2025 MLB predictions: From playoffs and World Series to MVPs and Cy Youngs
MLB’s regular season gets underway tomorrow with Opening Day baseball, so you know what that means — it’s time for season predictions!
There are lots of questions going into the 2025 season: Will the Dodgers repeat as World Series champions? What surprises will the expanded playoffs bring this year? How will Juan Soto look for the Mets — and how will the Yankees fare without him? And when will we see Shohei Ohtani reprise his two-way role on the mound?
No one can definitively know what’s in store for this season, but that doesn’t stop us from making our best guesses. We put 28 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to predict what will happen in baseball this year, from the wild-card contenders all the way up to the World Series champion, plus the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in both leagues.
For each category, we’ve asked a number of our voters to explain their picks. Did they hit the nail on the head or were they way off their mark? Only time can tell — and we’ll be circling back to these predictions come October to see how well — or poorly — we did.
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AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our pick: Boston Red Sox (13 votes)
Who else got votes? Baltimore Orioles (10), New York Yankees (3), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Tampa Bay Rays (1)
Boston is our voters’ favorite in the AL East. How can the Orioles beat out the Red Sox for the title? The Orioles will win the division because they will cobble together enough pitching to outlast the Red Sox and Yankees. They will win because their young players — most prominently Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser — will carry the offense through the regular season. Jackson Holliday, free of last year’s ridiculous expectations, will be more relaxed and productive. And here’s a wild card: Tomoyuki Sugano, signed out of Japan, will be a revelation in the starting rotation and present a reasonable facsimile of the departed Corbin Burnes. But temper the excitement: Boston is my pick to end up in the World Series. — Tim Keown
You were the only person to pick Toronto to win the division. Why are the Jays your choice? The Yankees and Orioles are already going to be several wins worse than last season because of all of those injuries they’ve already suffered this spring. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing for a new contract, Bo Bichette can’t possibly play as poorly as he did last season and Anthony Santander gives this lineup a nice power upgrade. If even only one of Max Scherzer and Jeff Hoffman stays healthy into September, we’re looking at a potential division winner here. Throw in a little extra support from an extra-motivated Canadian fan base? Head and heart unite behind the Blue Jays in 2025. — AJ Mass
AL Central
Our pick: Kansas City Royals (12 votes)
Who else got votes? Detroit Tigers (11), Minnesota Twins (4), Cleveland Guardians (1)
Make the case for the Royals to take home the division title. The Royals’ move to get Jonathan India will ripple through how their lineup is constructed. It’s a case of a player’s collective impact being more valuable than his individual one. India could hit leadoff and his improvement in the walks category allows other players to be slotted correctly in the lineup — though Kansas City still needs Hunter Renfroe and others to anchor the back end of the lineup.
Veteran pitchers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo know the pace of the season, and the Royals could be bolstered by the young arm depth they have in their system. Keep in mind that they were in first place on Aug. 27 last year and they still made the playoffs after losing seven in a row in September. They had room to slump and still get in. I see a better September and a team that now has a taste of the playoffs; but more importantly, I see an organization that is backing up the contract it gave Bobby Witt Jr. to make sure he will not be a star in a vacuum and that the team will be competitive every year and build internally with good players. Why? Because they already have their franchise player. — Doug Glanville
Make the case for the Tigers to take home the division title. The AL Central is winnable for any of the four teams that received votes, but my pick is Detroit. The Tigers have the best pitcher in the majors, Tarik Skubal, and a Rookie of the Year contender in pitcher Jackson Jobe. They are so unpredictable in their rotation, bullpen and lineup that matching up against them is going to be very difficult for opposing managers. And the Tigers’ manager, A.J. Hinch, is as good a manager as there is in baseball in handling the strategy of the game. The Tigers played exceptionally well the last six weeks of last year. It’s possible that that could continue. — Tim Kurkjian
AL West
Our pick: Texas Rangers (18 votes)
Who else got votes? Seattle Mariners (7), Houston Astros (3)
The Rangers are the overwhelming favorite to win the division. How do the Mariners beat them? By not having one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Mariners, between their elite pitching staff and stout defense, are going to excel in run prevention again. Their starting rotation might be the best in baseball. The issue, for years, has been the offense. Last season, they ranked 21st in runs scored. Seattle famously didn’t acquire a high-impact bat during the offseason. So, how are they going to flip the script? There are two reasons for hope:
1. Julio Rodriguez is due for a hot start. The star center fielder owns a .642 OPS in April/March, a .768 OPS in May and a .704 OPS in June in his three-year career. The Mariners gave him more at-bats in spring training in hopes of an early improvement. Rodriguez has also spoken highly of hitting coach Edgar Martinez, who was brought on board at the end of August last season.
