Trash talk, bold bets and road trip tournaments: How a pickleball obsession spread through MLB
-
Jesse Rogers
WHEN THE LOS ANGELES Dodgers arrived at spring training, the big-spending, star-studded defending champions were the talk of the sport. But while the rest of baseball was discussing L.A.’s chances of a repeat, there was a more pressing topic at Camelback Ranch: pickleball.
Spurred on by manager Dave Roberts for weeks, a fierce one-on-one battle between assistant general manager Jeff Kingston and Triple-A manager Scott Hennessey was finally scheduled.
“It’s the most-hotly-talked-about topic in my seven years with the Dodgers,” pitching coach Mark Prior said.
Though perhaps without as much hype as the Kingston-Hennessey showdown, pickleball games have become the norm throughout baseball. The fast-growing sport is replacing basketball and even golf as the preferred off-day activity among front office members, coaches, umpires — and some players.
As pickleball has gained popularity in recent years, courts have sprung up throughout the country, giving those working in baseball convenient places to exercise and exert their competitive spirit no matter what city they are in. But some of the most heated matches take place before teams hit the road for the rigors of the regular season — with some even building courts at their spring training facilities throughout Arizona and Florida.
The Kingston vs. Hennessey clash, however, attracted so much attention that it was held off-site to accommodate all the onlookers. A large group of Dodgers personnel made the four-mile trek from the team’s spring training complex to Chicken N Pickle, a popular local eatery with courts. Some in attendance estimated 80 to 100 members of the organization were present that March day, including Roberts, Blake Snell, Mookie Betts, Miguel Rojas and other players.
“Hennessey is a self-proclaimed great pickleball player,” Roberts told ESPN. “When somebody is a self-advocate of themselves, I like to see it play out in competition. Word on the street was Jeff Kingston was a great pickleball player also.
“We had odds and a betting line.”
Some Dodgers players were looking for an edge as they walked into the event, asking: “Can we watch them warmup before we bet?”
Hennessey was so confident that he spotted Kingston five points. Matches are played up to 11, so the idea was to level the playing field for the Dodgers executive against the former minor league outfielder turned manager.
Roberts bought into Hennessey’s bravado, putting his money down on the favored Triple-A manager while president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman took the other side, betting on his underdog assistant GM.
At ESPN today, the story behind these vids, featuring the intros and final point of a fierce pickleball match between Dodgers exec Jeff Kingston and Triple-A manager Scott Hennessey. Dave Roberts bows down to the winner! pic.twitter.com/x9YjiOvA1L
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) April 17, 2025
“Stone-cold s— talker to the point where everyone assumed he was good if he’s this confident,” Kingston said of Hennessy in a phone interview. “He told Mookie to his face, ‘I’ll beat you tomorrow for $10k.'”
Then the unthinkable happened: Kingston won.
“The whole place is going crazy,” Kingston recalled with a laugh. “Henny was speechless.”
Roberts couldn’t believe he lost after spending weeks hyping the match.
“He took a lot of crap,” the Dodgers manager said. “Henny came in the next day and ate crow.”
PICKLEBALL PROVIDED AN opportunity to break up the monotony of the spring for the Dodgers, but for the Texas Rangers it became an essential component of their 2023 march to the organization’s first world championship.
The Rangers’ support staff is obsessed with the sport, even playing outdoors in 40-degree temperatures in Chicago early this season. The group, led by team physical therapist Regan Wong, has been at it for several years.
“Day 1 or 2 of a series, we’ll go find a court to play on,” Wong said. “Either on our own or we’ll mix with the locals. It’s a great way to stay active. There’s camaraderie. Teamwork. S— talking. It gets our juices going.”
Wong goes on apps to find courts in cities around the league, hoping they’re not taken during the limited window they have before heading to the ballpark. But things got a bit more superstitious in 2023 as Texas was gearing up for a postseason run.
“When we were in a really bad funk, one of our starting pitchers asked us, ‘Did you guys play today?'” Wong recalled. “And we actually didn’t. He said he thought that when we played pickle on the road, our winning percentage was really good.
“So we quickly went to the calendar and looked at our road series and sure enough, it was like a 90 percent [series] win percentage.”
While the Rangers were battling for the AL West crown, the team’s support staff was making sure it played pickleball in every road city down the stretch.
“But in this one city we didn’t,” Wong said. “In Seattle, we tried to go, but the locals ran it over, so we didn’t know how to get on the court.”
