guy who is pigeon-holed, you’re a first baseman, only a first baseman, they look at that and say, ‘That’s not good.”’
Alonso only plays first base. He is big, not particularly mobile and not particularly good defensively.
“He is the poster boy [for the changes in the position],” Valentine said. “He had a hard time getting a contract.”
Anthony Rizzo, a free agent, only plays first base. He made $14 million last year during a down (and injury-filled) season and, for now, he has no job. There is, as there always is in baseball, a financial component. If you platoon at first base, or choose an agile defender who doesn’t hit much, instead of a big, immobile one who might hit 35 home runs, you likely can pay that player less.
Even though some teams are stressing defense over power at first, “No one teaches defense at first base anymore,” Showalter said. “Guys like Keith Hernandez and Mattingly were so valuable with their defense.”
Said Hernandez: “Defense used to be a major plus at first base. Other than the catcher and the pitcher, no one is more involved in the game than the first baseman. Defense just isn’t as stressed as much today.”
Bradley said, “If you are designing the position, first base is a left-hander’s position in every way. Holding runners on, the bunt play, the position is built for a left-handed thrower. John Olerud is what a first baseman is supposed to look like: tall, long, left-handed. After college, when he pitched, he never dabbled in another position, like the outfield. He was always a first baseman. There aren’t any like him anymore.”
Indeed. Of the 30 primary first basemen in the major leagues, only four throw left-handed.
“I am stunned by that,” Hernandez said. “It is a position best played by a left-hander.”
But Hernandez, a left-handed thrower, is different from today’s first basemen. Instead of playing the outfield or third base or catching, then moving to first base, he started playing first at age 6, and played it full time at age 10. Now, very few are brought up that way. They play another position until they can’t.
But there is hope that things at first base can, and will, change. Bradley, Princeton’s baseball coach, has recruited a high school kid from California named Tomas Cernius, who is 6-3, 245 pounds, and bats and throws left-handed.
“He is a first baseman only,” Bradley said.
Tabler said that now the shift has been outlawed to some degree, he’s hopeful the position is going to change back to the old days of size, production and power.
“We’re going to get back to sluggers like Triston Casas,” Tabler said, referring to the Boston Red Sox first baseman, who is 6-5, 245 pounds, is exceptionally strong and only plays first base. “Give me a guy who hits 40 homers and drives in 125 and plays decent enough defense at first base. Hey, here’s Pete Alonso, he’s going to hit 40 homers and drive in 100 runs and answer the bell 150 plus times a year. What’s wrong with that?”
Nothing.
But right now, that’s not Who’s on First.
The Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights are at the same crossroads, facing 2-1 deficits ahead of road playoff games Monday.
First up on the schedule is Capitals-Carolina Hurricanes (7 p.m. ET, TNT), followed by Golden Knights-Edmonton Oilers (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Sunday’s games and the Three Stars of Sunday from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 4 | 7 p.m. ET | TNT
With a 2-1 series lead, the Canes are now -650 favorites to win this series, while the Capitals are +425. Carolina has also jumped to second in the Stanley Cup futures table, at +350, while the Capitals are now +2500.
This is the second straight series in which the Canes led 2-1 (they beat the Devils in five games in Round 1). Carolina/Hartford is 9-4 all time in best-of-seven series when leading 2-1.
Game 3 was the Canes’ first playoff shutout win since Game 2 of the 2022 second round against the Rangers. It was the Caps’ first shutout loss since Game 5 of the 2020 first round against the Islanders.
Frederik Andersen‘s shutout was the fourth of his playoff career, but his first postseason clean sheet as a Hurricane. He joins Cam Talbot as the only active goalies with a playoff shutout for three different franchises.
Andrei Svechnikov now has six goals this postseason, which is the 17th instance of a Hurricanes/Whalers player scoring six or more goals in a single postseason.
The four goals allowed by Logan Thompson in Game 3 were more than his combined goals against in Games 1 and 2, and the most since Game 3 of the first round against Montreal (five).
Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers
Game 4 | 9:30 p.m. ET | TNT
The Oilers’ and Knights’ series odds contracted after Vegas’ Game 3 win. Edmonton is now -250 to win, whereas Vegas is +200 to do so. The Oilers have the third-shortest Cup futures odds at +360, while the Knights are third longest at +1000.