2. That leads us to the second reason for optimism: The Mariners’ offense was significantly better after Dan Wilson replaced Scott Servais as manager and hired Martinez. Seattle averaged the third-most runs in baseball (5.8) and recorded the second-best OPS (.804) over the season’s final 34 games. Maybe it was coincidental. But there’s reason to believe a turnaround is possible. — Jorge Castillo
AL wild cards
Our picks: New York Yankees (21 votes), Houston Astros (15), Baltimore Orioles (13)
Who else got votes? Boston Red Sox (10), Seattle Mariners (6), Kansas City Royals (5), Detroit Tigers (5), Cleveland Guardians (3),Texas Rangers (3), Tampa Bay Rays (1), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Athletics (1)
Our voters view the Yankees and Astros as wild-card teams rather than division winners. Why do you think that is? The Yankees play in the game’s most tightly bunched division from top to bottom — with almost every projection system having the AL East winner and basement dweller separated by eight games or fewer — and losing their best pitcher (Gerrit Cole) after seeing their best hitter from 2024 depart (Soto) puts them in a perilous spot. The Yankees badly need to add upper-tier pitching reinforcements and, as the season dawns, have given no indication they’ll do so.
The Astros, meanwhile, lost key hitting contributors in Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, are taking some real chances with their defensive alignment (Jose Altuve in left field?!) and no longer have quite the pitching depth that they once did. It brings them back toward an AL West pack that has solid competitors in the Rangers and Mariners and potentially a surprise squad in the A’s. I personally think the Rangers rebound after their 2024 World Series hangover year. — Tristan Cockcroft
You were the lone voter to choose the A’s to make the postseason as a wild-card team. How do they get there? The AL West feels a little wide open, doesn’t it? So does the entire AL, for that matter. That’s not to say the A’s are going to win 95 games and get a first-round bye, but if things fall right, I believe they can sneak in. It starts with a solid offense that ranked eighth in OPS during the second half of last season. That didn’t feel like a fluke — not when you have Brent Rooker and the emerging Lawrence Butler in the lineup. Both produced an OPS of .900 after the All-Star break (Butler was actually .898).
We all know the headlines the team garnered in the winter when they actually spent some capital on pitching, bringing in Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs. The A’s will hand the ball off to All-Star closer Mason Miller, so they’re going to win a lot of tight games. And all signs point to the group in the clubhouse embracing the move to Sacramento. If they can create a bit of a home-field advantage, watch out for the A’s — they might surprise everyone. — Jesse Rogers
AL champion
Our pick: Boston Red Sox (10 votes)
Who else got votes? Baltimore Orioles (7), Texas Rangers (7), Seattle Mariners (2), Detroit Tigers (1), New York Yankees (1)
The Red Sox didn’t even make the playoffs last year — but this season, they’re our favorite to win the AL pennant. Why? Boston had three major needs going into the last offseason: a couple of frontline pitchers and an established right-handed hitter. The Red Sox went on to land Garrett Crochet, the most coveted lefty in the trade market; signed Walker Buehler, who threw the last pitch of last year’s World Series; and signed Alex Bregman, a two-time All-Star with a career adjusted OPS+ of 132. Their rotation is better, their defense is better and their lineup should be more balanced.
