The moves that rocked the MLB offseason – and what they mean for the 2025 season
The opening week of the 2025 MLB season is upon us — on the heels of a chaos-packed offseason.
Not long after the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrated their 2024 World Series title, they made the first big strike of the offseason, landing a two-time Cy Young winner — and that was just the start for Los Angeles. But the Dodgers weren’t the only ones keeping the hot stove warm in a winter that had a little bit of everything — from a $765 million contract to lure a superstar across New York City boroughs to a pair of aces signing record nine-figure deals. And the offseason drama continued well into spring training, with two top sluggers finally signing after camps opened.
Whether you are just realizing that Alex Bregman left Houston for the Boston Red Sox or the Dodgers signed … well, it felt like just about everyone — or you know all the moves that went down and still aren’t quite sure what to make of them, we’ve got you covered for Opening Day on Thursday.
ESPN baseball experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield break down the moves that rocked the offseason, what they mean for the teams that made them — and how they’ll shape the season ahead.
Dodgers get the offseason rolling — with a sign of what’s ahead
Date of the deal: Nov. 26 — Dodgers sign Snell to $182 million deal
What it means for the Dodgers: The Dodgers began the offseason with one clear target in mind — not Juan Soto, but Blake Snell. They had just won the World Series, but they did so despite an injury-ravaged starting rotation that required them to stage bullpen games on multiple occasions throughout October. They needed some certainty at the top of their pitching staff, and Snell, the two-time Cy Young Award winner they almost signed when his market collapsed last offseason, was seen as an ideal fit.
Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman engaged with Snell’s agent, Scott Boras, at the start of November, and it ultimately took some creativity to come together on a deal that satisfied both parties. They settled on a five-year, $182 million contract that included $66 million in deferred salary but also a $52 million signing bonus.
How it will shape the 2025 season: Snell spent the past two years pitching for the Dodgers’ biggest division rivals, dominating for the San Diego Padres in 2023 and, after an abbreviated spring training, putting together a masterful second half for the San Francisco Giants in 2024. Snell’s presence on the Dodgers, when coupled with another massive move later in the winter, would give them a rotation that is just about as dominant as their lineup — and it would set the tone for another blockbuster offseason.
Dominoes: Boras was coming off a rocky offseason in which four of his biggest clients — Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery — didn’t sign until well into spring training. Boras chalked it up to a bad market replete with unwilling spenders, and Snell’s signing showed that this offseason — another one in which Boras would represent some of the best players available — might be different. It also helped trigger a run of exorbitant starting-pitching contracts over the next three weeks. — Gonzalez
Giants finally get their big-money free agent
Date of the deal: Dec.7 — Adames joins Giants on 7-year deal
What it means for the Giants: The Giants began the offseason with a glaring need at shortstop, and Willy Adames was the best player available at that position. It was really that simple — and the Giants acted as such, chasing Adames aggressively and signing him before the start of baseball’s winter meetings.
The Adames signing represented the first major free agent addition under Buster Posey, the iconic Giants catcher who shockingly stepped in as the new president of baseball operations shortly after the 2024 regular season. Adames landed a seven-year, $182 million contract that set a new franchise record — breaking the $167 million extension Posey himself signed nearly a dozen years earlier.
How it will shape the 2025 season: The Giants had been having a tough time attracting star players to San Francisco. And though Adames isn’t as big a name as Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge or Bryce Harper — stars who recently spurned them to sign elsewhere — his arrival represents a shift in tone for a front office group that, under Posey, wants the Giants to get back to being the type of organization a community will rally around.
Dominoes: The New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays had all been linked, to varying degrees, to Adames. He represented a natural pivot if they could not land Juan Soto for those teams. But they needed to wait on Soto first. The Giants knew this. It triggered their aggression. And it eventually prompted the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays to get even more creative than they hoped. — Gonzalez
Soto joins the Mets for $765 million — yes, you heard that right: $765 million
Date of the deal: Dec. 8 — Soto joins Mets on 15-year deal
What it means for the Mets: The Mets’ interest in Juan Soto was a poorly kept secret — pursuing the superstar outfielder was central to their long-term plans since Steve Cohen hired David Stearns to run baseball operations in 2023. Landing him, however, was monumental for the franchise.
First, on the field, Soto is possibly the best hitter in the world. His consistency is unmatched. His floor sits stories above most of his peers’ ceilings. He will mash hitting behind Francisco Lindor in a lineup that should rank among baseball’s best.
But the move was about more than just Soto’s on-field impact. It signaled that the Mets really will be different with Cohen in control. Not only did the Mets sign the most sought-after free agent in over two decades to the richest contract in professional sports history (15 years, $765 million with the potential for the compensation to reach $805 million), they signed him away from the Yankees and beat them for his signature. The Yankees are still the top team in New York. But the Mets are ready to compete for championships and the city’s top spot.
How it will shape the 2025 season: The outlook in Queens changed as soon as Soto signed on the dotted line. A year ago, the Mets were projected as a fringe playoff team before exceeding expectations with a magical summer. Signing Soto meant just reaching the postseason is no longer enough — and that the Mets had more work to do.