Vegas’ Reilly Smith was credited with the winning goal in Game 3 with 0.4 seconds left on the clock after the puck angled in off Leon Draisaitl‘s stick. It goes in the record books as being scored with one second left in the third period — tied for the latest go-ahead goal in regulation in Stanley Cup playoff history with Colorado’s Nazem Kadri in 2020 and Carolina’s Jussi Jokinen in 2009.
Jack Eichel enters Game 4 riding an active six-game assist streak, which is tied for the Golden Knights’ postseason record. Mark Stone (2023) and Smith (2018) also accomplished the feat.
Connor McDavid now has 40 career playoff goals; he’s the seventh Oilers player to reach that benchmark.
Edmonton’s Corey Perry scored two goals in the first period of Game 3, becoming the third-oldest player in Stanley Cup playoff history with a multigoal period; at 39 years, 359 days old, he is behind Nicklas Lidstrom (41) and Teemu Selanne (40) at the time they had a multigoal period in a playoff game.
Öcal’s Three Stars from Sunday
The reigning Stanley Cup champions played their best game of the postseason. They limited the Maple Leafs to 22 shots on goal, owned the neutral zone, and peppered Toronto’s Joseph Woll with 37 shots en route to a 2-0 win. (Small shoutout to Woll, who played great — this game could’ve easily been 8-0.)
With a goal and two assists in Game 3, Rantanen became the first player in Stanley Cup playoffs history with five three-point games through a team’s first 10 contests. His first of those games was in Game 5 of the first round.
Bobrovsky didn’t have the busiest night of his playoff career, but he stopped all 22 shots on goal, his fifth career postseason clean sheet.
Sunday’s recaps
Dallas Stars 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
DAL leads 2-1 | Game 4 Tuesday
The Stars returned home having earned home-ice advantage in the series with a split of the first two games in Winnipeg, and from the start of this one, they looked like they did not want to give it back. Dallas’ Roope Hintz scored 2:27 in on a power play, and while Kyle Connor answered midway through the first, Thomas Harley responded thereafter, giving Dallas a 2-1 edge after the first. Nino Niederreiter scored his fourth goal of the playoffs to knot the game at two, but then the third period was all Stars. Alexander Petrovic and Mikko Rantanen scored within 50 seconds of each other, and Wyatt Johnston put the exclamation point on the contest with a goal at 14:06. Full recap.
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Tempers flare late after Max Domi’s big hit on Aleksander Barkov
Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov is shaken up after taking a hit from Max Domi late in the game.
Florida Panthers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Series tied 2-2 | Game 5 Wednesday
It’s down to a best-of-three for the Atlantic Division crown. Carter Verhaeghe kicked off the scoring for the Panthers at 15:45 of the first, and the 1-0 score would persist until 12:09 of the third, when Sam Bennett added his fifth of the postseason to make it 2-0. That was more than enough for Sergei Bobrovsky, who saved all 23 shots the Maple Leafs sent on goal. Joseph Woll was no slouch in the Leafs’ cage, either, saving 35 of 37. Tempers flared late in the game after Toronto’s Max Domi boarded Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov and a small melee ensued. Will that carry over into Game 5? Full recap.
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Wyatt Johnston pokes in Stars’ 3rd goal of 3rd period
Wyatt Johnston taps in a goal for the Stars to pad their lead in the third period vs. the Jets.
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Ryan S. Clark
LAS VEGAS — Jack Eichel is everything everywhere all at once for the Vegas Golden Knights.
You’re going to see Eichel start games. You’re going to see him score goals. You’re going to see his work lead to goals for his teammates. You’re going to see him score on the power play. Chances are — and not as in Chance, the Golden Knights’ mascot — you already knew that.
But what you might not realize? You’re also going to see him winning defensive zone faceoffs while playing a big role on the penalty kill. You’re going to see him among the special group that Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy trusts to either get the lead or defend the lead in the final two minutes.
Eichel’s status as a top-line center made him the centerpiece of possibly the biggest trade in the history of a franchise that has embodied the winning-at-all-costs philosophy. But Eichel’s focus was on something more: becoming a complete center who can be sent out on the ice in any situation.
Getting there involved earning Cassidy’s trust — which meant arriving at a certain realization about his game.
“When I got here, we had Chandler Stephenson, who is a really good-way center. You have William Karlsson, who is a really good two-way center,” Eichel said. “I looked around and said, ‘If I want to get the ice time and be trusted in these situations, I have to earn the trust of the coach and become more detailed and responsible defensively.'”