At the same time, they’re graduating three high-end prospects into the big leagues in Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony. This could be a dynamic team cast against a mediocre AL landscape, making the Red Sox stand out. — Buster Olney
You and a number of our other voters are predicting a bounce-back for the Rangers this year. How do you think they get back to the ALCS? When the Rangers won the World Series in 2023, they had a devastating offensive team. Last year, so many of their best hitters either got hurt or didn’t perform up to expectations. There’s no way that’s going to happen again. And outfielder Wyatt Langford, who’s entering his second season, will be a star before long. The Rangers have pitching questions, as do most teams, but they should be able to maneuver through some of those issues. — Kurkjian
NL East
Our pick: Atlanta Braves (18 votes)
Who else got votes? Philadelphia Phillies (9), New York Mets (1)
Atlanta is once again the preseason division favorite. How can the Phillies beat out a fully healthy Braves squad? It’s mostly about starting pitching. I’m a big believer in what Cristopher Sanchez has done this spring — just look at his 29.2% K rate. If he has truly elevated his skillset to at least Aaron Nola‘s tier, if not a half-step behind Zack Wheeler‘s, and Jesus Luzardo can stay healthy as well as pitch the way he did in 2023, then the Phillies’ rotation isn’t simply as good as the Braves’ … it’s a clear step better. Yes, yes, the Braves have all of those bad-luck injury rebound candidates to potentially elevate their win total, but the Phillies did have six wins on them in the 2024 standings and have every bit as tantalizing a 2025 ceiling. — Cockcroft
Despite landing Juan Soto this offseason, you were the only person to pick the Mets to win the NL East. Explain your reasoning. The Braves are a better team on paper, especially given the Mets’ recent run of injuries, but I think New York’s willingness to spend and its depth — particularly of prospects in the upper minors — are being underrated as solutions to many of those problems. Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Ronny Mauricio, Ryan Clifford, Drew Gilbert and Jett Williams are all position player candidates. Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Blade Tidwell are young pitchers lingering in the upper minors. Only two or three players need to play better than expected in addition to the widely expected breakout from Clay Holmes to bridge that gap. — Kiley McDaniel
NL Central
Our pick: Chicago Cubs (15 votes)
Who else got votes? Milwaukee Brewers (8), Cincinnati Reds (5)
The Cubs are the favorite to win the NL Central, despite not having made the playoffs in a full season since 2018. What makes this year different? In going 83-79 the past two seasons, the Cubs lacked a middle-of-the-order hitter to anchor the lineup. Now they have Kyle Tucker, one of the best all-around players in the majors. Tucker, who was having his best season in 2024 before fracturing his shin, gives the Cubs their best offensive player since Kris Bryant during his MVP season in 2016. Rookie Matt Shaw also projects as a significant upgrade at third base (Cubs third basemen hit .210 last season) and the pitching staff is deeper. Throw in some Pythagorean improvement — the Cubs were seven wins worse than expected in 2023 and five worse in 2024 — and the arrows point to a division title. — David Schoenfield
Why is Milwaukee still your pick to win the division even with all the support for Chicago? Because the difference between the two talentwise is pretty negligible and I like teams that have won recently. It’s true the Brewers did not spend any money this winter and were raided in free agency. It’s also true that Jackson Chourio is on the verge of becoming one of the best players in baseball and the Brewers’ farm system consistently produces quality big leaguers — enough to send them to the postseason five times in the past six full seasons. The Cubs are better on paper, sure, but they haven’t played as much postseason baseball recently. That said, would it surprise me if the Cubs won the division? Not at all, because it’s the NL Central, and just about anything can happen. — Jeff Passan
NL West
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (28 votes)
Every single voter chose the Dodgers to win the division. Is their title inevitable? Never use the word inevitable when it comes to baseball but GM Andrew Friedman has done the best possible job of fortifying his team for another seven-month grind. Because of this, the Dodgers’ chances of not just another division title but a repeat World Series title are as good as any championship team since the early 2000s. The moment I picked them to repeat was the day they signed reliever Kirby Yates. It came just days after they grabbed Tanner Scott to close games. Signing the top arm in the market and then arguably the next best one is all anyone should know about L.A. This team has depth and redundancy all over the field. It’ll be enough to win the division, and the Fall Classic, again. — Rogers
NL wild cards
Our picks: Arizona Diamondbacks (20 votes), New York Mets (19), Philadelphia Phillies (18)