Dominoes: Soto’s decision opened the offseason’s floodgates — for the four other finalists to land him and several other clubs. The Yankees were forced to turn to Plan B and beyond, prompting a series of moves in December. The Red Sox also spent money elsewhere and the Blue Jays tried to. The Dodgers, the fifth finalist for Soto … well, the Dodgers just kept spending money.
Beyond this winter, though, Soto’s record-setting contract set the market for future high-profile free agents in his age range. The first test case will be Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is expected to reach free agency next winter at 26 after turning down a $500 million extension offer (with deferrals) from the Blue Jays last month. — Castillo
Yankees respond to losing Soto with a $218 million ace signing
Date of the deal: Dec. 10 — Fried, Yankees reach 8-year, $218 million deal
What it means for the Yankees: The Yankees had money to spend and choices to make once Juan Soto spurned them for the Mets. The most obvious need was replacing Soto’s offensive production, but they opted to bolster their biggest strength for their first move of the post-Soto era by investing heavily in another frontline starter.
After missing out on Blake Snell and not fitting Corbin Burnes’ preference to join a club with spring training in Arizona, the Yankees set their sights on Max Fried. He became the third starter in the past six offseasons whom the Yankees have signed to a long-term deal after Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon.
The signing for eight years and $218 million gave New York arguably the best starting rotation in baseball — a fivesome rounded out by Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt. The starting rotation lifted the Yankees to the American League East title in 2024. They determined it would make for the best strategy moving forward for 2025 and beyond.
How it will shape the 2025 season: The starting rotation became more formidable with a two-time All-Star with a 3.07 career ERA across eight seasons. And the move proved even more crucial for 2025 than initially believed when Cole’s elbow started barking again. Losing Cole for the entire season means Fried will begin 2025 as the club’s No. 1 starter. Fried has dealt with forearm injuries the past two seasons. Staying healthy will be imperative for a rotation also without Gil for at least three months to start the season.
Dominoes: The Yankees beat out their rival Red Sox for Fried’s services, prompting Boston to turn to another ace in the trade market the very next day and leaving Burnes as the only ace-level starter left on the free agent market. But Fried doesn’t hit, and the Yankees needed to improve the lineup. They addressed that before the end of the month. — Castillo
Red Sox get an ace of their own in blockbuster trade with White Sox
Date of the deal: Dec. 11 — Boston lands Garrett Crochet for prospects
What it means for the Red Sox: The Red Sox haven’t really had an ace since Chris Sale blew out his elbow back in 2019, but after losing out on Snell and Fried, they used their prospect depth to acquire Garrett Crochet, coming off a big season for the White Sox.
The Boston rotation was pretty solid in 2024, ranking seventh in the majors in ERA, although it was just middle of the pack in innings (16th) and strikeout rate (15th). In his first season starting, Crochet made 32 starts and pitched 146 innings (the White Sox limited his innings the final two months) — and, most impressively, topped all pitchers with at least 100 innings by posting a 35.1% strikeout rate.
Crochet was the most in-demand non-free agent of the offseason — he’s under control for two more seasons and will make just $3.8 million in 2025 — and it cost the Red Sox a heavy price in Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery, their first-round picks in 2023 and 2024 respectively, plus two other prospects.
How it will shape the 2025 season: With Rafael Devers, 2024 breakout star Jarren Duran, last year’s impressive rookies Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, and an exciting group of prospects ready to help in outfielder Roman Anthony (ESPN’s No. 2 overall prospect), shortstop Marcelo Mayer (No. 4) and second baseman Kristian Campbell (No. 26), it was time for the Red Sox to make a push to return to the postseason for the first time since 2021. Maybe it’s a year early for all this talent to coalesce into a World Series contender, but Crochet improves those odds.
Dominoes: One key factor is that Crochet’s low salary allowed the Red Sox to make a couple of other moves. First, they would sign Walker Buehler for even more rotation depth. But an even bigger move would come right as spring training kicked off. — Schoenfield
Yankees continue their pitching push with trade for star closer
Date of the deal: Dec. 13 — Yankees acquire star closer Williams from Brewers
What it means for the Yankees: Clay Holmes was demoted from the closer role in September, so it wasn’t a surprise that the Yankees decided to let him walk in free agency. The thinking was the Yankees could hand the role to Luke Weaver, who sparkled closing games in September and October. But the Yankees aimed higher, acquiring Devin Williams, perhaps the best closer in baseball, from the Milwaukee Brewers for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin.
The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year, Williams is a two-time NL Reliever of the Year and a two-time All-Star. He owns a 1.83 career ERA and 68 career saves behind a screwball-changeup fusion known as The Airbender. He’s a clear upgrade. But he’s also under team control for just one more season, marking the second consecutive winter that the Yankees traded for a star one year from free agency.
How it will shape the 2025 season: Williams’ inclusion moved Weaver back to a multi-inning setup role after his breakout 2024 season — his first as a reliever. Fernando Cruz, acquired in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds for Jose Trevino later in the month, has the fourth-highest strikeout rate among relievers with at least 130 innings thrown since he debuted in 2022. With them in the back end, the Yankees’ bullpen should improve upon its 12th-ranked strikeout rate from last season.