For all the different moves that Golden Knights general manager Kelly McCrimmon has made to tweak his roster, there are constants. One of them is having a stack of two-way centers on all four lines, to the point that one of them might be moved to the wing because the Golden Knights have that much depth.
Not that Eichel couldn’t be used in defensive situations earlier in his career. It’s just that the No. 2 pick of the 2015 NHL draft was always known more for what he did in the offensive zone, going back to his time at Boston University, where he won the Hobey Baker Award in his lone season, and in six seasons with the Buffalo Sabres.
“I [penalty] killed a little bit when I was in Buffalo, and sometimes when you have a team that’s not winning, you can be honed as a poor defensive forward or a defensive liability,” Eichel said. “I also think just part of it is maturity. It’s understanding what it takes to win, and coming here and having the opportunity to play in this system with this organization, and then allowing me to grow my game, and then having the opportunity to do that.”
THERE WERE A NUMBER of terms that were associated with Eichel when he was a draft prospect in 2015: Future captain. Future All-Star. Future franchise savior.
Being the strongest penalty killer, however, wasn’t one of them.
Eichel acknowledges he was on the penalty kill with the Sabres. It was enough to make him a contributor, but he never was the center anchoring a short-handed unit. The most short-handed minutes he received in a single season was 53:13 in his third season in Buffalo, according to Natural Stat Trick.
“It’s about the details, but I think a lot of young players when they come into the league are a bit raw,” Eichel explained. “They’re still used to having the puck on their stick for so much time during the game and they rely on their offense. You have to find out ways to round your game off and become a more complete player.”
Getting traded to Vegas in November 2021 was a significant shift. It took Eichel from a franchise that struggled to win — despite finding lots of talented players — to an organization for which “failure” was finishing that 2021-22 season with 94 points and missing the postseason by a single point — after reaching the playoffs in four consecutive campaigns.
That playoff miss prompted the Golden Knights to move on from coach Peter DeBoer and hire Cassidy, who had just been let go by the Boston Bruins. In Cassidy, the Golden Knights got an experienced coach whose defensive philosophies were at the core of why the Bruins reached the playoffs in six straight seasons.
“It did take time,” Karlsson said about learning Cassidy’s system. “We weren’t used to it. But once we learn it, you react with your instincts. You don’t have to think about it anymore because it’s a really good system. He usually has the center in a really good position, but also a really good position to transition into the offensive zone. But there are a lot of defensive details.”
Eichel made an impact in his first full season with Vegas in 2022-23. He led the Golden Knights with 66 points, and his 27 goals were second on the team. Eichel also led the club with 223 shots on goal, while scoring 14 power-play points.
The way McCrimmon constructed the Golden Knights meant that for Eichel to attain more ice time in those crucial situations, he needed to find room in a crowded landscape. The Knights had Karlsson and Stephenson. And they also had Ivan Barbashev, Brett Howden, Nicolas Roy, Reilly Smith and Mark Stone as part of the forward core. All of them logged more short-handed minutes than Eichel when they won the Stanley Cup in 2023.
Still, Eichel would be second on the team in 5-on-5 minutes during the playoffs behind Jonathan Marchessault, while finishing with six goals and 26 points in 22 games.
How did Eichel go about letting Cassidy know that he could be trusted in those situations? It wasn’t through anything he said. It was about using every practice and every game to prove he was ready to handle those demands.
“If I’m put in a situation and I don’t produce a result that is positive for the group? Then, I’m not going to have opportunities,” Eichel said. “It’s about gaining trust through good play, working with the coaches on the structure, what they are looking for and then being able to go out and execute it. I think that’s been a big, big thing.”
Even if he wasn’t heavily used on the penalty kill with the Sabres, Eichel was still playing a lot. He averaged more than 19 minutes per game in every season in Buffalo, and had four straight seasons of more than 20 minutes per contest.
In his first season with Cassidy in 2022-23, Eichel averaged a career-low 18:46 of ice time per game in the regular season, and logged 18:59 per game in the playoffs en route to the Cup.
The investment Eichel made in becoming a more responsible player paved the way for his increased minutes in the seasons that followed. There was also an opportunity for someone to take those short-handed minutes, because Smith was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins following the Cup win in 2023.
Eichel would finish 2023-24 with a career-high 20:31 in ice time per game in 2023-24, and 123:48 in short-handed ice time, which was second among all Vegas centers behind Karlsson. He was also second in total power-play ice time, and seventh in total 5-on-5 ice time on the team — mainly due to missing 19 games.