Who else got votes? San Diego Padres (11), Atlanta Braves (10), Milwaukee Brewers (3), Chicago Cubs (1), Pittsburgh Pirates (1), Cincinnati Reds (1)
You picked all three of the wild-card teams that received the most votes. Why will this be the NL wild-card field? The NL looks extremely top heavy this season, with a clear-cut top five. The Dodgers are heavy favorites to win it all, of course, and while the Braves face a tough three-way battle in the NL East, they are still running well over 50-50 in my projections to win that division. Meanwhile, the NL Central very much looks like a one-playoff-berth division. So that leaves the Phillies, Mets, Diamondbacks and Padres to duke it out for the three wild-card slots, with the last spot coming down to the latter pair. Right now, I just think the Diamondbacks are deeper and better balanced than the Padres. I see all of this with extreme clarity which, in my experience, means all of this will be completely scrambled by Memorial Day. — Bradford Doolittle
It seems as if the Padres’ only route to the postseason is through the wild card — and our voters had them just missing the cut. How can San Diego replace one of the favored teams? The well-run Padres still boast plenty of talent to win 90 games again, led by multiple aces topping the rotation (Michael King and Dylan Cease), a strong, deep bullpen (watch Jeremiah Estrada) and an underrated lineup that was among the top 10 in runs scored last season. The Padres did lose some key players — but most teams do. Still, center fielder Jackson Merrill can keep improving, as can new veteran right-hander Nick Pivetta. Don’t worry about left field, because prospect Tirso Ornelas will be a star by midseason. These Padres are good enough to make their fourth playoff appearance in six seasons. — Eric Karabell
Cincinnati received five division title votes but just your one wild-card vote in a super packed NL field. How do you think the Reds can disrupt the wild-card race? Truth be told, I’m probably rooting for this story just as much as I think it will happen. Terry Francona’s return to the dugout is something to be celebrated and understood as simply a major upgrade at manager. Add to that the fact that Elly De La Cruz has had a full offseason to understand his potential, alongside the hopeful efforts of fireballer Hunter Greene on the mound and the Reds are, at the very least, going to be extremely fun to watch, never mind their actual success. — Clinton Yates
NL champion
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (21 votes)
Who else got votes? Philadelphia Phillies (3), Atlanta Braves (3), Arizona Diamondbacks (1)
Make a case for how the Phillies can beat out the Dodgers. With right-handers Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and left-handers Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo, the Phillies can win a playoff series against any team, including the mighty Dodgers, who, before 2024, hadn’t had much playoff success. The key is for the Phillies to score runs in October, but their lack of production is why they’ve lost in recent seasons. Who knows which Dodgers will even be on the mound then? Los Angeles has excellent pitching, but it is far from reliable. Every rotation member boasts recent injury woes. This might be a regular-season dynasty — the Dodgers won only one playoff game during 2022-23. Any team can beat them in October. — Karabell
Make a case for how the Braves can beat out the Dodgers. The Braves aren’t as talented as the Dodgers, but they’re next on the list. In a vacuum, their 89-win season followed by a wild-card-round exit in 2024 was disappointing. But reaching that point was one of the most impressive results of the year in baseball given Atlanta’s dreadful injury luck. Most teams would’ve folded after losing their best position player (Ronald Acuña Jr.) and best starting pitcher (Spencer Strider). That didn’t happen in Atlanta. If Acuña and Strider return as expected and the Braves avoid terrible injury luck elsewhere, they should be right there in October — and anything can happen in October. — Castillo
World Series champion
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (20 votes)
Who else got votes? Philadelphia Phillies (3), Atlanta Braves (2), Boston Red Sox (1), Texas Rangers (1), Seattle Mariners (1)
Our voters are predicting the Dodgers win the first back-to-back World Series titles since the Yankees won three in a row in 1998-2000. How can L.A. do it? First and foremost, the Dodgers need health; they can’t possibly thrive in October with as many injuries as they absorbed last year, particularly to their starting pitchers. They boast an incredibly deep lineup, but they need their three best hitters — Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman — to continue to produce like stars. They have the makings of quite possibly the best collection of starting pitchers in the sport, but that group is exceedingly volatile, which means that among the three more certain arms — Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow — perhaps two need to be dominant for a full season. The defense has some deficiencies, and Betts being a serviceable shortstop is especially crucial.