Dominoes: Williams knew a trade was coming. He was just surprised that it was to the Yankees and not the Dodgers, who were in pursuit of the right-hander. Instead, the Yankees outbid Los Angeles, leaving the Dodgers to continue their search for bullpen help. They ultimately settled on signing the best reliever on the free agent market and a 2024 All-Star, continuing their offseason shopping spree. — Castillo
Cubs get their star hitter in blockbuster between contenders
Date of the deal: Dec. 13 — Cubs get Tucker from Astros
What it means for the Cubs: The Cubs needed to improve their power profile while servicing an apparent need to avoid long-term entanglements. In acquiring Kyle Tucker in advance of his walk year, they accomplish both. Chicago leveraged a moment of abundance at third base in its system to land Tucker, one of the game’s most potent left-handed sluggers and well-rounded outfielders. Tucker is an upgrade over soon-to-be-dealt Cody Bellinger, but when the latter was traded to the Yankees, it rendered the addition of Tucker more marginal than it had to be. That will be especially true if (when?) the Cubs don’t pony up to retain Tucker for the long term.
How it will shape the 2025 season: Chicago traded a serviceable starting third baseman (Isaac Paredes) and a rapidly rising third base prospect (Cam Smith) to snag Tucker. The outgoing package was made possible by the presence of another hot corner prospect — Matt Shaw — who opened the season as the regular at the position. Thus, the move needs two things to happen to achieve its short-term aim: Tucker to stay healthy, and Shaw to justify the Cubs’ faith.
Dominoes: The Tucker trade will be pushing over dominoes for some time. Bellinger’s departure was the start, which also led to low-level rumbling in Chicago over the Cubs’ often thrifty ways. Those rumbles grew louder when the Cubs were suitors for Alex Bregman, only to fall short. However, that failed pursuit kept the path clear for Shaw, who earned the third-base job during spring training. Those rumbles may turn into a full-blown uproar if the Cubs disappoint and Tucker signs elsewhere after the season — or is dealt at the trade deadline. — Doolittle
Cubs follow Tucker deal by sending a former MVP to the Yankees
Date of the deal: Dec. 17 — Cubs trade Bellinger to Yankees
What it means for the Yankees: With Juan Soto now with the Mets and Anthony Rizzo a free agent, the Yankees had holes to fill in the outfield and first base. Why not solve one of those with Cody Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP who can play both positions?
With Kyle Tucker in right, Pete Crow-Armstrong ready to take over in center and the less expensive Michael Busch at first base, the Cubs wanted to dump Bellinger’s $27.5 million salary. The Yankees were the perfect fit. They later signed Paul Goldschmidt to play first, so Bellinger will end up as the regular center fielder with Aaron Judge moving back to right field.
How it will shape the 2025 season: The Yankees knew they couldn’t replace Soto with one player, so they’re hoping they can replace his production with multiple players. Bellinger has never come close to his 2019 numbers since injuring his shoulder in the 2020 World Series, but he’s coming off back-to-back solid seasons with the Cubs (139 OPS+ in 2023, 111 in 2024 when he hit .266/.325/.426 with 18 home runs). He has morphed into a more contact-oriented hitter these days, but his pull-heavy approach could work well at Yankee Stadium. Goldschmidt, meanwhile, will try to rebound at age 37 from his worst offensive season (.245/.302/.414, 22 home runs).
Dominoes: With Bellinger and Goldschmidt, the Yankees were no longer a viable landing spot for Pete Alonso, eliminating a key bidder for the slugger’s services. Scott Boras had lost his leverage. And the Cubs? In subtracting Bellinger’s salary, perhaps they had room for another free agent with Alex Bregman looking like a potential fit. — Schoenfield
A $200 million ace joins … the Diamondbacks!?
Date of the deal: Dec. 28 — Arizona, Burnes finalize six-year deal
What it means for the Diamondbacks: As much as anything, Arizona’s second straight offseason investment in its starting rotation declares that even as the Diamondbacks share a division with baseball’s newest Evil Empire, the Snakes aren’t conceding anything to the high-dollar Dodgers.
After splurging for Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez last year, it would have been easy for Arizona to stand pat with its rotation depth chart, hoping for Montgomery to bounce back and E-Rod to be healthy. Instead, the addition of Corbin Burnes gives Arizona a rotation big three in Burnes, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly that can match anyone. It also makes the Diamondbacks a pickle to match up against in any October series — even one against the Dodgers.
How it will shape the 2025 season: Gallen and Kelly are healthy this spring after missing time in 2024, and if they can stay that way, this stat might be highly relevant: Those two and Burnes, between them, have averaged 176 innings over the past three years, and that number jumps to 189 if you remove Kelly’s 13-start 2024 campaign.
The addition of Burnes pushed everyone else down a slot, giving the Diamondbacks superior rotation depth, which in turn should help cover them against a lack of numbers in the middle and front of the bullpen. (The back is in good shape.) The defense behind the starters should incent the hurlers to be pitch efficient, as will an athletic, potent lineup.