“We’ve always had good centers. I think we definitely took a crazy step forward when we added Jack,” said Stone, a two-time Selke Trophy finalist as the game’s best two-way forward. “You go from having three guys to four guys, maybe five guys, even. Last year, he kind of took over and this year he took over for Stephenson.”
LOSING MARCHESSAULT AND STEPHENSON to free agency — in an offseason in which they saw six players from their 2023 Stanley Cup-winning team depart — meant the Golden Knights needed to find solutions to make up for those departures.
Eichel provided the Golden Knights with the best season of his career. His 66 assists and 94 points were both career highs. Some point out that Eichel could have had his first 100-point campaign if not for missing five games.
Then there’s his usage. Eichel led all Golden Knights forwards in average ice time (a career high of 20:32 per game), 5-on-5 ice time and power-play minutes. As for short-handed minutes? Eichel led all forwards in that too, by a margin of 35 minutes more than Howden. He was second in defensive zone faceoffs taken.
There was also an underlying theme of limiting mistakes. Vegas finished the regular season with the second-fewest penalty minutes in the NHL. And yes, Eichel was at the heart of that too, as he had only eight penalty minutes.
“It helps when you have the puck a lot,” Stone said. “He’s good in the D-zone, but he has the puck on his stick more than he doesn’t. He plays the D-zone quick, but when you’re that good of a player, the other team is thinking about not making mistakes.”
Karlsson explained how Cassidy’s system can be physically demanding for anyone playing down the middle. He said there are the natural expectations that come with playing center in today’s NHL. But one of the reasons why the Golden Knights place such an emphasis on conditioning and strength training is so their centers are prepared to play those longer shifts in the event they can’t get off the ice.
Stone added that Cassidy’s structure means centers are doing “a lot of skating,” while the wingers are expected to deny the other team from getting shots from the point and being active in the top of the ice.
“He’s been handling it well this year,” Karlsson said. “He’s in Year 3 now of Butch and his assistants. It’s kind of natural to him now and he’s good. He’s good at picking up things like stripping a guy off the top as he’s a big, strong guy. He reads the game well, so he’s really turning into a 200-foot player.”
During Cassidy’s time with the Bruins, he worked with venerable two-way centers such as six-time Selke Trophy winner Patrice Bergeron and stalwart second-line pivot David Krejci. In discussing those two, Cassidy admitted that they “probably taught me more than I taught them.”
But when it came to his conversations with Eichel, Cassidy said that he talked about what he saw from Bergeron and Krejci — the value they saw and provided in efficient operations in the defensive zone.
Cassidy said he and his staff started seeing that investment in Eichel pay off during their championship season. He’s since grown in those responsibilities as a two-way player who can now be used in every situation.
“That’s on the player,” Cassidy said. “They’ve got to decide if that’s what they want to do because it’s not easy to check. It’s a mindset a lot of nights, and we’ve got to be going to work and he’s done it. He’s getting credit for it, and he should.”
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Buster Olney
Teams are traditionally split into two camps leading up to the Major League Baseball trade deadline — those acquiring talent and those trading it away. But the addition of a third wild-card team for each league in 2022, which created a 12-team playoff field, has helped foster a third category: opportunists.
These clubs are on the fringe of contention, aiming to take advantage of a thin trade market by putting high asking prices on some of their players, hoping a desperate contender buys in — for maximum value.
Adders. Dealers. Opportunists.
This is just one of a number of developing conditions that are helping to form the 2025 trade market. Let’s dig into all the X factors that will rule this year’s July 31 deadline based on what executives around the league are saying.
1. There could be more opportunists this year.
The Milwaukee Brewers are hovering around .500 in an absolutely stacked National League, and even though they could be within range of the division lead in July, it would be with diminished hope if the Chicago Cubs continue to build on their strong start. Additionally, it might be unlikely that in an NL packed with playoff-caliber teams — the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves in the East, and the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks in the West — that Milwaukee could even win a wild-card spot. The Brewers have better chances of taking the NL Central (13%) than earning a wild-card berth (5.3%), according to Fangraphs.