Just as important, they also need a little luck. There’s a reason it’s been a quarter century since a baseball team repeated — this sport is incredibly unpredictable, especially when sample sizes are whittled down in October. The Dodgers are no stranger to that. But they’re as well-equipped to repeat as any team has been this century. — Alden Gonzalez
You picked a rematch of the 2023 World Series between the Rangers and Diamondbacks, with Texas prevailing again. Explain your reasoning. The Rangers’ lineup is one of baseball’s likeliest bounce-back units, having scored 198 fewer runs in 2024 than it did in the World Series-winning season. That team won the title despite only 30⅓ innings from Jacob deGrom, whose stuff has popped this spring in the wake of his second Tommy John surgery.
The Diamondbacks led the majors in runs scored last season and added, conservatively, a top-10 starter in Corbin Burnes to an already-stacked rotation. And while the Dodgers will overwhelm everyone during the regular season, Arizona can set its sights on a potential rematch of the 2023 NLDS in which it swept the 100-win Dodgers out of the postseason. — Paul Hembekides
AL MVP
Our pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (14 votes)
Who else got votes? Aaron Judge (3), Gunnar Henderson (3), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3), Alex Bregman (2), Yordan Alvarez (1), Brent Rooker (1), Julio Rodriguez (1)
There was a nice mix of votes for a variety of players, but Witt is the favorite among our voters. Why is he your pick for MVP? If we set aside certain two-way players, Witt might already be the best overall player in the game. Even if he doesn’t repeat his .332 average/.354 BABIP breakouts from 2024, his overall range of skills is good enough to get him at least 7-to-8 WAR. He’s also more durable than Judge, whom Witt finished second to in the MVP race last season.
More than anything though: Witt doesn’t turn 25 years old until June. He’s not only still on the ascension in terms of the aging curve, but he just seems like a player driven to shore up his weaknesses. Eventually, he won’t have any left. No player in baseball right now means more to his franchise than Witt does to the Royals. — Doolittle
AL Rookie of the Year
Our pick: Jackson Jobe (9 votes)
Who else got votes? Kristian Campbell (5), Cam Smith (3), Jacob Wilson (3), Jasson Dominguez (3), Coby Mayo (2), Roman Anthony (2), Tomoyuki Sugano (1)
So many different players received votes for Rookie of the Year. Why is that — and why was your pick Anthony? There isn’t really a clear potential star that’s big league ready being handed an Opening Day starting spot with plenty of slack for a slow start, though Campbell would be the closest to that. With Anthony and Mayer also circling, and Boston having a pretty good lineup, there might be room for only one of those three to really take the reins of the Rookie of the Year race.