Dominoes: For Arizona, the Burnes signing places the need to find a taker for Montgomery at the top of the to-do list, as he simply makes too much money to be just a rotation depth guy. The larger dominoes were felt elsewhere in the pitching market, as teams aching for Burnes’ ace production were left wanting. That begins with Burnes’ old team, Baltimore, which would likely rate as a solid favorite in the AL East had Burnes returned. But the Blue Jays, Giants and others were also left to look elsewhere for an impact addition. — Doolittle
Much-anticipated Sasaki sweepstakes has a Hollywood ending
Date of the deal: Jan. 17 — Japanese ace Sasaki says he’s joining Dodgers
What it means for the Dodgers: In some ways, the Dodgers had been building up to this moment — all the way back to the mid-1990s, when Hideo Nomo blazed a path for Japanese pitchers to the United States and turned a generation of children in his home country into Dodger fans. In the ensuing years, as Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, Yu Darvish and others starred elsewhere, the Dodgers’ influence in Japan began to fade. Then Shohei Ohtani signed with them on Dec. 11, 2023. Then Yoshinobu Yamamoto joined him weeks later. Then, powered in part by those two, the Dodgers won the World Series.
By the time Sasaki was posted in December of 2024, the Dodgers had once again established themselves as the predominant major league team of Japan. So much so that Sasaki chose them, too, even though their starting rotation was already quite full. He chose them mostly because he believed they gave him the best chance to develop, but the presence of Yamamoto and Ohtani, and the fact that the Dodgers carried such massive influence in his country, certainly helped.
How it will shape the 2025 season: In a span of 13 months, the Dodgers added Tyler Glasnow, Yamamoto, Snell and Sasaki to their rotation. To that group you can add Ohtani, who is expected to return as a two-way player this season. And Clayton Kershaw, who is on track to join the rotation around June. And a host of promising arms, including Dustin May. Add in their star-studded lineup, and what they would later add to their bullpen, and the Dodgers have put together one of the most talented rosters in baseball history.
Dominoes: The San Diego Padres and the Toronto Blue Jays emerged as the other two finalists for Sasaki, and his decision was a massive blow to both. To the Blue Jays, it meant coming up just short on another premier player after failed pursuits of Ohtani, Soto and Burnes, among others. The Padres had a hole in their rotation and were continuing to operate on a tight budget. In some ways, they had built their entire offseason around the prospect of landing Sasaki. Him choosing their biggest rival prompted them to instead sign Nick Pivetta. — Gonzalez
The Dodgers add top free agent reliever — and become baseball’s new Evil Empire?
Date of the deal: Jan. 19 — Dodgers land Scott for $72 million
What it means for the Dodgers: Landing Snell and Sasaki apparently wasn’t enough for one offseason: The Dodgers then decided to upgrade an already strong bullpen, signing Tanner Scott, arguably the top lefty reliever in the game over the past two seasons, to a four-year, $72 million contract.
Call it a baseball version of adding Kevin Durant to the Warriors: It seemed like piling on at this point (and especially so when the Dodgers then signed Kirby Yates, who held batters to a .113 average last season, the lowest ever for a pitcher with at least 50 innings).
It also seemed like the final exclamation point on the past two seasons: The Dodgers are officially baseball’s Evil Empire. Heck, after this signing, even Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said it is “difficult” for other teams to keep up with the Dodgers. Yes, that’s a bit like Darth Vader complaining about Voldemort. Welcome to baseball in 2025.
How it will shape the 2025 season: The Dodgers have always had good bullpens — fourth in ERA in 2024, third in 2023, second in 2022 and 2021 — but with Scott and Yates added to Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda and others, the pen appears deeper and better than ever. It makes it even easier for Dave Roberts to limit innings for his stellar rotation with the hope of keeping those starters healthy for October.
Dominoes: This was more about who didn’t land Scott. The Cubs were reportedly runners-up in the bidding with a four-year, $66 million offer, and a few days after the Scott signing they traded for former Astros closer Ryan Pressly. The Blue Jays pivoted and signed Max Scherzer instead. The Orioles signed Andrew Kittredge when they realized they weren’t going to land Scott. — Schoenfield
After monthslong standoff, a Mets icon returns to Queens
Date of the deal: Feb. 5 — Alonso, Mets agree to 2-year deal
What it means for the Mets: The Mets might have won the offseason by signing Juan Soto, but Pete Alonso’s free agency hung over Queens for the rest of the winter. Alonso, on paper, made sense for the 2025 Mets. He was a right-handed power bat to protect Soto. He was an adored homegrown player. But the 30-year-old first baseman wanted more than the Mets were willing to offer and the negotiations turned unusually public — and ugly — when owner Steve Cohen expressed his frustration during a fan event in January. A breakup seemed possible. The Mets signaled they were ready to move on. Alonso talked with other teams in search of a long-term contract. But, after a face-to-face meeting with Cohen and David Stearns in Tampa, the two sides agreed on a two-year, $54 million contract with an opt-out after this season the week before pitchers and catchers reported for spring training.
