Gerrit Cole‘s season is over, now that he is headed for Tommy John surgery, and the New York Yankees will have to find a way to replicate the production of a Cy Young Award-winning pitcher, someone who is likely to one day make a speech on induction day in Cooperstown.

But this is not a case of a team being blindsided by an injury. Past injuries are the most predictive indicators for future injuries, and after Cole missed nearly the first three months of last season with nerve inflammation in his right elbow, the Yankees knew the chances of losing him were heightened. Their handling of his contract situation last fall was a strong indicator of the uncertainty around Cole.

The pitcher and his agent, Scott Boras, opted out of the last four years of his contract, while asking that the Yankees exercise a $36 million option for the 2029 season, effectively adding a fifth year to his four-year, $144 million deal. Owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman declined to do so, firmly holding the line, and days later, Cole returned to the Yankees without any augmentation of his contract. While the Yankees hoped Cole’s elbow would remain functional, as Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow did following a diagnosis of a partially torn ligament in 2014, they weren’t willing to bet another $36 million on it.

But that doesn’t help them very much right now, when they have lost two starting pitchers to significant arm injuries: Before Cole went down, Luis Gil — the American League Rookie of the Year last season — suffered a lat strain this spring that will keep him sidelined for much of the 2025 season. Max Fried, signed to a $218 million contract over the winter to improve a good rotation, will now be the de facto ace, in front of right-handers Clarke Schmidt and left-hander Carlos Rodon. A month ago, there was a lot of speculation about whether Marcus Stroman would be traded, given his standing as the sixth starter behind a five-man rotation, and now Stroman is needed as the No. 4 starter.

Cashman’s habit is to be patient — to weigh internal solutions before diving into another free agent signing or trade. When Cole was sidelined last spring, the Yankees thought Will Warren might step into his spot in the rotation, and instead, Gil surprisingly emerged to fill in for Cole and was one of the league’s best starting pitchers in the first half.

This year, Warren is having a very good spring, having allowed just two hits and a run in eight innings of work, with two walks and 11 strikeouts. Warren, an eighth-round pick out of Southeast Louisiana in 2021, is the front-runner to move into the Yankees’ rotation.

Just as the Yankees continue to weigh market options for hitting help while Giancarlo Stanton is attempting to work his way back from elbow trouble, they will consider free agent possibilities such as veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson. The Yankees paid for insurance on Cole’s contract, and so they will recoup some portion of the salary they owe him; typically, that rate is about 75%. His contract still counts against their competitive balance tax total, but the insurance money will significantly offset the luxury tax they will have to pay for the addition of any replacement: The Yankees are taxed dollar for dollar, 100%, for any additional player salaries they take on. A new $5 million player costs the Yankees $10 million.

Eventually, their best alternatives, if needed, could be through the trade market, and maybe that turns out to be the Miami Marlins‘ Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner who is back after an elbow reconstruction. Under the terms of a deal he signed with the Marlins early in his career, Alcantara is making $17.3 million this year and $17.3 million next season, and there is a $21 million option in his deal for 2027.

The Marlins are not expected to contend this year and have been in a cost-cutting mode since Peter Bendix took over the team’s baseball operations after the 2023 season. Last year, the Marlins demonstrated a willingness to deal very early in the season, when they swapped batting champion Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres in the first week of May.

But the price of a trade in April or May is usually set by the team dealing away a star, and the Yankees would have to pay a big price in prospects in the spring after a rough year for their farm system, which is generally regarded as thin by other teams and ranked No. 21 in Kiley McDaniel’s preseason system rankings. Additionally, the Yankees would presumably compete against other teams if and when the Marlins look to trade Alcantara, leaving them at the same disadvantage they faced when trying to pry Garrett Crochet away from the Chicago White Sox — before Chicago dealt him to the Boston Red Sox.

Over the course of the summer, Gil could return from the injured list, and other pitchers could emerge on the trade market as some teams drift out of contention. If the Toronto Blue Jays struggle in the first half, they could be a key source for all kinds of needs, including starting pitchers. Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer might all draw interest if Toronto ever looks to rebuild and, in the Yankees’ case, is willing to deal within the division.

One or more National League West teams could end up feeding the trade market. The Padres enter this season with high expectations after nearly knocking out the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer, but if San Diego drifts behind in the playoff race, it holds two of the best impending free agents, Dylan Cease and former Yankee Michael King. Similarly, the San Francisco Giants have veteran Robbie Ray, who is under contract for $25 million this year and next, and the Arizona Diamondbacks‘ Zac Gallen will become eligible for free agency in the fall.

Likewise, in the AL West, the Mariners have so far clung to their starting pitchers, like Luis Castillo, but that could change if Seattle sinks in the standings. The Astros demonstrated their willingness to be aggressive with players nearing free agency with their trade of outfielder Kyle Tucker, and if Houston hovers around .500, it could flip Framber Valdez into the market — with his years of postseason experience attractive to contenders.

The pitching market could be flush with options in a few months. And the Yankees might wait until then to make a move to cover for Cole’s absence.