Smith hasn’t played much in pro ball yet, Wilson has limited upside, Jobe has the concerns that come with any pitcher, Dominguez has had mixed luck and health over the past few years, the Rays are not quick to call up prospects (Chandler Simpson and Carson Williams are of interest) and the Rangers’ injuries mean Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter are both in the rotation now to split votes. Anthony is the best prospect of that group and I think he’ll get a chance to succeed at the major league level at some point in the first half. — McDaniel
AL Cy Young
Our pick: Tarik Skubal (12 votes)
Who else got votes? Garrett Crochet (9), Cole Ragans (3), Logan Gilbert (3), Max Fried (1)
Why do you think that Skubal will win back-to-back Cy Young honors? No AL pitcher has repeated as a Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 2000, but Skubal was the easiest call of all the award picks for me — that’s how great he was in 2024, when he captured the pitching triple crown. Skubal has matured into a complete pitcher: He possesses one of the best left-handed fastballs in the game while deploying a five-pitch repertoire and averaging only 1.6 walks per nine innings. He also benefits from fewer Cy Young contenders in the AL compared to a loaded list of them in the NL. — Schoenfield
NL MVP
Our pick: Shohei Ohtani (19 votes)
Who else got votes? Fernando Tatis Jr. (3), Elly De La Cruz (2), Juan Soto (2), Trea Turner (1), Mookie Betts (1)
Ohtani will be working back toward a two-way role this season, yet he’s still our voters’ favorite to win a second consecutive MVP. Why? Ohtani didn’t need to pitch to become the NL MVP last year, when he was rehabbing his elbow while putting together the first 50-50 season in big league history. As tempting as it is to predict someone else to be MVP this season — Soto, anyone? — it just seems as if the award has become Ohtani’s to lose — probably for the next five years. He’ll pitch at some point this season, and whatever he brings to the mound for the Dodgers is just another ridiculous addendum to everything else he’s doing to separate himself from the field. — Keown
NL Rookie of the Year
Our pick: Dylan Crews (12 votes)
Who else got votes? Roki Sasaki (7), Matt Shaw (5), Bubba Chandler (3), Andrew Painter (1)
Why is Crews your NL Rookie of the Year pick? A major factor for fledgling award candidates is often about opportunity. Paul Skenes didn’t start last season in the big leagues (incredibly), and that might well have cost him the NL Cy Young Award.
With Crews, there is no doubt about how he’ll be handled this year: Having made his debut at the end of last season, he is going to get 600 plate appearances if he’s healthy, and if healthy, he’s going to do a ton of damage. The second pick in the 2023 draft hits for power and steals bases, and he’ll be an anchor in the Nationals’ up-and-coming core of young star prospects. — Olney
Why did you choose Sasaki? Sasaki is an easy pick here, as my No. 1 prospect in baseball who will open the season in the Dodgers’ rotation and has already impressed stateside. He could be a true ace at some point in 2025 but still has some work to do diversifying his arsenal. Crews and Shaw are leading candidates as position players with Opening Day spots in the lineup, but there are questions about their ceiling this season. Chandler and Drake Baldwin lurk as potential sleeper candidates. — McDaniel
NL Cy Young
Our pick: Paul Skenes (17 votes)
Who else got votes? Zack Wheeler (5), Blake Snell (3), Spencer Strider (2), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1)
Skenes won Rookie of the Year for his 2024 season and is our voters’ favorite to win Cy Young in his second year. What makes him so dominant? Skenes is as self-aware a 22-year-old baseball player as I’ve ever met, and that fastidiousness informs his approach to pitching. He has immense physical gifts: the 6-foot-6 height, the capacity for his body to gain strength and supercharge its output into the arm. Skenes is still relatively new to pitching, switching full time on the mound only three years ago, so there is more to learn — and he will do so with an open-mindedness to expanding his repertoire but a fealty to the foundational elements that brought him to this point.
In other words: The guy throws 100 mph, created one of the best pitches in the world in the splinker, added another changeup this winter and has a handful of spinny pitches with which he piles up strikeouts. There is no such thing as the perfect modern pitcher, but Skenes comes awfully close to what one might look like. — Passan
Many playoff races are coming right down to the wire. And while the three top teams in the Atlantic Division are expected to qualify for the postseason, the order in which they’ll finish remains a mystery.
What’s at stake? The winner of the division draws a first-round matchup against a wild-card team — likely the Ottawa Senators. The teams that finish second and third will square off with one another, with the No. 2 seed having home-ice advantage.
When Sunday’s games begin, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be in the No. 1 spot, with 92 points in the standings. The Florida Panthers are second, having earned 91 standings points in one fewer game (72) than the Tampa Bay Lightning (73).