The reunion elevated the Mets to one of the best lineups in baseball, featuring a 1 through 5 of Francisco Lindor, Soto, Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos that should wreak havoc on pitchers when healthy.
How it will shape the 2025 season: Signing Soto was significant, but more was needed to compete in a loaded National League East.
The Phillies, the defending division champs, have one of the best rotations in baseball to complement a veteran, battle-tested, star-studded lineup. The Braves, the division champs the previous six seasons, should rebound from a nightmare, injury-riddled season in which they still managed to reach the postseason as a wild card.
Alonso, who is 27 home runs shy of becoming the franchise’s all-time leader, gives the Mets a lineup to compete with those contenders. The starting rotation, however, might be another matter.
Dominoes: If Alonso’s season goes as both sides hope, the first baseman will opt out of his contract and become a free agent again in search of a long-term deal next winter. But this past winter suggests finding one could be difficult.
Alonso, who will be the highest-paid first baseman in the majors this season with a $30 million salary, is one of baseball’s top sluggers. His 226 home runs are the second most in the sport since his debut in 2019. But the long-term contract he expected — one similar to, or even better than, the seven-year, $158 million extension he declined in 2023 — never materialized. Teams have seemingly decided slugging first basemen on the wrong side of 30 without much value on defense and on the basepaths aren’t worth that much. Alonso hopes that will change after a strong 2025 season.
The Mets, meanwhile, are expected to pursue Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next winter to replace Alonso if he reaches free agency and Alonso indeed opts out. — Castillo
Blue Jays get their big-name free agent in Soto, Ohtani, Roki … Anthony Santander
Date of the deal: Jan. 20 — Toronto, Santander reach $92 million deal
What it means for the Blue Jays: Over the past couple of years, the Blue Jays have been frequent headliners in the rumor mills around the top acquisition targets in the marketplace. Time after time, Toronto fell short in these pursuits. Then they inked Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million deal that also cost Toronto a compensatory draft pick because Santander had been saddled with a qualifying offer by his old team, Baltimore.
For the Blue Jays, it at least proves that they can still get someone to take their money, and if Toronto hadn’t been featured so prominently in the other quests, the addition of Santander wouldn’t feel so much like settling. Santander isn’t a perfect player, but he’s a legit, middle-of-the-order power hitter threat who has averaged 35 homers over the past three years. The Blue Jays didn’t get everything they wanted this winter, but in Santander, they did land a bona fide threat to slot behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the batting order.
How it will shape the 2025 season: With Guerrero’s future in Toronto in doubt, there’s a lot riding on the Blue Jays’ short-term fortunes. After leaning a little too far over to the defensive side when picking their ancillary position players the past few seasons, Santander will help turn the scoreboard and perhaps unlock Guerrero’s game even more. If so, it can only help the case Toronto will continue to make in attempting to keep Vlady for the long haul.
Dominoes: The relatively late date of Santander’s signing bolstered the Blue Jays’ offseason work considerably and still left them time to add more, which resulted in, among other things, the signing of Max Scherzer to the rotation. It also left other teams looking for a big outfield bat out in the cold, with the Royals, Angels, Red Sox and Tigers reportedly among them. –– Doolittle
Braves finally get in on the offseason fun
Date of the deal: Jan. 23 — Atlanta, Profar agree to 3-year deal
What it means for the Braves: The offseason had been distinctly silent for the Braves until Profar agreed to a three-year, $42 million deal in the latter part of January. If Profar, coming off an age-31 season that was easily the best of his career, can retain most of last season’s gains, he fills the one concerning spot in the potent Atlanta lineup. He would do so at salary level (a $14 million-per-season luxury tax number) that, for now, apparently keeps the Braves under the tax line, and even with a bit of room to make in-season adds.
How it will shape the 2025 season: When Ronald Acuna Jr. returns (soon) to regular duty, the Braves will have a fully stocked, powerhouse regular lineup and a quality bench. Profar not only completes the puzzle but will help bridge whatever gap remains between now and Acuna’s first game.
That said, Profar’s yearly OPS+ figures, beginning in 2018, are: 107, 91, 114, 83, 109, 81, 134. After signing Profar for three seasons, the Braves need him to break that pattern. If he can, the Braves’ lineup should have no holes.
Dominoes: Profar turned out to be the one multiyear free agent the Braves signed this winter. Every signing since has been a recognizable veteran on a minor league deal and spring training invite. For Atlanta, Profar was the lone domino.
The timing of his signing with Atlanta might prove to be painful for Profar’s old team in San Diego. The Padres never really filled the void opened by Profar’s departure. At the time he joined Atlanta, the Padres had not added a free agent on a big league deal, but they later added five. If the purse strings had been loosened just a little sooner, might Profar have been retained? — Doolittle
The offseason’s final star free agent lands in Boston
Date of the deal: Feb. 12 — Bregman signs with Red Sox
What it means for the Red Sox: The Red Sox have had three straight non-winning seasons — the first time that has happened since 1992-94. In signing Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million deal (with player opt-outs after 2025 and 2026), the Red Sox get a winning player to help reverse that trend, a former MVP runner-up who has averaged 4.5 WAR the past three seasons. They also get a hitter who has dominated at Fenway Park in his career, hitting .375/.490/.750 with seven home runs in 21 games.