Texas lost three of four games to the Mariners and subsequently lost the division, settling for a wild-card berth. After that, pickleball became a nonnegotiable part of the schedule in October.
“We fly 1,100 miles across to Tampa,” Wong said. “Go to a workout. No plans to play because we’re trying to get ready for the postseason. That same starting pitcher asks us, ‘Did you play in L.A.?’ Yes, we did. ‘Did you play in Seattle?’ We did not. ‘Your fault. Where are you playing today?'”
“So we looked at each other and knew we had to play.”
Texas swept Tampa Bay then flew to Baltimore, where Wong and the rest of the staff found a place. The Rangers won the series in a three-game sweep and headed to Houston for the American League Championship Series.
“I think it was the Bumpy Pickle in Houston,” Wong said. “In fact, the orthopedic doctor of the Astros was on another court with his son.”
After a seven-game series win, the Rangers were taking their pickleball superstition all the way to the World Series. Luckily, just outside their hotel rooms at Arizona’s lavish Biltmore hotel there were pickleball courts awaiting them at the resort. Rumor has it that the noise from the balls being hit by other enthusiasts — right outside his window — even sent Rangers manager Bruce Bochy to the ballpark early one day.
“We had to check the box in each of the road cities,” Wong said. “I’m not saying that was the reason we came out on top, but we were a little superstitious.”
BECAUSE OF THE spirited nature of the sport, trash talk is a common theme among those who have adapted to pickleball culture. And in the hypercompetitive environment of professional sports, plenty of MLB teams have taken it to a new art.
There is perhaps no better example of that than the Milwaukee Brewers, who have built facilities, created an unofficial org chart title and even brought in outside help to up their games.
“We have two courts outside,” general manager Matt Arnold said. “[Infield coach] Matt Erickson is our VP of pickleball operations. We even had a pickleball professional come to camp and give some lessons. We had a couple players interested.”
The Brewers are one of several teams that keep regular power rankings to track their pickleball performances. Sources allowed ESPN to view Milwaukee’s latest rankings, which list VP of pickleball operations Erickson at No. 1. Arnold is right behind him on the chart, which included a scouting report breaking down the 46-year-old GM’s game: “High-level of paddle skill to both sides, savvy, psychological advantage over opponents, high motor, high intent, Larry Bird-type competitor.”
The whole ranking might be a bit biased though — Arnold is ahead of third-base coach Jason Layne, who sources familiar with their abilities claim is clearly better than his boss.
“It’s a little like the stock ticker,” Arnold said of his controversial place. “Up and down. I’m Bronny James. I’m really good in the G League but not so much in the show.”
At least his ranking is higher than special assistant Matt Klentak’s, whose scouting report simply says “tries hard” next to his name.
The Boston Red Sox, on the other hand, prefer tournament-style pickleball competitions to power rankings during their road trips. When pitching coach Andrew Bailey is finished poring over hitting reports for an upcoming series, he pulls out his phone to find a pickleball court then opens his laptop to create March Madness-style tournaments.
“I made it all on my computer,” he said. “The Baltimore City final. The Toronto World Cup. Day 2 of a series is a little more relaxed. Whoever won last is the No.1 seed for the next game.”
Manager Alex Cora was an occasional participant in Boston’s games before recently announcing his retirement from competition.
“I got hurt,” he said. “I’m done.”
The San Diego Padres take a combined approach to satisfy their pickleball needs, using power rankings and team tournaments to determine who is the best. The competition was heated between front office members and coaching staff vying to be crowned champion — before they had to take a hiatus because it got a little too heated.
“A spirited final and well-attended,” manager Mike Schildt said. “A fair amount of trash-talking. It’s a bunch of alphas going after it.
“I’m not going to lie to you. It got so competitive, we had to take a break.”
After being part of those battles during his time with the Padres, Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty has brought that mentality to Chicago over the past two years.
“You have golf and all these other things, but pickleball on the road, an hour a day, it’s intense,” Flaherty said. “On the road we’ll find a place. Sometimes we pay, sometimes they comp it.”
When the A’s moved from Oakland to Sacramento this season, their to-do list was packed with things to get ready for temporary life in a new city. One unexpected item: finding a local pickleball court. General manager David Forst is still scouting for new places to play to keep his weekly game going, even though the GM knows he is at a disadvantage lining up against two former major leaguers when they do take the court.