By season’s end, if there is a tie in points, the first tiebreaker is regulation wins; currently, the Lightning hold the edge with 37, while the Leafs have 36 and the Panthers have 35.
Florida is the first of the three clubs in action next, as it will host the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, NHL Network). The Leafs continue their West Coast road trip by visiting the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+), while the Lightning play Tuesday at the New York Islanders.
The Panthers have two games remaining against the Leafs (Wednesday in Toronto, April 8 in Sunrise) and one against the Lightning (April 15 in Tampa Bay). Toronto plays its last regular-season game against Tampa Bay on April 9 in Central Florida.
Overall, the Leafs have the toughest remaining strength of schedule of the three teams (opposing win percentage of 51.3%, 11th toughest in the league); the Panthers are next (49.5%, 21st), and the Lightning have the easiest road (47.6%, 25th).
Stathletes projects the Lightning to have the highest chances of winning the division (44.5%), followed by the Panthers (33.9%) and Leafs (21.6%).
Is that how everything will play out? Stay tuned.
There are less than three weeks left until April 17, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 New York Rangers
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Sunday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers, 1 p.m. (NHL)
Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals, 3 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, 3 p.m.
Utah Hockey Club at Chicago Blackhawks, 4 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins, 5 p.m.
New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, 5 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks, 8 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m. (ESPN)
Saturday’s scoreboard
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Buffalo Sabres 4
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3
St. Louis Blues 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
New Jersey Devils 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Nashville Predators 1
Ottawa Senators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 1
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
New York Rangers 6, San Jose Sharks 1
Dallas Stars 5, Seattle Kraken 1
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 103.3
Next game: @ ANA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 103.6
Next game: vs. MTL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 94.5
Next game: @ PIT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: @ FLA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 28%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: @ STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2.3%
Tragic number: 16
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 76.5
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 75.2
Next game: @ WSH (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 10
Metro Division
Points: 103
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 117.3
Next game: vs. BUF (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 104.8
Next game: vs. NYI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 92.9
Next game: vs. MIN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 97.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 85.3
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 18.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: vs. NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 28.7%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 84.3
Next game: @ CAR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 24.7%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 76.5
Next game: vs. OTT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: vs. NSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 7
Central Division
Points: 104
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 116.8
Next game: vs. VAN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 100
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 112.3
Next game: @ SEA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 96.4
Next game: @ NJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 96.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 89.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: @ CHI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.6%
Tragic number: 8
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 69.6
Next game: @ PHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 57.3
Next game: vs. UTA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 110.1
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 101.4
Next game: vs. SJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 100.0
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 95.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 91.0
Next game: @ WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 6.4%
Tragic number: 13
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: @ COL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 10.8%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. TOR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 6
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: vs. DAL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 55.8
Next game: @ LA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
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David Schoenfield
Let’s get this out of the way, even if it’s way too early to even start thinking about it: Aaron Judge‘s chase for 63 is on.
In his second game of the regular season, Judge mashed three home runs, part of a franchise-record barrage of nine home runs belted by the New York Yankees in a 20-9 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers. Judge just missed a record-tying fourth home with a double off the right-field wall in the sixth inning and had another chance for a fourth home run facing position player Jake Bauers in the eighth inning but lined out to left field on a 55 mph curveball.
All in all, not a bad first Saturday of the season.
We should have known something unusual might happen. The game-time temperature at Yankee Stadium, on March 29 (!), was a balmy 78 degrees. It wasn’t a record-setting high — New York City hit 86 degrees on this date in 1945 — but the Yankees were intent on setting some records anyway.
Facing former Yankee Nestor Cortes, Paul Goldschmidt — leading off for the first time in his long career — hit a home run on the first pitch of the bottom of the first. Cody Bellinger then hit a home run on the second pitch of the inning. Judge swung at Cortes’ third pitch and destroyed a cutter 468 feet to left field, estimated exit velocity somewhere between 115 and a thousand mph. According to Statcast metrics, the home run had an expected batting average of 1.000 and was a home run in 30 out of 30 parks. Or 31 of 31 if you include the Grand Canyon.