They also created some internal strife, with Rafael Devers initially saying he would not be open to moving from third base to DH. Bregman, who won a Gold Glove in 2024, said he’d be willing to move to second base. A month later, Devers changed his stance and told reporters, “I’m good to do whatever they want me to do.”
Maybe Devers settles in at DH. Maybe Bregman ends up sliding back and forth. Maybe second-base prospect Kristian Campbell goes down to Triple-A and plays more outfield. No matter what, manager Alex Cora will have his work cut out keeping Devers happy and figuring out how and when to integrate all the young players into the lineup.
How it will shape the 2025 season: Bregman is coming off a .315 OBP, his worst since his rookie season, and 51 points below his career average. It remains to be seen whether he’s a major addition to the lineup or merely a solid contributor.
The Red Sox were third in the AL in runs in 2024, but if Bregman’s bat plays as hoped at Fenway and some of the young hitters improve, this team could lead the league in runs — and that could mean their first AL East title since the World Series championship season in 2018.
Dominoes: The Tigers and Cubs were other potential landing spots for Bregman, and both have intriguing rookie third basemen — Jace Jung in Detroit and Matt Shaw in Chicago. Shaw is the better prospect of the two (No. 23 overall, according to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel), although he has just 35 games above Double-A. Jung got some big league time in 2024, hitting .241/.362/.304 in 94 plate appearances after hitting .257/.377/.454 in Triple-A, but got sent down last week, so it looks like Detroit will open with a Zach McKinstry/Andy Ibanez platoon.
This year, the MLB All-Star Game isn’t just a collection of the game’s biggest stars, but a glimpse at baseball history in the making.
The 2025 Midsummer Classic marks the unofficial midway point of some of the greatest seasons the sport has ever seen.
Will Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh — aka the Big Dumper — set a new standard for slugging catchers? Will Shohei Ohtani score more runs in a season than any living person has ever seen? Will Aaron Judge … top Aaron Judge?
As Major League Baseball’s best convene in Atlanta, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down 11 players who are halfway to history. For each player, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo and Jesse Rogers asked one of their fellow All-Stars to weigh in on their accomplishments, as they get set to take the field together at Truist Park.
Cal Raleigh: Greatest season for a catcher — ever
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Well, we can add Home Run Derby champion to the list after Raleigh’s impressive showing Monday night. With 38 home runs through 96 team games, Raleigh is on pace for 64, which would break Judge’s American League record of 62 set in 2022. That’s the big one. There are a whole bunch of other records in play: most home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle, 54); most home runs by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 48); most multihomer games in a season (Raleigh has eight, the record is 11); and even highest catcher WAR in a season (Mike Piazza with 8.7 bWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 8.4; Buster Posey with 9.8 fWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 10.4). In other words, he could have the greatest season ever for a catcher.
How he’s doing it: Raleigh has always been better against right-handed pitching, but he has been absolutely crushing lefties in 2025, hitting .337/.385/.861 with 16 home runs in only 101 at-bats. Overall, he also has been much better against velocity. From 2022 to 2024, he slugged .418 against pitches 93 mph or faster; this year, he’s slugging .664. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “It’s wild. I mean, he’s having a crazy year and it’s awesome that he’s doing it from behind the plate. And what he’s doing is unbelievable. It’s hard to describe. It’s amazing to see.” — Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman
Aaron Judge: Most total bases since the Great Depression
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Judge closed out the first half with a quiet day against the Chicago Cubs but is still on pace to record 435 total bases this season. You could pick any one of a dozen categories in which Judge is on a historic pace, but this simple old-school measure will do just fine. The record is held by Babe Ruth (457 in 1921), so Judge would have to somehow pick up the pace to surpass that. But 435 would still be epic. The last player to reach that number was Jimmie Foxx in 1932.
How he’s doing it: Judge has become more aggressive at the plate without sacrificing contact or power. But it’s not only ball-in-play volume: He’s hitting an incredible .425 when getting the bat on the ball, which fuels his MLB-leading .355 batting average. That BABIP would be the third-highest ever if Judge maintained it, which obviously affects the total bases column. So too does Judge’s intentional walks pace (41). He’d be only the fourth player to top 40. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He started off hot this year, which normally in years past, he doesn’t start off hot like he did this year. And now you see it. He always finishes strong. I mean, I don’t know what he ends up with. Hopefully he hits like 70 homers. That’d be sick.” — New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon
Shohei Ohtani: One run scored for every game
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Although his pace has slowed a bit the past couple of weeks, Ohtani has scored 89 runs in 94 games, giving him a chance at a run scored per game. Ohtani had been on pace for 160 runs, which only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have done since 1900. He’s still on pace for 150 runs, which only Ted Williams and Jeff Bagwell have done since World War II. The last player with more runs scored than games played, with at least 100 games played: Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146 runs in 143 games). If that’s not enough to impress you, there is the chance for a second straight 50-homer season and a fourth career MVP award. If the latter happens, he’ll join Barry Bonds as the only player with more than three MVP awards.