This could lead to the Brewers doing what the Tampa Bay Rays did at the trade deadline last year — capitalize on there being so few dealers on the market. Freddy Peralta has been one of the league’s best starters this year, and he’s earning a very affordable $8 million this year, with Milwaukee holding an $8 million option for next season. If the Orioles landed him, he would instantly become their ace. For the Yankees, he could be a bedrock behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodon. If Peralta stays healthy, his value will never be higher than it is now.
The Rays were the opportunists of last summer, flipping Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners with two-and-a-half years of team control remaining and trading Isaac Paredes to the Cubs despite trailing by just 1½ games for the third wild card on the last Sunday of July. Tampa Bay didn’t go into full sell mode; rather, it saw a stark trade market — “There are no good players available,” one executive said in the middle of last July — and capitalized.
It’s possible — maybe even likely — that the Brewers won’t choose this path. Owner Mark Attanasio is seen by his peers as competitive, someone who places a high value on making the playoffs. Some rival execs don’t believe Milwaukee would consider trading Peralta if the team is still within range of the Cubs, who are managed by former Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell.
But for some of the teams stuck amid the pack of contenders, it’s something worth considering:
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St. Louis Cardinals: They’re on a winning streak, and they’ve communicated to other teams that even if they aren’t a front-runner, they might keep their tradable players in what is the last season of John Mozeliak’s tenure as head of baseball operations.
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Minnesota Twins: They could dangle Byron Buxton, their dynamic and oft-injured center fielder, into the trade conversations. Buxton is healthy and playing well, and he’s under contract for the next three seasons at $15.1 million per year.
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Toronto Blue Jays: Now that they’ve signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to anchor their team for a long time, they could look at the best ways to shape a future around him, and weigh offers for players such as Chris Bassitt.
One exec working for a contender doesn’t believe the list of opportunists will be long.
“Usually, what they ask for is unrealistic,” he said. “They’ll ask for your four best prospects and you say no and they move on and keep the player.”
2. The general mediocrity of the American League could greatly reduce its number of dealers.
The Chicago White Sox are rebuilding and open for business, but the front office of any other team in the AL could convince itself that a playoff bid is possible — because it just seems like there are few, if any, great teams.
The Baltimore Orioles might be the best working example of this phenomenon. The start of the season has been disastrous for Baltimore, which has a rotation that has been pummeled regularly. But it’s hard to imagine the Orioles surrendering early, given their success of the past two seasons and their roster of young position players. So, they could be a club that is unwilling to part ways with talent at the deadline, even if they have a losing record.
3. The teams already viewed as potential subtractors might not have the talent contenders want.
Clubs such as the Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins and White Sox don’t have much to offer in the eyes of rival evaluators. Other teams have monitored Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara and White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr., but both are struggling early in the season. Alcantara has an 8.42 ERA in seven starts since his return from elbow surgery, while Robert’s early slash line is .186/.293/.326, which doesn’t boost other teams’ interest — nor the leverage of the White Sox.
4. It appears the market for outfielders will be very thin.
Typically, the upcoming free agent class serves as a tool to define most of the players who could be traded before that year’s deadline — and quite simply, in the outfield, the pickings beyond Kyle Tucker are few.
The would-be opportunists could take advantage of a really soft outfield market and get value if they’re willing to dangle outfielders under team control beyond this season. For example, the Twins could set a solid price for Buxton and the Jays would probably draw a lot of interest for Daulton Varsho, an elite defender who won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season.
5. Very few good starting pitchers are expected to be available.
If the Cardinals decide to deal players, right-hander Erick Fedde, who has a 3.86 ERA this season, could draw some interest. Fellow right-handed starter Sonny Gray is a three-time All-Star, but his contract is very backloaded — he’s owed $35 million in 2026 — and the last time he was traded to a contender midseason (from the Athletics to New York Yankees in 2017), it did not go well.
6. A Nolan Arenado trade could still be possible.
Conditions are emerging to foster this possibility, if Arenado waives his no-trade clause and if the Cardinals are willing to deal him. Normally, it’s not easy to move a position player with money attached at midseason, but contenders could be interested in acquiring the eight-time All-Star third baseman. The Cubs haven’t found a solution at third base, and the Yankees will soon try DJ LeMahieu in their ongoing attempt to fill the position. The Los Angeles Dodgers waited last season for Max Muncy to turn around a slow start, and he eventually did; this year, they’re waiting again.
Arenado, who killed a possible trade to the Houston Astros last winter, is owed about $24 million for the rest of this year, $27 million in 2026 ($5 million paid by the Rockies) and $15 million in 2027.
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