“[Assistant GM] Dan Feinstein and I have gotten into a game with [first-base coach] Bobby Crosby and [manager] Mark Kotsay,” Forst said. “They have 25 years of major league service on their side of the nets. And we have nothing.”
The norm across the sport is competition between members of the same organization, but some of MLB’s top front office decision-makers do play against each other and couldn’t wait to get their (mostly) playful shots in at fellow pickleball playing execs from other clubs. When asked who was the better player between Friedman or Arnold, White Sox general manager Chris Getz quipped, “I’m going with Friedman because he’s just a little closer to the ground.”
Even though Friedman is currently on the pickleball injured list, he chimed in with his own bold proclamation that he could still beat Arnold, his former Tampa Bay Rays colleague, while recovering from a torn meniscus.
“It takes four to five days to put Humpty Dumpty back together again,” Friedman said. “I can still take Arnold, though.”
JUST MOMENTS AFTER the New York Mets were eliminated from the postseason in October, designated hitter J.D. Martinez was asked what his immediate plans were.
“Pickleball,” he said.
Martinez hasn’t stopped playing, signing up with equipment company JOOLA as he potentially transitions to a life of pickleball instead of baseball.
“I see pickleball as a sport I’ll be involved in for the long run,” he said as part of a statement when he joined the company.
But as the sport has taken front offices and coaching staffs by storm, most players have been a little slower to get on board the pickleball train. Martinez and the Dodgers’ Betts are two players who pick up a paddle on a regular basis. Or at least Betts used to.
“I’m done,” he told ESPN. “I don’t play anymore. I got hooked on golf again. … I’m playing shortstop now. I don’t have time to be doing all that running and stuff.”
In fact, a few discussions with his boss might have convinced him to switch hobbies.
“We had many a conversation about it last spring,” Friedman said. “I don’t think it’s a great thing for the Dodgers’ ultimate success for a lot of guys to be playing pickleball.”
The injury factor is a concern for some players during the season as sprains and strains — along with the occasional fracture — are commonplace. Still, some teams, including the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cubs, have put up nets at spring training to let their players have fun while using the movements to improve baseball skills. Philadelphia broke out a modified version to help the team’s defensive performance during the spring of 2024, and Nick Castellanos was among those who became a fan of pickleball in the process.
The reaction among players who have tried it is pretty mixed.
“It’s one of the more fun sports to play,” Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene said. “Tork [Spencer Torkelson] and I have played. Tork is pretty good. I bet someone like Bobby Witt would be great.”
A quick survey inside the Cincinnati Reds clubhouse resulted in varying degrees of interest.
“It’s an older crowd, so not much risk of getting hurt,” reliever Scott Barlow said. “I like it. It’s only growing.”
Another reliever, Brent Suter, added: “Maybe after my career. I bet Elly [De La Cruz] would be good.”
Infielder Jeimer Candelario was asked if he’s picked up a pickleball paddle.
“What’s pickleball?” he responded.
So while you might not see your favorite MLB player taking the courts at a local park during their team’s next road trip, you could see the men calling balls and strikes — if you know where to look. Umpires have also embraced pickleball while on the road as much as anyone in the sport.
“Getting on a treadmill every day sucks,” umpire Vic Carapazza said. “Playing pickle for two hours feels like 30 minutes. And you’re having fun. Yeah, I’ve been to Central Park. I don’t announce I’m an umpire, of course.”
Carapazza sometimes plays with fellow umpire Chad Fairbanks, who loves it even more now that he got his son into it.
“At first he’s like, ‘Dad, I’m not playing pickleball, this is dumb,'” Fairbanks said. “He sees a bunch of middle-aged people playing.
“Now he’s addicted.”
Fairbanks’ assessment of his son’s interest sums up much of the feeling throughout MLB. Not everyone plays pickleball — but those who do are obsessed with it.
“We’ll play anytime in any city,” Wong said. “It’s so much fun.”
-
Bradford Doolittle
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.
Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
-
Bradford Doolittle
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.
Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
-
Dan Wetzel
Bill Belichick was presented the game ball Saturday following North Carolina’s 20-3 triumph over Charlotte. It marked his first victory as a collegiate coach after winning 333 games (playoffs included) in the NFL.
As good as the Tar Heels’ bounce-back performance must have felt, it’s certainly possible he enjoyed a different result from the weekend even more: Las Vegas 20, New England 13.