How he’s doing it: It helps to be a leadoff man with power, as Ohtani leads the National League in both plate appearances and home runs. The first three months, Ohtani also had a great trio hitting behind him in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but his runs scored pace has dropped off in July as he has hit just .175, and Betts and Freeman have also slumped. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “As his teammate and fellow competitor, to see what he does on both sides of the field, it’s incredible. How much power he has as a hitter. He’s got 30-plus homers already at the break. He’s hitting .300 or whatever. And, yeah, he’s going out there on the mound and throwing 102, striking out the side. And these are his rehab games. He’s not even all the way back yet, full-go yet. It’s incredible to watch. Fortunately, I get to see all the work he puts in every day, which is really cool. It’s really special what he’s doing.” — Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith
Paul Skenes: Two sub-2.00 ERA seasons before turning 25
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skenes’ ERA at the break is an NL-best 2.01. His career mark is 1.98 over 43 starts. There is all kinds of history around this level of stifling run prevention. As it stands, Skenes joins Ed Walsh, Addie Joss and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown with at least 40 starts and a sub-2.00 career ERA in the AL or NL. If Skenes drops his 2025 number below 2.00, he’d be the 31st pitcher to have two or more sub-2.00 ERA seasons of at least 20 starts. Only two of those pitchers did it by age 23: Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach, both more than 100 years ago.
How he’s doing it: Skenes’ strikeout rate (9.7 per nine innings) is down 1.8 from last year. Yet his FIP (an NL-best 2.41) is actually better because of his league-best homer rate (0.4 per nine innings). Simply put, Skenes is learning how to manage the pure dominance of his arsenal, revving it up when needed. Skenes is not exactly pitching to contact — his stuff is just too good to not miss a lot of bats — but his pitch efficiency is better, and that’s getting him deeper into games. His style has evolved, but one big thing has remained steady: Nobody can score off him. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Obviously, the first thing that stands out is his stuff, right? And the second thing you look at is the composure. He’s kind of new to the league and just from watching some of his preparation, his composure on the mound, I feel like that’s what makes him successful. He started to add a couple of new pitches to his arsenal and it’s going to make him tougher. He’s got the military background, so I think that’s where he gets a lot of his discipline and everything from. He’s challenging, but it is fun to compete against him.” — St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan
Tarik Skubal: Top five strikeout-to-walk season of all time
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skubal has struck out 9.56 batters for every one he has walked. Only four qualifying pitchers have ever done better: Phil Hughes (11.63, 2014), Bret Saberhagen (11.00, 1994), Cliff Lee (10.28, 2010) and Curt Schilling (9.58, 2002). The leaderboard is dominated by wild-card era pitchers, with its heightened whiff rates. But according to FanGraphs’ plus-statistics, which compare numbers to league averages, Skubal’s index of 368 ranks 18th all time. His mastery works in any era.
How he’s doing it: Skubal has already had two games this season in which he has struck out 13 batters on fewer than 100 pitches. Simply put, his command keeps him in the zone more than any qualifying pitcher (49.7%, per FanGraphs). But it also allows him to pitch outside of it on his terms. To wit: Skubal also leads the majors in inducing swings on pitches out of the zone (37.2%). It’s a lethal combination. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Even on game days, he’s working before the game like he’s not pitching that day. Even on the off days, he’s at the field doing something. He does a whole routine. I faced him in spring training and was looking for one pitch — when that pitch came, I didn’t hit it. He knows what hitters are looking for.” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Javier Baez
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Before the 2023 season, there had been only four 40-homer/40-steal seasons in big league history, and the 40/50 club was memberless. Now Crow-Armstrong is on a 42-homer, 46-steal pace at the break. He could join Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 homers, 73 steals in 2023) and Shohei Ohtani (54 homers, 59 steals last season) in one or both clubs, giving us a three-year run of expanding membership. This one would be the most stunning of all. PCA entered the season with 10 homers, 29 steals and an 83 OPS+ in his career. His rise has been flat-out stunning.
How he’s doing it: The steals part of Crow-Armstrong’s game was already there, though he’s picked up the pace in 2025, already matching his 27 steals from last season. Any time he reaches safely, he’s a threat to take an extra base. That is unless he’s trotting around the bags after mashing yet another homer. Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball harder more often, getting more balls in the air and pulling it more frequently. All of this could explain an isolated power uptick, but nothing really can explain the degree to which PCA has lifted off. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a much better defender than me. He has a much better arm. He’s a really complete player. I don’t think I would have guessed he would have the power numbers he’s showing this year, but I guess people would have said that about me too. His ability to pull the ball in the air has been the difference for him, I think. He hits the ball so hard, all over the stadium.” — Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll
Junior Caminero: 40 home runs in age-21 season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: In his first full season in the majors, Caminero enters the All-Star break with 23 home runs in the 97 games the Tampa Bay Rays have played, giving him a season pace of 38. Though he turned 22 earlier this month, Caminero is in his age-21 season, so he can join Eddie Mathews (47 in 1953) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 in 2019) as the only players to reach 40 home runs at that age.