The Yankees became the first team to hit home runs on the first three pitches they saw in a game. Austin Wells later added a fourth home run for the first four-homer inning in Yankees history.
In the understatement of the day, Judge said after the game, “Well, that was a fun inning.”
Judge and the Yankees were hardly done, however. In the third inning, facing Connor Thomas — who was making his major league debut — Judge belted a grand slam. As Tim Kurkjian pointed out on ESPN Radio, Hall of Famer Jim Palmer pitched his entire career without giving up a grand slam; Thomas allowed one in his first inning in the big leagues.
To be fair, Palmer never had to face Judge.
Judge’s third home run also came off Thomas. Judge would finish 4-for-6 with the double, three home runs, four runs and eight RBIs — his third career three-homer game and the first eight-RBI game for a Yankees player since Didi Gregorius in 2018. The fans responded with curtain calls and “M-V-P!” chants.
The Yankees would finish with nine home runs — just the third team in MLB history to hit that many. The Reds hit nine in a 1999 game against the Phillies (Yankees manager Aaron Boone happily pointed out he homered for the Reds in that game) while the Blue Jays own the record with a 10-homer game against the Orioles in 1987. Kurkjian covered that game when he was a beat writer in Baltimore, so he just missed witnessing the only two 10-homer games in MLB history.
As for Judge, it’s a booming start to the follow-up season after arguably the best year a right-handed batter ever had. He hit .322/.458/.701 with 58 home runs in 2024, with his 223 OPS+ the highest ever for a right-hander. And don’t forget — he did all that despite a slow start, hitting just .207 with six home runs through the end of April. Of course, he holds the American League record with his 62-homer season in 2022. With a hot start this month, maybe he can chase that mark from ahead of pace rather than from playing catch-up, as was the case last season, when he managed to make a good run at 62 until a 16-game homerless streak from late August into September.
Our last memory of Judge’s 2024 season, unfortunately, was his error in Game 5 of the World Series, when his dropped fly ball in center field led to the Dodgers rallying from a 5-0 deficit to clinch the World Series with a 7-6 victory. Judge also didn’t have a great postseason overall, hitting just .184 with three home runs in 14 games, whiffing 20 times. That lowered his career postseason mark to .205/.318/.450 and continued the questions of whether he can carry a team in October.
We’ll worry about that in six months. For one thing, the Yankees have to get back there, a task made more difficult with Gerrit Cole going down for the season and Luis Gil out for three months. New ace Max Fried also scuffled in his debut — despite a mountain of runs of support he couldn’t even finish five innings to get the win. The defense was sloppy with five errors, turning this game into a bit of a comedy of errors (the Yankees became just the second team in 50 years to both score 20 runs and make five errors).
One thing we learned though: Aaron Judge is still going to mash. For all the attention Shohei Ohtani has rightfully received all offseason and heading into 2025, Judge reminded us that he actually had the better offensive season in 2024. For all the preseason predictions that Bobby Witt Jr. will win the AL MVP Award in 2025, Judge reminded us that he’s a two-time MVP winner and, as wonderful as Witt was last season with 9.4 WAR, Judge was still the unanimous MVP selection.
The onslaught also showed that even minus Juan Soto, maybe this Yankees lineup will still score runs, at least as long as Judge remains healthy — and he’s averaged 142 games the last four seasons, only missing time with that toe injury in 2023. Boone said he wrestled all day yesterday with figuring out the lineup against the left-handed Cortes, settling on the unusual decision of Goldschmidt hitting leadoff. This after catcher Austin Wells hit leadoff on Opening Day against a right-handed starter. There are a lot of questions in New York’s lineup, from if the 37-year-old Goldschmidt can still produce to what rookie Jasson Dominguez will do to how much more Anthony Volpe and Wells will improve, but this may prove to be a better offense than many expect.
For now, the one certainty: Judge will be great. Sixty-three is in play.
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