Belichick is an all-time great at two things: winning football games and carrying grudges to the pettiest of levels. One tends to fuel the other. Belichick is often at his best when he has some villain, real or imagined, to prove wrong.
It is why UNC fans should be encouraged that Belichick is still so dripping with anger against his old NFL franchise that he would resort to juvenile antics such as banning Patriots scouts from the Heels’ football building.
“It’s obvious I’m not welcome at their facility,” Belichick said Saturday. “So, they’re not welcome at ours.”
This, to be clear, is comically ridiculous. The easy joke, based on UNC’s 48-10 humiliation against TCU in the season opener, is that if Belichick really wanted to doom the Pats, he would get them to draft a bunch of his guys.
Really, though, it’s just another sign that Belichick has not forgiven New England owner Robert Kraft for their split following a 4-13 campaign in 2023. It’s possible that he blames some of the NFL’s lack of interest in hiring him to Kraft talking him down to fellow owners.
In fact, it is not obvious that Belichick is banned from the Patriots facility.
Current New England coach Mike Vrabel, a former player under Belichick, said Monday that Belichick is always welcome and pointed to Belichick’s presence at a June 2024 ceremony honoring Tom Brady.
“Since his departure as the head coach here, he’s been back,” Vrabel said. “I’ll leave it at that.”
UNC hired Belichick to breathe life into its often decent, but rarely great, program. In doing so, it is getting the full BB experience: the good, the bad, the soap opera. Maybe even a winning team.
There’ll be no dull moments. Carolina should understand this, though, about its new coach. Belichick tends to feed off feuds.
Belichick’s motivation to build the Patriots came, in part, to show he was more than Bill Parcells’ defensive coordinator. Battles with the league office over Spygate and Deflategate sharpened him to help win six Super Bowls.
He has always been about small gestures of defiance, cutting the sleeves off his sweatshirt after the NFL mandated coaches wear Reebok clothing on the sideline, for example. He’s counterculture, even as he became the culture — or unexpected fashion influencer.
His fight with Kraft is just the latest.
Beyond no longer being the Patriots coach, Belichick was often portrayed poorly in a 2024 Apple TV 10-part docuseries “The Dynasty,” the distribution rights of which are owned by Kraft, according to reporting by ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr. The team has denied any editorial influence over the project.
The response has been classic Belichick.
His autobiography “The Art of Winning” released last summer contained not a single mention of Kraft, his boss of 24 years. He and partner Jordon Hudson have also engaged in a trademark war with the Patriots over certain phrases (“Do Your Job,” for example) that the team currently owns. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, per reporting by ESPN’s Mike Rothstein, has refused Belichick’s requests.
Then there were Belichick’s comments to the Boston Globe about the positives of being a college coach.
“There’s no owner, there’s no owner’s son, there’s no cap, everything that goes with the marketing and everything else, which I’m all for that,” Belichick said. “But it’s way less of what it was at that level. …
“I’d say when we had our best years in New England, we had fewer people and more of a direct vision. And as that expanded, it became harder to be successful.”
The palace intrigue over the NFL’s greatest dynasty will rage for years, particularly involving the triumvirate of Belichick, Brady and Kraft, the owner who has never been shy about trying to grab some spotlight. It’s always interesting. Blame can shift because of perspective. Credit as well.
Just last week, Kraft, at least publicly, tried to offer an olive branch when he told WBZ-TV that he wanted a Belichick statue outside Gillette Stadium, alongside Brady’s.
“When Bill’s coaching career ends, we look forward to sitting down with him and having a statue made to be right next to Tommy,” Kraft said.
Apparently, Belichick was unmoved.
None of this has any obvious impact on winning the ACC, which is the goal of Belichick’s current job. That said, it doesn’t necessarily hurt the cause.
One of the risks in hiring a 73-year-old as a first-time college coach is that he would view the job as something to occupy his time, work with his kids and have some fun. That has mostly been the case for former NFL coaches landing in the NCAA, and it rarely works.
Belichick’s bitterness toward the Patriots to the extent that their scouts are barred from Chapel Hill is at least a sign of something different. Belichick knows the shots back at Foxborough don’t carry much weight if UNC is losing. Living well, after all, is the best revenge.
Belichick might be relentlessly focused on actually reaching the College Football Playoff … if only to show up Kraft.
Who cares about the motivation? The results are what matter.
And just imagine if, along the way, he learns to hate Duke or Dabo as much.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment11 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024