How he’s doing it: Caminero has the second-quickest bat in the majors via Statcast’s bat tracking measurements and he uses that bat speed to punish fastballs. He’s slugging .692 against four-seam fastballs — and .793 against four-seam fastballs 95-plus mph. He has received some help from the Rays’ temporary home stadium, George Steinbrenner Field, hitting .316 with 14 home runs at home. That’s worth noting as the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule through the end of August. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a special talent. I mean, his bat speed’s insane. I saw him in spring training [with the Rays], basically, but, yeah, he’s a special talent. Hard-working kid. I’m excited to watch him. They’re mature at-bats. He came up, I was hurt during the playoffs in ’23, and I thought he had some of the most mature, calm at-bats I’d seen for a young kid. Especially to come up in the playoffs, he didn’t let the situation get too big. I think he’s going to be here for a long time, a lot of years.” — San Diego Padres (and former Tampa Bay Rays) reliever Jason Adam
Corbin Carroll: 40 home runs, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: The third-year speedster is back in the All-Star Game after failing to be selected last year, and showing again why he’s one of the most exciting players in the majors. He has an outside shot at becoming the first player with 40 home runs, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical free-for-all, but it displays Carroll’s power, speed and hustle. Those odds were hurt when he sat out a couple of weeks because of a chip fracture in his left wrist, but in his first 79 games, he had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases. Even if those numbers are out of reach, he could be the third member of the 35/15/20 club, joining Chuck Klein and Willie Mays.
How he’s doing it: We mentioned hustle, because the triples are the key category here, and Carroll is the best triples hitter in the majors in a long time, hitting 10 as a rookie in 2023 and 14 in 2024, leading the NL both seasons. He also has tweaked his swing and is hitting the ball harder this season and hitting it more often in the air, so he should soar past his previous career high of 25 home runs. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “There is no hole, really. It’s hard to find new ways to get him out. He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s so quick and twitchy. I don’t get many fastballs by him.” — San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Witt’s doubles pace has ebbed a little, perhaps in part because some of the balls that were swelling his two-bagger column earlier have been leaving the yard of late. Still, Witt is on pace for 53 doubles, which would be the most by an American Leaguer in six years. That number would also challenge Hal McRae’s franchise record of 54 doubles set in 1977. Witt’s overall numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as last season, but he remains a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. Witt hasn’t gone on a true heater yet this season, but MLB pitchers beware: He has come out of the All-Star break in each of the past two seasons and gone on an extended tear.
How he’s doing it: Everything about Witt’s game — durability, aggressiveness, contact, swing plain, speed, home venue — suggests a player who is annually going to rank near the top of the charts in doubles, among many other categories. If only he didn’t hit so many triples and homers. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “I can’t get him out. It’s just a tough at-bat. And [he] plays the game really, really hard. Some of the stars look cool and play it a little bit slower. Bobby is always playing the game really hard. A single is a victory against him, but he’s going to turn it into a double most of the time.” — Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize
Kyle Tucker: 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 120 runs scored
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: With 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases and 68 runs scored, Tucker is showing Cubs fans the all-around brilliance that earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star selection. That puts him on pace to join the exclusive club of 30 homers, 40 stolen bases and 120 runs — which has only 11 members (with Bobby Bonds having done it twice). At a minimum, Tucker would love to join the 30/30 club, which he just missed in 2023 with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
How he’s doing it: Tucker’s career high in runs scored is 97, so joining the explosive Cubs offense has helped in that department. So has moving up in the lineup: He has mostly hit second for the Cubs after often hitting fifth for the Houston Astros (at least until last season). He has been a little more aggressive stealing bases to give him a shot at 40, and does it with great success, getting caught only once so far. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He stays in there against lefties, knows how to use the whole field. And knows what a strike is. He stays in the zone a long time. I got lucky this year. It was the one game he missed. He’s one of the tougher left-handed outs.” — Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore
Byron Buxton: The perfect stolen-base season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Buxton just hit for the cycle and — knock on wood — he has been healthy so far, so he’s on track for a career high in many categories, including his first 30-homer season. But the fun number: He’s 17-for-17 in stolen-base attempts. Only six players have swiped at least 20 bases in a season without getting caught, with Trea Turner’s 30-for-30 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 the single-season high.
How he’s doing it: Buxton has always been a terrific high percentage base stealer, including a 29-for-30 mark in 2017 and a 90% success rate in his career, but the surprising thing about his 2025 totals is perhaps that he’s even stealing bases at all, given all the injuries in his career. It would be easy for the Minnesota Twins to just shut him down on the basepaths — much like the Los Angeles Angels did years ago with Mike Trout — but the 31-year-old Buxton is running more than he has since he was 23. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and when he’s playing out there. I think the biggest thing I’ve noticed from him is that it seems like his internal clock is just at a pace this year. It’s not like it flashes where he’s going crazy and then he’s backing off. It’s consistent. It’s just that consistent heartbeat. It’s like he’s running a marathon at an insane pace. He’s going to run a sub-three-hour marathon or something. He’s cruising along and it’s just fun to watch him play.” — Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan
-
Bill Connelly
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike